Emmy Predictions: Series

I won't bother explaining my format or anything. If you really can't figure that out. Check Part 1.

Emmy Predictions:
Part 1: Directing
Part 2: Writing
Part 3: Guest Acting
Part 4: Supporting Acting
Part 5: Lead Acting

Outstanding Drama Series
Mad Men (AMC)
Stiff competition. Until it loses, don't be against it.
Downton Abbey (PBS)
If anything dethrones Mad Men it's this.
Homeland (Showtime)
Stealth cindidate to win.
Breaking Bad (AMC)
Such a good season. Can't see it winning though.
Game of Thrones (HBO)
Great genre fare, not about to breakthrough yet.
Boardwalk Empire (HBO)
Fell is esteem since last year.

Outstanding Comedy Series
Modern Family (ABC)
Until it loses, don't bet against it.
The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
If anything unseats Modern Family it's this.
Girls (HBO)
A lot of HBO love could be a factor.
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Hasn't managed to win yet.
Veep (HBO)
Too much a vehicle for the lead.
30 Rock (NBC)
All downhill from here.
 

Outstanding Miniseries or TV Movie
Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia (PBS)
It could happen.
Hatfields & McCoys (History)
Massive ratings. It could translate.
Luther (BBC America)
Why isn't this Doctor Who?
American Horror Story (FX)
It's a series! Don't reward that!
Game Change (HBO)
Not a big year for HBO, I feel.
Hemingway & Gellhorn (HBO)
When did this even air?

Outstanding Variety, Music, or Comedy Series
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central)
Death, taxes, and Daily Show winning.
The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)
Could be time for little brother to step up.
Late Night with Jimmy Fallon (NBC)
From here on, it doesn't matter who I pick.
Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
Keeps getting nominated.
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Still takes too much criticism.
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)
This should be Portlandia.

Outstanding Variety, Music, or Comedy Special
Betty White's 90th Birthday: A Tribute To America's Golden Girl (NBC)
They love Betty White.
Mel Brooks and Dick Cavett Together Again (HBO)
I love Mel Brooks.
Kathy Griffin: Tired Hooker (Bravo)
Her time has passed.
Kennedy Center Honors (CBS)
Umm, maybe.
Tony Bennett: Duets II (Great Performances) (PBS)
Seriously, when is Live at the Beacon Theater.

Outstanding Reality Competition Series
The Amazing Race (CBS)
Upon cancellation, the category will be named after this show.
Top Chef (Bravo)
The only other winner.
So You Think You Can Dance (FOX)
Surprisingly well regarded show.
The Voice (NBC)
Could it do what American Idol never could? No.
Dancing with the Stars (ABC)
If it hasn't happened yet, it won't.
Project Runway (Lifetime)
Does Lifetime ever win anything.







Outstanding Reality Program
Mythbusters (Discovery Channel)
It could be the year, finally.
Jamie Oliver's Food Revolution (ABC)
Good title for a win.
Who Do You Think You Are? (NBC)
It seems like Emmy-bait.
Undercover Boss (CBS)
It's only gotten worse.
Shark Tank (ABC)
Ugh.
Antiques Roadshow (PBS)
It's like the retired uncle of this category.

Outstanding Children's Program
iCarly (Nickelodeon)
I don't know this category. Not with these choices.
Good Luck Charlie (Disney Channel)
My lack of knowledge works in it's favor.
Wizards of Waverly Place (Disney Channel)
This is still on?
Degrassi (TeenNick)
Been a while since I'd actually pick this to win.
Victorious (Nickelodeon)
Ironic that it won't win.

Emmy Predictions: Lead Acting

I won't bother explaining my format or anything. If you really can't figure that out. Check Part 1.

