1) Using
far more detail than anyone needs.
2) Ending
up with predictions that are only moderately above average in accuracy.
It's this mix
of content without quality that I really think sets me apart. My goal in this
and most activities on this blog are to defend my reasoning more than getting
everything right. I'd much rather hear "I get why he was thinking
that" than "he's always right". Wait, scratch that. That's a
lie. I'm content with the former and striving for the latter. Regardless, let's
see how it goes.
Note: In all categories I list the nominees from
most to least likely to win in bold in the paragraph.
In most acting categories, the nominees
choose a submission episode. Emmy voters are instructed to base their picks
only on the submission episodes rather than for the entire season. In the
pre-streaming days, the submission episode was a significant indicator of who
would win. In recent years, it has been rendered insignificant. No one wins
anymore for having a great submission episode. I will not base my predictions
on the submission episode either, since it tends to point me the wrong way.
* Indicates a show that I haven't
watched this season.
# Indicates a show I've seen before, not
this season.
- Bill Hader (Barry) (HBO)
- *Don Cheadle (Black Monday) (Showtime)
- Anthony Anderson (black-ish) (ABC)
- Ted Danson (The Good Place) (NBC)
- *Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method) (Netflix)
- *Eugene Levy (Schitt's Creek) (Pop TV)
Gone are the days when this category was the
heavyweight prize of the night. If you combined the actor and actress fields,
I'm not sure more than one actor would make the cut. Bill Hader (Barry)
to repeat. That's the closest I'll come to a non-Game of Thrones lock of
the night. Now, if I'm coming up with ways for a challenger to emerge, I'll
look first to the star wattage of Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method).
Emmy voters get less star struck than people give them credit for (Remember
Bryan Cranston beating peak McConaisance Matthew McConaughey?). Eugene Levy
(Schitt's Creek) could get the "career achievement" vote,
although those are pretty rare. I guess I'll put Don Cheadle (Black Monday)
here, since Black Monday is untested with Emmy voters thus far. I'll
look to his House of Lies losses to suggest why he shouldn't expect to
win now. Ted Danson (The Good Place) is a legend with somehow only 1
trophy in 15 tries, however, this is more of a supporting performance and on a
fringier show.Oh, and then there's Anthony Anderson (Black-ish). That show lost all its momentum.
Biggest Snub: Hank Azaria
(Brockmire)
This show is just plain funny, and Azaria is
the maestro at the center of the madness. I don't even have to care about
baseball to enjoy it.
Outstanding Lead Actor In
A Drama Series
- Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) (AMC)
- Kit Harington (Game Of Thrones) (HBO)
- *Jason Bateman (Ozark) (Netflix)
- Billy Porter (Pose) (FX Networks)
- Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) (NBC)
- Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us) (NBC)
Like the comedy actor award, this field has
thinned out significantly. I think Billy Porter (Pose) has more of a
supporting role in season 1, but I don't see that getting in the way of a win.
He's been everywhere for the last year. He seems to be universally loved. And,
season 2 of Pose directly overlapped with the Emmy voting window. I
really think it's his to lose. Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) has
finished second several years in a row now [~*Speculation*~].
Theoretically the math can work in his favor one of these years. While Sterling
K. Brown (This Is Us) had a terrible season 3 storyline, he is a former
recent winner (2017). I find it hard to believe that the Game of Thrones
bandwagon makes a stop to pick up Kit Harrington (Game of Thrones) for a
win. I may be severely underestimating the love for Jason Bateman (Ozark)
out there. He hasn't won anything before
though. There's probably a reason. I don't intend to sound mean when I say
this, but in what world does someone watch This Is Us and come away
thinking Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us) is doing better work than
Sterling K. Brown?
Biggest Snub: Wyatt
Russell (Lodge 49)
I know Russell is the son of Kurt Russell,
but all I see in this performance is Jeff Bridges and the Dude.
Outstanding Lead Actor In
A Limited Series Or Movie
- Jared Harris (Chernobyl) (HBO)
- *Benicio del Toro (Escape At Dannemora) (Showtime)
- Sam Rockwell (Fosse/Verdon) (FX Networks)
- Mahershala Ali (True Detective) (HBO)
- Hugh Grant (A Very English Scandal) (Prime Video)
- Jharrel Jerome (When They See Us) (Netflix)
It's Sam Rockwell (Fosse/Verdon),
right? It just has to be. This is a category with some weird winners lately
(Riz Ahmed in 2017, Barry Pepper in 2011), but Rockwell is obvious. I suppose Benicio
del Toro's (Escape at Dannemora) performance has been widely praised. For
some reason, I don't trust that series to actually win. Jarred Harris
(Chernobyl) is likely too buttoned up for voters to appreciate what he's
doing. I don't think Jharrell Jerome's (When They See Us) one spotlight
episode will be enough to push him to a win. If Matthew McConaughey couldn't
win for the adored season of True Detective, Maherhsala Ali (True Detective)
won't win for the forgotten season of it. As I've said already, I'm not
convinced enough people saw A Very English Scandal (Hugh Grant) to
believe it will win anything.
Biggest Snub: Ian McShane
(Deadwood)
Just give him a fucking Emmy, you cocksucker.
Outstanding Lead Actress
In A Comedy Series
- *Christina Applegate (Dead To Me) (Netflix)
- Phoebe Waller-Bridge (Fleabag) (Prime Video)
- Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) (Prime Video)
- Natasha Lyonne (Russian Doll) (Netflix)
- *Catherine O'Hara (Schitt's Creek) (Pop TV)
- Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep) (HBO)
Not a bad choice in the group. I kind of want
to see Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep) pull off the unthinkable and win for
every single season of Veep. I think this is the most loaded field she'd
been up against though with all the extra series creator power, a former
winner, and a beloved icon all nominated. I'm not ready to pick against
Louis-Dreyfus and history though. Given how dominant The Marvelous Mrs.
