Hello again. It’s Emmy season yet again. I’ll of course have my in depth picks for the main ceremony in the next few days, but I’ll start today with the Creative Arts Emmy ceremony. There are many, many Creative Arts categories. I can pretend I know what I’m talking about for many of them, but I can’t even fake a knowledge of Lighting Design. So, this is an abridged list. It’s fun to do anyway.
If you’ve followed in years before, you may notice I’m not doing my Emmy B-Teams this year. I love making my B-Teams, but thanks to me not realizing the Emmys completely wipe the Nomination Ballots from existence when voting is done,* I can’t get them. I thought I had more time. I will not make that mistake again. Regardless, assume I learned the same lesson as every year: The Emmys have some stupid snubs but they get more right in the nominations than they get wrong. And the voters should find a way to watch more than the same 6-7 shows.
*Seriously, I even reached out to the Emmy site and they wouldn’t give me a copy of the ballots. I figured it was just because I’m some random schmuck. It turns out they refused Vanity Fair’s request too. It’s very dumb.
* Indicates a show that I haven't watched this season.
# Indicates a show I've seen before, not this season.
Outstanding Character Voice-Over Performance
· *F. Murray Abraham (Moon Knight - "The Friendly Type") (Disney+)
· *Julie Andrews (Bridgerton - "Capital R Rake") (Netflix)
· Chadwick Boseman (What If...? - "What If... T'Challa Became A Star-Lord?") (Disney+)
· #Maya Rudolph (Big Mouth - "A Very Big Mouth Christmas") (Netflix)
· Stanley Tucci (Central Park - "Central Dark") (Apple TV+)
· #Jessica Walter (Archer - "London Time") (FX)
· Jeffrey Wright (What If...? - "What If… Ultron Won?") (Disney+)
Julie Andrews failed to win for the much more popular Bridgerton season. Jessica Walter failed to win for her first posthumous nomination for Archer. The big wild cards are the Marvel nominations. Maya Rudolph has the last two winds, and it’s always wise to bet on Emmy voter inertia. I don’t think she’s as secure as she was the last two years – Big Mouth made less of an impression in the last year – but she still has my vote. If not her, a lurking Chadwick Boseman nomination should never be ignored. Emmy voters still remember what happened at the Oscars, right?
Will Win: Maya Rudolph
Could Win: Chadwick Boseman
Should Win: Abstain
Outstanding Animated Program
· Arcane - "When These Walls Come Tumbling Down" (Netflix)
· *Bob's Burgers - "Some Like It Bot Part 1: Eighth Grade Runner" (FOX)
· #Rick And Morty - "Mort Dinner Rick Andre" (Adult Swim)
· *The Simpsons - "Pixelated And Afraid" (FOX)
· What If...? - "What If... Doctor Strange Lost His Heart Instead Of His Hands?" (Disney+)
I never know how they are going to go with this one. Just when you they are done with a show, it comes back. I thought they were done with The Simpsons when it hadn’t won since 2008, then it won in 2019. I thought Bob’s Burgers was a one and done winner in 2014, then it won in 2017. Rick and Morty hasn’t won in consecutive years. And sometimes they throw a curve ball out of nowhere with an Over the Garden Wall (2015) or Primal (2021) win. I think they’ll go back to one of the regulars this year. Technically, Rick and Morty has won for its last two seasons. It just doesn’t air every year, so I’ll stick with that. Otherwise, look for a Bob’s Burgers Movie bump.
Will Win: Ricky & Morty
Could Win: Bob’s Burgers
Should Win: Rick & Morty
Outstanding Short Form Animated Program
· *The Boys Presents: Diabolical - "John And Sun-Hee" (Prime Video)
· Love, Death + Robots - "Jibaro" (Netflix)
· #Robot Chicken - "Happy Russian Deathdog Dolloween 2 U" (Adult Swim)
· Star Wars: Visions - "The Duel" (Disney+)
· When Billie Met Lisa (Disney+)
The Simpsons and Star Wars shorts haven’t fared well here, so I’m striking those. The lack of The Boys support elsewhere isn’t encouraging. Robot Chicken has 3 wins. Love, Death + Robots has 2 wins, although both wins have been more recent than the Robot Chicken wins. So I’ll stick with that.
