Emmy Picks: Series

Finally, I've reached the end of this phase of my obsessive Emmy coverage. It's time for the big awards: The Series winners. Each category is arranged by the series I believe is most to least likely to win. I also included the show I believed to be the biggest snub as well as who I would pick if I had a vote.

Creative Arts Emmy Picks
Emmy Picks: Writing
Emmy Picks: Directing
Emmy Picks: Supporting Actor and Actress
Emmy Picks: Lead Actor and Actress

Outstanding Comedy Series

Veep (HBO) It's time for Modern Family to lose. It just is. Picking the show to take its place is difficult. I'm going with Veep for a few reasons. With 4 consecutive nominations, it's the most tenured on the list and it has more nominations across more categories than it's ever received. It could sweep the entire night except for Lead Actor and that wouldn't be undeserved in any category. It helps that this last season was wickedly funny.

Transparent (Amazon) Sometimes it takes a freshman series to shake things up. Transparent has a lock to win with Jeffrey Tambor and major nominations just about everywhere. It's certainly the most groundbreaking series (topically) on the list. The only knock I can find against it is Orange is the New Black least year and Louie and Girls years before haven't won as the hip alternative. How is Transparent different? That said, I don't feel confident picking against it.

Modern Family (ABC) No show has ever won six times. The only one to win five times, of course, is Frasier. Both shows succeeded by being largely directed more than written. In Frasier's first four seasons it won for directing. Modern Family has won directing the last four years and lost in its first season as a fluke. It fell out of the directing field this year entirely and lost a lot of acting nominations. Basically, it lost its base. I don't see it winning again. Too much precedent is stacked against it. Then again, it's won five times already. Is six so crazy?

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix) I really don't see this winning at all. Emmy voters did love 30 Rock though, which was from the same creative team. And, they seemed to remember this show despite being dropped by NBC. There is love for it. For me, it's simple. If the voters can't appreciate Ellie Kemper enough to nominate her, then they don't appreciate the show enough for it to win.

[My Favorite] Parks and Recreation (NBC) It absolutely should win. This is only the second time it's even been nominated. Nothing would please me more than for it to win, but love-fests for final seasons are rare and winning like this despite never having won before is unprecedented.

Louie (FX) The nomination count keeps growing for the show each year, but if it hasn't won yet, I don't think it will now. Louie is not a show that people figure out over time. And this season wasn't as good as the other seasons that lost.

Silicon Valley (HBO) I'm so happy to see this nominated. There's just no way this is a show that Emmy voters pick to win. The absence of nominations for any of the actors is the most damning indicator.

Biggest Snub: Shameless (SHO) Have I seen this season in particular? No. Have I loved every season enough to be confident that this one is good enough? Yes. Have I heard good things about this season anyway? Also yes.

Outstanding Drama Series

[My Favorite] Mad Men (AMC) Eight time nominee (for eight seasons). Four time winner (2008-2011). A staggering 108 nominations in its run. This is the kind of show that would get a send off win like Breaking Bad last year or (better comparison) The Sopranos in 2007. To help support this, there was a jump in nominations from last year.

Game of Thrones (HBO) Game of Thrones keeps getting a nomination for series every year. It has 11 total, which is down a little from previous years, but it has a bunch of major nominations, more than years before (3 supporting actor/actress nominations, 2 for directing). This might be it's best chance to win. I don't see how it ever gets over the hump though.

Better Call Saul (AMC) It's hard to tell how far this residual Breaking Bad love goes. Could it actually carry Saul to a drama series win? That seems excessive. I don't see it happening, but it's still a more likely narrative than some of these other shows.

Downton Abbey (PBS) Five consecutive nominations is nothing to sneeze at. I've heard this was a bounce-back season, but the Downton Abbey craze has died down. If season 2 couldn't win with everything going for it, a fifth season with diminished nominations isn't going to.

House of Cards (Netflix) Crazier things have happened. Remember when Law & Order won in 1997 with a Lead Actor nomination and nothing else? Yeah, that makes House of Cards look damn near imposing.

Homeland (SHO) Season 4 puts Homland back in the nomination field. This reeks of Emmy voters not being vigilant enough to pick something new and instead picking something familiar. It is a former winner (2012). That should always be remembered.

Orange is the New Black (Netflix) It didn't win as a comedy with all the buzz imaginable last year. I wouldn't say that the drama field is more stacked than comedy. Orange doesn't stick out as much in the drama field though.

Biggest Snub: The Americans (FX) My favorite drama of last year was The Leftovers. If I'm picking something closer to an objective "best", I'd have to go with The Americans. It's absolutely a top tier show when it comes to the best combination of writing, directing, acting, production, wigs, etc. It might even be my personal pick to win if it was nominated. At the very least, I still can't figure out how Keri Russell and Mathew Rhys can't get noticed.

Outstanding Variety Talk Series

[My Favorite] Last Week Tonight (HBO) I'm probably wrong about this. No category is as entrenched, even with this Variety Talk/Sketch split. New shows don't come around often, nor do the winners change. I'm going bold and saying that the mix of Daily Show training and HBO will push Last Week Tonight to the win. It's not like The Daily Show and The Colbert Report don't already have a lot of wins, so a farewell win for either doesn't feel necessary.

The Colbert Report (Comedy Central) Here's where we get to the entrenched part. Ten consecutive nominations. It finally dethroned The Daily Show and claimed the last two wins.

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central) 15 consecutive nominations that contain a decade-long reign of dominance (2003-2012). It shouldn't affect voting, but I believe the final episode with Jon Stewart did air while the votes were still being cast. Some would argue that's how Breaking Bad got the first of its two Emmy wins for drama series.

Late Show with David Letterman (CBS) This is the first nomination for The Late Show since 2009. Up to that point though, the show had 16 nominations and 5 wins. As another show with a departing host, there's a small chance this gets a final win, but let's be honest, the return to the field is the win.

The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC) This is the second nomination in a row for Fallon's Tonight Show (and five if you also count his Late Night years). I don't see how it could possibly win, but it's more likely than the show below it.

Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC) It's been nominated the last four years, so there's that. I'll put it this way, if it wins and Jimmy Kimmel says that he didn't have a speech ready, I'll believe him.

Biggest Snub: Real Time With Bill Maher (HBO) This is just strange. Real Time was nominated for a decade before this year. They split up the category, which should leave more room for a nomination and it falls out of the field. Calling this is a snub isn't even a judgement call. It's statistically confusing.

Outstanding Limited Series

Olive Kitteridge (HBO) HBO wins this almost every other year with surprising consistency (2013, 2012, 2010, 2008, 2006, 2004, 2002, 2000, 1998). It lost last year, so it's HBO's turn. It helps that Olive Kitteridge is the kind of prestige project that is likely to win.

American Horror Story: Freak Show (FX) AHS hasn't ever won and this is the fewest nominations for any season year. It's still double-digits though and FX did manage to win this category last year. Then again, Fargo was at a much different level than this.

Wolf Hall (PBS) I don't know much about Wolf Hall, but it has a decent number of nominations and PBS has a history of success in this category (2011, 2009, 2005).

American Crime (ABC) I'm not sure what to make of this. It has some major supporters and it pulled in a lot of nominations. The simple fact is, the last time that a major network won this category, the Emmy Ceremony was being moved because of the 9/11 attacks.

The Honorable Woman (SundanceTV) Sundance hasn't proven that it can mount a successful Emmy campaign yet.

Biggest Snub: Gracepoint (FOX) I have no reason for picking this other than I forgot to watch it last Fall and I sort of regretted that.

Outstanding TV Movie
(This was already announced during the Creative Arts Emmys.  I already had this typed up though, so I'm including it.
 Bessie did, in fact win)

Bessie (HBO) With the exception of a combined Mini-Series/TV Movie category in 2011, HBO has won this every year since 2004 and for 18 of the last 23 years. Considering that it's half the nominees this year, it makes figure out why. Bessie is the major nominee from HBO so that makes it the front runner.

Nightingale (HBO) I mean, what else am I going to pick?

Hello Ladies: The Movie (HBO) Yeah. This was nominated. Can we say "thin field"?

Grace of Monaco (Lifetime) From sight-unseen Oscar player to Lifetime burn-off. I'm pretty sure this got nominated completely due to infamy.

Agatha Christie's Poirot: Curtain, Pairot's Last Case (Acorn TV) What the hell is Acorn TV? Does the TV Academy have enough evidence that the Limited Series and TV Movie categories should be combined again?

Killing Jesus (Nat Geo) At what point do they start picking fewer than 6 nominees here?

Biggest Snub: BoJack Horseman: Sabrina's Christmas Wish (Netflix) I've heard good things about BoJack Horseman so...I don't know. Something from Acorn TV was nominated. This is a shit storm.

Outstanding Reality-Competition Program

[My Favorite] The Amazing Race (CBS) The Amazing Race won this last year and 10 times total. It's been nominated every year since the category was created in 2003. I'm not picking against it as long as it's nominated.

The Voice (NBC) Former winner (2013). Fourth consecutive nomination. It's the most likely runner up.

Top Chef (Bravo) Former winner (2010). Ninth consecutive nomination.

Project Runway (Lifetime) 11 nominations in a row and never a win. It's probably too late now.

So You Think You Can Dance (FOX) This category sure doesn't like new nominees. This is the fifth year in a row that this has been nominated.

Dancing with the Stars (ABC) This has been on the air for 10 years? I wouldn't've guessed that. It's been nominated for all 10 of those seasons and never won.