Emmy Predictions:
Part 1: Directing
Part 2: Writing
Part 3: Guest Acting
Part 4: Supporting Acting

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad "Crawl Space") (AMC)
Calling this a lock.
Damian Lewis (Homeland "Marine One") (Showtime)
Only if Homeland wins big.
Jon Hamm (Mad Men "The Other Woman") (AMC)
Cranston has his number, sadly.
Hugh Bonneville (Downton Abbey "Episode Seven") (PBS)
Downton Abbey love can't make room here.
Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire "Two Boats and a Lifeguard") (HBO)
Last year was his chance.
Michael C. Hall (Dexter "Nebraska") (Showtime)
Awful, awful episode. Horribly acted by a great actor.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Claire Danes (Homeland "The Vest") (Showtime)
Watch Homeland. How can she not win?
Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife "Parenting Made Easy") (CBS)
She does carry the show.
Elisabeth Moss (Mad Men "The Other Woman") (AMC)
Always solid, but not a stong year.
Glenn Close (Damages "I've Done Way Too Much for This Girl") (Audience Network)
You never know.
Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey "Episode Seven") (PBS)
Don't see Downton Abbey making room here either.
Kathy Bates (Harry's Law "Onward and Upward") (NBC)
Nope. Not even considering it.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory "The Werewolf Transformation") (CBS)
I suspect a big year for Big Bang.
Louis C.K. (Louie "Duckling") (FX)
I want to believe and it is a spectacular showcase.
Alec Baldwin (30 Rock "Live from Studio 6H") (NBC)
Never bet against him.
Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm "Palestinian Chicken") (HBO)
Lots of nominations, never a win.
Jon Cryer (Two and a Half Men "Frodo's Headshots") (CBS)
Moving up to the big leagues, not too quickly though.
Don Cheadle (House of Lies "Gods of Dangerous Financial Institutions") (Showtime)
Please, dear god no.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep "Tears") (HBO)
Meryl Streep of Comedy Emmys.
Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation "Win, Lose, or Draw") (NBC)
A boy can dream.
Melissa McCarthy (Mike & Molly "The Dress") (CBS)
She did win last year, after all.
Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie "Disneyland Sucks") (Showtime)
Former winner. Doubtful to win.
Tina Fey (30 Rock "The Tuxedo Begins") (NBC)
Former winner. Doubtful to win.
Lena Dunham (Girls "She Did") (HBO)
Not the time for the new girl.
Zooey Deschanel (New Girl "Bad in Bed") (FOX)
Not the time for the New Girl.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or a Movie
Kevin Costner (Hatfields & McCoys) (History)
Biggest name on a ratings smash.
Benedict Cumberbatch (Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia) (PBS)
I mean, it's called Sherlock.
Idris Elba (Luther) (BBC America)
I like him.
Bill Paxton (Hatfields & McCoys) (History)
2nd biggest name on a ratings smash.
Woody Harrelson (Game Change) (HBO)
Nope.
Clive Owen (Hemingway & Gellhorn) (HBO)
Nope.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or a Movie
Julianne Moore (Game Change) (HBO)
Great transformation.
Emma Thompson (The Song of Lunch) (PBS)
She's Emma "fucking" Thompson
Nicole Kidman (Hemingway & Gellhorn) (HBO)
Always give the Oscar winner a chance.
Ashley Judd (Missing) (ABC)
Nominated solely for her name.
Connie Britton (American Horror Story) (FX)
She's not beating those names.

Emmy Predictions: Supporting Acting

I won't bother explaining my format or anything. If you really can't figure that out. Check Part 1.

