Emmy Picks: Series

It's time for another edition of my Emmy predictions. This is a tradition of mine built on two pillars:

1) Using far more detail than anyone needs.

2) Ending up with predictions that are only moderately above average in accuracy.

It's this mix of content without quality that I really think sets me apart. My goal in this and most activities on this blog are to defend my reasoning more than getting everything right. I'd much rather hear "I get why he was thinking that" than "he's always right". Wait, scratch that. That's a lie. I'm content with the former and striving for the latter. Regardless, let's see how it goes.

Note: In all categories I list the nominees from most to least likely to win in bold in the paragraph.

* Indicates a show that I haven't watched this season.

# Indicates a show I've seen before, not this season.

Outstanding Comedy Series

• Barry (HBO)
• Fleabag (Prime Video)
• The Good Place (NBC)
• The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)
• Russian Doll (Netflix)
• *Schitt's Creek (Pop TV)
• Veep (HBO)

Veep taking last year off sure complicates things since I can't read the momentum at all. The last one time winner of the Comedy series award was The Office in 2006. Even when seemingly everyone except Emmy voters had cooled on Modern Family, it continued winning for years. With that in mind, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel won last year. It picked up big nominations and doesn't tonally overlap much with any other nominee. That's a good formula for victory. While Veep did win the last three years it was eligible, this season wasn't received nearly as well. Let's just say the universe played a trump card since they last time they produced a season. Anyway, the year off makes it easier for voters to guilelessly move on. Looking at the lack of juice later seasons of Modern Family and Frasier won with, not to mention the sheer size of HBO's voting block means Veep should always be looked at as a threat to win. Speaking of HBO, Barry's nomination haul also puts it in good position. I'm just not convinced that a darker/auteur comedy like this can win yet. Shows like Louie, Master of None, Transparent, and Atlanta before it have all failed to win despite strong showing in the nominations. I'll bet against a show like Barry winning until I'm proven wrong and come out ahead more often than not. Also, direct network competition with Veep could hurt it. All that I just said about Barry goes double for Fleabag, since that show is even smaller, lacks the HBO branding, and is not its own network's first priority. Not to be repetitive, but I can say most of that about Russian Doll too. Which also points out how similar the three shows are. Remember, in nominating, there's no limit to the number of votes someone can make in a category, so it helps to have overlap with fans of similar shows. In the final voting, those voting bases get split and leave room for the more unique shows in the list. I've given up on more than a niche audience having a deep love of Michael Schur shows while they're still on the air. The Good Place may become a streaming favorite in a couple years, but right now, it's not winning Emmys. Schitt's Creek's rise to Emmy attention is so unprecedented that I have no way to assess its chances of winning. I suppose you could look to Arrested Development winning back in 2004, however that would require you to ignore how unexpected that was at the time and that it was for the first season.

Biggest Snub: American Vandal
I actually didn't care for the second and [sadly] final season initially, but I've already watched it three times in the last year. This series is a spot-on parody of true crime. It has some huge comedic sequences. Surprisingly, it also has emotional depth and razor sharp, non-judgmental commentary on the digital landscape teens grow up in these days. Mostly though, it makes me laugh.

Outstanding Drama Series

• Better Call Saul (AMC)
• *Bodyguard (Netflix)
• Game Of Thrones (HBO)
• *Ozark (Netflix)
• Pose (FX Networks)
• Succession (HBO)
• This Is Us (NBC)

So, Game of Thrones. That's all I really need to say here. It has an historic nomination count. It has the momentum from winning last year. The best competition, whether they'll admit it or not, moved back on the calendar to get out of Game of Thrones' way. Even if I think that there's voter fatigue settling in since the nomination ballots were submitted, I don't see a series ready to swoop in for the upset. I guess Pose, maybe. It aired its second season throughout the voting period and has grown in popularity and vocal support over the last year. Killing Eve has a similar narrative with the entirety of season 2 airing right before the voting window. I suspect that helped more with the nominations that it will with a win. Better Call Saul has the pedigree to win, and it did take Breaking Bad a few years as well to cement its status. It always had Bryan Cranston then Aaron Paul winning though. It's still not clear how much Better Call Saul love is just residual Breaking Bad support. Ozark got a decent number of nominations. Bodyguard and Succession are new and unproven. It's especially hard to see how Succession could leapfrog its HBO stablemate though. If This Is Us ever stood a chance to win, it was two years ago. It can thank Westworld, The Handmaid's Tale, Stranger Things, and The Crown for this nomination.

Biggest Snub: Sex Education
I know you are tired of hearing me say this. I don't care. It's ridiculous that they called Sex Education a drama. It's a comedy. And, instead of crossing a bunch of shows off my list that I still haven't seen, I chose to rewatch this show the other day. It holds up. Before you point it out, yes, I am aware that both my comedy and drama "biggest snubs" are Netflix high school comedies. Personally, I think this highlights an Emmy voter bias against more than my personal bias for.

Outstanding Limited Series

• Chernobyl (HBO)
• *Escape At Dannemora (Showtime)
• Fosse/Verdon (FX Networks)
• Sharp Objects (HBO)
• When They See Us (Netflix)

It's slowly dawning on me that I'm going to do pretty poorly this year. I would've called all of these shows frontrunners at some point after their releases. I'm going to use the fact that nearly every person possible got nominated for When They See Us as an indication that it has an unwavering base of support. Chernobyl was such an unexpected and recent hit that it has to be considered. It's not the kind of show that would collect nominations like When They See Us, but all three actors of note did get nominations as well as the writing and directing. Not for nothing, it is still the 4th highest rated show of all time on IMDB's deeply flawed TV show list. 3rd feels too low for Fosse/Verdon, but here we are. An FX show has won 3 of the last 5 years, often on the back of impressive casting. Escape at Dannemora had its moment at the end of 2018. Too many shiny new shows have come along, while Dannemora has already been properly awarded elsewhere. Sharp Objects just isn't a factor anymore. Chernobyl's success was the death knell, as HBO shifted its primary support to that.

