It's time for another edition of my Emmy predictions. This is a tradition of mine built on two pillars:
1) Using far more detail than anyone needs.
2) Ending up with predictions that are only moderately above average in accuracy.
It's this mix of content without quality that I really think sets me apart. My goal in this and most activities on this blog is to defend my reasoning more than getting everything right. I'd much rather hear "I get why he was thinking that" than "he's always right". Wait, scratch that. That's a lie. I'm content with the former and striving for the latter. Regardless, let's see how it goes.
Note: In all categories I list the nominees from most to least likely to win in bold in the paragraph.
* Indicates a show that I haven't watched this season.
# Indicates a show I've seen before, not this season.
Outstanding Comedy Series
*Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) Consider this Tier 1. Ted Lasso will win. It’s the most nominated first season comedy ever. The competition is pretty weak. There are no former winners nominated. And even if you want to point to a mixed reaction to season 2, the issue most people have with the second season is that it isn’t as good as season 1. That only strengthens it in my book.
*Hacks (HBO Max)
*The Flight Attendant (HBO Max)
I’m calling this Tier 2. The only other contenders. They are buzzy new shows with a boatload of nominations and the power of HBO behind them. That may be the problem too. If Ted Lasso was vulnerable – which it isn’t – neither show would get HBO’s full attention. They are the only shows that have a prayer against Ted Lasso, but it won’t matter.
*black-ish (ABC)
Pen15 (Hulu)
The Kominsky Method (Netflix)
Cobra Kai (Netflix)
Emily In Paris (Netflix)
I can’t even devote time to these. They won’t win. Black-ish and Kominsky have lost before. Pen15 and Cobra Kai are thrilled to just be nominated. Emily in Paris is almost a punchline at this point.
Biggest Snub: *Girls5Eva
Personally, I’d pick this over any of the nominees. For the love of god, Emmy voters, just get Peacock. You’re embarrassing yourselves.
Outstanding Drama Series
*The Crown (Netflix) Only one previous winner in the field. The Crown has lost several times before, but it hasn’t lost any of its prestige credentials yet. This Diana and Charles season is the start of what everyone has been waiting for. It’s really hard for me to argue with this as the clear and worthy frontrunner. That said, this isn’t a peak Game of Thrones or Mad Men kind of favorite. It’s more like The Handmaid’s Tale winning in 2017 when no one was really sure what the favorite was.
*The Mandalorian (Disney+) I remained surprised that Emmy voters actually like The Mandalorian so much. A second drama series nomination with an increase in major nominations means it wasn’t a fluke. Game of Thrones may not have been the exception. Emmy voters may have fully fallen for the allure of genre TV.
*Pose (FX Networks) An emotional final season should never be counted out.
*Bridgerton (Netflix) The only show that can compete with The Crown and The Mandalorian for buzz.
*The Handmaid's Tale (Hulu) For years I’ve argued that The Handmaid’s Tale will follow the same trajectory as Homeland. The nomination haul this year throws the comparisons off a little, but that has more to do with a COVID shortage of options than a renewed love for Handmaid’s Tale. Its time has passed.
*The Boys (Prime Video) Just happy to be nominated.
*Lovecraft Country (HBO) Thrilled to be nominated.
*This Is Us (NBC) The fact that this season is the one that finally broke me and got me to stop watching (mid-season, which is incredibly rare) must mean something.
Biggest Snub:* For All Mankind
It’s really the only other eligible option that I watched that should be in the discussion. Apple TV+ has really made a believer out of me.
Outstanding Limited Or Anthology Series
*Mare Of Easttown (HBO) As Lead Actress goes, so goes the series award. It’s the same big three fighting for a win. I still believe in the power of HBO.
*The Queen's Gambit (Netflix) This show was a sensation. It built over several weeks, despite being dropped all at once. I may be underestimating it. It so damn watchable. It hints at difficult topics without ever really being challenging. Such a damn crowd-pleaser. Limited Series is by far the most competitive part of this Emmys.
*I May Destroy You (HBO) I’m not convinced that voters will really follow through on awarding something this challenging. The awards narratives are much cleaner for Mare and Queen’s Gambit.
*WandaVision (Disney+) Happy to be nominated.
*The Underground Railroad (Prime Video) Too little too late to nominate this, Emmy voters. I know you didn’t actually watch all of this.
Biggest Snub: *Small Axe
How did this not get nominated? It’s packed with stars. Marquee director. All five-parts are self-contained movies, so even if they just watched an “episode” or two, it would be plenty to prove its worthiness. I get a lot of the other snubs this year. This one more than any other makes me want to burn down the Emmys and come up with a better process. Ignoring this series so completely means the Emmys are fundamentally flawed.
