Delayed Reaction: The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor

The Pitch: It's be like the first two, only without the originality, entire cast, or overall effort.

What Took Me So Long: I was not a big fan of the first Mummy and I only recently saw the second, of course, delaying this.

Why I Saw It: (Club 50) It's kind of fun seeing a franchise desperately try to prosper. Brendan Fraser is definitely the only star that HAD to return. The movie also gets that a proper villain is in order for this to work so they switch out The Rock for Jet Li which is a lateral move. Having Fraser's son grow up is a smart move from a "if there's a fourth movie" perspective.

Why I Wish I Hadn't: If Rachel Weisz isn't available and it's already an aging franchise, give it up. And this is coming from someone who quite likes Maria Bello. The whole movie is more "last gasp" than "breath of new life".

Verdict (?): Weakly Don't Recommend

Delayed Reaction: Are We Done Yet?

The Pitch: Let's make Are We There Yet? again but without the road trip.

What Took Me So Long: Well, I never wanted to see the first, but once I did, I figured I might as well complete the set.

Why I Saw It: (Club 50) There's endless joy in watching Ice Cube try to stay tough in a role like this.

Why I Wish I Hadn't: This was like a long episode of a TV show I had no desire to watch. It's clearly a kid's movie with no desire to entertain potential adult viewers. I don't understand why this movie even exists. Ultimately, it falls under that category of 'forgettable' more than 'bad'.

Verdict (?): Weakly Don't Recommend

Delayed Reaction: Rapture-Palooza

The Pitch: Let's do The Ten but for The Book of Revelations.

What Took Me So Long: The movie came with no press and is less than a year old. No much more I could've done to see it sooner.

Why I Saw It: I'll watch nearly anything with Anna Kendrick. Add in a lot of "actors from TV" that I love like Craig Robinson, John Francis Daley, and Ken Jeong. This is a stupid, stupid movie. It knows it as well as I do. I kept thinking of The Ten and Idiocracy the whole time I watched it. The plot plays like a writers room brainstorming session that got fleshed out to feature length. Some of the jokes are great, others are duds, and a few fall in the "so bad that it's funny" category (like the locusts that yell "suffer"). It's not too long, so there isn't enough time to wear the premise out too much. It's a good distraction movie.

Why I Wish I Hadn't: I'm not kidding when I say it's not a good movie. It's low budget. Most of the casting has the feel of someone doing a favor for the producer or that the joke is how little they are trying. There isn't much subtlety to any of it. I don't want to scare anyone away from it, but it's not a polished final product (nor does it want to be).

Verdict (?): Weakly Recommend

Delayed Reaction: Uncle Buck

The Pitch: I don't think there was a pitch. I kind of get the feeling that John Hughes really wanted to with with John Candy.

What Took Me So Long: I'm not sure. It escaped my for years due to chance.

Why I Saw It: (Club 50) I like John Hughes movies. I like John Candy. No brainer, right? It's not a challenging movie and there aren't more than a couple good laughs. It's the kind of movie that doesn't need much more than that though.

Why I Wish I Hadn't: One fun thing about John Hughes movies is how the language doesn't reflect the audience of the movie. In other words, despite all the "shits", this is a kids movie. The plot is simple. The laughs are broad. The stakes are easy. Like most John Hughes movies, I've noticed, if you don't see this movie before a certain age, then it's not going to hold up as well.

Verdict (?): Weakly Recommend

Delayed Reaction: Outrageous Fortune

The Pitch: Diane Chambers and Bette Midler playing Carla run from the CIA.

What Took Me So Long: This was not an appealing cast or premise to me.

Why I Saw It: (Club 50) George Carlin is in it. It does more to prove that he could not pick roles well at all but it's still nice to see him.

Why I Wish I Hadn't: Shelley Long has always annoyed me or at least the roles she plays best annoy me (the overbearing intellectual). My thoughts aren't that much higher about Bette Midler. Needless to say, theirs is not a pairing that fills me with much delight. The scope of the movie got a lot bigger than I expected. Here I thought it was just about scorned lovers becoming "the unlikeliest of friends", then it turns into a cross country adventure running from the CIA and KGB. I'll give them this. They didn't go small.

Verdict (?): Weakly Don't Recommend

Delayed Reaction: Three Men and a Little Lady

The Pitch: Three Men and a Baby was the highest grossing movie of 1987. No kidding. Halving those profits would be a success.

What Took Me So Long: First, I had to see Three Men and a Baby. Second, I needed to find the motivation to see what promised to be an underwhelming movie.

Why I Saw It: (Club 50) Steve Guttenberg, Ted Danson, and Tom Selleck is a good and varied core for a movie like this with their own comedic strengths and in the right balance can make for an entertaining movie. Essentially, this is the formula for The Hangover, whether people realize it or not. Then, if you add in a talented enough child actor, this movie could really pop.

Why I Wish I Hadn't: It bothers me when Hollywood studios don't understand how lightning in a bottle works. There is no reason for Three Men and a Baby to be as successful as it was. The movie isn't even all that great but it works. I guess you could look at later successes like Father of the Bride as proof that a sequel could work but those movies don't hinge on a child actor to pull it all together. A baby is a prop. A five year old is a liability. I can't shit on the movie too much because it's still agreeable. That doesn't mean I think it should exist.

Verdict (?): Weakly Don't Recommend

Delayed Reaction: Ali

The Pitch: Will Smith wants an Oscar. Denzel already got The Hurricane. Let's see what Will can do with Ali.

What Took Me So Long: I'm not sure. I'd see enough bits and pieces of it that I didn't have a strong pull to see it in full.

Why I Saw It: (Club 50) Will Smith is very good in this. I'd argue he was more deserving of the Oscar than Denzel Washington was for Training Day. The movie does a good job of hitting a lot of the big beats of Ali's career and does justice to the Rumble in the Jungle. It even does a good job presenting the rope-a-dope strategy as something new or surprising.

Why I Wish I Hadn't: It tried to cover to much story. I appreciate the attempt to do a biopic that covers his career, it's simply too eventful to do it without leaving some significant pieces out. I mainly noticed this in how he jumps from wife to mistress to wife constantly when, honestly, it doesn't even matter to the story that much. The whole thing left me wondering how much was left on the editing room floor.

