Movie Reaction: Looper

Formula: Back to the Future +Léon: The Professional

To Sum Things Up: 

I fucking loved this movie.

Cast: I almost get tired of saying this, but Joseph Gordon-Levitt is the shit. Bruce Willis is fantastic and, at times, heartbreaking. Emily Blunt makes me like her more and more with each thing I see her in. Jeff Daniels is in it, but not used a lot. It's good to see him though. This is really one of those casts that appears designed to make me love it. Oh, there's also a cute little kid who is asked to do a lot more than he should be able to do at his age and pulls it off completely.

Plot: Let's just say it is way more than the previews make it out to be. I ate up every second of it. It's not a spoilery type of movie, but it's hard to talk about it outside of the proper context. It's all one big examination of morality thrown in the middle of a pretty spot-on action movie. It is hard to watch at some points. These are not good people and they don't always do good things. It doesn't shy away from it either. I don't want to give anything away, but I will say that the ending made me feel really stupid.

Direction: I don't normally note direction because I don't always see it when I'm watching. I wanted to note it here though. Rian Johnson has a lot of good touches that I don't see often. I'm not sure of all the technical terms for what he did, so I'll just say I really enjoyed his direction. The world of the movie is very lived-in and developed. It's actually a shame that this isn't the beginning of a series because there's a lot to be explored and there's always the sense that a lot more is going on than what we are seeing.

Elephant in the Room: Joseph Gordon-Levitt is supposed to look like Bruce Willis? Yeah, and they do a great job with that. The previews I'd seem made it look a little hokey, but they did a great job with JGL's makeup to where they do some closeups on the two is it is completely believable that one becomes the other. Also, I'm credited JGL for miming Bruce Willis' entire demeanor (since Bruce Willis basically plays one of the commonly seen shades of himself).

In Case I Wasn't Clear:

I loved this movie. Several times while I was watching it, I pulled back and told myself "I am really loving this". I don't know if it is for everyone or even everyone who wants to see it since there is a lot more to it than the previews suggest. For me though, I thought the casting is impeccable, with everyone bringing their A games. The story is very well crafted. The actions is tight and not needlessly excessive. It's one that I immediately wanted to talk to anyone who has seen it so we could dissect it. I am so glad that I saw this.

Verdict (?): Strongly Recommend

Unprovoked Opionion: TV Show Concepts

This week's TV examination is actually not going to be about any one show specifically. Instead, I'll be chewing on a few thoughts about TV show concepts for comedies.

Whenever a new TV season comes around, I always notice a divide between the shows I will give a chance and the ones I won't. Even of the shows I do continue watching versus the ones that drop off. Yes, in the end, it comes down to writing, handling of characters, and the ability to make me laugh. There is another connection though. The best way I can describe it is this: The more a show can be described by it's pitch, the less likely I am to watch it. What does that mean, exactly. Here's a couple examples from this year.

The Neighbors: Best example of a pitch-show. "A family moves into a neighborhood of aliens". That pitch probably got it into development and on the air. It's completely unique. Not likely to have a cousin on another network like "Partners" and "The New Normal". The problem is, where do you go from there. It's a funny enough premise, but what does season 2, 3, or 8 look like? I doubt we're looking at a lot of character growth. The plots will have to follow a specific "see alien neighbors do _____ for the first time" formula that will certainly follow a law of diminishing returns.

Some other pitch-heavy shows are Animal Hospital and Guys with Kids. The former is going to struggle integrating animals into everything and will eventually be hampered completely by that. The latter is an easy sell to a network but where does it go after a couple Baby Bjorn jokes. It's the same problem that Up All Night is working through. No wonder it is completely retooling itself for season 2. A show can't survive on such a definable concept.

Conversely, the have the shows I'm giving a chance. These all have simple concepts with room to stretch their legs out. Ben & Kate is one. The concept: "An irresponsible brother and a sister with a kid...uh...I'm not sure, exactly...do stuff, I guess." That show can go anywhere, be what it wants. Figure out it's strengths and rid itself of the weaknesses. Only Ben and Kate matter. The kid can even be shipped to leave with her dad if that's needed.


Another promising example is The Mindy Project. Beyond Mindy, what does that show have to do? Nothing. It's a little defined by the romantic comedy structure in the pilot, which seems a little limiting. The good thing is, that can be tinkered with over time. I'm not worried about it.

This isn't even a new formula. Think about the best sitcoms. Cheer - "A show about a bar". Friends - "A show about six friends in New York". The Office - "A show about an office." Fuck, even Two and a Half Men. That was originally about two brothers and a kid and it was loose enough to just be about two men, who are virtual strangers, and a kid, who is an adult by now. It's harder to come up with a list of the high concept shows since so few of them work. Outsourced and Cavemen come to mind. In fact, I can only think of one series that has survived despite the high concept, which has limited it for years -

How I Met Your mother is the most frustrating show on TV. I've always hated the premise. Despite loving the first season, I stopped watching it for a few years because of the premise. Largely, the only reason the show has survived and maintained any of it's quality is when it ignores the premise. The timeline jumping and build up to the mother is one giant risk after another. It's actually astounding the show works so damn well when you think about it.

Think about it. Ted tells his kids "That's your aunt Robin" in the first episode. What if it turns out that that character doesn't work at all? They can't get rid of her. She's been referenced as an important part of the story already. They don't even have the option of her and Ted ending up together if that is the way they wanted to go. Luckily, Colbie Smulders has nailed that character and Robin has been morphed into more of a match for Barney rather seamlessly.

Ted's character is the best example of all. He exists completely in stasis (I hope I'm using that word anywhere near correctly). He has to be the same man who would fall head over heels for the wife that he keeps describing. The Ted character has to be fully developed and realized by episode 1. Any character growth or change has to already be known, to fit who he is when he meets the mother. I can't imagine how hard it must be to write a character who is a hopeless romantic always knowing that you can't let him date someone and let it work out. At this point, his inability to stay in a relationship has led to making him a less and less likable character.

For fuck's sake, am I the only one who realizes that the Bob Saget voice-over is a completely different person than Ted? Is there any way that current Ted can become future Ted in, what, 15 years?

I'll get off my soapbox now. It makes me sad though, that a sometimes brilliant show is so often weakened by that initial pitch.

Well, hopefully all my weekly TV spotlights won't be this long. I kind of got going and couldn't stop. Hopefully this wasn't complete nonsense to you.

DVR Purge 9/22-9/28

Welcome to the introductory DVR Purge. As I said, the form of this will change as I figure out how this works best. For now, I'm thinking of giving a quick reaction on most things with one weekly spotlight show, chosen arbitrarily.

This week's spotlight is not about a specific show. It's more of an overview of new shows. Sorry, it got a little long.
Spotlight: TV Show Concepts

How I Met Your Mother "Farhampton"
The end is near. At least it feels that way. Everyone is phoning it in at this point. I would trade their narrative tricks for an episode that has the gang letting loose and having fun. This episode didn't overtly frustrate me, so I'm calling it a win.