Will Win: Love, Death + Robots
Could Win: Robot Chicken
Should Win: Abstain
Outstanding Casting For A Comedy Series
· *Abbott Elementary (ABC)
· *Barry (HBO/HBO Max)
· #Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO/HBO Max)
· *Hacks (HBO/HBO Max)
· *Only Murders In The Building (Hulu)
· *Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
No one knows what they are voting on in casting. Combine that with Emmy voters increasingly voting for one show in all categories and I won’t overthink this. The Casting winner has been the Comedy series winner since 2015. I’m not bold enough to pick against Ted Lasso yet. Perhaps I’m wrong though, and the Abbott Elementary love is real.
Will Win: Ted Lasso
Could Win: Abbott Elementary
Should Win: Ted Lasso
Outstanding Casting For A Drama Series
· *Euphoria (HBO/HBO Max)
· *Ozark (Netflix)
· *Severance (Apple TV+)
· *Stranger Things (Netflix)
· *Succession (HBO/HBO Max)
· *Yellowjackets (Showtime)
Drama casting is a little less predictable than Comedy casting. While it does often favor the series winner (2012, 2016, 2019-2021), they’ll sometimes go rogue and reward a promising newcomer (2011, 2014, 2017). While the award is supposed to be more about the way the casting populates the world, not the regular cast, it’s best to think of this as “which cast is the biggest and most impressive?” That’s Succession, which got basically every cast regular nominated and brought in notable guest actors nearly every episode. If not that, it’ll be a new show. Yellowjackets has a major edge over Severance. Severance is about the same characters playing two roles. Less casting variety; more acting variety. Yellowjackets is about casting two actors to play the same role at different ages. That’s something people will credit to casting.
Will Win: Succession
Could Win: Yellowjackets
Should Win: Succession
Outstanding Casting For A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie
· *Dopesick (Hulu)
· *The Dropout (Hulu)
· *Inventing Anna (Netflix)
· *Pam & Tommy (Hulu)
· *The White Lotus (HBO/HBO Max)
Since all these series are new, the “shiny new ensemble” advantage goes away. It’s very safe to just pick the Limited Series winner for this. The only times this goes to something else is when the series frontrunner isn’t very starry. Look to a couple years ago when the small cast of Chernobyl won for series but casting went to the massive When They See Us cast. This immediately drops the list to Dopesick vs. The White Lotus. For that, I’m going with the HBO edge. Also, The White Lotus has more of a feeling of discovery. While no one was actually new, it got to introduce a lot of people to Murray Barlett, confirm the talent of Sydney Sweeney and Alexandra Daddario, and remind people of Jennifer Coolidge. You feel the casting at work more, whereas Dopesick cast a bunch of people to play the roles you’d expect.
Will Win: The White Lotus
Could Win: Dopesick
Should Win: The White Lotus
Outstanding Directing For A Variety Special
· Paul Dugdale (Adele: One Night Only) (CBS)
· Stan Lathan (Dave Chappelle: The Closer) (Netflix)
· Bo Burnham (Jerrod Carmichael: Rothaniel) (HBO/HBO Max)
· Norm Macdonald, Jeff Tomsic (Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special) (Netflix)
· Hamish Hamilton (The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show Starring Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar And 50 Cent) (NBC)
Historically, the directing goes to the concert or live show and the writing goes to the stand-up special. Stand-up has won the last two years though. Norm McDonald’s posthumous nomination is the win here. Emmy complacency got the Dave Chappelle special nominations, but I think he’s a little too toxic to get the win. Bo Burnham won this last year for Inside, but I doubt that carriers over to directing a Jerrod Carmichael special. Somewhat surprisingly, a Super Bowl Halftime show has never won this, so that leaves Adele by default.
