Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time again for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Nomination Reaction
Documentary, Animated, and Live-Action Short
Documentary Feature
Animated Feature 
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Sound Mixing and Sound Editing
Makeup & Hairstyling 
Costume Design
Score and Song
Production Design
Cinematography
Film Editing
Adapted Screenplay
Original Screenplay
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Lead Actress
Lead Actor
Director
Best Picture

Glossary: 
Eddie -  American Cinema Editors Award
PGA - Producers Guild of America Award
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
DGA - Director's Guild of America

Saturday, I went over the Oscar Shorts. Those are the toughest to predict since there are almost no precursor awards. Documentary is perhaps the next most difficult. It's not for a lack of precursors though. I found four different guilds and groups with an award for documentary. A couple even go back pretty far. The problem is that until a couple years ago, there was virtually no overlap.
I'll start with the newest. The BAFTA award for Documentary has only been around for three years so far. In 2014 and 2012 they picked the Oscar winner. 2013's winner, 20 Feet From Stardom wasn't eligible until 2014 for the BAFTA, so I have to throw that year out. That makes the BAFTAs 2/2, 100% accurate. It's a small sample, I'll admit.
The PGA award is a solid indicator as well. This is the 9th year their category has been around. The Oscar winner has only been nominated by the PGA 4 times in the last 8 years. Except for 2007, when Sicko won the PGA, every time that an Oscar nominee won the PGA, it also won the Oscar.
Even though it's technically for editing, the Eddy award for a documentary is quite reliable, especially lately. It's picked the Oscar winner 9 times in the last two decades. It's at least nominated the eventual Oscar winner 12 of 20 times. The Eddys have matched the Oscar the last 3 years in particular: the only ones to get Twenty Feet From Stardom leading up to the Oscars. The last 8 times that only one documentary was nominated for an Eddy and an Oscar (which is the case this year as well), that movie ended up winning the Oscar. The one exception was Sicko again in 2007.
Even the DGA is pretty useful. While it's only matched the Oscar 4 times in the 20 years I went back, all 4 times were in the last 6 years.

Amy
Eddie - Edited Documentary - Winner
PGA - Documentary - Winner
BAFTA - Documentary – Winner
DGA - Nominee
Really, there's almost nothing going against Amy to win the Oscar. Losing the DGA is a very slight concern. But, of the five times that at least two of the groups agreed on a winner, it also won the Oscar. That fifth time? You guessed it: Sicko in 2007. Those four times have all been more recent though. When three groups have agreed on a winner, it's a lock.
If you needed any additional convincing, the 2013 win for Twenty Feet from Stardom and the 2012 win for Searching for Sugar Man show a clear favoritism in the academy when musicians are the topic.

Cartel Land
BAFTA - Documentary - Nominee
DGA – Winner
If it's somehow not Amy, I'll go with the only other doc. to win a precursor award.

The Look of Silence
PGA - Documentary - Nominee
The PGA is a little more reliable than the DGA, so that nomination carries a little more weight. Make no mistake. It won't get down this far.

What Happened, Miss Simone
DGA – Nominee
One precursor nomination is better than none.

Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom
My jaw would by agape if this somehow won.