Emmy Predictions:
Part 1: Directing
Part 2: Writing
Part 3: Guest Acting

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad "End Times") (AMC)
Two reigning winners. Performances on different levels though.
Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones "Blackwater") (HBO)
The other reigning winner.
Jim Carter (Downton Abbey "Episode Two") (PBS)
There's a lot of Downton Abbey love.
Brendan Coyle (Downton Abbey "Episode Seven") (PBS)
A LOT of Downton Abbey love.
Jared Harris (Mad Men "Commissions and Fees") (AMC)
Will Mad Men ever win for acting?
Giancarlo Esposito (Breaking Bad "Hermanos") (AMC)
Aaron Paul is getting the Breaking Bad win here.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey "Episode One") (PBS)
Academy Award winning dame on a hot show. 
Christina Hendricks (Mad Men "The Other Woman") (AMC)
She has to win eventually.
Christine Baranski (The Good Wife "Alienation of Affection") (CBS)
The Emmys do like Christine Baranski.
Joanne Froggatt (Downton Abbey "Episode Seven") (PBS)
Probably not the winner coming out of Downton Abbey.
Archie Panjabi (The Good Wife "The Dream Team") (CBS)
Previous winner. Doubt she's a repeat winner.
Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad "Cornered") (AMC)
Happy to even see her nominated.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Ed O'Neill (Modern Family "Baby on Board") (ABC)
They're working through the cast. Bundys go first.
Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family "Leap Day") (ABC)
I don't like submission episode. Modern Family will win though.
Bill Hader (Saturday Night Live "Host: Katy Perry") (NBC)
Stefan.
Max Greenfield (New Girl "Control") (FOX)
I don't see New Girl as an Emmy winner.
Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family "Treehouse") (ABC)
He had his win. He's not David Hyde Pierce.
Ty Burrell (Modern Family "Lifetime Supply") (ABC)
He had his win. He's not John Larroquette.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Mayim Bialik (The Big Bang Theory "The Shiny Trinket Maneuver") (CBS)
They love boy Sheldon, why not girl Sheldon?
Sofía Vergara (Modern Family "Tableau Vivant") (ABC)
Eventually she will win.
Kathryn Joosten (Desperate Housewives "Finishing the Hat") (ABC)
She died. Could be a wild card.
Kristen Wiig (Saturday Night Live "Host: Mick Jagger") (NBC)
Still riding that Bridesmaids wave.
Julie Bowen (Modern Family "Go Bullfrogs!") (ABC)
She has her win. She's not Megan Mullally.
Merritt Wever (Nurse Jackie "One-Armed Jacks") (Showtime)
Be happy you're nominated.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or a Movie
Martin Freeman (Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia) (PBS)
Uh, no idea.
Ed Harris (Game Change) (HBO)
He's famous. Reason enough.
David Strathairn (Hemingway & Gellhorn) (HBO)
Might as well.
Denis O'Hare (American Horror Story) (FX)
It's a fucking series. I hope it wins nothing.
Tom Berenger (Hatfields & McCoys) (History)
I think the big names get the win.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or a Movie
Jessica Lange (American Horror Story) (FX)
I heard she was good in this.
Sarah Paulson (Game Change) (HBO)
It could happen.
Mare Winningham (Hatfields & McCoys) (History)
Big ratings could translate.
Frances Conroy (American Horror Story) (FX)
Never won for Six Feet Under.
Judy Davis (Page Eight) (PBS)
Never heard of it or her.

Movie Reaction: ParaNorman

Formula: Ghost Town + The Gooinies

[Voice] Cast: I didn't know any of the voices going in, so I had fun figuring that out as I went along. They found pretty good voice matches for most of the characters. My personal favorite touch was, I believe Jeff Garlin and Jon Goodman play brothers. I'd believe that in real life.

Plot: I was very reminded of when I saw Hugo when I watched this. That's high praise, mind you. The first half of the movie was a pretty standard kid's movie. Then, in the second act, it kicked it up a gear, to the point that I wondered if this was even meant for kids at all. Parts are so harrowing I wonder how a kid would even respond to it and the movie's treatment of death is pretty intense, for any age. It really impressed me.

Animation: I'm not a huge fan of this style overall, but there are some moments when this movie looks visually stunning. I can't even imagine what this would be like in 3D. It certainly didn't need it. By the end, I even grew to kind of like the look.

Elephant in the Room: If you waited this long to see it, you obviously weren't all that excited to see it. I really wasn't. I read a surprisingly positive review of this by a reviewer I trust, but even still, it took several weeks of weak releases and a lot of slow nights for me to see it. So glad I did though.

