I don't think I can stress enough the amount of
time I put in tracking college basketball rosters. I follow recruits,
transfers, minutes played, positions, All-Conference teams, etc. If I'm crazy
enough to make picks for every conference, I'm sure as hell going to make a
post about it. So, here you go.
By the way, any time I mention Conference
rankings, I'm basing it off Kenpom, not final Conference W-L record. Whenever I
mention recruiting rankings, I'm referring to Rivals.
This Year:
Last Year:
2017-2018
2016-2017
2015-16:
2014-15:
The Power Five
ACC
1. Duke - PG Tre Jones + elite recruits (including three 5-star players) +
returning secondary talent = another strong Duke team. The top of the ACC has a
lot more parity this year, so this is hardly a lock. Jones set them over the
edge though.
2. Louisville - They have a star player in Jordan Nwora, a lot
of returning depth, and a big recruiting class. They are more of a high floor
team than a high ceiling one though.
3. North Carolina - Four starters are gone. They'll be relying a
lot on Freshmen and grad transfers. Freshman PG Cole Anthony is supposed to be
a beast though. I figure Roy Williams will figure out a way to make it all
work.
Sleeper:
Virginia - They've been a top 12 team for each of the last 6 years, so, even though
the roster looks questionable, Tony Bennett teams always seem to over perform.
The Mamide Diakite/Jay Huff frontcourt is a great start. It wouldn't be at all
surprising to see the Cavaliers win the ACC yet again.
Also Worth Mentioning: Notre Dame has another experienced
team. I don't even think they have any Freshmen on the roster. Expect a
bounceback season from the Fighting Irish. I'm kind of curious to see if
Derryck Thornton finally puts it all together on Boston College, his
third school.
Bottom of the Barrel: Virginia Tech - Buzz Williams left, as
did nearly every player of note. Things have to get worse before they start
getting better.
Big 12
1. Kansas - Sophomores Devon Dotson (PG) and Ochai Agbajii
(G/F) could run the league. Supposing Senior Udoka Azubuike can finally stay
healthy, there won't be much stopping him. Big man Silvio De Sousa got his
eligibility back too. They're just a really good team.
2. Baylor - Unremarkable roster, but reliable. That's the
Baylor sweet spot. Tristan Clark (F) can make a run at Conference Player of the
Year if nothing else.
3. Texas Tech - The core of the team that made it to the
National Championship game is mostly gone. In fact, only 3 players from last
year's team return. Chris Beard has proven that he can rebuild quickly though.
Grad transfers Chris Clarke (from Virginia Tech) and TJ Holyfield (SF Austin)
and a strong Freshmen class will be expected to contribute right away. There's
a high amount of variability on this roster.
Sleeper: Texas - The Longhorns have an overwhelming number of
highly rated recruits on the roster including Matt Coleman (G) and Will Baker
(C). Shaka Smart hasn't had much success maximizing the talent the last few
years, but if he ever can, the Longhorns could very well win the Big 12.
Also Worth Mentioning: West Virginia had an awful season last
year. While the roster doesn't suggest that a bounce-back is likely this year,
it's hard to see a Bobby Huggins team remaining uncompetitive. Iowa State's
roster was decimated by graduations and guys going pro. Tyrese Haliburton (G)
remains though, and he can take them far.
Bottom of the Barrel: Oklahoma State - The league is deep, yet
again, so don't be surprised if the worst team is still in the top 100. Thomas
Dziagwa (G), Lindy Waters (G), and Cameron McGriff (F) are all 30 mpg players,
although I'm not sure there's an All-Conference player on the roster.
Big 10
1. Michigan State - The Spartans were the preseason top team in
the country, so naturally, they are the favorite to win their conference.
Cassius Winston (PG) and a lot of good, experienced players can easily win a
national championship.
2. Maryland - Most of the players from last year's top 25
squad are back. Anthony Cowan (PG) and Jalen Smith (C) are an excellent
inside-out combo. They have the talent to give Michigan State a run but not the
coaching prowess.
3. Ohio State - Chris Holtman is great at maximizing talent.
The Wesson brothers are All-Conference talents.
Sleeper:
Indiana - I overestimate the Hoosiers every year, and, on queue, I've really
convinced myself that this year will be better for them. Last year, Romeo
Langford was stuck playing out of position as the lead guard. Despite his talent,
he wasn't being used right. It was the same for Juwan Morgan who had to play
Center more than he should've. This year's roster looks more balanced. Robert
Phinisee in his Sophomore season could be the PG Indiana has been lacking for
several seasons. Archie Miller brings in a strong recruiting class. And there's
Butler transfer Joey Bunk (C). The Hoosier will likely max out as a solid
roster in need of a star, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them as one of
those unremarkable top 25 Big 10 teams that keep winning all the games they
should and even a few they shouldn't.
