Believe it or not, I spend just as much time
following basketball as I do movies. I don't have quite as much to say though,
so I limited things to a handful of posts in November. Today it's my picks for
Top 25 along with a couple sleepers.
Last Year:
2017-2018
2016-2017
2015-16:
2014-15:
It's hard to argue with the Spartans as the consensus
#1 team in the country. Cassius Winston is the favorite to win all the national
Player of the Year awards. He's that good at the college level. He's the main
ball-handler, the leading scorer, and can win virtually any game on his own.
Having a great Point Guard is the difference between the teams I feel
comfortable with and the ones I don't trust this year. I'm not sure if Winston
can get any better than he was last year, but holding steady would be enough to
feel good about the team. Xavier Tillman (F) will keep the frontcourt steady,
replacing problematic big man Nick Ward, who left early for the pros. If Josh
Langford (G/F) can ever stay healthy, he's a huge plus on the wing. Aaron Henry
(F) should make a jump in his Sophomore season. All the team really needs is
for one or two of the other Sophomores or either to the top 50 rated Freshmen
(Mark "Rocket" Watts - G, Malik Hall - F) to pop and Michigan State
has enough depth to stay at the top of the rankings throughout the season.
The concerns about this team are obvious. Josh
Langford's constant injuries rob them of a second star. Matt McQuaid's
perimeter defense last year will be missed. Cassius Winston absolutely can't
get hurt, and I'm not sure that anyone else is ready to step up if he has a bad
night. This is the prototypical Tom Izzo team though: A do-everything playmaker
to drive the offense and tough bigs to grab the rebounds. They bring back about
3/5s of last year's production, which is pretty standard and should match with
the growth curve of all the new or returning players. Someone will have to take
the throne from Michigan State, because this isn't the kind of team to throw it
away.
This is pretty typical turnover for the Wildcats.
They can't put out a 5-man lineup of guys who played for them last year (only 4
returning players). About 2/3s of the minutes, points, and rebounds are gone. A
strong recruiting class will be called on to develop quickly and fill the holes
in the rotation. I like the makeup of the roster though. They have a wealth of
options at the Point Guard spot with Sophomores Ashton Hagans (SEC Defensive
POY last year) and Immanuel Quickley both back. Freshman Tyrese Maxey (#10
rated Freshman according to Rivals) should also fight for minutes at or next to
PG. They should be able to get 40 good minutes at Center from Nick Richards and
EJ Montgomery, who both could breakout this year. Bucknell graduate transfer
Nate Sestina (F) may not be as impactful as Reid Travis last year, but his size
and shooting give UK a dimension they haven't had in the past. All they really
need is for one or two of the other Freshmen to play to their potential and
this is a balanced, dangerous lineup. They have four Freshmen all rated from
14th to 67th by Rivals who are all 6'6 or 6'7. That's a hell of a lot of wing
depth. Potentially enough that they could play small and not have to rely on
the inconsistent bigs. It's going to be fun to see how this rotation shakes
out. The main concern is the concern
most years: how consistent will the shooting be? None of the returning players
are lethal from the 3-point line, so that will need to come from the new guys.
The big caveat to everything about the Jayhawks
this year is the pending NCAA investigation. I'm going to ignore that, but it
could certainly pop up in disastrous ways this season. Looking beyond that,
this is an experienced and talented team. Unlike last year, Bill Self won't
have to rely on new players. They have a pair of top 50 Freshmen wings just in
case, but even if they don't play a minute, the team should be fine. PG Devon
Dotson is back after making an All-Conference team as a Freshman. Udoka
Azubuike (C) is back from injury and ready to be the most dominant big man in
the Big 12. Silvio De Sousa (F/C) has regained his eligibility after an NCAA
investigation, which gives the Jayhawks perhaps the scariest frontcourt in the
country. Marcus Garrett (G) adds defense on the perimeter. Ochai Agbajii (G/F)
will shoot up draft boards if he continues his development from his Freshman
season. Iowa transfer Isaiah Moss (G) gives them some extra depth as well.