To Sum Things Up:
I doubt I can convince anyone of this, but I recommend this movie for anyone. It is surprisingly enjoyable. The plot deals with pretty heavy issues and treats them with a lot of delicacy. There's even a number of laugh out loud moments too. This is the kind of movie I always hope to stumble upon by doing this weekly movie thing.

Verdict (?): Strongly Recommend

Emmy Predictions: Writing

I won't bother explaining my format or anything. If you really can't figure that out. Check Part 1.

Emmy Predictions:
Part 1: Directing


Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
Mad Men "Far Away Places" (AMC)
Mad Men will win. Accept this. Best written of these.
Mad Men "Commissions and Fees" (AMC)
My second favorite Mad Men nominee.
Mad Men "The Other Woman" (AMC)
Mad Men will win. Didn't care for this episode though.
Homeland "Pilot" (Showtime)
Good pilot. Not amazing writing however.
Downton Abbey "Episode Seven" (PBS)
I'm sure it's but, but I haven't seen it.

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
Parks and Recreation "The Debate" (NBC)
Great episode. Please let P&R win.
Girls "Pilot" (HBO)
If Girls sneaks in a win, it's here.
Parks and Recreation "Win, Lose, or Draw" (NBC)
Two nominations is a good sign for P&R.
Louie "Pregnant" (FX)
Love this show, disliked this episode.
Community "Remedial Chaos Theory" (NBC)
Still stunned it got nominated. Not dreaming too big.

Outstanding Writing for a Miniseries, Movie, or Dramatic Special
Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia (PBS)
I love Steve Moffat. This blinds me. I know it.
Hatfields & McCoys (History)
Big rating. Big nominations. Always a possibility.
Luther (BBC America)
Nominated last year (maybe). Anyone's guess.
Game Change (HBO)
Generic HBO movie nomination.
The Hour (BBC America)
Only major nomination. Not good odds.

Outstanding Writing for a Variety, Music, or Comedy Program
The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)
Trades off with Daily Show every year.
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central)
Won last year.
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
It has more momentum than most years.
Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
Yearly nomination. Never wins.
Portlandia (IFC)
Should be happy to be nominated.

Outstanding Writing for a Variety, Music, or Comedy Special
Live at the Beacon Theater (FX)
So many CK nominations have to pay off somewhere.
Betty White's 90th Birthday: A Tribute To America's Golden Girl (NBC)
Emmys love Betty White.
65th Annual Tony Awards (CBS)
Still the best of the award shows.
The Kennedy Center Honors (CBS)
Didn't watch it.
84th Annual Academy Awards (ABC)
If you watched it, you wouldn't pick it either.

Outstanding Writing for Nonfiction Programming
Anthony Bourdain: No Reservations (Travel Channel)
I expect PBS to cancel itself out.
Prohibition (PBS)
Sexiest title.
American Masters (PBS)
2nd sexiest title.
American Experience: Clinton (PBS)
3rd sxiest title.
Sesame Street: Growing Hope Against Hunger (PBS)
Not a sexy title.

Emmy Predictions: Guest Acting

I won't bother explaining my format or anything. If you really can't figure that out. Check Part 1.

Emmy Predictions:
Part 1: Directing
Part 2: Writing

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series
Michael J. Fox (The Good Wife "Parenting Made Easy") (CBS)
I see a two win night for Fox.
Ben Feldman (Mad Men "Dark Shadows") (AMC)
Logged major minutes for a Guest actor.
Mark Margolis (Breaking Bad "Face Off") (AMC)
Does so much with a look and a bell.
Dylan Baker (The Good Wife "Marthas and Caitlins") (CBS)
No reason.
Jeremy Davies (Justified "Coalition") (FX)
Justified has fallen from favor too much.
Jason Ritter (Parenthood "Politics") (NBC)
They know Parenthood exists!?