Verdict (?): Weakly Recommend

Delayed Reaction: Valkyrie

The Pitch: People love fighting Nazis in movies. After this, people will be like "Schindler, who?"

What Took Me So Long: I've had my fill on Nazis for quite a while.

Why I Saw It: (Club 50) It's clear that the people working on this cared about the project. I was actually surprised to see Brian Singer on board and it didn't feel like one of his movies, blockbuster budget or not. Part of me wonders if this could've still been made with Tom Cruise on directing. Possibly to a fault, the film doesn't try to over sensationalize the events.

Why I Wish I Hadn't: I don't know about anyone else, but I spent the entire movie watching it as Tom Cruise with an eye-patch. I couldn't help it. It's too distracting. I'm not sure it's a role anyone could pull off without feeling like a gimmick. It was too much for him to overcome.

Verdict (?): Weakly Don' Recommend

Delayed Reaction: Patriot Games

The Pitch: Tom Clancy has a lot of these Jack Ryan books. We should probably make more of them into movies. They lend themselves pretty well to this medium.

What Took Me So Long: I don't see the appeal of the Jack Ryan series, as movies at least.

Why I Saw It: (Club 50) I'll watch nearly anything with Harrison Ford before 2000ish. That goes double for action movies with him. Fighting Irish terrorists seems like a perfect 1992 idea.

Why I Wish I Hadn't: It wasn't that long ago that I saw Blown Away, and this didn't strike me as all that different. The tone of the movie was a little strange. It had the feel of being several movies into a franchise with an established character, not the second movie and the first time with that actor playing the lead. Do we really know the character well enough to understand when he wants to stay out of the CIA so badly?

Verdict (?): Weakly Don't Recommend

Delayed Reaction: Cape Fear

The Pitch: Martin Scorsese and Robert de Niro are on board to - oh, that's all you needed to hear?

What Took Me So Long: I've taken my time to get through Scorsese's films because it's always nice to know I have another one waiting for me if I need.

Why I Saw It: (Club 50) Robert de Niro is delightfully menacing in this (apparently an opinion shared by the Academy).  I wouldn't call this a standard Scorsese movie but it's a good example of his versatility. I'm reminded of two things about Juliette Lewis watching this: 1) She can be really good when given the right material and 2) she has been around for a LONG time, especially considering she's barely 40.

Why I Wish I Hadn't: I spent a little too much of the movie thinking "I don't think this could really play out like that". I get that this exists in a heightened reality but it got to the point that I felt the direction and acting were saving the writing rather than improving upon it.

Verdict (?): Weakly Recommend

DVR Purge: 7/20-7/26

Oops, almost missed the week mark.

Past Purges 

The Bridge "Lamia"
Finally, everything is intersecting. The season so far has been scattered stories and they really were building toward one another. Sadly for everyone, the biggest point of connection right now is that apparently Eleanor is going to kill everyone.
Daniel and Adriana were certainly the most interesting characters for this hour. Daniel is in the middle of a coke-fueled relapse, complete with Rush and his sponsor. Two interesting things that that produces are his drug-powered research abilities. The other thing was a smaller detail is that he calls Adriana his best friend, which is either sad or sweet depending on how you look at it. Adriana's girlfriend becomes the first victim of this new round of hits. Thanks to Chekov's knitting needle, she at least takes down her attacker with her. That was pretty awesome.
Marco is stuck playing the part of the hero and couldn't be more miserable about it. He's got the tortured anti-hero thing down by now and it really is only a matter of time before he makes the decision to work against Fausto, despite his own safety and image.
Fausto is feeling the screws tighten and is starting to get very wistful. I'm not so sure how earned the scene with the fjords is considering we haven't followed him that much and there's been no signs of him having a kinder side. It was a good moment, but not particularly earned.
Sonya and Hank are working through some issues now. I assumed Dobb's brother digging up the body last week was something much darker than it turned out to be. He hasn't been using Sonya and more than she has, it turns out. The reveal of this body is going to be a sticking point with it meaning that there was potential to stop Dobbs before he killed his sister. That it brought out the truth about Hank's capture and shooting of Dobbs is all the worse. I don't know whose side I'm on. I do know that once you lose Sonya's trust, it hard to get it back.
The return of Eleanor was welcome. She disappeared or has been used in limited amounts the past couple weeks to allow the stories around her to develop. Now we have her origin story in the form of...I don't know, would you call that an allegory? And, we have her list of targets (essentially everyone). Going into the final stretch of episodes, things are about to get a lot more interesting and the cast, perhaps, getting a lot smaller.

Married "Invisible Man"
This is the kind of show that makes a story arc out of a vasectomy. In fact, that's been the biggest through line of the season so far. This week, it was all in service of giving us that painfully awkward scene of Russ having to give the sample. The fact that the room is next to the waiting room is uncomfortable. Being able to hear the dad teaching his daughter geometry is even more uncomfortable. That Russ can hear it well enough to correct him about how to find the area of a circle is clever. Lina at Goodwill having phone sex is an entertaining juxtaposition (Upon finishing: "Ok, I'll see you ate home." "We need waffles"). Russ not being able to finish on his own is kind of trite. I appreciate his neurosis about the selection ("Lesbian porn just makes me feel like a third wheel."), a more honest issue is being uncomfortable with being asked to do it on command or not getting an appropriately insulated room.
Interesting choice to have it end with Jess and whether or not she cheats on Shep.

You're the Worst "PTSD"
Where Jimmy and Gretchen go, so follows a path of destruction. At least, that's what the show wants us to believe. Or is it that we are supposed to think they are the one's who have it the most together? It's hard to say. Let's track the "destruction".
There's Megan Thomas, who should've known better than to sleep with a reporter. That's a day one PR lesson.
Coffee mustache guy could've said No to Gretchen. It's hard to feel bad about him getting fired. It's hard to believe he's being fired for a first offense.
Vernon and Becca, well they are in a bad marriage. That's their fault.
The bouncer shouldn't assume that what he had with Gretchen was anything special. I mean, they had sex in a dirty alley. Frankly, I'm shocked she gave him her phone number.
The kid from Ohio they don't bother to explain. He is obviously headed back to Ohio, but we don't know why. At least he got that random hook up with the hot girl (Lindsay) from the bar, which, by the way, makes this Linday's fault, not Gretchen and Jimmy's.
It's interesting that they don't cut to Lindsay, who is stuck in a marriage she doesn't like, or Edgar, who is simply too nice to be with the rest of these people (even when you tak into account that he's been waking up holding knives).
Finally there's Gretchen and Jimmy, who stumble into being exclusive. It's hard to say if the shared grimace at the end is a sign of things to come (probably) or simply meant to thematically fit with the rest of the episode.

