Oscar Predictions: Best Film Editing

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time again for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Nomination Reaction
Documentary, Animated, and Live-Action Short
Documentary Feature
Animated Feature 
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Sound Mixing and Sound Editing
Makeup & Hairstyling 
Costume Design
Score and Song
Production Design
Cinematography
Film Editing
Adapted Screenplay
Original Screenplay
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Lead Actress
Lead Actor
Director
Best Picture

Glossary:
Eddie -  American Cinema Editors Award
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

Ah, Film Editing. One of those things that when it's done right, you don't notice it at all. Sadly, last year saw the end of one of the great Oscar streaks when Birdman became the first movie to win Best Picture without an editing nomination since Ordinary People in 1980. That'll be more important later. For picking the Film Editing winner, it makes little difference.

There's two big precursor awards for Film Editing: The Eddy and the BAFTA award. The Eddy (American Cinema Editor Award) is broken up like the Golden Globes, between Comedy and Drama. Looking at the last 20 years, it's the best indicator of what movie will win the Oscar. In that time, it's picked 14 of the winners. All 20 years they at least nominated the movie that won. It's been rough though lately, as they've missed 3 of the last 4 years. The BAFTA, historically isn't very reliable. In the last 20 years, it's matched the Oscar winner only 8 times. It has at least nominated the eventual winner 19 of the last 20 years. The one exception was The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo in 2011. I won't hold that against them. Recently, the BAFTA award has been more reliable though, matching the Oscar winner 6 times in 8 years.

Mad Max: Fury Road
BAFTA - Film Editing - Winner
Eddie - Drama Film Editing - Winner
In the last 20 years, the BAFTA and Eddy awards have gone to the same movie 8 times. 7 of those times, the movie also won the Oscar. The one exception is in 2000, when Traffic won the Oscar over Gladiator.  Like this year, 2000 didn't have a locked-in overall winner going into the night. That's the only thing that worries me.

The Big Short
BAFTA - Film Editing - Nominee
Eddie - Comedy/Musical Film Editing - Winner
If I open the examination up to winning the BAFTA or an Eddy, that includes 16 of the last 20 Oscar winners for editing. That makes The Big Short a very viable contender. While I think most of the credit goes to the screenplay, it's not hard to believe that voters would confuse the zippy story with great editing too.

The Revenant
BAFTA - Film Editing - Nominee
Eddie - Drama Film Editing - Nominee
It has the dual nominations, which helps. I have to think that the long run time will work against the idea of editing. I could be wrong. It would take a Revenant sweep to see this happening.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Eddie - Drama Film Editing - Nominee
I'm shocked to see it get the nomination in the first place.

Spotlight
This nomination is only important to show broad support for it going into the Best Picture race. It's not in consideration to win this.