Welcome to a very scaled down version of my Oscar predictions. The last several years, I've had a lot of fanfare leading up to the Oscars. I do thorough examinations of each category, compare results of precursor awards, and make my predictions. They aren't the most accurate predictions, but the fun for me is noticing the trends and tracking the season.
As you know, 2020 was a little weird. The Oscar calendar blew up. Nothing is happening when it's supposed to, and as a result, I won't be going through it with the same detail. I wasn't able to set up the time to type everything up like I normally do. More importantly, this Oscar season has been done like no other, so I'm not sure how valuable my normal evaluation will be. I still want to document my picks and reasoning though.
Without further ado, here we go.
* - Indicates a movie I've seen.
(In order from most to least likely to win)
Best Live-Action Short
1. *Feeling Through
2. *Two Distant Strangers
3. *The Present
4. *The Letter Room
5. *White Eye
I need to repeat this so much as possible. Predicting the shorts is a crapshoot. The rule of thumb in Live-Action shorts is to pick the one with the most famous people (The Neighbor's Window - 2019, Skin - 2018) or the sweetest ending (Sing - 2016, Stutterer - 2015). The most depressing option isn't as successful as people sometimes think. By the famous person logic, I should probably pick The Letter Room with Oscar Isaac. There's something skeevy about that though that I don't think people will respond to. The Present has the nice surprise happy ending. So, I may be underestimating that one. White Eye is outright depressing, so I don't see that one winning. Two Distant Strangers has a social message that Oscar voters could eat up. And it's got bigger names producing it (Not the ones who would be accepting the award though). I also found Two Distant Strangers repugnant at times, so I'm kind of picking against it to will it out of a win. That leaves me with Feeling Through. It's a very sweet movie that hints at a great message without being too message-y. It feels like the easiest one to pick. Again though, it's really hard to figure most of the short awards out.
Best Animated Short
1. *Opera
2. *If Anything Happens I Love You
3. *Burrow
4. *Yes-People
5. *Genius Loci
I'm going a little weird with this one. If Anything Happens I Love You is the favorite. That one is so depressing though. The most depressing movie hasn't won this in several years. Even though Netflix is pushing that one, I think a lot of voters will look at it as "I know I should pick If Anything Happens I Love You, but I'm going to pick ____ instead". The little punditry I've heard is people saying they actually like Opera as an oddball pick. If enough people think it's an oddball pick, then it wins. Burrow should never be counted out with the Pixar connection. I really just don't see Yes People or Genius Loci winning. Who really knows though?
Best Documentary Short
1. *A Concerto Is a Conversation
2. *A Love Song for Latasha
3. *Colette
4. *Do Not Split
5. *Hunger Ward
I may have mentioned this before. Picking the short categories are a fool's errand. A Concerto is a Conversation is generally appealing and even has an Oscar clip in it. That's Academy catnip. A Love Song for Latasha touches on BLM issues. I'm just not convinced that voters want to go for something that depressing. Colette seems bait-ier for a previous generation with the Holocaust of it all. Do Not Split is actually my favorite of them. I hope Oscar voters agree, but I think the way the ending peters out won't work for a lot of people. And, Hunger Ward is just so fucking brutal. Like, seriously, so brutal. Don't watch it. It can only ruin your day. Not to say it's bad. Just topically depressing. If it wins, then next year, the documentary shorts are all going to be 20 minutes of people kicking puppies.
Best Documentary Feature
1. *My Octopus Teacher
2. *Crip Camp
3. *Time
4. Collective
5. The Mole Agent
Other than losing the DGA Award to a film not nominated by the Academy, My Octopus Teacher has swept through the precursors pretty easily. It's short and weirdly emotional. It feels like the easy winner, even though there isn't a long history of nature docs winning. Crip Camp feels like the most likely challenger due to being produced by the Obamas. Maybe Oscar voters really are that lazy. Time ties into BLM issues, and from everything I hear, it's quite good. There really isn't a long history here of Oscar voters getting clever though. Collective has the double nomination, but that didn't help Honeyland last year. I have no idea what The Mole Agent is and I think the voters will feel the same way.
