Believe it or not, I spend just as much time following basketball as I do movies. I don't have quite as much to say though, so I limited things to a handful of posts in November. Today it's my picks for Top 25 along with a couple sleepers.
2019-2020:
Note: The team ranks I reference are Kenpom unless said otherwise. The Recruiting rankings are all from Rivals. These picks represent how I think they will end up for the year, not necessarily how I expect them to be on 11/9.
1. Gonzaga
It's strange that the Bulldogs are nearly the universal #1 team. Because, they did lose three players to the pros and bring back only about half their minutes, points, rebounds, assists, and steals from last season. A #1 preseason ranking can happen when you bring back a front court with preseason National Player of the Year Drew Timmie (C) and #1 recruit in the country Chet Holmgren (C). It's hard to see them as anything by dominant down low. It could get a little congested down there, but the guards should help with that. Andrew Nembhard is back in the back court. We saw last year that he can play from either guard position as needed, so freshman PG Nolan Hickman (#23 per Rivals) should have time to round into form. Iowa St. transfer Rasir Bolton (G), who averaged >30 mpg for the cyclones last season can also fill a lot of holes.
In addition to all that, the Zags have a loaded bench of former top 100 recruits waiting to break out. Every spot on the floor has both experience and youthful potential, so it's hard to find an area where this team struggles. I have every reason to expect them to compete for the title yet again.
2. Kansas
You'll hear me repeat this a lot. Don't pay too much attention to Kansas finishing outside the top 25 last season. The COVID summer of 2020 really fucked up a lot of the bigger programs that rely on that time for development to counteract the talent turnover. Kansas bring back at least 70% of their production last season, including almost 80% of their scoring. That includes potential NBA player Ochai Agbaji (G) and B12 Most Improved Player David McCormack (F). Jalen Wilson (F) is back after a surprise Freshman season to prove how much upside he really has. The biggest problem of last year's roster was that, for all his defensive prowess, Marcus Garrett wasn't a natural point guard. That problem should be very solved with Arizona State PG Remy Martin coming in. He's a high scorer with All-Conference honors in the Pac-12 the last couple years. He may not be a perfect fit, but he's an improvement. Then there's super Senior Jalen Coleman-Lands landing in Kansas to bolster the bench. The recruiting class isn't spectacular, but few coaches develop players over seasons better than Bill Self. Expect guys like Christian Braun (G), Dejuan Harris (G), and Mitch Lightfoot (F) to continue their development. As always, Kansas enters the season as one of the most formidible college teams out there.
3. Texas
It's hard not to get excited for the Longhorns this season. They hired Chris Beard who has demonstrated repeatedly that he's a great coach who can turn around rosters fast. Even though ~60% of last year's production is gone, expect Texas to dominate right away. They have no fewer than 6 transfers who would start at most major programs in addition to bringing back two Senior All-Conference guards in Andrew Jones and Courtney Ramsey. Marcus Carr (G) from Minnesota is one of the best transfers in the country. Timmy Allen (F) was a first-team All-Conference player at Utah. So was Tre Mitchell (C) at UMass. They claimed rebuild project Devin Askew (PG) who fled Kentucky and could turn into yet another player to flourish after leaving there. Dylan Disu (F - Vanderbilt) and Christian Bishop (F - Creighton) too. Oh, and top 40 Freshman forward Jaylon Tyson. My only concern is that if there isn't enough playing time to go around for everyone, there could be some discontent or mid-season transfers. As is, there's no team more injury-proof than Texas. I had to talk myself out of calling them the overall #1 team.
Side Rant: Let me take a moment to talk about the "Final Four Halo". That's when a team makes a Final Four, then, despite roster turnover, they still get preseason buzz. Largely, it's a false indicator. I looked back at the last five seasons with NCAA tournaments to gauge how this goes. Most teams are good teams that always reload or experience little turnover. UNC was top ten in 2017, brought back most of their roster and were top 10 again in 2018. Not much to learn for that. Instead, I'll pick a few of the more obvious Halo teams.
