Creative Arts Emmys Predictions

Picking just the main Primetime Emmy Ceremony categories is boring. I might as well give my two cents about a selection of awards handed out at the Creative Arts Emmys next Saturday. That said, there’s no way I’m doing every category. I can’t even pretend like I know how to rate Lighting Design.

 

* Indicates a show that I haven't watched this season.

# Indicates a show I've seen before, not this season.

 

Outstanding Character Voice-Over Performance

• #Jessica Walter (Archer “The Double Date”) (FX)
• *Maya Rudolph (Big Mouth “A Very Special 9/11 Episode”) (Netflix)
• *Stacey Abrams (black-ish: Election Special (Part 2)) (ABC)
• *Julie Andrews (Bridgerton “Diamond Of The First Water”) (Netflix)
• Tituss Burgess (Central Park “A Fish Called Snakehead”) (Apple TV+)
• Stanley Tucci (Central Park “A Fish Called Snakehead”) (Apple TV+)
• #Seth MacFarlane (Family Guy “Stewie's First Word”) (FOX)

 

After years of Family Guy dominance from 2016-2019 (3 wins for Seth MacFarlane, 1 win for Alex Borstein), Maya Rudolph broke through with a win for Big Mouth last year. A repeat seems likely. There are some dark horses though. MacFarlane has won this a lot. There’s a chance Jessica Walter love bubbles up even more after her passing this year. This is her first time being nominated, so that’s evidence that the posthumous bump is real. Julie Andrews may be looked at as more of a narrator, but she’s vital to Bridgerton. Emmy voters could go more political by picking Stacey Abrams. I have no issue with Abrams as a person, but it’s laughable that she got this nomination in the first place. Have we just forgotten that there are trained professionals in this field?

 

Will Win: Maya Rudolph

Could Win: Julie Andrews

Should Win: Jessica Walter (as a win for the series run)

 

Outstanding Animated Program

• *Big Mouth - The New Me (Netflix)
• *Bob's Burgers - Worms Of In-Rear-Ment (FOX)
• Genndy Tartakovsky's Primal - Plague Of Madness (Adult Swim)
• *The Simpsons - The Dad-Feelings Limited (FOX)
• #South Park: The Pandemic Special (Comedy Central)

 

There is no underdog in this group. Primal – Plague of Madness looks like it until you remember that Genndy Tartakovsky has nominations going back to 1995 for Dexter’s Labortatory (4 noms), The Powerpuff Girls (3 noms), Samurai Jack (3 noms, 1 win), and Star Wars: The Clone Wars (2 noms, 2 wins). In fact, his shows won the long form and short form animation Emmys in 2004 and were nominated every year from 1995-2005. It’s not even that the voters fell out of love with him after that. He’s been mostly directing Hotel Transylvania movies since then.

Then look at the rest of the nominees. The Simpsons. 30 nominations with 11 wins (most recently 2019). Bob’s Burgers. 10 nominations, 2 wins (most recently 2017). South Park. 18 nominations, 5 wins (most recently 2013). Big Mouth is relatively new, with 3 nominations and no wins (yet).

It’s been a while since this category had a wild winner (2015’s Over the Garden Wall), which they historically had pretty regularly. That makes Primal – Plague of Madness intriguing. I’m going to be boring though. The nominated Simpsons episode is a spot-on Wes Anderson riff that I’ve heard more people mention in passing than I’m used to these days. If not The Simpsons adding to their collection, I can see it being Big Mouth’s turn.

 

Will Win: The Simpsons

Could Win: Big Mouth

Should Win: The Simpsons

 

 

Outstanding Short Form Animated Program

• Love, Death + Robots “Ice” (Netflix)
• *Maggie Simpson In: The Force Awakens From Its Nap (Disney+)
• Once Upon A Snowman (Disney+)
• Robot Chicken “Endgame” (Adult Swim)

 

Love, Death + Robots won in 2019. Robot Chicken has won many times (most recently 2018). The Simpsons is an animation power teaming with Disney’s might. Once Upon a Snowman matches up with last year’s win for Forky Asks a Question. The two Disney+ programs could cancel each other out, and Love, Death + Robots won the last time it went head-to-head with Robot Chicken.

