Emmy Predictions: Directing

It's that time again*. The Emmy Awards show is almost here. That means it's time for me to act like I'm some sort of expert and give my picks for who will win. A couple formatting notes.
- I challenged myself to 10 words or less for any opinion.
- In each field, I ordered the nominees from who I think is most likely to least likely.
- I don't know what nominations are given out at the Creative Emmys (or whatever they call them) on 9/15, but I already wrote out these prediction and divvied them out and plan to post them in that order. Some of these my be posted after they are given out. If that happens, fuck it. I'm pretty sure I'm my harshest critic for this. The rest of you probably won't care at all.
With all that said, enjoy.

* I feel like I begin a lot of posts like that.

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
Homeland "Pilot" (Showtime)
Really well done pilot.
Downton Abbey "Episode Seven" (PBS)
Won for directing in a Mini-Series last year.
Breaking Bad "Face Off" (AMC)
Amazing end to the season.
Mad Men "The Other Woman" (AMC)
Nominated every year. Yet to win.
Boardwalk Empire "To the Lost" (HBO)
Won this last year. No Scorsese now though.

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
Modern Family "Baby on Board" (ABC)
Won last year. Don't be against Modern Family.
Louie "Duckling" (FX)
Hour long episode. They also seem to like Louis C.K.
Curb Your Enthusiasm "Palestinian Chicken" (HBO)
It's won this category before, I think.
Modern Family "Virgin Territory" (ABC)
If not one, then the other.
Girls "She Did" (HBO)
I don't see Girls winning anything this year. Maybe next.
New Girl "Pilot" (FOX)
Really? This got nominated for directing?

Outstanding Directing for a Miniseries, Movie, or Dramatic Special
Hatfields & McCoys (History)
Big ratings. Big potential to win.
Game Change (HBO)
I assume TV movie directing is more than Mini-Series.
Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia (PBS)
I love Steven Moffat, blindly, if needed.
Luther (BBC America)
Didn't win last year, probably won't now.
Hemingway & Gellhorn (HBO)
I've not heard good things.

Outstanding Directing for a Variety, Music, or Comedy Series
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
The most direction-heavy nominee.
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central)
It wins everything else.
The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)
It wins whatever The Daily Show doesn't.
Portlandia (IFC)
Be happy with the nomination.
Late Show with David Letterman (CBS)
There has to be a fifth nominee.

Outstanding Directing for a Variety, Music, or Comedy Special
65th Tony Awards (CBS)
Choreography counts as direction, right?
54th Grammy Awards (CBS)
Whitney Houston died. That has to count for something.
New York City Ballet George Balanchine's The Nutcracker (PBS)
Several performances > Single awards show.
Live at the Beacon Theater (FX)
I love Louis CK, but this is light on direction.
84th Academy Awards (ABC)
If you watched it, you wouldn't pick it either.

Outstanding Directing for Nonfiction Programming
Martin Scorsese for George Harrison: Living in the Material World (HBO)
Scorsese. I assume nothing else matters.
Joe Berlinger & Bruce Sinofsky for Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (HBO)
I've actually heard of this one.
Bertram van Munster for The Amazing Race (CBS)
Does winning for Reality Competion translate to winning here?
Robert B. Weide for American Masters (PBS)
I know nothing of this.
Craig Spirko for Project Runway (Lifetime)
Lifetime. Enough said.