- 2019 Virginia. Finished #1 and won the championship. 4 starters then left for the pros. Tony Bennett had little coming back. Pre-season 2019-20, the Halo put him #11 in the AP Poll. The team finished 42nd on KenPom.
- 2018 Villanova. Also finished #1 on Kenpom and won the championship. There was a max exodus to the NBA. Jay Wright rebuilt the roster with as many good recruits as he could. Preseason 2018-19, the Wildcats were #9. It turns out, the team wasn't quite so reloaded and finished 30th on Kenpom.
- 2016 Syracuse. They had a miracle run to a Final Four as a 10 seed and finished the season 27th on Kenpom. They kept a lot of the team in tact except for Tyler Lydon leaving for the NBA. The Halo assumed ascendency since they made it to the Final Four, and preseason 2016-17, they were 19th. It turns out, the Final Four run was smoke and mirrors. They finished 55th in 2017.
- 2015 Wisconsin. Finished #2 on Kenpom and made it to the championship game. That team was humming. Then they lost Sam Dekker and Frank Kominsky, by far their two most important players, to the pros. Because Wisconsin was coming off two excellent years with that core, preseason the next year, the Halo assumed the good times would keep on rollng and they were 17th. They actually finished that season 38th on Kenpom.
To be fair, don't go too far in the opposite direction either. Sometimes teams are who they say they are in the tournament. Michigan State had a Final Four run in 2015 as a 7 seed. Despite the low seed, they actually finished the season 15th in Kenpom. They brought back the key pieces to that team, were preseason 13th the next year, and finished 5th. That's all a long winded way of saying that we can believe in UCLA this year. That's not a false Halo. However, be wary of Houston and Baylor.
4. UCLA
As my side rant above explains, I'm not worried about the Bruins being inflated by a Final Four run. Sure, they were in the 40s on Kenpom before they began that Final Four run that moved them up to 13th, but Ken Pomeroy freely admitted last year that his model was thirsty to intraconference competition. In other words, the models weren't as useful last season and NCAA tournament results mattered more than ever.
What matters is that 90% of last year's production is back. Technically even more when you consider that much of that 10% came from Chris Smith who left the team 8 games into the season. That means Tyger Campbell, Jaime Jaquez, and Johnny Juzang, all 30+ MPG All-Conference guards, are back in the backcourt. Big man Cody Riley (F) is back too. They bring in Rutgers big man Myles Johnson (C), a Big 10 All-Defensive player to man the middle, filling the big hole in last year's lineup. There's also the #12 Freshman Peyton Watson (F) joining the squad. They've got plenty of bench depth too. I was someone who didn't agree with the Mick Cronin hiring when it happened. That's because I thought that while he's a great Xs and Os coach, he'd have a hard time convincing recruits to play his system. Well, he's getting the recruits after all. They are used to it now. There's no reason to think he can't keep it up with largely the same roster.
5. Kentucky
Yes, I'm a UK fan. I swear, I looked for ways to put them lower than this. Whenever I sorted, they kept ending up this high though. Some of that is simply because I'm more familiar with this roster. Let me explain myself though. The Wildcats were horrible last year, finishing 49th on Kenpom, in a season that felt more like 149th. It makes sense they were bad though. That was a really young team. Coach Cal lost more guys the year before than he expected. Losing the summer in 2020 hurt no team more than UK. That's when Cal normally gets his Freshmen ready and familiar. Instead, they began the season with greater roster turnover than ever and less time to develop. Do you think it's a coincidence that the teams who started the strongest last year almost all had tons of experience?