The Jayhakws lose over half their production from
last year. That hurts, obviously, but most of the players who left were hard to
fit around. Dedric Lawson had an odd skillset for a big man. LaGerald Vick
opted for hero ball a lot. Quentin Grimes had a rough Freshman campaign. The
roster this year without them should gel a lot easier, even though they are
without the same explosive high-end talent of some other top teams.
Three incredible talents are gone from last year.
RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish, and especially Zion Williamson toyed with most
opponents last year and made the Blue Devils the team that no one wanted to
match up against come tournament time. Some obvious roster holes eventually did
them in and all three of those players are gone now. So, how come I still have
them at #4? Mostly, it comes down to PG Tre Jones returning for a Sophomore
season. I'd argue that he was the least replaceable player on last year's
roster. With him on the roster this year, I feel a lot better assuming that
everything else will figure itself out. He probably won't be the best player on
the court or the highest scorer, but everything will run smoother on both ends
with him.
And there is a lot to figure out about this
roster. Last year, they couldn't find a fifth man to step up and play with the
4 super Freshmen. Those same disappointing guys are back, and I still don't
trust Jack White (F), Javin DeLaurier (F), or Alex O'Connell (G) to be more
than serviceable rotation players. That puts a lot of pressure on their pair of
top 10 Freshmen bigs (Matthew Hurt, Vernon Carey Jr.) and top 40 Freshmen wings
(Cassius Stanley, Wendell Moore) to be immediately ready for starter's minutes.
There's a chance this team implodes, but I figure Jones + new talent
will eventually figure itself out. Don't be surprised if they start a little
rough early on though.
Over half of the production (minutes, points,
rebounds, etc.) is gone from last year's team. Only 4 players are back from a
team that only finished 26th according to Kenpom last year. I worry that I'm
drinking the Kool-aid for the Gators, but it's easy to see why. Sophomore PG
Andrew Nembhard exploded toward the end of last year. If you can't tell by now,
I'm big on any team with a good point guard, and he's a great one. Graduate
transfer Kerry Blackshear (C) from Virginia Tech immediate figures to be one of
the best big men in the country. That's a hell of an inside-out duo. Keyontae
Johnson and Noah Locke are rising Sophomores. Scottie Lewis (G), the 8th rated
Freshman in the country, leads a very talented recruiting class. Blackshear
isn't even their only grad transfer. Tyree Appleby (G) from Cleveland State was
an All-Conference player in the Horizon League. Even if he isn't good enough to
start, he'll give them better depth. Mike White has all the pieces in place for
the best Florida team since prime Billy Donovan.
It's risky to believe in the Tar Heels this year.
They lose the top 5 players from last year's team. The only returning starter
is big man Garrison Brooks, who was by far the least important starter. Roy
Williams has reloaded as effectively as he could. They nabbed the 4th rated
Freshman in the country - PG Cole Anthony - who looks like the real deal. The
quicker that 26th rated Freshman big man Armando Bacot adapts to Williams'
preferred two-big lineup, the better. Graduate transfers Christian Keeling
(Charleston Southern) and Justin Pierce (Williams & Mary) were both
All-Conference guards at their last schools. Returning guards Leaky Black and
Brandon Robinson give them even more back court depth. The big concern with the
Tar Heels roster is that it's very light on bigs. Brooks is the only front
court player who's proven that he can stay on the court. Juniors Sterling
Manley (F) and Brandon Huffman (F) have been little more than fringe rotation
players so far. If Armando Bacot doesn't develop quickly, UNC could be eaten
alive by opponents in the paint.
I'm apparently higher on LSU than anyone. The
Preseason AP Poll has them at 22. Kenpom places them at 38. 7th doesn't seem
like that much of a reach though. They bring back over half of last year's
minutes (59%), points (54%), and rebounds (53%). Losing SEC Defensive Player of
the Year Tremont Waters hurts, but they still have Javonte Smart and
All-Conference Skylar Mays in the backcourt. Sophomore Emmitt Williams (a former
top 25 recruit) will start in the frontcourt alongside 16th rated Freshman
Trendon Watford (F). They have good depth pieces with Sophomores Marlon Taylor
and Darius Days. Top Junior College transfer Charles Manning Jr and redshirt
Freshman Aundre Hyatt will also help out. If Kentucky or UNC had this same
roster, they'd be universally considered a top 10 team. Maybe people are just
down on LSU because possible NCAA sanctions hang over them.