Partners "Pilot"
There is a version of this show I would love to watch. Sadly, the pilot is outright homophobic and can't get past cheap wordplay and a barrage of the most generic gay jokes this side of a grade school playground. Honestly, it made me angry to watch.

The New Girl "Re-Launch"
I wonder when/if that show will make that last jump into being a top tier comedy. The premiere paralleled the pilot with Jess being depressed and really highlights the growth of the rest of the cast that it wasn't completely dominated by it. I'm glad seeing they know how to make Winston funny. I just wish they could make him fit with the rest of the show.

Ben and Kate "Pilot"
I don't know how I feel about this cast and as much as I like the kid, I feel like she could become a liability down the line. This is the most ready-made new show I've seen

The New Girl "Katie"
The Jess plot was annoyingly contrived. No way around that. I hate stories built on needless misunderstandings that one short conversation could fix unless the jokes from it far outweigh the negatives. They didn't. Nick thinking he met his future self is not one I enjoyed much either. They should've taken it much further or not as far as they did.

The Mindy Project "Pilot"
I'm curious to see if every episode will actually have the look of a RomCom. It looked really polished for a TV show. I wasn't in love with the pilot episode. The show has an embarrassment of talented people behind it, so, without hesitation, I'll give it the whole season to mature before I consider stopping it.

Go On "Bench-Clearing Brawl"
I've seen 3 or 4 episodes so far. It's harmless in a way that makes it easy to watch hard to care. It will be dropped when Happy Endings takes up that DVR real estate. There are too many characters I don't like much and no signs of needed depth. Most importantly, they are without the kind of zingers that keep me watching.

Tosh.0
Can you really say there's a good or bad episode of this? You either like it or hate it. I, like it. For a return from hiatus episode, I expected a little more polish to it.

The Middle "The Last Whiff of Summer"
I commend the attempt to explain the summer. This mostly felt needlessly long. All the standard beats were there, meaning, I didn't love the episode, but I far from hated it. It's all about waiting until they have another episode like the one with the funeral last year.

Modern Family "Bringing Up Baby"
This kind of Modern Family is the kind I love to watch. The sight gags and punchlines were all earned and nothing felt like they were adding it only to hit a comedic beat. The jump forward to the end of the summer was one of the best handled time jumps I've seen. Hopefully this is a return to the season 1 form.

Key & Peele Season 2: Episode 1

SNL Weekend Update
I still don't get how these are Weekend Updates...on Thursday. I like Jay Pharaoh's Obama a lot more than Armisen's. I think watching this hits my weekly politics quotient leading up to the election...and even then, it's a little more than I'd like.
 
The Big Bang Theory "The Date Night Variable"
Pretty slight for a season premiere. Is it possible that it didn't have enough of any character? Oh, except Raj. That was too much of him and I'm kind of confused by him setting up the man-date at the end. Was that just for a punchline or is that setting something up for the season? No sure. We'll see.

Up All Night "Home/Office"
I think I like the retooling they've done for this season. My issue with this show has always been that, as much as I like the characters, The Ava Show has always been a drag. I'm curious to see how it is going further. It has potential to make "the jump".

The Office "Roy's Wedding"
Wow, Clark is an asshole. Overall, I think I've come to terms with what the Office is now and I enjoyed this episode a good deal. Nellie and Dwight could be a pairing I really enjoy seeing. As far as Jim and Pam are concerned, I really hope what they are building to pays off. Right now, their storyline is a drag.

Parks and Rec. "Soda Tax"
Initially, at least, this was a weaker episode, which is still better than almost anything I've seen this week. Lonely Chris is getting a little tiring as is someone telling April she needs to live up to her potential. The opening and closing tags made me laugh hard though, and any time Ron and Leslie have a meaningful talk is something special, so I chalking any concerns I have to easing into the new status-quo. Love this show!

Louie "New Year's Eve"
I've never been all that hot on Louie finales. This one is no exception. This opening story about the Christmas gifts was one of the highlights of the season for me. The return of Parker Posey was enjoyably macabre and fits the show perfectly. I can't say I care much for the China bit. It would've been just as well had he gone and sat in a back table at the Comedy Cellar watching an open-mic night or something. Overall, a wonderful, wonderful season though,

Emmy Predictions 2013

Another year, another list of disappointing results. I know it's a whole year away, but who says that's too soon to start thinking about next year? No me. My predictions from last year were a little over 50% right. Let's see if I can improve on that for next year.

1) Modern Family is dethroned and doesn't pull another 6 supporting acting nominations.

2) Dennis Quaid pulls a lead acting nomination for Las Vegas.

3) Homeland doesn't repeat.

4) Parks and Recreation makes it's way back into the Best Comedy field.

5) No return in sight for the big 4 networks in the best Drama field.

6) Parker Posey pulls a guest acting nomination for her work on Louie.

7) Only one show from HBO lands a best Comedy nom,

8) A Greg Danials run Office returns to the best Comedy field.

9) Breaking Bad takes a big step back in nominations.

10) ...might as well try this again. I watch at least one of the Mini-Series/TV Movie nominations.

Emmy Predictions 2012 - Results

Way back in September 2011, I made 10 predictions about the 2012 Emmys. Oddly, that became the most viewed page I have. I guess the audacity of prognosticating that far in advanced struck some curiosity, or so few people did it that it buffered me in search results. Whatever the case may be, it's time to see how I did.

Prediction: Zooey Deschanel will get a nomination for Lead Actress in a Comedy series after a season of heavy lifting on New Girl's first season,

Reality: Correct, although the show did balance itself by the end of the season. (+1)
 

Prediction: Shameless reclassifies itself as a Comedy and Emmy Rossum also get that Lead Actress nomination everyone assumed she would get this year.


Reality: Wrong on all accounts. Wishful thinking and Emmy blindness. I can't even blame a lack of awareness of Showtime drama either. (+0)


Prediction: Glee continues it's fall from grace, this time getting snubbed from Outstanding Comedy Series and getting noms. for Jane Lynch or Chris Colfer (not both).

Reality: I'm calling this correct even though it slightly outpaced my prediction, landing 0 supporting noms but a guest acting nom. (+1)


Prediction: Daily Show goes for 10 in a row. (Like it needed to be said)

Reality: It didn't need to be said. (+1)


Prediction: Mad Men's streak ends, but the award doesn't go far. Mad Men fails to make history as the first 5 time drama winner due to Breaking Bad dethroning the champ.

Reality: I was halfway right. Mad Men didn't go for an historic 5th win. The big prize continues to elude Breaking Bad though. (+.5)


Prediction: More than Aaron Paul and Bryan Cranston get acting noms. from Breaking Bad.

Reality: Nailed it. I think this will be the nomination high point though. (+1)


Prediction: Nick Offerman finally gets his nomination.

Reality: I don't want to talk about. (+0)


Prediction: Community ends it's major Emmy snubbing with something small (Guest Actor for John Goodman, perhaps).

Reality: I'm crediting this as correct although I arguably aimed too small. A writing nom was more than I could've hoped for. (+1)


Prediction: A Post-Carrell Office still gets an Outstanding Comedy Series nom. along with a nom. for Spader in whatever category he submits in.