Biggest Snub: RuPaul's Drag Race (Logo) Maybe one day the Emmys will discover Logo.

Variety Sketch Series

Inside Amy Schumer (Comedy Central) This is a fun new category. With nominations in writing, directing, lead actress, and guest actor, Inside Amy Schumer is the show to beat.

[My Favorite] Key & Peele (Comedy Central) The acting nomination for Key is nice and a second writing nomination in a row helps too. Really, this is the only viable nominee other than Inside Amy Schumer.

Saturday Night Live (NBC) I won't even begin to count the nominations over the last 40 years. IMDB tells me SNL has 45 wins. No one's going to question SNL's macro importance, but this individual season was not highly regarded. I thought it was fine, but no directing, writing, art direction, hair-styling, costume, etc. nominations isn't a good sign.

Portlandia (IFC) It's no longer the hip new show.

Drunk History (Comedy Central) Let's be honest, they just needed to fill the category. As much as some people like this, it's not the Emmy winning type.

Biggest Snub: Tosh.0 (Comedy Central) I get that Tosh is polarizing. The show is getting more elaborate with its sketches though and the writing is better than it's given credit for.

Emmy Picks: Lead Actor and Actress

Day four of Emmy picks. Yesterday was the supporting categories. Now it's time for the leads. As with the previous days, I've labeled a biggest snub and my favorite in each category and I organized the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win.

Creative Arts Emmy Picks
Emmy Picks: Writing
Emmy Picks: Directing
Emmy Picks: Supporting Actor and Actress

Outstanding Lead Actor - Comedy Series

Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent - Episode: "The Letting Go") (Netflix) It's surprising to realize that Tambor hasn't won an Emmy before. Not for The Larry Sanders Show. Not for Arrested Development. This is his seventh nomination and certain to be his first win. This is like "Claire Danes for the first season of Homeland"-certain. Part of that is helped by Jim Parsons, winner of the last two Lead Actor Emmys, four time Lead Actor Emmy winner, perennial nominee, somehow falling out of the final six.

[My Favorite] Louis CK (Louie - Episode: "Bobby's House") (FX) It's Louis' fifth nomination in a row. This'll be his first time losing to someone not on CBS. Emmy voters love him as a writer. It doesn't look like he's ever going to get a chance to break through for acting.

Matt LeBlanc (Episodes - Episode: "Episode Five") (SHO) He gets nominated every year for Episodes (This is his fourth). Perhaps the residual Friends love could push him over the edge finally.

Will Forte (The Last Man on Earth - Episode: "Alive In Tuscon") (FOX) He is really good in the pilot. A single episode is all it takes to win a surprise Emmy. It's Tambor's to lose, so this almost feels pointless.

Anthony Anderson (blackish - Episode: "Sex, lies, and Vasectomies") (ABC) It's a new show, so I don't know how the voters feel about him. He's been around forever. It's nice to see him recognized.

Don Cheadle (House of Lies - Episode: "It's a Box Inside a Box Inside a Box, Dipshit") (SHO) I had to stop watching this show a couple seasons ago because I got nothing from it. Cheadle is the best thing about it, but this isn't a great performance. It's just not. He's a four time nominee, but this is one of those cases where he really needed to win his first time to be considered for future wins.

William H. Macy (Shameless - Episode: "A Night to Remem...Wait, What?") (SHO) Yeah. The lead actor field is pretty thin. Emmy voters seem to believe that Showtime has all the good leading men. That's not true but whatever. Macy won't be winning, and it's a joke that he can get nominated twice yet Emmy Rossum can't crack the field.

Biggest Snub: Thomas Middleditch (Silicon Valley) (HBO) I think people need to see Thomas Middleditch in real life, because you can't appreciate how good he is in Silicon Valley without that contrast.

Outstanding Lead Actress - Comedy Series

Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep - Episode: "Election Night") (HBO) Four seasons. Four nominations. Three wins so far. There's not much working against Dreyfus. "Election Night", the season four finale, is a great submission episode, allowing her to display a range of emotions and has one beautiful, profane rant. Until she loses, I'm going to believe she's unstoppable (as she should be).

Amy Schumer (Inside Amy Schumer - Episode: "Cool With It") (Comedy Central) I'm looking back to 2011, when Melissa McCarthy rode a breakout success in Bridesmaids to an Emmy for Mike & Molly (apparently the submission was very Emmy-baity as well). Schumer is exploding right now, so it could be 2011 all over again.

Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie - Episode: "The Vows") (Netflix) Lily Tomlin is absolutely a legend by almost any measure. It certainly got her this nomination. She's a former Oscar nominee, and between producing, writing, and performing, she has collected 22 Emmy nominations over the years. All her five wins came from writing (1981, 1978, 1976, 1974) or Voice-Over performance (2013). She's hardly a lock to win an acting award.

[My Favorite] Amy Poehler (Parks and Rec - Episode: "One Last Ride") (NBC) She's been nominated six times for Parks & Rec. (8 consecutive times if you add her two SNL nominations). It's plain stupid that she hasn't won yet. There's a chance she gets a farewell win like Kyle Chandler in 2011 for the final season of Friday Night Lights.

Lisa Kudrow (The Comeback - Episode: "Valerie is Taken Seriously") (HBO) Oddly enough, Lisa Kudrow lost for season 1 of The Comeback to Julia-Louise Dreyfus too. She still has that 1998 win for Supporting Actress over Julia though.

Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie - Episode: "I Say a Little Prayer") (SHO) Despite being a former winner with six nominations in a row (not to mention 13 nominations total and four wins between three shows), Falco is an afterthought this year.

Biggest Snub: Emmy Rossum (Shameless) (SHO) She deserved a nomination in 2011. She deserved a nomination in 2012. She deserved a nomination in 2013. She deserved a nomination in 2014. She deserved a nomination in 2015. I don't know anyone who watched the show that would dispute this.

Outstanding Lead Actor - Drama Series

[My Favorite] Jon Hamm (Mad Men - Episode: "Person to Person") (AMC) Am I really doing this? Am I really putting myself through this false hope again? Mad Men is one of the greatest and most awarded dramas ever. It's tied for the most Emmy wins ever for a drama series (4). The number of other nominations collected is laughable. Yet, Jon Hamm has been nominated eight times for playing Don Draper without a win. He's been unfortunate enough to be great during the reign of Bryan Cranston. He saw public sentiment award Kyle Chandler. He's sat as Damian Lewis came out of nowhere to jump ahead of him. He lost to a Jeff Daniels speech for god's sake. Give this man an Emmy. He deserves to finally win one.

Kevin Spacey (House of Cards - Episode: "Chapter 32") (Netflix) After the obvious merit of Jon Hamm, it's hard to guess which way the voters are leaning. Spacey looked like a near lock in the first season but is 0 and 2 so far. Season 3 did nothing special. It still seems odd that he doesn't have an Emmy by now (not that I disagree with it).

Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul - Episode: "Pimento") (AMC) The Better Call Saul outpouring of love was surprising. Odenkirk certainly is better than I ever expected in it. It would be so deflating to see him beat a powerhouse performance like Hamm's.

Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom - Episode: "What Kind of Day Has It Been") (HBO) Daniels has been nominated for each season of The Newsroom and won for the first season. Sorkin is good at getting wins for his actors. The only explanation I have for not putting him higher is that I believe Emmy voters will think they already gave him his due.

Kyle Chandler (Bloodline - Episode: "Part 12") (Netflix) Another hard case to figure out. Was the 2011 FNL win completely a make-up call for missing him on that show for so long, or, now that they've recognized him, can they not look away?

Liev Shreiber (Ray Donovan - Episode: "Walk This Way") (SHO) This is a bad pick. Even the voters must realize this.

Biggest Snub: Matthew Rhys (The Americans) (FX) While the bench isn't as deep as it was 2 or 3 years ago, there's still a lot of great unrecognized performances in this category. Timothy Olyphant probably should've been here for the final season of Justified. I personally loved Justin Theroux and Aiden Young's work for The Leftovers and Rectify respectively (additionally, I do understand why neither gets noticed by any voting body). I have to go with Matthew Rhys of The Americans though. He had some of the toughest scenes to watch on TV this year. There's the tooth pulling scene. Or, anything involving his torment having to seduce a teenage girl the same age as his daughter. He's incredible.

Outstanding Lead Actress - Drama Series

Viola Davis (How to Get Away With Murder - Episode: "Freakin' Whack-a-Mole") (ABC) I just don't know. Last year's winner is gone. The winner before that (Danes) looks weak. Henson and Davis both barreled into the field this season. Davis isn't truly the lead on her show frommy understanding. She's just the highest profile actress on it. Then again, there's Glen Close's wins for Damages which could be argued (by me) were for a supporting performance and Davis only needs one strong episode to win the award.

Taraji P. Henson (Empire - Episode: "Pilot") (FOX) Henson has the zeitgeist more than anyone else on the list. The thing is, that doesn't often translate into a win. Remember when Kerry Washington got nominated in 2013 for a popular soapy drama? Yeah, that didn't really pan out, did it?

Claire Danes (Homeland - Episode: "From A to B and Back Again") (SHO)  She gets nominated every year for Homeland and should. She didn't win last year and the luster has worn off Homeland. Then again, she's a two time winner who always gets a lot to do on her show, which is having a slight Emmy comeback this year.

