This Year:
Top 25
Last Year:
Top 25 / Conference Picks
2015-16:
Top 25 / Conference Picks
2014-15:
Top 25 / Conference Picks
By the way, any time I mention Conference rankings, I'm basing it off Kenpom, not final Conference W-L record. Whenever I mention recruiting rankings, I'm referring to Rivals.
The Power Five
ACC
1. Duke - They are stacked with 5-star Freshmen
at nearly every position, including top 10 recruits Trevon Duval (PG), Wendell
Carter (F), and Marvin Bagley (F). Senior guard Grayson Allen, their only
returning regular contributor from last year, gives them some flexibility. He
can either take over games as the lead guard or work off the ball as a shooter
while the kids play. They are a bit of a boom or bust team, but their ceiling
is so high that I have to put them at the top.
2. North Carolina - Roy Williams has always been
about balanced lineups, which is a problem with this very imbalanced roster.
The Tar Heels are deep with guard talent but thin in the front court. Players
like Joel Berry (PG), Kenny Williams (Wing), Theo Pinson (Wing), and Pitt-transfer
Cameron Johnson (Wing) give them a very high floor. If they can find a couple
serviceable big men, they could be great.
3. Louisville - Before all the controversy,
Louisville was looking like a National Championship sleeper. Quentin Snider
(PG), VJ King (Wing), Deng Adel (Wing), Raymond Spalding (Big), and Anas Osama
Mahmoud (Big) looked like one of the best starting lineups (or core 5) in the
country, and an impressive recruiting class and UNC-Asheville transfer Dwayne
Sutton (Wing) gave them a great bench. All that is still true, but I'm not sure
how much the team was held together by Rick Pitino. Perhaps muscle memory will
carry them or interim coach David Padgett turns out to be terrific and the FBI
investigation doesn't distract them or hurt morale at all. Those are some big
ifs.
Sleeper: Virginia - All logical examinations of
the Cavaliers tell me they should take a nosedive this year. They were
offensively challenged last year and lost their four-year Point Guard London
Perrantes along with several rotation players. There are no obvious stars on
the current lineup either. All that said, Tony Bennett's system has been known
to terrify regular season opponents and someone always seems to step up. A top
3 finish wouldn't be crazy.
Also Worth Mentioning: Miami, Notre Dame - Miami brings back a lot
of talented players (Ja'Quan Newor and Bruce Brown in the backcourt in
particular) and has a good recruiting class. I'm not sold on their ability to
make the leap to elite. Notre Dame has a couple great Seniors in Bonzie Colson
and Matt Farrell. They had some big losses last year though. It's hard to see
them not taking a step back this year.
Bottom of the Barrel: Pittsburgh - It might be a
bit much to expect them to fall all the way beneath Boston College, but I think
they can do it. They lost almost every significant player from last year, many
via transfer, which is never a good sign. This will be a Freshmen-heavy team
and it's not a great recruiting class. It's hard to see how they aren't bottom
3 in the ACC even in the best case scenario.
Big 12
1. Kansas - Until Kansas doesn't win the
Big 12, I'd be a fool to pick against them. Devonte Graham shouldn't miss a
beat taking over as the PG. Big man Udoka Azubuike is back from injury. Mississippi St. transfer Malik Newman (G) is
one of the biggest impact transfers in the country. Top 15 recruit Billy
Preston shores up the frontcourt (although Bill Self has a dicey history with
highly rated Freshman bigs). Young
Senior Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk is a very intriguing prospect who might
finally be ready to break out. Only a couple of these players need to follow
through on their promise to make Kansas the most imposing team in the Big 12.
2. TCU - The Horned Frogs jumped over 100 spots
on Kenpom between 2016 and 2017 and were still only the 5th best team in the
Big 12 last year, so maybe they've hit their ceiling already. They have a solid
point guard and center and most of their rotation is back. The freshman class
has some good recruits. Jamie Dixon seems to be reinvigorated after the jump from
Pitt to TCU. I just feel good about this team.
3. West Virginia - "Press Virginia"
brings back Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Jevon Carter. That sentence
alone can secure a top 3 finish. They lose some key depth though, especially in
the front court, so I don't see them repeating in the top 10 in the country
again. With the other teams at the top of the conference also taking steps
back, WVU should be able to hold onto a top 3 finish.
Sleeper: Texas - Look. Texas wasn't very good
last year. There were loaded with talent and still only finished 70th. Getting
5-star big man Mohamed Bamba will fill some needed front court holes. It's not
very often that a top-rated big turns a team around though, no matter how good
he is. That will have to come from the guard trio of Eric Davis, Kerwin Roach,
and Andrew Jones. I think Shaka Smart as a coach is great at getting the most
out of mid-level recruits. This will be his best chance to prove that he can do
it with top level recruits. On paper, this team should be really good.