Also Worth Mentioning: I'm probably selling short on Purdue who
are virtually graduation or draft-proof most years. Nojel Eastern (G) could be
a star, Matt Haarms (C) is a tower, and they have tremendous depth. But I just
think the loss of Carsen Edwards will be even more significant than expected. Michigan
has solid pieces in place (Zavier Simpson, Isaiah Livers, Jon Teske) who could
sleepwalk them to a lot of wins. I don't trust new coach Juwan Howard enough
yet though. Illinois has a lot more talent on the roster than people
realize (Ayo Dosunmum Kofi Cockburn) and a coach (Brad Underwood) who has
quickly turned teams around before. Minnesota may just be cursed.
Richard Pitino can never keep a roster together long enough to get serious
momentum.
Bottom of the Barrel: Nebraska - The Fred Hoiberg hire is
huge. There was a max exodus after former coach Ted Miles was fired. It'll take
a while for Hoiberg to restock the shelves, although he does bring in a couple
interesting Juco transfers this year
(Cam Mack, Jervay Green) who should keep them from being completely
embarrassing.
PAC 12
1. Oregon - Payton Pritchard (G) is a four year starter.
Christopher Duarte is the top Junior College transfer. Shakur Juiston and
Anthony Mathis are strong grad transfers. The Freshman class is as strong as
always. The Ducks lost a lot last season. Luckily, 1) they rebuild fast and 2)
that Pac 12 can't get its act together.
2. Colorado - McKinley Wright is probably the best probably
the best PG in the conference. He and Tyler Bey (G/F) are both Juniors who made
All-Conference 1st Team last year. Given that nearly every player is back from
last year's squad, the Buffalo have a lot of momentum going into this season.
3. Arizona - The Wildcats barely finished within the top
100 last year, so they are hoping the collection of new players will bring
immediate and dramatic improvement. Top 15 Freshmen guards Nico Mannion and
Josh Green are a big plus. UC Irvine transfer Max Hazzard brings sharpshooting
to the backcourt. Returning big men Ira Lee and Chase Jeter will need to be
more reliable this year.
Sleeper:
UCLA - Former coach Steve Alford completely lost control of the team last year,
so it's easy to forget that there are a lot of talented players on the roster.
If new coach Mick Cronnin can get his players to buy into his physical,
defensive system, the Bruins could be surprisingly strong.
Also Worth Mentioning: A lot of people are very excited about Washington,
who adds two top 10 Freshmen to the roster - Jaden McDaniels (F) and Isaiah
Stewart (F). I don't like this team though. They lost four starters from last
year, including both the Pac 12 Player of the Year and the Defensive Player of
the year. As great as McDaniels and Stewart may be, in college, great big men
don't mean much without a backcourt capable of getting them the ball. The
Huskies will be relying on players like top 70 Freshman Requan Battle and
transfer Quade Green from Kentucky for that. And remember, Kentucky got better
last year after Green left the team. USC is always loaded with
talent and brings back several high usage players from last year. While Andy
Enfield routinely underachieves with loaded rosters, sometimes enough talent
can overcome even the worst coaching.
Bottom of the Barrel: Washiongton State - There are a lot of
choices for worst team in the Pac 12. The Cougars have the right mix of
graduations, transfers, and poor recruiting class to secure last.
SEC
1. Kentucky - The Wildcats bring back two great Sophomore
Point Guards (Ashton Hagans, Immanuel Quickley). EJ Montgomery and Nick
Richards are big men with a lot of unrealized potential. Nate Sestina is a
stretch big grad-transfer from Bucknell who gives them an added dimension that
past years have lacked. Oh, and there's the second rated recruiting class
that's loaded with wings and Tyrese Maxey, who just erupted in the Champions Classic.
I really like this team, even though the frontcourt is a little unproven.
2. Florida - Sophomore PG Andrew Nembhard has star
potential. Scottie Lewis (G/F) is a top 10 Freshman. Kerry Blackshear (F/C) was
the most coveted transfer this summer. My one concern about the Gators is that
I worry that people have overrated how good Blackshear is. He's good, but
Florida's thin frontcourt maybe needs him to be All-American-good in order to
win the conference or even make it to the Final Four.
3. LSU - Losing two players to the pros doesn't help, but there's a lot left over
on the team that I like. Skylar Mays (G) made All-Conference 2nd team last
year. Trendon Watford (F) is a top 20 Freshman recruit. And, they have a
quartet of Sophomores all set to make a leap. Don't sleep on them.
Sleeper: Alabama - I just love the backcourt. Kira Lewis had a
strong Freshman season, despite being only 17. John Petty and Herb Jones have
the ability to explode on any given night. West Virginia transfer James Bolden
gives them depth. I don't really know who is in their frontcourt, but new coach
Nate Oates could make a great small-ball lineup.
