It's time for another edition of my Emmy predictions. This is a tradition of mine built on two pillars:
1) Using far more detail than anyone needs.
2) Ending up with predictions that are only moderately above average in accuracy.
It's this mix of content without quality that I really think sets me apart. My goal in this and most activities on this blog is to defend my reasoning more than getting everything right. I'd much rather hear "I get why he was thinking that" than "he's always right". Wait, scratch that. That's a lie. I'm content with the former and striving for the latter. Regardless, let's see how it goes.
In most acting categories, the nominees choose a submission episode. Emmy voters are instructed to base their picks only on the submission episodes rather than for the entire season. In the pre-streaming days, the submission episode was a significant indicator of who would win. In recent years, it has been rendered insignificant. No one wins anymore for having a great submission episode. I will not base my predictions on the submission episode either, since it tends to point me the wrong way.
Note: In all categories I list the nominees from most to least likely to win in bold in the paragraph.
* Indicates a show that I haven't watched this season.
# Indicates a show I've seen before, not this season.
Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy Series
*Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live) (NBC) Kenan pulled a Lead and Supporting nomination for his two shows. He’s reached SNL legend status. Ted Lasso has too many nominations. Give this man a trophy.
*Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso) (Apple TV+) Four nominations for Ted Lasso is a dangerous invitation for vote splitting. I think Goldstein is the clear favorite of the four, but that’s a lot of internal competition to fend off. With only two or even three nominations, he might be the favorite. With four, the best I can do is call him the dark horse.
Paul Reiser (The Kominsky Method) (Netflix) He’s been nominated as a performer 7 times now without a win. Vote splitting is throwing my predictions into chaos. It wouldn’t be crazy for someone as respected as Reiser on a show with little overlap with the other shows to sneak in for a win, Louis Anderson-style.
*Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live) (NBC) Maybe voters skip right over Kenan and pick Bowen. It’s already unprecedented for a featured performer to get a nomination in their first season. Who’s to say Yang will stop at that?
*Brendan Hunt (Ted Lasso) (Apple TV+) At this point, I’m just chasing inklings with the Ted Lasso boys. Hunt was a scene-stealer throughout the first season. If Goldstein somehow doesn’t get the Ted Lasso win, then Hunt makes the next most sense.
*Carl Clemons-Hopkins (Hacks) (HBO Max) The nomination just means people watched Hacks. I still assume they watched it for Jean Smart and that’s it. Although, Clemons-Hopkins is quite good in the show.
*Nick Mohammed (Ted Lasso) (Apple TV+)
*Jeremy Swift (Ted Lasso) (Apple TV+)
These nominations indicate Ted Lasso dominance more than anything.
Biggest Snub:* F. Murray Abraham (Mythic Quest)
It’s a shallow field. Abraham got a spotlight episode that let him show off his Oscar-winning chops.
Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama Series
*Michael K. Williams (Lovecraft Country) (HBO) I truly don’t know about this one. It’s begging for an unexpected winner. Williams has years of love with Emmy voters who have found excuses to nominate him after initially missing him on The Wire. This feels like a great chance for the stars to finally align with a win.
[Note: I wrote this and made this pick before Williams' death, which is fitting, because I'm pretty sure Emmy voting was over by the time he died. No "death bump" for his odds]
*Tobias Menzies (The Crown) (Netflix) Menzies didn’t have as much to do this season, but The Crown may just be that dominant.
*Giancarlo Esposito (The Mandalorian) (Disney+) Wouldn’t it be funny for Esposito to win for The Mandalorian rather than Breaking Bad or Better Call Saul?
*Bradley Whitford (The Handmaid's Tale) (Hulu) I expect The Handmaid’s Tale to cancel itself out, but Whitford at least has a history of Emmy success.
*John Lithgow (Perry Mason) (HBO) There’s a chance voters get confused and think he returned to The Crown for another Churchill season.
*O-T Fagbenle (The Handmaid's Tale) (Hulu) He does get some great moments with June.
*Max Minghella (The Handmaid's Tale) (Hulu) Was he even in enough of the season to count as a supporting performance?
*Chris Sullivan (This Is Us) (NBC) We learned a while ago that Sterling K. Brown is the one who wins from this show.
Biggest Snub:* Michael Dorman (For All Mankind)
I swear, I’m not obsessed with For All Mankind. It’s just the only glaring Drama series miss that I watched.
Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie
*Evan Peters (Mare Of Easttown) (HBO) I heard people call this a surprise nomination and I don’t understand why. It’s a popular performance by a well-liked actor on a show that captured the zeitgeist for a chunk of the Spring. I think it’s very likely that he wins.