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series
Loretta Devine (Grey's Anatomy "If Only You Were Lonely") (ABC)
Do they allow consecutive wins?
Julia Ormond (Mad Men "The Phantom") (AMC)
Eventually, Mad Men has to win for acting.
Martha Plimpton (The Good Wife "The Dream Team") (CBS)
Lead Actress nomination last year...in comedy.
Joan Cusack (Shameless "Can I Have a Mother") (Showtime)
To recognize her and not Emmy Rossum: Criminal.
Jean Smart (Harry's Law "The Rematch") (NBC)
The battle of who could care less.
Uma Thurman (Smash "Tech") (NBC)
The battle of who could care less.

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
Michael J. Fox (Curb Your Enthusiasm "Larry vs. Michael J. Fox") (HBO)
I see a two win night for Fox.
Jon Hamm (30 Rock "Live from Studio 6H") (NBC)
Not winning for Mad Men. Could be a consolation prize.
Greg Kinnear (Modern Family "Me? Jealous?") (ABC)
Only if Modern Family dominates the night again.
Jimmy Fallon (Saturday Night Live "Host: Jimmy Fallon") (NBC)
They love old cast members.
Will Arnett (30 Rock "Idiots Are People Three!") (NBC)
He certainly get nominated enough here.
Bobby Cannavale (Nurse Jackie "Disneyland Sucks") (Showtime)
Who?

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series
Melissa McCarthy (Saturday Night Live "Host: Melissa McCarthy") (NBC)
Still riding that Bridesmaids wave.
Maya Rudolph (Saturday Night Live "Host: Maya Rudolph") (NBC)
The love old cast members.
Dot-Marie Jones (Glee "Choke") (FOX)
If not SNL, certainly Glee.
Elizabeth Banks (30 Rock "The Return of Avery Jessup") (NBC)
The character wears on me too much.
Margaret Cho (30 Rock "The Return of Avery Jessup") (NBC)
How did she get nominated? Not a complaint though.
Kathy Bates (Two and a Half Men "Why We Gave Up Women") (CBS)
Please no.

Outstanding Host for a Reality or Reality-Competition Program
Betty White for Betty White's Off Their Rockers (NBC)
The Katharine Hepburn of the Emmys.
Cat Deeley for So You Think You Can Dance (FOX)
I keep hearing how good she is.
Phil Keoghan for The Amazing Race (CBS)
The show keeps winning. Maybe to translates.
Ryan Seacrest for American Idol (FOX)
Too much of a punchline.
Tom Bergeron for Dancing with the Stars (ABC)
No, just no.

Emmy Predictions: Directing

It's that time again*. The Emmy Awards show is almost here. That means it's time for me to act like I'm some sort of expert and give my picks for who will win. A couple formatting notes.
- I challenged myself to 10 words or less for any opinion.
- In each field, I ordered the nominees from who I think is most likely to least likely.
- I don't know what nominations are given out at the Creative Emmys (or whatever they call them) on 9/15, but I already wrote out these prediction and divvied them out and plan to post them in that order. Some of these my be posted after they are given out. If that happens, fuck it. I'm pretty sure I'm my harshest critic for this. The rest of you probably won't care at all.
With all that said, enjoy.

* I feel like I begin a lot of posts like that.

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
Homeland "Pilot" (Showtime)
Really well done pilot.
Downton Abbey "Episode Seven" (PBS)
Won for directing in a Mini-Series last year.
Breaking Bad "Face Off" (AMC)
Amazing end to the season.
Mad Men "The Other Woman" (AMC)
Nominated every year. Yet to win.
Boardwalk Empire "To the Lost" (HBO)
Won this last year. No Scorsese now though.

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
Modern Family "Baby on Board" (ABC)
Won last year. Don't be against Modern Family.
Louie "Duckling" (FX)
Hour long episode. They also seem to like Louis C.K.
Curb Your Enthusiasm "Palestinian Chicken" (HBO)
It's won this category before, I think.
Modern Family "Virgin Territory" (ABC)
If not one, then the other.
Girls "She Did" (HBO)
I don't see Girls winning anything this year. Maybe next.
New Girl "Pilot" (FOX)
Really? This got nominated for directing?