Also Worth Mentioning: Tennessee lost three incredibly key
players but might still have enough talent to be competitive in the conference,
especially if top 20 Freshman Josiah James can contribute right away. I'm a bit
lower on Auburn than a lot of people. The incoming Freshman class isn't
that strong and the backcourt that got them to the Final Four is gone. Georgia
brings in the third rated Freshman in the country (Anthony Edwards - G), yet I
doubt that will be enough to even put them in the top half of the conference.
Bottom of the Barrel: Vanderbilt - The Commodores didn't win
a single SEC game last year despite having two top 20 recruits (now playing
professionally) on the roster. It's hard to see them improving much this year
with an inferior recruiting class.
The "If It Wasn't for Football" Majors
American Athletic Conference
1. Memphis - I don't believe in the Tigers on a nationwide
level, but the giant #1 rated recruiting class should be more than enough to
win an AAC with a lot of programs in flux. If #1 rated Freshman James Wiseman
(C) is the real real, they could be a lot of fun to watch. He wouldn't be the
first big man recruit who couldn't put it together until he got to the NBA
though. I wonder how much microwave scorer, undersized Sophomore PG Tyler
Harris' role will be diminished to find time for all the Freshmen. Coach Penny
Hardaway has his work cut out for him. He also has the kind of talented players
who can make his job look easy if he knows how to motivate them.
2. Connecticut - I may be a year early on the Huskies, but why
not now? They have a year under Dan Hurley now, so the post-Kevin Ollie
hangover is over. They still have a lot of talented recruits on the roster,
including AAC Most Improved Player Josh Carlton (F/C).
3. Cincinnati - AAC Player of the Year Jarron Cumberland is back,
and even though former coach Mick Cronnin is gone, enough players remember his
fundamentals to expect another physical defensive team.
Sleeper:
Wichita State - I just don't feel comfortable expecting two down years in a row for the
Shockers. It's not clear who the leader of this team is - maybe Dexter Dennis
(G) or Jamie Echinique (C) - but few coaches are as good at turning 3-star
recruits into major conference talents as Greg Marshall.
Also Worth Mentioning: Houston* was a top 15 team last
year. While they lost a lot of key players, guys like DeJon Jarreau (G), Nate
Hinton (G), and Fabian White (F) should shorten their fall. South Florida
bring back two All-Conference guards, including the AAC Defensive Player of the
Year (Laquincy Rideau) and Freshman of the Year Alexis Yetna (F). I do struggle
to see how the same core that finished 99th last year is going to improve all
that much.
Bottom of the Barrel: Eastern Carolina - The Pirates will rely on
a lot of incoming Junior College transfers, which could make them a wildcard.
They finished 264th in the country though last year and only return two
rotation players. I'm comfortable with this prediction.
*I found out that Kansas transfer Quentin Grimes
got his waiver to play this season after I already made my picks. I'm
stubbornly sticking by my prediction that Houston won't be that good though.
Atlantic 10
1. Davidson - The Wildcats have probably the best player in
the conference (Kellan Grady - G) and the reigning A10 Player of the Year (Jon
Axel Gudmundson). I know they only finished 85th last year with almost exactly
the same roster, but they have a great coach and arguably two players better
than anyone else in the conference. That has to count for something.
2. VCU - I get why the Rams are the trendy pick to win the A10. Most of the team,
including the All-Conference backcourt of Marcus Evans and De'Riante Jenkins
are back. That team finished 42nd last year. I just don't see the upside talent
to get behind on this Senior-heavy roster. 42nd feels close to their peak.
3. Dayton - You have to watch out for any team with an
inside-out combo like Jalen Crutcher and Obi Toppin. Toppin in particular could
tear through a conference not known for its frontcourt talent.
Sleeper:
St. Louis - Perhaps the definitive "sleeper" roster includes one returning
star player, a large Freshmen class of moderate esteem, and several transfers.
The Billikens have all of that with Hasahn French (F) returning to an almost
completely rebuilt roster.
Also Worth Mentioning: Massachusetts has had some sneaky good
recruiting classes the last couple years. If not for the 8 players who
transferred out, I'd say they had wildcard potential.
Bottom of the Barrel: St. Joseph's - The Hawks were bad last
year and lost most of their players. That's a bad brew.
Big East
1. Xavier - The Big East is exciting this year, because it
really feels like half the league could win it. I like the Musketeers' mix of
depth, talent, and experience though. Naji Marshall will need to be a star, and
Quentin Goodin needs to be more consistent in his Senior year.
2. Seton Hall - Myles Powell (G). Myles Powell. Myles Powell.
They go as far as he takes them. And he can take them far. It would be nice if
he could get a little help though.
