Emmy Picks: Supporting Actor and Actress

It's time for another edition of my Emmy predictions. This is a tradition of mine built on two pillars:

1) Using far more detail than anyone needs.

2) Ending up with predictions that are only moderately above average in accuracy.

It's this mix of content without quality that I really think sets me apart. My goal in this and most activities on this blog are to defend my reasoning more than getting everything right. I'd much rather hear "I get why he was thinking that" than "he's always right". Wait, scratch that. That's a lie. I'm content with the former and striving for the latter. Regardless, let's see how it goes.

In most acting categories, the nominees choose a submission episode. Emmy voters are instructed to base their picks only on the submission episodes rather than for the entire season. In the pre-streaming days, the submission episode was a significant indicator of who would win. In recent years, it has been rendered insignificant. No one wins anymore for having a great submission episode. I will not base my predictions on the submission episode either, since it tends to point me the wrong way.

Note: In all categories I list the nominees from most to least likely to win in bold in the paragraph.

* Indicates a show that I haven't watched this season.

# Indicates a show I've seen before, not this season.

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy Series

• Anthony Carrigan (Barry) (HBO)
• Stephen Root (Barry) (HBO)
• Henry Winkler (Barry) (HBO)
• *Alan Arkin (The Kominsky Method) (Netflix)
• Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) (Prime Video)
• Tony Hale (Veep) (HBO)

There are no easy names to cross off here. This is a group of legends, former winners, and breakout stars. The fact the winner is chosen by a plurality vote rather than a weighted ballot changes the math here a bit. I'll go with Tony Hale (Veep) to win for a third time (also 2013, 2015). I think the drop in nomination count has people selling on Veep a little more than they should. I wouldn't be shocked to see Henry Winkler (Barry) repeat. He is Henry "The Fonz" Winkler after all: perhaps the nicest person in Hollywood. I worry that voters will decide that the win last year was a career achievement award and feel free to move on. Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) is a former three time winner in the Lead Actor category for Monk, which was otherwise ignored by the Emmys. The love for Shahloub is strong. I only have him this low because he already lost to Winkler once. Winkler also has a Stephen Root (Barry) problem. Root is also a beloved character actor who has worked for years, doing yeoman's work in TV and film. This is his first major nomination of any kind. Who knows what kind of built up affection there is for him. Also, he's really good in Barry. There isn't a lot of history of people winning with this narrative though. People don't win just because they've been around and ignored for a long time. Even Winkler last year had a few other Emmy nominations over the years. You could maybe look to Ann Dowd winning a couple years ago for The Handmaid's Tale despite competing against people in her own show as a sign for hope for Root. I may be selling on Alan Arkin (The Kominsky Method) prematurely. I didn't watch the show. Maybe I'm wrong about the love for him in it. It is more of a Golden Globes kind of show though. Also, the fact that no one from Grace and Frankie has managed to win seems informative here. I love that Anthony Carrigan (Barry) was nominated. I'm just not sure that many people would pick him over his costars. Then again, Louie Anderson winning for Baskets in 2016 is a great reminder of the effect of the plurality ballot. Sometimes, having the most unique performance is even better than having the best performance.

Biggest Snub: Manny Jacinto (The Good Place)

I have a soft spot for actors who can make any line funny. Jacinto has reached the point on The Good Place where it feels like the writers are coming up with crazy lines, just to see how he will say and interpret them.

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama Series

• Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul) (AMC)
• Giancarlo Esposito (Better Call Saul) (AMC)
• Alfie Allen (Game Of Thrones) (HBO)
• Nikolaj Coster-Waldau (Game Of Thrones) (HBO)
• Peter Dinklage (Game Of Thrones) (HBO)
• Michael Kelly (House Of Cards) (Netflix)
• Chris Sullivan (This Is Us) (NBC)