Maisel was last year, I shouldn't let Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous
Mrs. Maisel) fall too far. Phoebe Waller-Bridge's (Fleabag) star has
risen so quickly, that a win in the vein of Melissa McCarthy in 2011 isn't out
of the question, even if I think the better odds for her are in writing. As
much love as there is for Russian Doll (Natasha Lyonne), it feels like Fleadbag
is right ahead of it everywhere. Everything about Schitt's Creek's rapid
rise is unprecedented, so maybe Catherine O'Hara (Schitt's Creek) is a
sleeping giant. Then there's Christina Applegate (Dead to Me). I'm sure
she's great in the show. She's just in a really tough group.
Biggest Snub: Pamela Adlon
(Better Things)
The female star/creator/producer/writer/director
is becoming even more common than the male version these days, and Adlon might
be the best of them all. She's great at all parts of her job, but I still love
her acting the best. It's an understandably lived-in performance that lets her
be funny, acerbic, sweet, nasty, and every other nuance you can come up with.
It's hard to fit anyone else in this field, but there should've been room for
Adlon.
Outstanding Lead Actress
In A Drama Series
- Emilia Clarke (Game Of Thrones) (HBO)
- Robin Wright (House Of Cards) (Netflix)
- *Viola Davis (How To Get Away With Murder) (ABC)
- Jodie Comer (Killing Eve) (BBC America)
- Sandra Oh (Killing Eve) (BBC America)
- *Laura Linney (Ozark) (Netflix)
- Mandy Moore (This Is Us) (NBC)
This is the first year in a while when the
Lead Actress field wasn't overflowing with the kind of nominees you'd call a
lock any other year. Despite the somewhat surprising loss last year and the
potential for vote splitting this year, Sandra Oh (Killing Eve), should
take advantage of no Claire Foy or Elisabeth Moss. She's liked by everyone, and
the unevenness of season 2 of Killing Eve wasn't due to the acting. Emilia
Clarke (Game of Thrones) coming along for the ride as part of the Game
of Thrones farewell tour is certainly plausible. I can't find any evidence
of someone not winning in the supporting field then winning after a move to
lead. Wins like Jon Cryer's (Two and a Half Men) and Allison Janney's (The
West Wing) came after supporting wins. Occasionally, voters will look a few
years back for a past winner on a forgotten series. Julianna Marguilies won in
2014 after falling out of the field in 2013. That speaks well for 2015's
winner, Viola Davis (How To Get Away With Murder), who is back after
disappearing from the field last year. Robin Wright (House of Cards) is
0-5 so far. Perhaps the shift to her character as the sole lead will make a
difference. Or maybe people will vote for her for keeping the show alive after
the Kevin Spacey fiasco. I doubt it, but that's the narrative if you want to
believe it. Laura Linney (Ozark) has won a lot of Emmys. I just don't
see enough love for Ozark out there. Personally, I think Sandra Oh and Jodie
Comer (Killing Eve) are giving equally great performances. Oh has far more
brand equity with voters though. I imagine that will sway any tie-breaker
needed for voters. Mandy Moore (This Is Us) was nominated a year too
late. She's nice on the show. I love Mandy Moore. I can't recall anything
significant she did this season. Too much of her best material came buried
under the old age makeup.
Biggest Snub: Mj Rodriguez
(Pose)
The Billy Porter nomination is great and all,
but Mj Rodriguez is the performer I really wanted to see nominated. She is the
lead of Pose, served as the connective tissue for so many characters,
balanced involvement in several storylines, and made it one of the most
enjoyable shows of the last year.
Outstanding Lead Actress
In A Limited Series Or Movie
- *Joey King (The Act) (Hulu)
- *Patricia Arquette (Escape At Dannemora) (Showtime)
- Michelle Williams (Fosse/Verdon) (FX Networks)
- Amy Adams (Sharp Objects) (HBO)
- Aunjanue Ellis (When They See Us) (Netflix)
- Niecy Nash (When They See Us) (Netflix)
Heavy. Weights. At different
points of the year, at least three nominees were considered stone-cold locks
to win. I'm going with the most recent "lock" and picking Michelle
Williams (Fosse/Verdon). She sings. She dances. She humanizes Bob Fosse.
What can't she do? Patricia Arquette (Escape at Dannemora) surprised
everyone with two great performances this year. I suspect that after beating
Amy Adams for both the SAG Award and Golden Globe in the winter, voters will
look to award her in Supporting for The Act instead. Poor Amy Adams
(Sharp Objects) can't catch a break*. Sharp Objects aired nearly a
year ago, and all the excitement for her work has moved on to other people Joey
King (The Act) really transformed for her role and revealed herself as a
star on the rise. If you look at Emmy history though, voters aren't quick to
anoint a new generation with a win. Millie Bobby Brown (Stranger Things),
Frankie Muniz (Malcolm in the Middle), and Fred Savage (The Wonder
Years) only ever got nominations. Admittedly, Joey King is a bit older than
any of them were. Nicey Nash (When They See Us) and Aunjanue Ellis
(When They See Us) have the dual problems of vote splitting and category
fraud. Nice could've won had she submitted as a supporting actress (which is
what she was). As a lead, with this stacked field? No chance.
*This is only referring to
awards. In general, more Emmy or Oscar winners would trade careers with her in
a second.
Biggest Snub: Florence
Pugh (The Little Drummer Girl)
Personally, I thought The Little Drummer
Girl was a pulpy mess. The story was convoluted and I only occasionally
cared about what was going on. I never considered abandoning it though,
because Florence Pugh was infinitely watchable and engaging throughout. She
carried that show.
No comments:
Post a Comment