Movie Reaction: Rush

Formula: Days of Thunder + Formula One Racing

 Why I Saw It: I always want to like Ron Howard movies. This one is getting solid reviews and despite my lack of interest in Formula One racing, the story sounded interesting.

Cast: You'll see at the end of the movie how well cast Chris Hemsworth and Daniel Bruhl for how much they actually look like the people. They do a great job playing the ying to the other's yang. Hemsworth is a likable party boy who races for the thrill. Bruhl is an asshole who is very good at what he does. It is immediately clear why they don't like each other (and why they come to respect one another) which is what matters the most in this. Olivia Wilde is sadly cast as a pretty face. She gets a couple scenes but is featured far less than the previews suggest. Alexandra Maria Lara plays Bruhl's wife and she's probably the third lead in this, but it's a steep drop after the two racers, understandably.

Plot: First of all, this does a very good job letting people know what they need to about Formula One racing. For as little as I knew or cared, I was rarely confused. More importantly, the rivalry and the characters built made my lack of interest in Formula One racing insignificant. It follows both racers from when they first began on the circuit primarily focusing on the 1976 season. Bruhl's Niki Lauda narrates the movie but it stays neutral about the two racers. If anything, Lauda is harshest on himself. The character proudly admits all his perceived flaws (He doesn't want to be liked because he'd rather be feared. He's arrogant because he's better). Hemsworth's Jon Hunt is selfish and irresponsible. It is clear that he is a liability to everyone around him, on and off the track. The movie is design a little more to make people root for Hunt because, well, he is the likable one. That doesn't mean Louda is the villain though. In fact, he becomes the more sympathetic character by the end. It's a well-balanced movie.

Elephant in the Room: I don't like Formula One racing. I don't like Nascar. There's nothing for me here. Stop being ignorant. Horse racing isn't my preference but I loved Seabiscuit. Baseball's not my game, but I'm not heartless, so Field of Dreams moved me. This is a movie about a rivalry that drives excellence and what drives people to succeed. The fact that it is a racing movie just means it'll be loud and have slick shots of fast cars occasionally.

To Sum Things Up:
I enjoyed this movie a lot. I checked off every box for what I'd expect and hope for in the movie, from a good story, strong acting, accomplished direction, tight sound editing (whatever that means), and all those other good things that people like in movies. It may not top any lists but it might make my top ten when all is said and done. Do yourself a favor and see it, unless you are going to see Gravity instead, or Captain Phillips, or Carrie...Boy, October is looking good.

Verdict (?): Weakly Recommend

Delayed Reaction: Sex and the City 2

The Pitch: The first movie did well despite bad reviews. Who's to say that won't happen again.

What Took Me So Long: I barely wanted to see the first movie and I wanted to see this dramatically less than that one, so what you should be asking is what in god's name made me decide to watch it ever.

Why I Saw It: (Club 50) A "know your enemy" mindset was a lot of my reason for seeing this. Even more than that, however, I wanted to understand how this could be worse than the first movie.

Why I Wish I Hadn't: All in all, I thought the show had a pretty good ending. The first movie undid a lot of that and gave the series a weaker ending. This movie undid that and gave the series a mediocre ending. Anyone clamoring for there to be another must regret what they got. I could go on about how awful this was, but that would be more words than this is worth.

Verdict (?): Strongly Don't Recommend

Delayed Reaction: Tucker: The Man and His Dream

The Pitch: The American dream as a car manufacturing drama.

What Took Me So Long: Until I saw this in my Club 50 list, I had never before heard of this movie in my life.

Why I Saw It: (Club 50) You've got Francis Ford Coppola directing and Jeff Bridges as the lead. While neither are immune from making a bad movie, that's a good start. I was continually struck by how much this felt like the inspiration for both Seabiscuit and The Aviator (the latter more than the former). It's an earnest movie and I respect that about it. Basically, Tucker has a dream for a better car and has to fight the people with the greater resources standing in his way. That's it and that's all it needs to be.

Why I Wish I Hadn't: Ok, this is one of those cases where the supreme ignorance of people really bothers me. So, the enemy of this movie is the big three automakers who do everything they can to shut Tucker down. Now, I'm not trying to pretend that [since this is based on a true story after all] they weren't actually being douches about this and trying to hold him down, but the hammer they do it with is litigation. This movie is basically against good capitalism versus bad capitalism and you know what the bad capitalism is? Government capitalism, better known as, something that doesn't exist in an actual free market...sorry. I'm going to stop there.

Verdict (?): Weakly Recommend

Delayed Reaction: Katy Perry: Part of Me

The Pitch: It worked for Miley and Bieber, why not Katy?

What Took Me So Long: Considering I don't think anyone expected me to watch this ever and it came out last summer, I don't think "so long" is an appropriate question.

Why I Saw It: Fuck you! I like Katy Perry. I was in the mood for a documentary and didn't feel like one about how the world is going to shit or how corn syrup will kill us all. A more analytic reason I could give is that I was surprised by how much I enjoyed the Justin Bieber documentary a while back and wanted to compare this one. Her origin story is a somewhat interesting one in that she was banging around for years before shooting to fame. It helps the story too that they filmed this while her marriage was falling apart. That kept it interesting. Frankly though, I like her music well enough and the concert footage is a pretty impressive production so that stuff kept it from getting stale.

Why I Wish I Hadn't: Her story isn't as interesting as Bieb's. His YouTube-infused rise to fame is really different. Perry basically bounced around a couple studios until one gave her a chance. It was surprising how little they had to say about "I Kissed a Girl" and how that blasted her to superstardom. Basically, "she chose the single and you know the rest" is the full story. This movie isn't intended to be masterful storytelling though. It was effective in all the ways it needed to be.

Verdict (?): Weakly Recommend

Delayed Reaction: World Trade Center

The Pitch: It's not too soon, is it? No, no...maybe a bit, but no, it's fine.

What Took Me So Long: I didn't think it would be very interesting.

Why I Saw It: (Club 50) I think the actors all do a good job. This movie is far more "America, Fuck Yeah!" than anything else, which has its place. In 2006, this is the only movie about this that could be made. The production is certainly impressive and almost never crosses the line of bad taste.

Why I Wish I Hadn't: The problem with a movie like this is that it takes a while to make a story like this interesting. Real life is never like a movie, which isn't a judgment call, just a fact. Since it was made so soon after the actual events on 9/11, the movie is more concerned about honoring the actual men and women who lived and died than telling a story. Unlike the far superior United 93, this is a big Hollywood production and plays out like one. There's heroes and heart-swelling moments and as low as the lows are, it never sits on them for long enough to make people uncomfortable (so completely the opposite of United 93. Seriously, that movie will ruin your day). In 50 years, when everyone involved is either dead or so far removed by time to get up in arms (think, Pearl Harbor or Schindler's List), I think there's probably a really good version of this movie to be made. This attempt is marred by being made too soon. This could've turned out so much worse though.

Verdict (?): Weakly Don't Recommend

Emmy Predictions 2014

I got a little too bold last year (Vegas. Seriously?) so I think I will hold back from as many bold proclamations this time around.