3. Villanova - I'm probably foolish for picking them this
low, but I don't like their roster. They have a lot of talent, but the only
guys who got them buckets last year graduated. I'm not convinced that Collin
Gillespie is the answer at Point Guard. I also don't know who is supposed to
take the last shot on this team.
Sleeper:
Georgetown - The Hoyas finished respectably last year, given how young they were. Now,
they have a bunch of Sophomores looking to take a leap, and former ACC
All-Conference Center Omer Yurtseven is finally eligible.
Also Worth Mentioning: Marquette has Markus Howard, so
anything is possible. The Hauser brothers transferring will hurt that offense
though, and I don't know how effective Howard will be without them stretching
the floor and giving him open shots. Providence has one of those quiet
rosters that starts making a lot of noise by March. Alpha Diallo will be a
pest.
Bottom of the Barrel: St. John's - The Red Storm squandered
a loaded roster last year. Most of those guys are gone now, and a proper
rebuild has begun.
Mountain West
1. Utah State - They have the best inside-out duo in the
conference - Sam Merrill (G, MW Player of the Year), Neemias Queta (C, MW
Defensive Player of the Year, Freshman of the Year). They return enough
complimentary players for the remaining roster spots that they should win the
conference pretty easily.
2. Colorado State - I'm going out on a limb picking them this
high. They finished 180th last year. I like that they bring back 1st Team
All-Conference Center Nico Carvacho, bring back 4 other 20 mpg players, and add
a trio of 3 star Freshman with some potential. Given that the league doesn't
look all that strong after Utah State, why not the Rams for 2nd place?
3. UNLV - The Running Rebels had a lot of roster turnover
this offseason with several players transferring out and in. I tend to think of
transfers as a wildcard chance for immediate improvement.
Sleeper:
New Mexico - Somehow, former 5-star big man Carlton Bragg still has some eligibility
left and he's on New Mexico this year. He and former UConn player Vance Jackson
have enough unrealized potential to think that New Mexico could sneak up on the
league.
Also Worth Mentioning: Nevada lost pretty much everyone
from that ridiculously deep roster last year. This year, I wonder if the Senior
backcourt of Jazz Johnson and Lindsey Drew have enough savvy to drag a lot of
new guys into the top half of the standings.
Bottom of the Barrel: San Jose State - The Spartans were the
11th worst team in the country last year. Expect more of the same this year.
Missouri Valley Conference
1. Missouri State - All-Conference guard Keandre Cook is back. 1st
Team All-Conference Newcomer of the Year Tulio Da Silva (F) is too. And they
add West Virginia transfer Lamont West (F) and highly rated Juco forward Gaige
Prim. The Bears just have to overcome the thin backcourt rotation.
2. Loyola-Chicago - The Ramblers had a comedown season last year after
the Final Four run. Expectations are more in check now. Cameron Krutwig is the
premiere Center in the conference. He'll have a decent recruiting class and
some OK returning players to help him out.
3. Northern Iowa - They bring back 5 guards who averages over
20mpg last year, including Freshman of the Year AJ Green. The front court is a
little thinner, but that's OK for an MVC team to get by with.
Sleeper:
Bradley - The Braves lost a bunch of players, but they do manage to bring back two
All-Conference upperclassmen (Darrell Brown - G, Elijah Childs - F).
Also Worth Mentioning: Indiana State returns the MVC Most
Improved Player (Tyreke Key - G) and an All-Freshman guard (Cooper Neese). That
at least makes them interesting.
Bottom of the Barrel: Illinois State - They finished outside the
top 200 last year and lost both of their All-Conference players.
The True Mid-Majors
Colonial Athletic Association
Favorite: Hofstra - Despite losing CAA Player of the Year Justin
Wright-Foreman, the Pride are pretty loaded with talent. CAA Defensive Player
of the Year Desure Buie (PG) is back. So is All-Conference wing Eli Pemberton.
They'll have to find a new frontcourt option, but otherwise, they look pretty
good.
Runner-Up:
Charleston - Guard Grant Riller is one of the best players in the conference, and the
team brings back a lot of rotation players.
Sleeper: William & Mary - The Tribe have 1st Team
All-Conference Center Natan Knight back. He'll be joined by some grad transfers
from Milwaukee (Bryce Barnes) and Tylrer Hamilton (Penn). It's dangerous to
sleep on teams with returning talent and transfers.
Bottom of the Barrel: Delaware - They lost an
All-Conference forward and an All-Freshman guard. It's hard to improve if their
good players keep graduating and transferring.
Conference USA
Favorite: Western Kentucky - The Hilltoppers have the
kind of lineup that should succeed even with a bad coach. Charles Bassey (C) is
a future NBA draft pick and will absolutely dominate Conference USA. If he's
anything less than the Conference Player of the Year, it will be a
disappointment. The backcourt is loaded too. Taveion Hollingsworth, Camron
Justice, and Josh Anderson will all be fighting for All-Conference honors. I'm
not sure if any of them work as a Point Guard though. Maybe 4-star Freshman
Jordan Rawls can fill that role.
