It's time
for another edition of my Emmy predictions. This is a tradition of mine built
on two pillars:
1) Using
far more detail than anyone needs.
2) Ending
up with predictions that are only moderately above average in accuracy.
It's this mix
of content without quality that I really think sets me apart. My goal in this
and most activities on this blog are to defend my reasoning more than getting
everything right. I'd much rather hear "I get why he was thinking
that" than "he's always right". Wait, scratch that. That's a
lie. I'm content with the former and striving for the latter. Regardless, let's
see how it goes.
Note: In all categories I list the nominees from
most to least likely to win in bold in the paragraph.
* Indicates a show that I haven't
watched this season.
# Indicates a show I've seen before, not
this season.
- Barry – “The Audition” (HBO) (Alec Berg)
- Barry – “ronny/lily” (HBO) (Bill Hader)
- The Big Bang Theory – “The Stockholm Syndrome” (CBS) (Mark Cendrowski)
- Fleabag – “Episode 1” (Prime Video) (Harry Bradbeer)
- The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – “All Alone” (Prime Video) (Amy Sherman-Palladino)
- The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – “We're Going To The Catskills!” (Prime Video) (Daniel Palladino)
The trend lately is to hand this award over
to the creator/showrunner of the series. Given that, plus that fact the the
series won this last year and is the favorite to repeat for series, "All Alone" (The Marvelous Mrs.
Maisel) looks like the easy pick. I don't think it has to worry about vote
splitting, since Emmy voters, for all their shortcomings do pay attention to
the person nominated as much as the series. The fact that Barry lost
this last year concerns me a little, but otherwise, Bill Hader's work directing
the episode "ronny/lilly" (Barry) is tough to ignore. It's a
showy episode that should separate itself from the other nominated episode from
the series. I do need to acknowledge that Fleabag hit the Emmys hard
this year, which gives "Episode 1" (Fleabag) a puncher's
chance. However, I think voters would rather look to find a more direct way to
award Phoebe Waller-Bridge, who did not direct this episode. After that, Alec
Berg co-created Barry, so there's a chance that his episode, "The
Audition" (Barry), could get the showrunner bump. Or maybe voters will
be content with giving any Palladino an award and pick "We're Going to
the Catskills" (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel). What I do feel sure about
is that "The Stockholm Syndrome" (The Big Bang Theory) has no
juice. Emmy voters tend to give the series finale bump for writing, not
directing. Big Bang has no momentum. It's never won for directing, and
former titan, Jim Parsons, hasn't even been nominated since 2014. If I'm
reaching, I could point out that it's the only traditional sitcom nominated,
and since Emmy voting is "plurality wins", sometimes the nominee that
is the most unique has the best odds.
Biggest Snub:Ramy –
“Strawberries”
This under-seen Hulu series about an American
Muslim trying to negotiate those two parts of his identity featured this
flashback episode, recounting what 9/11 was like for an Egyptian-American kid.
It's a really striking episode, even though it is light on the laughs.
Outstanding Directing For
A Drama Series
- Game Of Thrones – “The Iron Throne” (HBO) (David Benioff, D.B. Weiss)
- Game Of Thrones – “The Last Of The Starks” (HBO)(David Nutter)
- Game Of Thrones – “The Long Night” (HBO) (Miguel Sapochnik)
- The Handmaid's Tale – “Holly” (Hulu) (Daina Reid)
- Killing Eve – “Desperate Times” (BBC America) (Lisa Brühlmann)
- *Ozark – “Reparations” (Netflix) (Jason Bateman)
- Succession – “Celebration” (HBO) (Adam McKay)
I worry about a potential three-way split
among the Game of Thrones episodes opening the door for another series
to win. The Crown likely benefited from that just last year. I'm just
going to fall back on the old strategy of picking the most directing,
not the best directing. That puts "The Long Night" (Game of
Thrones), the most technically impressive television episode of the year, as
the clear favorite. If not that, look for Emmy voters to give the award to the
series creators and pick "The Iron Throne" (Game of Thrones).
