Wednesday, November 8, 2017

College Basketball Preseason Top 25

Believe it or not, I spend just as much time following basketball as I do movies. I don't have quite as much to say though, so I limited things to a handful of posts in November. Today it my picks for Top 25 along with a couple sleepers.

Last Year:
Top 25 / Conference Picks

2015-16:
Top 25 / Conference Picks
2014-15:
Top 25 / Conference Picks



1. Kansas
The Jayhawks are a safe pick. They don't have the highest upside of any team, but they probably have the highest floor. They are always good and bring back in just enough to expect that they will be good again. It's tough to lose a player of the year (Frank Mason), a top 4 lottery pick (Josh Jackson), and your only reliable big man (Landen Lucas) and expect to stay good. In fact, that's almost my exact formula for expecting a big regression. Kansas looks ready to bounce back though. Mason's backcourt mate, Devonte Graham, is expected to rotate into the lead guard position in his Senior year. He'll be joined by 6th man LaGerald Vick or Mississippi St. transfer and former top 10 recruit Malik Newman in the back court. At the wing, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, who showed flashes of that NBA potential last season, should continue that progress this year. Big man Udoka Azubuike will be back from the injury that cut his season short last year. That's a solid core even before considering the recruiting class. That includes 6'10 F Billy Preston, Rivals' #11 ranked recruit and 6'5 G Marcus Garrett (#41). As long as they can contribute some even off the bench, Kansas is in good shape.

2. Michigan Stata
Expecting the Spartans to jump from #40 last year to #2 is a lot. They have the roster for it though. The only big loss from last year is Eron Harris, whole was injured by the end of the season anyway. Laurawls Narin has never been an All-Conference point guard, but he's a Senior who has played a lot of minutes. He just needs to be competent. That's all. The super Ssophomre class (Miles Bridges, Joshua Langford, Cassius Winston, and Nick Ward) will carry this team, especially Bridges, who could've been a lottery pick had he entered the draft this summer. To bolster the thin front court last year, the bring back seniors Gavin Schilling and Ben Carter, who both missed last season with injuries. And, there's #6 rated freshman Forward Jaren Jackson joining them. They have experience, depth, and talent. That's a dangerous mix.

3. Arizona
The specter of the FBI investigation is going to loom over a lot of teams this season. Arizona is the first big one, and it's the main reason I don't have them any higher. I'm making my picks based on the assumption that teams won't be penalized this season though. The Wildcats lost about half their production from last year's team. Lacking Lauri Markkanen and Kadeem Allen will hurt the most. This team is loaded though. Having a Senior PG like Parker Jackson-Cartwright is always a good place to start. Big man Dusan Rustic can shore up the middle if #3 rated recruit DeAndre Ayton (C) isn't ready (He should be though, and if he is, look out!). They have a great pair of wings in Allonzo Trier and Rawle Alkins . They have a helluva recruiting class even beyond Ayton, not to mention a couple of mid-major transfers to give them stability. My only concern is that most years, Arizona is better on paper than their ranking by the end of the year.

4. Duke
I mentioned that Kansas has the highest floor of any team. Well, Duke has the highest ceiling. They bring in the #1 rated recruiting class, which includes the 2nd (Marvin Bagley - F), 5th (Trevon Duval - G), 7th (Wendell Carter - F), and 18th (Gary Trent Jr. - G) rated freshmen (and others). If they hit the way the class in 2014 class did, they could easily win another championship. They only return one player who was a significant contributor from last season: Grayson Allen, who can be a stabilizing force when the Freshmen need it. Finally, there might be room for Sophomores Marques Bolden and Javin DeLaurier to break out this year. Of course, the problem Duke has had in recent years other than the championship season is at PG. If Duval isn't ready to lead them at the point, it may not matter how good the big men and wings are.

5. Villanova
Despite losing All-Everything guard Josh Hart, the  Wildcats should be just fine in the back court. They bring back Big East All-Conference guard Jalen Brunson and Sophomore Donte Divincenzo looks ready to move to the starting lineup. They also have Big East co-Defensive Player of the Year Mikal Bridges back as a combo forward. They lose some size with the graduations of Kris Jenkins and Darryl Reynolds. Keeping Eric Paschall softens that blow, but a lot of pressure will be on redshirt Freshman Omari Spellman to be ready immediately. The guard play will carry this team regardless. If the big man rotation is better than adequate, this team will be terrifying.

