Oscar Predictions: Best Production Design

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time again for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Nomination Reaction
Documentary, Animated, and Live-Action Short
Documentary Feature
Animated Feature 
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Sound Mixing and Sound Editing
Makeup & Hairstyling 
Costume Design
Score and Song
Production Design
Cinematography
Film Editing
Adapted Screenplay
Original Screenplay
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Lead Actress
Lead Actor
Director
Best Picture

Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
ADG - Art Director's Guild Award

2015 is a weird year for the Oscars. I'll be mentioning this a lot. Be warned. There are so many awards that feel wide open. With the technical awards*, the big question is how lazy the voters will be. If they go with "very lazy", then The Revenant will dominate. If they aim for "lazy but interesting", perhaps Fury Road has a huge night. If they collectively try to pick the right winner in each category, then there will be some volatile spreading of the wealth.

Production Design is a good example of this dilemma. So, what can we look to to help sort this out? The BAFTA awards are always nice for how much the categories match up with what the Oscars award. In recent years, they've been very useful for Production Design. The BAFTAs have called the Oscar winner for 5 of the last 7 years and in the last 20 years, they've at least nominated the Oscar winner 18 times (the exceptions being in 2007 and 1995).

The other big precursor comes from the Art Designer's Guild. In the 19 years they've been giving out awards, they've always at least nominated the Oscar winner. That's gotten increasingly easier as they've divided this into three awards (Contemporary, Period, and Fantasy production design), meaning 15 nominees each year. Since adopting the three award structure in 2006, they are only 6/9 for calling the Oscar winner though.

The good news for prediction purposes is that normally the BAFTA and ADG are equally right or wrong. You have to go back to 2006 for the last time that only one of the two awarded the Oscar winner when the other did not.

*Btw, if you aren't sure what I mean by "technical awards", think of it like this: If you don't recognize and of the names of the nominees, it's probably a technical award.

Mad Max: Fury Road
BAFTA - Production Design - Winner
ADG - Fantasy Production Design - Winner
By all reasonable measures, Mad Max has this one locked up. I'm so baffled by the Oscar love for a movie like this that I have trouble believing voters won't back away from it at the last second. Hopefully that doesn't happen.

The Revenant
ADG - Period Production Design - Nominee
And I keep coming back to The Revenant.  Even though a couple other movies look better to win on paper, I keep thinking this is the more realistic Oscar pick. It wouldn't be a bad winner, just not the best winner.

Bridge of Spies
BAFTA - Production Design - Nominee
ADG - Period Production Design - Nominee
Perhaps the "steak and potatoes" Oscars voters will find themselves split between The Revenant and Bridge of Spies. Both appeal to that older white male demo that dominates the Oscar voting body.

The Danish Girl
ADG - Period Production Design - Nominee
Occasionally, Oscar voters confuse "production design" with "colorful dresses".

The Martian
BAFTA - Production Design - Nominee
ADG - Contemporary Production Design - Nominee
It's a double-nominee but I can't think of anyone coming out of The Martian saying "the production design in that was terrific". Granted, I can't think of anyone I know who would come out of a movie talking about production design for any movie. I probably wouldn't either...Good, I'm really invalidating my opinion.