As much as I love Gonzaga, they're team this year
really worries me. It's a very imbalanced roster. The frontcourt is awesome.
Killian Tillie, when he isn't injured, is one of the toughest matchups in the
country with his shooting and size. Junior Corey Kispert made a jump last year,
even though he looks more comfortable at PF than SF (where he's still likely to
play this year). Sophomore big man Filip Petrusev looks ready to start if
needed. Oumar Ballo is a 5-star Freshman Center from Mali who is oozing with
potential. The Zags bring in four other 4-star Freshman all 6'6 or taller.
My concern is with the backcourt. By my count,
there are only 3 rotation guards on this roster and two of them are transfers. There’s
Ryan Woolridge (G) from North Texas, where he was an All-Conference player.
That's no guarantee that he's ready to play at the level that Gonzaga needs.
Admon Gilder (G) comes from Texas A&M, where he wasn't exactly a star
player. There's a chance that Sophomore guard Joel Ayayi (a former 4-star
recruit) may take advantage of all the newly available backcourt minutes, but
last year he didn't make much of an impression whenever he did play. The next
best guard on the roster is 3-star Freshman Brock Ravet, who I don't expect
much from. Guards and ballhandlers matter more than bigs in college. I think
Gonzaga's talent is overwhelming enough to stay in the top 10 , but they have
the look of a team that's going to be upset early in the NCAA tournament unless
the guards are a lot better than I expect.
Depth is overrated in college. I'd rather have 5
A- players and an awful bench than a 10-man rotation of B+ talent. Having the
best 6th man is meaningless if the starters call all play 36 minutes when it
matters. That's my hesitation with Louisville. Jordan Nwora (F) is great. After
that, I'm not even sure who is starting. Dwayne Sutton isn't a second star.
Upperclassmen Steven Enoch (C), Ryan McMahon (G), Malik Williams (F), Darius
Perry (G) aren't expected to make substantial leaps. The Freshman class
includes 4 top 100 recruits, including 19th rated Samuell Williamson (G/F).
Transfer PG LaMarr Kimble from St. Joeseph's should be ready to play meaningful
minutes. I worry that this will be a team with Nwora and 8 other guys who
aren't ready to be more than a 3rd or 4th option on a good team.
The flip side of having that much depth is that
the Cardinals have a lot of chances to find a breakout player. If one or two of
the 10 players other than Nwora can put together an All-Conference season, then
Louisville could be a Final Four team. I'm just not sure that will happen.
This the first team that was 100% off my radar at
this time last year. They finished 44th on Kenpom last year and even won an
NCAA Tournament game. They lose the backcourt pair of CJ Jackson and Keyshawn
Woods. Sophomore guard Luther Muhammad can step up. Most of this high ranking
though has to do with the Wesson brothers in the frontcourt. Kaleb Wesson in
particular is going to be a star. The recruiting class has a trio of top 50ish
Freshman and PG DJ Carlton will have the most pressure to fit into the rotation
- if not the starting lineup - right away. I just trust that Chris Holtman has
the right pieces for a great year.
A coach I don't trust is Mark Turgeon. His teams
have a habit of underperforming their talent. The only significant loss from
last year's 24th ranked team is big man Bruno Fernando. A strong recruiting
class and the continued development of Sophomore F/C Jalen Smith should make up
for that loss. PG Anthony Cowan was an All-Conference player last year. Even if
he doesn't get any better, he'll be one of the best Point Guards in the
country. The Terrapins has depth and talent. The only question is if they have
a coach who is able to get the most out of them. A Final Four or a First Round
loss look equally likely right now.
There's a phenomenon we all fall victim too
that's known as "Final Four blindness". That's when a team makes a
Final Four one year, and people just assume they'll have success the next year,
regardless of which players left. That's how last year, a clearly undermanned
Villanova was a preseason top 10 team or a depleted Syracuse team was put in
the top 20 in the 2016 preseason polls. The idea is that winning is in those
team's DNA and the “next man up” will be ready to play. And that leads me to
Virginia.