1. Breaking Bad repeats for the win. It's gonna look a lot like 2007 with The Sopranos. Bryan Cranston is a lock to get his fourth trophy. Aaron Paul, Dean Norris, and Anna Gunn all get nominations with at least on of them winning.

2. Modern Family loses doesn't win anything the night of the main ceremony, specifically, for Outstanding Comedy series.

3. The Colbert Report does not repeat. I'm not sure if The Daily Show will swoop back in or if another show (Portlandia, perhaps) swoops in.

4. NBC keeps its spot in Outstanding Comedy Series without 30 Rock. Be it the return of Parks & Rec. or a new series jumping in (Michael J Fox Show?), NBC will not break its 32 year streak with at least one  Comedy Series nomination.

5. Assuming it premieres in time, Louie declines its nomination count.

6. Tarran Killam and one of the female cast members get nominations in Supporting categories for SNL.

7. Orange is the New Black carries its buzz to the Golden Globes but fizzles out by the time the Emmy come back around. It does not get a best comedy nomination.

8. Sundance Channel stays a player in the Mini-Series game.

9. Network dramas continue the cold streak in the Outstanding Drama field.

10. And, to keep with the tradition, I'll have seen at least one of the Mini-Series/TV Movie nominees.

DVR Purge: 9/18-9/24

Yep. New shows are back and apparently, Tuesday will be the killer. With any luck, I'll be getting this switched back to twice a week. One thing I am almost certain of is that I'm not likely to keep these for Wednesday.
 

Past Purges

The Bridge "Take the Ride, Pay the Toll"
First of all, that title makes me think of the "Troll toll to get in that boy's soul" from It's Always Sunny, so I keep giggling about this episode because I'm apparently 10 years old. I'm assuming that Hastings' master plan has played out now and I could not be more underwhelmed. Sure, he did kill Gus which is a punch in the gut for the series. He will be missed. The way that he shrunk down to nothing when his grand scheme was foiled by Sonya shooting Marco was pathetic. I'm leaving room to believe the writers still have a trick or two up their sleeves but this continues to play out in ways that I am not interested in.

Breaking Bad "Granite State"
Walter White, you prideful bastard. I'm back to not being sure how this ends. There's not enough time. There's never been enough time. How to this end in a single episode, super-sized or not? I've never been able to leave the Walter White team. I'm still rooting for him although scared to examine the reasons too closely why I don't see him as as much of a monster as I should. Then there's Jesse. I am hoping for something huge from him in the last episode. Killing Andrea is as cold as it gets. And the near escape. I knew he wouldn't escape, not on the first try. It still killed me a little on the inside when they catch him. Skylar too, and Marie, and Flynn. So many characters have to get their ending. I am so incredibly excited to see how this all plays out.

HIMYM "The Locket"
I think I'm going to like the Mother. I get the feeling that she is meeting all of the cast before Ted and so far, she did well with Lily, getting along quite naturally. I hope she is in every episode in some way. Her origin story is one of the things I'm most interested to see.

HIMYM "Coming Back"
Neither episode was great but they are giving me exactly what I want from the season: the Mother. This one gave me something better: the Mother and Ted together. That alone is enough to say this is one of the better episodes in a while. I'm way more excited for this season than the show has earned after the past few years, but I don't care. As for all non-Mother storylines, they are really trying to make Barney and Robin seems like a good couple and I'll buy it because I'm tired of picking at things. Oh, and I was quite tickled by "the Kennedy Package".

Mom "Pilot"
Holy crap. Lay of the laugh track for, like, 2 seconds. My god, so much canned laughter. I get that multi-cam shows are going to use a laugh track and they'll use it a lot, but this was outright distracting. I'm happy to give the show a few more episodes for cast alone. I'm not sure I can stick with it though if the laugh track is going to be so overbearing.

S.H.I.E.L.D. "Pilot"
You can really see all the Joss Whedon of it especially in Coulson and Skye. Hopefully Joss can stay involved enough to still see his fingerprints. This is far from a finished product. I think it has potential, like a cross between Fringe and NCIS and the structure is there to develop. I just hope the audience stays long enough for it to figure itself out. I would like to see as many Cobie Smulders cameos as possible.

Dads "Heckuva Job, Brownie"
...no. Just, no. If I watch this any longer, all it will be is hate-watching. I want to like it for Mull, Green, Song, Ribisi, but it is not good. Sorry.

Brooklyn Nine Nine "The Tagger"
This is still fleshing itself out. I'm really wondering how many non-serious crimes they can do before getting redundant. Granted, I realize the end game is by mid-season to not be focusing on the crimes. I though Andy Sandburg would annoy me as a lead more and he really doesn't at all. The cast is already starting to gel, so I'm excited about that.

New Girl "Jacooz"
-A big improvement from the premiere. This was like the Guest Star All Star edition of New Girl (Dreama Walker, Angela Kinsey, Brenda Song, Eva Amurri, Meredith Weaver are the ones I can name).
-They are also fleshing out Winston's over-pranking way more than I assumed possible. At least it's a consistent character though, so I approve...hesitantly.
-I'm not sure what was the bigger laugh, the guys singing "I believe I can fly" or cats loving Schmidt's nipples.
-While I'm on the subject of Schmidt. Oh god, I am immediately over this Schmidt "two dates" thing! Make it stop, please.
-Finally, I get it, Fox. New Girl is the Tuesday "hit", but that's a dick move causing the tags to get cut off at the beginning and end. Thankfully, I DVR the whole night.

The Mindy Project "The Other Dr. L"
Things that I enjoyed from this week: 1) The whip cream bikini fail. 2) The use of "I'm Shipping Up for Boston". 3) The Kris Humphries cameo and Mindy's continued infatuation with NBA players. 4) Bill Hader's keeping himself busy. 5) They gave us the right amount of James Franco.

Trophy Wife "Pilot"
I think I'll stick with this for a while. It wants to thrive in chaos and has the pieces there to do it successfully. This is the most I've liked Malin Akerman in anything and I'm always happy to see Bradley Whitford. Something I also noticed is how utterly female dominated the cast is and how refreshing that was. I'm hoping this goes the way of Modern Family's ratings, not Happy Endings'. Oh, they can drop the voice-over narration though, please.

Emmy Predictions 2013: Results

For the second year in a row, I posted some predictions about the next year's Emmys hours after the ceremonies ended. I was half right last year. Let's see how I did this time.

Prediction: Modern Family is dethroned and doesn't pull another 6 supporting acting nominations.
Reasoning: Other than Frasier, Comedies don't dominate for this long, and, any fan of comedy knows that the competition is too stiff for this dominance to last.
Reality: Modern Family Certainly took a hit. It lost a supporting actor nomination and got no acting wins. It still won for best comedy though. (+.5)

Prediction: Dennis Quaid pulls a lead acting nomination for Las Vegas.

Reasoning: CBS was trying to do a prestige drama and got a bonafide movie star as the centerpiece. This seemed like a Kevin Spacey lock.
Reality: The show had disastrous ratings and didn't last. It also tried to serve too many masters and failed to be prestige or procedural. (+0)

Prediction: Homeland doesn't repeat.

