It's time for another edition of my Emmy predictions. This is a tradition of mine built on two pillars:
1) Using far more detail than anyone needs.
2) Ending up with predictions that are only moderately above average in accuracy.
It's this mix of content without quality that I really think sets me apart. My goal in this and most activities on this blog is to defend my reasoning more than getting everything right. I'd much rather hear "I get why he was thinking that" than "he's always right". Wait, scratch that. That's a lie. I'm content with the former and striving for the latter. Regardless, let's see how it goes.
Note: In all categories I list the nominees from most to least likely to win in bold in the paragraph.
In most acting categories, the nominees choose a submission episode. Emmy voters are instructed to base their picks only on the submission episodes rather than for the entire season. In the pre-streaming days, the submission episode was a significant indicator of who would win. In recent years, it has been rendered insignificant. No one wins anymore for having a great submission episode. I will not base my predictions on the submission episode either, since it tends to point me the wrong way.
* Indicates a show that I haven't watched this season.
# Indicates a show I've seen before, not this season.
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Comedy Series
*Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso) (Apple TV+)
Sudeikis is a lock to win and it’ll be one of the more lopsided votes.
Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method) (Netflix)
Kenan Thompson (Kenan) (NBC)
*Anthony Anderson (black-ish) (ABC)
*William H. Macy (Shameless) (Showtime)
Douglas has lost twice. Kenan is on a first nomination for a show most people forget aired. Anderson has been nominated 6 times in a row with no sign of strengthening. Macy lost 5 consecutive times before falling off the ballot for the last two years. None make a good case and they are locks to lose.
Biggest Snub: *Ted Danson (Mr. Mayor)
Honestly, the field isn’t strong past Sudeikis. Danson was fine in Mr. Mayor but that show is still figuring itself out. He’s certainly more deserving that Macy.
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series
*Josh O'Connor (The Crown) (Netflix) The Crown is poised to dominate. This season was dominated by Charles and Diana. And O’Connor has seen his star rise in the last year. This is the easiest pick.
*Billy Porter (Pose) (FX Networks) Porter won in 2019. The final season of Pose gave him a TON to do. He’s a close second by my measure.
*Regé-Jean Page (Bridgerton) (Netflix) I don’t think Bridgerton love is strong enough, but he’s the breakout star most likely to benefit from any unexpected support.
*Matthew Rhys (Perry Mason) (HBO) He won somewhat unexpectedly in 2018 for the final season of The Americans. Who’s to say the love won’t carry over?
*Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) (NBC) Winner in 2017 and a nominee every year since. It’s probably foolish to put him this low. I just think the This Is Us love has cooled, even though a weak year saw it rebound in nominations.
*Jonathan Majors (Lovecraft Country) (HBO) It’s hard for someone on a canceled show who also isn’t an established name to win.
Biggest Snub: *Pedro Pascal (The Mandalorian)
I refuse to believe that the helmet is doing all the work in that performance.
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie
Hugh Grant (The Undoing) (HBO) I 100% don’t know. This is an insanely weak group of nominees despite such a strong series field. I suppose The Undoing’s buzz plus Grant’s clout is enough.
*Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton) (Disney+) I’d like to believe that the backlash to all the Hamilton nominations will give voters some pause, but I also believe voters will happily check Miranda as soon as they see his name.
*Leslie Odom, Jr. (Hamilton) (Disney+) I mean, he did beat Miranda for the Tony.
*Paul Bettany (WandaVision) (Disney+) Is it crazy to anyone else that this is a performance on a show that is Emmy nominated? And I love Paul Bettany and thought he was great on the show.
Ewan McGregor (Halston) (Netflix) Oh yeah. This show happened.
Biggest Snub: Ethan Hawke (The Good Lord Bird)
I thought he was the front runner to win it all. This snub still perplexes me.
Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy Series
*Jean Smart (Hacks) (HBO Max) Emmy voters love Jean Smart. She got her 10th and 11th nominations this year. She has 3 wins but never for a lead role. Hacks is a showcase for her. There is absolutely no reason to believe she’ll lose this.
*Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant) (HBO Max) If there’s an Anthony Hopkins to Jean Smart’s Chadwick Boseman, it’s Kaley Cuoco. She got a ton of praise for this show, which showcases both dramatic and comic chops. My only hesitations are that Smart is a buzz saw and Cuoco never got a nomination for the run of The Big Bang Theory. So how much do they really love her?
Allison Janney (Mom) (CBS) This is her 15th acting nomination. She’s already won 7 times in 4 categories. It must be noted though that this is her first nomination for Mom since 2018. This is a leftover nomination because Emmy voters lack originality.