The Caveliers are a somewhat special case, since
they've kept up elite success for many years now, finishing in the top 12 on
Kenpom the last 6 years*. They lost a lot more than in past years though. Kyle
Guy, Ty Jerome, and DeAndre Hunter all left early for the NBA and with them
went 2/3s of Virginia’s minutes and points last year. They still have
undersized PG Kihei Clark, and big man Mamadi Diakite is ready for a breakout
season. 7-footer Jay Huff finally has some room in the rotation too, so the
cupboard isn't entirely bare. Junior wing Braxton Key no longer has to be an
understudy. The recruiting class is strong with two top 70 Freshman,
highly-rated Junior College transfer Tomas Woldentensae (wing), and redshirt
Freshman big Francisco Caffaro. It's all a question of how quickly they can all
adapt to Tony Bennett's system. 12th may turn out to be a little high (thanks,
Final Four blindness), but it's hard to see a Tony Bennett team falling out of
the top 25.
*The fact that I have them at 12th is purely a
coincidence.
The Seminoles aren't an interesting team. There
are no returning All-Conference players or guys with clear NBA potential. What
they always are is long and consistently good. They still have two 7 footers on
the roster, although both are new to the team (one Freshman, one transfer).
Only about 2/5s of last year's production is back, so that's a little
worrisome. The backcourt pair of Trent Foster and MJ Walker remains intact
though. Expect another year where you look up in March and FSU is a team no one
is looking forward to playing in the NCAA tournament.
I have no faith in Juwan Howard as a coach. He
could be great, but most of these stories of NBA players taking over as college
coaches have gone poorly. Regardless, almost any coach is likely to be a
downgrade from John Beilien anyway. Here's the thing though: there's normally a
grace year before a new coach can undo the work of the old coach. Tubby Smith
won a championship in his first year at Kentucky with a Rick Pitino roster.
Kevin Ollie won a championship the year after Jim Calhoun left before tanking
that UConn program. So, looking at this roster, I think inertia can take it
pretty far. Senior PG Zavier Simpson is a tenacious defender with experience
starting for a Final Four team two years ago. He's as steady as it gets. Isaiah
Livers is a talented forward and Jon Teske (C) is a nice option in the middle.
This team is deep with Beilien players who will be ready to play. The big
concern I have is that the three players last year who you could trust to get a
shot all went pro. Offense might be a little harder to find with this year's
group.
I don't know what to do with the Boilermakers.
Last year, they lost 4 starters from a top 5 team in the country and still
managed to finish in the top 10. This year, they lose three starters, including
Carsen Edwards. I cannot overstate how much the team ran through Edwards last
year. My gut tells me that they don't have anyone to make up for all the
scoring and leadership they lost when he went pro. But, my gut is normally
wrong about Purdue. 15th looks feasible for them. Junior wing Nojel Eastern is
probably the next star for the team. High Point transfer Jahaad Proctor can
hopefully take over at PG. Matt Haarms is among the most intimidating players
in the country at 7'3 and 250 lbs. Mix that with a lot of experienced depth and
Matt Painter has quite a team. They just need to find a way to improve the 3-point
shooting of the returning players and find which player is ready to take the
last shot when it matters most.
Last year, Nevada brought back all its key
players and went from 25th the year before on Kenpom to 27th. Bringing back all
your players only means a team will get better if those players have room to
get better. Nevada has a bunch of guys who had already peaked, so the team
couldn’t get better. Every year, a few teams trick everyone into believing in
them under the assumption that more experience means overall improvement. The
Gaels bring back nearly 90% of their production from last year. Former WAC
All-Conference big man Aaron Menzies (Seattle) hopes to seamlessly replace the
lone departure from the roster, Jordan Hunter (C). Otherwise, the whole team
that finished 31st last year is back. Jordan Ford (PG) and Malik Fitts (F) are
both All-Conference players who shot over 40% from behind the arc. Wing Tanner
Krebs isn't far behind them. There are no recruits of note coming in, so this
is a question of how much better the same guys can get. Personally, I think the
Gaels have underperformed for a few years now and are due a strong year as a
nasty 4 or 5 seed come March. They scheduled a lot harder in the non-conference
for a change, so maybe people will take notice earlier.