[My Favorite] Elisabeth Moss (Mad Men - Episode: "Person to Person") (AMC) Moss has 6 nominations for playing Peggy Olsen as both a Lead and a Supporting Actress and it hasn't gotten her anything yet. The Emmy voters simply don't like voting for Mad Men actors once it's time to give out awards. Then again, this category is known for rewarding patience sometimes. Such was the case with Kyra Sedgewick in 2010, a few season removed from when she was being considered a real player for the award. Could a farewell win be coming to Moss?

Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black - Episode: "Certain Agony of the Battlefield") (BBC America) It's hard to believe Emmy voters finally noticed what Tatiana Maslany has been doing for three season now. Sadly, being on a SciFi show makes it just as hard to win no matter how good she is. The voters don't respond well to this genre at all. There's no history of someone winning for something like this (at least nothing recent). Then again, as with Clare Danes in 2012 or several of Edie Falco's wins for The Sopranos, they can recognize when someone is absolutely the best person in the field, which I'd say Maslany is.

Robin Wright (House of Cards - Episode: "Chapter 32") (Netflix) This is Wright's third nomination, and like Spacey, you wonder if she couldn't win already, is it maybe not in the cards for her? Then again, this is her meatiest season yet. She picked the wrong episode (again!) if she wants to win.

Biggest Snub: Keri Russell (The Americans) (FX) Maslany finally got nominated. Rossum got moved to being snubbed in the comedy field. That means it's Russell's turn. She's great. It's stupid that she's not nominated.

Outstanding Lead Actor - Limited Series/TV Movie

Timothy Hutton (American Crime) (ABC) In general, they like to give this to movie stars, preferably legends (Michael Douglas - 2013, Kevin Costner - 2012, Al Pacino - 2010). Hutton isn't quite a movie star, but he has been around for a while, and like those other three men, has an Oscar.

David Oyelowo (Nightingale) (HBO) Despite doing it last year with Benedict Cumberbatch, this category isn't keen on going to up-and-comers (also, that was Cumberbatch's third nomination in a row). In fact, before him, I'm not sure who the last "young guy" winner for this was. I don't know anything about this performance. I'm banking on HBO's strong history in the category and it's easier to sell the nominee who is the overall lead in his movie than only the male lead (See: Jenkins, Richard).

Richard Jenkins (Olive Kitteridge) (HBO) Jenkins is an actor who has worked a lot. Despite that, he only has this and an Oscar nomination to his name. There's no history of this award going to well respected actors just for being well respected (It's pretty much Brendan Gleeson in 2009 and that's it). Also, HBO has much more luck getting the TV Movie actors wins rather than their Mini-Series actors.

Mark Rylance (Wolf Hall) (PBS) I know nothing about Wolf Hall at all. I could look foolish for dismissing it.

Adrien Brody (Houdini) (History) He's also in the "won on Oscar" crowd, so I don't want to count him out entirely. He's a little young though and Houdini was a quickly dismissed movie. Then again, Barry Pepper's win for The Kennedeys in 2011 wasn't widely predicted either.

Ricky Gervais (Derek Special) (Netflix) He has random pockets of awards attention from the Emmys. This would be oddly out of place though.

Biggest Snub: Kiefer Sutherland (24: Live Another Day) (FOX) I don't have a good reason for calling this a snub. There's not a lot of good leftover nominees and he's a former Emmy favorite. 

Outstanding Lead Actress - Limited Series/TV Movie

Frances McDormand (Olive Kitteridge) (HBO) Let's go through the list of things the Emmy voters like in this category: Laura Linney, Helen Mirren, Jessica Lange, and HBO performances. Obviously, Frances McDormand is none of those women, but she is the star of an HBO Mini-Series. An actress doing something for HBO has won this award 9 of the last 12 years. HBO hasn't won this the last two years though. It's about time for a return, and McDormand is highly credentialed to win.

Jessica Lange (American Horror Story: Freak Show) (FX) Jessica Lange was one of those four things I said voters like here. As long as she's nominated, she's in the top two in my predictions.

Queen Latifah (Bessie) (HBO) It's a big performance on a network that knows how to play the awards game.

Emma Thompson (Sweeny Todd) (PBS) Never dismiss Emma Thompson. 1) She's great. 2) She's always great. 3) I want her to be my friend.

Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Honorable Woman) (SundanceTV) I just want to point out that this category has all the female cast members of Stranger Than Fiction. This is my new FAVORITE CATEGORY EVER!

Felicity Huffman (American Crime) (ABC) I could be so wrong about this, but it really feels like American Crime got nominated by accident.

Biggest Snub: Anna Gunn (Gracepoint) (FOX) I like Anna Gunn and I hope her Emmy love won't be limited to her Breaking Bad work.

Emmy Picks: Supporting Actor and Actress

You know the drill by now. I'm going through all the supporting categories. Each nominee is ordered from who I think is most to least likely to win. I've also included my personal favorite in each category and who I find to be the most inexcusable snub.

Creative Arts Emmy Picks
Emmy Picks: Writing
Emmy Picks: Directing

Outstanding Supporting Actor - Comedy Series

Tony Hale (Veep - Episode: "East Wing") (HBO) He won this in 2013. This is his third nomination in a row. His submission episode has an excellent scene between him and Julia-Louise Dreyfus. Modern Family looks weak. All signs point to some Tony Hale love.

Ty Burrell (Modern Family - Episode: "Crying Out Loud") (ABC) I'd be stupid to think even if Modern Family is ready for a tumble, that Ty Burrell is any less likely to win. He has six consecutive nominations and two wins, including last year. I don't remember his submission episode well, but all it needs is for him to have one big comedic beat and one serious discussion with one of the kids for him to lock this up. He's still the one cast member I'd be happy to keep seeing nominated from Modern Family these days.

Keegan-Michael Key (Key & Peele - Episode: "Sex Detective") (Comedy Central) It's only his first nomination, but sometimes that's the hardest part. He's on a two man show, has guested on nearly every show by now, and gets a ton of opportunities to play big in a way that voters respond to. I wouldn't be surprised or disappointed if he won.

[My Favorite] Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine Nine - Episode: "The Mole") (FOX) Braugher is an Emmy favorite. He has 9 career nomination and 2 wins across a variety of categories (Drama, Limited Series, Comedy, Lead, Supporting). This is his second nomination for playing Captain Holt. If Brooklyn Nine Nine was any better received by the Emmy voter overall, I'd say he had a better chance to win.

Adam Driver (Girls - Episode: "Close-Up") (HBO) He's the last remnant of Emmy love for Girls. This is his third nomination in a row. His episode isn't particularly special though. If he hasn't won yet, this doesn't look like the year to change it.

Tituss Burgess (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt - Episode: "Kimmy Goes to School!") (Netflix) He's big and broad in the way the Emmys love and I like him in his submission episode. I look back to 30 Rock on this. If Tracy Morgan and Jane Krakowski couldn't find a way to win despite the broad support for the show, what chance does Burgess have?

Biggest Snub: Nick Offerman (Parks and Rec) (NBC) The Emmys are stupid. It makes no sense that Offerman is a zero-time nominee for playing Ron Swanson, one of the best TV characters of the last decade.

Outstanding Supporting Actress - Comedy Series

Allison Janney (Mom - Episode: "Dropped Soap and a Big Guy on a Throne") (CBS) If Emmy voters love Andre Braugher, I don't even know the word that describes quite how they feel about Allison Janney. She was a double winner last year (Supporting Actress - Mom, Guest Actress - Masters of Sex), could've been this year too, and won supporting and lead actress on The West Wing four of the six times she was nominated. I don't watch Mom, but I am comfortable assuming that she deserves the win.

Gaby Hoffman (Transparent - Episode: "Rollin") (Netflix) She's a first time nominee this year with double nominations in Transparent (Supporting) and Girls (Guest). I haven't been able to watch Transparent yet. The support is pretty broad. It wouldn't be out of character for Emmy voters, instead of giving awards to shows/people that have been patiently waiting as they fell out of love with Modern Family to award something/one new.

[My Favorite] Anna Chlimsky (Veep - Episode: "Convention") (HBO) She's been nominated the last three years. I keep waiting for the season when a groundswell of support for Veep raises everyone around it to get her the award. She deserves one at some point. Convention is a solid episode for her.

Julie Bown (Modern Family - Episode: "Valentine's Day 4: Twisted Sister") (ABC) She's a six time nominee for Modern Family and a two time winner (2011 & 2012). I think the competition is too stiff and the support for the show is too low. However, for all all I know, the lack of nominations could galvanize the fans among the voters and push her through to a victory.

Jane Krakowski (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt - Episode: "Kimmy Gets a Job!") (Netflix) She couldn't win for virtually the same role on 30 Rock and she had four tries at that.

Kate McKinnon (SNL - Episode: "Host: Taraji P. Henson") (NBC) Emmy voters love voting for SNL cast members in the nomination phase (This is McKinnon's second). They have yet to give any of them a win. McKinnon would be worthy of it.

Mayim Bialik (The Big Bang Theory - Episode: "The Prom Equivalency") (CBS) This is Bialik's fourth consecutive nomination, outlasting even the mighty Jim Parsons as the lone major nomination for The Big Bang Theory. I have the feeling that if she couldn't win this when the show had broader support, it's not likely she will now. Crazier things have happened though. Remember when Kyra Sedgewick won for The Closer in 2010, well past that show's prime?

Niecy Nice (Getting On - Episode: "The 7th Annual Christmas Card Competition") This is such a random nomination, I almost think I need to give it more consideration for the complete oddity of it. Most people met this with puzzlement, not complaints that she was nominated. I haven't seen the show, so I can't say.