Also Worth Mentioning: Baylor, Oklahoma - Baylor mainly just lost
Jonathan Motley from last year's team, but that's a lot. The inside-out combo
of Manu Lacomte (G) and Jo Lual-Acuil (C) is a good starting point. Perhaps
we're in for another "way better than they should be" season.
Oklahoma finished last year 65th. They do bring back most of their rotation
though and add 16th rated recruit Trae Young (PG).
Bottom of the Barrel: Iowa St. - The Cyclones
have been a fun team for a lot of years, so I really hope I'm wrong about this.
They lost their top four player from last year, who they were incredibly
reliant on. As always, they bring in a lot of transfers (although none are the
high level transfers they got in the past). Also, 24th rated Freshman Lindell
Wigginton gives them some hope. The Big 12 is just a tough conference, so it
doesn't take much regression to be at the bottom.
Big 10
1. Michigan St. - I'm uncomfortable expecting
such a big jump by a team that finished 40th last year. Thankfully, the
Spartans have the perfect storm coming. The good kind. They have a spectacular
Sophomore class, including Miles Bridges, who could've been a lottery pick in
the NBA Draft over the summer. Their big weakness last year was the front
court. Well, they have two Senior big
men back from injury and 6th rated Freshman big Jaren Jackson to fix that. They
lost very little from last year's team and have the back court they ended last
season with in tact.
2. Minnesota - The Golden Gophers bring 5 20MPG
players back from last year's surprise top 40 team. That includes All Freshman
Point Guard Amir Coffey and Big 10 Defensive Players of the Year Reggie Lynch.
The only thing that could get in their way is falling under the weight of
actual expectations this season.
3. Northwestern - The Wildcats were just as good
as the Gophers last year and lost even less from their rotation. I worry some
about their front court (or lack thereof), so that's why I'm keeping Minnesota
ahead of them.
Sleeper: Indiana - I'll admit, I partly just want
IU to be good, but hear me out. Yes, three starters left for the NBA. James
Blackmon was nice for scoring but awful on defense. OG Anunoby was injured at
the end of last season anyway. Losing Thomas Bryant does hurt. There's no
talking around that. That said, the Hoosiers have an exciting new coach who
might actually teach some defense. SG Robert Johnson should be more effective
without playing next to Blackmon. 5th year point guard Josh Newkirk is back. Stretch
4 Collin Hartman is back from a redshirt season due to injury. I kind of think
forward Juwan Morgan could be a breakout player now that he's out of Anunoby's
shadow. If all the pieces fit together the right way, the team could be
addition thorough subtraction...Probably not, but at least let me enjoy the
non-conference schedule before dashing my hopes.
Also Worth Mentioning: Purdue, Wisconsin - The Boilermakers bring
back most of their core except for Caleb Swanigan. Maybe Vince Edwards will
step up in his absence, Otherwise, they'll be a team without an alpha. Is this
the year that Wisconsin finally misses the tournament? They lost three starters
and don't have a great recruiting class. Can Ethan Happ really carry the whole
team?
Bottom of the Barrel: Rutgers - Last year's worst
team isn't showing any signs of getting better.
Pac 12
1. Arizona - Senior Point guard. An army of
talented wings. A big man with experience. A terrific recruiting class,
including DeAndre Ayton, who is expected to be a top 5 pick in the draft.
Transfers from lower conferences looking to make a splash. Sure they lost a
bunch of guys to graduation, transfer, and the draft, but they are stacked with
all the kinds of players they need to dominate the PAC 12.
2. USC - I just don't trust the Trojans. They
return everyone of significance from last year's team, including big man,
Chimezie Metu. Duke transfer Derryck Thornton is eligible too. The recruiting
class is even pretty decent. I'm not sure I see them being able to jump from
53rd in the country last year to top of the conference. They are a high upside
team though. That's for sure.
3. UCLA - Last year was kind of a fluke. Freshmen
classes normally aren't that good. This year's Freshmen aren't likely to
replace that production. And, they lost some key players to graduation. As much
as I like the inside-out tandem of Aaron Holiday and Thomas Welsh, I don't see
enough on this roster to be a threat. The PAC 12 is pretty top-heavy this
year.That's the only reason I have UCLA staying this high.
Sleeper: Oregon - They lost basically all of that
Final Four team from last year. Only one starter is back (Payton Pritchard -
SG). They'll be relying a lot on a big recruiting class and a bunch of
transfers. That's almost the definition of a wildcard.
Also Worth Mentioning: Stanford - They weren't even a top 100 team
last year. They return some key pieces though, including 1st Team All
Conference big man Reid Travis. They have that kind of roster that's very Notre
Dame-esque. They are old and have a bunch of former top 150 recruits. They
could be a surprising NCAA Tournament team if nothing else.