Will Win: Paul Dugdale (Adele: One Night Only)
Could Win: Hamish Hamilton (The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show)
Should Win: Abstain
Outstanding Directing For A Documentary/Nonfiction Program
· Andrew Rossi (The Andy Warhol Diaries - "Shadows: Andy & Jed") (Netflix)
· *Peter Jackson (The Beatles: Get Back - "Part 3: Days 17-22") (Disney+)
· Judd Apatow, Michael Bonfiglio (George Carlin's American Dream - "") (HBO/HBO Max)
· Amy Poehler (Lucy And Desi) (Prime Video)
· Ian Denyer (Stanley Tucci: Searching For Italy - "Venice") (CNN)
· *W. Kamau Bell (We Need To Talk About Cosby - "Part 1") (Showtime)
The last few years, they’ve gone for the standalone critical or Oscar favorite. They’ve adapted the rules to cut down on the Oscar overlap though, so the next best strategy is to look to the buzziest program. To me, that makes The Beatles: Get Back the obvious winner. A distant second is We Need to Talk About Cosby. That program confronted a few too many people in the industry with uncomfortable truths though. That’ll hurt it.
Also, just throwing it out there. No one is paying attention to which episodes got nominated. So these are functionally all series nods.
Will Win: The Beatles: Get Back
Could Win: We Need to Talk About Cosby.
Should Win:
Outstanding Directing For A Reality Program
· *Greg Whiteley (Cheer - "Daytona Pt. 2: If The Judges Disagree") (Netflix)
· Nneka Onuorah (Lizzo's Watch Out For The Big Grrrls - "Naked") (Prime Video)
· Aaron Krummel (Queer Eye - "Angel Gets Her Wings") (Netflix)
· Nick Murray (RuPaul's Drag Race - "Moulin Ru: The Rusical") (VH1)
· Ari Boles (Top Chef - "Freedmen's Town") (Bravo)
Cheer Season 1 won, and it’s the most obviously directed of the shows*. I just don’t think the scandal surrounding one of the cast members will hurt it. Other than that, Drag Race has won 2 of the last 3 years.
*And let’s be honest: by “directed” I really mean “edited” but that’s a whole other discussion.
Will Win: Cheer
Could Win: RuPaul’s Drag Race
Should Win: Cheer
Outstanding Main Title Design
· Candy (Hulu)
· Cowboy Bebop (Netflix)
· Foundation (Apple TV+)
· Lisey's Story (Apple TV+)
· *Only Murders In The Building (Hulu)
· Pachinko (Apple TV+)
· *Severance (Apple TV+)
Look. There’s no safe logic to this. It’s not even safe to go with a Series award favorite. Instead, I’m just watching these credits and making a guess. I lean toward emotion and simplicity. Candy’s credits are animated word vomit. Cowboy Bebop is also way too busy. The Severance opening feels like it’s too clever. Pachinko is the clear best to me. Just watching the credits made me regret not watching the show yet. Otherwise, Lisey’s Story’s credits are simple and alluring.
Will Win: Pachinko
Could Win: Lisey’s Story
Should Win: Pachinko
Outstanding Original Music And Lyrics
· *"Elliot's Song" (Euphoria - "All My Life, My Heart Has Yearned For A Thing I Cannot Name") (HBO/HBO Max)
· *"I'm Tired" (Euphoria - "You Who Cannot See, Think Of Those Who Can") (HBO/HBO Max)
· *"Maybe Monica" (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel - "How To Chew Quietly And Influence People") (Prime Video)
· "Corn Puddin'" (Schmigadoon! - "Schmigadoon!") (Apple TV+)
· #"The Forever Now" (This Is Us - "Day Of The Wedding") (NBC)
OK. They truly suck at picking this category. Most years there are surprisingly good options, and almost all the nominations go to forgettable songs from popular shows. That’s how we ended up with this sad assortment. I’ve got to go with the Euphoria songs here since both would mean Zendaya shares the prize. Unfortunately, “Elliot’s Song”, the one everyone laughed at in the finale, is probably winning.
