Thursday, November 9, 2017

College Basketball Conference Picks 2017-18

I don't think I can stress enough the amount of time I put in tracking college basketball rosters. I follow recruits, transfers, minutes played, positions, All-Conference teams, etc. If I'm crazy enough to make picks for every conference, I'm sure as hell going to make a post about it.


This Year:
Top 25
Last Year:
Top 25 / Conference Picks

2015-16:
Top 25 / Conference Picks
2014-15:
Top 25 / Conference Picks

By the way, any time I mention Conference rankings, I'm basing it off Kenpom, not final Conference W-L record. Whenever I mention recruiting rankings, I'm referring to Rivals.



The Power Five
ACC
1. Duke - They are stacked with 5-star Freshmen at nearly every position, including top 10 recruits Trevon Duval (PG), Wendell Carter (F), and Marvin Bagley (F). Senior guard Grayson Allen, their only returning regular contributor from last year, gives them some flexibility. He can either take over games as the lead guard or work off the ball as a shooter while the kids play. They are a bit of a boom or bust team, but their ceiling is so high that I have to put them at the top.
2. North Carolina - Roy Williams has always been about balanced lineups, which is a problem with this very imbalanced roster. The Tar Heels are deep with guard talent but thin in the front court. Players like Joel Berry (PG), Kenny Williams (Wing), Theo Pinson (Wing), and Pitt-transfer Cameron Johnson (Wing) give them a very high floor. If they can find a couple serviceable big men, they could be great.
3. Louisville - Before all the controversy, Louisville was looking like a National Championship sleeper. Quentin Snider (PG), VJ King (Wing), Deng Adel (Wing), Raymond Spalding (Big), and Anas Osama Mahmoud (Big) looked like one of the best starting lineups (or core 5) in the country, and an impressive recruiting class and UNC-Asheville transfer Dwayne Sutton (Wing) gave them a great bench. All that is still true, but I'm not sure how much the team was held together by Rick Pitino. Perhaps muscle memory will carry them or interim coach David Padgett turns out to be terrific and the FBI investigation doesn't distract them or hurt morale at all. Those are some big ifs.
Sleeper: Virginia - All logical examinations of the Cavaliers tell me they should take a nosedive this year. They were offensively challenged last year and lost their four-year Point Guard London Perrantes along with several rotation players. There are no obvious stars on the current lineup either. All that said, Tony Bennett's system has been known to terrify regular season opponents and someone always seems to step up. A top 3 finish wouldn't be crazy.
Also Worth Mentioning:  Miami, Notre Dame - Miami brings back a lot of talented players (Ja'Quan Newor and Bruce Brown in the backcourt in particular) and has a good recruiting class. I'm not sold on their ability to make the leap to elite. Notre Dame has a couple great Seniors in Bonzie Colson and Matt Farrell. They had some big losses last year though. It's hard to see them not taking a step back this year.
Bottom of the Barrel: Pittsburgh - It might be a bit much to expect them to fall all the way beneath Boston College, but I think they can do it. They lost almost every significant player from last year, many via transfer, which is never a good sign. This will be a Freshmen-heavy team and it's not a great recruiting class. It's hard to see how they aren't bottom 3 in the ACC even in the best case scenario.

Big 12
1. Kansas - Until Kansas doesn't win the Big 12, I'd be a fool to pick against them. Devonte Graham shouldn't miss a beat taking over as the PG. Big man Udoka Azubuike is back from injury.  Mississippi St. transfer Malik Newman (G) is one of the biggest impact transfers in the country. Top 15 recruit Billy Preston shores up the frontcourt (although Bill Self has a dicey history with highly rated Freshman bigs). Young  Senior Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk is a very intriguing prospect who might finally be ready to break out. Only a couple of these players need to follow through on their promise to make Kansas the most imposing team in the Big 12.
2. TCU - The Horned Frogs jumped over 100 spots on Kenpom between 2016 and 2017 and were still only the 5th best team in the Big 12 last year, so maybe they've hit their ceiling already. They have a solid point guard and center and most of their rotation is back. The freshman class has some good recruits. Jamie Dixon seems to be reinvigorated after the jump from Pitt to TCU. I just feel good about this team.
3. West Virginia - "Press Virginia" brings back Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Jevon Carter. That sentence alone can secure a top 3 finish. They lose some key depth though, especially in the front court, so I don't see them repeating in the top 10 in the country again. With the other teams at the top of the conference also taking steps back, WVU should be able to hold onto a top 3 finish.
Sleeper: Texas - Look. Texas wasn't very good last year. There were loaded with talent and still only finished 70th. Getting 5-star big man Mohamed Bamba will fill some needed front court holes. It's not very often that a top-rated big turns a team around though, no matter how good he is. That will have to come from the guard trio of Eric Davis, Kerwin Roach, and Andrew Jones. I think Shaka Smart as a coach is great at getting the most out of mid-level recruits. This will be his best chance to prove that he can do it with top level recruits. On paper, this team should be really good.
Also Worth Mentioning:  Baylor, Oklahoma - Baylor mainly just lost Jonathan Motley from last year's team, but that's a lot. The inside-out combo of Manu Lacomte (G) and Jo Lual-Acuil (C) is a good starting point. Perhaps we're in for another "way better than they should be" season. Oklahoma finished last year 65th. They do bring back most of their rotation though and add 16th rated recruit Trae Young (PG).
Bottom of the Barrel: Iowa St. - The Cyclones have been a fun team for a lot of years, so I really hope I'm wrong about this. They lost their top four player from last year, who they were incredibly reliant on. As always, they bring in a lot of transfers (although none are the high level transfers they got in the past). Also, 24th rated Freshman Lindell Wigginton gives them some hope. The Big 12 is just a tough conference, so it doesn't take much regression to be at the bottom.