Biggest Snub: Aubrey Plaza (Parks and Rec) (NBC) I actually had trouble with this. While there's a lot of people who deserve to be recognized, few of them had their best seasons this year. I settled on Plaza though because this was the final season of Parks and Recreation, it was a great season, and Plaza did get a good story arc.

Outstanding Supporting Actor - Drama Series

[My Favorite] Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul - Episode: "Five-O") (AMC) First of all, "Five-O" is a great submission episode. That cannot be ignored when considering Emmy voting. Banks is a respected guy in the industry. He has previous nominations for Breaking Bad and Wiseguy. Now that we've seen the level of Better Call Saul support in the nomination phase, it's very likely that Banks will get a trophy.

Ben Mendelsohn (Bloodline - Episode: "Part 12") (Netflix) This is Mendelsohn's first awards attention of any sort. Bloodline is very similar to Damages which got Glen Close a couple Emmys and Željko Ivanek one back in 2008. He may be the frontrunner the more I think about it.

Peter Dinklidge (Game of Thrones - Episode: "Hardhome") (HBO) Never count out a five time nominee and former winner (2011). Game of Thrones still has a lot of fans and Dinklidge is still a favorite on the show.

Jim Carter (Downton Abbey - Episode: "A Moorland Holiaday") (PBS) He's a four time nominee and Downton Abbey keeps getting Outstanding Drama love. How many more dice rolls will it take before he gets a random win?

Michael Kelly (House of Cards - Episode: "Chapter 27") (Netflix) This reminds me of 2013, when Bobby Cannavale randomly won this award. Even though this is Kelly's first nomination, once it's down to six people, anything could happen. I saw this season though, and as good as Kelly was, I wouldn't put him in a final six.

Alan Cumming (The Good Wife - "Undisclosed Recipients") (CBS) Cumming returns to the field after three years off. I get the feeling that he barely made the cut and the fact that he's lost here before (to Dinkidge) tells me that it's not one of those cases where getting the nomination is the biggest obstacle between him and victory.

Biggest Snub: Vincent D'Onofrio (Marvel's Daredevil) (Netflix) There are many, many people I could've picked here. I went with D'Onofrio because he was a force of nature on Daredevil. He perfectly understood the tone of the series and played Fisk in a way that was real to that world, which is harder than it looks.

Outstanding Supporting Actress - Drama Series

Lena Headey (Game of Thrones - Episode: "Mother's Mercy") (HBO) This is an odd case where someone could win an Emmy for a scene shot with a body double. For Cersei's walk of shame, it was Headey's head put on another woman's body (Headey was pregnant at the time, I believe. She's been plenty willing to get naked in the past). This is Headey's second nomination in a row. Without Anna Gunn around, there isn't a single person who has won before or from a new show. It's anyone's to win.

Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones - Episode: "The Dance of Dragons") (HBO) Clarke returns to the field after getting her first nomination in 2013. I'd be tempted to call her the front runner if Terminator Genisys was more of a hit (that certainly helped Melissa McCarthy in 2011). Sadly, her profile isn't any higher than it was in May (although I thought she was quite good in Genisys). Her submission episode is a fine one, but nothing dazzling. This just feels like the year for a Game of Thrones actress to win. I don't have a hard reason for it.

[My Favorite] Christina Hendricks (Mad Men - Episode: "Lost Horizon") (AMC) She's a six time (consecutive) nominee with a fantastic submission episode. The only thing stopping me from calling her a lock is the whole "No Mad Men actor has ever won an Emmy" thing.

Christine Baranski (The Good Wife - Episode: "Loser Edit") (CBS) You know, people always say that Emmy voters love Christine Baranski. Here's the thing. That's true, but it's not. This is her sixth consecutive nomination for The Good Wife and she has 14  nominations since 1995. She only has one win though and that was her first nomination for Cybil. So, they love nominating her. They don't pick her to win.

Uzo Aduba (Orange is the New Black - Episode: "Hugs Can Be Deceiving") (Netflix) She won Guest Actress in a comedy last year. This is an unprecedented nomination change. That makes her a wild card. When it comes down to it though, she doesn't have enough to do in season 2 to earn a win.

Joanne Froggatt (Downton Abbey - Episode: "Episode Eight") (PBS) She's a three-time nominee. Downton Abbey isn't gaining momentum. I don't see it happening for her.

Biggest Snub: Carrie Coon (The Leftovers) (HBO) I'll go one step further. Submission episode: "Guest". There is no excuse for her to not be nominated and win. I defy anyone who watched The Leftovers (and "Guest" in particular) to tell me she didn't deserve this over any of the six nominees.

Outstanding Supporting Actor - Limited Series/TV Movie

Billy Murray (Olive Kitteridge - Episode: "Security") (HBO) It's Bill Murray. It doesn't matter that his last Emmy recognition was while he was on staff for SNL. It's Bill Murray.

Damian Lewis (Wolf Hall - Episode: "Crows") (PBS) Lewis formerly won Lead Actor in a Drama for Homeland in 2012. I don't know much about his role in Wolf Hall. Looking at the rest of the group, I have to like his odds though.

Michael Kenneth Williams (Bessie) (HBO) Omar's coming. It's Williams' first Emmy nomination ever. I could see him winning this as a makeup call for being missed on The Wire and Boardwalk Empire.

Denis O'Hare (American Horror Story: Freak Show - Episode: "Pink Cupcakes") (FX) He's been nominated for an AHS season before (2012). That's about all I can say.

Richard Cabral (American Crime - Episode: "Episode Ten") (ABC) First nomination ever and on a show that is benefiting greatly from the reduced competition of the limited series field.

Finn Wittrock (American Horror Story: Freak Show - Episode: "Bullseye") (FX) They needed six people for the category. Wittrock is as good as anyone.

Biggest Snub: Nick Nolte (Gracepoint) (FOX) His only Emmy nomination was way back in 1976 for Limited Series. Since then, there's been 3 Oscar nominations. If Gracepoint had any traction at all, Nolte would be nominated and threatening to win.

Outstanding Supporting Actress - Limited Series/TV Movie

Kathy Bates (American Horror Story: Freak Show - Episode: "Edward Mordrake, Part 1") (FX) She's the reigning winner for her work on last year's AHS. She only has one other Emmy win (Guest Actress in a Comedy for Two and a Half Men in 2012), but she's collected 12 acting nominations total for a variety of projects. Emmy love runs deep. Oh, and don't think her Oscar goes unnoticed either.

Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story: Freak Show - Episode: "Tupperware Party Massacre") (FX) Her third nomination for AHS in a row and fourth in a row in this category including her role in Game Change back in 2012. After enough nominations, the odds have to start working in her favor eventually (just ask Jon Cryer).

Angela Bassett (American Horror Story: Freak Show - Episode: "Show Stoppers") (FX) 2nd nomination for AHS. Without knowing what anyone did in any of their submission episodes, I'm basing this entirely off past Emmy attention.

Mo'Nique (Bessie) (HBO) She has an Oscar win and that's about it. This movie is Queen Latifah's, so I'm assuming there's not enough left over for anyone else.

Zoe Kazan (Olive Kitteridge - Episode: "Pharmacy") I guess this first time nominee could win.

Regina King (American Crime - Episode: "Episode Four") (ABC) Look, I would never want to take away from her work in Miss Congeniality 2 or Legally Blonde 2, but I don't expect that to carry over to an Emmy.

Biggest Snub: Rosemarie DeWitt (Olive Kitteridge) (HBO) I like Rosemarie DeWitt. I don't know if she does work here that's worthy of a nomination. It's a thin field. Liking her in general is enough to call this a snub.

Emmy Picks: Directing

Next up in my week of predictions, the directing awards. Like before, I've arranged the nominees from what I believe to be most to least likely to win. I also marked my personal favorite of the nominees and the biggest snub I could find.

Creative Arts Emmy Picks
Emmy Picks: Writing

Outstanding Directing - Comedy Series

Jill Soloway (Transparent - Episode: "Best New Girl") (Amazon) Transparent is going to win somewhere. I'm just not sure where. This category is in love with pilots. A pilot won from 2004-08 and again in 2010. A string of Modern Family dominance (oddly, that show's pilot should've won in 2010 and didn't) for the past four years has derailed that trend. With no Modern Family episode nominated this year, it's time to start pilot hunting.

[My Favorite] Phil Lord, Christopher Miller (The Last Man on Earth - Episode: "Alive in Tuscon (Pilot)") (FOX) This was an absolutely spectacular pilot. The series was inconsistent, but the pilot was virtually flawless. The direction was its biggest strength too. Nearly every shot was rich with detail and stayed visually interesting despite being only Will Forte the majority of the time. It helps that Lord and Miller are A-list Hollywood directors who are collecting $100 million box office hits like Pokemon.

Armando Iannucci (Veep - Episode: "Testimony") (HBO) Veep could win this if it is a runaway hit now that Modern Family looks weak. The fact that this is the first nomination in four seasons for direction is a bad sign. This was an inventive episode that completely came together in the direction and editing.

Louis C.K. (Louie - Episode: "Sleepover") (FX) This is Louis' fourth straight nomination, so he's clearly liked. I think the Emmy voters think of him as a writer first, actor second, and director third. Until he can get an acting win, I don't see him winning this.

Mike Judge (Silicon Valley - "Sand Hill Shuffle") (HBO) It's the second year in a row that Silicon Valley is nominated. There's love from the Emmy voters. There's no urgency to it. This whole category is a virtual mystery without a single Modern Family nomination after four wins though, so who knows.

