This is my oldest tradition on this blog and perhaps my favorite. The basic idea is simple. The 2022 Emmys are a year away. I’m going to make a set of 10 predictions for next year and see how I do this time next year. This year, I’ll even give a little extra. Before I get to my predictions, I want to look across the 2022 landscape as we know it right now.
(Disclaimer: These are predictions, not hopes. I want to be wrong about many of these)
Drama Series
This is going to be a nice bounce back for the Drama Series category after a really weak lineup gave a lot of shows a chance to sneak in. Succession is the clear front runner as the 2020 winner with HBO backing. The Crown's fourth season (if it's ready) in all its Diana and Charles glory will be right at its heels for Netflix. It's hard to see anything breaking past those two at the top. There's a ton of returning depth too. Stranger Things (Netflix), Ozark (Netflix), Westworld (HBO), and The Morning Show (Apple) should all be in the thick of it after a year off. I think The Morning Show and Ozark are the only ones that could possibly gain momentum. Bridgerton is certainly fading with increased competition. If The Mandalorian is back (I wouldn't be surprised if Disney pushed it to help The Book of Boba Fett) I think it'll take a hit but still be a fringe contender. Expect This Is Us (NBC), Euphoria (HBO), Perry Mason (HBO), and In Treatment (HBO) to fall out entirely. Maybe a stray acting nomination. The Boys (Amazon) is just plain gone.
As for new shows breaking in, it's hard to predict what will pop. I'm certainly looking at Julian Fellows' The Gilded Age with Christine Baranski and Carrie Coon and Adam McKay's Lakers show with a massive cast (Both on HBO) to be contenders. I feel better about The Gilded Age though. All I see for Netflix is the new Shonda Rhimes show, Inventing Anna which would have to really pop to break through. I think Tom Hiddleston is the extent of the Loki (Disney+) love out there. The long-awaited Jeff Bridges show on FX, The Old Man is probably the same. The Book of Boba Fett (Disney+) is one I'll be watching closely. I remain surprised how much The Mandalorian has been embraced by the Emmy voters, so my doubts about The Book of Boba Fett may be misguided.
As for new shows that I think have no change of getting Emmy attention. The Sandman (Netflix), Y: The Last Man (Hulu), Foundation (Apple), and The Wheel of Time (Amazon) are all expensive, ambitious projects that will still feel too niche. Hawkeye and Ms. Marvel on Disney+ will suffer the same fate as Falcon and the Winter Soldier, even if I expect them to be better. Physical doesn't even stand a chance for a Rose Byrne nomination. Bel-Air, the dramatic take on the Will Smith series on Peacock will be DOA.
Comedy Series
The comedy category is also looking at a huge comeback. Ted Lasso (Apple) is set to defend its title and seems like the front runner. Expect this year's "runners-up", Hacks (HBO Max) and The Flight Attendant (HBO Max) to be back. I think Hacks will remain in the thick of it. The Flight Attendant will flame out, partly due to increased competition from 2019 and 2020 nominees. Atlanta (FX) is back. What We Do in the Shadows (FX) is back. Insecure (HBO) is back. Barry (HBO) is back. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon) is back. It's hard to see any of them falling off the ballot, and that doesn't even consider new or rising shows. If Ramy (Hulu) or Russian Doll (Netflix) have new seasons, they could cause a stir. The Great (Hulu) and Pen15 (Hulu) seem to be rising. I think Dead to Me (Netflix) will return too, and its second season had a big jump. I think that will settle back down though. That's a deep field.
Nominees this year that I expect to fade are Black-ish (ABC), Cobra Kai (Netflix), and Emily in Paris (Netflix). They enjoyed good years thanks to decreased competition.
The only new show I see making any dent is HBO's The White Lotus (assuming it doesn't argue its way into Limited/Anthology series). It was a summer sensation. I'm not convinced it has staying power until next year. Just look at how Mare of Easttown faded even by the end of this Emmy season.
A few other shows have a slight chance of making some noise. Reservation Dogs (Hulu) is more of a critical favorite. Girls5Eva probably needed that first season to pop more, but perhaps Emmy voters will finally discover Peacock. A new Curb (HBO) season always stands a chance. And Just Like That (the Sex and the City continuation) is almost certain to be ignored, but you never know.
Don't expect Better Things (FX), Mythic Quest (Apple), Saved by the Bell (Peacock), or Sex Education (Netflix) to get any attention. Netflix has a LA Lakers comedy series that will be swallowed by the HBO Lakers series. Only Murders in the Building (Hulu) is a bit niche. Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Amazon) has a chance, but a new season of Atlanta and no Phoebe Waller Bridge takes the steam out of it. How I Met Your Father (Hulu) and Joe Exotic (Peacock) are non-factors.
Limited/Anthology Series
This is the hardest to forecast, since there are no truly returning show in thew field, and these shows often seem to pop up out of nowhere. American Crime Story: Impeachment (FX) has the brand recognition, strong cast, and history of success to look like the early frontrunner. I think it's been pretty dreadful early on though. If this makes it through the season as a top contender, then it's a big drop from 2021, where this wouldn't've gotten anything. HBO's The White House Plumbers, with Woody Harrelson, Justin Theroux, Domhnall Gleeson, Lena Heady, and Kiernan Shipka, has the cast of my favorite show in the next year. I know nothing else about it though. Oscar Isaac and Jessica Chastain by all means should stay contenders until next year for Scenes from a Marriage (HBO). The show hasn't had much buzz yet though. Dexter: New Blood's success will all be about if people remember the good Dexter years or the bad Dexter years. Showtime has had some trouble keeping voters' attention in an increasingly streaming world though. Obi-Wan Kenobi and Moon Knight have a chance to keep Disney+'s hot streak going. At some point though, you'd think Emmy snobbery would catch up to Oscar snobbery when it comes to Star Wars and the MCU; not that I want that to happen.
