Oscar 2012 Breakdown

Hey, I know this is a month early, but I can't control how and when I get bored.

With 9 nominees this year, once again, people have to fight the urge to think the race for best picture is wide open. Depending on what you've read, everyone has their own theories about front-runners, dark horses, and why that movie with the annoyingly difficult name was nominated. Now, I have my own theories as well, but I wanted to give this an objective look, and as I'm prone to do, I brought in some statistics.

I compared all the major categories and 4 had the highest correlation of nominations to Best Picture win: Directing, Acting, Screenplay, and Editing. And, I decided to go back 50 years in my examination, since it's a nice round number and any further back the nominations process still was looking to get it's footing.

Alright. First chart. Below we have the 9 best picture nominees and which of the major categories they are nominated for.

 

	Directing	Acting	Screenplay	Editing	Most Noms.
The Artist	X	X	X	X
The Descendants	X	X	X	X
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close		X
The Help		X
Hugo	X		X	X	X
Midnight in Paris	X		X
Moneyball		X	X	X
The Tree of Life	X
Ware Horse

Next, we have the breakdown of how many Best Picture winners were nominated for each of the major categories, going back ten years at a time.

 

Years	Directing	Acting	Screenplay	Editing	Most Noms.
2001-2010	10	8	10	10	6
1991-2000	20	17	19	20	15
1981-1990	29	26	29	30	24
1971-1980	39	36	39	37	32
1961-1970	49	46	48	45	38

Here's a few facts I learned from the all this:

FACT: The only movie to win without a Director nomination was Driving Miss Daisy which had the most nominations that year including 3 different acting nominations.

FACT: The last movie to win without a Screenplay nomination was Titanic. Considering how many wins it got, that is a shocking snub.

FACT: Editing is pretty important these days, although I do think that 30 year streak is slightly coincidence. Regardless, numbers don't lie.

FACT: Acting doesn't matter as much these days if the director is the star.

BIGGEST FACT OF ALL: No movie in the last 50 years has won Best Picture with fewer than 3 power category nominations.

Given these facts and these facts alone, let's start narrowing down this year's Oscar picture.

First Elimination: “War Horse” (-)

It's funny how things change. Four months ago, this was the Oscar front-runner and a virtual lock. It turns out, critics got tired of Spielberg's ways and audiences are having a hard time getting past the “Story of a boy and his horse” tag. It's a shame too, because I found this to be a damn good (albeit highly transparent) film. The biggest hit for War Horse was the lack of a Directing nomination. This was completely a passion project for Spielberg. The lack of recognition there is the nail in the coffin and the stake through the heart. Odds: 1%

Second Elimination: “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” (Acting)

A lone acting nomination is the one thing that keeps the odds for this winning higher than “War Horse's”. It is not at all deserving of the win and something like “Bridesmaids” would've been a better ninth pick if they were going to waste it. Odds: 1%

Third Elimination

The directing nomination is certainly the most important of any of them. This movie is too polarizing though. And, for a movie with such precision for every shot, a lack of Editing nomination is pretty damning. This is no way this is winning. Personally, I'm fine with that. In an attempt to stay neutral though, I'll point out that “2001: A Space Odyssey” wasn't appreciated by the Academy either.  Odds: 3%

Fourth Elimination: The Help (Acting)

There are people out there telling you that “The Help” is a front-runner or perhaps an Oscar dark horse (pun not intended). I'm here to tell you, it's not going to happen. It has a lot of acting nominations, sure, but it is missing any other important recognition. A win like this has not happened since the early days of the Oscars. It would be the equivalent of the Jamaican bobsled team winning gold in the Olympics. It will get an acting win. Be happy with that. Odds: 5%

Update: I forgot to mention the White Guilt factor in this. Statistically, it can't be calculated, but it is an X-factor. Not as significant of one as some may lead you to believe.

Fifth Elimination: Moneyball (Acting, Screenplay, Editing)

I'm rather surprised this movie hung around for award season. That said, this has a lot going for it...except the directing nomination. And, let's be clear, it wouldn't've been the sixth, seventh, or either pick for directing. Overall, this was like making Field of Dreams, but with a production strategy like the Yankees: They paid big money to build the team with Oscar winning scribes (Sorkin), movie stars (Pitt), experienced players (Hoffman), and young guns (Hill), but didn't find anyone to pull them together as a team (the director). It'll get them into the playoffs, but it's no way to win a World Series. Odds: 5%

Sixth Elimination: Midnight in Paris (Directing, Screenplay)

It has the two biggest nominations historically and Woody Allen's sole best picture win was also with a movie that didn't have an editing nomination and was a heavy underdog by nomination count that year. There is a world in which this movie could win. To call it anything other than a surprise win would be foolish. Odds: 5%

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Before I go any further, this is where we go into the movies with an actual chance to win. Statistically, we are moving away from the outliers. From this point on, it really is a matter of me guessing.

Seventh Elimination: The Descendants (Directing, Screenplay, Acting, Editing)

On paper, it has everything it needs, except a few more nominations. What hurts it the most is the lack of a supporting nomination for Shailene Woodley. That means it's seen as a one-man-show in the Academy's eyes. We will see how it plays out. Alexander Payne + George Clooney is a great formula for Oscar nominations, but it has not equaled a lot of wins in the past. Odds: 15%

Eighth Elimination: ...uh...Hugo (Directing, Screenplay, Editing, Most Nominations)

It's a tough call and I'd love to see it win, especially given the competition. The last movies to win without an acting nomination were “Slumdog Millionaire” and “Return of the King”. Hugo is similar in that it is not a showcase for any particular actor, so it doesn't hurt that no one was nominated. It also has the most nominations which helps. It's a gut call that it won't win. But it has the best chance of any to pull off the upset. Odds: 30%

Predicted Winner: The Artist (Directing, Screenplay, Acting, Editing)

It has all the nominations, all the buzz, all the other wins, and all the charm. The one thing it's missing is all the ticket sales. That hasn't stopped the Academy from handing out the trophy in the past, but it is perhaps the one thing that could get in it's way. Personally, I hope it doesn't win because it's rather hokey, limited, and obvious. It is the most obvious pick however. Odds: 35%