I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
Previously:
Nomination Reaction
Documentary, Animated, and Live-Action Short
Documentary Feature
Animated Feature
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Sound Mixing and Sound Editing
Makeup & Hairstyling
Costume Design
Score and Song
Production Design
Cinematography
Film Editing
Adapted Screenplay
Original Screenplay
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Lead Actress
Lead Actor
Director
Best Picture
Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Annie Awards - Awards for Animation
Best Documentary Short
Of all the categories, I might as well begin with the one that I'm going into with the least knowledge. I haven't seen any of these or heard much about any of them.
A Girl In The River: The Price of Forgiveness
Looking back, the Documentary Short category likes to go one of two ways. It goes to something tied to war or tragedy or the winner has a musical tie-in. There aren't any musical options, so I'm sticking with whichever one sounds the most depressing. This one is about honor killings in Pakistan. That sounds pretty grim.
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Following the same logic, this one is about the effect of Agent Orange use in Vietnam. That was a longer time ago than honor killings in Pakistan, so I'm giving A Girl in the River an edge.
Claude Lanzamann, Spctres of Shoah
More broadly, the past winners with a "musical tie-in" could maybe be stated as "character pieces about people on the fringe of fame". Well, Claude Lanzamann is a French director that most Americans have never heard of. That's close enough to the "fringe of fame". Perhaps the Academy doesn't vote outside of the industry, which would make this a slam dunk.
Last Day Of Freedom
A short documentary about a man dealing with his past crimes, mental health problems, and racial issues. The descriptions of it are a little vague. It's seems to have done well at assorted festivals. I'm just not seeing the hook.
Body Team 12
This is about a woman who works with the bodies of Ebola victims in Liberia. This sounds more clinical than emotional. Then again, this category is basically a roll of the die.
Best Live Action Short
For the first time ever, I've actually seen the live action short nominees. While there are no direct precursor awards for this, having a greater familiarity will certainly help.See my Short Reaction
Shock
This is the most complete story. It's deeply affecting in both its portrayal of a friendship and the tragedy of the situation in Kosovo in the 90s. I'd be quite surprised if the voters went in a different direction.
Day One
This is the best alternative. It has to do with modern military conflicts and even has the kind of bittersweet ending that couple appeal to voters.
Stutterer
This is my personal favorite. Basically, this wins if the voters go for something short and lighter. It's also entirely in English, which could help. I think there's some problems with the clarity of the story which could pose some problems though.
Everything Will Be OK
By far the longest of the short films. I think that will play against it. It definitely wore me down as I was watching it.
Ave Maria
This is a light, silly short. I don't know how much the order actually matters, but this was the first on the collection I watched (which I assume is the same order as on the Oscar screeners) and by far the easiest one to forget about.
Best Animated Short
Here we go. Finally a category with a little point of comparison. In this case though, it's the Annie Award for Animated Short, and it's pretty useless as an Oscar indicator. In the last 20 years, the Oscar winner has only even been nominated for the Annie 4 times. Bear Story
I'm going with my gut on this one. This is super short which benefits the animated shorts the most. The animation looks great and complex, so voters can feel like they are awarding a team that put in a lot of effort. The story of it, which I've dubbed "12 Years a Bear" has a lot of heart. I think this is a year when David can beat Goliath.
Sanjay's Super Team
Annie - Animated Short - Nominee
Goliath, of course, is the animated feature with a Big Six studio backing it. Perhaps the voters may sleepwalk through this category and go with the one they saw before The Good Dinosaur. I question that though. First of all, while the Annie Awards don't mean much, they have picked the Disney short the last three years (two of which then won the Oscar). Sanjay's Super Team lost, meaning there's some weakness there. Secondly, it's just not as clever as past Disney winners like Feast or Paperman. Still, it's a strong runner-up for the Oscar.
World Of Tomorrow
Annie - Animated Short - Winner
The Annie win can't be ignored. This is a weird little film though, with a messy style. I don't see it playing well with the less-adventurous Oscar voters.
We Can't Live Without Cosmos
It's a sweet story. The animation is pretty bland and the story drags some at the end. Personally, I liked it the most, but it's not flashy or polished enough to win.
Prologue
As the title suggests, this seems unfinished, which will turn a lot of people off. Also, it's incredibly violent, which is fine, but it's jarring when seen with the other nominees.
No comments:
Post a Comment