Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time again for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Nomination Reaction
Documentary, Animated, and Live-Action Short
Documentary Feature
Animated Feature 
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Sound Mixing and Sound Editing
Makeup & Hairstyling 
Costume Design
Score and Song
Production Design
Cinematography
Film Editing
Adapted Screenplay
Original Screenplay
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Lead Actress
Lead Actor
Director
Best Picture

Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association  Award
SAG - Screen Actors Guild Award

The Oscar for Supporting Actor this year is almost the complete opposite of the Supporting Actress category. There's a little category jumping between lead and supporting going on, but the Oscars are the ones who got it right in this case. The winner seems obvious in the bigger picture, but it isn't reflected in the actual nominations and wins.

None of the groups or guilds are much more reliable a predictor than the other for this. The BAFTA has only matched the Oscar winner 8 times in the last two decades. It's called 7 of the last 9 though (the two it missed I think had eligibility timeline issues). While they don't match picks exactly, both the Golden Globes and SAG have picked 13 of the 20 winners.

Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Golden Globes - Supporting Actor - Winner
The last two times that the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and SAG award have gone to different actors, the actor who won the Golden Globe ended up getting the Oscar (2005 - George Clooney for Syriana, 2001 - Jim Broadbent for Iris). It's troubling that Stallone didn't get the SAG or BAFTA nominations. This really feels like one of those "lifetime achievement" Oscars though (ignoring the fact that he's made almost exclusively bad movies for the last three decades).

Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Golden Globes - Supporting Actor - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actor - Nominee
BAFTA - Supporting Actor - Winner
Rylance is a good choice but he isn't an exciting choice. He supports Tom Hanks effortlessly in Bridge of Spies and would be deserving of a win. The BAFTA win and SAG and Globe nominations show that he has a lot of support. It's been a while since we last had a winner here who earned it by underplaying things rather than stealing the spotlight.

Christian Bale (The Big Short)
Golden Globes - Lead Actor Comedy - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actor - Nominee
BAFTA - Supporting Actor - Nominee
Normally, I'd call him the favorite since the Oscar voters love him these days and I feel like people are looking for more places to award The Big Short. The lack of wins all-around gives me pause though.

Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
If voters really love The Revenant, Hardy could be part of a big night.

Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
BAFTA - Supporting Actor - Nominee
Spotlight is an ensemble in the truest sense. No one stands out enough to win. I'm amazed that Keaton and Ruffalo didn't end up cancelling each other out to begin with.