Will Win: “Elliot’s Song” (Euphoria)
Could Win: “I’m Tired” (Euphoria)
Should Win: Abstain
Outstanding Original Main Title Theme Music
· *Loki (Disney+)
· *Only Murders In The Building (Hulu)
· *Severance (Apple TV+)
· *Squid Game (Netflix)
· *The White Lotus (HBO/HBO Max)
Loki is too sparse. Severance and Squid Game are too forgettable and/or unassuming. To me, this is clearly between Only Murders in the Building (more of a catchy earworm) and The White Lotus (more tropical and unnerving). I’ll lean The White Lotus since it does more to prepare me for the show I’m about to watch.
Will Win: The White Lotus
Could Win: Only Murders in the Building
Should Win: The White Lotus
Outstanding Guest Actor In A Comedy Series
· *Jerrod Carmichael (Saturday Night Live - "Host: Jerrod Carmichael") (NBC)
· #Bill Hader (Curb Your Enthusiasm - "Igor, Gregor, & Timor") (HBO/HBO Max)
· *James Lance (Ted Lasso - "Inverting The Pyramid Of Success") (Apple TV+)
· *Nathan Lane (Only Murders In The Building - "The Boy From 6B") (Hulu)
· *Christopher McDonald (Hacks - "The One, The Only") (HBO/HBO Max)
· *Sam Richardson (Ted Lasso - "Midnight Train To Royston") (Apple TV+)
SNL is normally a safe way to go, and there’s no vote splitting with it this year. I love Jerrod Carmichael, but he’d be the least famous SNL host to win this by a significant amount. Even in its heyday, Curb never won this. Neither Ted Lasso performance stands out enough for me. Nathan Lane and Christopher McDonald both have the benefit of feeling like series regulars on their shows. Lane in particular, so I’ll go with him.
Will Win: Nathan Lane
Could Win: Christopher McDonald
Should Win: Jerrod Carmichael
Outstanding Guest Actor In A Drama Series
· *Adrien Brody (Succession - "Lion In The Meadow") (HBO/HBO Max)
· *James Cromwell (Succession - "Retired Janitors Of Idaho") (HBO/HBO Max)
· *Colman Domingo (Euphoria - "Ruminations: Big And Little Bullys") (HBO/HBO Max)
· *Arian Moayed (Succession - "Retired Janitors Of Idaho") (HBO/HBO Max)
· *Tom Pelphrey (Ozark - "You're The Boss") (Netflix)
· *Alexander Skarsgård (Succession - "All The Bells Say") (HBO/HBO Max)
If I’m playing strategically, I’d say the Succession actors cancel each other out and go with Colman Domingo’s mentor role in an ascendent season of Euphoria. That could happen, but I think Adrien Brody made too strong of an impression in his episode. He’s the one from Succession who I remember his performance the clearest. Anyway, check the receipts; guest acting categories routinely make no sense if you’ve actually watched all the shows.
Will Win: Adrien Brody
Could Win: Colman Domingo
Should Win: Colman Domingo
Outstanding Guest Actress In A Comedy Series
· *Jane Adams (Hacks - "The Click") (HBO/HBO Max)
· *Harriet Sansom Harris (Hacks - "Retired") (HBO/HBO Max)
· *Jane Lynch (Only Murders In The Building - "Double Time") (Hulu)
· *Laurie Metcalf (Hacks - "Trust The Process") (HBO/HBO Max)
· *Kaitlin Olson (Hacks - "There Will Be Blood") (HBO/HBO Max)
· *Harriet Walter (Ted Lasso - "The Signal") (Apple TV+)
My rule of thumb is that vote splitting only matters if there isn’t a clear favorite. In the case of the 4 Hacks guest actresses, none stick out, so I can’t pick any of them with confidence. This feels like an easy Jane Lynch win to me. It’s a funny role that’s even a sight gag. She’s won this award and other Emmys before, so we know voters like her. If it is just a Hacks love fest though, Harriet Sansom Harris has the best character arc in her episode.
