Emmy Picks: Directing

It's time for another edition of my Emmy predictions. This is a tradition of mine built on two pillars:

1) Using far more detail than anyone needs.

2) Ending up with predictions that are only moderately above average in accuracy.

 

It's this mix of content without quality that I really think sets me apart. My goal in this and most activities on this blog is to defend my reasoning more than getting everything right. I'd much rather hear "I get why he was thinking that" than "he's always right". Wait, scratch that. That's a lie. I'm content with the former and striving for the latter. Regardless, let's see how it goes.

 

Note: In all categories I list the nominees from most to least likely to win in bold in the paragraph.

 

* Indicates a show that I haven't watched this season.

# Indicates a show I've seen before, not this season.

 

 

Outstanding Directing For A Comedy Series

*Zach Braff (Ted Lasso “Biscuits”) (Apple TV+) My head says that the three nominations will cancel each other out. A comedy with two nominations in the field hasn’t won since 2012. That has done in Maisel, Barry, Atlanta, Veep, and Silicon Valley. Ted Lasso looks like such a runaway though and “Biscuits” is a title that fans will immediately connect to that I have to call it the favorite. Having a familiar name like Zach Braff attached doesn’t hurt either.

*Susanna Fogel (The Flight Attendant “In Case Of Emergency”) (HBO Max) If something spoils it for Ted Lasso, it’s clearly The Flight Attendant’s pilot. That episode does a ton of work and would be the favorite if Ted Lasso wasn’t so beloved.

*Lucia Aniello (Hacks “There Is No Line (Pilot)”) (HBO Max) Hacks did get a bunch of nominations. There’s always a chance it sneaks up on everyone.

*MJ Delaney (Ted Lasso “The Hope That Kills You”) (Apple TV+) This is some dangerous hedging. I either think a Ted Lasso episode will win and have those three episodes as the most likely winners, or I think they will cancel each other out and put Hacks and Flight Attendant above all three. It’s dangerous to have the other Ted Lasso episodes this low. I feel pretty confident that “Biscuits” is the favorite though.

*Declan Lowney (Ted Lasso “Make Rebecca Great Again”) (Apple TV+) I’m giving the season finale a slight edge over this episode.

James Burrows (B Positive “Pilot”) (CBS) There is slight history of shows that aren’t real contenders winning this award for their pilots, but they are uncommon. Pushing Daisies in 2008 and My Name is Earl in 2006, but even those had more traction than B-Positive, which was only nominated because of the legend, James Burrow directing.

James Widdoes (Mom “Scooby-Doo Checks And Salisbury Steak”) (CBS) The last non-pilot, not series contender to win this was an episode of Dream On in 1993. So, I don’t see this happening.

 

Biggest Snub: *Mythic Quest “Backstory!”

While I have issue with the episode’s overall place in the season arc, it’s undeniably a well-made episode. It’s almost like an episode from a completely different series and it arrived fully formed. Great work by the Mythic Quest crew.

 

Outstanding Directing For A Drama Series

*Benjamin Caron (The Crown “Fairytale”) (Netflix) This feels like a Crown win. It’s won this award before (2018) against a Game of Thrones juggernaut and it’s the series favorite this year. Unlike the comedy award, this one isn’t as tied to pilots and finales, so I’ll go with the Diana-centric “Fairytale”.

*Jessica Hobbs (The Crown “War”) (Netflix) Unlike with Ted Lasso, I’m not risking it. Both The Crown episodes are my most likely winners. Maybe I have the wrong order, but this is The Crown’s to lose.

*Jon Favreau (The Mandalorian “Chapter 9: The Marshal”) (Disney+) The Game of Thrones wins (2015-16) and to some extent the True Detective win (2014) means that voters can fall hard for spectacle. In terms of size and scope as a technical achievement, The Mandalorian stands alone among the nominees.

*Liz Garbus (The Handmaid's Tale “The Wilderness”) (Hulu) The Handmaid’s Tale has won before (2017 – the pilot, but still). It’s clear that Emmy voters aren’t done with the show yet, so it’s not inconceivable that it could win. This does mark where I start calling a win unlikely.

*Steven Canals (Pose “Series Finale”) (FX Networks) Series finales get more love in writing than direction.

*Julie Anne Robinson (Bridgerton “Diamond Of The First Water”) (Netflix) I feel like the Bridgerton and Crown overlap is strong, and The Crown is more of a favorite based on total nominations. There’s not enough support left for Bridgerton to have a chance.

 

Biggest Snub:* For All Mankind “The Grey”

As I’ve mentioned, the drama field is pretty weak this year. Some love for For All Mankind would’ve been deserved. The season finale really was an impressive culmination of several season-long arcs.

 

Outstanding Directing For A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie

*Craig Zobel (Mare Of Easttown) (HBO) Full seasons have the advantage. Mare of Easttown had a specific look and tone throughout and is the show that’s fresher in voters’ minds.

*Scott Frank (The Queen's Gambit) (Netflix) If the voters have a better memory than I give them credit for, the ceiling chess very well could win. Scott Frank’s direction was certainly showier than Mare’s.

*Sam Miller, Michaela Coel (I May Destroy You “Ego Death”) (HBO) Since 2015, when Limited Series started picking up steam, full series nominations have won 5 out of 6 years. The one year that a single episode from a show won (2018), it was a much weaker field and it wasn’t competing against itself. The dual nominations for I May Destroy You is killer. Look for the one that Michaela Coel codirected to win if it does still prevail somehow.

*Thomas Kail (Hamilton) (Disney+) I don’t know. Did you see how many nominations Hamilton got? For what it’s worth, this was a pretty well filmed recording.

*Matt Shakman (WandaVision) (Disney+) WandaVision got several nominations and the premise of the show involves showing off numerous different looks.

*Barry Jenkins (The Underground Railroad) (Prime Video) It’s crazy to think Barry Jenkins is this low, but I see no evidence that enough people watched The Underground Railroad to expect a win.

*Sam Miller (I May Destroy You “Eyes Eyes Eyes Eyes”) (HBO) Again, the dual nominations are killer and this is the less likely episode to win anyway.

 

Biggest Snub: *Small Axe

Maybe if it was only single episodes eligible I would understand Small Axe falling out, but all 5 are lumped together. How in the world did this fail to get a nomination? Ridiculous!

 

Outstanding Directing For A Variety Series

*Saturday Night Live “Host: Dave Chappelle” (NBC) SNL has won the last four years and 9 of the last 11. The times it lost was to Inside Amy Shumer in the post-Trainwreck year and the last season of The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. None of the other nominees are an event episode, so I see no reason to pick against SNL.

 

*Last Week Tonight With John Oliver “Trump & Election Results / F*ck 2020” (HBO) It is the Variety Talk frontrunner, so it makes sense as the best upset pick.

 

The Late Show With Stephen Colbert “Live Show Following Capitol Insurrection; Senator Amy Klobuchar, Rep. Adam Kinzinger, Performance By Jamila Woods” (CBS) That’s a long title name. That must mean something, right?

 

Late Night With Seth Meyers “Episode 1085a” (NBC) Well, it certainly has more steam than Real Time.

 

Real Time With Bill Maher “Episode 1835” (HBO) Oh, that’s still on?

 

Biggest Snub: How To With John Wilson “How to Cook the Perfect Risotto”

This was the critical darling in 2020 and would’ve been a nice change of pace in the nomination field.