Emmy Predictions: 2015

I know, I know. The 2014 Emmys are still fresh in our minds. I'd have to be some kind of TV award addict to already be thinking about next year. My annual way too early Emmy predictions have become a bit of a tradition. It's fun to look at what the next year holds and look for trends or inevitabilities down the line. As you can tell from previous editions of this (2012, 2013, 2014), I'm not very good at this. Let's see if I can do any better this time.

Modern Family loses and to a show that is already on the air.
It has been losing nominations the past two years. I thought it was at the tipping point in 2014 and was wrong. No comedy has even won six times and it is unfathomable for Modern Family to break that trend. Looking at the new comedies this year though, I don't see someone in that group capable of dethroning Modern Family, so something like Veep will have to break through or Big Bang's popularity needs to be enough.

There is no Mad Men resurgence
A popular theory I'm hearing is that Mad Men's final season is going to be a return to Emmy favor. Simply put, that won't happen. That's no how the Emmys work. Breaking Bad is the invisible pink unicorn, not the standard case. Hamm will get his nomination (maybe even a win in a weakened field). Another actor or two (Hendricks, Moss, Slattery) may see a nomination. The series gets a last nomination, but there won't be a feeling of anything being owed to the four time winner and it will not be going home with the big prize.

Outstanding Drama series goes back to HBO.
It's hard to believe that with all its perceived dominance in "prestige TV", HBO has only ever won Outstanding Drama Series with one show: The Sopranos. With AMC's power twosome finally down or out, it's time for HBO to break through again. Maybe Game of Thrones stays strong enough to sneak a win. Perhaps True Detective season 2 avoids the backlash the first season experienced. With HBO, I never count out the possibility that they'll come out with something new that starts a new dynasty. All I know is that I don't count them out.

Orange is the New Black takes a hit in nominations but it still a player.
Had Orange pulled even one win on Monday night, I'd be picking Orange to win it all next year. The way it played out though makes it look like an Emmy "flavor of the month" show. It could still win, but it will do it with fewer nominations. Taylor Schilling will have a harder time getting nominated next year due to a decreased role this season and I predict many more cast members to submit as Supporting Actress which will be harder to break into than the Guest Actress field they took over this year.

Silicon Valley doesn't fall out of the Comedy field.
I'm probably being bullish here. Silicon Valley was a surprise of nomination day. It's a crude show that had a brief, 8 episode season, with a full story arc, and starred familiar guys who play the nerdy best friends in other shows and movies. Still, I don't see it dropping out. There's plenty for the second season to do and I'm not sure that I see anything knocking it out. Make no mistake though, it is the most likely of the six nominees to not return.

Two of the three, Emmy Rossum, Keri Russell, Tatiana Maslany finally get much deserved nominations for their shows.
Yes, I'm being foolish. These three have been snubbed a combined eight times in the last four years. Both the Comedy and Drama Lead Actress fields are going through some attrition and they have to recognize some of their brilliant work. With this year's Emmys being marred by complacency, there could be a push to bring in with the new next year and this would be a great way how.

Arrow gets that Stunt Coordination nomination
I wouldn't even suggest this if I hadn't heard so many critics this year calling this one of the biggest snubs on nomination day. Certainly, the show deserves this recognition and will next year too. It's not a "valuable" nomination, so there's no reason for the Emmys to not give in and make sure it finally gets that nomination.

Last Week Tonight crashes the Variety Series field and wins.
I'm not sure if it replaces placeholder, Jimmy Kimmel Live, takes the hole left by The Colbert Report,  or takes over HBO's slot filled by Real Time, but I don't see how Last Week Tonight doesn't show up for Variety Series, where it stands a very good chance of winning. It has the web presence, the buzz, the writing, the host, and too much of the winning formula that has made The Daily Show so successful.

RuPaul's Drag Race finally gets a nomination either for the series or host, if not both.
I'm not asking for much. This is the most entertaining show in the Reality Competition field. It's a great way for the Emmy voters to look progressive while also being completely deserving.

Mike Schur will be watch from home.
Ok, not watching from home, but he won't be competing for anything. I don't see how Parks & Rec. could magically gain traction in its final season (a throw-away season on NBC's schedule). The better chance is that voters discover Brooklyn Nine Nine. I somehow doubt it though. While both shows are certain to be two of the best comedies on TV, this is the Academy that just handed Modern Family its fifth consecutive award. I have little hope.

Bonus: I will have seen at least two of the Mini-Series/Movie nominees.
I finally broke down and watched a couple things this year. Let's keep that trend going and build on it. And, to clarify, this means that if they split Mini-Series and Movie again, I'll see two from each. If they are joined, I'll still only see two.

Emmy Predictions 2014: Results

For the third year in a row, I made predictions shortly after the Emmys about the next year's ceremony. Let's see how I did with my 2013 predictions about the 2014 ceremony.