This ranking is entirely based on reputation.
Villanova finished 30th last year. Their whole offense ran through Phil Booth
and Eric Paschall, who both graduated. Bringing back PG Collin Gillespie is
nice. They'll add the 11th rated Freshman in the country, Jeremiah
Robinson-Earl (F), to a frontcourt that already has Saddiq Bey, Jermaine
Samuels, and Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree. They'll win a lot of games on talent.
There is no backcourt depth though with incoming Freshman Bryan Antoine (15th
rated in the country) still coming back from a shoulder surgery in May. There's
a chance he may redshirt.
Like FSU, Baylor is a boring-good team. About
3/5s of lasts year's production is back. Rising Sophomore Jared Butler should
be solid in the PG position. Mark Vital gives defense on the wing. Before his
injury, Tristan Clark had a strong case for being the best big man in the Big
12 last year. He's back and ready to dominate. A lot of depth pieces return as
well. It's hard to see this team landing outside the top 25. And, they have an
X-factor. They have four transfers sitting out this season. If any of them get
waivers to play right away or become eligible in the winter semester, then
that's a big gain for the Bears.
Senior PG Myles Powell will be one of the 10 best
players in the country if not the national player of the year. Barring injury,
that much is certain. Only one player is gone from last year's team and he's
being replaced by a 4 star Freshman big man. The big question is “who is ready
to step up?” With the same team, despite Powell's heroics, the Pirates still
only finished 60th last year. He needs help. I think Myles Cale is
the most likely to turn into the second star they need. I'm betting on them
being able to figure things out, because it would be a waste for Myles Powell
to be on a mediocre team.
Final Four blindness strikes again. There is no
reason to think that the Red Raiders will be great this year. They bring back
only 3 players from last year's National Runner-Up team. Lethal shooting
off-guard Davide Moretti is the only returning starter. 75% of last year's
production is gone. But, Texas Tech went from 11th to 5th last year after
experiencing a similar amount of turnover. Consider this top 20 ranking me hedging
my bets on Chris Beard. Maybe he really is a top 5 coach in the country. And it
isn't like the roster is entirely depleted. Moretti works well in any lineup.
Virginia Tech grad transfer Chris Clarke and SF Austin grad transfer TJ
Holyfield immediately restock the front court. Jahmius Ramsey (wing) is the
21th rated recruit in the country. Kevin McCullar, a 4-star wing, is ready to
play after a redshirt freshman season. It's not that hard to see how Beard
could turn these pieces into another good team. If he pulls it off, I'll accept
that last year was the beginning of a trend, not a fluke.
I can't figure out if Shaka Smart is just unlucky
or not good at getting the most out of high-end talent (Or both). Some coaches
are just better at getting 3-star players to buy-in than 4-star players. The
Longhorns have 10 players on the roster who were top 100 recruits as Freshman.
That's elite, and it should at least be enough to improve upon last year's 25th
finish. I really like the backcourt trio of Matt Coleman, Courtney Ramey, and
Jase Febres, although I'm not sure any of them are stars. Maybe 27th rated
Freshman Will Baker (C) will be Shaka Smart's next NBA lottery big man.
A team like Oregon is fun. There are so many ways
for this team to be good, and it's not clear which ones will or won't work out.
This is a crazy high variability team. They could be top 10 or not even make it
to the NCAA tournament. Last year, the Ducks finished 28th and lost 2/3s of
their production, including three players who went pro early. Dana Altman has
cobbled together a lineup with a ton of potential. Payton Pritchard, the lone
starter left from the Final Four team a few years ago, is in his Senior season
and ready for an All-Conference campaign. Sophomores Will Richardson (G) and
Francis Okoro are both former 4-star recruits who could make the Sophomore
leap. They add Christopher Duarte (wing), who is the #1 Junior College transfer
in the country. They also add grad transfer Shakur Juiston (from UNLV) who,
coincidentally enough, was the top Juco transfer last year. Also, Athony Mathis
is an All-Conference transfer from New Mexico. N'Faly Dante (C) is a raw 5-star
prospect. CJ Walker (F) is a top 35 recruit. That's 8 players who could all end
up being starters or even stars. I'll be curious to see how or if this team
comes together.