Frankly, I'm wiping last year's results completely off. Very little can be learned from it. So how does this year look? It's nice to bring in two top 20 Freshmen in Ty Ty Washington (PG, #14 per Rivals) and Daimion Collins (F, #18). Washington should start, but neither will be relied on right away. Cal hit the transfer market hard, enrolling 4 impact guys. There's All Conference PG Sahvir Wheeler from Georgia. He led the SEC in assists last year. 5th year All Conference guard Kellan Grady (Davidson) brings immediate playmaking and scoring. Iowa transfer C.J. Fredrick (G) is a deadly outside shooter. Oscar Tshiebwe (F) was a beast at West Virginia before he had a fallout there. A lineup with just those transfers and Freshmen would already be more complete than last year's squad. The returnees for the Wildcats are a lot of the good pieces from last year's roster. Davion Mintz (G) brings leadership and shooting. Keion Brooks (F) could finally break out now that he's not battling injuries and conditioning. Dontae Allen (G), Jacob Toppin (F), and Lance Ware (F) all showed flashes of potential last year. Any of them could easily earn a starting job. To recap, UK has experience, shooting, playmaking, depth, and size. They won't rely on the Freshmen to immediately produce but could reap the benefits if they do. Calipari has plenty of experience getting a loaded teams to gel over a season. I think last season scared way to many people. This team looks like a 2 or 3 seed that no one will want to play come March.
6. Purdue
I go into most seasons doubting Purdue and they normally make me look foolish, so I'm buying in this year. They bring back 90% of last year's production. They lose no starters. They finished last season 25th. Center Trevion Williams made the All-Conference 1st team last year. The pair of All-Freshman players Jaden Ivey (G) and Zach Edey (C) are ready to make an impact. They don't have the sexiest roster. Just a pair of top 60 Freshman coming in. The idea seems to be that a top 25 squad bringing everyone back can leap even more. The roster is complete. They have some talent. The Big Ten should be less competative this year, so it'll be easier for the Boilermakers to make a name for themselves. It feels like someone is going to pass them but I don't know who.
7. Villanova
Only two players are gone from last year's 12th ranked squad but they were two key players. Co-Big East Player of the Year Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (F) left for the NBA. Cole Swider (F) transferred. The rest of the team is back. About 30% of last year's production came from those two though and they were the only two rotation big men on the team. The Wildcats do bring back one of the best back courts in the country with Co-Big East Player of the Year Collin Gillespie (PG), Justin Moore (G), Caleb Daniels (G), and Bryan Antoine (G). Jermain Samuels and Brandon Slater are both Forwards but they lean more on the SF side. If Nova can find a way to play small effectively (which a Jay Wright team normally can) they should be a force. They need someone to man the middle though. That will decide their season. Perhaps Sophomore Eric Dixon or redshirt-Senior Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree can fill the void.
8. Ohio State
It's risky putting the Buckeyes this high. They lost about 1/3 of last year's production and most of it came in the backcourt. Duane Washington Jr. (G) and CJ Walker (G) both left for the NBA. To fill the void, they brought in All-Defensive guard Jamari Wheeler from Penn St and 1st Team All-Conference guard Cedric Russell from Louisiana. That's most of their experienced backcourt though. Assuming they can figure things out, the rest of the roster looks great. They are deep with 6'6-6'8 bigs, including 1st Team All-Big Team forward E.J. Liddell. They have an OK Freshman class but will mostly be relying on the upperclassmen. More than anything, this is a vote of confidence for coach Chris Holtmann who always gets these Ohio State teams to overachieve.
9. Memphis
I wish I trusted Penny Hardaway as a coach more, because this is the talent of a top 4 squad. He recruited two top 4 freshmen: Emoni Bates (#4, F) and Jalen Duren (#3, C). 1st-Team All-Conference wing Landers Nolley returns. So do Lester Quinones (G), DeAndre Williams (F), and Alex Lomax (G), who all averaged 20+ MPG last year. Miami transfer Earl Timberlake (F) and Oregon transfer Chandler Lawason (F) bolster the bench too. The concerns are that the roster has no clear lead ball-handler and despite some great recruiting classes, Penny hasn't had a great team yet. If any year was open for him to prove himself as more than just a recruiter, this is it.
10. Michigan
I worry that we're all underestimating the size of Juwan Howard's rebuild job the season. Center Hunter Dickinson looks like a Play of the Year candidate and they have one of the best recruiting classes in the country coming in. That's masking the fact that over half of last year's production is gone. Four players left to be pros. Only Dickinson and guard Eli Brooks are back from the starting lineup. Brandon Johns (F) came off the bench last year. Those are the only guys who averaged over 10 mpg last year back on the roster. Big South Player of the Year Devante Jones should step into the backcourt right away. A six man Freshmen class including Caleb Houston (F, #8 on Rivals) and Moussa Dibate (F, #25) as well as 4 other top 130 recruits should have ample opportunity for play time. This is the first Michigan team with no real remnants of what John Beilein left behind, so this is Howard's chance to really prove himself. Having Hunter Dickinson will make the job a lot easier.