Prediction: Breaking Bad repeats for the win. It's gonna look a lot like 2007 with The Sopranos. Bryan Cranston is a lock to get his fourth trophy. Aaron Paul, Dean Norris, and Anna Gunn all get nominations with at least on of them winning.
Reasoning: We all knew when Breaking Bad won in 2013 it had to win in 2014. Nothing else would make sense.
Reality: True Detective gave a scare. Otherwise, nothing else was even close. Technically, Dean Norris didn't get a nomination, but all three of the nominated actors winning is enough for me to get full credit for this one (+1)

Prediction: Modern Family loses doesn't win anything the night of the main ceremony, specifically, for Outstanding Comedy series.
Reasoning: Four wins is hard. Five wins is almost unheard of, especially for a show that isn't nearly good enough.
Reality: Frasier and Modern Family are the same kind of show, so I should've picked it to match, not fall short. (+0)

Prediction: The Colbert Report does not repeat. I'm not sure if The Daily Show will swoop back in or if another show (Portlandia, perhaps) swoops in.
Reasoning: Part of me thought that Jon Stewart's summer hiatus to direct a movie impacted the voting (even though those episodes technically counted toward this year). If not that, then a break from 10-year monotony could've shaken the voters to try something new.
Reality: Emmy voters like to move from one inevitability to another when given the chance. This being the last Emmys before Colbert jumps to CBS certainly helped the Report win too. (+0)

Prediction: NBC keeps its spot in Outstanding Comedy Series without 30 Rock. Be it the return of Parks & Rec. or a new series jumping in (Michael J Fox Show?), NBC will not break its 32 year streak with at least one  Comedy Series nomination.
Reasoning: 32 year streak! Parks and Rec. is still a top tier comedy. The Michael J Fox Show looked like a player. Even the return to form of Community could've been met with open arms (they did land a writing nomination before Harmon was fired).
Reality: NBC pushed too hard toward broad. All its Fall releases either failed (Michael J Fox Show, Sean Saves the Universe) or were unremarkable (About a Boy, Growing Up Fisher). It tried desperately to lose their niche comedies (Community, Parks & Rec). More importantly, the competition was too much. (+0)

Prediction: Assuming it premieres in time, Louie declines its nomination count.
Reasoning: The Academy clearly loves Louis C.K. but an experimental show like Louie is bound to stop being fresh.
Reality: He lost the guest acting nominations, which is surprising in Sarah Baker's case. He kept the big nominations though. It's clear the show will never win big, but if it's this generations' Larry Sanders Show, I'm ok with that. (+0)

Prediction: Tarran Killam and one of the female cast members get nominations in Supporting categories for SNL.
Reasoning: With Hader and Sudeikis leaving, Killam looked like the new go-to impression and hansom man on the show and there are too many talented ladies on SNL to ignore.
Reality: None of the men stuck out this season of SNL (partly because there were so many of them). McKinnon did get the nomination on the women's side. I almost want to award myself full credit due to the Fred Armisen nomination for Portlandia, but I'll score honestly. (+.5)

Prediction: Orange is the New Black carries its buzz to the Golden Globes but fizzles out by the time the Emmy come back around. It does not get a best comedy nomination.
Reasoning: Orange had all the buzz last year at this time. It's hard for a summer show to maintain buzz though. I forgot to count that the second season would be coming out around the time voters were picking nominations though.
Reality: I was wrong about the Globes (where only Schilling was recognized) and the Emmys (where Orange led comedy nominations). There's no way around it, I underestimated the support it had. (+0)

Prediction: Sundance Channel stays a player in the Mini-Series game.
Reasoning: Top of the Lake was so good last year and it's not hard to break in (and this was before they announced that they'd be splitting the Mini-Series and Movie award).
Reality: Sundance didn't produce any mini-series. That's not my fault, so I'm calling this an incomplete (I).

Prediction: Network dramas continue the cold streak in the Outstanding Drama field.
Reasoning: It's a tough field. The Good Wife has been the only perennial contender and The Black List was the only potential party crasher.
Reality: The Good Wife nearly fell back in to Emmy favor but Downton Abbey successfully edged it out. (+1).

Prediction: And, to keep with the tradition, I'll have seen at least one of the Mini-Series/TV Movie nominees.
Reasoning: It's just one Mini-Series or Movie. How hard can it be? There's no way I kept up a third year of not seeing any.
Reality: I saw not one, but four of the nominees. Fargo showed up with some category fudging. I finally got around to Sherlock. HBO Go access allowed me the chance to see The Normal Heart. For some reason (more because of Sarah Hyland than I'd like to admit), I actually watched Bonnie & Clyde. (+1).

That gives me a final score of 3.5 out of 9, which is down from last year. Perhaps I was too bold with my picks or I assumed inertia wouldn't cause so many repeat winners. No matter. I sure my picks for 2015 will be just as dicey,

Delayed Reaction: Forver Young

The Pitch: Captain America without the super powers.

What Took Me So Long: Whenever I came across this title, I thought of the song (which, by the way, wasn't even used in the movie. Why even make it then?).

Why I Saw It: (Club 50) Placed squarely between the Lethal Weapon movies, Maverick, and Braveheart this movie is from my favorite period of Mel Gibson's career (basically, after his heartthrob days and before his hating Jews phase). I like seeing John Wendt show up, presumably because John Goodman was busy making King Ralph or something. And, it's always nice to be reminded how long Elijah Wood has been acting. Seriously, while he's not always going to be Frodo, the Lord of the Rings movies really wiped out my memories of him before 2001.

Why I Wish I Hadn't: I don't like when a movie takes itself more seriously than anyone watching it could. It's a movie that has some fun with putting someone from the past in the modern day because that's always good for a few easy laughs and there's a couple poignant moments about missed opportunities. The whole time though, you can see Mel Gibson thinking "this'll be good for an Oscar, or at least a Golden Globe nomination" when it's quickly obvious from the final cut that it never had a chance at that.

Verdict (?): Weakly Don't Recommend

Emmys 2014 Post-Mortem

Another year, another Emmys, and another mixed bag of results. On the plus side, this is the best I've done picking in a while and many of my incorrect picks were ones I was happy to miss. As I do every year, it's time for me break it down into some broad categories.

The Good

Breaking Bad Repeating
To paraphrase what everyone has said since the end of last year's Emmys, of course Breaking Bad was going to win. There was a brief moment when True Detective had all the buzz, but momentum does build for the Emmys the way it does with the Oscars. There's too much time for things to cool down, so Breaking Bad peaked again for one of the all-time great final seasons. The field is open for anyone next year, but this was the year for Breaking Bad. Anyone who believes otherwise is trying to hard to fight the hype.