 

Will Win: Love, Death + Robots

Could Win: Maggie Simpson In

Should Win: Robot Chicken

 

Outstanding Casting For A Comedy Series

• *The Flight Attendant (HBO Max)
• *Hacks (HBO Max)
• The Kominsky Method (Netflix)
• Pen15 (Hulu)
• *Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)

 

No one actually understands how to vote for casting. Here’s what I know though. This either goes to the Comedy Series winner (2015-2020) or the hot new show (2012, 2014). Sometimes both (2010, 2018). I can throw out Pen15 and The Kominsky Method immediately. Barring some crazy turn of events, Ted Lasso has the Comedy Series award locked up AND it’s new. That makes it the obvious front runner here. The spoiler seems like The Flight Attendant due to all the scenarios the cast find themselves in.

 

Will Win: Ted Lasso

Could Win: The Flight Attendant

Should Win: Ted Lasso

 

Outstanding Casting For A Drama Series

• *Bridgerton (Netflix)
• *The Crown (Netflix)
• *The Handmaid's Tale (Hulu)
• *Lovecraft Country (HBO)
• *The Mandalorian (Disney+)

 

The drama Casting award is a little more unpredictable than the comedy counterpart. It does often go to the series winner (2012, 2016, 2019-20). New series do well too (2011, 2014, 2017). It really is about the size and scope of the ensemble though. They love a show that fills a world with characters. All these shows do that pretty well. The Handmaid’s Tale hasn’t won yet, despite previous seasons with a lot more fresh faces. Lovecraft Country is a little too niche. The Crown has won before, and it wasn’t for its first season. Given the number of big figures it brought in this year, it has the inside track. The Mandalorian probably wins with star tonnage and overall reliance on casting each episode. I worry about it not even getting nominated for season 1 though. Bridgerton feels like the more likely dark horse with how many new characters it had to populate the world with, and how it is making stars out of so many of them.

 

Will Win: The Crown

Could Win: Bridgerton

Should Win: The Crown

 

Outstanding Casting For A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie

• *I May Destroy You (HBO)
• *Mare Of Easttown (HBO)
• *The Queen's Gambit (Netflix)
• *The Underground Railroad (Prime Video)
• *WandaVision (Disney+)

 

The frontrunner for the Series award is a good place to start. The only real time it goes a different direction is when it’s not that starry of a show. Chernobyl lost to When They See Us, because Chernobyl only had a handful of characters. Shows are definitely hurt if no one knows the cast either. I May Destroy You and The Underground Railroad have a lot of unfamiliar faces, and unlike Bridgerton in drama, these shows didn’t make big names out of them. Perhaps I May Destroy You is that beloved though. I’m not ready to predict Marvel shows winning when worthy alternatives are available, so I’m crossing off WandaVision. That leaves the likely Series frontrunners, Mare of Easttown and The Queen’s Gambit. I’ll lean Mare with the number of familiar faces that pop up.

 

Will Win: Mare of Easttown

Could Win: The Queen’s Gambit

Should Win: Mare of Easttown

 

Outstanding Casting For A Reality Program

• Queer Eye (Netflix)
• RuPaul's Drag Race (VH1)
• Shark Tank (ABC)
• Top Chef (Bravo)
• The Voice (NBC)

 

This is only the fifth year of the category. Drag Race won last year for the first time. Queer Eye won the two years before that. No new blood in the field, so I think it’s still down to those two. I’m cosigning the Drag Race dominance until I’m given a reason to think otherwise.