Bottom of the Barrel: Washington St. - They were
so damn bad last year and don't have any new or returning players of note.
Washington and California lost more but still look better.
SEC
1. Kentucky - If it's Kentucky or the field to
win the SEC, I'm picking the field. It's hard to pick against them though. The
recruiting class is big and talented. The best case scenario of the team is a
frightening prospect with size and
length that could terrorize the league. The worst case scenario is, well,
remember 2013? If you don't, that team had a lot of talented players but no
guards to run the offense. It was ugly.
2. Florida - If I was playing it safe, I'd pick
Florida to win the SEC. The have the highest floor of any team in the league.
John Egbunu, back from injury, will be one of the best bigs in the country. The
back court pair of Chris Chiozza and KeVaughn Allen should be great, although I
do wonder if either is really a point guard. The rest of the lineup I'm not
sold on. They should all be good. None of they are high upside guys though.
3. Texas A&M - I'm really excited about the
Aggies. They finished last season outside of the top 60, but they bring back a
lot. Robert Williams (could've gone in the NBA Draft lottery this summer) and
Tyler Davis will be one of the best front courts in the country (top 10, at
least). DJ Hogg, a big wing, looks good too. The recruiting class is strong.
I'd like a little more talent in the back court to put them any higher. Admon
Gilder and Marquette transfer Duane Wilson are a good start.
Sleeper: Missouri - Obviously. New coach. Top
rated recruit in the country (Michael Porter Jr. - 6'10 forward). His 5-star
rated brother (Jontay Porter - 6'11 forward). Another top 50 recruit (Jeremiah
Tilmon - 6'10 forward). Top 3 players in minutes last year are back. MAAC
All-Conference guard Kassius Robertson transferring in. But this was a team
that finished 156th last year. They would need to make an almost unheard of
leap to finish at the top of the conference. Also, something that troubles me:
all these big name recruits are front court players. That's great, but this is
a guard's league. Unless Robertson makes a perfect transition to a high major
program, I don't think that talent will be maximized.
Also Worth Mentioning: Auburn, Georgia - The SEC is filled with high
upside teams this year. Auburn will have one of the best Sophomore classes this
side of Michigan State, with Mustapha Heron, Austin Wiley, Daniel Purifoy, and
Jared Harper all potential break out candidates. Supposing the FBI
investigation doesn't bury them (a condition that applies to almost all teams
this year), they could make a huge jump this year. Georgia has almost the
opposite concern. They have a bunch of Juniors and Seniors with no big breakout
candidates. Big man Yanten Maten is a potential SEC Player of the Year
candidate though.
Bottom of the Barrel: LSU - A new coach is a nice
start. I don't think any coach wasted as much talent as Johnny Jones over the
last 5 seasons, so anything is an improvement. The Tigers were awful, even by
Missouri standards last year and don't bring in any high level recruits to get
them out of the the gutter. They're probably a season or two away from not be
terrible.
The "If It Wasn't for Football" Majors
American Athletic Conference
1. Wichita St. - Early season injuries be damned,
Wichita will win the AAC in their first season. The top 7 players are back from
a severely underrated team. They'll be putting together one of the best 5-man
lineups in the country. The recruiting
class isn't great. It doesn't have to be. This is an upperclassman-dominated
team. Even PG Landry Shamet is a redshirt Sophomore (i.e. technically a Junior).
I wouldn't be surprised to see them make the Final Four this season.
2. Cincinnati - The Bearcats have been incredibly
consistent for nearly a decade. They're always ready to replace whoever
graduates. The trio of forwards Jacob Evans, Gary Clark, and Kyle Washington
are going to be great. I'm a little worried about the back court, which will be
calling on bench players like Justin Jenifer and Jarron Cumberland to step up.
3. UCF - 7'6 center Taco Fall is the reigning AAC
Defensive Player of the Year. It's impossible to game plan against him. Then add
a bevy of transfer from good programs and you have a potentially frightening
team. I'm tempted to even put them ahead of Cincy.
Sleeper: Connecticut - The Huskies have been an
"every other year" team for a while now. They greatly underwhelmed
last year, so that means this year they're ready for an upswing. Coach Kevin
Ollie is bringing in a bunch of mid-major transfers. All Conference First Team wing Jalen Adams is
the team leader. Terry Larrier (F) is back from injury and might be the most
important player on the team. Same with Alterique Gilbert(G), also injured
early last season. Last year was pretty much the worst-cast scenario for the
Huskies. That could make a lot of people (including myself) sleep on them.
Also Worth Mentioning: SMU - I was surprised to realize that the
Mustangs were the 11th best team in the country last season. They lost three of
their four All Conference players from last year, including AAC Player of the
Year Semi Ojeleye. PG Shake Milton is back. That's nice. A couple rotation guys
too. Otherwise, they'll be relying on a lot of Freshmen from a mediocre
recruiting class. I'm expecting them to fall hard, but maybe they turn out to
have more depth than I'm seeing.