The Writing Wins
They don't always get them right, but it's hard to argue with the picks for writing this year. "Ozymandias" is one of the great TV episodes ever. "So Did the Fat Lady" was one of the strongest written Louie episodes to date and a much better representative for the series than his 2012 win for "Pregnant". It's even hard to argue with Stephen Moffat's win. Sure, I'd've rather seen Fargo win, but I can live with an award, essentially for the season of Sherlock, although it's technically for the one episode.

Familiar Faces.
Cranston, Paul, and Gunn deserved their farewell trophies. Julia Louis-Dreyfus continues to somehow be a level above the rest of the field in the insanely strong Lead Actress in a Comedy category. Based on what I hear from others, it sounds like Jessica Lange, Allison Janney, and Julianna Margulies all deserve to add to their collections. Given the weakness of the category, I'm even pleased with Jim Parsons winning for a fourth time, if only to make sure Don Cheadle didn't win.

The Bad

Modern Family Repeating
The Emmy voters are a more mysterious group than the Oscar or Golden Globe voters. They are in a bubble and you can only base their voting off how they've voted in the past. Given how much success Frasier had, it shouldn't surprise me that Modern Family, a worse, but similarly structured show has dominated like this. It's hard to forgive the number of great shows that haven't won because of this love affair. I thought the field was strong enough and Modern Family weak enough to finally bet on the field to win. Seriously though, five is enough. Stop this madness.

Sherlock (sort of) Dominating
I like Benedict Cumberbatch. I like Martin Freeman. I like Stephen Moffat. This past season of Sherlock was pretty good.  Had these wins not come at the expense of the far superior Fargo and The Normal Heart, I'd be happy to see them. But, no. Mini-Series and Movie had too much strength to be this singly dominated. Somehow, it frustrates me even more that Sherlock gets all these wins yet still loses to The Normal Heart for TV Movie. Come on Academy. At least be consistent.

Monday Night
What the hell was that about? Sunday has breathing room. Red carpet coverage isn't cut out for local news specials and people don't have to worry about sneaking dinner and errands in after work before it comes on. I'm ok with making it a month early, but if you are going to go to that trouble, keep it on a familiar night of the week.

The Meh

Orange is the New Black Not Winning
I've never been a huge Orange fan. I think it's a find show, that has received an out pour of love that doesn't match my own for it. The Emmys have a long history of bridesmaids that they like to nominate more than award (Six Feet Under immediately comes to mind). More than anything, it was the Great Orange Hope to finally bump Modern Family off and I'm a little annoyed how much of a tease it was.

The Directing Wins
"Ozymandias" wasn't nominated and that's a laughable offense. The True Detective win was certainly the best available. A Fargo episode did win for Mini-Series/Movie, although it was the lesser of the two. Modern Family's "Las Vegas" is an achievement in comedy direction. I just wish it was one that didn't require me to ignore the sub-par writing featured in it.

Seth Meyers
That wasn't painful, was it? It'll be hard to come up with a more vanilla host than Meyers. He was funny without being distinctive and in control without being memorable. He was kind of perfect for a year in which the ceremony seemed determined to be forgotten as quickly as possible once it ended.

Final Emmy Picks

It's the big day and here are my collected picks.

Series Picks

Outstanding Comedy Series 
Will Win: Orange is the New Black
Could Win: Modern Family
Should Win: Veep

Outstanding Drama Series
Will Win: Breaking Bad
Could Win: True Detective
Should Win: Breaking Bad

Outstanding Variety Series
Will Win: The Colbert Report
Could Win: The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Should Win: The Colbert Report

Outstanding Miniseries
Will Win: Fargo
Could Win: AHS: Coven
Should Win: Fargo

Outstanding Television Movie
Will Win: The Normal Heart
Could Win: Sherlock - His Last Vow
Should Win: The Normal Heart

Outstanding Reality - Competition Program
Will Win: The Voice
Could Win: The Amazing Race
Should Win: The Voice

Lead Acting Picks

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfuss - Veep
Could Win: Taylor Schilling - Orange is the New Black
Should Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus - Veep

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Will Win: Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory
Could Win: Louis C.K. - Louie
Should Win: Louis C.K. - Louie

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Will Win: Julianna Margulies - The Good Wife
Could Win: Claire Danes - Homeland
Should Win: Julianna Margulies - The Good Wife

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey - True Detective
Could Win: Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad
Should Win: Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
Will Win: Jessica Lange - AHS: Coven
Could Win: Sarah Paulson - AHS: Coven
Should Win: Jessica Lange - AHS: Coven

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
Will Win: Mark Ruffalo - The Normal Heart
Could Win: Billy Bob Thorton - Fargo
Should Win: Billy Bob Thorton - Fargo

Supporting Acting Picks

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Will Win: Tony Hale - Veep
Could Win: Ty Burrell - Modern Family
Should Win: Andre Braugher - Brooklyn Nine Nine

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Will Win: Allison Janney - Mom
Could Win: Kate Mulgrew - Orange is the New Black
Should Win: Anna Chlumsky - Veep

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Will Win: Aaron Paul - Breaking Bad
Could Win: Peter Dinklage - Game of Thrones
Should Win: Peter Dinklage - Game of Thrones

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Will Win: Anna Gunn - Breaking Bad
Could Win: Christine Baranski - The Good Wife
Should Win: Anna Gunn - Breaking Bad

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
Will Win: Jim Parsons - The Normal Heart
Could Win: Matt Bomer - The Normal Heart
Should Win: Jim Parsons - The Normal Heart

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
Will Win: Allison Tolman - Fargo
Could Win: Julia Roberts - The Normal Heart
Should Win: Allison Tolman - Fargo

Directing Picks

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
Will Win: Orange is the New Black "Lesbian Request Denied"
Could Win: Modern Family "Las Vegas"
Should Win: Orange is the New Black "Lesbian Request Denied"

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
Will Win: True Detective "Who Goes There"
Could Win: Breaking Bad "Felina"
Should Win: True Detective "Who Goes There"

Outstanding Directing for a Miniseries or TV Movie
Will Win: The Normal Heart
Could Win: Fargo "Burdain's Ass"
Should Win: Fargo "Burdain's Ass"

Writing Picks

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
Will Win: Louie "So Did the Fat Lady"
Could Win: Orange is the New Black "I Wasn't Ready"
Should Win: Louie "So Did the Fat Lady"

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
Will Win: True Detective "The Secret Fate of All Life"
Could Win: Breaking Bad "Ozymandias"
Should Win: Breaking Bad "Ozymandias"

Outstanding Writing for a Miniseries, Movie or a Dramatic Special
Will Win: The Normal Heart
Could Win: Fargo "The Crocodile's Dilemma"
Should Win: Fargo "The Crocodile's Dilemma"

Delayed Reaction: Working Girl

The Pitch: Let's make a girl version of The Secret of My Success.

