Oscar Predictions: Best Foreign Film

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time again for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Nomination Reaction
Documentary, Animated, and Live-Action Short
Documentary Feature
Animated Feature 
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Sound Mixing and Sound Editing
Makeup & Hairstyling 
Costume Design
Score and Song
Production Design
Cinematography
Film Editing
Adapted Screenplay
Original Screenplay
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Lead Actress
Lead Actor
Director
Best Picture

Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association  Award

Foreign Film is another category that's traditionally pretty tricky. There's only the Golden Globe and the BAFTA to use for guidance. The Globes historically are more reliable. Even that only means being 9 for the last 20, although that includes picking 4 of the last 5 winners. The BAFTA is much less useful, in part, because they work off a different timeline than the U.S. So nominees often get picked in different years. For example, this year's BAFTA winner, Wild Tales, was a nominee last year at the Oscars.

Son of Saul
Golden Globe - Foreign Film - Winner
Well, it's the only winner from either group that's nominated. That must count for something. I don't have many numbers to point to with this. It's mostly a feeling. This is the only movie I've heard mentioned from this category since the Oscars were announced. It has to do with the Holocaust too, which is like Oscar catnip.

Mustang
Golden Globe - Foreign Film - Nominee
The Oscar winner has at least been nominated for a Globe 14 of the last 20 years, making Mustang's nomination slightly valuable.

Theeb
BAFTA - Foreign Film - Nominee
I'd rather go with one precursor nomination over none. And, who knows? Wild Tales winning the BAFTA might be masking Theeb's strength.

Embrace Of The Serpent
Stands no chance but I like the title.

A War
Stands no chance and I like the title less.