Runner-Up: UTSA - The Roadrunners are headlined by the
All-Conference backcourt of Jhiwan Jackson and Keaton Wallace. Supposing one or
two of their bigs step up, they could give WKU a run.
Sleeper: Florida International - I'm kind of curious to see
what they do with St. John's transfer Sedee Keita (F), 4-star Juco transfer
Dimon Carrigan (F), and a bunch of returning players. However, they were a
sub-200 team least year.
Bottom of the Barrel: Charlotte - They finished 297th last
year and lost their only All-Conference player. You do the math.
Mid-American Conference
Favorite: Buffalo - Despite losing their coach, 3 All-Conference
players (including the Player of the Year, and the Defensive Player of the
Year), I still like the Bulls a lot. The focus will shift to the backcourt pair
of Davonta Jordan and Jayvon Graves. Jeenathan Williams will get a chance to
crack the rotation after coming in as their highest rated Freshman in years
last season. They also have some Juco transfers on the way.
Runner-Up: Bowling Green - I've always had a soft spot for the BGSU. 1st
Team All-Conference guard Justin Turner will have to carry them. That should be
enough though.
Sleeper: Ohio - They've got two All-Freshmen returning players,
including Freshman of the Year Ben Vander Plas (F), and a strong recruiting
class for the MAC. Georgia Tech transfer Sylvester Ogbonda (F/C) is a nice add.
Bottom of the Barrel: Western Michigan - They actually bring back a
lot of players. Just not any of their really good ones.
Summit League
Favorite: South Dakota - Three All-Conference players are back,
including forward Tyler Hagedorn after a redshirt season. With Mike Daum
finally graduated, the conference is wide open.
Runner-Up: North Dakota State - Summit Newcomer of the
Year Vinnie Shahid (PG) and the vast majority of the roster returning is a good
start.
Sleeper: Soth Dakota State - Four 30 mpg players are
gone, including the legendary Mike Daum. The coach left too. There's actually
no reason to pick them here...unless Mike Daum had an understudy we don't know
about.
Bottom of the Barrel: Denver - They were a sub-300 teams
that lost several players and didn't even have an All-Conference player to
begin with.
Sunbelt Conference
Favorite: South Alabama - The Sunbelt Conference normally has at least
one team with a lot of interesting transfers or fringe NBA talent. Not this
year though, from what I can tell. The Jaguars bring back three 30 mpg players,
including two All-Conference forwards (Trhae Mitchell, Josh Ajayi). They have a
bunch of transfers set for next year. Only Howard transfer Chad Lott is
eligible this year. He is expected to be a big help.
Runner-Up: Texas State - 1st Team All-Conference guard Nijal Pearson is
back, and that's a good thing.
Sleeper: Georgia State - Former coach Ron Hunter is long gone, but I
still have a soft spot for the Panthers'
ability to reinvent themselves year-to-year. Like South Alabama though, it
looks like all of Georgia State's transfers aren't set to be eligible until
next season.
Bottom of the Barrel: Troy - At least the team's
consistent. They finished 277th last year overall - 280th on offense, 276th on
defense. The fact that these Trojans aren't known for their defense is
literately indefensible.
West Coast Conference
Favorite: Gonzaga - I really worry about how much they'll have to
rely on transfers - Ryan Woolridge from Noth Texas, Admon Gilder from Texas
A&M - in the back court. The Bulldogs have perhaps the most impressive
frontcourt in the country though. Supposing he's healthy, Killian Tillie (C) is
the most dangerous stretch big in the country. Corey Kispert (F) and Filip
Petrusev (F) are expected to continue their improvement. Oh, and the Freshman
class has five 4 star (or better) big men who are all 6'6 or taller (most
taller than 6'9). If any of the bigs are
mobile enough to guard on the perimeter, then Gonzaga's size is frightening.
Runner-Up: St. Mary's - The Gaels should give Gonzaga a good run for
the first time in a few years. Almost every player is back from last year's top
35 squad. Jordan Ford (G), Tanner Krebs (G), and Malik Fitts (F) can shoot any
team out of the gym on a given night. Grad transfer Aaron Menzies (C) from
Seattle is expected to fill the one key roster hole. Watch out, the Gaels are
motivated this year.
Sleeper: BYU - It feels like this team should have a lot more
buzz. A team that already brings back TJ Haws (G) and Yoeli Childs (F) just
added former WAC Player of the Year Jake Toolson and several returnees from
Mormon missions. This team is old and unexpectedly talented.
Bottom of the Barrel: Portland - One of the worst teams in
the country added no one of significance.