Best Production Design
1. *Mank
2. *The Father
3. News of the World
4. *Tenet
5. *Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
This is looking like the easiest place to award something to Mank which is the nominations leader for the Oscars. It's managed to win both the BAFTA and Art Director's Guild Awards. That's no guarantee of Oscar victory. In the last 20 years Gladiator, Inception, and The Favourite have won both precursor awards and lost the Oscar. But it's still good reason to call it the favorite for the Oscar. If anything is lurking for the upset, look to The Father, which is the easiest movie for Oscar voters to identify production design, the way it repurposes the same apartment for numerous purposes throughout the film. I sure am worried about it not even getting an ADG nomination though. After those two, News of the World is the only other movie to be nominated for both the BAFTA and ADG awards. Tenet did win the Fantasy Production Design award from the ADG. And Ma Rainey's Black Bottom has a distinct and loud 1920s look. It's hard to see how any of those three have enough momentum to overtake Mank or The Father.
Best Visual Effects
1. *Tenet
2. *Mulan
3. *The Midnight Sky
4. Love and Monsters
5. *The One and Only Ivan
No category was more obviously affected by the lack of blockbuster releases this year. Nearly every expensive, effects-heavy film held off until the movie theaters could open back up. That's how we end up with something like The One and Only Ivan being remembered by voters for the award. When there's a Best Picture nominee here, you can normally pencil that in as the winner, but none are nominated this year. There's no consensus built with the precursors either this year. So, I'll just go with the highest profile movie. Tenet is the biggest blockbuster released last year. Christopher Nolan movies have won this award before (Interstellar, Inception). And Tenet won the BAFTA award. After that, Mulan did pretty well with the Visual Effects Society awards and is the next biggest effects movie. Had The Midnight Sky been more of an Oscar player in other categories, I would give it better odds here. Love and Monsters and The One and Only Ivan are in the "just happy to be nominated" group.
Best Sound
1. *Sound of Metal
2. *Soul
3. *Greyhound
4. *Mank
5. News of the World
It's a little hard to predict this since it's the first year of the Sound Editing and Sound Mixing categories getting lumped into a single category. I figure the result will be that voters will have even less incentive to overthink this. Sound of Metal is very defined by its use of sound. It calls attention to it repeatedly. It also won the award from both BAFTA and the Cinema Audio Society (Sound Mixers guild). This is probably one of the biggest locks of the night. I'm a tad concern by Sound of Metal winning 0 Golden Reels (the Sound Editors Guild awards), but Oscar voters have never been that beholden to these guilds. I guess Soul is the next most likely to win, given how much the movie is about music. Greyhound is a war movie, which do pretty well with the sound awards. I think it will be very hurt by the fact that no one saw it in a theater where they could feel the sound. Mank has a lot of nominations, which doesn't hurt. News of the World is certainly happy to be nominated.
