1) Using
far more detail than anyone needs.
2) Ending
up with predictions that are only moderately above average in accuracy.
It's this mix
of content without quality that I really think sets me apart. My goal in this
and most activities on this blog are to defend my reasoning more than getting
everything right. I'd much rather hear "I get why he was thinking
that" than "he's always right". Wait, scratch that. That's a
lie. I'm content with the former and striving for the latter. Regardless, let's
see how it goes.
Note: In all categories I list the nominees from
most to least likely to win in bold in the paragraph.
* Indicates a show that I haven't
watched this season.
# Indicates a show I've seen before, not
this season.
- Barry – “ronny/lily” (HBO) (Alec Berg, Bill Hader)
- Fleabag – “Episode 1” (Prime Video) (Phoebe Waller-Bridge)
- The Good Place – “Janet(s)” (NBC) (Josh Siegal, Dylan Morgan)
- *PEN15 – “Anna Ishii-Peters” (Hulu) (Maya Erskine, Anna Konkle)
- Russian Doll – “Nothing In This World Is Easy” (Netflix) (Leslye Headland, Natasha Lyonne, Amy Poehler)
- Russian Doll – “A Warm Body” (Netflix) (Allison Silverman)
- Veep – “Veep” (HBO) (David Mandel)
Last year's winner, The Marvelous Mrs.
Maisel wasn't even nominated. Veep is the only show that's won this
award before, and it hasn't done so since 2015. This is about as open as the
field ever gets. Barry clearly has a lot of love with the Emmy voters,
and the two Master of None wins indicate that they are happy to award
showrunners writing stand alone episodes. That makes "ronny/lily"
(Barry) and easy selection. This also looks like a good place to give
Phoebe Waller-Bridge ("Episode 1" - Fleabag) an award. The Master
of None and Louie past wins really underline how willing they are to
give it to writer/stars of small shows. Veep ("Veep") is a past winner, but it
had trouble winning in much more dominant years. The lack of a vote split may
help. The last time it won was also the last year that only one episode of Veep
was nominated. Emmy voters don't have the same soft spot for series finales
that they do for series pilots. The last series finales to win were 30 Rock in
2013 then The Larry Sanders Show all the way back in 1998. "Nothing
In This World Is Easy" (Russian Doll) would have better odds without
the vote split since it's the episode written by three beloved
writers/producers/actresses/directors. That puts "A Warm Body"
(Russian Doll) slightly behind it. I'm so pleased to see "Janet(s)"
(The Good Place) nominated, but you can ask "Remedial Chaos
Theory" (Community) in 2012 what I think its odds of winning are. And "Anna
Ishii-Peters" (PEN15) is firmly in the "just happy to be
nominated" camp.
Biggest Snub: Forever –
“Andre and Sarah”
This decades-spanning story of two realtors
who fall in love came out of nowhere to be the standout episode of the mostly forgettable,
short-lived Amazon series. It's another one that's light on the laughs, but
it's a terrific, disorienting little bottle episode.
Outstanding Writing For A
Drama Series
- Better Call Saul – “Winner” (AMC) (Peter Gould, Thomas Schnauz)
- *Bodyguard – “Episode 1” (Netflix) (Jed Mercurio)
- Game Of Thrones – “The Iron Throne” (HBO) (David Benioff, D.B. Weiss)
- The Handmaid's Tale – “Holly” (Hulu) (Bruce Miller, Kira Snyder)
- Killing Eve – “Nice And Neat” (BBC America) (Emerald Fennell)
- Succession – “Nobody Is Ever Missing” (HBO) (Jesse Armstrong)
The winners of this award are almost all
pilots, season finales, or "event" episodes. Last year, Game of
Thrones' streak ended due to The Americans' series finale winning
it. It took the FNL finale to end the Mad Men streak in 2011. The
Homeland and The Handmaid's Tale pilots won for establishing a new
world. "Q&A" (Homeland) had the momentum of the S1 win to
win in S2. Please, find me the narrative among the other nominees this year to
spoil the "The Iron Throne" (Game of Thrones) victory lap? I
guess The Handmaid's Tale has won before, so "Holly" (The
Handmaid's Tale) has a reasonable chance. "Pilot" (Bodyguard)
has that new series sheen. Someone can watch a screener and not be lost
watching it. That's why so many pilots do well in the writing categories. Killing
Eve ("Nice and Neat") has some buzz and picked up in overall
nominations. Something tells me that if it's ever going to happen for Better
Call Saul ("Winner"), it'll be for whenever it has a series
finale. The Succession ("Nobody Is Ever Missing") love still
feels a bit too niche.