 

Will Win: RuPaul’s Drag Race

Could Win: Queer Eye

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Directing For A Variety Special

• *Bo Burnham  (Bo Burnham: Inside) (Netflix)
• *Spike Lee (David Byrne's American Utopia) (HBO)
• Julia Reichert, Steven Bognar, Dave Chappelle (8:46 - Dave Chappelle) (Netflix)
• Ben Winston (Friends: The Reunion) (HBO Max)
• Thomas Schlamme (A West Wing Special To Benefit When We All Vote) (HBO Max)

 

This is tough. I can only immediately throw out the West Wing Special. Any thunder that would get was stolen by the Friends Reunion. People could just plain love Friends so much that this wins. I don’t expect that. A Dave Chappelle special won just last year, but that was the exception, not the norm. Besides, if any comedy special is winning, Inside would make the most sense. It had a bigger impact and Bo Burnham is all over the nominations. Partly because I need to believe there is justice in this world, I’m going with American Utopia. It’s directed by Spike Lee, has a direct tie to perhaps the greatest concert doc ever (Stop Making Sense), and is really damn good.

 

Will Win: David Byrne’s American Utopia

Could Win: Bo Burnham: Inside

Should Win: David Byrne’s American Utopia

 

Outstanding Directing For A Documentary/Nonfiction Program

• Kirby Dick, Amy Ziering (Allen v. Farrow “Episode 3”) (HBO)
• Frank Marshall (The Bee Gees: How Can You Mend A Broken Heart) (HBO)
• *Amanda McBaine, Jesse Moss (Boys State) (Apple TV+)
• Kirsten Johnson (Dick Johnson Is Dead) (Netflix)
• Jeff Orlowski (The Social Dilemma) (Netflix)
• Dan Lindsay, TJ Martin (Tina) (HBO)

 

No formula works here. The last two Oscar winners for documentary won this too, but the year before that, the Oscar winner (Icarus) lost to the critically adored Oscar snub (Jane). It’s also gone to buzzy shows before like Making a Murderer. I’m leaning away from buzz (Allen v. Farrow, The Social Dilemma) and will go with the critical favorites (Dick Johnson is Dead, Boys State).

 

Will Win: Dick Johnson is Dead

Could Win: Boys State

Should Win: Boys State

 

Outstanding Directing For A Reality Program

• The Amazing Race “Give Me A Beard Bump” (CBS)
• Queer Eye “Preaching Out Loud” (Netflix)
• RuPaul's Drag Race “Gettin' Lucky” (VH1)
• Top Chef “Pan African Portland” (Bravo)
• The Voice “The Blind Auditions Premiere” (NBC)

 

There’s no “prestige” offering like Cheer, so it’s back to the Drag Race (2018 winner) v. Queer Eye (2019 winner) debate. I’m going to double-down on Drag Race.

 

Will Win: RuPaul’s Drag Race

Could Win: Queer Eye

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Interactive Program

• Create Together With Joseph Gordon-Levitt (YouTube)
• Inside COVID19 (Oculus)
• Space Explorers: The ISS Experience (Oculus
• Welcome To The Blumhouse Live (welcometotheblumhouse.com)

 

I have no clue what will win this. I just want to point out how fun it is to track the Emmy’s attempts to figure this category out. The Award goes back to 2002. I don’t think it has stayed the same for two consecutive years at any point. They split it some years. They leave it as a single award other years. Sometimes it’s competitive. Other times it’s a special jury award. Here are just a few of the names it or a variant of it has gone by:

Outstanding Achievement in Interactive Television Programming

Outstanding Achievement in Enhanced or Interactive Television — Television

Outstanding Interactive Media Programming — Fiction

Outstanding Creative Achievement in Interactive Media

Outstanding Creative Achievement in Interactive Media within a Scripted Program
Outstanding Interactive Extension of a Linear Program

 

I’m a fan of the nice, simple Outstanding Interactive Program though. It’s good when the Emmys admit they are out of their element and keep it simple. As for predictions. Uhh….

 

Will Win: Inside Covid (Oculus)

Could Win: Welcome to the Blumhouse Live

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Main Title Design

• Between The World And Me (HBO)
• The Good Lord Bird (Showtime)
• *Lovecraft Country (HBO)
• *The Queen's Gambit (Netflix)
• Raised By Wolves (HBO Max)
• *WandaVision (Disney+)

 

Will Win: WandaVision

Could Win: Lovecraft Country

Should Win: WandaVision

 

Each episode of WandaVision had its own title spoofing a different type of classic sitcom. That is by far the most striking title offering. I suppose though that they could like the simplicity of the Lovecraft Country opening that also left room for variation.