Big 10
1. Michigan St. - I'm uncomfortable expecting such a big jump by a team that finished 40th last year. Thankfully, the Spartans have the perfect storm coming. The good kind. They have a spectacular Sophomore class, including Miles Bridges, who could've been a lottery pick in the NBA Draft over the summer. Their big weakness last year was the front court. Well,  they have two Senior big men back from injury and 6th rated Freshman big Jaren Jackson to fix that. They lost very little from last year's team and have the back court they ended last season with in tact.
2. Minnesota - The Golden Gophers bring 5 20MPG players back from last year's surprise top 40 team. That includes All Freshman Point Guard Amir Coffey and Big 10 Defensive Players of the Year Reggie Lynch. The only thing that could get in their way is falling under the weight of actual expectations this season.
3. Northwestern - The Wildcats were just as good as the Gophers last year and lost even less from their rotation. I worry some about their front court (or lack thereof), so that's why I'm keeping Minnesota ahead of them.
Sleeper: Indiana - I'll admit, I partly just want IU to be good, but hear me out. Yes, three starters left for the NBA. James Blackmon was nice for scoring but awful on defense. OG Anunoby was injured at the end of last season anyway. Losing Thomas Bryant does hurt. There's no talking around that. That said, the Hoosiers have an exciting new coach who might actually teach some defense. SG Robert Johnson should be more effective without playing next to Blackmon. 5th year point guard Josh Newkirk is back. Stretch 4 Collin Hartman is back from a redshirt season due to injury. I kind of think forward Juwan Morgan could be a breakout player now that he's out of Anunoby's shadow. If all the pieces fit together the right way, the team could be addition thorough subtraction...Probably not, but at least let me enjoy the non-conference schedule before dashing my hopes.
Also Worth Mentioning:  Purdue, Wisconsin - The Boilermakers bring back most of their core except for Caleb Swanigan. Maybe Vince Edwards will step up in his absence, Otherwise, they'll be a team without an alpha. Is this the year that Wisconsin finally misses the tournament? They lost three starters and don't have a great recruiting class. Can Ethan Happ really carry the whole team?
Bottom of the Barrel: Rutgers - Last year's worst team isn't showing any signs of getting better.

Pac 12
1. Arizona - Senior Point guard. An army of talented wings. A big man with experience. A terrific recruiting class, including DeAndre Ayton, who is expected to be a top 5 pick in the draft. Transfers from lower conferences looking to make a splash. Sure they lost a bunch of guys to graduation, transfer, and the draft, but they are stacked with all the kinds of players they need to dominate the PAC 12.
2. USC - I just don't trust the Trojans. They return everyone of significance from last year's team, including big man, Chimezie Metu. Duke transfer Derryck Thornton is eligible too. The recruiting class is even pretty decent. I'm not sure I see them being able to jump from 53rd in the country last year to top of the conference. They are a high upside team though. That's for sure.
3. UCLA - Last year was kind of a fluke. Freshmen classes normally aren't that good. This year's Freshmen aren't likely to replace that production. And, they lost some key players to graduation. As much as I like the inside-out tandem of Aaron Holiday and Thomas Welsh, I don't see enough on this roster to be a threat. The PAC 12 is pretty top-heavy this year.That's the only reason I have UCLA staying this high.
Sleeper: Oregon - They lost basically all of that Final Four team from last year. Only one starter is back (Payton Pritchard - SG). They'll be relying a lot on a big recruiting class and a bunch of transfers. That's almost the definition of a wildcard.
Also Worth Mentioning:  Stanford - They weren't even a top 100 team last year. They return some key pieces though, including 1st Team All Conference big man Reid Travis. They have that kind of roster that's very Notre Dame-esque. They are old and have a bunch of former top 150 recruits. They could be a surprising NCAA Tournament team if nothing else.
Bottom of the Barrel: Washington St. - They were so damn bad last year and don't have any new or returning players of note. Washington and California lost more but still look better.