Reality: I was gleefully wrong. It got even worse to the point that even the Emmys couldn't ignore. (+0)


Prediction: <<<Biggest Longshot of this list>>> I watch at least one of the nominees for MiniSeries or Movie before the awards ceremony. 

Reality: Nope. My bad. (+0)


 In all, I went 5.5/10. More right than wrong is pretty good. Time to start working on a few guesses for next year.

Emmy Post-Mortem

This will surprise you to hear, I'm sure, but all my time spent watching TV, in depth research about Emmy voting tendencies, and thorough analysis amounted to little or no predictive advantage over the average schmuck who hasn't seen 2/3 of the shows and hasn't heard of the other 1/3. I don't even think I did the best at my own Emmy gathering (not a party - results pending). I'm okay with that. The Emmys coming around causes me to reflect on what I've enjoyed watching the most over the past year and give me the chance to jump for joy when someone is recognized who I think deserve it. In the majority of the results that differ from mine, I understand the logic and politely disagree. On the egregious picks, I can always fall back on the old adage that it's just "the Emmys being the Emmys" even if they aren't as bad as people remember.

Instead of going over each and every one of my mistakes in embarrassing detail, I'm breaking this down to the Good, the Bad, and the Meh.

The Good

Homeland
The second this won for writing (Mad Men's bread and butter. See three nominations) I knew it was time to corronate a new king. This was not my pick to win, but not far off. Part of me questions if the material was good enough to match the performances. Beyond that, no issue here. Cranston can't win every year (I'm told) and Lewis did a great job keeping us guessing. Claire Danes' win is the biggest no-brainer in recent Emmy history. She put on one of the great dramatic performances in television history. She was just that good in this. I have no faith that the show will maintain this quality for season 2 or beyond (please, prove me wrong). For this moment in time though, I have no qualms with seeing this atop the mountain.

Louie CK
An acting win would've been nice, and I wish that "Pregnant" didn't earn him an Emmy over "Duckling", but two wins is two wins. He's almost unquestionably the best comedian out there right now (just ask any comedian for christ's sake), so it's nice to see his writing getting awards. "Live at the Beacon Theater" is a pretty great comedy special, especially considering he is using material that was not used in his show at all. That is an insane amount of new material. Absolutely insane. Speaking of his show, it has a win on the books now. Completely deserving even if not for that episode. I know CK has his detractors. I ask any of them to watch the show and tell me that it isn't a quality project. 

The Daily Show
A boring win is not an undeserved win. I feel a little bad that The Colbert Report will never get out of it's shadow, but The Daily Show really is excellence in it's form. No show should be this funny doing this many episodes a year. It is really something special that we won't fully appreciate until it's not around anymore.

The Bad

Modern Family
I don't get it. This, simply is not the best comedy on TV. The actors are not the best. The writing is not the best. The directing is too hampered by the other weak elements. I was completely on board with the first season win. Only Parks and Rec. put together a better season that year. Ever since, it has gotten broader, destroyed characters by turning them into cartoons, and repeatedly written episodes that sacrifice a character for an easy joke. Sadly, Eric Stonestreet did not put together one episode worthy of beating numerous of his other nominees, not to mention a long list of those not nominated (See the casts of Community, Parks and Rec, Happy Endings, It's Always Sunny...). The same goes for Julie Bowen. Neither of them are bad actors. Stonestreet totally deserved it two years ago and I've been a Bowen fan for years. The material they have to work with is frustratingly bad and getting lazier and worse. almost with each new episode.

Jon Cryer


This is bad for who he had to be to win this. Louie CK completely anchors his show almost single-handedly. Alec Baldwin has won enough, sure, but there's a reason for all the wins and nominations. Jim Parsons gives a committed and nuanced performance every time the camera is turned on. Even Larry David is doing something impressive on a show that, truth be told, I'm not the biggest fan of. Jon Cryer doesn't have any business winning here. Granted, his reaction reflected sincere bewilderment. I'll credit him for that.

Game Change 
Full disclosure, I haven't seen this. Part of that is intentional. The phrase "low hanging fruit" comes to mind. Sarah Palin was a punchline virtually the second she was announced as McCain's running mate in 2008. She was a gimmick pulled by the campaign of a man who was never going to beat Obama (NEVER). Perhaps I'll be proven wrong by the finished product, but, you know how they always talk about how liberal Hollywood is, right now, that's all this seems to be.

The Meh

Breaking Bad 
Aaron Paul, as the co-lead of the show, certainly deserved the Supporting Actor win. Gunn and Esposito were justly nominated, which I never thought would happen. Cranston has a trophy collection at home, so I can forgive him losing this year even if it was, in my opinion, hands down, his best season. I'm torn, because this was Breaking Bad's best chance to win. Season 4 was a high point that the show probably won't be able to return to. Mad Men fatigue was kicking in to allow a new winner and another show capitalized on it. Good for it. Like season 4 of Dexter though, it's a shame that when young TV junkies like myself look back on the awards in 25 years, there will be nothing to point to the greatness that was.

Downton Abbey
With so many nominations, it had to win at least one. I disagree with the one though. All this is coming for having not seen any of it, but I'm having a hard time not viewing the Maggie Smith win from the perspective of who she got in the way of.

Julia Louis-Dreyfus
I literally just watched Veep. JLD is fantastic in it. She's good in everything she does. I've referred to her in the past as the Meryl Streep of the Emmys. Living legend is not far off from where she is now. This was Amy Poehler's though. It was last year too. It physically pains me to see a role like Leslie Knope to be one-upped by something new year after year. I happened to Jane Kazmerek, Hugh Laurie, Steve Carrell, and so many others. Also, watching Veep, I was really reminded of Gary Shandling in The Larry Sanders Show. As good as both were in their respective shows, so much of the shows were about the other actors playing around the lead. A great Lead performance should be the actor taking control of the scenes. In Veep, she is handed them. That isn't a knock, per se. It's the intended style of the show. However, I have a hard time coming to terms with that being Emmy worthy individually when it's the work of the ensemble.

There you have it, my thoughts on the night. Like every year, it's left me a little cold inside, with hope that they can make a better decision next year, but mostly just happy to take that last look at the past year and excited to see what great shows and seasons will come by the next one of these.

Movie Reaction: The Master

Formula:  There Will Be Blood - Oil + Religion

Cast: Wow, Joaquin Phoenix was uncomfortable to watch. This, of course, is said with reverence and respect. Paul Thomas Anderson has a way of pulling out great performances out of actors and this is no exception. Philip Seymour Hoffman does a great job playing the imposing patriarch. I've always liked him, but most of the roles I've seen him in recently have had him as a gruff, tired type. This was a nice shift. Amy Adams was really good as well. Jesse Plemons was greatly underused. Then again, I'm always happy to see him working. Really, this was an actors' showcase and it didn't disappoint. Any kind of awards attention they get will be completely worthy.

Plot: Oy. I left the movie wondering "what's the point?". There was a lot of build, and everything was well shot and enjoyable to watch. Much like "There Will Be Blood", when the ending finally came, I didn't understand what it was all for. At least "There Will Be Blood" had milkshakes. This, sort of ended. The last half hour could've ended with any scene and left me feeling the same way. I have trouble calling that great.