Will Win: Jane Lynch
Could Win: Harriet Sansom Harris
Should Win: Jane Lynch
Outstanding Guest Actress In A Drama Series
· *Hope Davis (Succession - "Retired Janitors Of Idaho") (HBO/HBO Max)
· *Marcia Gay Harden (The Morning Show - "Testimony") (Apple TV+)
· *Martha Kelly (Euphoria - "Stand Still Like The Hummingbird") (HBO/HBO Max)
· *Sanaa Lathan (Succession - "What It Takes") (HBO/HBO Max)
· *Harriet Walter (Succession - "Chiantishire") (HBO/HBO Max)
· *Lee You-mi (Squid Game - "Gganbu") (Netflix)
The trick to picking this award is that it’s dumb. Very, very dumb. Remember that meaningless scene at the beginning of a Crown episode with Claire Foy in Season 4? That won her this Emmy last year. A few years back, Margo Martindale won twice for The Americans, including one year where it was just a short scene with her sitting at a diner. Sure, there are times when a deserving winner happens like Alexis Bledel for the first season of The Handmaid’s Tale, but that’s not going to help to pick it most years. The biggest trend I’ve found is if the person feels like a season regular. Claire Foy won after being the lead on The Crown in previous seasons. Cherry Jones on Succession had a memorable pair of episodes. Samara Wiley and Alexis Bledel phased in and out of being regulars on The Handmaid’s Tale around their wins. Margo Martindale was a series regular on the first season of The Americans before her two Guest Actress wins for it.
That makes Martha Kelly my frontrunner. I’m very surprised to realize she was only in less than half of the Euphoria episodes. She made such an indelible mark. If not her, then I’m looking to Marcia Gay Harden who was in 3 episodes of The Morning Show after being in 6 in the first season. That’s nearly half the episodes of the series.
Will Win: Martha Kelly
Could Win: Marcia Gay Harden
Should Win: Martha Kelly
Outstanding Actor In A Short Form Comedy Or Drama Series
· Anthony A. Anderson (Anacostia) (YouTube)
· Bill Burr (Immoral Compass) (The Roku Channel)
· Brendan Gleeson (State Of The Union) (SundanceTV)
· Tim Robinson (I Think You Should Leave With Tim Robinson) (Netflix)
· Ikechukwu Ufomadu (Words With Ike (Cake)) (FX)
It’s a new world after Quibi snatched up the last two of these. It’s time to make room for a new network’s content to win. Chris O’Dowd won for State of the Union in 2019. I might as well pick Brendan Gleeson to do it this time. I don’t know how much Twitter meme-ing should be trusted. If it is an indication of voter tendency though, Tim Robinson is the easy winner as the mastermind of niche sensation I Think You Should Leave with Tim Robinson.
Will Win: Brendan Gleeson
Could Win: Tim Robinson
Should Win: Abstain
Outstanding Actress In A Short Form Comedy Or Drama Series
· Jacinte Blankenship (Intersection) (YouTube)
· Patricia Clarkson (State Of The Union) (SundanceTV)
· Desi Lydic (Desi Lydic Foxsplains) (YouTube)
· Rhea Seehorn (Cooper's Bar) (YouTube)
· Sydnee Washington (Bridesman) (YouTube)
I’ll use a similar logic as Guest Actor and go with Patricia Clarkson for State of the Union after Rosamund Pike won for the series in 2019. With no other strong contenders, I could see Rhea Seehorn getting this consolation prize since a Better Call Saul win is still a tall [overdue] order.
Will Win: Patricia Clarkson
Could Win: Rhea Seehorn
Should Win: Abstain
Outstanding Narrator
· Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (Black Patriots: Heroes Of The Civil War) (HISTORY)
· David Attenborough (The Mating Game - "In Plain Sight") (Discovery+)
· *W. Kamau Bell (We Need To Talk About Cosby - "Part 1") (Showtime)
· Lupita Nyong'o (Serengeti II - "Intrigue") (Discovery+)
· Barack Obama (Our Great National Parks - "A World Of Wonder") (Netflix)
Look, David Attenborough has won this 3 of the last 4 years. He should be the go-to pick, but are you telling me a voting body like the Television Academy is going to pick against Barack Obama? For what it’s worth, W. Kamau Bell brought a welcome personal touch to We Need to Talk About Cosby.