Bottom of the Barrel: USF - They finished last
season 292nd in the country and lost 7 players to transfer. That says
everything.
Atlantic 10
1. Rhode Island - The question here is "Is
the A10 a weak enough conference that all you need is a great back court to win
it?" The Rams lost their front court - former top 30 recruit Kuran Iverson
and A10 Defensive Player of the Year Hussan Martin - but they have an
exceptional backcourt quartet in Jarvis Garrett, Jared Terrell, EC Matthews,
and Stanford Robinson. I think they'll find a serviceable enough front court to
let those guards dominate the competition.
2. St. Bonaventure - The Bonnies are the trendy
pick to win the A10 due to having NBA prospect Jaylen Adams running things. I
think that's asking for a little too much improvement from a team that loses
20% of their production. They'll be good, just not quite good enough.
3. VCU - The Rams have been slowly losing the
talent they acquired with Shaka Smart in charge. They still have one of the
best collection of recruits in the A10. They don't have much depth, so
De'Riante Jenkins (G) and Justin Tillman (F) will really need to perform.
Sleeper: Dayton -
Losing coach Archie Miller hurts, as does losing 4 All-Conference
players. The Flyers had a deep roster
though, and they bring in Kostas Anteokounmpo, younger brother of Giannis.
Perhaps Miller's influence will linger for a while.
Also Worth Mentioning: St. Joseph's - They were pretty bad last year
(183rd in the country), but they bring back most of their rotation, including
All Freshman forward Charles Brown Jr.
Bottom of the Barrel: Duquesne - Don't gtet me
wrong. Fordham will be pretty bad too. There's just so little to begin with
that even an improved core is a bad core for the Dukes.
Big East
1. Villanova - Jay Wright has this program
humming. Despite losing Big East Player of the Year Josh Hart and key bigs Kris
Jenkins and Darryl Reynolds, the Wildcats have a great team coming back. Jalen
Brunson (G) is ready to be the new team leader. They still have co-Defensive
Player of the Year Mikal Bridges at the wing. The real key will be if redshirt
Freshman Omari Spellman will be ready right away at center. They have never
relied on their bigs, but it's nice to have a couple to balance things out.
2. Xavier - The magic trick of that Elite Eight
run is that PG Edmund Sumner was already lost to injury, so his decision to go
pro doesn't change things that much this year. Quentin Goodin is back to run
the point. Seniors Trevon Bluiett and JP Macura are ready to do some damage at
the wing. In fact, this team goes as far as Bluiett takes them. They even have
a lot of frontcourt depth returning or transferring in, even though I don't
think there's a star among them. I have some slight pause because the guard depth
isn't great past the starting lineup, unless top 40 Freshman, Paul Scruggs (G)
fits into the rotation quickly. I have a hard time seeing them topping
Villanova in the end, but they can give them a good run.
3. Providence - The Friars bring back every
player of note from last year including Kyron Cartwright (PG), Jalen Lindset
(F), and Rodney Bullock (F). They supplement that with a decent recruiting
class. I question the team's real upside, but they have such a solid core that
it's hard to see them any lower than maybe 4th in the conference.
Sleeper: Seton Hall - Angel Delgado, Desi
Rodriguez, and Khadeen Carrington have been around forever. This could be one
of those Senior dominated teams that beats more opponents than you'd expect
just due to experience.
Also Worth Mentioning: Creighton, Butler, Marquette - There are a
lot of teams in the Big East that interest me. Creighton lost a bunch of
Seniors to graduation and Freshman Justin Patton to the NBA Draft, but the back
court duo of Marcus Foster (All Conference 1st Team) and Khyri Thomas
(Co-Defensive Player of the Year) are good enough to carry the team. I'm a
little lower on Butler than some of the polls because I worry about any team
that loses its point guard and center.
They lost their coach too. Kamar Baldwin (G) and Kelen Martin (F) are a good
inside-out combo though. Marquette is quietly consistent. They actually
finished last season 32nd in the country without a real star. They lost a lot
of players and bring in a decent recruiting class. I'm curious to see if All
Freshman point guard Markus Howard can make a leap this year.
Bottom of the Barrel: DePaul - They've been a
punchline in the league for so long and don't appear to be getting any better.
The only conceivable path to a non-last place finish is if Georgetown tanks
super hard.
Mountain West
1. Nevada - They're a tricky team to predict.
They lost two All Conference players to graduation and one to the NBA draft.
Normally, you'd expect a big decline. They still have All Conference wing
Jordan Caroline though and bring in a ton of great transfers, including the
Martin brothers from NC State. The Mountain West is weak enough that that
should be enough to stay on top.