*Tracee Ellis Ross (black-ish) (ABC) 5-time Lead Actress nominee for Black-ish. Similar to Anthony Anderson though, if she was ever going to win, it would’ve happened by now.
Aidy Bryant (Shrill) (Hulu) The nomination is the win, given the amount of love Shrill got elsewhere.
Biggest Snub: *Sara Bareilles (Girls5Eva)
It is a travesty that Girl5Eva was overlooked, and Bareilles was the steady force in the middle who also turned out to be an excellent Tina Fey.
Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama Series
*Emma Corrin (The Crown) (Netflix) I don’t see the vote split being a problem. My only question is which performer from The Crown gets the award. I’ll lead toward Corrin, who is the newcomer. The fact that Zendaya beat Colman last year, very unexpectedly*, makes me think Corrin is the best way to bridge the gap. They get to coronate the ingénue and award the prestige series.
*Olivia Colman (The Crown) (Netflix) Maybe everyone was flustered by COVID last year and Colman will get the win now that seemed likely then. She did fade to the background in this season though. Then again, Clare Foy won for her second season too.
*Mj Rodriguez (Pose) (FX Networks) I don’t know how to calibrate the Pose love. The second season fell off a lot in the nominations then this final season came up big. I don’t know how much of that is renewed love and how much is a lack of choices. Emmy voters are a slow-moving ship that don’t fall in and out of shows. That makes me not that optimistic about Rodriguez’s chances. Maybe I’m wrong though. I wouldn’t mind being wrong.
Uzo Aduba (In Treatment) (HBO) Emmy voters love Aduba. She has 3 wins in 3 categories and has only lost one time. The big question is if enough people watched In Treatment. And I doubt that.
*Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid's Tale) (Hulu)
She’s a former winner, but The Handmaid’s Tale is in the twilight of its Emmy attention.
*Jurnee Smollett (Lovecraft Country) (HBO)
Like I said with her co-star, canceled shows with non-established performers have a hard time winning. In her favor though is that Smollett has been around for a surprisingly long time, given her age. There could be a lot of love bubbling up for her that I don’t realize. A bit like Zendaya.
*Remember, Zendaya wasn’t an upset because anyone thought she did a bad job. She was an upset because Emmy wins tend to be correlated with other nominations and wins. That Euphoria was ignored everywhere else means that, thanks to generally lazy Emmy voting, there was no reason to expect a Zendaya win.
Biggest Snub: *Mariska Hargitay (Law & Order: SVU)
Former winner. Former perennial nominee. SVU had its most interesting season in years and she is the undisputed center of this show which has seen 5 different presidents in its run.
Outstanding Lead Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie
*Kate Winslet (Mare Of Easttown) (HBO) It’s a 3-actress race. I’m going to lean Winslet. Her show is the most recent. People know her well as a celebrity and can appreciate how much she disappeared into the role. She’s also the most decorated already.
*Anya Taylor-Joy (The Queen's Gambit) (Netflix) There was a time late in 2020 when this award was Taylor-Joy’s to lose. She was everywhere. This is her breakthrough role (even though she’s been in a lot of great stuff for a few years now). The only thing hurting her is the recency of Mare of Eastown. I think the margins will be razor thin in the voting between the top 3 though. This is not one that I’ll feel bad about getting wrong.
*Michaela Coel (I May Destroy You) (HBO) The Fleabag dominance 2 years ago shook me. It didn’t seem like a big show. I figured it was just a show that the critics in my Twitter feed loved and would never be able to break through. That turned out to be very wrong. Could the same thing happen with I May Destroy You? I’m still dubious. While I May Destroy You was overwhelmingly the critical darling on 2020, I haven’t heard it whispered in the same ways as Fleabag. The thing about the Fleabag year was that everything I read and listened to said “I’d pick Phoebe Waller-Bridge/Fleabag, but I’m predicting the award will go to ____”. This year, I May Destroy You isn’t being mentioned as much. However, if I’m wrong about I May Destroy You, history says that the place they are most likely to award the multi-hyphenate creator is in acting rather than producing, writing, or directing.
*Elizabeth Olsen (WandaVision) (Disney+) I simply don’t see a scenario where Olsen sneaks in for a win.
Cynthia Erivo (Genius: Aretha) (National Geographic) Oh yeah, that was a show.
Biggest Snub: *Kate Mara (A Teacher)
The questionable subject matter did the show in, but this is the best I’ve seen Kate Mara in anything.
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