What Took Me So Long: Baby Boom left a really bad taste in my mouth and this looked like the same kind of pseudo-empowerment dribble.

Why I Saw It: (Club 50) I like Harrison Ford even if his isn't an action hero in this. Sigourney Weaver plays the role of the villain well. There's a surprisingly strong supporting cast too from Alec Baldwin to Joan Cusack to Oliver Platt to Kevin Spacey. Honestly, for 1988, it found a lot of actors with staying power in or around Hollywood (I say around because all of those actors are on TV shows right now).

Why I Wish I Hadn't: I found Melanie Griffith, or at least her character very annoying. It was like watching Pygmalion but without Hesse doing any of the heavy lifting and it got old pretty quick. Also, maybe I missed something in the plot but did Weaver's character really do anything so wrong? It's not like she put Griffith's idea into effect yet. And that was only one thing. I don't think they initially painted that character enough as a villain. She's not a nice person, but that doesn't make a villain outright, especially in the days of yuppies. As a reaction to Gordon Gekko, she was fairly toothless.

Verdict (?): Weakly Recommend

Delayed Reaction: Cocktail

The Pitch: You know those bartenders that take too long to prepare your drink because they are showing off how well they can toss bottles around? Let's do a whole movie about them.

What Took Me So Long: Hmm, who would I not be chomping at the bits to see a movie about an aspiring yuppie who detours with a job as a bartender?...

Why I Saw It: (Club 50) Say what you will about Tom Cruise but he's always had movie star presence and that carries him through this. Elisabeth Shue is also one of those actresses who I liked and was big for a while, then, through bad choices and Hollywood casting unkind to aging women, kind of went away. It's nice to see her in her babysitter prime.

Why I Wish I Hadn't: This movie is all over the place. At times, quite literally. I kind of can't believe how much plot they tried to stuff into this. Cruise is in business school, then casually goes from being a shitty bartender to the best one in New York in a matter of months, has a fallout, goes to the Caribbean, meets a girl, messes that up, comes back to New York, there's a pregnancy involved and proving himself to the girl's father, and a friend's suicide. It's such a busy movie and I'm not actually sure what it's about by the end.

Verdict (?): Strongly Don't Recommend

Movie Reaction: If I Stay

Formula: The Fault in Our Stars / After.Life

Why I Saw It: Sin City: A Dame to Kill For bombed so spectacularly and with such mixed reviews that I determined it wasn't worth it.

Cast: I'm an unapologetic Chloe Grace Moretz fanboy at this point. From Kick-Ass to her 30 Rock appearances to Carrie, she's always good and this is no different. At 17, she can already carry a movie with ease. She's no Shalaine Woodley (yet), but the Fault comparison is not one that If I Stay can escape this summer. If I've seen Jamie Blackley before, I couldn't tell you what it was in. He's a respectably generic romantic lead. "The high schooler who dreams of making it big in a band"  is a cliche by now, and I doubt the book was written before that was the case. Mirieille Enos and Joshua Leonard play the cool parents. Jacob Davies is effectively the younger brother. Liana Liberato plays the best friend you wish you had. I need to single out Stacy Keach, as the grandfather. because he gets the single biggest tear-jerker moment, and let's be honest, that's what we're all here for in this movie.

Plot: Mia (Moretz) is an aspiring cellist who falls in love with an aspiring rock star (Blackley). Their relationship is told through a series of flashbacks. The movie begins much later though, when Mia gets into a car wreck with her family and, inexplicable, ghost-Mia is able to follow everything in the hospital, while actual Mia is in a coma (or something like a coma. I don't know how medical terminology works). It's all set in Portland, and, in the same way that The Fault in Our Stars felt specific to suburban Indiana, this felt specific to Portland, with the talk of music collectives and somewhat bohemian parents. It's all very geared toward the young adult audience, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but I was acutely aware while watching it that this movie wasn't meant  for me.

Elephant in the Room: Is summer over? Well, Sin City bombed and this couldn't beat a fourth weekend competitor in Guardians of the Galaxy. It's still looking like it's going to be a record-breaking August, but yeah, the summer season is over. Everyone prepare for a good month or two of studio-burn offs and awards hopefuls trying to be the first one out of the gate for Oscar season (btw, too late. Boyhood is already out).

To Sum Things Up:
Chloe has yet to disappoint me. The movie around her though is pretty unremarkable. I'm always bothered when a movie is clearly based off a book. The characters and dynamics are a counter-culture ideal and most of the lines from the big scenes play much better on the page (I assume) than they do acted out. The movie is fine, and there is a specific audience that will love it. The actors are all engaged and take the material seriously. The material simply doesn't translate to the screen as well as one would hope. Remember Charlie St. Cloud? There's your favorable comparison.

Verdict (?): Weakly Don't Recommend

Delayed Reaction: The Running Man

The Pitch: It'll be like a violent Network

What Took Me So Long: It's hard not to feel like if you've seen one 80s Schwarzenegger movie, you've seen them all. This fell victim to that apathy.

Why I Saw It: (Club 50) There's always room in my heart for a good dystopia. This is not a subtle movie in the least, but unlike Network, I enjoyed the point they were trying to make, I think because it focuses more on the public being manipulated against their judgment as opposed to being the ones driving the madness. In other words, the audience enjoyed The Running Man, sure, but they are quick to embrace Arnold's character because they are presented as having some thought, as opposed to Network, which treats people as having essentially no power in anything and presents them as little more than a mob.

Why I Wish I Hadn't: It's sad watching a movie like this trying to predict future technology. It is hard to not be distracted by analog approximations of digital advancements.