*Daveed Diggs (Hamilton) (Disney+) Look. People love Hamilton and Diggs’ performance in it. Can you really say you’re certain this won’t happen? It’s a lazy pick, but I’m not that optimistic about Emmy voters.
*Thomas Brodie-Sangster (The Queen's Gambit) (Netflix) If people remember The Queen’s Gambit well enough, they may recall how much Brodie-Sangster, who many probably hadn’t seen since Love, Actually, stole the show.
*Paapa Essiedu (I May Destroy You) (HBO) If Michaela Coel’s name isn’t on it, I don’t see anything from I May Destroy You winning.
*Jonathan Groff (Hamilton) (Disney+)
*Anthony Ramos (Hamilton) (Disney+)
Diggs has the inside track. I truly can’t explain what would have to happen for Groff or Ramos to win instead.
Biggest Snub: *Bill Camp (The Queen’s Gambit)
I think he’d win had he been nominated. I’m still not sure how he didn’t make the cut.
Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series
*Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso) (Apple TV+) Waddingham is arguably the second lead of Ted Lasso. They love the show and there’s not that much vote splitting to fight. This feels like an easy win.
*Rosie Perez (The Flight Attendant) (HBO Max) The Flight Attendant clearly has a lot of support too, and Perez’s nomination was one of the more celebrated on nomination morning. This is a very real possibility.
*Juno Temple (Ted Lasso) (Apple TV+) Even though I think Waddingham support is stronger, I think Ted Lasso love is stronger than just about everything this year.
*Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live) (NBC) Two-time winner (2016-2017) who is reliably good on a popular show.
*Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) (HBO Max) I’d argue Einbinder is the main character of Hacks. She’s great in Hacks, but her name isn’t Jean Smart.
*Aidy Bryant (Saturday Night Live) (NBC) Nominated for Shrill and SNL. Aidy Bryant love is growing.
*Cecily Strong (Saturday Night Live) (NBC) Do we really think that Schmigadoon! buzz will push her over the edge?
Biggest Snub: *Busy Phillips (Girls5Eva)
She is long overdue a nomination for always being great. Girls5Eva is a hell of an ensemble and she shined throughout.
Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama Series
*Gillian Anderson (The Crown) (Netflix) She’s going to win this. I don’t know what else to tell you.
*Ann Dowd (The Handmaid's Tale) (Hulu)
*Yvonne Strahovski (The Handmaid's Tale) (Hulu)
*Helena Bonham Carter (The Crown) (Netflix)
*Aunjanue Ellis (Lovecraft Country) (HBO)
*Samira Wiley (The Handmaid's Tale) (Hulu)
*Madeline Brewer (The Handmaid's Tale) (Hulu)
*Emerald Fennell (The Crown) (Netflix)
I did order these, but it doesn’t matter. Anderson is winning this.
Biggest Snub:* Krys Marshall (For All Mankind)
Sure, we needed 3 The Crown nominees and 4 The Handmaid’s Tale nominees. Even though For All Mankind matches them for female cast member depth.
Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie
*Kathryn Hahn (WandaVision) (Disney+) She’s been nominated before and everyone loves Kathryn Hahn. WandaVision got a lot of nominations. The Mandalorian picked up nominations from its first season. I think Emmy voters have proven that they are taking the Disney+ offerings seriously. Jean Smart also having Hacks really opened this up.
*Julianne Nicholson (Mare Of Easttown) (HBO) Again, Jean Smart would win this if she didn’t have Hacks. So Nicholson gets the edge here. My only hesitation is that so much of the season people were asking why they weren’t using her more. Was she really used enough in the last episode to make up for it?
*Jean Smart (Mare Of Easttown) (HBO) She will win for Hacks. It would be insane if she won this too. Not impossible though.
*Renée Elise Goldsberry (Hamilton) (Disney+) How deep is Hamilton love?
*Moses Ingram (The Queen's Gambit) (Netflix) I had to remind myself who this was.
*Phillipa Soo (Hamilton) (Disney+) Theoretically, Goldsberry is helped by people who may be angry she was snubbed for Girls5Eva. Something tells me there’s not a “Phillipa Soo was snubbed for The Bite” crowd.
Biggest Snub: *Letitia Wright (Small Axe)
With slightly different rules, Small Axe could’ve been all five of the TV Movie nominations and no one would’ve complained. Wright was the lead of “Mangrove”, which was my favorite of the five. There was plenty of room for her here.
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