It's time for another edition of my Emmy predictions. This is a tradition of mine built on two pillars:
1) Using far more detail than anyone needs.
2) Ending up with predictions that are only moderately above average in accuracy.
It's this mix of content without quality that I really think sets me apart. My goal in this and most activities on this blog is to defend my reasoning more than getting everything right. I'd much rather hear "I get why he was thinking that" than "he's always right". Wait, scratch that. That's a lie. I'm content with the former and striving for the latter. Regardless, let's see how it goes.
Note: In all categories I list the nominees from most to least likely to win in bold in the paragraph.
* Indicates a show that I haven't watched this season.
# Indicates a show I've seen before, not this season.
Outstanding Writing For A Comedy Series
*Jane Becker (Ted Lasso - "No Weddings And A Funeral") (Apple TV+)
I wish I could see the nomination ballots this year, because I’d bet that Ted Lasso only submitted a single episode for writing and directing this year. Last year, multiple episodes of Ted Lasso were nominated in directing and writing and both lost to the Hack pilot. Given voting patterns the last few years and Ted Lasso’s dominance virtually everywhere else, I’d wager that if only a single episode would’ve been nominated last year, it would’ve swept. Well, just one episode is nominated this year. You’d have to go back a while to find the last timer a Comedy Series winner with only a single writing nomination lost this – 2006, when My Name is Earl’s pilot beat The Office “Christmas Party” – so as long as I think Ted Lasso is winning for series, I should pick this.
*Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary - "Pilot") (ABC)
I just don’t know how to handle Abbott Elementary. If Ted Lasso had a vote split, I’d absolutely pick Abbott to win here. Lone nominated pilots do pretty well. I’m only picking against it because Emmy voters don’t believe in spreading the wealth unless they have to. That said, they sometimes make exceptions to give the star of the show this award, like Aziz Ansari winning this twice for Master of None. If voters rubber stamp Jean Smart for Lead Actress, maybe this is where they look to award Brunson. But again, Emmy voters aren’t that strategic.
*Steve Martin, John Hoffman (Only Murders In The Building - "True Crime") (Hulu)
It’s going to take a pilot episode to knock out Ted Lasso. I think Abbott Elementary has a little more juice, but maybe Only Murders In the Building is stronger than I’m giving it credit for; especially with season 2 airing all through the voting window.
*Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, Jen Statsky (Hacks - "The One, The Only") (HBO/HBO Max)
Hacks did win last year, but I fully believe the vote split of Ted Lasso had more to do with it than voters just really loving the show’s writing. It does help that the showrunners for Hacks wrote this. If you check, this award tends to go to showrunners. There are a lot of showrunners nominated though.
*Alec Berg, Bill Hader (Barry - "starting now") (HBO/HBO Max)
*Duffy Boudreau (Barry - "710N") (HBO/HBO Max)
Barry continues to pull strong nomination hauls, however, it’s never won this before and has to worry about a split vote.
*Sarah Naftalis (What We Do In The Shadows - "The Casino") (FX)
*Stefani Robinson (What We Do In The Shadows - "The Wellness Center") (FX)
Repeat what I said about Barry, except What We Do In the Shadows has had worse nomination hauls.
Outstanding Writing For A Drama Series
*Jesse Armstrong (Succession - "All The Bells Say") (HBO/HBO Max)
Succession has won every season it has been nominated, even winning this in Game of Thrones’ victory lap final season. With only one episode nominated here, I’d call Succession a virtual lock.
*Dan Erickson (Severance - "The We We Are") (Apple TV+)
If there’s a dark horse contender in the drama categories, Severance seems most likely to me.
*Hwang Dong-hyuk (Squid Game - "One Lucky Day") (Netflix)
I suspect Squid Game is seen as being more directed than written. It would have to dominate all night to take the writing award with it.
*Thomas Schnauz (Better Call Saul - "Plan And Execution") (AMC)
This is one of the only awards with a history of Emmy voters getting sentimental. They gave this to the series finales of both Friday Night Lights and The Americans, which were critical darlings. Could the same thing happen to Better Call Saul? And if it does, could they award it now rather than waiting a year for the series finale?
*Chris Mundy (Ozark - "A Hard Way To Go") (Netflix)
Ozark pulled in three writing nominations for the shallow 2020 Emmy awards but otherwise has been ignored in this category. Given how quietly the final season landed this year, I don’t expect it to gain steam now.
*Ashley Lyle, Bart Nickerson (Yellowjackets - "Pilot") (Showtime)
*Jonathan Lisco, Ashley Lyle, Bart Nickerson (Yellowjackets - "F Sharp") (Showtime)
A vote split for a show that was already an underdog removes it from consideration. Even if it was just the pilot, pilot episodes don’t have as much success in this category.
Outstanding Writing For A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie
*Mike White (The White Lotus) (HBO/HBO Max)
Like in the directing category, the entire run of The White Lotus gets a single nomination. That’s a leg up. Even if it’s true that voters will look at all of these as nominations for the entire series rather than the specific episode listed, think of it this way: I look at the nominees and Mike White, one man, wrote the whole season of The White Lotus? That’s incredible. And that’s why I lean toward The White Lotus here.
*Danny Strong (Dopesick - "The People vs. Purdue Pharma") (Hulu)
Danny Strong is an Emmy favorite, winning this award in 2012 for Recount, another story based on real events. I do think Dopesick’s story of outrage hit’s audiences more directly than The White Lotus’s dark comedy. I just believe more in the power of The White Lotus’s full season nomination.
*Elizabeth Meriwether (The Dropout - "I'm In A Hurry") (Hulu)
The Dropout was clearly liked. Look at the nomination counts though. All these awards are Dopesick vs. The White Lotus.
*Patrick Somerville (Station Eleven - "Unbroken Circle") (HBO/HBO Max)
There’s the slightest of chances that the emotional catharsis of Station Eleven could pull off the upset. Or maybe that’s wishful thinking.
*Molly Smith Metzler (MAID - "Snaps") (Netflix)
It’s hard for me to imagine any voter looking at this as something other than a Margaret Qualley acting showcase.
*Sarah Burgess (Impeachment: American Crime Story - "Man Handled") (FX)
This season just wasn’t popular enough.
Outstanding Writing For A Variety Special
(I originally wrote this up for the Creative Arts Emmys when I thought the award was going then. So I’m just leaving it in that format.)
·
· Ali Wong: Don Wong (Netflix)
· The Daily Show With Trevor Noah Presents: Jordan Klepper Fingers The Globe - Hungary For Democracy (Comedy Central)
· Jerrod Carmichael: Rothaniel (HBO/HBO Max)
· Nicole Byer: BBW (Big Beautiful Weirdo) (Netflix)
· Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special (Netflix)
9 of the last 10 wins went to a stand-up special. Often it’s the biggest name that wins. Rothaniel actually had the most buzz of any of these. However, while I often point out that the TV academy isn’t sentimental with their votes, I can absolutely see Nothing Special getting a win.
Will Win: Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special
Could Win: Jerrod Carmichael: Rothaniel
Should Win: Abstain
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