Elephant in the Room: Isn't this about Scientology? Kinda sorta. Sure, I guess it is. I won't say it hits you over the head with the commentary on that. It's about a "cult" leader and those that follow him. Almost any non-batshit crazy cult is going to be similar to Scientology. Watch it for the acting and the plot, not the vague commentary on Scientology.

To Sum Things Up:
It's worth seeing because it is well made. This movie will be to 2012 what The Tree of Life was to 2011. There's undeniable value to it and great film-making on display, but there are parts that will be received wildly differently. For me, I thought it was incomplete. A number of people will probably tell me it's supposed to be like that, then look at me like a child for not being able to understand that. Then again, I'll look at them as pretentious asses who think that just because something is dense, it's good. It is certainly worthy to be in discussion for things at year's end, but certainly was not my taste. Still, better than most of the movies I've seen lately. 

Verdict (?): Weakly Recommend

Emmy Hopes

In all the fun of going through the dozens of categories in detail despite not having seen any of the nominees in several categories and making predictions for who will and won't win and why, I nearly forgot to put on the record who I want to win.
I'm going to do my best to soapboxing about snubs and the like, so if you'd really like to know who I think is missing, you can check my Emmy Reactions post.
I also don't want to go over who I think will win again, so check out those posts for that info:

Directing
Writing
Guest Acting
Supporting Acting
Lead Acting
Series

Ok. That's covered. Onto the fun.

Comedy

Series: Girls - I only recently watched it. Easily a top 5 comedy for me. The problem is, the other 4 weren't nominated. I would be super happy for this to win though.

Lead Actor: Louie CK for Louie - Find me a more nuanced, hilarious, heartbreaking performance. You can't.

Lead Actress: Amy Poehler for Parks & Rec. - One of the finest comedic performances in the past decade. She simply must get recognized for this.

Supporting Actor: Bill Hader for SNL - He was good. Far from my pick overall. Mostly, I don't want another Modern Family sweep.

Supporting Actress: Mayim Bialik for Big Bang Theory - Amy Farrah Fowler has nearly Urkeled the show and to it's benefit.

Writing: "Win, Lose, or Draw" Parks & Rec. - I want them all to win. When it comes down to it, Parks & Rec. is the least excusible Emmy oversight and deserves this win for not being in the run for series.

Directing: "Duckling" Louie - Best in the field. I wouldn't hate Girls winning, but "Duckling" was the most impressive direction overall.

Drama

Series: Breaking Bad - Begining to end, a great season. Homeland and Mad Men would both be acceptible alternatives.

Lead Actor: Bryan Cranston for Breaking Bad - I've given up on spreading the wealth. Hamm is certainly deserving, maybe not for this season. Same goes for Hall. Lewis was great, but upstaged by Danes and Patinkin too often. I can't speak for the other two nominees.

Lead Actress: Claire Danes for Homeland - She was so good in this.

Supporting Actor: Breaking Bad. Giancarlo Esposito or Aaron Paul were both spectacular. I give Paul my personal edge, however Esposito was about the coolest villain I've seen in a while.

Supporting Actress: Christina Hendricks for Mad Men - It's time. Mad Men needs an acting win and her work this season more than earned one.

Writing: "Far Away Places" Mad Men - I think the other two Mad Men episodes hit you in the gut more, but this one is the episode I'll remember best, not hinging on a couple scenes.

Directing: "Face Off" Breaking Bad - I have never seen a show ramp up the tension for an entire season and conclude it so satisfyingly.

Mini-Series/Movie

Series: Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia - I'm not invested, but I'd enjoy the win.

Lead Actor: I don't care.

Lead Actress: I don't care.

Supporting Actor: I don't care.

Supporting Actress: I don't care.

Writing: Steven Moffat for Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia - I love Steven Moffat and haven't seen any of the nominees.

Directing: Sherlock: Paul McGuigan for Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia - Pretty much due to bleed-over of Steven Moffat love.

Reality

Reality Competition: The Voice. Just to seal the fate of American Idol.

Host: Super don't care.


Variety

Variety Series: The Daily Show - 1) It's going to win. 2) It should win.

Variety Special Writing: Live at the Beacon Theater - I love Louis CK and this was a great special.

Variety Special Direction: Live at the Beacon Theater - I love Louis CK and this was a great special.

Emmy Predictions: Series

I won't bother explaining my format or anything. If you really can't figure that out. Check Part 1.

Emmy Predictions:
Part 1: Directing
Part 2: Writing
Part 3: Guest Acting
Part 4: Supporting Acting
Part 5: Lead Acting

Outstanding Drama Series
Mad Men (AMC)
Stiff competition. Until it loses, don't be against it.
Downton Abbey (PBS)
If anything dethrones Mad Men it's this.
Homeland (Showtime)
Stealth cindidate to win.
Breaking Bad (AMC)
Such a good season. Can't see it winning though.
Game of Thrones (HBO)
Great genre fare, not about to breakthrough yet.
Boardwalk Empire (HBO)
Fell is esteem since last year.

Outstanding Comedy Series
Modern Family (ABC)
Until it loses, don't bet against it.
The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
If anything unseats Modern Family it's this.
Girls (HBO)
A lot of HBO love could be a factor.
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Hasn't managed to win yet.
Veep (HBO)
Too much a vehicle for the lead.
30 Rock (NBC)
All downhill from here.
 

Outstanding Miniseries or TV Movie
Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia (PBS)
It could happen.
Hatfields & McCoys (History)
Massive ratings. It could translate.
Luther (BBC America)
Why isn't this Doctor Who?
American Horror Story (FX)
It's a series! Don't reward that!
Game Change (HBO)
Not a big year for HBO, I feel.
Hemingway & Gellhorn (HBO)
When did this even air?

Outstanding Variety, Music, or Comedy Series
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central)
Death, taxes, and Daily Show winning.
The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)
Could be time for little brother to step up.
Late Night with Jimmy Fallon (NBC)
From here on, it doesn't matter who I pick.
Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
Keeps getting nominated.
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Still takes too much criticism.
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)
This should be Portlandia.

Outstanding Variety, Music, or Comedy Special
Betty White's 90th Birthday: A Tribute To America's Golden Girl (NBC)
They love Betty White.
Mel Brooks and Dick Cavett Together Again (HBO)
I love Mel Brooks.
Kathy Griffin: Tired Hooker (Bravo)
Her time has passed.
Kennedy Center Honors (CBS)
Umm, maybe.
Tony Bennett: Duets II (Great Performances) (PBS)
Seriously, when is Live at the Beacon Theater.

Outstanding Reality Competition Series
The Amazing Race (CBS)
Upon cancellation, the category will be named after this show.
Top Chef (Bravo)
The only other winner.
So You Think You Can Dance (FOX)
Surprisingly well regarded show.
The Voice (NBC)
Could it do what American Idol never could? No.
Dancing with the Stars (ABC)
If it hasn't happened yet, it won't.
Project Runway (Lifetime)
Does Lifetime ever win anything.