Biggest Snub: The Haunting of Hill House
Horror doesn't get the respect it deserves. This show juggled an unwieldy story and a large cast quite successfully.

Outstanding Television Movie

• *Black Mirror: Bandersnatch (Netflix)
• *Brexit (HBO)
• Deadwood (HBO)
• *King Lear (Prime Video)
• *My Dinner With Hervé (HBO)

The TV movie category is a different kind of difficult. I believe the word I'm looking for is 'shallow'. While it was edged out of a lot of other categories by the Limited Series, I'll go ahead and call Deadwood the movie to beat. The series had a modicum of past Emmy love. And four years since a TV movie win for HBO is an eternity (It last won for Bessie in 2015) considering that it won 11 of the 12 years before this cold streak. Black Mirror has won the last two years, but Bandersnatch is more of a curio that a great movie/episode. Perhaps brand name helps it out. King Lear has a really fucking impressive cast. If that had aired on HBO, it would be much more likely to win. I don't think that many people know about it. Game of Thrones will win a lot. Peter Dinklage is in Game of Thrones. Peter Dinklage is in My Dinner with Herve. So, My Dinner with Herve could win? I watch a decent amount of HBO. I don't even remember seeing an ad for Brexit.

Biggest Snub: The Romanoffs: End of the Line
I didn't love The Romanoffs. This is a thin field, and my favorite episodes weren't even submitted for consideration. I suppose this Kathryn Hahn episode is the closest thing to a "snub".

Outstanding Variety Talk Series

• *The Daily Show With Trevor Noah (Comedy Central)
• *Full Frontal With Samantha Bee (TBS)
• *Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)
• Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO)
• *The Late Late Show With James Corden (CBS)
• *The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS)

Death. Taxes. Variety Talk Series nominees. These are all inevitabilities. The Variety Series award, even before the category split has always been slow to change. This is the exact same group of nominees from 2018. It's Jimmy Kimmel Live!'s 8th consecutive nomination. The 5th for Last Week Tonight (it started 5 years ago). The 4th for The Late Late Show. The 3rd for Full Frontal. When The Daily Show (11 wins on 14 nominations under John Stewart) and The Late Show (host Stephen Colbert's last show won 2 times with 9 nominations) are considered the "new" nominees, then you know this is a category resistant to change. Anyway, Last Week Tonight will win again. The rest of the order doesn't really matter, so let's say Full Frontal, The Late Show, The Daily Show, The Late Late Show, then Jimmy Kimmel Live!

Biggest Snub: Late Night with Seth Meyers
If the lineup of nominees wasn't etched in stone every year, then Late Night would likely be next up. Seth Meyers has found his rhythm and the show has some of the smartest political writing out there.

Outstanding Variety Sketch Series

• *At Home With Amy Sedaris (truTV)
• Documentary Now! (IFC)
• *Drunk History (Comedy Central)
• *I Love You, America With Sarah Silverman (Hulu)
• *Saturday Night Live (NBC)
• Who Is America? (Showtime)

Variety Sketch Series lost the divorce with Variety Talk Series. It seemed like a good idea at the time. In 2015, Comedy Central had a strong crop of sketch series; Inside Amy Schumer and Key & Peele had a ton of buzz. Portlandia had found surprisingly long life on IFC. Drunk History was a fresh idea. SNL  was the institutional rock. A few years later and the trend has reversed. SNL is still around and likely to win. After that, it's a selection of shows from big names that you'd expect to carry more weight. It's becoming clear that Borat was more blip than trend when it comes to America's feelings about Sasha Baron Cohen. Still Who Is America? is at least new. Documentary Now! is a great show and gets better guest stars than even SNL sometimes, but at the end of the day, it's still a show often about obscure, older documentaries airing on a niche network. Drunk History has five nominations and has proven its staying power. I Love You America has Sarah Silverman, who managed to land a Lead Actress nomination on her last show. At Home with Amy Sedaris fully doesn't exist until Emmy nomination ballots go out. You'd think with the rise of short-form storytelling in the form of limited series and anthology series that an uptick in sketch series wouldn't be far behind. So far, that hasn't been the case.

Biggest Snub: I Think You Should Leave With Tim Robinson
The only thing I've seen of this is that Brunch/Instagram sketch. It was OK, I guess. That's good enough to count as a snub in this shallow-to-the-point-of-being-empty pool.

Outstanding Competition Program

• *The Amazing Race (CBS)
• American Ninja Warrior (NBC)
• *Nailed It! (Netflix)
• *RuPaul's Drag Race (VH1)
• *Top Chef (Bravo)
• *The Voice (NBC)

RuPaul's Drag Race finally won last year. Now that it's proven that it could get the win, I see no reason to pick against it. Otherwise, reverting back to The Voice (which won 2013 and 2015-2017) makes sense. Or even The Amazing Race, which used to be an unstoppable force in the category (10 wins as recently as 2014). I personally love American Ninja Warrior, but the bits they do between the obstacle courses are far to treacly and saccharine. Top Chef is also a former winner, all the way back in 2010. I'm not sure what Nailed It! is. It's a first time nominee in a field that doesn't handle turnover well. I mean, The Amazing Race has 17 nominations. 13 for Top Chef. 8 for The Voice. 4 for American Ninja Warrior. 3 for Drag Race.  

Biggest Snub: Battlebots
I like seeing robots beat each other up. I have nothing else to add to this.