2. San Diego St. - The Aztecs will make it tough
for Nevada though. Supposing Steve Fisher's defense stays instilled in them,
they might finally have enough offensive firepower to really be good. San
Francisco transfer Devin Watson will be joining them. Leading scorer Trey Kell
returns. And maybe this is the year when 5 star forward Malik Pope (now a
Senior) finally follows through on his potential.
3. Boise St. - First team All Conference wing Chandler Hutchinson is back
on a mostly in tact roster.
Sleeper: UNLV - I'm probably being fooled by all
the talent. It's happened before with the Runnin' Rebels. They bring in 12th
rated freshman Brandon McCoy (C) and one of the best junior college transfers
in the country, Shakur Juiston (F). Milwaukee transfer Jordan Johnson (G) was
an All Conference player in the Horizon League. They even keep 3rd Team All
Conference guard Jovan Mooring. This is a team that barely finished in the top
250 last year and lost nine players, important players, to graduation or
transfer.How big of a leap can they really make?
Bottom of the Barrel: San Jose St. - Air Force
stands a good chance to be the worst too. San Jose St. can barely put together
a full lineup of players who played last season.
The True Mid-Majors
Missouri Valley Conference
Favorite: Missouri St. - Alize Johnson (C) is a
legit NBA prospect who will terrorize the league. The rest of the lineup looks
solid too.
Runner-Up: Loyola-Chicago - They bring back 3
30mpg players from last year. The front court is a little light though.
Sleeper: Valparaiso - Losing Alec Peters (MVC Player
of the Year) hurts a lot. A lot of the core is otherwise back and OK St.
transfer Joe Burton should be a nice addition.
Bottom of the Barrel: Drake - The worst team in
the conference last year isn't looking much better.
West Coast Conference
Favorite: St. Mary's - This year, the WCC is more
of a toss-up. The Gaels look like the safer pick though. More of their core is
in tact. Losing WCC Defensive Player of the Year Joe Rohan should be offset
some by the arrival of Ole Miss grad transfer Cullen Neal. They still have PG
Emmett Naar and All Conference 1st team forwards Calvin Hermanson and Jock
Londale. I guess I could knock them for not having a recruiting class to speak
of, but they never do.
Runner-Up: Gonzaga - The Zags are one of the most
curious teams in the country. They were the best team in the country last year
according to Kenpom. They lost Nigel Williams Goss and Zach Collins to the NBA
Draft and Jordan Matthews and Przemek Karnowski to graduation. That would be
enough to decimate most teams. They bring back a stable back court of Josh
Perkins and Silas Melson though. Neither are stars, but they should be more
than enough for WCC competition. 1st Team All Conference big man Johnathan
Williams is back and ready to be the star of the team. Somehow, they have two
NBA prospects in Rui Hachimura and Killian Tillie ready to step up after barely
cracking the rotation last year. This all comes with a big recruiting class
that likely has a player or two ready to play big minutes. On paper, they look
better than they will probably be this season though. That's my hunch.
Sleeper: BYU - This is a three team conference
until some other team wants to step up and change that. Given that, TJ Haws and
Yoeli Childs lead the wildcard in the WCC. They were really hurt by big man
Eric Mika deciding to go pro after last season.
Bottom of the Barrel: Portland - You'll find that
not many bottom teams have an interesting story. Portland has no All Conference
players. Only four players from last year's roster are back. There are a lot of
bad teams on the WCC, but none that bad.
Sunbelt Conference
Favorite: Louisiana Lafayette - This is the Sunbelt
team with the highest upside. They've got a lot of major conference transfers
and a few All Conference players coming back.
Runner-Up: Georgia Southern - They'll be led by a pair of 1st team All
Conference guards (Tookie Brown and Ike Smith).
Sleeper: Texas Arlington - They still have
conference Player of the Year Kevin Hervey (F) and 2nd Team All Conference PG
Erick Neal. They were by far the best team in the conference last year. Most of
the rest of the rotation is gone, so they'll need a few players to step up.
It'll actually be quite a competition between the top 3-4 teams in the
conference this year.
Bottom of the Barrel: Appalachian St. - 3rd Team
All Conference guard Ronshad Allen-Shabazz is the only proven back court player
on the team. They have an army of forwards, which doesn't do as much good if no
one is there to get them the ball. This is a surprisingly deep league.
Ivy League
Favorite: Harvard - Princeton is the more popular
pick, but I actually like Harvard to win the Ivy. It sucks losing Siyani
Chambers to graduation, but Tommy Amaker recruits at a higher level than anyone
in the Ivy League. They have a bunch of Sophomores looking to step up,
including last year's Freshman of the Year Bryce Aiken (G).
Runner-Up: Princeton - While it's nice that
Defensive Player of the Year Myles Stephens is back, they lost two other 1st Team All Conference
players from last year.