Reasoning: The show was a tight-rope act throughout its entire first season. There was no way it could keep that up.
Reality: At the beginning, it seemed like it might but the second half of the season was too rough and the competition too much. (+1)

Prediction: Parks and Recreation makes it's way back into the Best Comedy field.

Reasoning: True, it fell out of the Best Comedy field in 2012, but it had two writing nominations to go with Pohler's annual recognition, so it seemed likely to make its way back in when the shiny-newness of Veep or Girls went away.
Reality: It regressed even more in a move that firms my belief that the Emmys are unreliable (duh). (+0)

Prediction: No return in sight for the big 4 networks in the best Drama field.

Reasoning: None of the pilots looks good enough to break back in and none of the shows already on were jumping back in.
Reality: Totally correct there, although that was a gimme. (+1)

Prediction: Parker Posey pulls a guest acting nomination for her work on Louie.

Reasoning: Watch "Daddy's Girlfriend Part 2" and tell me she doesn't belong there.
Reality: They went for Oscar winner Melissa Leo from Louie instead. A fine pick, but the wrong one. (+0)

Prediction: Only one show from HBO lands a best Comedy nom,

Reasoning: I figured that they would tire of Girls or Veep wouldn't improve on its ok first season and would lose the newness factor.
Reality: Girls and Veep both improved on their first seasons and kept their places in the field, as they should. (+0)

Prediction: A Greg Daniels run Office returns to the best Comedy field.

Reasoning: With an end in sight and a return from the man that made it great for so long, The Office looked ready to put it together enough to earn one more look.
Reality: The show never got it together and squeaked by with a Writing nomination for the finale. (+0)

Prediction: Breaking Bad takes a big step back in nominations.


Reasoning: If the 4th season couldn't win I appeared likely that Breking Bad would begin regressing like Mad Men was. Also, season 5.1 wasn't as good (I think all 8 episodes had aired by then).
Reality: Totally miscalled this. It won for Outstanding Drama and stayed about even (maybe gained. I haven't counted) in the nominations and is the buzziest 5th season show ever. (+0)

Prediction: ...might as well try this again. I watch at least one of the Mini-Series/TV Movie nominations.
Reasoning: I can't keep avoiding these forever.
Reality: Apparently, I can. I came close to watching Top of the Lake but didn't watch it. (+0)

For those of you counting at home, that means I scored a 2.5/10 which is pretty horrible. Honestly, I'm more surprised by the 5.5 last year than the 2.5 this year. I'd expect the latter to be the case more often as I do these more.

Emmys 2013: Post-Mortem

I've pretty torn about this year's Emmys. There wasn't a lot to hate about it nor was there much to love. I wanted to do a standard 3, 3, and 3 breakdown of the Good, Bad, and Meh, like last year, but I mainly have a lot of Meh.

The Good

Veep
The second season season I thought was a major improvement for the series. My issue with Julia Louise Dreyfus winning is who it came at the expense of (in my opinion, there was no bad choice in that category). She and Tony Hale had some of the best speeches and briefly had me thinking Veep could sneak in and take down Modern Family.

Breaking Bad
This was not the most deserving season of the show to win and I'd've picked something like Game of Thrones or [yet another] for Mad Men for the seasons, but I will not gripe about Breaking Bad getting all the recognition it can. Lord knows it will next year. And, Anna Gunn's win was awesome in another one of those categories with no wrong choice.

The Bad

 

Modern Family
It's an ok show. That's all I can say in its favor. If it was a quaint little forgotten show like The Middle, I'd probably appreciate it more. As this Emmy gobbling juggernaut, I'm quick to explain why it is not even one of the best six comedies on TV and wholly undeserving of the praise. Eventually it will lose. At least the acting wins fell to some other people. That was nice.

Choreography
What was this doing in the Primetime Ceremony? Cut this out, do  a single In Memoriam, maybe skip the tribute the 1963 and maybe some of the winners don't have to be played off and the show ends on time. Just a thought.

The Meh

Jeff Daniels
I can't speak for the season, but I can speak for submission episodes which is how these are chosen. Daniels won for the speech at the beginning of the pilot. That speech is as showy as it gets and as far as thesis statements for shows go, that's about as good as you get. Daniels is an actor who I love and fin it criminal that he isn't more recognized. Because of that, I can't be angry about him winning. It's hard for me to see how it was more deserving than Cranston, Lewis, or Hamm. As for Spacey, my theory was if the voters were going for a showy performance by a Hollywood type, he'd be their pick over Daniels.

The Colbert Report
I can't think of a more deserving 10 time winner than The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. For what little I've watched of any of the Variety nominees, it still would have my vote. If anyone was going to end the streak, it would be Stephen Colbert.

Homeland
"Q&A" certainly deserved the writing win [of the episodes nominated]. I think Patinkin  had a good claim to Supporting Actor. Claire Danes is nowhere close to relinquishing her title. I'm happy for the successes of the show but ultimately pleased it didn't take home the big prize.

30 Rock
It got its writing win, but it deserved a bigger night.

Louie
I love all the nominations. It was always a longshot to win anywhere it hadn't already. I just worry that it will only go down from here.

Movie Reaction: Prisoners

Formula: Zodiac + answers

Why I Saw It: Slow weekend. Good Cast. Positive Reviews.

Cast: Jake Gyllenhaal does a great job here. It's obvious that there is a lot more to his character but the movie doesn't seem too concerned with explaining it. He's the detective handling the case and that's all that's important. He manages to be a good detective without being Batman, which was nice. Hugh Jackman is a father unhinged after his daughter goes missing. He's the worst case scenario about what can happen to a father whose daughter goes missing. Maria Bello plays the girl's mother and she is a different worst case scenario. Terrence Howard and Viola Davis has much smaller roles. Their daughter goes missing as well and they are the far more reasonably responding parents. Paul Dano is a suspect with something to hide and plays it as you'd expect him to. Then there Melissa Leo who doesn't get nearly as much screen time, at least initially, as I'd assumed.

Plot: It's a mystery/thriller so I can only speak about this in broad strokes. When it all comes together, I was mostly pleased. Most of it all follows and the connections made during the investigation all make sense. I accidentally guessed a couple of the twists early on which doesn't normally happens. I don't know if that is a fluke or a bad sign. I'm leaning toward the former. The investigation elements are handled better than grief of the families missing the daughters. They aim a little big there. It's a grim movie and almost everything happens while raining or at night, so don't expect a lot cheerful imagery. I have to say I did rather love how it ended.

Elephant in the Room: How long is it? Yeah, it's two and a half hours long which is generally a run time associated with movies that use the word "epic" in the summary. I didn't mind the length too much, but to make the length worth it, they have to stuff it with a complex enough case to justify it and that gets a little exhausting. After about 2 hours I did start to wonder how much more they could add to it. In other words, be aware that it is long. If you come ready for that it is worthwhile.

To Sum Things Up:
I liked this a good deal. This is some of the best work I've seen from Hugh Jackman and Jake Gyllenhaal. It is a detective movie that gets it right. This does not seem like something that could be covered in an episode of SVU as so many in this genre do. I feel bad for it because it is in the sweet-spot where it isn't prestige enough to be an awards player and it's too dark to be a breakout hit (although it didn't open first this weekend, so maybe I could be surprised).