6. USC
Every year there's a team that's a consensus top 10 team that I don't trust at all. I believe it was Wisconsin last year and Maryland the year before. This year, it's easily USC. They finished last year outside the top 50 and, despite having a number of strong recruiting classes,  haven't been a top 40 team since some guy named James Harden played for them. Because of that, I'm naming them my biggest bust candidate. That said, it's easy to love them on paper. They bring back over 90% of their minutes played, scoring, assisting, blocking, and stealing. The top 8 players are back, including big man Chimezie Metu, who is immediately a Pac-12 Player of the Year candidate. If that wasn't enough, Duke transfer, Derryck Thornton (G), a former top 20 recruit is eligible this year and freshman Charles O'Bannon Jr. (G) is a top 50 recruit. Even with natural progression of the returning players, you can expect the Trojans to be massively improved and give Arizona a run in the PAC-12.

7. Wichita Stata
The Shockers finished last season #8 and bring back their top 7 players. In total, that's 10 or their top 11 players from last year. This includes MVC All-Conference First Team players Landry Shamet (PG) and Markis McDuffie (F). They are balanced. They are talented. And, they aren't likely to be so overlooked now that they've moved to the American Athletic Conference. The only thing preventing me from locking them into the top 5 is that they are starting the season hit by the injury bug. Their two best players, Shamet and McDuffie, had off season injuries and may not be ready for the start of the season. If either of them miss significant time, that will be a major blow for a team that's already going to be adapting to a much higher competition level every night.

8. North Carolina
The Tar Heels are possibly the most imbalanced team in my top 25. Their backcourt is largely in-tact if not improved from last year's championship roster. PG Joel Berry is back (supposing this early season injury doesn't linger). That's key. They have Kenny Williams and Theo Pinson at the wing. Pitt transfer Cam Johnson is a 30 mpg veteran sharpshooter. Jalek Felton (G) is a top 30 recruit too. The problem is that they lose almost all of their size. Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks, Tony Bradley, even Justin Jackson. All gone. That puts a lof of pressure on Junior role player Luke Maye and a lackluster group of Freshmen bigs to execute Roy Williams' system.

9. Louisville
OK, maybe Louisville is the real bust candidate. On paper, this is a damn good team. They are loaded with talented wings (VJ King, Deng Adel, UNC-Asheville transfer Dwayne Sutton). PG Quentin Snider is back. Raymond Spalding and Anas Mahmoud give them plenty of size. They have a great recruiting class that won't be relied on from day one. This is an ideal Pitino team.
...Except, it's not a Pitino team anymore. They are Team Turmoil now. There's so many questions surrounding. Will interim coach David Padgett be able to keep them together? How much has Pitino's in-game coaching and pregame preparation been the key to the Cardinals' success? Are any players transferring before the season's over? What players won't be eligible? By the time I post this, I will have already dropped them several places from where I started them at.
Update: It looks like 5 star Freshman Brian Bowen is cleared to play this season. I didn't even consider him in my rankings originally, so I feel pretty good about this top ten pick now.

10. Saint Mary's
This is a bit of a gamble. St. Mary's was a top 15 team last year. They lose two of their starters, including WCC Defensive Player of the Year and leader in minutes played, Joe Rahon. They still have PG Emmett Naar and All Conference 1st Team forwards Jock Landale and Calvin Hermanson. I'm hoping the addition of graduate transfer Cullen Neal makes up for the loss in the back court. Top 10 might be a slight overreach for the Gaels, but I'd be stunned if they weren't a top 25 fixture all season long.