Sleeper: Yale - There aren't a lot of dynamic
rosters in the Ivy League. Yale earns its sleeper status because they got Makai
Mason back from injury after leading the team in scoring in 2015-16.
Bottom of the Barrel: Brown - They were the
second worst team in the conference last year then lost 1st Team All Conference
guard Steven Spieth to graduation.
Conference USA
Favorite: Middle Tennessee - I'm not ready to let
go. They've been tournament darlings the last two years. They lost their two
best players/bigs, including CUSA Player of the Year Jacorey Williams, which
leaves an opening for someone else to pull ahead of them. They still have Giddy Potts (G) and Alabama
transfer Nick King should help.
Runner-Up: Louisiana Tech - They aren't far
behind Middle Tenn. and return some good Sophomore guards as well as a strong
defensive wing in Jacobi Boykins.
Sleeper: Western Kentucky - They'd be a lot
better is top ten recruit Mitchell Robinson decided to stay instead of leaving
the team twice over the summer. Even still, they have a good trio of transfers
in Dwight Coleby (Kansas), Darius Thompson (Virginia), and Lamonte Bearden
(Buffalo). 2nd team All Conference big man Justin Johnson is back and they have
top 60 recruit Josh Anderson (SG). It's really all a matter of how quickly this
team gels.
Bottom of the Barrel: Florida International -
They didn't have any All Conference players last year. They lost most of their
team. The recruiting class is pretty meh. There's nothing to get excited about.
They Have Some Good Teams
Mid-American Conference
Summit League
Western Athletic Conference
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Horizon League
Favorite: Western Michigan - There's no obvious
top team. Thomas Wilder is the only 1st Team All Conference player returning
this year in the MAC, and W-Mich only lost one player last year (although that
player was the second best player on the team).
Runner-Up: Buffalo - Missouri transfer Wes Clark
will have to make up for the graduation of Willie Connor and All Conference
wing Blake Hamilton. Otherwise, most of the rotation that made them the third
best team in the conference is back. And, Jeremy Harris is one of the best
junior college transfers in the country.
Sleeper: Eastern Michigan - Rule of thumb: The
sleeper is normally the team with the most new players. E-Mich has five
transfers and four freshmen joining 2nd team All Conference center James Thompson.
Bottom of the Barrel: Miami (OH) - They were the
worst team in the conference last year and Freshman of the Year Michael
Weathers transferred. That's a bad sign.
Southern Conference
Favorite: Furman - SoCo Player of the Year Devin
Sibley (G) is back on the conference's 2nd best team from last year. They have
great back court depth and some decent front court players too.
Runner-Up: Samford - They lose basically no one
and introduce Alabama transfer Justin Coleman (G).
Sleeper: ETSU - Last year's best SoCo team will
rely on transfers again, but lower caliber transfers than last year.
Bottom of the Barrel: VMI - They'll sure score a
lot of points but they don't have any real high upside players. They were one
of the worst teams in the country last year and are likely to be again.
Favorite: South Dakota St. - Mike Daum is still
somehow only a Junior and is by far the best player in the conference. He
doesn't have much else around him. He may not need it. He's really good.
Runner-Up: South Dakota - They also have their
own 1st team All Conference player in Matt Mooney (G). They have a little more
coming back than SDSU. But, SDSU didn't lose anyone as good as 1st team All
Conference forward Tyler Flack.
Sleeper:
IPFW - There aren't any real sleepers. The Mastadons do have 1st Team
All Conference wing John Konchar and a bunch of freshmen. Sleepers tend to have
a lot of fresh faces to mix with known talent.
Bottom of the Barrel: Oral Roberts - Maybe
Freshman of the Year Emmanuel Nzekwesi will be good enough to keep them out of
the cellar, or maybe Nezekwesi became FOY because the team was so bad that he
got a bigger opportunity than he should've.
Favorite: New Mexico St. - The Aggies lost the
WAC Player of the Year Ian Baker and their coach. Five players transferred and
one other left early to go pro. However, they have an All Conference front
court. Texas Southern transfer Zach Lofton was the SWAC Player of the Year
before heading to NM St. Sidy Ndir was on his way to an All Conference campaign
before getting injured last year. And there's Ohio St. transfer AJ Harris.
They're getting several junior college transfers as well. This isn't the same
team as last year, but there's a lot to be excited about.
Runner-Up: Utah Valley - Another team with a lot
of transfers. Upperclassmen dominated team, including All Defensive big man Isaac Nelson.
Sleeper: Seattle - Four D-I transfers and
Freshman of the Year Matej Kavas (wing). They lost a lot of players, although
none of them were All Conference players.
Bottom of the Barrel: UMKC - Like I'm not going
to find a way to mention the Kangoroos. Other than their great mascot, there's
nothing about this team worth talking about this year.
Favorite: Fairfield - They have a strong
backcourt and an upperclassmen dominated starting lineup.