Verdict (?): Weakly Recommend

2013 Emmy Preview: Prediction Recap

I already forgot all the picks I made for the Emmys so I decided to compile a list because I think I've made it clear that I love lists. Some of the awards have already been given out so I've marked those already. So far, it's not looking very good.

If you are looking for my full examinations, which, let's be honest, you know you are, here's the links to those.
Creative Arts Emmys
Mini-Series/TV Movie 
Variety Series
Drama Series
Comedy Series
 
Comedy Series - 30 Rock
Drama Series - Homeland
MiniSeries/TV Movie - Behind the Candelabra
Variety Series - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Reality Competition - The Amazing Race
Lead Actor in a Comedy - Alex Baldwin
Lead Actress in a Comedy - Julia Louise Dreyfus
Lead Actor in a Drama - Damian Lewis
Lead Actress in a Drama - Claire Danes
Lead Actor in a MiniSeries/TV Movie - Michael Douglas
Lead Actress in a MiniSeries/TV Movie - Jessica Lange
Supporting Actor in a Comedy - Ed O'Neill
Supporting Actress in a Comedy - Sofia Vergara
Supporting Actor in a Drama - Aaron Paul
Supporting Actress in a Drama - Anna Gunn
Supporting Actor in a MiniSeries/TV Movie - Scott Bakula
Supporting Actress in a MiniSeries/TV Movie - Ellen Burstyn
Directing in a Comedy - Modern Family
Directing in a Variety Series - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Directing in a MiniSeries/TV Movie - Behind the Candelabra
Writing in a Comedy - LouieDirecting in a Drama -House of Cards
Writing in a Drama - Homeland
Writing in a Variety Series - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Writing in a MiniSeries/TV Movie - Behind the Candelabra
Reality Series Host - Tom Bergeron Heidi Klum & Tim Gunn
Reality Program - Undercover Boss
Variety Special - The Kennedy Center Honors
Guest Actor in a Comedy Series - Justin Timberlake Bob Newhart
Guest Actress in a Comedy Series - Melissa McCarthy Melissa Leo
Guest Actor in a Drama Series - Michael J Fox Dan Bucatinsky
Guest Actress in a Drama Series - Jane Fonda Carrie Preston*

*In my defense, my list was missing her for some reason. That's not to say I would've picked her anyway.

2013 Emmy Preview: Comedy Series

This year is completely up in the air. There's always a chance that Modern Family continues a Frasier-esque reign of terror, but its nominations are down. Meanwhile, 30 Rock is a waking giant and Louie, Veep, and Girls are picking up speed. Even Big Bang Theory doesn't feel like a stretch. This could be a fun year.

Creative Arts Emmys
Mini-Series/TV Movie 
Variety Series
Drama Series

A quick run down of how this works: I've ordered each category from most to least likely to win, in my eyes. I've also noted my personal favorite to win and who I think was the most worthy overlooked potential nominee for most categories.

Comedy Series
30 Rock - Former three time winner (2007-2009). It picked up nominations this year and had a fantastic final season. Given falling favor for Modern Family, I see this getting a goodbye win like Everybody Loves Raymond (2005).
Modern Family - Reigning three time winner with a season that wasn't noticeably worse than the one before it. The snub for writing is not shocking based on previous years but only one Directing nomination and no nomination for two time winner Eric Stonestreet (2010, 2012) leads me to wonder if Emmy fatigue is finally setting in.
[My Favorite] Louie - This show has been picking up steady recognition, finally getting a series recognition this year for its excellent third season. The only thing hurting its chances is that veteran series tend to not win on their first nominations.
Veep - This picked up a lot of nominations over last year. Perhaps I'm underestimating its chances. HBO has had an upward battle here only winning once for Sex and the City (2001) in six attempts (1999-2004) and no wins for The Larry Sanders Show (1993-1998) and Curb Your Enthusiasm (2002-2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012).
Girls - See my reasoning for Veep and as much as I like Girls, I think it is one of those "if it doesn't win early, it won't win ever" shows like Glee...god, I hate comparing Girls to Glee.
The Big Bang Theory - I could be wrong but this show will never will. Sheer ratings force demands the nomination but that rarely forces a win.
Biggest Oversight: Parks and Recreation - I still cannot explain how it got a nomination for best series (2011) and fell out of the field. This continues to be one of the 2 or 3 best comedies on TV. Thankfully, the others in the shortlist did make it in the field.

Lead Actor - Comedy
Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock ("A Goon's Deed in a Weary World") - He's absolutely the frontrunner. This is a great submission episode for a two-time winner (2008, 2009) and I'm predicting a big year for 30 Rock.
[My Favorite] Louie C.K. - Louie ("Daddy's Girlfriend Part 1") - This would require beating some heavyweights in the category. With last year's winner (Jon Cryer) not getting nominated, that leaves no reigning winner to combat and between Louie and Oh My God! he has racked up the nominations. This would still be an upset, but maybe not as big of one as it seems.
Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory ("The Habitation Configuration") - Another two-time winner (2010, 2011). You can never count him out.Jason Bateman - Arrested Development ("Flight of the Phoenix") - The lone major nominee for an, in my opinion, unfairly criticized season. The only way he is winning though is if voters get blinded by the bright lights of Hollywood like they did for Melissa McCarthy in 2011.
Don Cheadle - House of Lies ("Hostile Takeover") - If the movie star allure was going to get him a win, it would've happened last year. Now, he's just a big name on a mediocre show.
Matt LeBlanc - Episodes ("The Affair") - He didn't win in 2011. Most people don't know what Episodes is. And, there's a year gap between nominations. In short, it won't happen.
Biggest Oversight: Jake Johnson - New Girl - In this age of ensemble comedies, this is actually a fairly light field. Johnson was good, but I don't know if I'd call him a lead. His supporting work is better than anything Cheadle or LeBlanc has did though.

Lead Actress - Comedy
Julia Louis-Dreyfus - Veep ("Running") - She won last year and the show is gaining momentum. It's hard to see her losing.
Tina Fey - 30 Rock ("Hogcock!/Last Lunch") - She's won before (2008) which seems low. With 30 Rock looking to have a comeback year with the Emmys, I could see her returning to the winners' circle.
[My Favorite] Lena Dunham - Girls ("Bad Friend") - Of all the hats she wears (producer, writer, director, actor), this is the one I think she's most likely to be recognized with a win. Stiff competition though.
Amy Poehler - Parks & Recreation ("Leslie and Ben") - If the world was a fair place, she'd have a shelf of these by now. At this point, I'd be happy with one.
Laura Dern - Enlightened ("All I Ever Wanted") - Voters noticed enough to give her a nomination. I haven't been able to watch this show yet but from what I hear, it you be a shame if she didn't win, but I doubt that's in the cards.
Edie Falco - Nurse Jackie ("Luck of the Drawing") - Sure, she won before (2010). That seems more like a fluke now than a sign it'll happen again. This is such a strong field though, I could see anyone here winning and it would feel reserved.

