Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time again for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.


Previously:
Nomination Reaction
Documentary, Animated, and Live-Action Short
Documentary Feature
Animated Feature 
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Sound Mixing and Sound Editing
Makeup & Hairstyling 
Costume Design
Score and Song
Production Design
Cinematography
Film Editing
Adapted Screenplay
Original Screenplay
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Lead Actress
Lead Actor
Director
Best Picture
Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
ACS - American Cinematographer Society Award

For all the movies I watch, I'm still a novice at identifying certain things. When trying to talk intelligently, I'm likely to use Production Design and Cinematography interchangeably. I know there's a difference and I could see it when I try, but most of the time, it ends up being like alligators and crocodiles: no one's going to call me on it unless they're showing off.

However, that works pretty well for my style of Oscar predictions. I'm a numbers guy at heart. I like to break things down to a formula whenever I can. Of course, something as subjective as an Oscar vote requires nuance since there's no absolutes. Cinematography, is one of those things where it's a guess. The guild, American Society of Cinematographers, have a shaky track record. They've matched the Oscar winner 11 of the last 20 times. The BAFTA is even less reliable, matching only 9 times. Let's give it a try though.

The Revenant
BAFTA - Cinematography - Winner
ASC - Cinematography - Winner
I know what you're thinking. "Winning both the BAFTA and the ASC award is big!" Yes, but it's not a lock. Since 1995, that's happened 10 times. 8 of those also got the Oscar. I still feel pretty good about The Revenant's chances - because, c'mon, look at it. What gives me pause is that I looked back at least 50 years. No one has ever won the award three times in a row, which is what Emmanuel Lubezki would do with another win (previously: 2013 - Gravity, 2014 - Birdman). That would be more of a concern if only the Cinematography branch voted on that winner. I don't think the Academy's voting body as a whole is that concerned with being repetitive here.

Mad Max: Fury Road
BAFTA - Cinematography - Nominee
ASC - Cinematography - Nominee
Is it just me, or has every technical award been a showdown between The Revenant and Fury Road? That's how it goes sometimes. I think much more of the visual flare in Fury Road is a credit to the Production Design*, but voters might think it's the cinematography. I certainly wouldn't mind any win that Fury Road could get.

*See. I did it again.

Carol
BAFTA - Cinematography - Nominee
ASC - Cinematography - Nominee
Here is a perfect example of a movie that I can't tell what to credit to cinematography vs. production design, or even costuming in some cases. It's a pretty movie, but it's a quiet one. The last movie to win this award without a nomination for Best Picture is Pan's Labyrinth in 2006. I don't think that it's a coincidence that it's been that long.

Sicario
BAFTA - Cinematography - Nominee
ASC - Cinematography - Nominee
It would be deserving. There's not nearly enough buzz about it for me to expect voters to remember it.

The Hateful Eight
20 of the last 20 Oscar winners were nominated for a BAFTA. 19 of the last 20 were nominated by the ASC. Thanks for playing Hateful Eight.