11. Gonzaga
The Bulldogs finished last season as the best team in the country (according to KenPom, not the National Championship banner). They lost their All-Conference 1st team Point Guard and Center. They lost another big to the NBA Draft and a key wing shooter to graduation. And, they are technically a mid-major. They fit the description of a team ready for a big fall. Here's the thing. They over-achieved in 2015-16 as well and lost their top players to graduation and the draft. Then they came back even stronger in 2016-17. There's no way they avoid some sort of decline, but it doesn't have to be a big one. This year, they actually bring back 3 of their top 5 players in minutes played. Neither Josh Perkins or Silas Melson are pure PGs, but the hope is that two combo guards can equal one PG. Jonathan Williams is back, giving them a reliable big man who will be in the running for WCC Player of the Year. What really makes them interesting is a pair of Sophomores who barely cracked the rotation last year and are looking like potential lottery picks now: Killian Tillie and Rui Hachimura. Tillie was the odd man out in a deep front court last year. He will have plenty of opportunities this year as long as he doesn't pick up stupid fouls. There was a little buzz about Hachimura before last season, but he was so raw that he didn't play. After wowing people in international play over the summer, scouts are very high on him. If those two can be anywhere near as good as players as they are as prospects, then Gonzaga will be in the thick of another Final Four run. Oh, and the recruiting class is pretty good and eclectic too.

12. Kentucky
I'm really worried about Kentucky. Calipari rebuilds a lot, but never this much. The Wildcats bring back 12% of their minutes played last season, 7% of their scoring, 15% of their rebounding, and 5% of their assists. The top 6 players are gone from a team that wasn't very deep. There are no Seniors and the only Juniors are guys who only come in when UK is up 20 with a minute left. What they do have is a lot of talent. This team will be long and big. Sophomore forwards Wenyen Gabriel, Sacha Killeya-Jones, and Tai Wynyard will hopefully be ready for a lot more playing time. Gabriel and Killeya-Jones were both top 25 recruits last year. Some mix of Quade Green (G), Hamidou Diallo (G), PJ Washington (F), Kevin Knox (F), and Nick Richards (F) - all 5-star recruits - will be ready to play immediately. Freshman big Jarred Vanderbilt, also a 5-star recruit, should be back from injury mid-season. The biggest concern for this team really is that I don't trust the back  court. I think back to that disastrous 2013 season when none of the guards knew how to quarterback the team. Diallo is more of a combo guard. I don't know about Green. Shai Alexander and Jemarl Baker are two other freshman guards, but their Rivals ratings are in the range of players like Charles Matthews and Stacy Poole from the last few years, who Calipari hasn't had the best of luck developing. This could be a very talented team with no ball-handling. That's why I can't put them in my top ten. They could also blitz the NCAA with size, speed, and athleticism. That's why I have to keep them at least in my top 15.

13. Minnesota
Around this point in the top 25 is when I start running into teams that I think will hit a wall on their improvement. These are teams like Minnesota, who bring back most of their roster, but I question how much better their players can get. With guards Amir Coffey and Nate Mason and Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Reggie Lynch at center being joined by All Conference 3rd team forward Jordan Murphy, the Gophers bring back a great starting lineup. They'll have a good bench and a solid recruiting class, but the idea that they'll jump from 37th last year to 13th is all dependent on those starters getting better. But, was last year the best case scenario? I think they still have some room to grow, but they wouldn't be the first team to surprise everyone one year then falter when all eyes are on them the next. In fact, didn't a Richard Pitino Gophers team do exactly that a couple years ago?

14. Xavier
I'm buying into that Elite Eight run last year. Losing Edmond Sumner to the draft doesn't hurt that much, because Quentin Goodin (who did return) was the PG leading them during the tournament anyway. At the wing, Trevon Bluiett is a beast and will be the best player on the court in most games he plays. JP Macura (G) actually led the team in minutes last year and will be invaluable. Some mix of Kaiser Gates, Sean O'Mara, Tyrique Jones, and Green Bay transfer Kerem Kanter will bolster the front court. They bring in a pair of top 50 recruits as well. The more I'm talking about it, the more I'm thinking I have Xavier too low. Then again, that Elite Eight run could've been a mirage, and they could come crashing back down to Earth this year. We'll see.

15. Florida
The Gators lost more than it at first appears. Half their production across the board is gone, including four year point guard Kasey Hill and versatile forward Devin Robinson. They bring back a solid core though. John Egbunu stabilizes the front court. All Conference 1st Team guard KeVaughn Allen will be joined by the very capable Senior Chris Chiozza. They add a couple solid guard transfers and hopefully get enough natural development from their young bigs to help Egbunu out. The Gators won't blow anyone away, but they'll be consistent.