Outstanding Directing for a Miniseries, Movie, or Dramatic Special
Hatfields & McCoys (History)
Big ratings. Big potential to win.
Game Change (HBO)
I assume TV movie directing is more than Mini-Series.
Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia (PBS)
I love Steven Moffat, blindly, if needed.
Luther (BBC America)
Didn't win last year, probably won't now.
Hemingway & Gellhorn (HBO)
I've not heard good things.

Outstanding Directing for a Variety, Music, or Comedy Series
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
The most direction-heavy nominee.
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central)
It wins everything else.
The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)
It wins whatever The Daily Show doesn't.
Portlandia (IFC)
Be happy with the nomination.
Late Show with David Letterman (CBS)
There has to be a fifth nominee.

Outstanding Directing for a Variety, Music, or Comedy Special
65th Tony Awards (CBS)
Choreography counts as direction, right?
54th Grammy Awards (CBS)
Whitney Houston died. That has to count for something.
New York City Ballet George Balanchine's The Nutcracker (PBS)
Several performances > Single awards show.
Live at the Beacon Theater (FX)
I love Louis CK, but this is light on direction.
84th Academy Awards (ABC)
If you watched it, you wouldn't pick it either.

Outstanding Directing for Nonfiction Programming
Martin Scorsese for George Harrison: Living in the Material World (HBO)
Scorsese. I assume nothing else matters.
Joe Berlinger & Bruce Sinofsky for Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (HBO)
I've actually heard of this one.
Bertram van Munster for The Amazing Race (CBS)
Does winning for Reality Competion translate to winning here?
Robert B. Weide for American Masters (PBS)
I know nothing of this.
Craig Spirko for Project Runway (Lifetime)
Lifetime. Enough said.

Movie Reaction: The Campaign

Formula: (Man of the Year + The Ides of March) * Will Ferrell

[Note - Politics: I hate election season and find it to be polite institutionalized bullying when all is said and done. I find politicians and those involved to be just about the lowest form of humanity and the desire to wield that kind of control over people to be sickening. My favorite day is the Wednesday after the election. I don't like either or any side. To say I am disillusioned by politics 1) makes the unfair implication that I was ever transfixed by it and 2) is like saying that the gypsies were disappointed by the Nazi policies. I just wanted to get that out of the way because it colors my reaction to this movie greatly.]

Cast: Will Ferrell has a great deal of goodwill built up with me, mostly due to my immense love of Stranger Than Fiction, so I'm always ready to give something he does a chance. I'm not a huge fan of this style of comedy. Since Anchorman, they have followed the law of diminishing returns for laughs and quality. Ferrell plays the characters as well as the cast he puts around him. Sadly...I want to like Zach Galifianakis. In interviews he strikes me as a nice guy and pretty funny too. I don't like his screen persona though. Something about it always rubs me the wrong way. He seemed very outmatched by Ferrell whenever they're together which makes Ferrell then hard to swallow. The rest of the cast is a bunch of people I'm happy to see working, but no one has the material to really shine in this. 

Plot: Few things in this world are more ripe for jokes than an election. Had the entire movie kept the focus of wringing every joke out of the election season, this would be a solid movie. They didn't do that though. They decided to try and go for an optimistic statement about politics, which has no place in this movie. I'm also really tired of these plots where the only bad guys are the business men. Why is everyone else in the movie allowed to be merely inept, but the business men have to be pure and calculated evil? I'm not saying the they are normally moral contributors in an election. Every person involved in a real election are awful, awful, wretched, calculating, awful people. I'm probably over-bothered by this, but I hate when a movie paints a picture of the candidates as idealist characters, trying to do the right thing, while the rest of the world is pulling them down. It's bullshit. I'm sorry, but it really irritates me.