Verdict (?): Strongly Recommend

Delayed Reaction: Dinosaur

The Pitch: The Land Before Time but prettier.

What Took Me So Long: I don't remember this movie at all. I thought I had a good Disney memory but this one completely slipped by me.

Why I Saw It: (Club 50) It is short. That's always a plus for a movie I'm not excited to see. It looks pretty good, especially for a movie made over a decade ago that was so CGI heavy.

Why I Wish I Hadn't: Generic. So generic. I mean, the plot is basically Tarzan if they were on the run from nature. I can't be angry that I saw it. That would imply that I feel anything for this movie.

Verdict (?): Weakly Don't Recommend

Delayed Reaction: Deja Vu

The Pitch: We want to make Timecop but really play down the science fiction aspect.

What Took Me So Long: I felt like I'd seen it before.

Why I Saw It: (Club 50) Denzel Washington has always been a capable leading man and he brings a good mix of good guy charm and investigator's curiosity to this. The story is clever enough that it kept my interest most of the way through.

Why I Wish I Hadn't: While there is some cleverness, it's very clear that at some point the screenwriter or the editor said "fuck it. Make it work somehow" because all the clues about how Denzel went back in time are there but with some major logical flaws. If all the clues match up, how does the girl (Paula Patton) survive? Did I miss where there was some major change to the space-time continuum, because every move he makes seems to inevitably lead to the same end that began his investigation. I could attack the fuzzy science of the movie to begin with but I think one of the fundamental rules of "high concept" is the conceit that you accept a major logical leap or two.

Verdict (?): Weakly Recommend

Delayed Reaction: Boomerang

The Pitch: Eddie Murphy is so charming. I wonder what women he'll end up with? Let's throw a bunch at him and see what sticks.

What Took Me So Long: At some point in the 90s Eddie Murphy stopped being someone I care to see as the lead in a movie.

Why I Saw It: (Club 50) Murphy is always high energy. I don't believe he's ever had the desire to do subtlety and I kind of appreciate that. He has good chemistry with either of the female leads (Robin Givens or Halle Berry, who I barely recognized). There's a few good jokes scattered in. I know I laughed out loud at the end of the scene in the store when he scared the white people.

Why I Wish I Hadn't: There's a smugness to Eddie Murphy at the height of his popularity that wears against me. He can get by with it in Beverly Hills Cop or 48 hrs. Those are buddy-cop movies. He is very much front and center here and writing a movie about how he is a great womanizer is a tad self-aggrandizing. Isn't a bad movie by any means. It's not a side of Murphy I'd like to see more of.

Verdict (?): Weakly Don't Recommend

Delayed Reaction: Presumed Innocent

The Pitch: Harrison Ford wants to do a court drama. Write a script. Any script.

What Took Me So Long: If you instructed me to develop a completely generic courtroom drama, the title I'd've settled on probably would've looked like this one.

Why I Saw It: (Club 50) Harrison Ford is fine. There's a decade early union of John Spencer and Bradley Whitford that was fun.

Why I Wish I Hadn't: Apparently, all courtroom dramas before A Few Good Men had to be shot in as boring a way as possible. This was so friggin' dull I couldn't believe it. The twist at the end is cool in a What Lies Beneath sort of way. I almost didn't make it that far. Seriously, how can a movie be shot so entirely without a pulse?

Verdict (?): Strongly Don't Recommend

Emmy Picks: Series

With the Emmys less than a week away, I better make my final picks: Series. The way this works is I've put each nominee in order from who I think is most likely to win to least likely. My personal favorite is listed as such and I've included the biggest snub from the category last. Simple enough, especially for the couple of you who have read these before.

Previously...
Emmy Predictions - Writing
Emmy Predictions - Directing
Emmy Predictions - Supporting Acting
Emmy Prediction - Lead Acting

Outstanding Comedy Series
Orange Is the New Black (Netflix) It really looks like Modern Family will be dethroned this year, and it's most likely that it will be upended by a new challenger. That makes this super nominee (5 nodes for acting, 1 for directing, writing, and casting each) the most likely winner.

Modern Family (ABC) Only Frasier has won five times in this category and Modern Family, despite its shared DNA is no Frasier. It lost some nominations last year and surprised many by still winning. It lost even more nominations this year and finally looks weak enough to lose. Still, it's stupid to count the reigning four time winner out.

[My Favorite] Veep (HBO) I may be underestimating Veep. It's picked up nomination each year, adding writing this year to go along with four acting nominations. Season 3 was the best yet for the show and Emmy voters love it. Even as I'm writing this, I'm wondering if I should place it higher.

Louie (FX) I thought last year was Louie's best chance. It still has the Lead Actor, Directing, Writing, and Casting nominations, so technically, it's in a good position for a win. This was admittedly a down season, and given how the six and three part episodes in this season could play according to the Emmy voting procedure, it's not likely that this is the year to win.

The Big Bang Theory (CBS) With it getting bigger each season, it's hard to dismiss Big Bang. Jim Parsons has his fourth Emmy locked in by my measure and it seems unlikely that Big Bang never wins this award, but year-to-year it's still an underdog.

Silicon Valley (HBO) I wouldn't begrudge a win here. The nomination itself was so unlikely that a win is almost too much to ask for.

Biggest Snub: Brooklyn Nine Nine (FOX) A strong argument could be made for many shows. Girls fell out of the field despite having an equally good season as the nominated years. Even a mediocre Parks & Rec. season like this is one of the six best of the year. Shameless did some category hopping, had its least funny, but probably best season and still couldn't make it in. I'm going with the youth movement though. It took Brooklyn Nine Nine a while to get good, but once it did, it was a top notch series, making the kind of jump that The Office and Parks & Rec. had [in their second seasons due to short first seasons]. If there's one show from this TV season that I'm recommending people get in on early, it's this one.

Outstanding Drama Series
[My Favorite] Breaking Bad (AMC) Last year, Breaking Bad won this award with only an Anna Gun win for Supporting Actress. That season was nowhere near as good as this one but True Detective is better competition than anything last year. Still, a year since the finale, Breaking Bad is still incredibly highly regarded and True Detective has taken some hits. The only thing working against Breaking Bad is that the Emmys are far more likely to reward a strong coming out than a powerful finish (i.e. first seasons win more often than last seasons by a lot).