Best Costume Design
1. *Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. *Mank
3. *Mulan
4. *Emma
5. Pinocchio
This award isn't the easiest to predict but it looks obvious in hindsight. Winning all the precursors doesn't necessarily mean it'll win the Oscar if there's something with more obvious costuming out there. Or maybe they're just a tech award goliath eating everything up. Take 2018 for example. The Favourite won the BAFTA and Period Costume award from the Costume Designers Guild. It seemed like the obvious favorite for an award that loves fancy dresses. It lost to Black Panther though, which had momentum, broad support, and even a good narrative for the actual person nominated for the award. I don't think this year has as much room for surprise. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom won both the BAFTA and Costume Designer's Guild award for Period Costume. It has some of the loudest, world-setting clothing in it. The film even has some extra juice for its perceived Best Picture snub. Mank has a decently distinctive look too. It's the leader in overall nominations. I think voters will credit the cinematography and production design more for the look of the movie, but I think there's room for Mank to win here. I'm hesitant to count Mulan out entirely. Ever since that bizarre costume win for Fantastic Beasts for 2016, I look for some Fantasy Costume Design to sneak in. And, Mulan at least won the Costume Designers Guild award for Fantasy Costuming. Fantastic Beasts lost that award, making Mulan even better credentialed for an upset. Then again, 2016 was a weak year for the category. After all, La La Land was considered the favorite and a contemporary film hasn't won for Costume Design this century. Hell, only three nominees (out of 100) for the CDG Contemporary Costume Design award have even been nominated for the Costume Oscar. So yeah. Weak year in 2016. Emma is the movie most defined by its costuming, so perhaps I'm underestimating its chances. Really, Pinocchio, which no one even knew existed before Oscar morning, is the only one I give 0% chance to win.
Best Makeup & Hair-styling
1. *Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. *Hillbilly Elegy
3. *Emma
4. *Mank
5. Pinocchio
This isn't a good one to look for surprises. Oscar voters are simple people here. Find a single prominent actor making a transformation on screen and you can wrap up the award for the movie. Remember how Bombshell won this last year with the first promo shot released of the movie? How about Vice getting it for that first trailer? Darkest Hour the year before. The only times it doesn't seem obvious is when there's not a prominent transformation in any of the roles (Hi, Suicide Squad win in 2016). Along with winning the BATFA Award, and Makeup and Hairstyling Guild awards for both Makeup and Hairstyling, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom has Viola Davis putting on some weight and always looking overheated in the movie. Done. Deliver it to Ma Rainey's door now. If Hillbilly Elegy was a better received film, Glen Close's makeup in particular could've helped it stand a good chance here. I think Emma and Mank have the problem where people just fold the makeup and hairstyling in it into the costuming. And, again, Pinocchio didn't even exist until Oscar morning.
Best Animation Feature
1. *Soul
2. *Wolfwalkers
3. *Onward
4. *Over the Moon
5. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
The Pixar dominance isn't slowing down this year. Soul won all the major precursors and nothing this dominant has ever failed to win the Oscar. If contrarian-minded critics get their way, the perfectly nice Wolfwalkers is the upset pick. It needed more success in the precursors though. If we think that voters are just crazy to vote for anything Pixar, Onward IS Pixar too. Hard to see how it passes Soul though. Over the Moon and A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon are this year's sacrificial lambs to fill out the category.
Best International Film
1. *Another Round
2. Quo Vadis, Aida?
3. Collective
4. Better Days
5. The Man Who Sold His Skin
Another Round got a Director nomination. That locks this up as far as I'm concerned. Quo Vadis, Aida? has also been hanging around all season. Collective did do the same thing as Honeyland last year, getting an International Film and Documentary Feature nomination. That certainly can't hurt it. I've hardly heard a thing about Better Days and The Man Who Sold His Skin, so I'm counting them out. Another Round has all the momentum though.
Best Original Song
1. *"Speak Now" form One Night In Miami
2. "Io si (Seen)" from The Life Ahead
3. *"Husavik" for Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Sage
4. *"Fight for You" from Judas and the Black Messiah
5. *"Hear My Voice" for The Trial of the Chicago 7
"Speak Now" has some Selma vibes. One Night In Miami didn't get the nomination haul it looked like it might get at one point in the season. This could be a symbolic win to show larger support. The award would even be shared with Leslie Odom Jr. If not that, maybe this is finally the year for Diane Warren, on her 12th nomination and no wins yet. So, "Io si (Seen)" has a decent chance. "Husavik" is the sentimental choice. But ask yourself, does it really feel like Oscar voters are in any hurry to give a win to a Will Ferrell comedy? Judas and the Black Messiah and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are both Best Picture nominees. That never really matters for this award though.