Outstanding Reality Program
Mythbusters (Discovery Channel)
It could be the year, finally.
Jamie Oliver's Food Revolution (ABC)
Good title for a win.
Who Do You Think You Are? (NBC)
It seems like Emmy-bait.
Undercover Boss (CBS)
It's only gotten worse.
Shark Tank (ABC)
Ugh.
Antiques Roadshow (PBS)
It's like the retired uncle of this category.

Outstanding Children's Program
iCarly (Nickelodeon)
I don't know this category. Not with these choices.
Good Luck Charlie (Disney Channel)
My lack of knowledge works in it's favor.
Wizards of Waverly Place (Disney Channel)
This is still on?
Degrassi (TeenNick)
Been a while since I'd actually pick this to win.
Victorious (Nickelodeon)
Ironic that it won't win.

Emmy Predictions: Lead Acting

I won't bother explaining my format or anything. If you really can't figure that out. Check Part 1.

Emmy Predictions:
Part 1: Directing
Part 2: Writing
Part 3: Guest Acting
Part 4: Supporting Acting

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad "Crawl Space") (AMC)
Calling this a lock.
Damian Lewis (Homeland "Marine One") (Showtime)
Only if Homeland wins big.
Jon Hamm (Mad Men "The Other Woman") (AMC)
Cranston has his number, sadly.
Hugh Bonneville (Downton Abbey "Episode Seven") (PBS)
Downton Abbey love can't make room here.
Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire "Two Boats and a Lifeguard") (HBO)
Last year was his chance.
Michael C. Hall (Dexter "Nebraska") (Showtime)
Awful, awful episode. Horribly acted by a great actor.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Claire Danes (Homeland "The Vest") (Showtime)
Watch Homeland. How can she not win?
Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife "Parenting Made Easy") (CBS)
She does carry the show.
Elisabeth Moss (Mad Men "The Other Woman") (AMC)
Always solid, but not a stong year.
Glenn Close (Damages "I've Done Way Too Much for This Girl") (Audience Network)
You never know.
Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey "Episode Seven") (PBS)
Don't see Downton Abbey making room here either.
Kathy Bates (Harry's Law "Onward and Upward") (NBC)
Nope. Not even considering it.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory "The Werewolf Transformation") (CBS)
I suspect a big year for Big Bang.
Louis C.K. (Louie "Duckling") (FX)
I want to believe and it is a spectacular showcase.
Alec Baldwin (30 Rock "Live from Studio 6H") (NBC)
Never bet against him.
Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm "Palestinian Chicken") (HBO)
Lots of nominations, never a win.
Jon Cryer (Two and a Half Men "Frodo's Headshots") (CBS)
Moving up to the big leagues, not too quickly though.
Don Cheadle (House of Lies "Gods of Dangerous Financial Institutions") (Showtime)
Please, dear god no.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep "Tears") (HBO)
Meryl Streep of Comedy Emmys.
Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation "Win, Lose, or Draw") (NBC)
A boy can dream.
Melissa McCarthy (Mike & Molly "The Dress") (CBS)
She did win last year, after all.
Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie "Disneyland Sucks") (Showtime)
Former winner. Doubtful to win.
Tina Fey (30 Rock "The Tuxedo Begins") (NBC)
Former winner. Doubtful to win.
Lena Dunham (Girls "She Did") (HBO)
Not the time for the new girl.
Zooey Deschanel (New Girl "Bad in Bed") (FOX)
Not the time for the New Girl.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or a Movie
Kevin Costner (Hatfields & McCoys) (History)
Biggest name on a ratings smash.
Benedict Cumberbatch (Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia) (PBS)
I mean, it's called Sherlock.
Idris Elba (Luther) (BBC America)
I like him.
Bill Paxton (Hatfields & McCoys) (History)
2nd biggest name on a ratings smash.
Woody Harrelson (Game Change) (HBO)
Nope.
Clive Owen (Hemingway & Gellhorn) (HBO)
Nope.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or a Movie
Julianne Moore (Game Change) (HBO)
Great transformation.
Emma Thompson (The Song of Lunch) (PBS)
She's Emma "fucking" Thompson
Nicole Kidman (Hemingway & Gellhorn) (HBO)
Always give the Oscar winner a chance.
Ashley Judd (Missing) (ABC)
Nominated solely for her name.
Connie Britton (American Horror Story) (FX)
She's not beating those names.

Emmy Predictions: Supporting Acting

I won't bother explaining my format or anything. If you really can't figure that out. Check Part 1.

Emmy Predictions:
Part 1: Directing
Part 2: Writing
Part 3: Guest Acting

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad "End Times") (AMC)
Two reigning winners. Performances on different levels though.
Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones "Blackwater") (HBO)
The other reigning winner.
Jim Carter (Downton Abbey "Episode Two") (PBS)
There's a lot of Downton Abbey love.
Brendan Coyle (Downton Abbey "Episode Seven") (PBS)
A LOT of Downton Abbey love.
Jared Harris (Mad Men "Commissions and Fees") (AMC)
Will Mad Men ever win for acting?
Giancarlo Esposito (Breaking Bad "Hermanos") (AMC)
Aaron Paul is getting the Breaking Bad win here.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey "Episode One") (PBS)
Academy Award winning dame on a hot show. 
Christina Hendricks (Mad Men "The Other Woman") (AMC)
She has to win eventually.
Christine Baranski (The Good Wife "Alienation of Affection") (CBS)
The Emmys do like Christine Baranski.
Joanne Froggatt (Downton Abbey "Episode Seven") (PBS)
Probably not the winner coming out of Downton Abbey.
Archie Panjabi (The Good Wife "The Dream Team") (CBS)
Previous winner. Doubt she's a repeat winner.
Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad "Cornered") (AMC)
Happy to even see her nominated.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Ed O'Neill (Modern Family "Baby on Board") (ABC)
They're working through the cast. Bundys go first.
Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family "Leap Day") (ABC)
I don't like submission episode. Modern Family will win though.
Bill Hader (Saturday Night Live "Host: Katy Perry") (NBC)
Stefan.
Max Greenfield (New Girl "Control") (FOX)
I don't see New Girl as an Emmy winner.
Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family "Treehouse") (ABC)
He had his win. He's not David Hyde Pierce.
Ty Burrell (Modern Family "Lifetime Supply") (ABC)
He had his win. He's not John Larroquette.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Mayim Bialik (The Big Bang Theory "The Shiny Trinket Maneuver") (CBS)
They love boy Sheldon, why not girl Sheldon?
Sofía Vergara (Modern Family "Tableau Vivant") (ABC)
Eventually she will win.
Kathryn Joosten (Desperate Housewives "Finishing the Hat") (ABC)
She died. Could be a wild card.
Kristen Wiig (Saturday Night Live "Host: Mick Jagger") (NBC)
Still riding that Bridesmaids wave.
Julie Bowen (Modern Family "Go Bullfrogs!") (ABC)
She has her win. She's not Megan Mullally.
Merritt Wever (Nurse Jackie "One-Armed Jacks") (Showtime)
Be happy you're nominated.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or a Movie
Martin Freeman (Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia) (PBS)
Uh, no idea.
Ed Harris (Game Change) (HBO)
He's famous. Reason enough.
David Strathairn (Hemingway & Gellhorn) (HBO)
Might as well.
Denis O'Hare (American Horror Story) (FX)
It's a fucking series. I hope it wins nothing.
Tom Berenger (Hatfields & McCoys) (History)
I think the big names get the win.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or a Movie
Jessica Lange (American Horror Story) (FX)
I heard she was good in this.
Sarah Paulson (Game Change) (HBO)
It could happen.
Mare Winningham (Hatfields & McCoys) (History)
Big ratings could translate.
Frances Conroy (American Horror Story) (FX)
Never won for Six Feet Under.
Judy Davis (Page Eight) (PBS)
Never heard of it or her.