 

Outstanding Original Music And Lyrics

• *Bo Burnham: Inside (Song Title: Comedy) (Netflix)
• *The Boys “The Big Ride” (Song Title: Never Truly Vanish) (Prime Video)
• *The Queen's Gambit “Adjournment” (Song Title: I Can't Remember Love) (Netflix)
• Soundtrack Of Our Lives (Song Title: The End Titles) (YouTube)
• *WandaVision “Breaking The Fourth Wall” (Song Title: Agatha All Along) (Disney+)
• *Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist “Zoey's Extraordinary Birthday” (Song Title: Crimson Love) (NBC)

 

I’ve gotten over Girls5Eva being ignored. In that absence, Bo Burnham’s only eligible song from Inside is the easy favorite. The only song with a glimmer of a chance is that earworm from WandaVision.

 

Will Win: Bo Burnham: Inside

Could Win: Wandavision

Should Win: Girls5Eva “Separ8 Ways” (Song Title: 4 Stars) Bo Burnham: Inside

 

 

Outstanding Original Main Title Theme Music

• Allen v. Farrow (HBO)
• *Bridgerton (Netflix)
• *The Flight Attendant (HBO Max)
• *Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
• *WandaVision (Disney+)

 

I don’t have a great deal of reasoning, but…it’s Ted Lasso, right? The show is popular. The opening is good and decently memorable. Like…it’s the winner. I don’t think this category is all that logical any year, but that makes sense to me.

 

Will Win: Ted Lasso

Could Win: The Flight Attendant

Should Win: Ted Lasso

 

Outstanding Guest Actor In A Comedy Series

• Morgan Freeman (The Kominsky Method “Chapter 20. The Round Toes, Of The High Shoes”) (Netflix)
• *Daniel Kaluuya (Saturday Night Live “Host: Daniel Kaluuya”) (NBC)
• *Alec Baldwin (Saturday Night Live “Host: Dave Chappelle”) (NBC)
• *Dave Chappelle (Saturday Night Live “Host: Dave Chappelle”) (NBC)
• *Dan Levy (Saturday Night Live “Host: Dan Levy”) (NBC)

 

There’s always a chance the SNL nominations cancel each other out and leave Morgan Freeman to collect the prize. I think it’s down to Levy and Kaluuya though. Levy has the Schitt’s Creek halo. Kaluuya has the surprise factor of how much he brought to his hosting gig.

 

Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya

Could Win: Dan Levy

Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya

 

Outstanding Guest Actor In A Drama Series

• *Charles Dance (The Crown “Gold Stick”) (Netflix)
• *Don Cheadle (The Falcon And The Winter Soldier “New World Order”) (Disney+)
• *Courtney B. Vance (Lovecraft Country “Whitey’s On The Moon”) (HBO)
• *Carl Weathers (The Mandalorian “Chapter 12: The Siege”) (Disney+)
• *Timothy Olyphant (The Mandalorian “Chapter 9: The Marshal”) (Disney+)

 

There’s no Handmaid’s Tale or This Is Us to default to, so it’s wide open for the first time in a while. My heart says that Emmy voters will appreciate the Timothy Olyphant casting on The Mandalorian, but my head says that Charles Dance has the right mix of familiarity, respect, and popular show. And, given that most people went into Lovecraft Country thinking Vance was a regular on it, he’s a safe dark horse bet.