I'll say this a lot. Vote-splitting is only a problem if there isn't a clear best nominee. Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones) has won three times, including last year. He's the guy that Emmy voters have decided on for Game of Thrones. Voters don't typically shift gears this late in a series. Still, it does feel like Nikolaj Coster-Waldau (Game of Thrones) is Dinklage's biggest competition. Voters were slow to pick up on him, only giving him his first nomination last year. Perhaps enough people will decide that Dinklage has won enough. It's a decent drop off after those two. You'd think if Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul) was going to win, he would've done it by now (Specifically, the year he lost to "ghost Ben Mendelsohn"). I also don't see Giancarlo Esposito (Better Call Saul) leapfrogging Banks. After that, we move into the "spit take" group. I'm not sure how Michael Kelly (House of Cards) got back into the list. He didn't win before the show became toxic. What hope does he have now? Chris Sullivan (This Is Us) is fine, but it's telling that he's only getting his first nomination for a year when all the best dramas delayed their releases to get out of the way of Game of Thrones. And then there's Alfie Allen (Game of Thrones)...Uh, OK, sure.

Biggest Snub: Kieran Culkin (Succession)

There are no characters on TV having more fun being a spoiled, entitled, elitist little prick. And because the joke is that the show has complete contempt for him, he's somehow kind of likable. I have no idea how, in a field this thin, no one thought to make room for Culkin.

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Limited Series Or Movie

• Stellan Skarsgård (Chernobyl) (HBO)
• *Paul Dano (Escape At Dannemora) (Showtime)
• Ben Whishaw (A Very English Scandal) (Prime Video)
• Asante Blackk (When They See Us) (Netflix)
• John Leguizamo (When They See Us) (Netflix)
• Michael K. Williams (When They See Us) (Netflix)

It's been a nice run of 4 years where the choice for this award was easy. The love for all these shows run deep. I just don't know which is the deepest. I'm going to lean Paul Dano (Escape at Dannemora) since it's a showier performance than Stellan Skarsgard (Chernobyl). Both make a lot of sense though, since they're in shows with small main casts and don't have to worry about vote splitting. That also leads me to go with Ben Wishaw (A Very English Scandal) next. He's more of a co-lead on that show. I'd pick him even higher if I thought more people watched the show. I fully expect John Leguizamo (When They See Us) and Michael K. Williams (When They See Us) to cannibalize each other's votes. Both have about equal significance on the show and have similar past Emmy love. Had only one of them been nominated, I'd pick that one to win. As for Asante Blackk (When They See Us), I have an unfair but useful rule of thumb: If you don't even have a Wikipedia page yet, then you aren't going to win a major Primetime Emmy.

Biggest Snub: Steve Buscemi (Miracle Workers)

Look, the show wasn't perfect, but Buscemi made me laugh. I enjoyed his performance of God by way of The Dude.

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series

• Sarah Goldberg (Barry) (HBO)
• Sian Clifford (Fleabag) (Prime Video)
• Olivia Colman (Fleabag) (Prime Video)
• Betty Gilpin (GLOW) (Netflix)
• Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)
• Marin Hinkle (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) (Prime Video)
• Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live) (NBC)
• Anna Chlumsky (Veep) (HBO)

Oh my. By my count, only four of these women have a reasonable shot at winning, but it's hard to edge any of them out. Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) is just as fun in season 2 and gets an even better character arc. I don't think Marin Hinkle's nomination gets in her way much. Kate McKinnon (SNL) has two Emmys on her shelf already, and this year she doesn't have to compete with any SNL costars. For all I know, that will be enough to push her back over Borstein. Then there's the curious case of Olivia Colman (Fleabag). She just won an Oscar. Why not a Helen*? She has very real vote-split potential though. I'll also throw Sarah Goldberg (Barry) into the upper tier, because Barry is gaining momentum and she was terrific this season. Hader and Winkler won for the show last year, so we know voters are paying attention to the performances. Anna Chlumsky (Veep) has six nominations without a win so far. It's a bummer, but that doesn't look to change this year. Sian Clifford (Fleabag) has less name recognition than Colman. I'm also not that convinced that Fleabag is a show that will have winners not named Phoebe Waller-Bridge. GLOW has been too largely ignored for me to expect Betty Gilpin (GLOW) to pull off an upset. No one is picking Marin Hinkle (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) over Alex Borstein. That's just not a thing that will happen.