SEC
1. Kentucky - If it's Kentucky or the field to win the SEC, I'm picking the field. It's hard to pick against them though. The recruiting class is big and talented. The best case scenario of the team is a frightening  prospect with size and length that could terrorize the league. The worst case scenario is, well, remember 2013? If you don't, that team had a lot of talented players but no guards to run the offense. It was ugly.
2. Florida - If I was playing it safe, I'd pick Florida to win the SEC. The have the highest floor of any team in the league. John Egbunu, back from injury, will be one of the best bigs in the country. The back court pair of Chris Chiozza and KeVaughn Allen should be great, although I do wonder if either is really a point guard. The rest of the lineup I'm not sold on. They should all be good. None of they are high upside guys though.
3. Texas A&M - I'm really excited about the Aggies. They finished last season outside of the top 60, but they bring back a lot. Robert Williams (could've gone in the NBA Draft lottery this summer) and Tyler Davis will be one of the best front courts in the country (top 10, at least). DJ Hogg, a big wing, looks good too. The recruiting class is strong. I'd like a little more talent in the back court to put them any higher. Admon Gilder and Marquette transfer Duane Wilson are a good start.
Sleeper: Missouri - Obviously. New coach. Top rated recruit in the country (Michael Porter Jr. - 6'10 forward). His 5-star rated brother (Jontay Porter - 6'11 forward). Another top 50 recruit (Jeremiah Tilmon - 6'10 forward). Top 3 players in minutes last year are back. MAAC All-Conference guard Kassius Robertson transferring in. But this was a team that finished 156th last year. They would need to make an almost unheard of leap to finish at the top of the conference. Also, something that troubles me: all these big name recruits are front court players. That's great, but this is a guard's league. Unless Robertson makes a perfect transition to a high major program, I don't think that talent will be maximized.
Also Worth Mentioning:  Auburn, Georgia - The SEC is filled with high upside teams this year. Auburn will have one of the best Sophomore classes this side of Michigan State, with Mustapha Heron, Austin Wiley, Daniel Purifoy, and Jared Harper all potential break out candidates. Supposing the FBI investigation doesn't bury them (a condition that applies to almost all teams this year), they could make a huge jump this year. Georgia has almost the opposite concern. They have a bunch of Juniors and Seniors with no big breakout candidates. Big man Yanten Maten is a potential SEC Player of the Year candidate though.
Bottom of the Barrel: LSU - A new coach is a nice start. I don't think any coach wasted as much talent as Johnny Jones over the last 5 seasons, so anything is an improvement. The Tigers were awful, even by Missouri standards last year and don't bring in any high level recruits to get them out of the the gutter. They're probably a season or two away from not be terrible.

The "If It Wasn't for Football" Majors
American Athletic Conference
1. Wichita St. - Early season injuries be damned, Wichita will win the AAC in their first season. The top 7 players are back from a severely underrated team. They'll be putting together one of the best 5-man lineups in the country.  The recruiting class isn't great. It doesn't have to be. This is an upperclassman-dominated team. Even PG Landry Shamet is a redshirt Sophomore (i.e. technically a Junior). I wouldn't be surprised to see them make the Final Four this season.
2. Cincinnati - The Bearcats have been incredibly consistent for nearly a decade. They're always ready to replace whoever graduates. The trio of forwards Jacob Evans, Gary Clark, and Kyle Washington are going to be great. I'm a little worried about the back court, which will be calling on bench players like Justin Jenifer and Jarron Cumberland to step up.
3. UCF - 7'6 center Taco Fall is the reigning AAC Defensive Player of the Year. It's impossible to game plan against him. Then add a bevy of transfer from good programs and you have a potentially frightening team. I'm tempted to even put them ahead of Cincy.
Sleeper: Connecticut - The Huskies have been an "every other year" team for a while now. They greatly underwhelmed last year, so that means this year they're ready for an upswing. Coach Kevin Ollie is bringing in a bunch of mid-major transfers.  All Conference First Team wing Jalen Adams is the team leader. Terry Larrier (F) is back from injury and might be the most important player on the team. Same with Alterique Gilbert(G), also injured early last season. Last year was pretty much the worst-cast scenario for the Huskies. That could make a lot of people (including myself) sleep on them.
Also Worth Mentioning:  SMU - I was surprised to realize that the Mustangs were the 11th best team in the country last season. They lost three of their four All Conference players from last year, including AAC Player of the Year Semi Ojeleye. PG Shake Milton is back. That's nice. A couple rotation guys too. Otherwise, they'll be relying on a lot of Freshmen from a mediocre recruiting class. I'm expecting them to fall hard, but maybe they turn out to have more depth than I'm seeing.
Bottom of the Barrel: USF - They finished last season 292nd in the country and lost 7 players to transfer. That says everything.