Movie Reaction: ParaNorman

Formula: Ghost Town + The Gooinies

[Voice] Cast: I didn't know any of the voices going in, so I had fun figuring that out as I went along. They found pretty good voice matches for most of the characters. My personal favorite touch was, I believe Jeff Garlin and Jon Goodman play brothers. I'd believe that in real life.

Plot: I was very reminded of when I saw Hugo when I watched this. That's high praise, mind you. The first half of the movie was a pretty standard kid's movie. Then, in the second act, it kicked it up a gear, to the point that I wondered if this was even meant for kids at all. Parts are so harrowing I wonder how a kid would even respond to it and the movie's treatment of death is pretty intense, for any age. It really impressed me.

Animation: I'm not a huge fan of this style overall, but there are some moments when this movie looks visually stunning. I can't even imagine what this would be like in 3D. It certainly didn't need it. By the end, I even grew to kind of like the look.

Elephant in the Room: If you waited this long to see it, you obviously weren't all that excited to see it. I really wasn't. I read a surprisingly positive review of this by a reviewer I trust, but even still, it took several weeks of weak releases and a lot of slow nights for me to see it. So glad I did though.

To Sum Things Up:
I doubt I can convince anyone of this, but I recommend this movie for anyone. It is surprisingly enjoyable. The plot deals with pretty heavy issues and treats them with a lot of delicacy. There's even a number of laugh out loud moments too. This is the kind of movie I always hope to stumble upon by doing this weekly movie thing.

Verdict (?): Strongly Recommend

Emmy Predictions: Writing

I won't bother explaining my format or anything. If you really can't figure that out. Check Part 1.

Emmy Predictions:
Part 1: Directing


Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
Mad Men "Far Away Places" (AMC)
Mad Men will win. Accept this. Best written of these.
Mad Men "Commissions and Fees" (AMC)
My second favorite Mad Men nominee.
Mad Men "The Other Woman" (AMC)
Mad Men will win. Didn't care for this episode though.
Homeland "Pilot" (Showtime)
Good pilot. Not amazing writing however.
Downton Abbey "Episode Seven" (PBS)
I'm sure it's but, but I haven't seen it.

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
Parks and Recreation "The Debate" (NBC)
Great episode. Please let P&R win.
Girls "Pilot" (HBO)
If Girls sneaks in a win, it's here.
Parks and Recreation "Win, Lose, or Draw" (NBC)
Two nominations is a good sign for P&R.
Louie "Pregnant" (FX)
Love this show, disliked this episode.
Community "Remedial Chaos Theory" (NBC)
Still stunned it got nominated. Not dreaming too big.

Outstanding Writing for a Miniseries, Movie, or Dramatic Special
Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia (PBS)
I love Steve Moffat. This blinds me. I know it.
Hatfields & McCoys (History)
Big rating. Big nominations. Always a possibility.
Luther (BBC America)
Nominated last year (maybe). Anyone's guess.
Game Change (HBO)
Generic HBO movie nomination.
The Hour (BBC America)
Only major nomination. Not good odds.

Outstanding Writing for a Variety, Music, or Comedy Program
The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)
Trades off with Daily Show every year.
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central)
Won last year.
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
It has more momentum than most years.
Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
Yearly nomination. Never wins.
Portlandia (IFC)
Should be happy to be nominated.

Outstanding Writing for a Variety, Music, or Comedy Special
Live at the Beacon Theater (FX)
So many CK nominations have to pay off somewhere.
Betty White's 90th Birthday: A Tribute To America's Golden Girl (NBC)
Emmys love Betty White.
65th Annual Tony Awards (CBS)
Still the best of the award shows.
The Kennedy Center Honors (CBS)
Didn't watch it.
84th Annual Academy Awards (ABC)
If you watched it, you wouldn't pick it either.

Outstanding Writing for Nonfiction Programming
Anthony Bourdain: No Reservations (Travel Channel)
I expect PBS to cancel itself out.
Prohibition (PBS)
Sexiest title.
American Masters (PBS)
2nd sexiest title.
American Experience: Clinton (PBS)
3rd sxiest title.
Sesame Street: Growing Hope Against Hunger (PBS)
Not a sexy title.

Emmy Predictions: Guest Acting

I won't bother explaining my format or anything. If you really can't figure that out. Check Part 1.

Emmy Predictions:
Part 1: Directing
Part 2: Writing

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series
Michael J. Fox (The Good Wife "Parenting Made Easy") (CBS)
I see a two win night for Fox.
Ben Feldman (Mad Men "Dark Shadows") (AMC)
Logged major minutes for a Guest actor.
Mark Margolis (Breaking Bad "Face Off") (AMC)
Does so much with a look and a bell.
Dylan Baker (The Good Wife "Marthas and Caitlins") (CBS)
No reason.
Jeremy Davies (Justified "Coalition") (FX)
Justified has fallen from favor too much.
Jason Ritter (Parenthood "Politics") (NBC)
They know Parenthood exists!?

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series
Loretta Devine (Grey's Anatomy "If Only You Were Lonely") (ABC)
Do they allow consecutive wins?
Julia Ormond (Mad Men "The Phantom") (AMC)
Eventually, Mad Men has to win for acting.
Martha Plimpton (The Good Wife "The Dream Team") (CBS)
Lead Actress nomination last year...in comedy.
Joan Cusack (Shameless "Can I Have a Mother") (Showtime)
To recognize her and not Emmy Rossum: Criminal.
Jean Smart (Harry's Law "The Rematch") (NBC)
The battle of who could care less.
Uma Thurman (Smash "Tech") (NBC)
The battle of who could care less.

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
Michael J. Fox (Curb Your Enthusiasm "Larry vs. Michael J. Fox") (HBO)
I see a two win night for Fox.
Jon Hamm (30 Rock "Live from Studio 6H") (NBC)
Not winning for Mad Men. Could be a consolation prize.
Greg Kinnear (Modern Family "Me? Jealous?") (ABC)
Only if Modern Family dominates the night again.
Jimmy Fallon (Saturday Night Live "Host: Jimmy Fallon") (NBC)
They love old cast members.
Will Arnett (30 Rock "Idiots Are People Three!") (NBC)
He certainly get nominated enough here.
Bobby Cannavale (Nurse Jackie "Disneyland Sucks") (Showtime)
Who?