Biggest Snub: Parks and Recreation (Episode: "The Johnny Karate Super Awesome Musical Explosion Show") (NBC) Like with writing, I could've gone with the series finale "One Last Ride". I prefer the direction of this one due to the show-in-a-show aspect. It's shot to feel like an actual cable access show without losing the things that makes it Parks and Recreation.

Outstanding Directing - Drama Series

Steven Soderbergh (The Knick - Episode: "Method and Madness") (Cinemax) To my knowledge, the last Oscar winner to be nominated (Scorsese for Boardwalk Empire in 2011) won this. The last Oscar nominee (David Fincher for House of Cards in 2013) won. Top tier directors who "lower themselves" to do TV work are generally rewarded for it.

Tim Van Patten (Boardwalk Empire - Episode: "Eldorado") (HBO) It's the fifth consecutive year that Boardwalk Empire has received at least one nomination here. It's a former winner (2011, 2012). Van Patten won the 2012 award. He has 11 Emmy nominations total since 2001, which is very impressive. Oh yeah, and this is the series finale.

David Nutter (Game of Thrones - Episode: "Mother's Mercy") (HBO) Game of Thrones has only been nominated twice before this year (2011 and 2014), now pulling double nominations. I'm not sure what to make of that. Of the two episodes, this one has the slightly more credentialed director. Nutter has 3 previous Emmy nominations, including a win for Band of Brothers back in 2002.

[My Favorite] Jeremy Podeswa (Game of Thrones - Episode: "Unbowed, Unbent, Unbroken") (HBO) Podeswa is no slouch when it comes to Emmy love though. This is his third nomination; his first for Game of Thrones. It's hard to pick one episode over the other, but neither seems likely to win.

Lesli Linka Glatter (Homeland - Episode: "From A to B and Back Again") (SHO) Homeland returns after falling out of the category last year. This is Glatter's third nomination (Mad Men in 2010, Homeland in 2013). She hasn't won yet and Homeland's nomination this year strikes me more as Emmy voters lacking creativity than really standing a chance.

Biggest Snub: Jodie Foster (Orange is the New Black - Episode: "Thirsty Bird") (Netflix) Foster couldn't get a win when nominated last year as a comedy, which was surprising. This snub is less so. Still, even though I didn't like "Thirsty Bird", it was a wonderfully made episode. It constantly keeps the viewer in a haze, capturing Piper's complete confusion with the situation.

Outstanding Directing - Limited Series/TV Movie

Olive Kitteridge (HBO) Almost none of the directors in this category have a history with the Emmys, so this gets a little hard. Olive Kitteridge is one of the most nominated programs this year and the directory does have an Oscar nomination (Original Screenplay for the 2010 film The Kids Are All Right). That's enough for me to call this the favorite.

Bessie (HBO) Never underestimate the power of an HBO movie with a director/writer nominee combo.

American Horror Story: Freak Show (Episode: "Monsters Among Us") (FX) Ryan Murphy has the most Emmy history of this group with a win for directing the Glee pilot in 2010. American Horror Story has never been dominant on Emmy night despite its many nominations. It would be surprising if that changed now.

Wolf Hall (PBS) This is the first of three directors being nominated for the first time and the only thing I have to go off is the prestige of the production. PBS has more prestige than those below it and a long line of Emmy success.

The Honorable Woman (Sundance) This is another directory/writer nominee combo.

Houdini (History) The History Channel got some attention a couple years ago with the Hatfields and McCoys, so it wouldn't be crazy to think this could sneak in a win.
The Missing (Starz) I'm not sure Starz has ever been a significant player in the Limited Series/TV Movie field. At best, it gets nominations to fill a shallow field.

Biggest Snub: Gracepoint: Episode: "Episode 10" (FOX) This is another year with a shallow field. I heard good things about Gracepoint. It would've been a more interesting pick than some of these others.

Outstanding Directing - Variety Special
(This was already announced during the Creative Arts Emmys. I already has this typed up though, so I'm including it. The SNL 40th Anniversary special won, so don't I feel stupid)

[My Favorite] 68th Annual Tony Awards (CBS) It won in 2014 and 2012. Nominated in 2011 and 2010. As long as it's nominated, I'm calling it the favorite.

The Kennedy Center Honors (CBS) It won in 2013 when the Tonys were somehow not nominated.

Annie Lennox: Nostaligia Live in Concert (PBS) I have to imagine a concert has a good chance to win.

Saturday Night Live 40th Anniversary Special (NBC) The 25th anniversary special was nominated too but didn't win.

The Oscars (ABC) It's been nominated at least the past four years (before that, category confusion gets messy). No wins...for a reason.

Biggest Snub: Bill Maher: Live From D.C. (HBO) I'm a sucker for Live TV.

Outstanding Directing - Variety Series

[My Favorite] Inside Amy Schumer - Episode: "12 Angry Men Inside Amy Schumer" (Comedy Central) This is a tough call (See my "Biggest Snub" for why). Even though the show has never been nominated here before, I have to go with it for two reasons: 1) It's a great way to get some love to Amy Schumer's show in a year when it feels like there could be a love-fest and 2) anyone who has see 12 Angry Men has to appreciate how well done this is.

Late Show with David Letterman (CBS) I forget the episode title/number, but this is for Dave's final show. I can easily see a voter watching it, then voting for it out of pure sentiment. The only thing hurting it it that after four consecutive nominations from 2009-2012, it fell out of the field until this year.

The Colbert Report (Comedy Central) I'm not sure which episode was used. What I do know is that when The Colbert Report wants to be ambitious, it is very ambitious. Since this category was created in 2009, The Colbert Report has been nominated every year.

The Daily Show (Comedy Central) The Daily Show has also been nominated every year from 2009 to now without a win.

The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC) This entered the field last year. It just looks like there's four better arguments to win than The Tonight Show's.

Biggest Snub: Saturday Night Live (NBC) This is baffling. SNL has won this the last five years and it was completely snubbed. I've watched the past few seasons and this was no better or worse a year. I'm not sure what happened.

Movie Reaction: The Visit

Formula: (Paranormal Activity * The Village) - Cocoon

Why I Saw It: Nothing new this week was very enticing and I didn't want to see an older movie for a second weekend in a row. Finally, this matched the window of time I gave myself to see something.

Cast: There's aren't many recognizable faces. Olivia DeJonge and Ex Oxenbould play the kids. Kathryn Hahn plays the mom. Deanna Dunagan and Peter McRobbie play the grandparents.

Plot: Two kids, one an aspiring filmmaker (DeJonge), the other a free styling rapper (Oxenbould), go to visit their estranged grandparents for a week while their mother goes on a cruise. It doesn't take long before strange things start to happen.

Thoughts:
It's really hard to like a movie when you hate the lead characters as much as I did. Both of the kids were insufferable. The girl was pretentious. Shaymalan used her desire to be a filmmaker as the conceit for the found footage style. That doesn't necessitate how annoying she was about it. I get it. She's a film nerd. That doesn't mean every other line has to read like she just read a book of film snob references. The boy wasn't much better. He got numerous opportunities to show off his free styling rhymes. He got a couple other quirks like being a germaphobe [when it's convenient for the story]. They both annoyed me to no end and killed the stakes of the movie.
I love the found footage style when it's done well. When there's a need for it or something is added to the movie by the use of it, I'm a big fan. Even if it's not required in the strictest sense, I like it as long as it's used plausibly. This movie bends over backwards to give a reason for the structure, which - whatever - it at least explains it and shoots it well enough. And, saying that this is a movie made by a teenager really forgives just about any amateurism in Shaymalan's work, so that's a nifty cover-up.
The movie has an odd number of attempts at humor that I'm not sure what to make of. With the found footage style, there aren't many attempts to make full movies. It's pretty much one tone (in most cases, scary) and that's it. My best guess is that the jokes in The Visit are meant to throw the audience off balance. Instead, it's more of a distraction. Then again, the jokes got an audience reaction when I saw it, so I guess that means they were a success. I didn't care for them though. It took me out of the mood entirely. It undercut the scares rather than lowering my defense for them.
Enough of the scares are solid. Mostly, it's the grandmother crawling on all fours a lot and being creepy at night. The grandpa's a little paranoid, which makes for some tense moments. My god, though, that story coasts on defenses like "They're old" or "That's just how old people are" for all sorts of odd behavior far too often.

Elephant in the Room: What's the twist? It's an M. Night Shaymalan movie, so of course there's a twist. It's weird that he's falling back to doing twists after he's worked so hard to get away from them with his last couple movies. This one is a pretty decent twist, although it requires a lot of contortions to make plausible.

To Sum Things Up:
Like most M. Night Shaymalan movies, The Visit is good for a single viewing. Once you get the twist, it's best not to think about the plotting required to pull it off. The scares are effective at times. It's all built around such unlikable leads though that the rest doesn't matter. There's much better horror out there.

Verdict (?): Weakly Recommend

Emmy Picks: Writing

It's time again for the Emmys. I recently finished my Emmy B-Team project. Now it's time to get to actually making my picks. Like every year, I've ordered each category by what I think is most to least likely to win along with my reasoning. In addition to that, I've listed my favorite nominee and what I found to be the biggest snub. Hopefully, I'll do alright. And we begin with the writing awards.