Biggest Oversight: Zooey Deschanel - New Girl - I was sad although not surprised to see her fall from the field. She is doing good work on New Girl and it is one of the better comedies on TV.

Supporting Actor - Comedy
Ed O'Neill - Modern Family ("Bringing Up Baby") - No Eric Stonestreet makes this tough to call. I could go with Burrell, but I'm going to keep betting on the spread the wealth theory for this cast.
Ty Burrell - Modern Family ("Mistery Date") - He has won before (2011) and is perhaps the least problematic character on the show which means he's probably the favorite if I was being logical. I hated his submission episode though. I don't have it in me to pick him to win.
[My Favorite] Adam Driver - Girls ("It's Back") - He was so good in this season that I have to believe he stands a chance to win. His submission episode could polarize voters though.
Bill Hader - Saturday Night Live ("Host: Seth McFarlane") - It's his final season and he was nominated last year. That's about all I see working in his favor.
Jesse Tyler Ferguson - Modern Family ("The Wow Factor") - He's been nominated ever year he's been eligible (2010-2013) and never won. I used to think he was too subtle to win. Now I think he's too whiny (the way he's written).
Tony Hale - Veep ("Running") - Sheer visibility between Veep and Arrested Development and good work on both surely got him nominated. I don't think there's enough for a win.
Biggest Oversight: Nick Offerman - Parks & Recreation - How in god's name has he never been nominated and in turn won? This is embarrassing. While we're on the subject of Parks & Rec, where's Chris Pratt's nomination? Ridiculous.

Supporting Actress - Comedy
Sofia Vergara - Modern Family ("Yard Sale") - I've thought she was the frontrunner every year (2010-2013) and she's yet to win. One of these days I have to be right. Don't I?
Julie Bowen - Modern Family ("My Hero") - I like Julie Bowen a lot. I have for years. I don't get how she keeps winning this (2011, 2012). I shouldn't bet against her.
Anna Chlumsky - Veep ("First Response") - If voters are looking for another way to honor Veep, my bet would be by giving My Girl a win.
[My Favorite] Jane Krakowski - 30 Rock ("Hogcock/Last Lunch") - She's been nominated before (2009-2011) taking a break last year. I would not be at all surprised to see her win.
Mayim Bialik - The Big Bang Theory ("The Fish Guts Displacement") - This is The Jim Parsons Show.
Jane Lynch - Glee ("Feud") - She is a former winner (2010), but on a show that has seen better days
Merritt Wever - Nurse Jackie ("Teachable Moments") - Simply put, nope.
Biggest Oversight: I got this down to three and I'm proud I narrowed it down that much. Elisha Cuthbert (Happy Endings) is the stealth MVP of her show. Aubrey Plaza (Parks & Recreation) is the not so secret weapon on hers. Jenna Fischer (The Office) is the beating heart of her, especially since Steven Carrell left.

Directing - Comedy
Modern Family - "Arrested" - It has won this the past two years (2011, 2012), should've won in 2010, and is a show that lives and dies based on its direction. Even if Modern Family can't keep Best Comedy I see it winning here.
[My Favorite] Louie - "New Year's Eve" - I think Louie will win for something other than writing. It's just hard to say which category.
30 Rock - "Hogcock!/Last Lunch" - The only thing stopping be from calling this the dark horse is that 30 Rock hasn't won here ever despite multiple nominations from 2007-2011.
Girls - "On All Fours" - I think people value Lena Dunham more for writing and acting.
Glee - "Diva" - They should be happy to still be getting nominated.
Biggest Oversight: Parks & Recreation "Leslie and Ben" - I'm getting redundant but where is the love!? Parks and Rec has never been nominated here before. I shouldn't be surprised.

Writing - Comedy
[My Favorite] Louie - "Daddy's Girlfriend Part 1" - He won last year for a far inferior episode last year. I'm betting that was no fluke.
30 Rock - "Last Lunch" - If it was a fluke last year, then I'm picking a the final episode of a former winner (2008, 2009) that had an all time great final season.
30 Rock - "Hogcock!" - ...or the penultimate episode of that series.
The Office - "Finale" - It won before (2007) and pilots and finales are favorites of Emmy voters.
Episodes - "Episode 209" - Raise your hand if you even know when this show was on.
Biggest Oversight: Parks & Recreation - "Leslie and Ben" - There's no history of P&R nominations for directing, but last year they pulled two writing nominations. Overlooking this is criminal.

2013 Emmy Preview: Drama Series

I'm very curious to see how this plays out. Homeland is the reigning winner and picked up nominations. Breaking Bad is gaining as well though. Mad Men still has a solid haul. House of Cards is the hot new series. Game of Thrones is even riding some momentum from a great season. Only Downton Abbey appears to have lost some support.

Creative Arts Emmys
Mini-Series/TV Movie
Variety Series 

A quick run down of how this works: I've ordered each category from most to least likely to win, in my eyes. I've also noted my personal favorite to win and who I think was the most worthy overlooked potential nominee for most categories.

Drama Series
Homeland - I have no idea what way this is going. If there was a year to expect a surprise winner here, this is it. That said, I'm not going to bet against last year's winner after it picked up acting nominations. I may not even remotely agree with this winning for such an inconsistent season, but it does seem most likely.
Breaking Bad - There is a groundswell of buzz for this show going into it's final "half" season. It's kept its nomination haul from last year. It is unfathomable to think seasons 3 or 4 couldn't win but 5.1 could, but that's the way it works.
[My Favorite] Game of Thrones - Sure, it's a genre show in its third season. It did gain a supporting actress nomination for Emilia Clarke which shocked and pleased me to see. The lack of Directing nominations hurts. This show is still a dark horse.
Mad Men - It still has a decent nomination haul and there's a chance that last year's loss was a fluke. There is the fact that no drama has never one this 5 times working against it and I think voters are tiring of it, despite still being one of the best shows on TV.
House of Cards - It's possible that it wins. It's the only unknown commodity in the field. The competition is so still though.
Downtown Abbey - If it didn't win last year, it won't now. This show was red hot last year. Now it's just another good show on TV.
Biggest Oversight: Rectify - I only recently caught up on the series and it was so good. It's a subtle series and I love how it is in no hurry. I thought about Hannibal too because it is such a pretty show or Shameless, but it is more of a comedy.

Lead Actor - Drama
Damian Lewis - Homeland ("Q&A") - He may have not had the best season of anyone nominated, but in a world of submission episodes dictating the voting, he has the best showcase of anyone with "Q&A". This category will certainly indicate how Best Drama will go.
[My Favorite] Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad ("Say My Name") - Great submission episode. He dominated this category for 3 years. It wouldn't shock me if voters aren't done with him. He'd deserve it, even if it is boring.
Jeff Daniels - The Newsroom ("We Just Decided To") - Can one speech win an Emmy. He chose the pilot episode with starts with his rebuttal to why American is/isn't the greatest country on Earth that people keep discovering and loving. Assume that if he pulls off the upset that that is why.
Jon Hamm - Mad Men ("In Care of") - He should have a win by now, but I've given up on assuming he will ever get one. The late season can't help voters either.
Kevin Spacey - House of Cards ("Chapter 1") - Again, I don't know how this show will play with voters. Spacey is a movie star gracing TV with his presence and that cannot be ignored.
Hugh Bonneville - Downton Abbey ("Episode Five") - He is the only nominee I've heard no one talk about.
Biggest Oversight: Aden Young - Rectify - What he does in this show is so understated that I can't assume the Emmy voters would ever notice. He certainly belongs with those listed above.