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series
Melissa McCarthy (Saturday Night Live "Host: Melissa McCarthy") (NBC)
Still riding that Bridesmaids wave.
Maya Rudolph (Saturday Night Live "Host: Maya Rudolph") (NBC)
The love old cast members.
Dot-Marie Jones (Glee "Choke") (FOX)
If not SNL, certainly Glee.
Elizabeth Banks (30 Rock "The Return of Avery Jessup") (NBC)
The character wears on me too much.
Margaret Cho (30 Rock "The Return of Avery Jessup") (NBC)
How did she get nominated? Not a complaint though.
Kathy Bates (Two and a Half Men "Why We Gave Up Women") (CBS)
Please no.

Outstanding Host for a Reality or Reality-Competition Program
Betty White for Betty White's Off Their Rockers (NBC)
The Katharine Hepburn of the Emmys.
Cat Deeley for So You Think You Can Dance (FOX)
I keep hearing how good she is.
Phil Keoghan for The Amazing Race (CBS)
The show keeps winning. Maybe to translates.
Ryan Seacrest for American Idol (FOX)
Too much of a punchline.
Tom Bergeron for Dancing with the Stars (ABC)
No, just no.

Emmy Predictions: Directing

It's that time again*. The Emmy Awards show is almost here. That means it's time for me to act like I'm some sort of expert and give my picks for who will win. A couple formatting notes.
- I challenged myself to 10 words or less for any opinion.
- In each field, I ordered the nominees from who I think is most likely to least likely.
- I don't know what nominations are given out at the Creative Emmys (or whatever they call them) on 9/15, but I already wrote out these prediction and divvied them out and plan to post them in that order. Some of these my be posted after they are given out. If that happens, fuck it. I'm pretty sure I'm my harshest critic for this. The rest of you probably won't care at all.
With all that said, enjoy.

* I feel like I begin a lot of posts like that.

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
Homeland "Pilot" (Showtime)
Really well done pilot.
Downton Abbey "Episode Seven" (PBS)
Won for directing in a Mini-Series last year.
Breaking Bad "Face Off" (AMC)
Amazing end to the season.
Mad Men "The Other Woman" (AMC)
Nominated every year. Yet to win.
Boardwalk Empire "To the Lost" (HBO)
Won this last year. No Scorsese now though.

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
Modern Family "Baby on Board" (ABC)
Won last year. Don't be against Modern Family.
Louie "Duckling" (FX)
Hour long episode. They also seem to like Louis C.K.
Curb Your Enthusiasm "Palestinian Chicken" (HBO)
It's won this category before, I think.
Modern Family "Virgin Territory" (ABC)
If not one, then the other.
Girls "She Did" (HBO)
I don't see Girls winning anything this year. Maybe next.
New Girl "Pilot" (FOX)
Really? This got nominated for directing?

Outstanding Directing for a Miniseries, Movie, or Dramatic Special
Hatfields & McCoys (History)
Big ratings. Big potential to win.
Game Change (HBO)
I assume TV movie directing is more than Mini-Series.
Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia (PBS)
I love Steven Moffat, blindly, if needed.
Luther (BBC America)
Didn't win last year, probably won't now.
Hemingway & Gellhorn (HBO)
I've not heard good things.

Outstanding Directing for a Variety, Music, or Comedy Series
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
The most direction-heavy nominee.
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central)
It wins everything else.
The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)
It wins whatever The Daily Show doesn't.
Portlandia (IFC)
Be happy with the nomination.
Late Show with David Letterman (CBS)
There has to be a fifth nominee.

Outstanding Directing for a Variety, Music, or Comedy Special
65th Tony Awards (CBS)
Choreography counts as direction, right?
54th Grammy Awards (CBS)
Whitney Houston died. That has to count for something.
New York City Ballet George Balanchine's The Nutcracker (PBS)
Several performances > Single awards show.
Live at the Beacon Theater (FX)
I love Louis CK, but this is light on direction.
84th Academy Awards (ABC)
If you watched it, you wouldn't pick it either.

Outstanding Directing for Nonfiction Programming
Martin Scorsese for George Harrison: Living in the Material World (HBO)
Scorsese. I assume nothing else matters.
Joe Berlinger & Bruce Sinofsky for Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (HBO)
I've actually heard of this one.
Bertram van Munster for The Amazing Race (CBS)
Does winning for Reality Competion translate to winning here?
Robert B. Weide for American Masters (PBS)
I know nothing of this.
Craig Spirko for Project Runway (Lifetime)
Lifetime. Enough said.

Movie Reaction: The Campaign

Formula: (Man of the Year + The Ides of March) * Will Ferrell

[Note - Politics: I hate election season and find it to be polite institutionalized bullying when all is said and done. I find politicians and those involved to be just about the lowest form of humanity and the desire to wield that kind of control over people to be sickening. My favorite day is the Wednesday after the election. I don't like either or any side. To say I am disillusioned by politics 1) makes the unfair implication that I was ever transfixed by it and 2) is like saying that the gypsies were disappointed by the Nazi policies. I just wanted to get that out of the way because it colors my reaction to this movie greatly.]

Cast: Will Ferrell has a great deal of goodwill built up with me, mostly due to my immense love of Stranger Than Fiction, so I'm always ready to give something he does a chance. I'm not a huge fan of this style of comedy. Since Anchorman, they have followed the law of diminishing returns for laughs and quality. Ferrell plays the characters as well as the cast he puts around him. Sadly...I want to like Zach Galifianakis. In interviews he strikes me as a nice guy and pretty funny too. I don't like his screen persona though. Something about it always rubs me the wrong way. He seemed very outmatched by Ferrell whenever they're together which makes Ferrell then hard to swallow. The rest of the cast is a bunch of people I'm happy to see working, but no one has the material to really shine in this. 

Plot: Few things in this world are more ripe for jokes than an election. Had the entire movie kept the focus of wringing every joke out of the election season, this would be a solid movie. They didn't do that though. They decided to try and go for an optimistic statement about politics, which has no place in this movie. I'm also really tired of these plots where the only bad guys are the business men. Why is everyone else in the movie allowed to be merely inept, but the business men have to be pure and calculated evil? I'm not saying the they are normally moral contributors in an election. Every person involved in a real election are awful, awful, wretched, calculating, awful people. I'm probably over-bothered by this, but I hate when a movie paints a picture of the candidates as idealist characters, trying to do the right thing, while the rest of the world is pulling them down. It's bullshit. I'm sorry, but it really irritates me.

Elephant in the Room: Why did you see this if it's been out this long and you were pretty sure you wouldn't like it? Good question. I don't have a good answer. Maybe I was hoping it would be different. Maybe everything else out was that bad. Maybe I thought it would be just disappointing, not thematically infuriating. Maybe it was the next movie starting at the theater when I showed up. God, I can't wait for some better movies to come out.

To Sum Things Up:
I should've seen Paranorman.This movie did nothing but remind me of what is to come in the next 2 months and how much I hate this time of year every four years. I kind of want to go watch V for Vendetta now.