Elephant in the Room: Why did you see this if it's been out this long and you were pretty sure you wouldn't like it? Good question. I don't have a good answer. Maybe I was hoping it would be different. Maybe everything else out was that bad. Maybe I thought it would be just disappointing, not thematically infuriating. Maybe it was the next movie starting at the theater when I showed up. God, I can't wait for some better movies to come out.

To Sum Things Up:
I should've seen Paranorman.This movie did nothing but remind me of what is to come in the next 2 months and how much I hate this time of year every four years. I kind of want to go watch V for Vendetta now.

Verdict (?): Strongly Don't Recommend

Emmy Nominee Study

For my latest little study, I've decided to combine two of my favorite things: TV and numbers. I know, I know, this must be hard to believe. ME taking something subjective, like, say, the Emmys and trying to pull meaningful numbers from them. But, never you fear, I found something that I could waste countless hours on, sorting out data in the least efficient way possible, so that I could answer the most meaningless of all questions.
What is this study, you ask. As you probably gather from the name of this post, it's all about breaking down the nominees. The two ways I determined this could be done are looking at two things: Consistency and age, considering those are two things I could pretty easily calculate.
This all began with me asking myself what the discrepancy between men and women were in TV shows. My hypothesis going in was that the Actress categories were going to be substantially younger than the Actor categories. My thinking was that show business is quicker to throw away women than men once they stop being, simply, nice to look at.
I will say, the results were not what I expected. I decided to go back 20 years, looking at the comedy and drama nominees from 1993 to the present to see what I found.

Average age of a nominee from 1993-2012Lead Actress Comedy    40.61
Lead Actress Drama    43.13
Lead Actor Comedy    44.45
Sup Actor Comedy    45
Sup Actress Drama    45.09
Sup Actress Comedy    45.29
Lead Actor Drama    46.335
Sup Actor Drama    50.10
Guest Actress Drama    53.96
Guest Actor Comedy    54.47
Guest Actress Comedy    56.79
Guest Actor Drama    57.15
I've got to say, these results largely surprised me, but let's go over what didn't surprise me. The oldest fields by a lot were the guest acting categories. For years, I've joked (mostly to myself because it was apparently an inside joke in my own head) that the Guest Actress in a Drama category was the SVU Retired Actress Award. The winner several years running was some former Emmy or Oscar winner looking for one more statue to put on her mantle. As it turns out, that was the youngest of the guest acting categories. Still, it made sense that the average age would be that. The nominees every year are some familiar names that they dust off for a day's work and Emmy voters remember fondly enough to nominate.
In fact, it makes a lot of sense looking at the nominee breakdown. The grind of working on a TV show can be exactly that, a grind. In terms of total hours of work needed, except for Lead Actor in a Drama, the age breakdown works out from oldest to youngest going from Guest to Supporting to Lead. Lead roles go to the younger people it seems.
I was expecting it to move from Supporting roles to aging into becoming Leads and fading away into Guest roles. By nominations, this doesn't follow, but keep in mind most show have a larger supporting cast than lead roles. The Emmys seem to recognize solid role players who help prop up the leads over the younger, supporting characters that threaten to take over the show.
Also, the fact that the youngest average category is still over 40 means that most TV actors have to go through years of proving themselves before getting award recognition. Sure, a few outliers throw the numbers off some, but not as much as you'd think.

The other thing I wanted to challenge was the notion that once you've been nominated, the Emmys remember you, or alternately, multiple nominations are the rule, not the exception. This, largely, turned out to be true. Here's some charts I found interesting.