Atlantic 10
1. Rhode Island - The question here is "Is the A10 a weak enough conference that all you need is a great back court to win it?" The Rams lost their front court - former top 30 recruit Kuran Iverson and A10 Defensive Player of the Year Hussan Martin - but they have an exceptional backcourt quartet in Jarvis Garrett, Jared Terrell, EC Matthews, and Stanford Robinson. I think they'll find a serviceable enough front court to let those guards dominate the competition.
2. St. Bonaventure - The Bonnies are the trendy pick to win the A10 due to having NBA prospect Jaylen Adams running things. I think that's asking for a little too much improvement from a team that loses 20% of their production. They'll be good, just not quite good enough.
3. VCU - The Rams have been slowly losing the talent they acquired with Shaka Smart in charge. They still have one of the best collection of recruits in the A10. They don't have much depth, so De'Riante Jenkins (G) and Justin Tillman (F) will really need to perform.
Sleeper: Dayton -  Losing coach Archie Miller hurts, as does losing 4 All-Conference players.  The Flyers had a deep roster though, and they bring in Kostas Anteokounmpo, younger brother of Giannis. Perhaps Miller's influence will linger for a while.
Also Worth Mentioning:  St. Joseph's - They were pretty bad last year (183rd in the country), but they bring back most of their rotation, including All Freshman forward Charles Brown Jr.
Bottom of the Barrel: Duquesne - Don't gtet me wrong. Fordham will be pretty bad too. There's just so little to begin with that even an improved core is a bad core for the Dukes.

Big East
1. Villanova - Jay Wright has this program humming. Despite losing Big East Player of the Year Josh Hart and key bigs Kris Jenkins and Darryl Reynolds, the Wildcats have a great team coming back. Jalen Brunson (G) is ready to be the new team leader. They still have co-Defensive Player of the Year Mikal Bridges at the wing. The real key will be if redshirt Freshman Omari Spellman will be ready right away at center. They have never relied on their bigs, but it's nice to have a couple to balance things out.
2. Xavier - The magic trick of that Elite Eight run is that PG Edmund Sumner was already lost to injury, so his decision to go pro doesn't change things that much this year. Quentin Goodin is back to run the point. Seniors Trevon Bluiett and JP Macura are ready to do some damage at the wing. In fact, this team goes as far as Bluiett takes them. They even have a lot of frontcourt depth returning or transferring in, even though I don't think there's a star among them. I have some slight pause because the guard depth isn't great past the starting lineup, unless top 40 Freshman, Paul Scruggs (G) fits into the rotation quickly. I have a hard time seeing them topping Villanova in the end, but they can give them a good run.
3. Providence - The Friars bring back every player of note from last year including Kyron Cartwright (PG), Jalen Lindset (F), and Rodney Bullock (F). They supplement that with a decent recruiting class. I question the team's real upside, but they have such a solid core that it's hard to see them any lower than maybe 4th in the conference.
Sleeper: Seton Hall - Angel Delgado, Desi Rodriguez, and Khadeen Carrington have been around forever. This could be one of those Senior dominated teams that beats more opponents than you'd expect just due to experience.
Also Worth Mentioning:  Creighton, Butler, Marquette - There are a lot of teams in the Big East that interest me. Creighton lost a bunch of Seniors to graduation and Freshman Justin Patton to the NBA Draft, but the back court duo of Marcus Foster (All Conference 1st Team) and Khyri Thomas (Co-Defensive Player of the Year) are good enough to carry the team. I'm a little lower on Butler than some of the polls because I worry about any team that loses its  point guard and center. They lost their coach too. Kamar Baldwin (G) and Kelen Martin (F) are a good inside-out combo though. Marquette is quietly consistent. They actually finished last season 32nd in the country without a real star. They lost a lot of players and bring in a decent recruiting class. I'm curious to see if All Freshman point guard Markus Howard can make a leap this year.
Bottom of the Barrel: DePaul - They've been a punchline in the league for so long and don't appear to be getting any better. The only conceivable path to a non-last place finish is if Georgetown tanks super hard.