16. Northwestern
Like Minnesota, I'm not sure how much better Northwestern can get, especially since they've never received this much attention before. They bring back about 80% of their production from last year, including All-Conference guards Bryant McIntosh and Scott Lindsay. They only lost two players from last year's team, both front court players, neither irreplaceable, so I guess you could say they'll be a little thinner up front. That shouldn't be a problem. The only way this team regresses is if they crumble under the weight of expectations.

17. Texas A&M
Missouri and Auburn are the sexier picks for breakout SEC teams, but Texas A&M is the one that really scares me as a UK fan. They return 70-80% of their production across the board. The one starter they lost (G - JC Hampton) can be replaced easily enough by Marquette transfer Duan Wilson and development from younger players. The rest of the lineup is stacked. The trio of 6'10 bigs Robert Williams (SEC Defensive Player of the Year and potential lottery pick next year), Tyler Davis, and Tonny Trocha-Morelos form a terrifying front court. Admon Gilder and DJ Hogg fill the back court nicely. They have a talented recruiting class that should have one or two guys ready to contribute right away (probably Savion Flagg, Rivals' 37th ranked recruit). My big concern is that they should've been better last year with the personnel they had but finished the season 64th. Are they going to under-achieve again?

18. Providence
The Friars are a good case of a team that's going to get better by everyone else getting worse. They bring back 90% or more of their minutes, points, assists, blocks, and steals from last year. All-Conference PG Kyron Cartwright and All-Conference forward Rodney Bullock will lead the team. They have a decent recruiting class that includes a top 50 and a top 100 player. The only concern is that they are still a little light in the back court. They have a lot of 6'7-6'8 forwards, but only a couple proven guards. As long as Cartwright stays on the floor, they should be fine though. Also, their ceiling is a little low.

19. Seton Hall
The inside-out combo of Khadeen Carrinton (G)  and Angel Delgado (F) will carry the team. Desi Rodriguez (F) too. Losing playmaker Madison Jones will hurt some, but they are such a savvy veteran team that I'm sure they'll find a way to overcome it.

20. Cincinnati
The Bearcats have been one of the most consistent teams over the last decade with a string of 8 consecutive NCAA tournament appearances. This looks like another strong season. Basically, they are keeping all of their front court, anchored by Kyle Washington and Gary Clark, and lost their back court. I'm assuming players like Jarron Cumberland, the AAC 6th man of the year can step up in the front court well enough to let the front court do its damage.

21. TCU
You may not realize this, but TCU was actually a top 30 team last year (after being #136 in 2015-16!). They return about 75% of their production from last year. Essentially, they keep their starting lineup in tact and their 7th man and lose the entire rest of the bench. The recruiting class is nothing special, so they'll be relying on the continued development of guards Alex Robinson and Jaylen Fisher and hope that Big East All-Conference Center Vladimir Brodziansky continues to be effective there.

22. Creighton
Creighton loses Justin Patton to the NBA draft, Isaiah Zeirden and Cole Huff to graduation, and Mo Watson to injury and exhausted eligibility, and I have them improving over last year? What the hell? Well, first of all, I make these ranking in a vacuum, so I didn't realize it at the time. Second, let me explain myself. I expect Big East All-Conference 1st team guard Marcus Foster and Big East co-Defensive Player of the Year, guard Khyri Thomas to go into beast mode all season long. Syracuse transfer Kaleb Joseph (G) will hopefully benefit from the change of scenery. Hopefully senior Toby Hegner or freshman Jacob Epperson can shore up the front court. Otherwise, coach Greg McDermott has always been good at surrounding stars with good role players.

23. Rhode Island
This is another situation where I'm hoping the guards can be so good that it won't matter that the front court is limited. The Rams finished last season 34th and only lost two players. Sadly, those players were their starting front court: Kuran Iverson and A-10 Defensive Player of the Year Hussan Martin. Beyond that, the outlook is great. They bring back 76% of their minutes, 71% of the scoring, 82% of the assists, and 81% of the steals. EC Matthews somehow still has another year of eligibility left and will lead the team. Senior guards Jared Terrell and Stanford Robinson will school younger competition. Forwards Cyril Langevine and Nicola Akele just need to form a serviceable front court and the guards will do the rest.