 

Will Win: Charles Dance

Could Win: Courtney B. Vance

Should Win: Timothy Olyphant

 

Outstanding Guest Actress In A Comedy Series

• Yvette Nicole Brown (A Black Lady Sketch Show “But The Tilapias Are Fine Though, Right?”) (HBO)
• Issa Rae (A Black Lady Sketch Show “My Booty Look Juicy, Don’t It?”) (HBO)
• *Jane Adams (Hacks “I Think She Will”) (HBO Max)
• *Kristen Wiig (Saturday Night Live “Host: Kristen Wiig”) (NBC)
• *Maya Rudolph (Saturday Night Live “Host: Maya Rudolph”) (NBC)
• *Bernadette Peters (Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist “Zoey's Extraordinary Girls' Night”) (NBC)

 

Voters pretty much default to SNL unless giving a strong reason to vote otherwise. Jane Adams certainly feels like she could sneak up, but it feels like this is between reigning winner Maya Rudolph and Kristen Wiig.

 

Will Win: Maya Rudolph

Could Win: Kristen Wiig

Should Win: Maya Rudolph

 

Outstanding Guest Actress In A Drama Series

• *Claire Foy (The Crown “48:1”) (Netflix)
• *McKenna Grace (The Handmaid's Tale “Pigs”) (Hulu)
• *Alexis Bledel (The Handmaid's Tale “Testimony”) (Hulu)
• Sophie Okonedo (Ratched “The Dance”) (Netflix)
• *Phylicia Rashad (This Is Us “I've Got This”) (NBC)

 

The infamous Margo Martindale win for a single unremarkable scene of The Americans one year means all bets are off. Claire Foy could get it simply due to name recognition. McKenna Grace deserves it for bringing something new to The Handmaid’s Tale. Emmy voters hate children though. Realistically, I think this is down to former winner Alexis Bledel and the love affair with This Is Us performances. I’ll go on a limb and say that Phylicia Rashad’s defense of Bill Cosby will cost her some points, even though Emmy voters would love to finally give her some hardware.

 

Will Win: Alexis Bledel

Could Win: Phylicia Rashad

Should Win: McKenna Grace

 

Outstanding Actor In A Short Form Comedy Or Drama Series

• Brendan Scannell (Bonding) (Netflix)
• Kevin Hart (Die Hart) (Quibi)
• John Travolta (Die Hart) (Quibi)
• John Lutz (Mapleworth Murders) (Quibi)
• J.B. Smoove (Mapleworth Murders) (Quibi)

 

Quibi lives! Bonding was cancelled too, so it’s not like any of them will be more hurt for no longer being on the air. The oddness of Travolta is intriguing; however, J.B. Smoove feels more natural here.

Will Win: J.B. Smoove

Could Win: John Travolta

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Actress In A Short Form Comedy Or Drama Series

• Nathalie Emmanuel (Die Hart) (Quibi)
• Keke Palmer (Keke Palmer's Turnt Up With The Taylors) (Facebook Watch)
• Paula Pell (Mapleworth Murders) (Quibi)
• Kerri Kenney-Silver (Reno 911!) (Quibi)

 

Even more Quibi. I’m not feeling Die Hart or Facebook Watch. And Reno 911! Has some name recognition.

 

Will Win: Kerri Kenney-Silver

Could Win: Paula Pell

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Narrator

• Sterling K. Brown (Lincoln: Divided We Stand “The Dogs Of War”) (CNN)
• *Anthony Hopkins (Mythic Quest “Everlight”) (Apple TV+)
• David Attenborough (A Perfect Planet “Volcano”) (discovery+)
• Sigourney Weaver (Secrets Of The Whales “Ocean Giants”) (Disney+)
• David Attenborough (The Year Earth Changed) (Apple TV+)

 

David Attenborough has won the last three years, but he’s never had to go up against someone as formidable as David Attenborough. I’d love for a vote split to open up an Anthony Hopkins/Mythic Quest win in, but it’s more likely to go to America’s David Attenborough: Sigourney Weaver

 

Will Win: Sigourney Wever

Could Win: David Attenborough (A Perfect Planet)

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Host For A Reality Or Competition Program

• Nicole Byer (Nailed It!) (Netflix)
• Bobby Berk, Karamo Brown, Tan France, Antoni Porowski, Jonathan Van Ness (Queer Eye) (Netflix)
• RuPaul (RuPaul's Drag Race) (VH1)
• Mark Cuban, Barbara Corcoran, Lori Greiner, Robert Herjavec, Daymond John, Kevin O'Leary (Shark Tank) (ABC)
• Padma Lakshmi, Tom Colicchio, Gail Simmons (Top Chef) (Bravo)

 

RuPaul has the last 5 wins. I expect he’ll earn a sixth. If not, Queer Eye has been staring Drag Race down at every turn.