Will Win: Barack Obama
Could Win: David Attenborough
Should Win: W. Kamau Bell
Outstanding Host For A Reality Or Competition Program
· Bobby Berk, Karamo Brown, Tan France, Antoni Porowski, Jonathan Van Ness (Queer Eye) (Netflix)
· Nicole Byer (Nailed It!) (Netflix)
· Mark Cuban, Barbara Corcoran, Lori Greiner, Robert Herjavec, Daymond John, Kevin O'Leary (Shark Tank) (ABC)
· Padma Lakshmi (Top Chef) (Bravo)
· Amy Poehler, Nick Offerman (Making It) (NBC)
· RuPaul (RuPaul's Drag Race) (VH1)
RuPaul has won the last *checks notes* 5 years and Drag Race is *checks notes* still the clear series favorite. There’s always a chance the Queer Eye guys could overtake, but it feels like 2020 was the year that was going to happen if it ever was.
Will Win: RuPaul
Could Win: Bobby Berk, Karamo Brown, Tan France, Antoni Porowski, Jonathan Van Ness
Should Win: Abstain
Outstanding Variety Special (Live)
· The 64th Annual Grammy Awards (CBS)
· Live In Front Of A Studio Audience: The Facts Of Life And Diff'rent Strokes (ABC)
· *The Oscars (ABC)
· The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show Starring Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar And 50 Cent (NBC)
· The Tony Awards Present: Broadway's Back! (CBS)
Halftime shows never win. The Oscars and Grammys haven’t for quite a while. Live in Front of a Studio Audience won the last two it was eligible for, so it feels like the favorite. The Tonys have won 6 of the last 12 years, but I don’t know if Broadway’s Back! will get the same consideration.
Will Win: Live In Front Of A Studio Audience: The Facts Of Life And Diff'rent Strokes Could Win: The Tony Awards Present: Broadway's Back!
Should Win: Abstain
Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)
· Adele: One Night Only (CBS)
· Dave Chappelle: The Closer (Netflix)
· Harry Potter 20th Anniversary: Return To Hogwarts (HBO/HBO Max)
· Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special (Netflix)
· One Last Time: An Evening With Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga (CBS)
A Chapelle special won in 2020 and 2018, but I think the larger voting body has turned on him too much to actually win. The West Wing and Friends reunions last year couldn’t win, so I have little faith in the Harry Potter one this year. There isn’t a lot of precedent to work off for these nominees, so, on a hunch, I’ll go with Adele, although it’s worth noting that a Tony Bennett special did win this in 2007.
Will Win: Adele: One Night Only
Could Win: One Last Time: An Evening With Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga
Should Win: Abstain
Outstanding Short Form Comedy, Drama Or Variety Series
· Carpool Karaoke: The Series (Apple TV+)
· I Think You Should Leave With Tim Robinson (Netflix)
· Late Night With Seth Meyers CORRECTIONS (YouTube)
· The Randy Rainbow Show (YouTube)
· Stephen Colbert Presents Tooning Out The News (Paramount+)
People fucking love Carpool Karaoke. This series won last year. Assorted Late Late Show specials have won a bunch. Until I have a reason to pick otherwise, I’m sticking with that. As I did mention with Tim Robinson though, there’s a portion of the internet that is obsessed with I Think You Should Leave. Still feels too niche to me, but I’ve been wrong many times before.