The Hulu Pam & Tommy series is getting a ton of hype. It's from Evan Goldberg and Seth Rogen though. Technically The Boys did barely sneak a Drama series nomination this year, but in general, the Rogen/Goldberg brand isn't very Emmy friendly. Given the subject matter, that show will likely be seen as trashy, not prestige. Dopesick (Hulu) has the credentials with Danny Strong as creator and Michael Keaton as star yet I've heard no buzz yet and it's coming out pretty soon. That's a bad sign. Nine Perfect Strangers (Hulu) could get a stray acting nomination, but The White Lotus will eat its lunch. The Shrink Next Door (Apple) with Paul Rudd and Will Ferrell will continue the tradition of comedies getting ignored in the Limited Series field. And FX's American Horror Story (and Stories) are fully out of the mix.
Now that you have that primer, here are my 10 predictions.
Netflix and HBO will switch places in the series awards.
Last year, I called Neflix finally winning a major series award (Comedy, Drama, Limited) and HBO not winning any. The was correct and now balance will be restored. Netflix will lose them all. HBO will win at least one, if not two. That seems pretty likely with Succession and Barry in the mix, as well as HBO always having a few surprises up their sleeve. Netflix is dangerous in Limited series. In drama though, The Crown is firmly behind Succession and there’s no obvious Comedy contender. And, for the record, I’m counting HBO and HBO Max together here.
The TV Movie winner will be a genuine hit.
I don't know how to define this, but I’ll know it when I see it. What I’m talking about is a TV Movie winner that will have people arguing about how well it could’ve done in the box office or that leads to Netflix reporting some cryptic high viewer numbers. So far, the streamers have saved all of their best movies for Oscar consideration. At some point, the Oscar eligibility rules will tighten back up and one of them will opt to offer up a prime movie to Emmy consideration. I’m probably a couple years too early on this. The “TV movie” label is still a low-status perception that talent balks at. However, why can’t something the size of a To All the Boys or The Kissing Booth go to the Emmys? I promise that I’ll set the bar high on this for it to count.
SNL loses the sketch comedy award.
They have run the table the last five years. I sensed some agitation this year. People are getting tired of it being a given. I think something will come along to displace it. Maybe I Think You Should Leave will hit a critical mass of fans. If not that, it does feel like that’s an area Netflix will inevitably target at some point. Comedy Central used to have a great slate of sketch comedies too. And HBO is always lurking. Eventually the field has to start expanding again after years of retraction (only 2 nominees this year).
RuPaul’s Drag Race or Last Week Tonight lose.
Last Week Tonight is on 6 wins in a row. Drag Race is on 4. They’ve been beating virtually identical fields of nominees for years and nothing is obviously rising up the ranks.
Regina King gets another Emmy nomination.
I’m sticking with this one from last year. She was pretty busy with One Night in Miami last year it turns out. So, she’s getting a nomination for something this year. Again, I don’t even think she’s working on a show right now, but they never need much to find a way to nominate her.
Peacock breaks 10 nominations.
It only got 2 nominations this year. The comedies have been so good though, it’s only a matter of time before one or a couple break out enough to get some nomination traction.
Netflix or HBO lose the #2 slot in overall nominations.
This can happen a few ways. Disney+ was only 23 behind HBO this year (94 to 71). With all the spectacle Marvel and Star Wars shows, Disney could rack up even more nominations. AppleTV+ got 34 mainly from Ted Lasso. Morning Show and one new breakout could stack things up. I am counting HBO Max separately for this prediction. That got 36 nomination this year and could keep syphoning off nods from HBO. Or maybe Netflix just has a worse year. They already dropped from 160 last year to 129 this year. Netflix’s days of cleaning up in the ignored categories may be numbered with all the streaming competitors. Look, this prediction won’t happen but it sure is fun to think about.
Insecure wins for Writing, Director, and/or Lead Actress
I think a series win is too much. The last season had a lot of momentum and everyone still loves Issa Rae. This is a fair gamble for its last season. Award her in some way.
A first time Service wins a main ceremony series or program award.
To clarify, I’m talking about Peacock, Paramount+, or Disney+ will win Drama Series, Comedy Series, Limited Series, TV Movie, Variety Sketch Series, or Variety Talk Series. That’s a bigger ask than it sounds like. Look at those fields. I don’t know how that is happening. I'm leaning into the streamers all finding success though after years of doubt burning me.
Only two acting, writing, or directing fields have three or more nominations.
This is the easiest way for me to say that something will force the Emmy voters to have a little more variety. This year, eight categories had three or more nominations from the same show. Getting it down to only two categories would be a massive improvement.
There you go. 10 predictions that all could happen. And, several tiny predictions snuck into that opening overview section. I'm sure I won't be embarrassed by any of these a year from now.
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