True Detective (HBO) I have True Detective winning for Lead Actor, Writing, and Directing and still have them losing? That's the nature of Emmy voting. Those awards are voted on based on single episodes. Outstanding Drama Series is voted on using several episodes and Breaking Bad's eight are better than True Detective's eight.

Game of Thrones (HBO) Last year was Game of Thrones' best chance. The field was weaker, season three was it's most consistently strong, and it was still young enough to not require a groundswell of support to win. It still has several acting nominations, writing, directing, and casting. It's not unfathomable that it wins but it would be considered a major upset.

Mad Men (AMC) The former four time winner (2008-2011) is still getting nominated, but the breadth of the nominations is down tremendously (only a couple for acting). It is clearly a show that the Emmys have moved past.

House of Cards (Netflix) Like Seabiscuit, House of Cards needs to be in the lead right out of the gate. It didn't win last year, and because of that, there is no chance it will this year. That's the nature of Emmy momentum.

Downton Abbey (PBS) Most people are laughing off this nomination to begin with.

Biggest Snub: The Americans (FX) A number of the best contenders I haven't seen. The Good Wife had a comeback season. Boardwalk Empire built toward a strong end like always. Masters of Sex had a fine inaugural season. For me, it comes down to two sophomore shows: Hannibal and The Americans. Hannibal was predictably dark and beautiful, but The Americans made a creative leap and ended as strong as it started, with no fallow period in the middle.

Outstanding Variety Series
[My Favorite] The Colbert Report (Comedy Central) Finally broke The Daily Show's 10 year dominance in the category last year. The last time Variety Series had a single year winner was 1997 so The Colbert Report is poised to repeat.

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central) Winner from 2003-2012. It wouldn't be crazy to think last year was a fluke.

The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC) The most buzzed about show in the category. It's technically both a new and an established show, which makes it a dangerous Emmy contender. It's hard to look past the powerful Comedy Central duo, but this is the most likely usurper.

Saturday Night Live (NBC) I mean, it is a former winner. Then again, its wins were in 1993 and 1976: two of the best seasons of the nearly 40 year old series.

Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO) One could argue that Real Time would have a win by now in an era without The Daily Show. After all, it has been nominated here since 2005.

Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) This is the only place that this show keeps getting nominated. At this point it has as much to do with Emmy complacency as anything.

Biggest Snub: Portlandia (IFC) Let's see. Nominated for writing. Nominated for directing. Nominated for Supporting Actor (Fred Armisen). Somehow, not nominated for Outstanding Variety Series. Please explain.

Outstanding Miniseries
[My favorite] Fargo (FX) One of the most critically acclaimed shows of the years. The Emmy voters seem to like it as well. Its only real competition is The Normal Heart and that's in a different category. It's hard seeing Fargo losing this.

American Horror Story: Coven (FX) American Horror Story hasn't been able to win but it keeps getting the nominations, so maybe it's only a matter of time.

Treme (HBO) Maybe the only thing holding Treme back was the stiff Drama Series competition. David Simon's losing track record suggests otherwise.

Luther (BBC America) There is that 2012 nomination to look to.

The White Queen (Starz) It's on Starz. I'm not ready to start treating that like a think that's going to win.

Bonnie & Clyde (A&E) I actually watched this. All I can say is "no". The nomination is fine. A win is not.

Biggest Snub: Dancing on the Edge (Starz) With Miniseries and TV Movie divided, again, this category is weak as hell. Shows that got nominated shouldn't've. I know nothing about Dancing but it has the closest look of a snub.

Outstanding Television Movie
[My Favorite] The Normal Heart (HBO) What, like it's not going to win?

Sherlock: "His Last Vow" (PBS) This feels like the strongest competitor, due to star power alone. It's a pointless fight though. There's no other possible winner.

Muhammad Ali's Greatest Fight (HBO) An HBO movie will always have the advantage over competitors. This is the secondary HBO movie though.

Killing Kennedy (National Geographic) Never count out something with Kennedy in the title.

The Trip to Bountiful (Lifetime) I don't know much about it. By habit, I dismiss Lifetime movies from consideration for the win.

Biggest Snub: Clear History (HBO) This category isn't any stronger than Miniseries, but it does have the inexplicably not Emmy supported Clear History to pick as snubbed.

Outstanding Reality - Competition Program
[My "Favorite"] The Voice (NBC) Last year's winner. Still a popular show. No reason to bet against it.

The Amazing Race (CBS) Let's see, The Amazing Race has won this 9 of the 11 years since the category was created. That's what we call 'credentials'.

Top Chef (Bravo) It has a lone win in 2010, which puts it ahead of the remaining nominees.

Project Runway (Lifetime) 10th consecutive nomination. Never won.

Dancing with the Stars (ABC) 9th consecutive nomination. Never won.

So You Think You Can Dance (Fox) 4th consecutive nomination. New won.

Biggest Snub: RuPaul's Drag Race (Logo) Come on Emmys. Get with the times and nominate Drag Race already. It deserves it.

Delayed Reaction: Greenberg

The Pitch: You know that 40 year old guy at a party who depresses you to see hanging out with 20-somethings? Let's make a movie about him.

What Took Me So Long: I always heard about how Ben Stiller comes off as a jerk in this and I wasn't in the mood to be uncomfortable for 90 minutes.

Why I Saw It: I've fallen hard for Greta Gerwig after seeing Frances Ha so it looks like I'll be moving back through her career to catch up on what I've missed. She definitely seems to be one of those actresses who plays similar characters although she does it very well. Ben Stiller takes an impressive turn as well. Greenberg isn't likable but he's not some horrible person. He just has very pointed flaws and they ruin everything.

Why I Wish I Hadn't: Movies like this are why I've had such a hard time remember the difference between Juno Temple and Brie Larson! In all seriousness though, this has basically every actor in the indie scene (if there is one) at some point. As a character study it works really well. Honestly though, I'm a plot guy. It doesn't have to be one or the other. The end result is a movie I can't dislike for things it did wrong because it opted to avoid them altogether. that makes is hard to love it either.

Verdict (?): Weakly Recommend