They Have Some Good Teams
Big Sky Conference
Favorite: Montana - I'm betting more on the stability of the
program than on the makeup of this year's roster. It doesn't hurt bringing back
1st team All-Conference guard Sayeed Pridgett though.
Runner-Up: Northern Colorado - Both Defensive Player of
the Year (Jonah Radebaugh - G) and Freshman of the Year (Bodie Hume - G) are
back.
Sleeper: Southern Utah - Last year's Newcomer of the Year (Cameron
Oluyitan - G) returns. This roster also has three players who began college as
top 150 recruits: the only three players in the conference who were top 150
recruits as Freshmen.
Bottom of the Barrel: Idaho State - Nothing remarkable about
this team. They're just bad.
Big West Conference
Favorite: UC Santa Barbara - The Gauchos can throw out a lineup of three
30 mpg guards, an All-Conference forward (Amadou Sow), and a high level
transfer from Oklahoma (Matt Freeman).
Runner-Up: Cal State Northridge - Lamine Diane (F) was the
Big West Player of the Year last year as a Freshman. He also has Terrell Gomez,
also a 1st Team All-Conference player, in the backcourt.
Sleeper: Long Beach State University - Dan Monson always
schedules hard in the non-conference. Sometimes, that hardens his players and
prepares them to dominate the Big West. Most times, it shakes their confidence
and they never recover. He's got a couple top 150 Freshmen this year, so maybe
this year will be in the former category.
Bottom of the Barrel: Cal Poly - A couple grad transfers
won't be enough to save one of the worst teams in the country last year.
Ivy League
Favorite: Harvard - Good god, the Crimson have one hell of a
roster. Forward Seth Towns (former Ivy POY) is back after a reshirt season.
He'll be joining 1st Team All-Conference guard Bryce Aiken and Ivy Freshman of
the Year Noah Kirkwood (G). Every significant piece of last year's team is back
and top 80 Freshman Chis Ledlum (F) joins the team.
Runner-Up: Penn - They bring back the All-Conference inside-out
tandem of Devon Goodman (G) and AJ Broudeur (F) and not much else. But that's a
strong start.
Sleeper: Yale - The Bulldogs are always lurking. They lost
their best backcourt players from last year (including Miye Oni to the NBA),
but the front court is still mostly there and coach James Jones has a history
of developing guys.
Bottom of the Barrel: Cornell - The one All-Conference
player is gone.
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Favorite: Iona - The Gaels have consistently overachieved, so a
year when they start with two All-Conference players (EJ Crawford - G, Tajuan
Agee - F) and a lot of experienced Seniors is a good sign.
Runner-Up: Rider - They've got a full lineup of 20 mpg returning
players, including two All-Conference guys (Stevie Jordan - G, Frederick Scott
- F), and FIU transfer Willy Nunez Jr. for some depth.
Sleeper: Siena - Jalen Pickett (G) was 1st Team All-Conference
in his Freshman year (Freshman of the Year, in fact), so he could put this team
on his back and carry them even higher. He did lose a lot of help though.
Bottom of the Barrel: Niagara - The real problem with the
worst teams is that they tend to be the boringest teams too. Niagara, for
example, only brings back one player who averaged over 20 mpg.
Southern Conference
Favorite: ETSU - Don't expect the SoCo to be anywhere near as
dominant as they were last year with a top 25 team and three others finishing
inside the top 100. The Buccaneers are by far the best positioned team. Three
All-Conference players return. All-Freshman team guard Daivien Williamson
returns. They bring in a pair of 20+ mpg transfers from Central Conn. and SE
Missiouri State. They'll have a little less size in the middle this year, but
that's about the only thing working against them.
Runner-Up: UNC-Greensboro - Defensive Player of the
Year and 1st Team All-Conference guard Isaiah Miller is the centerpiece of the
team. They also have some returning size and several 3-star Freshmen with
potential coming in.
Sleeper: Chattanooga - There isn't much about this team that interests
me other than Vanderbilt transfer Matt Ryan (G/F) coming in. He's the kind of
guy I could see making an immediate splash in this conference.
Bottom of the Barrel: The Citadel - Cool name, bad team.
Western Athletic Conference
Favorite: New Mexico State - New coaches. Players
leaving for the NBA. It doesn't seem to matter what happens to the Aggies. They
just keep coming back even stronger. They won't rely as much as usual on
transfers this year (they have some good ones next year), but that's because a
large amount of the team that nearly beat Auburn last year in the NCAA
Tournament is back. Backcourt mates AJ Harris and Terrell Brown will be
fighting for Player of the Year honors. This team has 6 rotation Seniors back.
They are very deep.
Runner-Up: California Baptist - In only their second
season as a D-1 program, the Lancers could fight for the conference crown.
Guard Milan Acquaah was the conference Newcomer of the Year. Transfers from
Idaho State (Brandon Boyd, G) and Incarnate Word (G) bolster their back court
depth.