Mountain West
1. Nevada - They're a tricky team to predict. They lost two All Conference players to graduation and one to the NBA draft. Normally, you'd expect a big decline. They still have All Conference wing Jordan Caroline though and bring in a ton of great transfers, including the Martin brothers from NC State. The Mountain West is weak enough that that should be enough to stay on top.
2. San Diego St. - The Aztecs will make it tough for Nevada though. Supposing Steve Fisher's defense stays instilled in them, they might finally have enough offensive firepower to really be good. San Francisco transfer Devin Watson will be joining them. Leading scorer Trey Kell returns. And maybe this is the year when 5 star forward Malik Pope (now a Senior) finally follows through on his potential.
3. Boise St. - First team All  Conference wing Chandler Hutchinson is back on a mostly in tact roster.
Sleeper: UNLV - I'm probably being fooled by all the talent. It's happened before with the Runnin' Rebels. They bring in 12th rated freshman Brandon McCoy (C) and one of the best junior college transfers in the country, Shakur Juiston (F). Milwaukee transfer Jordan Johnson (G) was an All Conference player in the Horizon League. They even keep 3rd Team All Conference guard Jovan Mooring. This is a team that barely finished in the top 250 last year and lost nine players, important players, to graduation or transfer.How big of a leap can they really make?
Bottom of the Barrel: San Jose St. - Air Force stands a good chance to be the worst too. San Jose St. can barely put together a full lineup of players who played last season.

The True Mid-Majors
Missouri Valley Conference
Favorite: Missouri St. - Alize Johnson (C) is a legit NBA prospect who will terrorize the league. The rest of the lineup looks solid too.
Runner-Up: Loyola-Chicago - They bring back 3 30mpg players from last year. The front court is a little light though.
Sleeper: Valparaiso - Losing Alec Peters (MVC Player of the Year) hurts a lot. A lot of the core is otherwise back and OK St. transfer Joe Burton should be a nice addition.
Bottom of the Barrel: Drake - The worst team in the conference last year isn't looking much better.

West Coast Conference
Favorite: St. Mary's - This year, the WCC is more of a toss-up. The Gaels look like the safer pick though. More of their core is in tact. Losing WCC Defensive Player of the Year Joe Rohan should be offset some by the arrival of Ole Miss grad transfer Cullen Neal. They still have PG Emmett Naar and All Conference 1st team forwards Calvin Hermanson and Jock Londale. I guess I could knock them for not having a recruiting class to speak of, but they never do.
Runner-Up: Gonzaga - The Zags are one of the most curious teams in the country. They were the best team in the country last year according to Kenpom. They lost Nigel Williams Goss and Zach Collins to the NBA Draft and Jordan Matthews and Przemek Karnowski to graduation. That would be enough to decimate most teams. They bring back a stable back court of Josh Perkins and Silas Melson though. Neither are stars, but they should be more than enough for WCC competition. 1st Team All Conference big man Johnathan Williams is back and ready to be the star of the team. Somehow, they have two NBA prospects in Rui Hachimura and Killian Tillie ready to step up after barely cracking the rotation last year. This all comes with a big recruiting class that likely has a player or two ready to play big minutes. On paper, they look better than they will probably be this season though. That's my hunch.
Sleeper: BYU - This is a three team conference until some other team wants to step up and change that. Given that, TJ Haws and Yoeli Childs lead the wildcard in the WCC. They were really hurt by big man Eric Mika deciding to go pro after last season.
Bottom of the Barrel: Portland - You'll find that not many bottom teams have an interesting story. Portland has no All Conference players. Only four players from last year's roster are back. There are a lot of bad teams on the WCC, but none that bad.

Sunbelt Conference
Favorite: Louisiana Lafayette - This is the Sunbelt team with the highest upside. They've got a lot of major conference transfers and a few All Conference players coming back.
Runner-Up: Georgia Southern - They'll be led by a pair of 1st team All Conference guards (Tookie Brown and Ike Smith).
Sleeper: Texas Arlington - They still have conference Player of the Year Kevin Hervey (F) and 2nd Team All Conference PG Erick Neal. They were by far the best team in the conference last year. Most of the rest of the rotation is gone, so they'll need a few players to step up. It'll actually be quite a competition between the top 3-4 teams in the conference this year.
Bottom of the Barrel: Appalachian St. - 3rd Team All Conference guard Ronshad Allen-Shabazz is the only proven back court player on the team. They have an army of forwards, which doesn't do as much good if no one is there to get them the ball. This is a surprisingly deep league.

Ivy League
Favorite: Harvard - Princeton is the more popular pick, but I actually like Harvard to win the Ivy. It sucks losing Siyani Chambers to graduation, but Tommy Amaker recruits at a higher level than anyone in the Ivy League. They have a bunch of Sophomores looking to step up, including last year's Freshman of the Year Bryce Aiken (G).
Runner-Up: Princeton - While it's nice that Defensive Player of the Year Myles Stephens is back,  they lost two other 1st Team All Conference players from last year.
Sleeper: Yale - There aren't a lot of dynamic rosters in the Ivy League. Yale earns its sleeper status because they got Makai Mason back from injury after leading the team in scoring in 2015-16.
Bottom of the Barrel: Brown - They were the second worst team in the conference last year then lost 1st Team All Conference guard Steven Spieth to graduation.