Will Win: Carpool Karaoke: The Series
Could Win: I Think You Should Leave
Should Win: Abstain
Outstanding Short Form Nonfiction Or Reality Series
· Between The Scenes - The Daily Show (YouTube)
· Full Frontal With Samantha Bee Presents: Once Upon A Time In Late Night (TBS)
· RuPaul's Drag Race Whatcha Packin' With Michelle Visage (VH1)
· Saturday Night Live Presents: Stories From The Show (NBC)
· Top Chef: Last Chance Kitchen (Bravo)
Weirdly, the branded stuff doesn’t actually do that well here, so the fact that all of these nominees are tied to a series doesn’t really help. Full Frontal, The Daily Show, Top Chef, and Drag Race have all lost versions of this award before, so I guess I’ll go with SNL as the “new” blood. Otherwise, Top Chef seems dry enough to win.
Will Win: Saturday Night Live Presents: Stories From The Show
Could Win: Top Chef: Last Chance Kitchen
Should Win: Abstain
Outstanding Documentary Or Nonfiction Special
· Controlling Britney Spears (New York Times Presents) (FX)
· George Carlin's American Dream (HBO/HBO Max)
· Lucy And Desi (Prime Video)
· *The Tinder Swindler (Netflix)
· We Feed People (Disney+)
Controlling Britney Spears actually got people talking, so that feels like the clear winner to me. If not that, the Zen Diaries of Garry Shandling win in 2018 has me thinking George Carlin’s American Dream has some juice.
Will Win: Controlling Britney Spears
Could Win: George Carlin's American Dream
Should Win: Abstain
Outstanding Documentary Or Nonfiction Series
· The Andy Warhol Diaries (Netflix)
· *The Beatles: Get Back (Disney+)
· jeen-yuhs: A Kanye Trilogy (Netflix)
· 100 Foot Wave (HBO/HBO Max)
· *We Need To Talk About Cosby (Showtime)
Secrets of the Whales won last year, which tells me that unless something was a sensation like The Jinx or Making a Murderer, voters will default to whatever asks the least of them on here. Get Back was both a minor sensation and pain free. That feels like an obvious pick. If not that, 100 Foot Wave has the wow factor and empty calories. I’d love is We Need to Talk About Cosby get more consideration, although I too am a sucker for Peter Jackson’s passion project.
Will Win: The Beatles: Get Back
Could Win: 100 Foot Wave
Should Win: The Beatles: Get Back
Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series Or Special
· My Next Guest Needs No Introduction With David Letterman (Netflix)
· *The Problem With Jon Stewart (Apple TV+)
· Stanley Tucci: Searching For Italy (CNN)
· Vice (Showtime)
· The World According To Jeff Goldblum (Disney+)
Tucci won last year. Vice, Letterman, and Goldblum have all lost the last couple years. There’s a chance Jon Stewart’s TV return will see a Daily Show-esque domination, but I haven’t heard anyone talk about The Problem since it premiered.
Will Win: Stanley Tucci: Searching For Italy
Could Win: The Problem With Jon Stewart
Should Win: Abstain
Exceptional Merit In Documentary Filmmaking
· Changing The Game (Hulu)
· Frederick Douglass: In Five Speeches (HBO/HBO Max)
· When Claude Got Shot (PBS)
It’s a weak metric, but I’m just going to go with When Claude Got Shot, because it’s the only nominee that even has a Wikipedia page. Then HBO gives Frederick Douglass the slight edge.
Will Win: When Claude Got Shot
Could Win: Frederick Douglass: In Five Speeches
Should Win: Abstain
Outstanding Structured Reality Program
· Antiques Roadshow (PBS)
· Fixer Upper: Welcome Home (Magnolia Network)
· Love Is Blind (Netflix)
· Queer Eye (Netflix)
· Shark Tank (ABC)
I feel the need to point this out every year. Antiques Roadshow has collected 19 winless nominations over the years, including consecutive nominations since 2005. Can voters please collude just one year to give it a win?
Anyway, Queer Eye has the last 4 wins. Shark Tank had the last 4 before that. Love Is Blind doesn’t excite me enough to expect it to unseat the king.