Biggest Snub: Sex
Education – “Episode 1”
The nomination ballot list is pretty thin, so
I'll use this as another chance to beat the drum for this Netflix gem that was
torpedoed by a Drama series designation. It's a comedy. A great comedy. And the
pilot is really efficient and smart.
Outstanding Writing For A
Limited Series, Movie Or Dramatic Special
- Chernobyl (HBO) (Craig Mazin)
- *Escape At Dannemora – “Episode 6” (Showtime) (Brett Johnson, Michael Tolkin, Jerry Stahl)
- *Escape At Dannemora – “Episode 7” (Showtime) (Brett Johnson, Michael Tolkin)
- Fosse/Verdon – “Providence” (FX Networks) (Steven Levenson, Joel Fields)
- A Very English Scandal (Prime Video) (Russell T Davies)
- When They See Us – “Part Four” (Netflix) (Ava DuVernay, Michael Starrbury)
Unlike the directing award, the writing award
doesn't favor series written by a single person. It most often goes to TV
movies (Game Change, You Don't Know Jack) or stand-alone
anthology episodes (Black Mirror twice, Sherlock). Those aren't
really an option this year, leaving this wide open. When They See Us
("Part Four") feels right. It's mostly a stand-alone episode
about a man's experience in prison, and it has the bittersweet end of the
series. This would also be a great place to award Craig Mazin for Chernobyl.
Each episode of that series struck a completely different tone, and it's hard
to believe it was all from the same writer. The Fosse/Verdon
("Providence") conclusion could make some sense to win. I
personally think they would do better had a Verdon spotlight episode been
nominated. Escape at Dannemore has two problems: vote splitting and the
writing is a solid third behind the acting and directing when it comes to
discussion the show. "Episode 7" (Escape at Dannemore) has a
slight edge over "Episode 6" (Escape at Dannemore) since it's
the finale. Then There's A Very English Scandal. Who knows? The Hour,
another British import did win randomly in 2013. I still have no proper
explanation for how that happened.
Biggest Snub: Castle Rock
– “The Queen”
This is a Sissy Spacek spotlight episode that
shifts timelines to reflect her mental state falling apart. At least, that's
what I've been told. All I know is that people raved about this episode and it
sounds like a very writerly exercise.
Outstanding Writing For A
Variety Series
- Documentary Now! (IFC)
- *Full Frontal With Samantha Bee (TBS)
- Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO)
- *Late Night With Seth Meyers (NBC)
- *The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS)
- Saturday Night Live (NBC)
This used to be a little difficult when The
Daily Show and The Colbert Report traded off every year. Since those
went away, Last Week Tonight has won the last 3 years with no sign of
slowing down. Full Frontal still feels like the obvious competitor,
although the attention on that show has cooled as the public has had trouble
maintaining the anti-Trump rage. Given The Colbert Show's former
success, you'd expect Colbert's The Late Show to be in decent position. Documentary
Now! is sort of the odd duck in the field (although I wouldn't be against a
win). Those who have been paying attention realize that Late Night With Seth
Meyers has been on a role for a while. SNL is so credited as a feat
of performance and direction, that even in good seasons (this was an OK
season), it has trouble winning this award. In fact, it hasn't won since 2002
and 1989 before that.
Biggest Snub: The Daily
Show with Trevor Noah
Most people don't realize that The Daily
Show is good again. Trevor Noah took his lumps and made it his own. It will
never be the cultural monolith that Stewart's version was, but it's still a
smartly written show.
No comments:
Post a Comment