Outstanding Television Movie*
(Apparently they already announced this and Dolly Parton's Christmas on the Square won, so I'm off to a middling start)
Sylvie's Love (Prime Video) This is the only nominee I remember people actually watching.
Dolly Parton's Christmas On The Square (Netflix) Several of these Dolly Parton movies have been nominated. They have actually spent something to promote this as an Emmy contender. Why not? It’s not like this is a strong group of nominees.
Oslo (HBO) I mean, it is an HBO movie. HBO has won the last 12 of these that weren’t won by Netflix or PBS (neither network was nominated here).
Uncle Frank (Prime Video) Writer/director Alan Ball is an Oscar winner (American Beauty) with a collection of Emmy nominations.
Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia (Lifetime) A Lifetime movie has never won this in 11 tries. Do you really want to predict this movie you haven’t heard of will break that trend?
Biggest Snub: *Unpregnant
The Oscars relaxed their eligibility rules, so COVID didn’t actually do that much for the TV-Movie field as some had predicted. This abortion roadtrip movie is the best eligible film I could find. It’s certainly more interesting than all of these nominated movies.
Outstanding Variety Talk Series
*Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO) Five-time winner against a nearly identical field as those other five years. Yeah, make it six.
The Daily Show With Trevor Noah (Comedy Central) The Daily Show had a history of Emmy dominance in the Jon Stewart incarnation. Trevor Noah’s version has been gaining steam for years. How long before Emmy voters get bored with John Oliver? Jon Stewart’s Daily Show won 10 before The Colbert Report broke the streak.
Conan (TBS) Odds are this is the last time Conan will ever be nominated. O’Brien has been a late-night staple since 1993 – nearly 30 years. His prior two incarnations earned nominations. I suppose it wouldn’t be crazy if Emmy voters get sentimental with his last hurrah and finally give him a series win.
The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS) The last show to beat John Oliver or Jon Stewart was Colbert’s last show. And, before The Daily Show and its offspring took over the category, The Late Show with David Letterman was king with the Variety Series award. In other words, few shows have ever circled a win a much as this show.
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) 10 consecutive nominations. Never a win. Nothing this year to suggest things will change.
Biggest Snub: Desus & Mero
I don’t watch it. I just know that this is the show my Twitter gets most angry about when it isn’t nominated.
Outstanding Variety Sketch Series
*Saturday Night Live (NBC) 4 consecutive wins. A very popular cast. Less competition. It’s hard to see why SNL would lose.
A Black Lady Sketch Show (HBO) We don’t know what the final tallies for Emmy votes are. You only need a plurality to win. There’s a corner of the internet that believes that a majority of Emmy voters are ready to pick something other than SNL. The problem most years is that the anti-SNL vote is split among a few shows so SNL ends up a plurality winner. This year, all the anti-SNL voters can line up behind A Black Lady Sketch Show. Frankly, I think that’s bullshit. SNL trounces ABLSS in the important nominations (Acting*). I have no indication that most voters have even watched ABLSS. It’s not beating SNL.
*Check any major website for Emmy predictions. They’ll pick Series and Acting awards. Personally, I think Writing and Directing matter more to the quality of the show, but these are predictions of who I think will win, not who I think should win.
Biggest Snub: How To With John Wilson
This was right behind I May Destroy You on 2020 Best Of lists. I still haven’t watched it, but I’m comfortable calling it snubbed.
Outstanding Competition Program
RuPaul's Drag Race (VH1) By far the most entrenched category at the Emmys. Drag Race has the last three wins. No reason to expect that to change against a nearly identical field.
The Voice (NBC) 4-time winner (2013, 2015-2017). It continues to be a ratings draw. It’s as likely as anything to unseat Drag Race.
The Amazing Race (CBS) 10-time winner (2003-2009, 2011-2012, 2014). It has been nominated every since year that the category has existed. It should never be counted out.
Top Chef (Bravo) Winner in 2010. That means that every former winner of this category is nominated. It’s hard to see Top Chef winning again with that sole win over a decade away.
Nailed It! (Netflix) The only non-former winner nominated. Frankly, I’ve never heard a real person talk about Nailed It! and I know many people who keep track of Drag Race in several countries.
Biggest Snub: *American Ninja Warrior
I watch this show religiously, but even I’ll admit that the formula is pretty stale. That said, I think there should always be a place to marvel at superhumans completing obstacles so easily that I think I, a person who can’t complete a single pull-up, could do them.
No comments:
Post a Comment