Emmy Predictions 2019 Results

A year ago, as I do every year, I made 10 predictions about the 2019 Emmys based only on speculation and the few shows that had already aired. Let's see how I did.

Prediction: HBO wins the big four series awards (drama, comedy, limited series, variety talk series)

Reasoning: 3 of the 4 looked like locks and the last one stood a good chance.

Reality: I was close. HBO locked up Drama and Variety Talk early. Chernobyl came out of nowhere and won Limited Series, which I thought was the most vulnerable category. It turns out Veep had trouble with the year off though.

Prediction: Julia Louis Dreyfus goes for seven and history.

Reasoning: She'd won against so much great competition over the years, and she just came back from cancer.

Reality: Simply put, Emmy voters aren't sentimental. They don't keep streaks alive just because. Also, as seen with Michael C. Hall's 2010 loss for Lead Actor in a Drama series, they aren't swayed by coming back from cancer either.

Prediction: Someone new from Veep is nominated.

Reasoning: Assuming that Veep still had massive support, the cast was too big and talented to keep choosing the same people every year.

Reality: Big lessons learned about momentum this year. The year off killed Veep's standing with Emmy voters. It couldn't even hang onto the nominations it had in 2017.

Prediction: None of the 2018 acting winners in Comedy and Drama repeat.

Reasoning: Enough shows were ending, taking breaks, or falling off that some new blood looked likely.

Reality: I was way over-zealous on this one. Bill Hader, Peter Dinklage, and Alex Borstein all repeated.

Prediction: HBO overtakes Netflix in total nominations.

Reasoning: Netflix barely edged out HBO the year before and HBO was bringing back Veep in addition to featuring Game of Thrones' swan song.

Reality: Thanks to Game of Thones' historic haul, a few other reliable performers (Barry, Veep, Last Week Tonight), and Chernobyl's surprise success, HBO easily regained the title.

Prediction: Someone new from Game of Thrones wins for acting.

Reasoning: With so many nominees, it became statistically improbable for only Dinklage to win.

Reality: Nope. Voters decided Dinklage was the representative actor for the show. The 4-way supporting actress split probably didn't help either.

Prediction: Between Outstanding Reality-Competition Program and Variety Talk Series, there will be three new nominees.

Reasoning: Neither category sees much turnover. Three was an ambitious number.

Reality: There was only one new nominee between either (Nailed It! in Competition Series). Hooray for Emmy complacency!

Prediction: The Amazing Race falls out of the Reality Competition field.

Reasoning: It's a good run (since 2003) that has to end eventually.

Reality: 16 years isn't long enough.

Prediction: Regina King continues her nomination streak.

Reasoning: She's always nominated for something, even when it's not clear what.

Reality: Between her Oscar campaigning and a more demanding schedule on the new Watchmen series, she couldn't fit in a project to earn an Emmy nomination for.

Prediction: Constance Wu gets nominated

Reasoning: Crazy Rich Asians would give her juice.

Reality: No juice. Fresh Off the Boat had a down season. What little momentum she had disappeared when she had some Twitter outbursts that sounded like she was complaining about the show being renewed. Oh well. At least Hustlers is doing well.

I got far too bold last year. Only 1 of my 10 predictions came true. I think I added too many qualifiers and went too specific. Oh well. Better luck next year.