Conference USA
Favorite: Middle Tennessee - I'm not ready to let go. They've been tournament darlings the last two years. They lost their two best players/bigs, including CUSA Player of the Year Jacorey Williams, which leaves an opening for someone else to pull ahead of them.  They still have Giddy Potts (G) and Alabama transfer Nick King should help.
Runner-Up: Louisiana Tech - They aren't far behind Middle Tenn. and return some good Sophomore guards as well as a strong defensive wing in Jacobi Boykins.
Sleeper: Western Kentucky - They'd be a lot better is top ten recruit Mitchell Robinson decided to stay instead of leaving the team twice over the summer. Even still, they have a good trio of transfers in Dwight Coleby (Kansas), Darius Thompson (Virginia), and Lamonte Bearden (Buffalo). 2nd team All Conference big man Justin Johnson is back and they have top 60 recruit Josh Anderson (SG). It's really all a matter of how quickly this team gels.
Bottom of the Barrel: Florida International - They didn't have any All Conference players last year. They lost most of their team. The recruiting class is pretty meh. There's nothing to get excited about.

They Have Some Good Teams
Mid-American Conference
Favorite: Western Michigan - There's no obvious top team. Thomas Wilder is the only 1st Team All Conference player returning this year in the MAC, and W-Mich only lost one player last year (although that player was the second best player on the team).
Runner-Up: Buffalo - Missouri transfer Wes Clark will have to make up for the graduation of Willie Connor and All Conference wing Blake Hamilton. Otherwise, most of the rotation that made them the third best team in the conference is back. And, Jeremy Harris is one of the best junior college transfers in the country.
Sleeper: Eastern Michigan - Rule of thumb: The sleeper is normally the team with the most new players. E-Mich has five transfers and four freshmen joining 2nd team All Conference center James Thompson.
Bottom of the Barrel: Miami (OH) - They were the worst team in the conference last year and Freshman of the Year Michael Weathers transferred. That's a bad sign.

Southern Conference
Favorite: Furman - SoCo Player of the Year Devin Sibley (G) is back on the conference's 2nd best team from last year. They have great back court depth and some decent front court players too.
Runner-Up: Samford - They lose basically no one and introduce Alabama transfer Justin Coleman (G). 
Sleeper: ETSU - Last year's best SoCo team will rely on transfers again, but lower caliber transfers than last year.
Bottom of the Barrel: VMI - They'll sure score a lot of points but they don't have any real high upside players. They were one of the worst teams in the country last year and are likely to be again.

Summit League
Favorite: South Dakota St. - Mike Daum is still somehow only a Junior and is by far the best player in the conference. He doesn't have much else around him. He may not need it. He's really good.
Runner-Up: South Dakota - They also have their own 1st team All Conference player in Matt Mooney (G). They have a little more coming back than SDSU. But, SDSU didn't lose anyone as good as 1st team All Conference forward Tyler Flack.
Sleeper:  IPFW - There aren't any real sleepers. The Mastadons do have 1st Team All Conference wing John Konchar and a bunch of freshmen. Sleepers tend to have a lot of fresh faces to mix with known talent.
Bottom of the Barrel: Oral Roberts - Maybe Freshman of the Year Emmanuel Nzekwesi will be good enough to keep them out of the cellar, or maybe Nezekwesi became FOY because the team was so bad that he got a bigger opportunity than he should've.

Western Athletic Conference
Favorite: New Mexico St. - The Aggies lost the WAC Player of the Year Ian Baker and their coach. Five players transferred and one other left early to go pro. However, they have an All Conference front court. Texas Southern transfer Zach Lofton was the SWAC Player of the Year before heading to NM St. Sidy Ndir was on his way to an All Conference campaign before getting injured last year. And there's Ohio St. transfer AJ Harris. They're getting several junior college transfers as well. This isn't the same team as last year, but there's a lot to be excited about.
Runner-Up: Utah Valley - Another team with a lot of transfers. Upperclassmen dominated team, including  All Defensive big man Isaac Nelson.
Sleeper: Seattle - Four D-I transfers and Freshman of the Year Matej Kavas (wing). They lost a lot of players, although none of them were All Conference players.
Bottom of the Barrel: UMKC - Like I'm not going to find a way to mention the Kangoroos. Other than their great mascot, there's nothing about this team worth talking about this year.