Runner-Up: Iona - They'll be relying a lot on
some transfers but have a nice, young rotation to mix in.
Sleeper: Monmouth - They've graduated most of
the players that have made them mid-major darlings the last couple years.
Mainly just Micah Seabord (G) is left. Who knows though? Maybe the young guys
picked something up from the old guys.
Bottom of the Barrel: Quinnipiac - They were
awful last year and had two All Freshmen guards transfer away. That's a bad
formula.
Favorite: Oakland - I'm picking Oakland because
of a trio of players: All Conference players Martez Walker and Jalen Hayes and
Illinois transfer Kendrick Nunn. I'm not sure I care about the rest of the
lineup, but that's a good core.
Runner-Up: NKU - The team is a little undersized,
but that shouldn't hurt in league play. Most of last year's team is back.
Sleeper: Detroit - The Titans were abysmal last
year (Finished 302nd). But, they have Horizon Freshman of the Year Corey Allen
(G) back, LBSU transfer Roschon Prince, and Michigan transfer Kameron Chatman
(a former top 25 recruit). They should improve, but how much?
Bottom of the Barrel: Green Bay - Only one player
who averaged more than 10mpg is back. Like, seriously.
Colonial Athletic Association
Favorite: Charleston - They were the second best
team in the conference last year and bring back a bunch of All Conference
players. Expect big things from Senior Jon Chealey (G).
Runner-Up: Towson - It's a matter of which team
loses the least from last year. Towson has a senior-heavy team who should be
pretty good.
Sleeper: UNC-Wilmington - They were by far the
best team in the conference. The only player of note returning is CAA Defensive
Player of the Year Devnotae Cacok. Odds are that's not enough for another run
at the top of the conference.
Bottom of the Barrel: Drexel - All Freshman point
guard Kurk Lee is the only player of note. There isn't much room for upside
that I'm seeing.
Basketball's Not Their Thing
Patriot League
Favorite: Bucknell - The Bison will be one of
this season's mid-major darlings. They finished last season 76th in the country
and bring back four All Conference players, including big man Nana Foulland
(Patriot League Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year).
Runner-Up: Colgate - The have a lot of returning
depth, with a lot of upperclassmen and rising Sophomore Will Rayman.
Sleeper: Lehigh - Never count Lehigh out, even
though they lost two All Conference players.
Bottom of the Barrel: Holy Cross - They weren't
that great and lost the only All Conference player on their roster.
Favorite: Murray St. - They bring back a 1st Team
All Conference player in the front and back court and introduce a high usage
transfer from Towson. That's an ideal situation.
Runner-Up: EKU - Big man Nick Mayo will make it
easy for the guards to adapt to their new roles in the rotation.
Sleeper: Belmont - Never count the Bruins out.
They lost OVC Player of the Year Evan Bradds but still have 1st Team All
Conference guard Austin Luke. Coach Byrd has a way of developing talent when it
looks like the cupboards are bare.
Bottom of the Barrel: Morehead St. - Middling OVC
team who lost the entire top of their rotation, including two All Conference
players.
American East Conference
Favorite: Vermont - The best team in the
conference last year loses defensive stopper Dre Willis but keeps four All
Conference players, including American East Player of the Year Trae
Bell-Haynes.
Runner-Up:
Albany - Terrific back court. They'll be looking to replace some front
court players.
Sleeper: New Hampshire - History tells me that
the sleeper is going to be New Hampshire or Stony Brook. Of the two, New
Hampshire looks a little better equipped, since they keep 1st Team All
Conference forward Tanner Leissner.
Bottom of the Barrel: Hartford - They were one of
the worst teams in the conference/country last year and lost their only All
Conference player.
Atlantic Sun Conference
Favorite: Lipscomb - They have a lot of depth and
a pair of All Conference players.
Runner-Up: FGCU - Losing Defensive Player of the
Year Demetris Morant hurts. Hopefully Michigan transfer Ricky Doyle will fill
that void in the middle. Pair him with Atl. Sun Newcomer of the Year Brandon
Goodwin (G) and you have a solid lineup.
Sleeper: North Florida - They have a strong pair
of returning Sophomores, a bunch of tranfers, and a large freshmen class.
Bottom of the Barrel: Kennesaw St. - Their two
best players are gone and leave a significant hole in the roster.
Big Sky Conference
Favorite: Montana St. - They have the backcourt
duo of Harald Frey and Tyler Hall and have the majority of their rotation
returning.
Runner-Up:
Idaho - It's really all about how good 1st Team All Conference wing
Victor Sanders is.
Sleeper: Northern Colorado - Big Sky Defensive
Player of the Year Jonah Radebaugh (G) is back. And 3rd Team All Conference
guard Jordan Davis. Arizona St. transfer Andre Spight could make an impact as
well. This conference almost has to be better than it was last year.