24. Purdue
How much did Caleb Swanigan matter to last year's Boilermakers? Because, other than him, the personnel losses are minimal. He was one of the 3 or 4 best players in college basketball though. Purdue is currently comprised of a bunch of complementary pieces that are not nearly as effective without a star at the center. Vince Edwards (F) hopes to be that star in his Senior season. I'm not convinced, but if he proves me wrong, that would increase Purdue's overall potential tremendously. Purdue still has a backcourt that can defend but lacks great playmakers. Isaac Haas isn't as talented as the bigs he's played behind for the last three years, but you know the old saying: You can't teach that kind of size. The recruiting class is nothing special. I'm not sure how this team gets much better than where I have them.

25. WVU
The Mountaineers were the 7th best team in the country last year and still have Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, Jevon Carter (G) to lead their pressing attack. They bring back Esa Ahmad (F) and Daxter Miles Jr. (G) too. That's a solid core. They lost nearly half the minutes played from last year and over half of their rebounds and assists. The recruiting class is pretty lackluster and there are no obvious breakout candidates from the Sophomore class. Bob Huggins came up with Press Virginia as a way to get around talent deficiencies. I think this is the year it finally hits a break point.

Major Sleepers
There's a bunch of teams I wasn't comfortable moving into my top 25 that have a chance to make a big leap. If any teams make me look like a fool when I look back on this in April, these are the ones that jump out.

Auburn
This of course comes with the caveat that everything could change for them based on this FBI investigation. Supposing the team stays together, they have a frightening collection of talent. They'll be led by stellar sophomores Austin Wiley (C), Daniel Purifoy (F), Mustapha Heron (G), and Jared Harper (G). Wiley and Heron are both former 5-star recruits looking to break out. They bring in former All-Conference guard from Presbyterian, DeSean Murray, to settle the back court and have a pair of top 70 recruits coming in. If those Sophomores follow even a normal development curve, Auburn could be hanging out at the top of the SEC standings.
Update: Wiley and Purifoy have been indefinitely suspended as Auburn sorts through the FBI investigation. I'm keeping the tigers here, because they aren't outright off the team and I still like a lot of their pieces.

UCLA
The Bruins lost a lot from last year's team. Lonzo Ball, TJ Leaf, and Ike Anigbogu left for the NBA draft and Bryce Alford and Isaac Hamilton graduated. That only leaves 6th man Aaron Holiday (G), and Senior bigs Thomas Welsh and Gyorgy Goloman for any continuity. It's unlikely that Steve Alford strikes gold twice with his incoming Freshmen, especially since no one in this recruiting class is as highly rated as Ball or Leaf last year, but he's bringing in a large recruiting class with top 30 and top 50 talent in it. If the likes of Jaylen Hands (PG), Kris Wilkes (F), and Cody Riley (F) are ready to play right away, there's just enough Senior leadership and experience to make this team a wildcard. Also, mentioning them here allows me yet another chance to mention my favorite player name in college basketball. That would be Sophomore guard, coming back from a redshirt season, a former top 30 recruit, Prince Ali (Fabulous He! Ali Ababwa). Who knows, maybe he'll break into the rotation this season.

Missouri
This the sexy sleeper pick of the season (i.e. most likely to be overrated), so I had to include them. After all, Cunzo Martin landed #1 ranked recruit Michael Porter (F). His brother Jontay Porter (F), another 5-star recruit, reclassified to join him this year. That also convinced #45 recruit Jeremiah Tilmon (F) to join the Tigers. Missouri has a strong foundation, bringing back about 2/3s of the production from last year. Here's my concern. They were the 156th ranked team last year. They weren't good. I looked at other teams who made big jumps in the last few years...
New Mexico went from 200th in 2012 to 23rd in 2013. Notre Dame went from 96th in 2014 to 9th in 2015. California went from 112th in 2015 to 28th in 2016. TCU went from 136th in 2016 to 29th in 2017. New Mexico, Notre Dame, and TCU were all cases of a team gelling with largely the same core of players (Notre Dame also got PG Jerian Grant back from an injury). California got an infusion of talent with Ivan Rabb and Jaylen Brown, but they were joining a pretty strong group of experienced guards. Missouri's recruits are all bigs. Big bigs. Not combo forwards. Missouri is returning some experienced players, but no one great in the back court. Experienced mediocre back court and uber-talented inexperienced front court is a great mix for minimizing potential. This team is looking a lot like the Markell Fulz Washington team or the Ben Simmons LSU team. I'm not betting on them.