Lead Actress - Drama
[My Favorite] Claire Danes - Homeland ("Q&A") - This is an absolute lock. No question about it.
Elisabeth Moss - Mad Men ("The Better Half") - Danes will win, so who I pick second doesn't matter. I still like to believe Moss can win one of these days. Sadly, she didn't have enough to do this season for a lead win.
Robin Wright - House of Cards ("Chapter 10") - Only is House of Cards is an Emmy sensation.
Connie Britton - Nashville ("Pilot") - Only if voters use this as a makeup call for FNL.
Vera Farminga - Bates Motel ("Fist You Dream, The You Die") - She's a former Oscar nominee with a $100 million movie in theaters. That cannot be ignored. Remember Melissa Mccarthy in 2011?
Michelle Dockery - Downton Abbey ("Episode One") - Downton Abbey still has some supporters left.
Kerry Washington - Scandal ("Happy Birthday Mr. President") - The show's buzz got her the nomination. I can't see it doing any more than that.
Biggest Oversight: Emmy Rossum - Shameless - Of the shows I have seen, she is absolutely the most unjustly overlooked. Now if Shameless ever accepts that it is a comedy, she could get a nomination and a win. I also want to say that I want to see Orphan Black so much so that I can experience Tatiana Maslany's performance that I've heard so much about.

Supporting Actor - Drama
Aaron Paul - Breaking Bad ("Buyout") - Won the past two times he's been eligible. Submitting as supporting despite being a co-lead. It's his to lose.
[My Favorite] Mandy Patinkin - Homeland ("The Choice") - Even if Homeland doesn't maintain its dominance, Patinkin has a great shot of winning. In a show of great performances, at time's his was the best. Thankfully, he used "The Choice" as his submission. Seriously, look at his face at the end of the episode and tell me he isn't the best choice for this.
Peter Dinklage - Game of Thrones ("Second Sons") - Former winner. Possibly his best season yet. I think people are underestimating GoT this year and if that's so, he could win this.
Jonathan Banks - Breaking Bad ("Say My Name") - It is so hard to get people to appreciate what he does on this show when there are so many showier performances. I'm happy he even got nominated.
Bobby Cannavale - Boardwalk Empire ("Sunday Best") - I don't watch the show so I can't say that I know how good he was in it. I'm still putting him lower on the list.
Jim Carter - Downton Abbey ("Episode Six") - I'm calling it. This is a down year for the Abbey.
Biggest Oversight: Mads Mikkelsen - Hannibal - He is playing the same role that won Anthony Hopkins an Oscar and excelling at it. That alone should make him worth considering.

Supporting Actress - Drama
Anna Gunn - Breaking Bad ("Fifty-One") - I honestly think Emmy voters will notice that this isn't the Walt and Jesse show.
Maggie Smith - Downton Abbey ("Episode One") - As much as people love Maggie Smith if it's her versus the field, I'm picking the field.
Emilia Clarke - Game of Thrones ("And Now His Watch is Ended") - She has a great submission episode. Even with limited screen time (the downfall of most actors hoping for awards attention on GoT), she can pull off a win.
Morena Baccarin - Homeland ("State of Independence") - The gap between Mandy Patinkin as third fiddle and Baccarin as fourth fiddle is a gaping chasm that will be hard for her to overcome.
[My Favorite] Christina Hendricks - Mad Men ("A Tale of Two Cities") - I've given up assuming Mad Men will even be appreciated in the acting fields.
Christine Baranski - The Good Wife ("The Seven Day Rule") - She keeps getting nominations but does anyone actually think she's ever going to win?
Biggest Oversight: Monica Potter - Parenthood - She played the cancer card. That should've at least been worth a nomination. I really wanted to point out Adelaide Clemens - Rectify too. She was killed by being on a low profile show with a short season and wasn't even important in half the episodes. The moments she did get were stellar though.

Directing - Drama
House of Cards - "Chapter 1" - Directed by David Fincher, like Martin Scorsese for Boardwalk Empire two years ago, should be enough to secure a win.
Boardwalk Empire - "Margate Sands" - It has won this the past two years so I can't count it out.
[My Favorite] Breaking Bad - "Gliding All Over" - I'm feeling a growing Breaking Bad storm coming. This is also a super pretty episode.
Homeland - "Q&A" - This feels low as my fourth choice but that's how it is playing out when I look at it. This is a close field.
Downton Abbey - "Episode Four" - I haven't seen this so I don't know at all how to place this, so by default, I'm picking this last.
Biggest Oversight: Mad Men "The Crash" - I know what you're thinking: "How did no Mad Men episodes get nominated? That's a bad sign for the greater Best Drama chances for Mad Men and more importantly a horrible choice resulting from voter fatigue. I'd've picked this over virtually any of this year's nominees.
 

Writing - Drama
Homeland - "Q&A" - I think people will only see as far as the interrogation scenes of this episode and for that reason, I'm calling it the frontrunner.
Breaking Bad - "Say My Name" - Strong as hell episodes with a great opening scene. If Breaking Bad is a runaway, I think this is the one that benefits in this category.
[My Favorite] Game of Thrones - "The Rains of Castamere" - One of the most effective episodes of a show all season. If emotions run high over the end, this could sneak a win.
Breaking Bad - "Dead Freight" - This should be here for directing but I'll accept writing. The train heist is masterful but I don't know if the writing of it will be appreciated as much as the direction.
Downton Abbey - "Episode Four" - Again, I haven't seen the show, so I can't say where this belongs so I will choose the known quantity over the unknown.
Biggest Oversight: Mad Men  - "In Care Of" - If you are looking for the biggest indicator that Mad Men will not repeat, it would be the fact that the best written show on TV, that had 13 writing nominations in its first five seasons got completely snubbed this year.

2013 Emmy Preview: Variety Series

Good. Back to some shows with some continuity that I've seen before. I may do a better job here, especially since it's a rather predictable group.

Creative Arts Emmys
Mini-Series/TV Movie
 
A quick run down of how this works: I've ordered each category from most to least likely to win, in my eyes. I've also noted my personal favorite to win and who I think was the most worthy overlooked potential nominee for most categories.

Variety Series
[My Favorite] The Daily Show with Jon Stewart - Seeking its -insane- 11th win in a row. It was an election year too. Even if you want to suggest the Jon Oliver hosting could somehow hurt it, those episodes count for next year. I feel good about this pick.
The Colbert Report - For nearly as long as The Daily Show has been dominant, The Colbert Report has been chomping at the bits. If any show dethrones the champ, it's gotta be this one.
Real Time with Bill Maher - It's been nominated every year since 2005. Eventually it may break through.
Saturday Night Live - Personally, I thought this was a strong season. It's hard to ever entirely count out a nearly 40 year veteran.
Late Night with Jimmy Fallon - He may be NBC's golden boy, but I'm yet to see anything to suggest he'll leapfrog over the other potential suitors for this award.
Jimmy Kimmel Live! - His show is such a quiet success story. I think they are happy with the nomination.
Biggest Oversight: Portlandia - It's absurd that this has yet to be nominated here. It is clearly one of the six best in this category, if not the best.