The Buffalo have possibly the best PG in the Pac
12 (McKinley Wright), who may not even be done improving. 94% or more of their
minutes, scoring, rebounds, and assists are back. Tyler Bey (wing) was first
team All-Conference and the Most Improved Player in the Pac 12 last year. They
only finished 63rd last year with the same players but I'm bullish about their
ability to improve upon that.
The Musketeers are sneaky good this year. They
lost about 2/5s of last year's production, which is pretty typical. Quentin
Goodin has been in their backcourt forever. All-Conference wing Naji Marshall
and guard Paul Scruggs are Juniors who can carry the scoring load. MAC
transfers Jason Carter (F from Ohio U.) and Bryce Moore (G from Western
Michigan) give them depth. A large recruiting class of top 100ish Freshmen
should help out. This is the year when we find out if Travis Steele is able to
carry on the tradition of great Xavier coaches.
Admiral Schofield, Grant Williams, and Jordan
Bone are all gone. The Volunteers are going to look a lot different. I still
kind of like them though as a second tier SEC team this season. The backcourt
of Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden is back. 18th rated Freshman Josiah James
(wing) is hopefully ready to contribute immediately. As long as they can slap
together a serviceable front court, they can be pretty good.
Sleepers
These are 10 teams (5 from Big 7 Conferences, 5
from mid-major conferences) that I really like for some reason but can't
justify including them in my top 25. Occasionally, everything goes right and
they breakout, like LSU last year. But, most of the teams will prove why they couldn't
earn a top 25 spot.
Major Sleepers
I picked the Crimson Tide here last year and I'm
ready to go double-or-nothing this year. I really like this backcourt. Kira
Lewis (PG) was a breakout Freshman last year despite being the second youngest
college player in the country. Another year of growth from him could be
terrifying. Junior guard John Petty shows flashes of star potential. I keep
waiting for him to put it all together. James Bolden averaged 30 mpg for West
Virginia before transferring. Herb Jones gives stability on the wing. Junior
bigs Galin Smith and Alex Reese will team with highly-rated Juco transfer James
Rojas in the middle. Best of all, they replaced Avery Johnson as head coach
with Nates Oates, who used similar pieces to make Buffalo a powerhouse
mid-major team the last two seasons. This is an exciting team.
Markus Howard (PG) is one of the best scorers in
the country. Sacar Anim plays a good Robin to his Batman in the backcourt. Utah
transfer Jayce Johnson (C) can hopefully provide a defensive presence in the
middle. What hurts Marquette is that the Hauser brothers both transferred away.
Howard and the Hausers together created a lethal offense. Without the Hausers,
Howard will be required to do even more somehow. Also, the Hausers opted to
transfer right after Howard announced that he would be returning to school. To
me, that suggests there may be some discord in the locker room. If other
players aren’t excited by the idea of Howard taking all the shots, that could
limit how good the team will get.
I think it's crazy to put Memphis in the top 20,
but I get why people are doing it. They have the top recruit in the country,
James Wiseman (C), and beat Duke and Kentucky for the highest rated recruiting
class in the country: the first time that neither school had the top class
since 2008. Penny Hardaway has a 6-man Freshman class with two 5-start
recruits, 5 top 50 recruits, or 6 top 90 recruits (depending on how you want to
look at it). My concern is two-fold: 1) developing Freshmen is hard. 2) the
makeup of this roster is all wrong. Calipari and Coach K make turning Freshmen
into a championship core look easy. Most coaches have trouble getting that many
new players to gel. Penny Hardaway has proven himself as a recruiter. The jury
is still out about him as a coach. And he's going to need the Freshmen to be
playable, because they don't have enough upperclassmen. The main returning
player is 5'9 Sophomore PG Tyler Harris, who is more of a microwave scorer than
a ball-distributer. That's a problem, because the two 5-star Freshmen on the
te3am are bigs. Having great big men is meaningless is you can't get the ball
to them. That means a lot is riding on 37th rated Freshman Boogie Ellis to be
the floor general right away. Normally though, 37th is in the range where a
player needs some time to figure things out. So, yeah, Memphis is too young,
has an unproven coach, and even in the best-case scenario has a roster that
doesn't fit together. Maybe the Tigers can put together a tough 6 seed in the
tournament this year, but I'm much more afraid of them next year.