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Favorite: Fairfield - They have a strong backcourt and an upperclassmen dominated starting lineup.
Runner-Up: Iona - They'll be relying a lot on some transfers but have a nice, young rotation to mix in.
Sleeper: Monmouth - They've graduated most of the players that have made them mid-major darlings the last couple years. Mainly just Micah Seabord (G) is left. Who knows though? Maybe the young guys picked something up from the old guys.
Bottom of the Barrel: Quinnipiac - They were awful last year and had two All Freshmen guards transfer away. That's a bad formula.

Horizon League
Favorite: Oakland - I'm picking Oakland because of a trio of players: All Conference players Martez Walker and Jalen Hayes and Illinois transfer Kendrick Nunn. I'm not sure I care about the rest of the lineup, but that's a good core.
Runner-Up: NKU - The team is a little undersized, but that shouldn't hurt in league play. Most of last year's team is back.
Sleeper: Detroit - The Titans were abysmal last year (Finished 302nd). But, they have Horizon Freshman of the Year Corey Allen (G) back, LBSU transfer Roschon Prince, and Michigan transfer Kameron Chatman (a former top 25 recruit). They should improve, but how much?
Bottom of the Barrel: Green Bay - Only one player who averaged more than 10mpg is back. Like, seriously.

Colonial Athletic Association
Favorite: Charleston - They were the second best team in the conference last year and bring back a bunch of All Conference players. Expect big things from Senior Jon Chealey (G).
Runner-Up: Towson - It's a matter of which team loses the least from last year. Towson has a senior-heavy team who should be pretty good.
Sleeper: UNC-Wilmington - They were by far the best team in the conference. The only player of note returning is CAA Defensive Player of the Year Devnotae Cacok. Odds are that's not enough for another run at the top of the conference.
Bottom of the Barrel: Drexel - All Freshman point guard Kurk Lee is the only player of note. There isn't much room for upside that I'm seeing.


Basketball's Not Their Thing
Patriot League
Favorite: Bucknell - The Bison will be one of this season's mid-major darlings. They finished last season 76th in the country and bring back four All Conference players, including big man Nana Foulland (Patriot League Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year).
Runner-Up: Colgate - The have a lot of returning depth, with a lot of upperclassmen and rising Sophomore Will Rayman.
Sleeper: Lehigh - Never count Lehigh out, even though they lost two All Conference players.
Bottom of the Barrel: Holy Cross - They weren't that great and lost the only All Conference player on their roster.

Ohio Valley Conference
Favorite: Murray St. - They bring back a 1st Team All Conference player in the front and back court and introduce a high usage transfer from Towson. That's an ideal situation.
Runner-Up: EKU - Big man Nick Mayo will make it easy for the guards to adapt to their new roles in the rotation.
Sleeper: Belmont - Never count the Bruins out. They lost OVC Player of the Year Evan Bradds but still have 1st Team All Conference guard Austin Luke. Coach Byrd has a way of developing talent when it looks like the cupboards are bare.
Bottom of the Barrel: Morehead St. - Middling OVC team who lost the entire top of their rotation, including two All Conference players.

American East Conference
Favorite: Vermont - The best team in the conference last year loses defensive stopper Dre Willis but keeps four All Conference players, including American East Player of the Year Trae Bell-Haynes.
Runner-Up:  Albany - Terrific back court. They'll be looking to replace some front court players.
Sleeper: New Hampshire - History tells me that the sleeper is going to be New Hampshire or Stony Brook. Of the two, New Hampshire looks a little better equipped, since they keep 1st Team All Conference forward Tanner Leissner.
Bottom of the Barrel: Hartford - They were one of the worst teams in the conference/country last year and lost their only All Conference player.

Atlantic Sun Conference
Favorite: Lipscomb - They have a lot of depth and a pair of All Conference players.
Runner-Up: FGCU - Losing Defensive Player of the Year Demetris Morant hurts. Hopefully Michigan transfer Ricky Doyle will fill that void in the middle. Pair him with Atl. Sun Newcomer of the Year Brandon Goodwin (G) and you have a solid lineup.
Sleeper: North Florida - They have a strong pair of returning Sophomores, a bunch of tranfers, and a large freshmen class.
Bottom of the Barrel: Kennesaw St. - Their two best players are gone and leave a significant hole in the roster.

Big Sky Conference
Favorite: Montana St. - They have the backcourt duo of Harald Frey and Tyler Hall and have the majority of their rotation returning.
Runner-Up:  Idaho - It's really all about how good 1st Team All Conference wing Victor Sanders is.
Sleeper: Northern Colorado - Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year Jonah Radebaugh (G) is back. And 3rd Team All Conference guard Jordan Davis. Arizona St. transfer Andre Spight could make an impact as well. This conference almost has to be better than it was last year.
Bottom of the Barrel: Southern Utah - Big Sky Newcomer of the Year Randy Onwuasor is gone, and they were already one of the worst teams in the country last year.