Hosting
Tom Bergeron (Danicng with the Stars) - I'll almost always pick the previous year's winner to repeat.
[My Favorite] Ryan Seacrest (American Idol) - I'm fairly surprised to find out that he hasn't won yet (Nominated 2008-2013). Maybe they'll throw him a bone.
Betty White (Betty White's Off Their Rockers) - The Betty White supernova of love seems to be cooling off. Perhaps one last hurrah is in order?
Heidi Klum & Tim Gunn (Project Runway) Ooo, two hosts. I didn't even think that's allowed. Maybe that's their secret weapon.
Anthony Bourdain (The Taste) - I see this guy's name everywhere and I'm never sure why.
Cat Deeley (So You Think You Can Dance) - She is a repeat nominee (2011, 2012, 2013).
Biggest Oversight: RuPaul Charles - RuPaul's Drag Race - This is bullshit. She He RuPaul is an awesome host.

Directing - Variety Series
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart - I can't think of a reason for it not to win.
The Colbert Report - As with everything in this area, it's perpetually The Daily Show's to lose, then it's the Colbert Report's.
Late Show with David Letterman - The show used to dominate there categories, so I always see it as a dark horse.
[My Favorite] Portlandia - Oh, I see. They'll nominate it for Directing but not for series.
Jimmy Kimmel Live! - Again, happy to be nominated.
Biggest Oversight: Saturday Night Live - This show's success is largely one of great direction. Being live does that.

Reality Competition
The Amazing Race - Since the category was created in 2003, The Amazing Race has won all but once (in 2010). I don't know why it is so dominate, but it is.
Top Chef - The one years The Amazing Race lost it was to Top Chef, so I'd say that makes this the most likely challenger.
The Voice - Super popular. Slightly improved structure. A lot of talent in the judges' chairs. I could see this sneaking in a win the way American Idol never could.
[My Favorite] Project Runway - It's been nominated every year since 2005.
So You Think You Can Dance - It keeps sticking around in the category, but I don't see it winning.
Dancing with the Stars - The host win was inspiring last year, but I'd think if the show couldn't win in its prime, it isn't likely to start now.
Biggest Oversight: RuPaul's Drag Race - This is way more original and entertaining that most of the actual nominees.

Writing - Variety Series
[My Favorite] The Daily Show with Jon Stewart - Another category that The Daily Show has been regularly dominating. On an election year, I'd be foolish to expect any other show to win.
The Colbert Report - This has been able to sneak a couple wins (2008, 2010) over The Daily Show so I'm keeping it as the dark horse.
Portlandia - Getting nominated is half the battle. The other half, is, of course, beating the other nominees.
Real Time with Bill Maher - One of these days it'll win something, right?
Saturday Night Live - It's so hit or miss and I expect more people to focus on the miss.
Jimmy Kimmel Live! - First sneak a win one year, then I'll start to consider it a contender.
Biggest Oversight: Conan - Oh, the other show to win during Comedy Central's reign of terror? That would be Late Night with Conan O'Brien (2007).

DVR Purge: 9/11-9/17

Fox's shows are back. This may have to switch to bi-weekly when everything else returns next week. We'll see.

Past Purges


The Bridge "Old Friends"
Well, it's official, unless the last three episodes of this season shift into overdrive, I will not be continuing past this season. The initial promise of a mysterious killer, playing games with police as part of some social commentary scheme has turned into a big bad who is too good at everything very inconsistent. They don't even bother to explain how Hastings is able to find, wreck, and kidnap Gus while himself remaining unscathed. I have no idea why he pretended to do this all for political reasons for a long time. I wish the performances and setting were enough to keep me going, but I've had my fill on revenge stories and master plans.

Burn Notice "Reckoning"
I wanted this finale to mean a lot more to me than it did. It's tough for a USA show to pull off a good ending since they work best as self-contained unit (at least, shows from the old model which Burn Notice is, despite its efforts otherwise). They handled it as best they could though, with a final hour of callbacks, both funny ("You know spies, a bunch of bitchy little girls.") to the hokey ("My name is Michael Westen. I used to be a spy"). We get one great emotional moment with Madeline (although it was a far cry from the one in the Monk finale (Jeffrey Donovan is no Tony Shalhoub). All the storylines are wrapped up very neatly. I don't think it's a secret though that I've not been a huge fan of this season. It tried too hard to be a tougher show. It worked so hard against its DNA that I barely felt like I was watching the same show. Look no further than the body count this season. Early on, Michael did everything he could to avoid hurting someone. This season, he was downing them like Jack Bauer. I'm not opposed to violence in a show. It just doesn't work for Burn Notice at these levels. Oh well. This was always an enjoyable show, even when it was forgettable. It tried doing things which USA shows hadn't before and succeeded it balancing the episodic and serial elements. As is the case with the best USA shows, the cast gelled so naturally and could save an episode with a well placed yogurt joke. Let's be honest, where else will a find a show with such an infinite supply of C4?

Breaking Bad "Ozymandias"
Oh, so that's how they did it. Suddenly, two hours seems like a wealth of time to meet Mr. Lambert and see Carol again.
For a moment, I was about to call bullshit that Hank was still alive, but it quickly became clear that the show just wanted to give him a more noble end. Quickly, I switched to calling Walt a moron for revealing the location of the money. In his final moments, Hank still manages to make Walt look like a small child and that is impressive. I realize that Hank is equal parts stubborn and moral which is his fatal flaw. Walt telling Jesse about Jane was cold-blooded. Aaron Paul played everything excellently despite very little to do (no non-begging dialogue for him this week if I recall correctly). Walt has to know they'd keep him around for the cooking. Although, I do think at the time that he is so overtaken with emotion and blames Jesse so entirely for this that it's hard to care.
RJ Mitte played Walt Jr. (I'm guessing he'll be going by Flynn permanently now) learning the truth as well as I could've expected. That scene and of course, back at the house, are devastating. Heisenberg could've handled all this, but this episode continually reminds us that Walter White is just a man. He has done and continues to do horrible things but he is not completely a monster. As hard as it is to watch, you can even understand why he steals baby Holly. He is so desperate to keep his family, it is the only thing he can think to do. Maybe she won't hate him. He quickly realizes what he has to do and watching him as he makes that phone call to Skylar is heartbreaking. Sure, he got himself into all this. The opening this weeks reminds us that it began with humble origins. He did do this for his family at first, in at least equal proportion to doing it for himself. Now, he has no family and $11 million to try to rewrite the end of his story. Is there really only two episodes left? That's downright unfair.

Dads "Pilot"
I think I'll give this one more week because I like Seth Green, Martin Mull, and Brenda Song. I can see why virtually every critic hates this show. The comedy is as broad as possible (see: The dads not paying the check) and I think the live studio audience decision is a major distraction. The kind of inappropriate comedy they are going for is probably best used as throwaway lines, not mugged at the camera moments. Maybe that's just me. So much of this felt forced and I have too many other things to watch to follow this on the off chance that it improves.