Will Win: Queer Eye
Could Win: Shark Tank
Should Win: Abstain
Outstanding Unstructured Reality Program
· Below Deck Mediterranean (Bravo)
· *Cheer (Netflix)
· Love On The Spectrum U.S. (Netflix)
· RuPaul's Drag Race Untucked (VH1)
· Selling Sunset (Netflix)
Untucked only finally won last year with Cheer (winner in 2020) taking a break and United Shades of America (winner 2017-2019) ended. Expect Cheer to reclaim the trophy.
Will Win: Cheer
Could Win: RuPaul's Drag Race Untucked
Should Win: Cheer
Outstanding Stunt Coordination For A Comedy Series Or Variety Program
· *Barry (HBO/HBO Max)
· Cobra Kai (Netflix)
· *Hawkeye (Disney+)
· Peacemaker (HBO/HBO Max)
· The Righteous Gemstones (HBO/HBO Max)
· *What We Do In The Shadows (FX)
They’ve been overhauling the Stunt Categories lately, so it’s hard for me to use much precedent here. I suspect this is between Hawkeye, Peacemaker, Cobra Kai, and Barry. I’m going on a limb here. Barry had a few crazy ambitious stunts this season. That freeway chase and shootout was something special. If that’s still in voters’ minds, it could sneak a win here. Calling Hawkeye a comedy is a little questionable but the size and dependence on stunts puts it ahead of the rest.
Will Win: Barry
Could Win: Hawkeye
Should Win: Barry
Outstanding Stunt Coordination For A Drama Series, Limited Or Anthology
· #The Blacklist (NBC)
· *The Book Of Boba Fett (Disney+)
· *Moon Knight (Disney+)
· 9-1-1: Lone Star (FOX)
· *Stranger Things (Netflix)
· The Witcher (Netflix)
The Mandalorian has the last two wins. While The Book Of Boba Fett wasn’t as well received overall, the stunt work on it was just as impeccable. Besides, the rest of the field isn’t all that impressive. Again, I think the Marvel size and scope helps Moon Knight as the next most likely winner.
Will Win: The Book of Boba Fett
Could Win: Moon Knight
Should Win: The Book of Baba Fett
Outstanding Stunt Performance
· *Barry - "710N" (HBO/HBO Max)
· #The Blacklist - "Between Sleep And Awake" (NBC)
· *Hawkeye - "Echoes" (Disney+)
· *Moon Knight - "Gods And Monsters" (Disney+)
· *Squid Game - "Stick To The Team" (Netflix)
· *Stranger Things - "Chapter Four: Dear Billy" (Netflix)
This is only the second year of this category. I don’t expect voters to have a clear idea what it means (not like I do either), so expect it to go the same way as either of the Stunt Coordination winners. And The Book of Boba Fett isn’t nominated here. That makes this easy.
Will Win: Barry
Could Win: Squid Game
Should Win: Barry
Outstanding Writing For A Variety Special
· Ali Wong: Don Wong (Netflix)
· The Daily Show With Trevor Noah Presents: Jordan Klepper Fingers The Globe - Hungary For Democracy (Comedy Central)
· Jerrod Carmichael: Rothaniel (HBO/HBO Max)
· Nicole Byer: BBW (Big Beautiful Weirdo) (Netflix)
· Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special (Netflix)
9 of the last 10 wins went to a stand-up special. Often it’s the biggest name that wins. Rothaniel actually had the most buzz of any of these. However, while I often point out that the TV academy isn’t sentimental with their votes, I can absolutely see Nothing Special getting a win.
Will Win: Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special
Could Win: Jerrod Carmichael: Rothaniel
Should Win: Abstain
Outstanding Writing For A Nonfiction Program
· The Andy Warhol Diaries - "Shadows: Andy & Jed" (Netflix)
· How To With John Wilson - "How To Appreciate Wine" (HBO/HBO Max)
· Lucy And Desi (Prime Video)
· *The Problem With Jon Stewart - "The Economy" (Apple TV+)
· *The Tinder Swindler (Netflix)
I think it’s easiest to go with the one people recognize from Netflix.
Will Win: The Tinder Swindler
Could Win: The Andy Warhol Diaries - "Shadows: Andy & Jed"
Should Win: NOT The Tinder Swindler
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