Then I'll say that "The Last of the Starks" (Game of Thrones)
is next after that. I just don't think any of the non-Game of Thrones
nominees are strong enough to spoil GoT's night. Killing Eve did
pick up some nominations, so "Desperate Times" (Killing Eve)
wouldn't be a bad choice. The Handmaid's Tale managed to get the second
most Drama series nominations this year despite not actually airing a full
season. There's obviously some love for it; enough that "Holly"
(The Handmaid's Tale) winning isn't inconceivable. Ozark
("Reparations") just doesn't strike me as a show that's ever
going to win much. I think its base of support doesn't increase enough from the
nomination to the award voting stages. And Succession
("Celebration") is here because Adam McKay's name carries some
weight and this was a weak year for Drama series.
Biggest Snub: Better Call
Saul – “Something Stupid”
Really, you could pick any Better Call
Saul episode. I picked this one because of the titular opening montage.
This show has such inventive direction, I'm genuinely confused by it not
getting a single episode nominated in such a shallow Drama series year.
Outstanding Directing For
A Limited Series, Movie Or Dramatic Special
- Chernobyl (HBO) (Johan Renck)
- *Escape At Dannemora (Showtime) (Ben Stiller)
- Fosse/Verdon – “Glory” (FX Networks) (Jessica Yu)
- Fosse/Verdon – “Who’s Got The Pain” (FX Networks) (Thomas Kail)
- A Very English Scandal (Prime Video) (Stephen Frears)
- When They See Us (Netflix) (Ava DuVernay)
This is the deepest Limited Series race in
years, so fittingly, all the categories are hard to predict. Two factors matter
a lot for the limited series categories.
1) They like to award showrunners with
familiar names.
2) If a series was completely directed by one
person, then the whole series, not just one episode gets nominated. That is a
massive advantage.
Given those two factors and the total overall
nomination counts, When They See Us is the one to beat. Chernobyl
for the same reason, except Johan Renck is less of a brand name than Ava
DuVernay. Both directors got to show off great variety of skills over several
episodes. Had the series as a whole been able to be nominated, the flashiness
of Fosse/Verdon would probably win. Having single episodes nominated along with
vote splitting hurts the odds. I'll still go with "Glory" (Fosse/Verdon)
and "Who's Got the Pain" (Fosse/Verdon) as next most likely
to win. I think Escape At Dannemora came out too long ago to think it'll
win here. Ben Stiller is a big name. Maybe he's more beloved by Emmy voters
than I realize. I really don't see any room for A Very English Scandal
to sneak in. While the show was good, not that many people saw it and the
direction doesn't really stick out.
Biggest Snub: The Haunting
of Hill House
The limited series field forced out the genre
shows as soon as more prestige-y options became available, so this show never
had a shot at getting nominated. Mike Flanagan does excellent work on this show
though. He balances multiple time periods. He continually finds new ways to get
scares that fit tonally. He even has an episode with really long continuous
shots: a trick that voters love to call "great directing".
Outstanding Directing For
A Variety Series
- Documentary Now! – “Waiting For The Artist” (IFC) (Alex Buono, Rhys Thomas)
- *Drunk History – “Are You Afraid Of The Drunk?” (Comedy Central) (Derek Waters)
- Last Week Tonight With John Oliver – “Psychics” (HBO) (Paul Pennolino)
- *The Late Show With Stephen Colbert – “Live Midterm Election Show” (CBS) (Jim Hoskinson)
- Saturday Night Live – “Host: Adam Sandler” (NBC) (Don Roy King)
- *Who Is America? – “Episode 102” (Showtime) (Sacha Baron Cohen, Nathan Fielder, Daniel Gray Longino, Dan Mazer)
SNL has won this 7 of the last 9 years. The
only times it lost was for the final year of Jon Stewart's The Daily Show
and peak Amy Schumer. I see no reason to pick against "Host: Adam
Sandler" (SNL). The Daily Show win in 2015 offers some evidence
of voters going into autopilot, so "Psychics" (Last Week Tonight)
winning isn't out of the question. If I believed that a plurality of voters
even watched "Waiting for the Artist" (Documentary Now!), then
it would have a good chance. "Live Midterm Election Show" (The
Late Show) has a political connection if that's what's motivating voters
this year. Neither "Episode 102" Who Is America? or "Are
You Afraid of the Drunk?" (Drunk History) have little or no traction.
Biggest Snub: At Home With
Amy Sedaris – “Thanksgiving”
Of the unnominated series, this is the one
that the most people I've heard said was great. I don't watch enough Variety
Series to be a snub authority here.
No comments:
Post a Comment