Best Original Score
1. *Soul
2. *Mank
3. News of the World
4. *Minari
5. *Da 5 Bloods
Soul has the BAFTA and Golden Globe awards. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross have won before. They're co-nominated with Jon Baptiste which gives them a little more credibility for the music of this score. That makes it the easy favorite. Mank and News of the World also got nominations from the Golden Globes and BAFTA, so that helps. Minari has a BAFTA nomination and really good Best Picture odds. That can't hurt it. Da 5 Bloods severely underperformed in the nominations, and it doesn't seem like people are rallying around it anymore.
Best Cinematography
1. *Mank
2. *Nomadland
3. *The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. *Judas and the Black Messiah
5. News of the World
This one is a toss-up. Mank won the Cinematographers Guild award. Nomadland won the BAFTA award. I've noticed a trend of Oscar voters spreading the wealth lately though. This feels like an easy place to make sure Mank walks away with something, and voters get to feel very worldly picking a black and white movie here. Nomadland shoots the hell out of the American West though. It wouldn't be a bad winner either. I'm not sure I see a path for The Trial of the Chicago 7, Judas and the Black Messiah, and News of the World to win.
Best Film Editing
1. *Sound of Metal
2. *The Father
3. *The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. *Nomadland
5. *Promising Young Woman
There's a decent correlation between the Sound and Film Editing awards, so I'll go with Sound of Metal, which won the BAFTA awards for Film Editing and Sound. I think The Father's editing will be credited more to its screenplay and production design, but a film editing win wouldn't be undeserved. The Trial of the Chicago 7 beat Nomadland and Sound of Metal for the Film Editors Guild Award, which was quite a surprise. It reminds me a bit of 2018, when Bohemian Rhapsody winning the guild award preluded an Oscar win. So don't count it out. As always, the Best Picture favorite lurks wherever it's nominated, so look out for Nomadland too. The only one I can't see winning is Promising Young Woman. The editing just isn't where the strength is in that movie.
Best Original Screenplay
1. *Promising Young Woman
2. *Minari
3. *The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. *Sound of Metal
5. *Judas and the Black Messiah
The screenplay categories are a little tougher than normal this year. Due to a change in the BAFTA nominations system, not as many of the same movies are nominated for their screenplay awards. The WGA Awards, with the exception of an odd 2018, are extremely good predictors of who will win the Oscar. Except, the WGA has restricted eligibility, so sometimes Oscar nominated screenplays aren't eligible for the WGA award. So, where does that leave this race? Promising Young Woman won the WGA and BAFTA awards. It's also one of the buzzier movies in the Oscar conversation this year. I worry it might be fading a bit lately, but I'll go ahead keep it as my top pick. Minari wasn't eligible for the WGA award, making it a wildcard in the race. I think Minari has a real shot at Best Picture, and I'd think it would need to win this award to win Best Picture. So, I'll call it the most likely upset due to that potential correlation. The Trial of the Chicago 7 won the Golden Globe and Aaron Sorkin is one of the most decorated Hollywood scribes out there. I have trouble seeing how, in a year decorated so much for the diversity of the nominees, the Academy could go and give this to Sorkin. Sound of Metal has a lot of technical award potential. Generally though, that kind of momentum doesn't carry up to the screenplay categories. The onscreen talent is getting all the attention for Judas and the Black Messiah.