Big South Conference
Favorite: UNC Asheville - They were the best team in the conference last year and keep Defensive Player of the Year Ahmad Thomas and Freshman of the Year MaCio Teague.
Runner-Up: Liberty - Two All Freshman players are back as well as 2nd Team All Conference wing Ryan Kemrite.
Sleeper: Campbell - 5'9 PG Chris Clemons is a big time scorer. Maybe the rest of the team will rally around him in complementary ways.
Bottom of the Barrel: Charleston Southern - I guess All Freshman guard Christian Keeling offers something to be excited about in his sophomore year. That's about all I've got though.

Southland Conference
Favorite:  Stephen F. Austin - They lost their leader in minutes last year, PG Dallas Cameron, but everyone else is back. That include 2nd Team All Conference Center TJ Holyfield.
Runner-Up: Nicholls St. - Like most of the conference, they were miserable last year. They bring in a ton of transfers though, including former top 50 recruit Roddy Peters.
Sleeper: Abilene Christian - They were a lesser team in the conference last year but bring back more of their rotation, including Center Jalone Friday, who was the Southland Freshman of the Year last year. Conferences this weak normally don't have impressive bigs, so that's an immediate leg up.
Bottom of the Barrel: Northwestern St. - They have a thoroughly unimpressive roster. They lost several players as well, so they don't have much to grow on.


Embarrassingly Bad
Big West Conference
Favorite: UC Davis - I've always found the Big West interesting. They tend to get a good assortment of transfers. They've had a rough few years though. Bringing back Big West Newcomer of the Year Chima Moneke is enough to make UC Davis the favorite to win in my book.
Runner-Up:  Hawaii - A year after Hawaii was decimated by transfers, draft departures, and graduations, they are looking ok again. They lost a few more players to transfer, but most of the team is back. In a weak conference, that's enough.
Sleeper: LBSU - I don't have a good reason. They just always schedule super hard in the offseason. Sometimes that pays dividends by the end of the season.
Bottom of the Barrel: Cal. St. Northridge - There's no one special on this team. Their transfers aren't even interesting.

Northeast Conference
Favorite: Fairleigh Dickinson - There's no sure thing in this conference. Given that, I'll got with the above average team in the conference that returns a lot of players, including 2nd team All Conference guard Darian Anderson.
Runner-Up: St. Francis (PA) - They had the All Conference backcourt tandem of Isaiah Blackmon and Keith Braxton. Not much else of the rotation was back, but that could be enough.
Sleeper: Mt. St. Mary's - A lot of players transferred away. In response to that, there's a large freshman class. They'll be team with a trio of Seniors with a lot of experience. If only one or two of those freshmen can be good starters, this team immediately jumps up the conference standings.
Bottom of the Barrel: Central Connecticut St. - This team is just awful. They even bring back a  bunch of players, including two 30mpg guys. I just don't see enough room for improvement to move them ahead of anyone.

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
Favorite: UNC-Central - They were so far ahead of the rest of the conference last year, that it almost doesn't matter how many All Conference players they lost. They'll be relying on a bunch of transfers like Rashann London (Drexel), Zacary Douglas (CSUN), and Dominique Reid (Niagara).
Runner-Up: Morgan St. - They bring back two 1st Team All Conference players and most of the rest of their rotation. This team finished 324th last year. That's a lot of ground to gain no matter how good the returning talent is.
Sleeper: Savannah St. - They bring back All Conference guard Dexter McClanahan and All Freshman guard Zach Sellers. Combine that with a bunch of junior college transfers and you have a potentially dangerous team for the MEAC.
Bottom of the Barrel: Delaware St. - When you are talking about the worst team in the MEAC, you're probably talking about the worst team in the country. Delaware St. isn't exceptionally bad in any specific way. They just have no notable player and a bunch of players transferred away.

Southwestern Athletic Conference
Favorite: Texas Southern - They've been the class of the SWAC for a while now (not saying much) and this year looks no different. They've got two 30 mpg players, including Freshman of the Year Demontrae Jefferson. They also have All Conference forward Kevin Scott. The bench will be a mod of junior college transfers. They lost a lot of players from last year but should be just fine.
Runner-Up: Prairie View A&M - I'm hoping a mix of high major transfers, even more junior college transfers, and Zachary Hamilton, who averaged 30+mpg last year will be enough for second in a really awful conference.
Sleeper: Grambling St. - Do I have to pick one? I suppose Grambling's 10 transfers add a level of variability.
Bottom of the Barrel: Mississippi Valley St. - They are just awful, and they lost All Conference guard Marcus Romain.


No comments:

Post a Comment