 

Will Win: Rupaul

Could Win: Queer Eye

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Variety Special (Live)

• Celebrating America - An Inauguration Night Special (Multiple Platforms)
• The 63rd Annual Grammy Awards (CBS)
• *The Oscars (ABC)
• The Pepsi Super Bowl LV Halftime Show Starring The Weeknd (CBS)
• Stephen Colbert's Election Night 2020: Democracy's Last Stand Building Back America Great Again Better 2020 (Showtime)

 

This category has been through a few name changes over the years. Lately there have been three kinds of winners: 1) The live Norman Lear show remakes (2019-20). 2) Live musicals (2015, 2016, 2018). 3) The Tonys (2010-14, 2017). None of those are eligible, so it’s a clean slate. What I’m seeing is that they award showmanship and degree of difficulty. I guess that means The Grammys with all the performances has the advantage. There is a chance that voters are just so happy to be done with Trump that they vote for the Inauguration Night Special on principal.

 

Will Win: The 63^rd Annual Grammy Awards

Could Win: Celebrating America

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)

• *Bo Burnham: Inside (Netflix)
• *David Byrne's American Utopia (HBO)
• 8:46 - Dave Chappelle (Netflix)
• Friends: The Reunion (HBO Max)
• *Hamilton (Disney+)
• A West Wing Special To Benefit When We All Vote (HBO Max)

 

Lately, Dave Chappelle specials (2018, 2020) and Carpool Karaoke (2016, 2017, 2019) have won this. There’s no Carpool Karaoke, so 8:46 – Dave Chappelle theoretically has the advantage. To be honest, I don’t get the Chappelle love. He’s fine. I just don’t see how he even won this last year with 2 nominations in the category and buzzy projects like Hannah Gadsby: Douglas and John Mulaney & the Sack Lunch Bunch on the ballot. So, maybe I’m a fool for doubting him again. Hamilton has clear Emmy voter love and is the obvious favorite. I expect Bo Burnham: Inside to suffer the fate of other non-Chappelle comedy specials with a boatload of nominations and fail to win the big award. The Spike Lee connection and general appeal of David Byrne’s American Utopia makes it the dark horse to me.

 

Will Win: Hamilton

Could Win: David Byrne’s American Utopia

Should Win: David Byrne’s American Utopia

 

Outstanding Short Form Comedy, Drama Or Variety Series

• Carpool Karaoke: The Series (Apple TV)
• Late Night With Seth Meyers: CORRECTIONS (YouTube)
• The Randy Rainbow Show (YouTube)
• Reno 911! (Quibi)
• Stephen Colbert Presents Tooning Out The News (Paramount+)

 

They combined the Short Form Comedy or Drama and Short Form Variety Series awards into a single category this year. Theoretically, that creates some suspense. In truth, Carpool Karaoke has the last three Variety wins and wins in other categories. It’s the show to beat. If not that, perhaps the Stephen Colbert brand carries some weight.

 

Will Win: Carpool Karaoke: The Series

Could Win: Stephen Colbert Presents Tooning Out The News

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Short Form Nonfiction Or Reality Series

• Full Frontal With Samantha Bee Presents: Pandemic Video Diaries: Vaxxed And Waxxed (TBS)
• Inside Pixar (Disney+)
• Pose: Identity, Family, Community (FX Networks)
• Top Chef: Last Chance Kitchen (Bravo)
• Uncomfortable Conversations With A Black Man (YouTube)

 

They tend to go pretty boring with this category. I think Top Chef’s clout helps it. Otherwise, Inside Pixar seems bland enough to win.