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. *The Father
2. *Nomadland
3. *Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
4. *One Night in Miami
5. *The White Tiger
Had The Father lost the BAFTA Award (it didn't), I would've worried more. If even the Brits don't award it, that's a red flag. It wasn't eligible for the WGA award, so I can't pull much from that. The Father got a lot of nominations overall, so there's broad support. It's also a very showy screenplay. It's hard to watch the movie and not be impressed by how it's organized. Nomadland also wasn't eligible for the WGA award, so it's also an unknown to some extent. Chloe Zhao is also nominated for director which she's likely to win. I absolutely think Nomadland is the frontrunner for Best Picture, which always makes a screenplay win a possibility. I just think the screenplay isn't what people are hurrying to award it for. The first Borat movie was also nominated and this movie did win the WGA award against all the eligible Oscar nominees. So, it's possible it could win. I just hate the idea of Borat movies winning anything. One Night and Miami and The White Tiger don't have any juice for this. I'm really thinking this is a two-movie race at the top, and even that I'm not convinced is that close.
Best Supporting Actor
1. *Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
2. *Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
3. *Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)
4. *Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
5. *Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Kaluuya has won all the precursors. He looks like the surest acting winner this year. The only thing that could potentially hurt him is a vote split with co-star Lakeith Stanfield. That seems unlikely though. In that situation, Sacha Baron Cohen seems like the most likely one to slide in. Leslie Odom Jr. has been nominated by everyone too. Paul Raci was a critical darling earlier in the season but hasn't won much since. Lakeith Stanfield has a simple problem. Who is picking him over Kaluuya? That's not to say he's bad. It's just not the electric performance in the film.
Best Supporting Actress
1. *Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)
2. *Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)
3. *Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
4.* Amanda Seyfried (Mank)
5. *Olivia Colman (The Father)
One of the two most intriguing awards of the night (with Best Lead Actress). There's a good reason to pick each nominee. They should all be practicing speeches just in case. Unlike most categories, I wouldn't be surprised if any of them win. The BAFTAs did set up a frontrunner though. Youn Yuh-jung won the BAFTA and SAG awards. That make her the clear betting favorite. I have definitely said the words "Glen Close will win on her next nomination" at some point after she lost for The Wife. Even though Hillbilly Elegy was critically reviled, I just can't help but wonder if the desire to finally get Glen Close an Oscar could outweigh the quality of the performance and film. I mean, remember how Meryl Streep got her third Oscar? Maria Bakalova has stuck around all awards season, even when people insisted that she'd go away. It really is a more impressive performance than you'd expect from a supporting character in a Borat movie. When Mank first came out, I was sure Amanda Seyfried would be the one to beat here. I remain surprised that she's had so little success with the precursors. The fact that she wasn't even nominated for the SAG is really alarming. And, people just plain love Olivia Colman.
Best Lead Actor
1. *Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
2. *Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
3. *Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
4. *Steven Yeun (Minari)
5. *Gary Oldman (Mank)
This is the strongest Best Actor field in a long time. There are several deserving winners here. Chadwick Boseman certainly feels like he's wrapped this up. Winning the SAG and Golden Globe awards helps confirm it. Anthony Hopkins has a little juice after the BAFTA win. I think that has to do mostly with which side of the Atlantic the voting bodies are on. The Father is a very British movie. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom is very American. Riz Ahmed is a critical favorite, and Sound of Metal got way more Oscar attention than anyone expected. Minari has been coming on strong late, so Yeun winning as part of a dominant night wouldn't be crazy. Even though Mank has the most overall nominations, Oldman won pretty recently. I really don't see him getting a win here.
Best Lead Actress
1. *Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
2. *Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
3. *Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
4. *Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
5. *Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Like Supporting Actress, everyone nominated for Lead Actress has a pretty strong case. There is no surprise winner here. That said, I feel like it's down to a 2-person race. Viola Davis won the SAG Award, which is normally the best indicator of where the Oscar is going. She has five SAG wins though for TV and film roles. Clearly SAG likes her a lot. And one of those SAG wins was for The Help in 2011, when she went on to lose the Oscar. So maybe the SAG win isn't a guarantee. And it's her only major precursor win. I want to pull the trigger and pick Carey Mulligan to win. Her only major precursor win is a Critics Choice Award, and that's not a greatly predictive group. She's been all over the season though. Promising Young Woman got a slew of major nominations. Mulligan helped her visibility with a great SNL hosting stint. I'm rooting for her to win, so I hope I'm not blinding myself about her odds. I think it's her or Davis though. Those are the best awards narrative going. Frances McDormand is the heart and soul of the Best Picture favorite. She's beloved by basically everyone in the industry. In a vacuum, she's the most likely winner, but she just got her second Oscar a couple years ago. Typically, the Academy is cautious about giving people their third awards. Remember how long it took Meryl to get the third? Andra Day won the Golden Globe against the exact same field. That is such a non-representative voting body though. I'm not sure how indicative that actually is. Vanessa Kirby hasn't missed a single nomination leading up to this. Since she hasn't won any of the precursors, I don't think she'll finally pull through with the Academy.