Brooklyn Nine Nine "Pilot"
I see a ton of potential in this show. The number of actors in this that I've seen before but never enough of (Terry Crews, Stephanie Peretti, Joe Lo Truglio) is enough to make me pull for it. Andy Samberg will need some Leslie Knope fine-tuning but he's not a lost cause. Andre Braugher is going to be the biggest risk/reward character. If they fumble him up, this could be rough, but if they figure out how to maximize his effectiveness, that could really elevate the show. This episode had perhaps the most blatant exposition scene of any pilot I've ever seen and that's not a knock. I rather enjoyed that. I want to see what this will be like from week to week. As is, I'll label this as my first "giving it a full season, regardless" new show of the season.

New Girl "All In"
Well, that wasn't the best way to start the season. It could be much worse, but New Girl is not a show that I'm used to talking about in those terms. It seems like the writers aren't sure what Jess and Nick dating is going to look like so they are stalling for time. That's understandable. A little annoying though on the same week that Schmidt starts the oldest farce in the book (trying to date two women). Winston working on a puzzle is a weird meta-commentary on the fact that the writers still have no idea what to do with him. Lamorne Morrie still plays it like a champ though. Thankfully, this show always has enough jokes in it to let me enjoy it despite even the worst of miscalculations, so I'm just happy to have it back.

Mindy Project "All My Problems Solved Forever..."
I like how the opening basically says "New viewers, don't be scared. We can catch you up." Part of me would like to see this show continue being an amorphous blob with a constant rotation of guest stars, character arcs, and settings since I honestly don't know what to expect each week. A little consistency would be nice though to even things out and allow some casual viewers to keep up. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I love Mindy Kaling's comedic voice and she can certainly write for herself very well, so the more one-liners she gives herself (My favorite this week has to be her response to being Tom Hardy's sex slave) the better as far as I'm concerned.

2013 Emmy Preview: Mini-Series/TV Movie

I want to make it clear that I have seen none of these. I didn't even catch one in passing. Even the ones that I was like "I'm totally going to find a way to watch that" I haven't even come close to watching. In short, all my selections here are based off secondhand accounts, speculation, and best of all "I like that title/actor/channel". I hate skipping by this, so I will still cover it, but really, MY guesses won't be all that good.

Creative Arts Emmys

A quick run down of how this works: I've ordered each category from most to least likely to win, in my eyes. I've also noted my personal favorite to win and who I think was the most worthy overlooked potential nominee for most categories.

Mini-Series/TV Movie
[My Favorite] Behind the Candelabra - If you are a TV movie that plays at Cannes, I think you've reached lock status.
Top of the Lake - I hear great things about this. It's had a lot of buzz despite being on Sundance Channel.
Phil Spector - I don't bet against HBO in this category unless it's another HBO nominee or Downton Abbey.
American Horror Story: Asylum - I think it was seen as clever and fresh the first year. Season 2 I expect to lose some support.
Political Animals - It was a noble effort but USA had to cancel this "mini-series" which hurts its overall chances.
The Bible - I really doubt it. Nice to see History Channel staying in the category though.
Biggest Oversight: The Girl - I heard this was very comparable to the Hitchcock movie that did go to theaters so I assume that it has the caliber to belong here.

Lead Actor - Mini-Series/TV Movie
[My Favorite] Michael Douglas (Behind the Candelabra) - Someone from this is going to win and when in doubt, pick Liberace.
Matt Damon (Behind the Candelabra) - But if Douglas doesn't get the win, its Damon's to lose.
Al Pacino (Phil Spector) - He won for You Don't Know Jack.
Benedict Cumberbatch (Parade's End) -British and doesn't feature films. He could win for that.
Toby Jones (The Girl) -Any time that your point of comparison is Anthony Hopkins, your odds are diminished.
Biggest Oversight: Dominic West (The Hour) - My reason? McNulty.

Lead Actress - Mini-Series/TV Movie
Jessica Lange (American Horror Story: Asylum) - She won supporting actress last year and continues to be the stand out on the show. No reason to assume she can't pull a Jon Cryer and come away with gold.
[My Favorite] Elisabeth Moss (Top of the Lake) - Maybe they give her a win here as a makeup call for all the missed opportunities on Mad Men. Hey, maybe that would mean Jon Hamm will get a win for Clear History next year.
Helen Mirren (Phil Spector) - The Queen does not go down without a fight. Just watch Red.
Sigourney Weaver (Political Animals) - Again, solid effort by USA, but doesn't have a fighter's chance.
Laura Linney (The Big C: Hereafter) - As I see it, if she couldn't win for the much meatier work in the series form of the show, I don't see it happening here either.
Biggest Oversight: Rebecca Hall (Parade's End) - I like Rebecca Hall and she was the only potential nominee I recognized who does good work.

Supporting Actor - Mini-Series/TV Movie
[My Favorite] Scott Bakula (Behind the Candelanbra) - I assume this movie is sweeping the night.
James Cromwell (American Horror Story: Asylum) - That's a big name, which immediately puts him in play.
John Benjamin Hickey (The Big C: Hereafter) - At this point, I'm blindly guessing.
Peter Mullan (Top of the Lake) - I have no idea who this is.
Zachary Quinto (American Horror Story: Asylum) - I figure that if someone is winning from this show, it's Cromwell, not Spock.
Biggest Oversight: Rob Lowe (Behind the Candelabra)- I saw one picture of him from this and determined that he should win.

Supporting Actress - Mini-Series/TV Movie
[My Favorite] Ellen Burstyn (Political Animals) - When in doubt, choose the Oscar winner.
Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story: Asylum) - People may forget that Lange moved to lead, see AHS and vote blindly.
Imelda Staunton (The Girl) - Again, I'm totally guessing here.
Alfre Woodard (Steel Magnolias) - They remade this?
Charlotte Rampling (Restless) - Absolutely no idea what this is.
Biggest Oversight: Adelaide Clemens (Parade's End) - I want to use this space to say, see Rectify. She is fantastic in it. I'm sure she's good here too.

Directing - Mini-Series/TV Movie
[My Favorite] Behind the Candelabra - As I said. This played at Cannes!
Top of The Lake - Notice some similarities to writing and the overall Mini-Series/Movie award?
Phil Spector - HBO movie. It always stands a chance.
The Girl - See Spector, Phil. For god's sake, this one is about a director.
Ring of Fire - Is this a Johnny Cash thing?
Biggest Oversight: uhhhhh. I can't even make up a guess.

Writing - Mini-Series/TV Movie
[My Favorite] Behind the Candelabra - Cannes, dammit!
Top of the Lake - Maybe, if there wasn't Candelabra.
Phil Spector - HBO, dammit.
The Hour - Uh, this is an outright series. Just because it's British doesn't mean it's not.
Parade's End - Well, it has Benedict Cumberbatch and Rebecca Hall in it, so it can't be all bad.
Biggest Oversight: The Girl - Because I feel like it.