 

Will Win: Top Chef: Last Chance Kitchen

Could Win: Inside Pixar

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Documentary Or Nonfiction Special

• The Bee Gees: How Can You Mend A Broken Heart (HBO)
• *Boys State (Apple TV+)
• Framing Britney Spears (The New York Times Presents) (FX Networks)
• The Social Dilemma (Netflix)
• Tina (HBO)

 

The voters aren’t super consistent in the category, so it’s hard to read much from past winners. HBO and to a lesser extent Netflix have the most success. They don’t tend to pick the most sensational nominee either. Still, the Britney Spears story has been all over the news and Twitter lately. It’s breaking perfectly for the Emmy voting window. Otherwise, I’ll look to the HBO dominance and pick Tina, even though it’s likely to split votes with HBO’s Bee-Gee’s doc.

 

Will Win: Framing Britney Spears

Could Win: Tina

Should Win: Boys State

 

Outstanding Documentary Or Nonfiction Series

• Allen v. Farrow (HBO)
• American Masters (PBS)
• City So Real (National Geographic)
• Pretend It's A City (Netflix)
• Secrets Of The Whales (Disney+)

 

Looking at past winners, this seems to be the pecking order.

#1 – the buzzy show (The Jinx – 2015, Making a Murderer – 2016, Wild Wild Country – 2018, The Last Dance – 2020).

#2 – the nature doc (Planet Earth – 2007, Frozen Planet – 2012, Planet Earth II – 2017, Our Planet – 2019).

#3 – American Masters (1999-2001, 2003-04, 2008-09, 2011, 2013-14).

What complicates it this year is if Allen v. Farrow was actually that buzzy. It felt more niche to me. Pretend It’s a City was also popular among a certain subsection of people, but I don’t even remember it getting a SNL parody (actually maybe it did). And is Secrets of the Whales really a top tier nature series? Or is it like all the ones I didn’t mention because they didn’t win? For lack of a great option, I’ll stick with the buzz, but I don’t feel great about it. This could be a year they just default back to American Masters.

 

Will Win: Allen v. Farrow

Could Win: Pretend It’s a City

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series Or Special

• My Next Guest Needs No Introduction With David Letterman (Netflix)
• Oprah With Meghan And Harry: A CBS Primetime Special (CBS)
• Stanley Tucci: Searching For Italy (CNN)
• United Shades Of America With W. Kamau Bell (CNN)
• Vice (Showtime)

 

Since the award came back in 2013, Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown or Leah Remini: Scientology and the Aftermath have won or shared every year. The only former co-winner in this field is Vice (2014), which is definitely more of a failsafe pick at this point. The Meghan and Harry interview was too big to not be the frontrunner here. If not that, then United Shades had three wins in the Unstructured Reality Series category (2017-19) which it used to be in.

 

Will Win: Oprah With Meghan And Harry: A CBS Primetime Special

Could Win: United Shades

Should Win: N/A

 

Exceptional Merit In Documentary Filmmaking

• Dick Johnson Is Dead (Netflix)
• 76 Days (Pluto)
• Welcome To Chechnya (HBO)

 

I still don’t understand the difference between this and the Outstanding Documentary Or Nonfiction Special award. From what I understand, they can only submit for one or the other. I don’t know why this exists though. Time and time again, Dick Johnson Is Dead has turned out to be more of a hit with critics than voting bodies. Even though I think it has better odds than 76 Days, which aired on something called Pluto, I’m calling Welcome to Chechnya, with its HBO backing, the frontrunner.

 

Will Win: Welcome to Chechnya

Could Win: Dick Johnson Is Dead

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Structured Reality Program

• Antiques Roadshow (PBS)
• Property Brothers: Forever Home (HGTV)
• Queer Eye (Netflix)
• Running Wild With Bear Grylls (National Geographic)
• Shark Tank (ABC)

 

Until it finally does happen, I’m going to point out Antiques Roadshows’ now 19 nominations without a win. At some point, could the voters decide that Queer Eye will be back next year and just throw the Roadshow a bone? Anyway, Queer Eye has the last three wins. That will continue. If not. Shark Tank has the four wins before that. While the Property Brothers and Bear Grylls shows may be new nominees, they are old brands that have never won before. No reason to think that would change this year.