Verdict (?): Strongly Don't Recommend

Emmy Nominee Study

For my latest little study, I've decided to combine two of my favorite things: TV and numbers. I know, I know, this must be hard to believe. ME taking something subjective, like, say, the Emmys and trying to pull meaningful numbers from them. But, never you fear, I found something that I could waste countless hours on, sorting out data in the least efficient way possible, so that I could answer the most meaningless of all questions.
What is this study, you ask. As you probably gather from the name of this post, it's all about breaking down the nominees. The two ways I determined this could be done are looking at two things: Consistency and age, considering those are two things I could pretty easily calculate.
This all began with me asking myself what the discrepancy between men and women were in TV shows. My hypothesis going in was that the Actress categories were going to be substantially younger than the Actor categories. My thinking was that show business is quicker to throw away women than men once they stop being, simply, nice to look at.
I will say, the results were not what I expected. I decided to go back 20 years, looking at the comedy and drama nominees from 1993 to the present to see what I found.

Average age of a nominee from 1993-2012Lead Actress Comedy    40.61
Lead Actress Drama    43.13
Lead Actor Comedy    44.45
Sup Actor Comedy    45
Sup Actress Drama    45.09
Sup Actress Comedy    45.29
Lead Actor Drama    46.335
Sup Actor Drama    50.10
Guest Actress Drama    53.96
Guest Actor Comedy    54.47
Guest Actress Comedy    56.79
Guest Actor Drama    57.15
I've got to say, these results largely surprised me, but let's go over what didn't surprise me. The oldest fields by a lot were the guest acting categories. For years, I've joked (mostly to myself because it was apparently an inside joke in my own head) that the Guest Actress in a Drama category was the SVU Retired Actress Award. The winner several years running was some former Emmy or Oscar winner looking for one more statue to put on her mantle. As it turns out, that was the youngest of the guest acting categories. Still, it made sense that the average age would be that. The nominees every year are some familiar names that they dust off for a day's work and Emmy voters remember fondly enough to nominate.
In fact, it makes a lot of sense looking at the nominee breakdown. The grind of working on a TV show can be exactly that, a grind. In terms of total hours of work needed, except for Lead Actor in a Drama, the age breakdown works out from oldest to youngest going from Guest to Supporting to Lead. Lead roles go to the younger people it seems.
I was expecting it to move from Supporting roles to aging into becoming Leads and fading away into Guest roles. By nominations, this doesn't follow, but keep in mind most show have a larger supporting cast than lead roles. The Emmys seem to recognize solid role players who help prop up the leads over the younger, supporting characters that threaten to take over the show.
Also, the fact that the youngest average category is still over 40 means that most TV actors have to go through years of proving themselves before getting award recognition. Sure, a few outliers throw the numbers off some, but not as much as you'd think.

The other thing I wanted to challenge was the notion that once you've been nominated, the Emmys remember you, or alternately, multiple nominations are the rule, not the exception. This, largely, turned out to be true. Here's some charts I found interesting.

Actors and Actresses with multiple of any Emmy nomination (1993-2012)Actors    76.9%
Actresses    79.3%Actors and Actresses with multiple Comedy nominations (1993-2012)Actors    73.6%
Actresses    82.0%Actors and Actresses with multiple Drama nominations (1993-2012)
Actors    70.4%
Actresses    74.4%Actors and Actresses with multiple nomination in the same category (1993-2012)
Lead Actor Drama    83.8%
Lead Actress Drama    90.5%
Supporting Actor Drama    72.6%
Supporting Actress Drama    72.4%
Guest Actor Drama    43.0%
Guest Actress Drama    45.8%
Lead Actor Comedy    84.0%
Lead Actress Comedy    88.6%
Supporting Actor Comedy    89.5%
Supporting Actress Comedy    85.8%
Guest Actor Comedy    38.8%
Guest Actress Comedy    52.8%
I did a lot more calculations for 3, 4,5 or more nominations but they were largely without anomalies and well represented by the 2+ nominees numbers. As expected, the importance of a character to a show is majorly reflected here. Guest Actors are just that, guests, so repeat nominees are rare. Lead roles normally define a series, so they are not likely to change, thus they are the most consistent fields.
Some observations to be made from the following figures:
-Overall, men vs. women (76.9 vs. 79.3) are pretty even in terms of nominee consistency.
-Despite the growing number of strong female voices over the past few years, in comedy, there is still a rather large discrepancy in recognizing them in comedy. 73.6% men vs. 82.0% women means that fewer new voices are recognized and the Emmy voters just pick the names they are familiar with.
-It looks like the dramatic supporting roles lean less toward consistency than the comedy roles. This actually makes sense when you consider the number of single season arc characters that have been promoted to supporting roles over the past couple years, like last year's Supporting Actress (Drama) winner, Margo Martindale, or this year's Supporting Actor in a Drama nominee, Giancarlo Esposito. Comedy tends to pull from taking the familiar characters and mining that for laughs and Drama benefits from being fresh, new, and compelling.

Wow, this has gone on a little longer than I intended. Why did no one stop me? Oh yeah. Blog. That's right. Well, I hope any of this was interesting and not just an incomprehensible mess of numbers and observations. I guess the conclusion of this is that the numbers followed as I expected. The Emmys like to nominate the same people and this consistency results in fairly old ages to the nominees, although the older the actor, the less general importance to a series he/she has.

Movie Reaction: Lawless

Formula: The Untouchables - the urban environment

Cast: Shia LaBeouf has the most screen time of anyone, so I guess that makes him the lead. He's a pretty textbook character, but plays it as well as one could hope. Tom Hardy is a pretty eloquent guy. It's a shame he keeps picking roles like this one where he's the strong, silent type (or Bane, who's, well, you know). Jason Clarke is the third brother. I don't actually know who he is. The imdb page looks impressive enough and he plays a good, albeit underdeveloped drunk. I'm finally understanding why Jessica Chastain was the talk of the town last year. I would really like to see Mia Wasikowska in another major lead role again soon. Guy Pearce is good in this, I suppose. I've seen that character so many times before. When is a new model for a bad guy going to come along?

Plot: The one danger of a proper parody is that it really calls attention to the formula of a given genre. As a result, the great movies are still great, but the examples that are only good seem kind of stale. Having seen the Community episode "Contemporary America Poultry" hurt my ability to watch this movie. The rural setting for a Prohibition movie is a refreshing angle. Everything else was a little too familiar. There's a couple times when Shia LaBeouf starts doing narration to a montage when I started hearing it in Abed's voice. Killed the mood a little.

Elephant in the Room: I don't go to the movies to listen to Hillbilly speak. Agreed. It's gets a little annoying, and there's a couple times, especially with Tom Hardy when it's damn near unintelligible. It's not too bad most of the time though, and it's certainly a new perspective on for a familiar story.

To Sum Things Up:
I liked it. It's definitely one of the best releases in a while. I'm a fan of the gangster sub-genre though, so I'm not in unbiased judge. The movie exists in the middle ground where it's not quite Hollywood shoot 'em up and also lacks award season polish.

In Other Words: 5 years from now, this will be sold in a bundle with Public Enemies for $12.99 at Target. I'll consider buying that.


Verdict (?): Weakly Recommend