Sleeper: Grand Canyon - Something is going on in Phoenix. The
Antelopes have a fanbase that has been rapidly growning in infamy. They have a
healthy pipeline of talented transfers. It feels like we are only a couple
years away at most from a breakout season. This year's team doesn't look like
that year, but maybe Carlos Johnson (G) and some transfers is enough.
Bottom of the Barrel: Chicago State - Only two 10+ mpg players
are back. This has to be among the worst jobs in Division 1.
Basketball's Not Their Thing
American East Conference
Favorite: Vermont - The AEC is quietly one of the more interesting
conferences every year. Vermont always has 2 or 3 teams competing with them at
the top. The Catamounts never seem to have a turnover problem. Two of the three
Duncan brothers remain in the backcourt. AEC Player of the Year Anthony Lamb is
a do-everything forward looking to make his case for the NBA. Incoming transfer
Daniel Giddens (C) disappointed in Alabama but looks to rebuild his reputation
in a league where talented bigs have more room to thrive.
Runner-Up: Stony Brook - The Seawolves retrurn four players who won
postseason honors last year. Chief among them is Defensive Player of the Year
Jeff Otchere (C).
Sleeper: UMBC - As the only school to ever beat a 1 seed as a
16 seed, I think I'm legally required to pick the Retrievers here.They aren't
completely depleted either. KJ Jackson and RJ Eytle-Rock are a couple of good
guards.
Bottom of the Barrel: New Hampshire - It's not even that they
lost a lot of players. A lot of last year's team remains in tact. The problem
is that the team was bottom 10 in the country.
Big South Conference
Favorite: Radford - Losing Defensive Player of the Year Edward
Polite hurts, but the All-Conference backcourt (Travis Fields, Carlik Jones)
remains in tact.
Runner-Up: Hampton - Jermaine Marrow will rely on several transfers
(most Juco).
Sleeper: Campbell - First of all, I did not realize their mascot
is the Fighting Camels. That's awesome! Secondly, they finished as a middling
team last year despite have prolific scoring PG Chris Clemons, who has
graduated now. Given how much the team depended on him last year, I'm not sure
what kind of talent the rest of the roster has.
Bottom of the Barrel: USC Upstate - By my count, this team is
7 Sophomores, 7 Freshmen, and one Junior who played sparingly. Experience
doesn't matter when you are recruiting 5-star talents. It does in the Big
South. This team is crazy young.
Horizon League
Favorite: Wright State - They have a 1st Team All-Conference Center
(Loudon Love), a 2nd Team All-Conference wing (Billy Wampler), and a Senior PG
who averaged 30+ mpg last year (Cole Gentry). The rest of the lineup and
rotation will figure itself out.
Runner-Up: Northern Kentucky - The Norse lost their
coach and the Horizon Player of the Year (Drew McDonald). The roster still has
some talent though. Tyler Sharpe (G) averaged 30+ mpg last year. Jalen Tate
(wing) made the All-Defensive team. The dropoff in the conference after Wright
and NKU last year was pretty severe. I'm betting on the other teams not
improving enough to bridge the gap amd catch NKU.
Sleeper: Detroit Mercy - The Titans are the rare Horizon team who has a
coach who made a Final Four (Mike Davis) running the team. His son, Antoine
Davis (G) returns after averaging an insane 26ppg last season as a Freshman.
The lineup is almost entirely constructed out of underclassmen and transfers.
There's a lot of room for improvement on this roster.
Bottom of the Barrel: Cleveland State - They got a new coach and
8 players transferred. This is a pretty new lineup for a team that wasn't that
good in the first place.
Ohio Valley Conference
Favorite: Belmont - Legendary coach Rick Byrd has retired, but even
if the new coach can't measure up, this team still has the goods for at least
one more year. 1st Team All-Conference Freshman of the Year Nick Muszynski (C)
is back. Tyler Scanlon (F) transfers in from Boston U. Nothing else about the
team is flashy, but Belmont teams never are.
Runner-Up: Murray State - I won't lie. They lost a lot. OVC Player of
the Year Ja Morant (G) became the 2nd pick in the NBA Draft. OVC Defensive POY
Shaq Buchanan (G) graduated. However, Tevin Brown (G) is primed for a Sophomore
leap. Darnell Cowart can hold together the front court. And the Racers are
always good at finding underrecruited talents.
Sleeper: Austin Peay - Almost the entire roster other than 1st Team
All-Conference wing Terry Taylor is gone. Never forgot the wildcard formula:
All-Conference talent + transfers + Freshmen.
Bottom of the Barrel: SIU Edwardsville - The team was pretty deep
last year, so turnover won't hit them as hard. The problem is, they had an
awful team, so do they really want that depth back?