 

Will Win: Queer Eye

Could Win: Shark Tank

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Unstructured Reality Program

• Becoming (Disney+)
• Below Deck (Bravo)
• Indian Matchmaking (Netflix)
• RuPaul's Drag Race Untucked (VH1)
• Selling Sunset (Netflix)

 

Well, no Cheer this year and United Shades moved to a different category. That means all the recent winners are gone. Untucked hasn’t benefitted from the Drag Race dominance in other categories in past year, so I wouldn’t expect that to start now. Still, there is a chance everything is finally out of its way. I’m going with Selling Sunset though. This is entirely based on how many times I’ve heard it mentioned in unrelated tweets and podcasts over the last year.

 

Will Win: Selling Sunset

Could Win: RuPaul’s Drag Race Untucked

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Stunt Coordination

• Doom Patrol (HBO Max)
• *The Falcon And The Winter Soldier (Disney+)
• *The Mandalorian (Disney+)
• S.W.A.T. (CBS)
• Warrior (HBO Max)

 

They’ve reshuffled the Stunt categories this year finally. I don’t fully understand the difference between Stunt Coordination and Stunt Performance, I’ll admit. The fact that Gangs of London was left out here though means the trend of Emmy voters not understanding stunts continues. I can’t tell you if Warrior or Doom Patrol need more consideration here. I can just assume that voters only watched the Disney+ series.

 

Will Win: The Mandalorian

Could Win: The Falcon and the Winter Soldier

Should Win: The Mandalorian

 

Outstanding Stunt Performance

• Cobra Kai “December 19” (Netflix)
• *The Falcon And The Winter Soldier “Truth” (Disney+)
• *Gangs Of London “Episode 2” (AMC+)
• *Lovecraft Country “I Am.” (HBO)
• *The Mandalorian “Chapter 16: The Rescue” (Disney+)

 

Again, I don’t understand the difference, but Stunt Performance has a list that makes more sense to me. I don’t believe Gangs of London will get consideration, but it really should. I found the show to be tedious, but the fight scenes are undeniably great. Anyway, go with the Disney+ shows because voters aren’t clever.

 

Will Win: The Mandalorian

Could Win: The Falcon and the Winter Solder

Should Win: Gangs of London

 

Outstanding Writing For A Variety Special

• *Bo Burnham: Inside (Netflix)
• The Daily Show With Trevor Noah Presents: Jordan Klepper Fingers The Pulse - Into The MAGAverse (Comedy Central)
• 8:46 - Dave Chappelle (Netflix)
• John Lewis: Celebrating A Hero (CBS)
• Stephen Colbert's Election Night 2020: Democracy's Last Stand Building Back America Great Again Better 2020 (Showtime)

 

It’s safe to predict a comedy special will get this. Normally it’s stand up, so 8:46 seems obvious. Chappelle did win this last year. I think this is Inside’s best chance though. The writing is all over that special and this is a category where the Emmy voters like to prove they are hip.

 

Will Win: Bo Burnham: Inside

Could Win: 8:46 – Dave Chappelle

Should Win: Bo Burnham: Inside

 

Outstanding Writing For A Nonfiction Program

• All In: The Fight For Democracy (Prime Video)
• Allen v. Farrow “Episode 3” (HBO)
• The Bee Gees: How Can You Mend A Broken Heart (HBO)
• The Social Dilemma (Netflix)
• Tulsa Burning: The 1921 Race Massacre (HISTORY)

 

Oh my god. Finally. The last category. Why do I do this again? I’m exhausted…

 

It’s unfortunate that Netflix or HBO didn’t have any breakout Nonfiction hits this year (Thanks, COVID). Allen v. Farrow seems like the option with the most traction. I’m also weirdly tempted to pick Tulsa Burning. Since Watchmen brought Tulsa’s Black Wall Street to more people’s attention, there’s been a strong curiosity about it.

 

Will Win: Allen v. Farrow

Could Win: Tulsa Burning

Should Win: N/A