*Helen (noun) Winning an Oscar and Emmy for acting in the same year. Named after Helen Hunt and Helen Mirren, who have both done it. An alternate interpretation says that the Helen only counts if both are lead acting trophies.

Biggest Snub: D’Arcy Carden (The Good Place)

I love seeing how Carden imbues more and more character into the robot Janet over the course of the series. This season, she even got an episode where she got to do impressions of everyone else in the cast.

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama Series

• Gwendoline Christie (Game Of Thrones) (HBO)
• Lena Headey (Game Of Thrones) (HBO)
• Sophie Turner (Game Of Thrones) (HBO)
• Maisie Williams (Game Of Thrones) (HBO)
• Fiona Shaw (Killing Eve) (BBC America)
• *Julia Garner (Ozark) (Netflix)

As I've mentioned before, vote splitting isn't a problem when there's an obvious best choice, so for Game of Thrones here, that means...oh...oh no. Oh no no. Those are all good choices. Oh dear. This is going to be difficult. Maisie Williams (Game of Thrones) had the most big moments this season and has been nominated before. My twitter bubble is overrun with TV critics, so Gwendoline Christie (Game of Thrones) feels like the obvious next choice. Lena Heady (Game of Thrones) is the one with five consecutive nominations though. Sophie Turner (Game of Thrones) got the best character arc throughout the series. I feel quite confident that it's going to someone from Game of Thrones. I have no idea which one though. Julia Garner (Ozark) sneaking in for a win wouldn't shock me, I suppose. Most people I know of who watch the show agree that she's the best part, and few actors around have worked as much as her over the last few years. Surely, she's won a lot of friends with Emmy votes. I do think the Fiona Shaw (Killing Eve) nomination came a year too late. Then again, for all I know, the way people watch TV these days, a lot of people could vote for her having only seen season 1.

Biggest Snub: Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul)

It's still ridiculous that Seehorn wasn't even nominated despite the show getting four other acting nominations. She's one of the few snubs who would be my favorite to win had she been nominated. She is the glue that holds Better Call Saul together.

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Limited Series Or Movie

• *Patricia Arquette (The Act) (Hulu)
• Emily Watson (Chernobyl) (HBO)
• Margaret Qualley (Fosse/Verdon) (FX Networks)
• Patricia Clarkson (Sharp Objects) (HBO)
• Marsha Stephanie Blake (When They See Us) (Netflix)
• Vera Farmiga (When They See Us) (Netflix)

This feels like a place where people will vote for Patricia Arquette (The Act) so they don't feel bad for picking against her in Escape at Dannemora. I don't have any historical precedent to believe this will happen. It just sounds right to me. About a year ago, Patricia Clarkson (Sharp Objects) looked like something close to a lock to win this. While favor has fallen for that series overall, Clarkson might still have enough juice in a field with no obvious frontrunner. Chernobyl wasn't a show concerned with flashy performances, which doesn't help the actors. Emily Watson (Chernobyl) otherwise gets a lot to do on the show. I could see voters rewarding Margaret Qualley (Fosse/Verdon) for holding her own against the two leads. Vera Farmiga (When They See Us) has the proper name recognition, but she disappears for too long, and historically, voters don't like to vote for villains who are 0% likable. Farmiga even tamps down her charisma to make Elizabeth Lederer look worse. It's fine work that will have trouble winning. Masha Stephanie Blake (When They See Us) gets lost of the shows large ensemble.

Biggest Snub: Eliza Scanlan (Sharp Objects)

As good as Patricia Clarkson is in Sharp Objects as the stern and judging mother, Eliza Scanlan might be even better as Amy Adams' mischievous and abused sister. If nothing else, I'll point back to how surprised I was when I realized she was Australian.