Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time again for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.


Previously:
Nomination Reaction
Documentary, Animated, and Live-Action Short
Documentary Feature
Animated Feature 
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Sound Mixing and Sound Editing
Makeup & Hairstyling 
Costume Design
Score and Song
Production Design
Cinematography
Film Editing
Adapted Screenplay
Original Screenplay
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Lead Actress
Lead Actor
Director
Best Picture

Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association  Award
SAG - Screen Actors Guild Award

A lot of category fraud has made the Supporting Actress race a lot harder to predict. I had a bunch of statistics ready for how often the Globes or SAG  or BAFTA awards match up with the Oscar, but those are basically useless this year. Occasionally, there's maybe one role that the groups disagree on the classification of. In 2002, the Golden Globes called Catherine Zeta Jones a lead in Chicago. The BAFTA called Rachel Weisz a lead for her role in The Constant Gardner in 2005. Most oddly, Kate Winslet was called a supporting actress by the SAG for The Reader before being called a lead actress by the Oscars in 2009. All of them went on to win Oscars but made prognostication difficult. In 2015, there's two actresses who have been jumping categories. Lead Actress has been decided, but Supporting Actress is up for debate.

Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Golden Globes - Lead Actress Drama - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actress - Winner
BAFTA - Lead Actress - Nominee
Vikander is absolutely a lead in The Danish Girl. Had she been sold that way, there's a very good chance she could've been a double nominee with that and Ex Machina in this spot. As is, she lost the BAFTA and Golden Globe because no one is beating Brie Larson (she'd probably be far behind Saoirse Ronan too). The SAG is the closest thing to resembling the Oscar nominees and Vikander won that. The SAG have called the last 6 winners here. That's encouraging.

Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
Golden Globes - Supporting Actress - Winner
SAG - Supporting Actress - Nominee
BAFTA - Supporting Actress - Winner
In Vikander's absence, Winslet has done well for herself. This is an actual supporting performance. There's a chance that Oscar voters are getting tired of category fraud too and reward Winslet instead. Winslet is a former, fairly recent winner (so there's no urgency), and category fraud has never bothered Oscar voters in the past. A Winslet win seems unlikely.

Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
Golden Globes - Supporting Actress - Nominee
BAFTA - Supporting Actress - Nominee
If there's a dark horse, it's Leigh. Christoph Waltz's trophies are evidence that Oscar voters love an actor delivering Tarantino dialogue. The thing is, Waltz had BAFTA and Golden Globe wins leading up to his Oscars. Leigh does not.

Rooney Mara (Carol)
Golden Globes - Lead Actress Drama - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actress - Nominee
BAFTA - Supporting Actress - Nominee
Mara isn't a supporting character either in Carol. She's the POV character and arguably more the lead than Blanchett is. She's been getting blocked out by Vikander all season though, even when moving down to supporting actress. If voters reward gaming the system, they're voting for Vikander, not Mara.

Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
SAG - Supporting Actress - Nominee
I love being able to say "Oscar Nominee Rachel McAdams". That'll have to be enough for now. She'd need a "Marcia Gay Harden in Pollack"-sized miracle to win this one*.

*Marcia Gay Harden won the Oscar for Support Actress in 2000 despite not even being nominated for a SAG, BAFTA, or Golden Globe.