Patriot League
Favorite: Colgate - This is an easy pick. The Patriot League Player
of the Year (Rapolas Ivanauskas, C) and Freshman of the Year (Jordan Burns, G),
along with two other All-Conference players are back on a team that already
comfortably finished first last year.
Runner-Up: American - The Eagles also bring back the bulk of their
team, including All-Conference guard Sa'eed Nelson.
Sleeper: Bucknell - Anecdotally, I feel like Bucknell finishes top
2 every year, regardless of the lineup. So, while this group of players doesn't
look that impressive, that doesn't mean much by the end of the year.
Bottom of the Barrel: Navy - I don't trust the
military colleges. Their heads just aren't in the game. They're too worried
about protecting the world and stuff.
Southland Conference
Favorite: Nicholls St. - The Colonels are what I call a
"spreadsheet team". I have a very specific spreadsheet that I
maintain with rosters, ratings, accolades, and statuses for every D-1 team. It's
color coded and full of markings. The busier the roster makeup, the more it
stands out. Nicholls has a bunch of transfers, most not eligible until next
year. There's a lot of experience on this roster. They finished as a sub-300
team last year. No other team in the Southland really jumps out though, so I'm
betting on this upperclassmen-dominated team.
Runner-Up: New Orleans - Southland Freshman of the Year Gerrale Gates
(F) has a lot of depth pieces coming back to help him. It's not the sexiest
roster, but it doesn't take much to do well in this conference.
Sleeper: Stephen F. Austin - This team is getting a
makeover with highly rated Juco guys joining All-Conference wing Kevon Harris.
Bottom of the Barrel: Northwestern State - They were among the worst
teams in the country last year despite having Southland Defensive POY Ishmael
Lane, who has since graducated.
Embarrassingly Bad
Atlantic Sun Conference
Favorite: Liberty - They finished last year as a top 60 team and
bring back the bulk of their roster, including 1st-Team All-Conference Seniors
Caleb Homesley (G) and Scottie James (F). Expect further dominance this year.
Runner-Up: North Florida - Much of the roster is back. Defensive Player
of the Year Al-Wajid Aminu (C) will be the linchpin.
Sleeper: Lipscomb - The Bison, not Liberty,were actually the best
team in the conference last year. Their best players have graduated though. I'm
assuming the graduates were the key to Lipscomb's success. Perhaps I'm
underestimated the guys they bring back.
Bottom of the Barrel: Stetson - They'd have a better team
had 6 guys not transferred away.
Northeast Conference
Favorite: Sacred Heart - They have a pair of rising Sophomores in the
back court, the NEC Most Improved Player at the wing, and the Defensive POY in
the middle. Oh, and additional depth.
Runner-Up: Long Island University - The former LIU-Brooklyn
has four players who averaged at least 30mpg last season, including a couple
All-Conference guys.
Sleeper: St. Francis (PA) - The NEC Player of the
Year was actually on the Red Flash roster, and he's back for his Senior year.
Bottom of the Barrel: Central Connecticut State - CCSU has finished sub-300
for the last 6 seasons. Nothing about their current roster leads me to expect
anything else.
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
Favorite: Coppin State - The MEAC is really bad, guys. Only 1 out of 11
teams even finished above 300 last year. I'm assuming Coppin's 4 D-1 transfers
along with returning All-Conference guard Dejuan Clayton, will lift them
slightly above all the other awful teams.
Runner-Up: Bethune-Cookman - They do have the reigning
Defensive POY Cletrell Pope (C) on the roster still and All-Conference guard
Malik Maitland (G).
Sleeper: Morgan State - I'm very intrigued by the addition of
transfers Troy Baxter Jr. (F, from FGCU) and Troy Holston (F, from St. Joe's).
Both have underacheived after coming into college as top 150 recruits.
Bottom of the Barrel: Delaware State - 2nd worst team in the
country last year. They'll need more than mild improvements to move up from
here.
Southwestern Athletic Conference
Favorite: Texas Southern - Mike Davis left this team pretty loaded when
he left last year. Current coach Johnny Jones is keeping up the pace as best he
can. He lost a lot of players, but he did nab transfers from the likes of Texas
A&M (John Walker, F), Mississippi St (Jethro Tshisumpa, F), and South
Alabama (Jordan Andrews, G).
Runner-Up: Prairie View A&M - The Panthers were by far
the second least awful team in the SWAC last year and bring back 1st-Team
All-Conference forward Devonte Patterson. They should continue to be the 2nd
least bad team, even if it's by a slimmer margin.
Sleeper: Jackson State - SWAC Freshman of the Year Jayveous McKinnis
(F) is back and...yeah, that's about it.
Bottom of the Barrel: Mississippi Valley State - I just want to be done
with this. They're bad. Only 3 player are back from a bottom five roster in the
country. That's all you need to know.
No comments:
Post a Comment