Oscar Predictions: Best Director

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time again for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Nomination Reaction
Documentary, Animated, and Live-Action Short
Documentary Feature
Animated Feature 
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Sound Mixing and Sound Editing
Makeup & Hairstyling 
Costume Design
Score and Song
Production Design
Cinematography
Film Editing
Adapted Screenplay
Original Screenplay
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Lead Actress
Lead Actor
Director
Best Picture

Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association  Award
DGA - Director's Guild of America

I'm afraid there's not much to say about the Directing award. Inarritu has swept the field this year. That doesn't make him a lock exactly. Ben Affleck also won the DGA, BAFTA, and Golden Globe in 2012. Then again, he wasn't even nominated for an Oscar. Ang Lee ended up with the Oscar in his absence. Speaking of Ang Lee. He was on the other side of that in 2000, winning everything but the Oscar, which went to Steven Soderbergh instead.
In case you were wondering though, the DGA award is by far the best indicator for the Oscar. They haven't missed nominating the eventual Oscar winner in the last 20 years. They've even picked 16 of the winners. The Golden Globes (10 of 20) and the BAFTA (7 of 20) aren't nearly as reliable. Power in numbers though.

Alejandro G. Inarritu (The Revenant) 
DGA - Director - Winner
BAFTA - Director - Winner
Golden Globes - Director - WinnerIt's hard to find anything working against him to win the Oscar for the second year in a row. Perhaps the thing that convinces me the most is the second DGA win in a row. You'd think they'd look the other way with legends like Ridley Scott and George Miller in the mix, but they didn't.

George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road) 
DGA - Director - Nominee
Golden Globes - Director - NomineeThe closest comparison I can find is one I've mentioned in an earlier post. It's rare that a director gets another Oscar nominated movie out this quickly, so I'm looking to the 2001 Lead Actor race instead. In 2000, Russell Crowe lost all the precursor awards for Gladiator but got the Oscar. The next year, he got all the precursor awards for A Beautiful Mind (kind of like a make-up call). The Academy didn't feel the need to give him a second Oscar in a row. That's the narrative George Miller will need. Inarritu got his Oscar last year. He's collecting the precursors he didn't get last year. This is the perfect opportunity to give Miller a much deserved Oscar.

Adam McKay (The Big Short) 
DGA - Director - Nominee
BAFTA - Director - NomineeI just think it would be fun to say "Remember that time the director of Step Brothers won an Oscar for directing?" That would be worth it.

Tom McCarthy (Spotlight) 
DGA - Director - Nominee
Golden Globes - Director - NomineeThere's no "story" to McCarthy managing to win. That means the only way he manages to win is if the Motion Picture Academy happens to be the only major group that legitimately thinks he did the best job.

Lenny Abrahamson (Room)
He'll have more in the future.