Creative Arts Emmy Picks
A quick aside for me to look back on the Creative Arts Emmys which were on Saturday. Of the 27 categories I made prediction for. I was right only 11 times and the nominee I most preferred only win 4 times. No technical awards are indicative of anything to come for the main ceremony, so I won't bother tracking any of that. The only egregious

Outstanding Writing - Comedy Series

Louis C.K. (Louie - Episode: "Bobby's House") (FX) Louie has been nominated every season it's been on. It won in 2014 and 2012. Since 2008, the only shows to win here have been Louie, 30 Rock, and Modern Family. There's not a lot a variety.

Jill Soloway (Transparent - Episode: "Pilot") (Amazon) As the new show on the list, it's hard to predict how it will do. Jill Solloway's only credits before this year were for producing, so there's no history of Emmy love for her writing. There's such a broad level of support for this show (and I understand that the pilot is strong) that I have to assume it has good odds to win here.

[My Favorite] Armando Iannucci, Simon Blackwell, Tony Roche (Veep - Episode: "Election Night") (HBO) This is the second year in a row that an Iannucci (and others) script was nominated. Veep seems to be gaining momentum and the next thing that should be recognized after Julia-Louise Dreyfus is certainly the writing.

Alec Berg (Silicon Valley - Episode: "Two Days Of The Condor") (HBO) Silicon Valley got a nomination last year too. I can see this episode as being more Emmy friendly than last year's. It still looks like a long shot.

David Crane, Jeffrey Klarik (Episodes - Episode: "Episode 409") (SHO) Crane and Klarik have been nominated every available season and have yet to win. The show isn't gaining traction. The only way this wins is by everything else falling through the cracks.

Will Forte (The Last Man on Earth - Episode: "Alive in Tuscon (Pilot)") (FOX) This is a great pilot, however I fear that it will be looked at more as a director's showcase.

Biggest Snub: Michael Schur (Parks and Recreation - Episode: "Leslie and Ron") (NBC) The show somehow got 2 writing nominations in 2012. That's it. I could pick nearly any episode submitted from this season as a legitimate snub, including the satisfying finale "One Last Ride". I'm going bottle episode though. It filled in story gaps, dealt with Leslie and Ron's relationship, and still managed to be outrageously funny.

Outstanding Writing - Drama Series

[My Favorite] Matthew Weiner (Mad Men - Episode: "Person to Person") (AMC) There's no Breaking Bad, Homeland, or Friday Night Lights here, so there's a couple ways to go. This category is where voters are most likely to award a show for its farewell season (Breaking Bad 2014, FNL 2011). Luckily, one the the best written dramas of all time, with three wins here already (and 15 nominations) just happens to be in its final season. That makes it a lock, right?

Semi Chellas, Matthew Weiner (Mad Men - Episode: "Lost Horizon") (AMC) This specific combination of writers has never won for Mad Men but it's really is a coin toss deciding which one wins.

Gordon Smith (Better Call Saul - Episode: "Five-O") (AMC) Certainly I'd credit "Five-O" for its acting and direction first. There's a good amount of carry over love for Breaking Bad though. I could see this being like a James Spader situation when he moved from The Practice to Boston Legal, getting back to back wins (07 & 08).

Joshua Brand (The Americans - Episode: "Do Mail Robots Dream of Electric Sheep?") (FX) This is the first nomination for The Americans. Brand though, is a seasoned Emmy veteran. He collected nominations and a couple wins for his work writing and producing for I'll Fly Away and Northern Exposure in the 90s. Shows with one-off nominations don't normally win, although House's win for "Three Stories" in 2005 (the only time it was ever nominated) shows that it can happen if the episode is good enough.

D.B. Weiss (Game of Thrones - Episode: "Mother's Mercy") (HBO) Fourth nomination in five season and the third straight. Game of Thrones is still a major player. This category really could go to any of the nominees and not be an upset. It's a good group.

Biggest Snub: Damon Lindelof & Tom Perrotta (The Leftovers - Episode: "Pilot") (HBO) I could go with any number of episodes from this amazing season. I settled on the first because it effectively explains the world and characters in an hour while leaving enough on the side to appreciate in repeat viewings.

Outstanding Writing - Limited Series/TV Movie

Olive Kitteridge (HBO) There's a few screenwriters and one of them has a bunch of Emmy nominations and a win in there. Since this category isn't generally for ongoing series, it's tough to gauge strength. This doesn't go to HBO as often as I'd expect. I still think Olive Kitteridge is going to do very well for itself.

Bessie (HBO) This is the first year of Emmy nominations for any of the screenwriters. This is an accessible movie in the way that former HBO winners Game Change (2012), You Don't Know Jack (2010), and The Girl In the Cafe (2006) were.

Wolf Hall (PBS) This could easily surprise me. PBS does have a history of winning this award. The last two were for ongoing series masquerading as limited series or movies (Sherlock in 2014 and Downton Abbey in 2011). I don't believe Wolf Hall is ongoing. Then again, I don't know anything about it, which is even more troubling.

American Crime - "Episode One" (ABC) John Ridley won an Oscar for writing 12 Years a Slave just last year. That won't be forgotten.

Hello Ladies: The Movie (HBO) Stephen Merchant has nominations for his work on Extras and the British Office Christmas Special. The other two screenwriters share a nomination for The Office in 2008. There's aren't any wins to be found yet and that's the troubling part for this largely forgotten movie of a largely forgotten series.

The Honorable Woman (Sundance) First nominations for the writer/director.
Biggest Snub: Derek Special (Netflix) I haven't seen Derek, so I don't know if this is any good. It would be fun to see Ricky Gervais and Stephen Merchant go head to head though.

Outstanding Writing - Variety Special
(This was already announced during the Creative Arts Emmys. I already has this typed up though, so I'm including it Louis C.K.: Live at the Comedy Store did, in fact win)

[My Favorite] Louis C.K.: Live at the Comedy Store (FX) A Louis C.K. special won in 2013 and 2012. A Sarah Silverman special won last year. It's hard seeing how this doesn't win.

Mel Brooks Live At The Geffen (HBO) Mel Brooks is a legend and you should never count him out. One Man Shows do not fare as well here as you'd expect though.

The 72nd Annual Golden Globe Awards (NBC) The writing staff includes names like Tina Fey, Amy Poehler, Robert Carlock, and Seth Meyers, and, more than that, the show is the rare awards show that was praised for its writing.

Saturday Night Live 40th Anniversary Special (NBC) The 25th Anniversary Special didn't manage to get nominated. I don't see why this, which was actually a pretty big mess, should be either.

Key & Peele Super Bowl Special (Comedy Central) It's nice to see all the nominations for Key & Peele. This is where I'd be most surprised to see it pay off.

Biggest Snub: Jim Jeffries: BARE (Netflix) I like stand up. It was between this and Bill Burr's. This felt more written (in a good way), so I went with it.

Writing - Variety Series

[My Favorite] Last Week Tonight (HBO) John Oliver finally answers the question "What would it be like if The Daily Show could spend more time on things?". The Answer is "Amazing". With Stewart and Colbert gone for their shows after this year, it seems like a great time to pick a new anointed one.

The Colbert Report (Comedy Central) This has won the last two years and before that, it was trading off with The Daily Show every year. Perhaps it will get a goodbye win.

The Daily Show (Comedy Central) Colbert has had their number the last couple years. It's still a perennial nominee. Even though the final episodes don't count toward this voting period, I could see it swaying the voters.

Key & Peele (Comedy Central) I'd be stunned if one of the top three don't win. Key & Peele would be deserving though and they were nominated here last year.

Inside Amy Schumer (Comedy Central) This was nominated here last year too. I think there's a good chance that Amy Schumer's star turn in the last few months will help her win somewhere surprising. This seems too entrenched to be that place.

Biggest Snub: CONAN (TBS) I'm actually pleased with the five chosen. This would be my next pick if there were six.

Creative Arts Emmy Predictions

The Creative Arts Emmys are on Saturday. Most of the categories are too specific (and too arbitrarily chosen) or low profile to bother with. I always like taking a shot in the dark on a number of these, so here's a quick run down in nearly no order.

A couple things worth noting: Unlike my B-teams or my main ceremonies predictions coming up, I'm not going to bother pointing out which things I have and haven't seen. For these categories, I'll estimate that I've seen about a third of them. That'll have to do.