Best Director
1. *Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
2. *Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
3. *Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
4. *David Fincher (Mank)
5. *Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)
Chloe Zhao has won everything leading up to this and the Academy is anxious to award Best Director to a female director for only the second time ever. This is about as locked up as it gets. Chung and Fennell also scratch the diversity itch, I guess. If there was any chance that Academy members don't vote for Zhao, look to one of them. Fincher will have to wait a little longer to get what's arguably a long overdue Oscar. And Vinterberg is really just happy to be nominated.
Best Picture
1. *Nomadland
2. *The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. *Minari
4. *Promising Young Woman
5. *Mank
6. *The Father
7. *Sound of Metal
8. *Judas and the Black Messiah
I'm notoriously bad at picking this award. I haven't gotten it right since Birdman in 2014. I end up being late to a changing tide. Like, last year, I could tell Parasite had momentum, but I stuck with predicting the precursor winner, 1917. Despite how odd this Oscar season and year has been, this is looking like the easiest Best Picture call since Slumdog Millionaire. I have a few reasons why.
I've found 8 awards that correlate strongly with a Best Picture win:
-BAFTA Award for Best Feature Film
-Golden Globe Awards for Drama Film, Comedy/Music Film, or Foreign Language Film
-PGA Award for Feature Film
-DGA Award for Best Director
-SAG Ensemble Award
-ASC Cinematography Award
-ACE Drama Film Editing and Comedy Film Editing Awards
-WGA Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay Awards
Each of the last 20 Best Picture winners have been nominated for at least 6 of these awards and won at least one of them. This year, that is only 3 movies: Nomadland (6 nominations, 4 wins), Promising Young Woman (6 nods, 1 win), and The Trial of the Chicago 7 (7 nods, 2 wins). I was surprised to see that Minari was far back with only 4 nods and a Golden Globe win.
Then there's the Big 4 Oscar nominations. All of the last 50 Best Picture winners has been nominated for at least 3 of these 4 major award categories: Director, Screenplay, Acting, and Film Editing. That further crosses off total nomination leader Mank and Judas and the Black Messiah (both missing directing and editing nominations).
Finally, there's the simple fact that there hasn't really been much politicking going on this year. Nomadland has been the favorite to win for months and nothing has made a strong move to overtake it.
That means Nomadland remains the movie to beat. It just about has this locked up. It should even do pretty well with the infamous weighted voting method for Best Picture. It won the PGA Award, which is tallied the same way.
The only movie that mathematically even has a realistic chance to win is the broadly crowd-pleasing The Trial of the Chicago 7. That would be such a boring winner though. And I even like that movie a lot.
Minari is the movie that feels like it has the most late momentum but it hasn't managed to win a single major precursor award since the Golden Globe for Non-English Film. You can claim that Parasite or Moonlight surged late, but that's inaccurate. They had a healthy mix of wins throughout the season.
Those are the only three I can really see winning this award. Promising Young Woman is too polarizing for the weighted ballot. Mank is missing support in the major branches. The Father showed up to the season a little too late. Sound of Metal's Cinderella run can't go much further. Judas and the Black Messiah is really only being praised for its performances. A Best Picture winner needs more than that.
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