The Tigers lost the three players that gave them
their identity: guards Bryce Brown and Jared Harper and forward Chuma Okeke.
The backcourt is pretty weak now, unless Samir Doughty is secretly a star. Big
men Danjel Purifoy, Anfernee McLemore, and Austin Wiley all fell down the
rotation from where they were supposed to be last year. Auburn has a lot of
talent on the roster, including 30th rated Freshman Isaac Okoro (F), although
most of it is in the frontcourt. Bruce Pearl could put it all together, but
it's going to be tough.
It's a coaching downgrade. Half the production
from last year is gone. American Athletic Conference Player of the Year Jarron
Cumberland has trouble with injuries. They could just be a middling team this
year. But, if Cumberland can stay healthy, he's a dominant player. He'll be
paired in the backcourt with his cousin (?) Jaevin Cumberland, who is
transferring from Oakland. The team is getting a couple other transfers as well
as 4-star Freshman guard Zach Harvey. If the Bearcats can keep some of former
coach Mick Cronnin's hardnosed defense, then this could be a quietly good team.
Mid-Major Sleepers
The Aggies snuck up and stole the Mountain West
crown from a loaded Nevada team last year. They bring back a hell of an
inside-out duo: Sam Merrill (Guard, Mountain West Player of the Year) and
Neemias Queta (Center, MW Defensive Player of the Year and MW Freshman of the
Year). As long as the rest of the team is at least replacement-level talent,
it's hard to see how Utah State doesn't repeat atop the Mountain West. My
concern is that they still only finished 38th last year. Can they really rely
on Merrill and Queta to get much better?
83% of the minutes are back. 89% of the scoring.
84% of the rebounds. The top 6 scorers are back, including the All-Conference
backcourt of Marcus Evans and De'Riante Jenkins. They'll probably start four
Seniors and a Junior. It all looks great on paper. However, the Rams only
finished 42nd last year, and the age of the roster suggests that they may have
gotten everything they can out of the roster already. I suspect that the team
has peaked, but I could be wrong. If I'm wrong, this is a team that comfortably
gets a 5 seed in the NCAA tournament and pesters a lot of teams.
95% of the stats from last year's team are back.
That includes the 1st Team All-A10 pair of Jon Axel Gudmundsson (G) and Kellan
Grady (G). Grady has some NBA potential and still hasn't peaked. That backcourt
is among the best in the country. The Wildcat roster is a little strange. They
are overflowing with big guards but have only one player taller than 6'6 who
averaged more than 10mpg last year. What makes them a sleeper and not a
surefire bet is that they only finished 85th last year and most of their
opportunity for improvement is tied to Kellan Grady. That might be too much
pressure to put on one player.
It's been a while since BYU had a really good
team, so it's easy to forget that they recruit well and, thanks to Mormon
missions, often have grown men on the roster. While they only finished 86th
last year, they are set up to make a big jump. All-Conference Seniors TJ Haws
and Yoeli Childs are back. The team adds former WAC Player of the Year Jake
Toolson (G) to the roster. Jesse Wade (G) joins from Gonzaga. There are always
a couple guys returning from their Mormon Missions. And, hopefully new coach
Mark Pope will be an improvement on Dave Rose, who seemed to stall out the last
few years. I'm not ready to call it a three-team race for the WCC, but there's
a chance it could be.
Simply put, the Hilltoppers have a high-major
roster. Sophomore Center Charles Bassey (C-USA Freshman of the Year and
Defensive Player of the Year) could've been a 1st round pick this past summer
had he gone pro. Junior Josh Anderson (wing) was a former top 60 recruit.
All-Conference guard Taveion Hollingsworth is the type of lead guard every team
needs. IUPUI grad transfer Camron Justice will be immediately impactful. And
there's 4-star Freshman guard Jordan Rawls who could develop. However, coach
Rick Stansburry has always been a much better recruiter than coach. He's wasted
a lot of talent over the years. Just last year, he had top 10 Freshman and only
finished 116th. No one would be surprised if this team also shits the bed when
it becomes time to play.
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