This is my
oldest tradition on my blog (since 2011!), and the idea is very simple. The
2021 Emmys are about a year away. I'm going to make 10 predictions about them
now and see how I do in a year. This year is going to be especially hard since
COVID has thrown the TV schedule into complete disarray. Wish me luck.
(Disclaimer:
These are predictions, not hopes. I want to be wrong about many of these)
Netflix
will finally get that Series win it desires.
After this
year, Netflix is 0/30 for the Comedy, Drama, and Limited series awards. In
2021, that will change. I don't even have a show in mind (maybe The Crown).
My logic is this. When everything shut down because of COVID, Netflix proudly
announced that they already had all their programming for 2020 completed, and
that's a massive amount of content. Many other networks have faced delays
getting production back up or had to push things ahead in order to have
something to air. Netflix will capitalize on this disarray and get the win that
Hulu and Amazon beat them to.
HBO won't
win any of the big three series awards.
This isn't
that unthinkable. In 2014, HBO failed to win the Comedy, Drama, or Limited
series trophies. I think it's a bold prediction though. Schitt's Creek
ended, so Comedy is wide open again. Succession will probably be back in
time for a third season in time for the 2021 awards. HBO always has a few great
limited series bouncing around. Their schedule has hardly seemed impacted by
COVID (so far).
The TV
Movie winner will be a movie that was originally supposed to have a theatrical
release.
This isn't
as much of a layup as it sounds. The Oscars have said that for this year only,
if there was an intention to release a movie in theaters, even if that didn't
happen because of COVID, it will still be eligible in the Academy's eyes. It's
not entirely clear at this time how those will be treated by the Emmys. In the
past, documentaries have been able to get nominated for both the Oscar and
Emmys. TV movies have to pick one or the other. That's why The Irishman
wasn't collecting statues this week, even though it was a Netflix movie. Due to
the massive increase in streaming service premieres though, I suspect a few
movies will give up on the Oscar and opt for the less competitive Emmy.
Last Week
Tonight loses the Talk Series and/or writing category.
John
Oliver's show doesn't feel particularly vulnerable, but even The Daily Show
with Jon Stewart occasionally lost the writing Emmy during its reign.
Speaking of which, Trevor Noah's Daily Show keeps gaining momentum, and
that's a brand that Emmy voters recognize. I could easily see that or another
show giving Last Week Tonight its first setback in years.
Regina King
gets another Emmy nomination.
Look. I
don't even know what her schedule is. I just know she has 5 nomination in the
last 6 years for playing 5 different characters on 3 different shows. She also
won 4 times in that span. Now, I think another win is a bit much to ask.
Between the Emmy love and a recent Oscar win (possibly more Oscar attention on
its way), even Emmy voters may get tired of always awarding her. I just figure
if she's any anything that's eligible though, she'll at least be nominated.
RuPaul's
Drag race loses.
A fourth
consecutive win wouldn't be unthinkable in the category where The Amazing
Race won 7 consecutive. There are more real competitors in the category now
compared to those early days though. The Voice only won three times
before being dethroned by Drag Race. I could easily see The Voice
sneaking in for another win. More likely though, we're in a golden age of food
shows right now, so Nailed It! or another baking show could easily slide
in.
The
"Other" streaming services get fewer nominations than in 2020.
By that, I
mean the ones other than Netflix, Amazon, and Hulu. I'm talking about Disney+,
Apple TV+, Peacock, CBS All Access (soon to be Paramount +), and HBO Max. For
those keeping track, that's 5 nominations for Apple TV+ (The Morning Show)
and 1 for Disney+ (The Mandalorian) in 2020. That number is going down
for the main ceremony next year. I don't see any gaining enough traction by
then, and The Morning Show doesn't seem like a show to make a second
season leap. And, to be clear, HBO Max and HBO are different entities. Succession
is HBO. Love Life is HBO Max.
Fargo will
drop in the nomination count significantly.
Let's say 8
total nominations. The fewest any of the first 3 seasons got was 16 for season
3. It's been 3 years since the last season. The show was already slowing down
in wins. Since the last season, showrunner Noah Hawley's reputation has taken a
hit from the disastrous Lucy in the Sky and a couple pretentious seasons
of Legion. Finally, I love Chris Rock, but season 4 just isn't packing
the same punch in terms of casting. I think voters will find enough else to
champion in the Limited series field.
The
Mandalorian gets another Drama Series nomination.
That was a
surprise announcement on nomination morning this year. The lack other major
nominations though* suggests it barely snuck in the field and will be quick to
fall out. Here's the thing. A lot of seasons were delayed by COVID. The
Crown is the only other Drama series nominee that I know will have another
season ready in time. The Handmaid's Tale, Killing Eve, and Stranger
Things are all on the downswing of Emmy favor. What new shows are really
knocking The Mandalorian off?
*The next
biggest nomination The Mandalorian got was in Guest Actor which is more
of a Giancarlo Esposito nomination than a Mandalorian nomination.
Steve
Carrell finally wins an Emmy.
This is
probably going to have to come from The Morning Show, unless Space
Force takes a massive leap in the second season. This year, he was
miscategorized as a lead on The Morning Show, which he only really was
for one episode. That no doubt hurt him. Either next season, he'll wisely move
down to Supporting where I think the "remember how Steve Carrell never won
for The Office" chatter will get louder, or the show gives him more
to do after blowing everything up in the season one finale.
There you
go. 10 predictions that all could happen. I'd like to include a few more about
upcoming series like HBO's The Gilded Age or the hundred shows on
Netflix's schedule, but I don't trust when any will actually be
released/completed or, in the case of Netflix shows, what will actually hit. I
mean, remember when Maniac sounded like a slam dunk? See you next year.