Nevada
The Wolf Pack will be tough to predict. They finished last season 54th. Three All-Conference players are gone, including Cam Oliver, who left early for the NBA draft. They bring back only 34% of their points, 49% of their rebounding, and 47% of their minutes from last season. So what are they doing here? Well, Nevada played the transfer market. In addition to returning Lindsey Drew (PG), Jordan Caroline (G/F), and Elijah Foster (F) - all major contributors last year, they bring in the Martin twins (both forwards) from NC St., Kendall Stephen (G) from Purdue, Darien Williams (C) from St. John's, and Hallice Cooke (G) from Iowa St. This is a combustible mix that could gel quickly and blast through the Mountain West or never quit fit together and implode. Keep an eye out.

Virginia
The Cavaliers are more sleepy than most sleepers with their slow pace and lack of stars. Thet've been a top 12 team the last four years despite losing players each year who looked like the only thing keeping them together the previous year. It really does look like the last straw this year though. They lost about half of their production all-around. PG London Perrantes was the only thing last year keeping the offense even remotely functional and Marial Shayok was a perfect glue-guy for Tony Bennett's system. There is no obvious star on the current lineup. They are going to need a lot of Sophomores to step up in a big way. Looking at their roster, I don't see how this could be another top 12 (or top 25) squad, but I've been wrong so many times before that I needed to mention them.

Mid-Major Sleepers
This is the most entertaining list to make. What team that no one is talking about stands the best chance to make some noise? Here are the best candidates.

Bucknell
The Bison finished the season 76th last year. Everyone who matters is back. That includes Patriot League Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year, Center Nana Foulland. They'll also have All Conference players Stephen Brown (G), Kimbal Mackenzie (G), and Zach Thomas (F). That means, 90% over their minutes, points, assists, steals, and blocks are back. This always comes with the caveat that they might've already hit their ceiling. Only time will tell that.

Vermont
The Catamounts finished last season 63rd and bring back American East Conference Player of the Year Tra Bell-Haynes (G), Freshman of the Year Anthony Lamb (F), and All Conference players Ermie Duncan (G) and Payton Henson (F). The did lose Defensive Player of the Year Dre Willis and 6th man Darren Payen. That's a more than solid returning core though.

Charleston
They are another team with a top 100 finish last year that brings back all their significant players. About 90% of their production is back and they have a quartet of All Conference players returning. The only thing they are missing is a guy who has shown up on NBA Draft boards as a savvy 2nd Rd. pick.

Middle Tennessee
The Blue Raiders were the mid-major darling of last season (Note: Gonzaga, Wichita St, and Saint Mary's don't count anymore), finishing the season as a top 50 team and even winning a game in the NCAA tournament (again). It's hard to imagine that they will get better after losing their two best players: forwards Reggie Upshaw and Jacorey Williams. They bring back about half of their production from last season and have a strong backcourt in Giddy Potts and Tyrik Dixon. Also, Alabama transfer Nick King, a former top 50 recruit, shuld make up for some of the personel losses.

New Mexico St.
If I'm being honest, I just like the Aggies. You can make a strong argument that they will fall big after finishing last season 84th. They lost their coach for the second year in a row. Player of the Year Ian Baker (G) is gone. They bring back only about 40% of their minutes, points, assists, and steals and  16% of their 3pt. shooting. Guard Matt Taylor jumped ship a year early to not get drafted in the NBA Draft and several other players transferred.
So, why do I like them? It starts with guard Sidy Ndir, who missed most of last season with an injury. He's been an NBA prospect at points in his time with the Aggies and formed a deadly duo with Baker. If he can return without the injury nagging him, he's a WAC Player of the Year candidate. They also add former SWAC Player of the Year Zach Lofton (F) to the roster and former top 150 recruit AJ Harris from Ohio St. Their front court rotation is in tact from last year with Jemerrio Jones, Eli Chuha, and Jonathan Wilkins all returning. That only puts the team six players deep. They'll need some freshmen or junior college transfers to step up, but I think they are a sneaky good team this year.

No comments:

Post a Comment