Actors and Actresses with multiple of any Emmy nomination (1993-2012)Actors    76.9%
Actresses    79.3%Actors and Actresses with multiple Comedy nominations (1993-2012)Actors    73.6%
Actresses    82.0%Actors and Actresses with multiple Drama nominations (1993-2012)
Actors    70.4%
Actresses    74.4%Actors and Actresses with multiple nomination in the same category (1993-2012)
Lead Actor Drama    83.8%
Lead Actress Drama    90.5%
Supporting Actor Drama    72.6%
Supporting Actress Drama    72.4%
Guest Actor Drama    43.0%
Guest Actress Drama    45.8%
Lead Actor Comedy    84.0%
Lead Actress Comedy    88.6%
Supporting Actor Comedy    89.5%
Supporting Actress Comedy    85.8%
Guest Actor Comedy    38.8%
Guest Actress Comedy    52.8%
I did a lot more calculations for 3, 4,5 or more nominations but they were largely without anomalies and well represented by the 2+ nominees numbers. As expected, the importance of a character to a show is majorly reflected here. Guest Actors are just that, guests, so repeat nominees are rare. Lead roles normally define a series, so they are not likely to change, thus they are the most consistent fields.
Some observations to be made from the following figures:
-Overall, men vs. women (76.9 vs. 79.3) are pretty even in terms of nominee consistency.
-Despite the growing number of strong female voices over the past few years, in comedy, there is still a rather large discrepancy in recognizing them in comedy. 73.6% men vs. 82.0% women means that fewer new voices are recognized and the Emmy voters just pick the names they are familiar with.
-It looks like the dramatic supporting roles lean less toward consistency than the comedy roles. This actually makes sense when you consider the number of single season arc characters that have been promoted to supporting roles over the past couple years, like last year's Supporting Actress (Drama) winner, Margo Martindale, or this year's Supporting Actor in a Drama nominee, Giancarlo Esposito. Comedy tends to pull from taking the familiar characters and mining that for laughs and Drama benefits from being fresh, new, and compelling.

Wow, this has gone on a little longer than I intended. Why did no one stop me? Oh yeah. Blog. That's right. Well, I hope any of this was interesting and not just an incomprehensible mess of numbers and observations. I guess the conclusion of this is that the numbers followed as I expected. The Emmys like to nominate the same people and this consistency results in fairly old ages to the nominees, although the older the actor, the less general importance to a series he/she has.

Movie Reaction: Lawless

Formula: The Untouchables - the urban environment

Cast: Shia LaBeouf has the most screen time of anyone, so I guess that makes him the lead. He's a pretty textbook character, but plays it as well as one could hope. Tom Hardy is a pretty eloquent guy. It's a shame he keeps picking roles like this one where he's the strong, silent type (or Bane, who's, well, you know). Jason Clarke is the third brother. I don't actually know who he is. The imdb page looks impressive enough and he plays a good, albeit underdeveloped drunk. I'm finally understanding why Jessica Chastain was the talk of the town last year. I would really like to see Mia Wasikowska in another major lead role again soon. Guy Pearce is good in this, I suppose. I've seen that character so many times before. When is a new model for a bad guy going to come along?

Plot: The one danger of a proper parody is that it really calls attention to the formula of a given genre. As a result, the great movies are still great, but the examples that are only good seem kind of stale. Having seen the Community episode "Contemporary America Poultry" hurt my ability to watch this movie. The rural setting for a Prohibition movie is a refreshing angle. Everything else was a little too familiar. There's a couple times when Shia LaBeouf starts doing narration to a montage when I started hearing it in Abed's voice. Killed the mood a little.

Elephant in the Room: I don't go to the movies to listen to Hillbilly speak. Agreed. It's gets a little annoying, and there's a couple times, especially with Tom Hardy when it's damn near unintelligible. It's not too bad most of the time though, and it's certainly a new perspective on for a familiar story.

To Sum Things Up:
I liked it. It's definitely one of the best releases in a while. I'm a fan of the gangster sub-genre though, so I'm not in unbiased judge. The movie exists in the middle ground where it's not quite Hollywood shoot 'em up and also lacks award season polish.

In Other Words: 5 years from now, this will be sold in a bundle with Public Enemies for $12.99 at Target. I'll consider buying that.


Verdict (?): Weakly Recommend