Emmy Picks: Writing

It's time for another edition of my Emmy predictions. This is a tradition of mine built on two pillars:

1) Using far more detail than anyone needs.

2) Ending up with predictions that are only moderately above average in accuracy.

 

It's this mix of content without quality that I really think sets me apart. My goal in this and most activities on this blog is to defend my reasoning more than getting everything right. I'd much rather hear "I get why he was thinking that" than "he's always right". Wait, scratch that. That's a lie. I'm content with the former and striving for the latter. Regardless, let's see how it goes.

 

Note: In all categories I list the nominees from most to least likely to win in bold in the paragraph.

 

* Indicates a show that I haven't watched this season.

# Indicates a show I've seen before, not this season.

 

Outstanding Writing For A Comedy Series

*Ted Lasso “Pilot” (Apple TV+) Pilots, finales, and front runners do well here. This is the pilot. There aren’t any finales. Ted Lasso is the front runner. This pick makes the most sense.

 

*The Flight Attendant “In Case Of Emergency” (HBO Max) This was quite a pilot. I think it’s more of a directing threat, but writing wouldn’t be shocking either.

 

*Ted Lasso “Make Rebecca Great Again” (Apple TV+) As an eligibility technicality, this is the only Ted Lasso episode nominated for both writing and directing. Perhaps that’s a sign of more overall love than I’m giving it credit for.

 

*Hacks “There Is No Line (Pilot)” (HBO Max) I do think Hacks will end up being “The Jean Smart Show” at the end of the day. Despite the number of nominations, this feels like the end of the road here.

 

Pen15 “Play” (Hulu) Well, it did get a nomination in 2019 and the show has a series nomination. That’s not nothing.

 

*Girls5eva “Pilot” (Peacock) I would love this to win, but Girls5Eva was almost entirely ignored by voters. Oddball nominations like this don’t win.

 

Biggest Snub: *Saved by the Bell “Pilot”

Laugh if you want, but this meta-take on the original show took a bad idea and made it work. The pilot does a lot of that work.

 

Outstanding Writing For A Drama Series

*The Crown “War” (Netflix) Being the front-runner isn’t a guarantee of a win. In fact, this doesn’t match up with the series winner automatically. The Crown is normally looked at as more of a director’s show, but – as you’ll keep hearing me say – it’s a weak year for the drama category.

 

*Pose “Series Finale” (FX Networks) They gave the award to the FNL and The Americans series finales. This wouldn’t be unprecedented.

 

*The Mandalorian “Chapter 13: The Jedi” (Disney+) The dual nominations hurt, but I’ll lean toward the episode with the badass introduction of Ahsoka Tano.

 

*The Handmaid's Tale “Home” (Hulu) The pilot did win in 2017, so it’s possible.

 

*The Mandalorian “Chapter 16: The Rescue” (Disney+) It’s a season finale, so I’m probably not giving this enough credit.

 

*Lovecraft Country “Sundown” (HBO) Drama pilots aren’t as successful historically as comedy pilots. It doesn’t help that the show has already been cancelled.

 

*The Boys “What I Know” (Prime Video) Happy to be nominated.

 

Biggest Snub: *For All Mankind “The Grey”

I don’t blame voters for not paying attention to the show because...actually, no. I’m not giving them a pass. I know they are busy, but don’t vote if you don’t watch things.

 

Outstanding Writing For A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie

*Mare Of Easttown (HBO) Emmy voters don’t actually like spreading the wealth. I nearly talked myself into I May Destroy You, but if I think Mare wins for directing, I should pick it for writing too.

 

*I May Destroy You (HBO) This is a very writerly show, so it would make sense to give this to Michaela Coel. Emmy voters love awarding multi-hyphenates for their writing.

 

*The Queen's Gambit (Netflix) I mean, it was a strong front-runner at some point in the season. I think Anya Taylor-Joy and the directing would have to win for the writing to win too.

 

*WandaVision “Filmed Before A Live Studio Audience” (Disney+)

*WandaVision “Previously On” (Disney+)

*WandaVision “All-New Halloween Spooktacular!” (Disney+)

Three nominations. No clear best episode. Not the series award frontrunner. Order these however you want. They aren’t winning.

 

Biggest Snub: *Small Axe “Mangrove”

Are you fucking kidding me? Three WandaVisions yet no room for “Mangrove”. This is silly.

 

Outstanding Writing For A Variety Series

*Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO) It’s won the last five years. It will win again.

 

A Black Lady Sketch Show (HBO) I guess it would take a newcomer to unseat the champ.

 

The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS) I mean, a Stephen Colbert show has won this before.

 

*Saturday Night Live (NBC) It won back in 2002. It’s not unprecedented.

 

The Amber Ruffin Show (Peacock) Too new. Too ignored elsewhere.

 

Biggest Snub: Late Night with Seth Meyers

It was nominated the last four years. I’m not sure why it fell out this year.