Structured Reality Program
Antiques Roadshow (PBS)
Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives (Food)
Mythbusters (Discovery)
Property Brothers (HGTV)
Shark Tank (ABC)
Undercover Boss (CBS)

Will Win: Shark Tank - The category is too new to start noticing trends, so I'll go with last year's winner.
Should Win: Antiques Roadshow - It has 11 straight nominations and never a win. It's almost mean at this point not to pick it.
Snubbed: Who Do You Think You Are? (TLC) - I always liked the idea of celebrities discovering Ancestry.com.
ACTUAL RESULT: SHARK TANK

Unstructured Reality Program
Alaska: The Last Frontier (Discovery)
Deadliest Catch (Discovery)
Intervention (A&E)
Million Dollar Listing (Bravo)
Naked and Afraid (Discovery)
Wahlburgers (A&E)

Will Win: Deadliest Catch - It won last year against nearly identical competition.
Should Win: Wahlburgers - I don't think I can express how much I love that title.
Snubbed: Somebody's Gotta Do It With Mike Rowe (CNN) - I like Mike Rowe.
ACTUAL RESULT: DEADLIEST CATCH

Variety Special
Bill Mahar: Live From D.C. (HBO)
The Kennedy Center Honors (CBS)
Louis C.K.: Live at the Comedy Store (FX)
Mel Brooks Live at the Geffen (HBO)
SNL 40th Anniversary Special (NBC)
Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga: Cheek to Cheek LIVE! (PBS)

Will Win: SNL 40th Anniversary Special - This could go many ways. Another Mel Brooks program (The AFI Tribute to Mel Brooks) won last year. That broke a five year streak for the Kennedy Center Honors. I'm being sneaky and looking to the 2000 win here for SNL's 25th Anniversary as an indicator.
Should Win: Louis C.K.: Live at the Comedy Store - Or Bill Mahar: Live From D.C. for that matter. It's about time that a stand up special (different from a One Man Show) wins this. The last time it happened was Chris Rock in 1997. For being such a healthy percentage of the nominee pool, it's crazy that it's been that long.
Snubbed: Jim Jeffries: BARE (Netflix) - I just really enjoyed that special.
ACTUAL RESULT: SNL 40TH ANNIVERSARY SPEACIAL 

Special Class Program
Beyonce and Jay Z On the Run (HBO)
The 72nd Annual Golden Globe Awards (NBC)
The Oscars (ABC)
Sweeny Todd (PBS)
68th Annual Tony Awards (CBS)

Will Win: 68th Annual Tony Awards - It's won this category since 2010 and since there's no Olympic ceremony to dethrone it, I'll bet on continued dominance.
Should Win: 68th Annual Tony Awards - The Tonys put on the best show.
Snubbed: 57th Annual Grammy Awards (CBS) - If we are going with what puts on the best show, The Grammys aren't far behind The Tonys.
ACTUAL RESULT: SWEENY TODD

Short-Format Live -Action Entertainment
Between Two Ferns With Zach Galifianakis: Brad Pitt (funnyordie.com)
Billy On The Street With First Lady Michelle Obama, Big Bird And Elena!!! (funnyordie.com)
Childrens Hospital • Just Like Cyrano de Bergerac
Key & Peele Presents Van And Mike: The Ascension • Episode 5
Super Bowl XLIX Halftime Show Starring Katy Perry

Will Win: Between Two Ferns With Zach Galifianakis: Brad Pitt - It took interviewing the president to finally beat Children's Hospital. I'm predicting it has momentum now.
Should Win: Billy On The Street With First Lady Michelle Obama, Big Bird And Elena!!! - It's got the zeitgeist more than any of the others.
Snubbed: Play It Again, Dick (theCW.com) - I had a friend describe enough of it to me that I feel confident calling it unfairly snubbed.
ACTUAL RESULT: BETWEEN TWO FERNS

Short-Format Nonfiction Program
American Horror Story: Extra-Ordinary Artists (FX)
Parks and Reacreation: Behind the Final Season (NBC.com)
30 for 30 Shorts (ESPN)
Transparent: This is Me (EW.com)
A Tribute to Mel Brooks (FX)

Will Win: 30 for 30 Shorts - This isn't a very established category, so I'm this for the repeat.
Should Win: Parks and Recreation: Behind the Final Season - What can I say? I love Parks & Rec.
ACTUAL RESULT: A TRIBUTE TO MEL BROOKS

Children's Program
Alan Alda And The Actor Within You: A YoungArts Masterclass (HBO)
Degrassi (Nick)
Dog With A Blog (Disney Channel)
Girl Meets World (Disney Channel)
Nick News With Linda Ellerbee: Coming Out (Nick)

Will Win: Nick News With Linda Ellerbee: Coming Out - This show has been nominated 16 times (excluding double nominations) since 1996 and won 9 times. The next closest run of success is Wizards of Waverly Place with three wins in a four year period. HBO documentaries are the main thing to knock Nick News out. Occasionally Disney Channel dethrones it, which keeps this interesting. By now, I'm counting Degrassi out entirely.
Should Win: Girl Meets World - Once it figured out the balance of old fan service and kid appeal, this got to be a show that I happily watch each week.
Snubbed: Jessie (Disney Channel) - I watched about 3 minutes of it one time. It was ok, and that's all you need to be in this category.
ACTUAL WINNER: ALAN ALDA AND THE ACTOR WITHIN YOU

Interactive Program
@Midnight with Chris Hardwick (Comedy Central)
Last Week Tonight (HBO)
SNL (NBC)
Talking Dead (AMC)
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC)

Will Win: The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon - The category has only existed in proper for a year, so I might as well go with last year's winner.
Should Win: @Midnight - No show is more truly interactive than this one.
Snubbed: The Voice (NBC) - There's voting and probably hashtags. It might as well count. This isn't a deep nomination pool.
ACTUAL WINNER: LAST WEEK TONIGHT

Documentary or Nonfiction Special

The Case Against the 8 (HBO)
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief (HBO)
Kurt Cobain: Montage of Heck (HBO)
Sinatra: All Or Nothing At All (HBO)
Virunga (Netflix)

Will Win: Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief - There's not really consistent trending on this category. I'll go with this for the mix of quality (I heard it was pretty good) and public interest (It definitely got people talking).
Should Win: Kurt Cobain: Montage of Heck - I ask myself which of these I'm most likely to ever see and this is the first one that comes to mind.
Snubbed: Robin Williams Remembered - That title alone has me a little teary-eyed.
ACTUAL WINNER: GOING CLEAR

Documentaty or Nonfiction Series
American Masters (PBS)
Cancer: The Emperor of All Maladies (PBS)
The Jinx: The Life and Deaths of Robert Durst (HBO)
The Roosevelts: An Intimate History (PBS)
The Sixties (CNN)

Will Win: The Jinx: The Life and Deaths of Robert Durst - If this doesn't win, then I don't understand anything about anything.
Should Win: The Jinx: The Life and Deaths of Robert Durst - This might be one of the 10 best things I've watched in the past year.
Snubbed: Building Wonders (NOVA) (PBS) - I don't know the list very well, but I do know NOVA.
ACTUAL WINNER: THE JINX

Informational Series of Special
Anthony Bourdain Parts Unknown (CNN)
Foo Fighters: Sonic Highway (HBO)
Insider the Actors Studio (Bravo)
StarTalk with Neil deGrasse Tyson (NatGeo)
Vice (HBO)

Will Win: Anthony Bourdain Parts Unknown - The category has been around for two years, had two winners each time, and one of the winners was Parts Unknown. If I had to pick a second winner, it would be Vice.
Should Win: Vice - I've heard some good things about Vice. I haven't seen anything in the category though.
ACTUAL WINNER: ANTHONY BOURDAIN PARTS UNKNOWN

Animated Program
Archer (FX)
Bob's Burgers (Fox)
Over The Garden Wall (Cartoon Network)
The Simpsons (Fox)
South Park (Comedy Central)

This is a tough one to call. Bob's Burgers is the reigning winner with that lone win and four consecutive nominations. South Park though won the year before, with 5 wins and 14 nominations since 1998. While The Simpsons hasn't won since 2008, it has 10 wins and 23 nominations since 1990. This is a thoroughly entrenched group.
Will Win: South Park - Had Bob's Burgers won twice in three tries, I'd call for a changing of the guard. As is, it looks more like a one year blip and I can see South Park moving back in for the win.
Should Win: Bob's Burgers - I haven't seen any of the nominated episodes except for Archer, but I like the idea of Bob's Burgers as a repeat winner.
Snubbed: BoJack Horseman (Netflix) - The best reviews I've heard of any program not nominated in this field is BoJack.
ACTUAL WINNER: OVER THE GARDEN WALL

Short-Format Animated Program
Adventure Time "Jake the Brick" (Cartoon Network)
Disney Mickey Mouse "Mumbai Madness" (Disney Channel)
Regular Show "White Elephant Gift Exchange" (Cartoon Network)
Robot Chicken "Chipotle Miserable" (Cartoon Network)
Steven Universe "Lion 3: Straight to Video" (Cartoon Network)
Wander Over Yonder "The Gift 2: The Giftening" (Disnet XD)

Will Win: Disney's Mickey Mouse "Mumbai Madness" - Mickey's been on a tear recently with  two wins in a row.  Regular Show (2012) and Robot Chicken (2010) are former winners hanging around though.
Should Win: Robot Chicken "Chipotle Miserable" - It makes me laugh. I tried watching Mickey Mouse once. Not for me.
Snubbed: Mike Tyson Mysteries "Ty-Stunned" - Look at that title. How do you not nominate that?
ACTUAL WINNER: ADVENTURE TIME

Guest Actor - Drama
Alan Alda (The Blacklist) (NBC)
Michael J Fox (The Good Wife) (CBS)
F. Murray Abraham (Homeland) (SHO)
Reg E. Cathey (House of Cards) (Netflix)
Beau Bridges (Masters of Sex) (SHO)
Pabli Schreiber (Orange is the New Black) (Netflix)

Will Win: Beau Bridges - I heard good things about his performance here.
Should Win: Michael J Fox - I want to see how many Emmys he can win before he dies (Not implying that he's going to die soon).
Snubbed: Scott Glenn (The Leftovers) (HBO) - He played a great crazy dad.
ACTUAL WINNER: REG E. CATHEY (HOUSE OF CARDS)

Guest Actress - Drama
Margo Martindale (The Americans) (FX)
Diana Rigg (Game of Thrones) (HBO)
Rachel Brosnahan (House of Cards) (Netflix)
Cicely Tyson (How to Get Away With Murder) (ABC)
Allison Janney (Masters of Sex) (SHO)
Khandi Alexander (Scandal) (ABC)

