2020 Emmy Predictions

My super early Emmy predictions post is my oldest tradition on this blog and one of my favorites. It is exactly what it sounds like. With the Emmy Awards for 2019 handed out last Sunday, I'm going to make 10 predictions about the 2020 Emmys based on speculation about shows I do and don't know about that will air in the next year (technically, the next 10 months). Then, on Emmy night in 2020, I'll see how I did.

Combined, Disney+, Apple TV+, and Peacock will only have 1 major Primetime Emmy nomination.

The streaming wars are upon us with seemingly every company (including Walmart) offering some sort of streaming service. The big players expected to show up in the next year are Disney, Apple, and NBCUniversal. Despite all the big shows that these services will premiere with, I think they'll barely make a blip with Emmy voters.

Really, this is a vote of no confidence in Apple TV+. Disney+ isn't aiming for the Emmy voters. Peacock is still in the early stages. Apple TV+ has shows like The Morning Show and Dickinson that have dreams of prestige. Frankly, I'm not convinced that Apple TV+ will have the adoption level that it needs or be able to control the narrative of Emmy season beyond a stray nomination for Jennifer Aniston, Steve Carrell, or Reese Witherspoon (presumably competing against herself in Big Little Lies).

HBO will still get the most Emmy nominations.

Big Little Lies is back. Westworld is back. Succession is gaining momentum. Barry is probably back. Silicon Valley might have some steam left. His Dark Materials and Watchmen look like below the line darlings if nothing else. Last Week Tonight isn't slowing down. They always have a limited series or two lurking around. The only place they look a little thin is comedy, but I wouldn't be surprised if they turn up with a hot new comedy by May.

The Drama and Comedy series awards go to shows not in their first seasons.

I think we are in an age of discovery. It's certainly possible for shows to win for first seasons, but the trend has been toward slow builds the last few years. Fleabag won for its second season. Game of Thrones and Veep took several seasons to turn into juggarnauts. Schitt's Creek rode a wave of Netflix discovery to get an improbable nomination this year. Combine that with the fact that the most exciting new shows tend to be limited series at this point, and I'm convinced that whatever wins the Comedy and Drama series awards next year, we've already seen a season or two of them. On the comedy side, Marvelous Mrs. Maisel and Barry will be back. Another season of Atlanta might be ready. Schitt's Creek could maintain its upward trajectory. On the drama side, The Handmaid's Tale, Stranger Things, Westworld, and The Crown will all return after a year off. Succession and Pose picked up steam this past summer. Better Call Saul may finally turn those nominations into wins.

Netflix still won't have a major series winner.

House of Cards - 0/5

Orange is the New Black - 0/2 (in both Drama and Comedy)

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt - 0/4

Stranger Things - 0/2

Master of None - 0/2

The Crown - 0/2

Ozark - 0/1

Russian Doll - 0/1

Godless - Never really has a chance.

Bloodline, The Get Down, Gilmore Girls: A Year in the Life, Grace & Frankie, 13 Reasons Why, GLOW, Mindhunter, Maniac, Seven Seconds, The Kominsky Method, Dead To Me - Never had a seat at the table.

When They See Us - So, so close.

In the last six years, Netflix has created an arms race out of Emmy campaigning, outspending and outtrying every other network. Still, they have never won a major series award at the Emmys. Hulu won one (The Handmaid's Tale). Amazon won two (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Fleabag). Even after a full court press across all categories that saw them break HBO's overall nominations streak last year, they haven't been the big winner on Emmy night. 2020 won't be any different.

No repeat winners in the major Comedy and Drama acting categories.

I said it last year, but this time I mean it. And let me clarify. I'm only referring to no repeat 2019 winners. That doesn't exclude Rachel Brosnahan or Thandie Newton (2018 winners) coming back and winning. Only Lead Actress in a Comedy (Phoebe Waller Bridge) and Supporting Actor in a Drama (Peter Dinklage) are guaranteed to be new winners. Of the other six, I could see a lot of new blood. Bill Hader and Alex Borstein will find out how hard it is to threepeat. Surely Billy Porter will have a tougher Lead Actor in a Drama field. Jodie Comer and Julia Garner have to worry about the Big Little Lies and The Crown's collection of Oscar winners and nominees. Tony Shalhoub benefitted from a massively divided field of nominees from Barry. Frankly, when I started this paragraph, I was just trying to be contrarian. Now I've convinced myself that this is a pretty good prediction.

Rhea Seehorn finally gets nominated for Better Call Saul.

Better Call Saul isn't going away. Eventually, Seehorn has to break through. It took Anna Gunn a few season too, and she ended up being a two time winner for Breaking Bad.

Regina King gets nominated for Watchmen.

I'm banking a lot on Watchmen getting the love that The Leftovers never did. There's a lot of love out there for King, so I'm looking for her to do with Watchmen what she couldn't do on The Leftovers: get nominated.

Pose gets an historic nomination for one of its actresses.

The second season of Pose started too late to help with the nominations this year, although it pushed Billy Porter over the edge for a Lead Actor win. Now that all the doubters know that Pose isn't going anywhere, it's time to see a nomination for Mj Rodriguez, Dominque Jackson, Indya Moore, and/or Angelica Ross.

Variety Talk Series, Variety Sketch Series, and Competition Series only see one repeat winner between them.

Last Week Tonight just got its fourth consecutive win. SNL got its third. Rupaul's Drag Race is up to two in a row. These three categories are the most resistent to change, but I'm calling it. Only one of these will add to their collection next year. (Let's be honest: probably Last Week Tonight)

Neither HBO nor Black Mirror win the TV Movie award.

HBO dominated this category for two decades. Black Mirror found a cheat code that has allowed it to win the last three years. In 2020, the winner is coming from somewhere else. Maybe a Disney+ movie will qualify. Netflix may have some Oscar cast-offs. Perhaps another Sherlock season will be ready. Now that Black Mirror has exploited the category, another anthology series could succeed in the same way. I don't know how, but something new is winning.