Bottom of the Barrel: Southern Utah - Big Sky
Newcomer of the Year Randy Onwuasor is gone, and they were already one of the
worst teams in the country last year.
Favorite: UNC Asheville - They were the best team
in the conference last year and keep Defensive Player of the Year Ahmad Thomas
and Freshman of the Year MaCio Teague.
Runner-Up: Liberty - Two All Freshman players are
back as well as 2nd Team All Conference wing Ryan Kemrite.
Sleeper: Campbell - 5'9 PG Chris Clemons is a big
time scorer. Maybe the rest of the team will rally around him in complementary
ways.
Bottom of the Barrel: Charleston Southern - I
guess All Freshman guard Christian Keeling offers something to be excited about
in his sophomore year. That's about all I've got though.
Favorite:
Stephen F. Austin - They lost their leader in minutes last year, PG
Dallas Cameron, but everyone else is back. That include 2nd Team All Conference
Center TJ Holyfield.
Runner-Up: Nicholls St. - Like most of the
conference, they were miserable last year. They bring in a ton of transfers
though, including former top 50 recruit Roddy Peters.
Sleeper: Abilene Christian - They were a lesser
team in the conference last year but bring back more of their rotation,
including Center Jalone Friday, who was the Southland Freshman of the Year last
year. Conferences this weak normally don't have impressive bigs, so that's an
immediate leg up.
Bottom of the Barrel: Northwestern St. - They
have a thoroughly unimpressive roster. They lost several players as well, so
they don't have much to grow on.
Embarrassingly Bad
Big West Conference
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
Favorite: UC Davis - I've always found the Big
West interesting. They tend to get a good assortment of transfers. They've had a
rough few years though. Bringing back Big West Newcomer of the Year Chima
Moneke is enough to make UC Davis the favorite to win in my book.
Runner-Up:
Hawaii - A year after Hawaii was decimated by transfers, draft
departures, and graduations, they are looking ok again. They lost a few more
players to transfer, but most of the team is back. In a weak conference, that's
enough.
Sleeper: LBSU - I don't have a good reason. They
just always schedule super hard in the offseason. Sometimes that pays dividends
by the end of the season.
Bottom of the Barrel: Cal. St. Northridge -
There's no one special on this team. Their transfers aren't even interesting.
Northeast Conference
Favorite: Fairleigh Dickinson - There's no sure
thing in this conference. Given that, I'll got with the above average team in
the conference that returns a lot of players, including 2nd team All Conference
guard Darian Anderson.
Runner-Up: St. Francis (PA) - They had the All
Conference backcourt tandem of Isaiah Blackmon and Keith Braxton. Not much else
of the rotation was back, but that could be enough.
Sleeper: Mt. St. Mary's - A lot of players
transferred away. In response to that, there's a large freshman class. They'll
be team with a trio of Seniors with a lot of experience. If only one or two of
those freshmen can be good starters, this team immediately jumps up the
conference standings.
Bottom of the Barrel: Central Connecticut St. -
This team is just awful. They even bring back a
bunch of players, including two 30mpg guys. I just don't see enough room
for improvement to move them ahead of anyone.
Favorite: UNC-Central - They were so far ahead of the rest of the conference last year, that it almost doesn't matter how many All Conference players they lost. They'll be relying on a bunch of transfers like Rashann London (Drexel), Zacary Douglas (CSUN), and Dominique Reid (Niagara).
Runner-Up: Morgan St. - They bring back two 1st Team All Conference players and most of the rest of their rotation. This team finished 324th last year. That's a lot of ground to gain no matter how good the returning talent is.
Sleeper: Savannah St. - They bring back All Conference guard Dexter McClanahan and All Freshman guard Zach Sellers. Combine that with a bunch of junior college transfers and you have a potentially dangerous team for the MEAC.
Bottom of the Barrel: Delaware St. - When you are talking about the worst team in the MEAC, you're probably talking about the worst team in the country. Delaware St. isn't exceptionally bad in any specific way. They just have no notable player and a bunch of players transferred away.
Southwestern Athletic Conference
Favorite: Texas Southern - They've been the class of the SWAC for a while now (not saying much) and this year looks no different. They've got two 30 mpg players, including Freshman of the Year Demontrae Jefferson. They also have All Conference forward Kevin Scott. The bench will be a mod of junior college transfers. They lost a lot of players from last year but should be just fine.
Runner-Up: Prairie View A&M - I'm hoping a mix of high major transfers, even more junior college transfers, and Zachary Hamilton, who averaged 30+mpg last year will be enough for second in a really awful conference.
Sleeper: Grambling St. - Do I have to pick one? I suppose Grambling's 10 transfers add a level of variability.
Bottom of the Barrel: Mississippi Valley St. - They are just awful, and they lost All Conference guard Marcus Romain.
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