Will Win: Allison Janney - Emmy voters love Allison Janney.
Should Win: Allison Janney - Emmy voters should love Allison Janney
Snubbed: Julia Garner (The Americans) (FX) - I can't remember the last time I was as uncomfortable watching something as her scenes with Matthew Rhys this season.
ACTUAL WINNER: MARGO MARTINDALE (THE AMERICANS)

Guest Actor - Comedy
Mel Brooks (The Comedians) (FX)
Paul Giamatti (Inside Amy Schumer) (Comedy Central)
Bill Hader (SNL) (NBC)
Louis CK (SNL) (NBC)
Bradley Whitford (Transparent) (Amazon)
Jon Hamm (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt) (Netflix)

Will Win: Mel Brooks - This tends to go to legends (Bob Newhart - 2013) or Jimmy Fallon or Justin Timberlake hosting SNL (2009, 2011, 2012, 2014). This could go a lot of ways.
Should Win: Bill Hader - He's good at this SNL thing.
Snubbed: Michael Rapaport (Louie) (FX) - That's one of the rawest performances on a "comedy" this year.
ACTUAL WINNER: BRADLEY WHITFORD (TRANSPARENT)

Guest Actreess - Comedy
Christine Baranski (The Big Bang Theory) (CBS)
Gaby Hoffman (Girls) (HBO)
Pamela Adlon (Louie) (FX)
Elizabeth Banks (Modern Family) (ABC)
Joan Cusack (Shameless) (SHO)
Tina Fey (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt) (Netflix)

Will Win: Christine Baranski - I think Tina Fey is the only other one that would make sense for what I know about Emmy voters.
Should Win: Gaby Hoffman - No one is out of their comfort zone in this category, but Hoffman's comfort zone is the most interesting in small, guest-sized doses.
Snubbed: Julia Duffy (Looking) (HBO) - I hate and love Patrick's mom. It's frustrating.
ACTUAL WINNER: JOAN CUSACK (SHAMELESS)

Character Voice-Over Performance
John Roberts - Bob's Burgers (FOX)
Seth McFarlane - Family Guy (FOX)
Seth Green - Robot Chicken (Cartoon Network)
Dan Castellaneta - The Simpsons (FOX)
Tress MacNeille - The Simpsons (FOX)
Hank Azaria - The Simpsons (FOX)

Will Win: Dan Castellaneta - Most often this goes to Futurama or The Simpsons* recently. With no Futurama and last year's winner (Harry Shearer for The Simpsons) not nominated, I will pick another Simpsons actor out of a hypothetical hat.
Should Win: I'm good with any of these.
*2010 winner was Anne Hathaway on The Simpsons, btw. So, Anne Hathaway has an Emmy. I bet you didn't know that. And it's for being on The Simpsons.
ACTUAL WINNER: HANK AZARIA (THE SIMPSONS)

Reality Host
Tom Bergeron (Dancing with the Stars) (ABC)
Jane Lynch (Hollywood Game Night) (NBC)
Heidi Klum, Tim Gunn (Project Runway) (Lifetime)
Cat Deely (So You Think You Can Dance) (FOX)
Anthony Bourdain (The Taste) (ABC)

Will Win: Anthony Bourdain - The last three winners are all nominated but I'm going with new blood.
Should Win: Cat Deely - She has the most nominations without a win. It's her turn.
Snubbed: RuPaul (RuPaul's Drag Race) (Logo) - I honestly don't think Emmy voters know that Logo is a channel.
ACTUAL WINNER: JANE LYNCH (HOLLYWOOD GAME NIGHT)

Writing - Variety Series
The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)
The Daily Show (Comedy Central)
Inside Amy Schumer (Comedy Central)
Key & Peele (Comedy Central)
Last Week Tonight (HBO)

Will Win: Last Week Tonight - I love Comedy Central's dominance here, but Last Week Tonight has been embraced in a way that Real Time never was. There's room for farewell seasons of The Colbert Report or The Daily Show with Jon Stewart to win though.
Should Win: Last Week Tonight - The depth of the research and the run-time of the stories is simply better than anything else out there right now.
Snubbed: CONAN (TBS) - I like this group, but if one writing staff deserves some attention that wasn't nominated, I'll go with former Emmy darlings Conan & Co.
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Writing - Variety Special
Louis C.K.: Live at the Comedy Store (FX)
Mel Brooks Live At The Geffen (HBO)
The 72nd Annual Golden Globe Awards (NBC)
Saturday Night Live 40th Anniversary Special (NBC)
Key & Peele Super Bowl Special (Comedy Central)

Will Win: Louis C.K.: Live at the Comedy Store - A Louis C.K. special won in 2013 and 2012. A Sarah Silverman special won last year. It's hard seeing how this doesn't win.
Should: Louis C.K.: Live at the Comedy Store - Of what I've seen, this was the best of the list.
Jim Jeffries: BARE (Netflix) I like stand up. It was between this and Bill Burr's. This felt more written (in a good way), so I went with it.
ACTUAL WINNER: LOUIS C.K.: LIVE AT THE COMEDY STORE

Directing - Variety Series
The Colbert Report
The Daily Show
Inside Amy Schumer ("12 Angry Men Inside Amy Schumer)
Late Show with David Letterman
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon

Will Win: Inside Amy Shcumer - It's so showy and celebrity-filled that I don't see how the voters miss the chance to single this out.

Should Win: Inside Amy Schumer - That was a fantastic episode that captured the feel of the original movie while injecting the show's sensibilities.

Snubbed: Saturday Night Live (NBC) - People only remember the flubs, but I'm impressed by what they do live 20-something times a season. Also, this is a somewhat shocking snub since SNL has won the last five of these.
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Directing - Variety Special
Annie Lennox: Nostaligia Live in Concert (PBS)
The Kennedy Center Honors (CBS)
The Oscars (ABC)
Saturday Night Live 40th Anniversary Special (NBC)
68th Annual Tony Awards (CBS)

Will Win: 68th Annual Tony Awards - It won this in 2014, 2012, 2011, 2010...
Should Win: 68th Annual Tony Awards - And it's dominant for a reason.
Biggest Snub: Bill Maher: Live From D.C. - I'm a sucker for Live.
ACTUAL WINNER: SNL 40TH ANNIVERSARY SPECIAL

Casting - Comedy
Louie (FX)
Modern Family (ABC)
Transparent (Amazon)
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
Veep (HBO)

Will Win: Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt - For nearly a decade now, this award has gone to either new shows or 30 Rock. Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt is a new show and run by the same people as 30 Rock. That should make it unstoppable.
Should Win: Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt - It's hard because I really don't know what this category means. Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt fits most of my imagined criteria though.
Snubbed: You're the Worst (FX) - With any of the wrong people, this show would've fallen apart.
ACTUAL WINNER: VEEP

Casting - Drama
Downton Abbey (PBS)
Game of Thrones (HBO)
House of Cards (Netflix)
Mad Men (AMC)
Orange is the New Black (Netflix)

Will Win: Game of Thrones - Well, in the last decade, this has only not gone to a show in its first season twice (Mad Men S3 in 2010 and Grey's Anatomy S2 in 2006). Seeing as a new show isn't an option this year, I'll go with the longest consecutive nominee.
Should Win: Orange is the New Black - This show integrates new and old characters unlike any on TV.
Snubbed: The Leftovers - You'll get more of a sense of this the more I get into these predictions, but I love The Leftovers and I can't think of a better cast show this year than it.
ACTUAL WINNER: GAME OF THRONES

Casting - Limited Series or Movie
American Crime (ABC)
American Horror Story: Freak Show (FX)
Bessie (HBO)
Olive Kitteridge (HBO)
Wolf Hall (PBS)

Will Win: Olive Kitteridge - It's Olive or Bessie. Beyond that, it's a coin flip. I'll go with Olive for  getting Bill Murray back on TV.
Should Win: Bessie (HBO) - I don't have any reason for this beyond liking so many of the people in the cast.
Snubbed: Sharknado 2: The Second One - I defy you to find me a casting director who understood a movie's directive more than the one(s) working for this movie.
ACTUAL WINNER: OLIVE KITTERIDGE

Main Title Design
American Horror Story: Freak Show (FX)
Bosch (Amazon)
Halt and Catch Fire (AMC)
Manhattan (WGN)
Marvel's Daredevil (Netflix)
Olive Kitteridge (HBO)

Will Win: Marvel's Daredevil - It's a guess.
Should Win: Halt and Catch Fire - I watched all the openings online. I like this one the best.
Snubbed: The Leftovers (HBO) - That's a fun opening and would've been a great throwaway chance to nominate it.
ACTUAL WINNER: MANHATTAN

Stunt Coordination - Comedy
Brooklyn Nine Nine (Fox)
Community (Yahoo)
It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia (FXX)
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)

Will Win: Brooklyn Nine Nine - They won this last year.
Should Win: Brooklyn Nine Nine - And they deserve to win again.
Snubbed: Workaholics - I don't really watch the show, but it seems like it would have some stunts worthy of recognition.
ACTUAL WINNER: BROOKLYN NINE NINE

Stunt Coordination - Drama
The Blacklist
Boardwalk Empire
Game of Thrones
Sons of Anarchy
The Walking Dead

Will Win: The Blacklist - It won last year somehow.
Should Win: Game of Thrones - It's baffling that this hasn't won before.
Snubbed: Arrow (CW) - I'll go ahead and say it's ridiculous that no Marvel or DC show, of which there are many, is nominated here.
ACTUAL WINNER: GAME OF THRONES