11. North Carolina
I know we're all nervous about what the Tar Heels will be without Roy Williams. Personally, I'm not that concerned about this season. Hubert Davis kept most of the key players on last year's roster. Those guys could probably sleepwalk to a top 25 season. The main losses were in the front court. Day'Ron Sharpe went pro. Garrison Brooks and Walker Kessler transferred. That's fine. The team had way too many bigs anyway. All-Conference big man Armando Bacot is back. They also got transfers Brady Manek (F - from Oklahoma) and Dawson Garcia (F - from Marquette) who will give the frontcourt more variety. Meanwhile, the whole backcourt (Caleb Love, RJ Davis, Leaky Black, Kerwin Walton) are back and 3 of them are ready for Sophomore leaps. The Freshman class is decent too. This is a team with a lot of depth, variety, and experience. It's the best possible situation for a new coach to walk into.
12. Duke
There's no telling how much the Coach K's farewell tour will embolden this squad. The Blue Devils had a weak year last season, lost as much production as UK, and didn't bolster the roster as much with transfers. So I have them a little lower. Jeremy Roach and Wendell Moore aren't the most inspiring back court, but they are former top 30 recruits who will hopefully put it all together finally. Big man Paolo Banchero (#2 per Rivals) is being talked about as the biggest impact Freshman in the country. If he's as good as billed, there's enough surrounding talent on the roster for them to be formidable. The class includes two other top 25 recruits in AJ Griffin (F, #16) and Trevor Keels (G, # 22). I'm most intrigued by rising Sophomore Mark Williams (C) who looked really good towards the end of last season. If you notice, this is yet another top team with a formidable frontcourt and thin backcourt. This could be the year of imbalanced top squads. Either that, or the season-end rankings will reflect that we were all wrong for ignoring balance issues.
13. Tennessee
I really like this squad. Of course it hurts to lose three guys to the pros, but the core of a really strong roster remains. Over half of last year's production is back from the top 30 squad. Santiago Vescovi is a quietly effective PG. Josiah James is one of those former top 20 recruits who seems like he's about to explode before every season. John Fulkerson is the savvy kind of Senior big who schools raw underclassmen. Victor Bailey (G) could probably start too. Auburn transfer Justin Powell was a 20 mpg player who gives them depth. Freshman PG Kennedy Chandler (#9 per Rivals) should be a stud from day one. Freshman bigs Jonas Aidoo (#24 per Rivals) and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield ((#35 per Rivals) don't have to be great right away and could develop into key pieces at whatever pace they want.
14. Illinois
Losing Ayo Dosunmu to the NBA hurts and Adam Miller could've been great for them had he not transferred to Auburn. Most of this top 5 squad is back though. Center Kofi Cockburn will likely be the most dominating force in the country. Few teams will have someone to match up with him. The backcourt should be fine too without Dosunmu too. All-Defensive guard Trent Frazier and rising Sophomore Andre Curbelo will be back. Florida transfer Omar Payne (F), Utah transfer Alfonso Plummer (G), and a strong recruiting class can fill in the rest of the holes.
15. Oregon
At this point in the rankings, it's safe to start trusting a proven coach with a couple of good players. The Duck lost about 75% of last year's production. That hurts. Having guard Will Richardson back is a big plus. Raw Center N'Faly Dante is oozing with potential still. Coach Dana Altman is great at figuring out how to make a roster work though, and he integrates transfers better than anyone. That means you can expects Syracuse transfer Quincy Guerrier (3rd Team All-Conference in the ACC last year), Oklahoma transfer De'Vion Harmon, and Rutgers transfer Jacob Young to all make big impact quickly.
16. Alabama
I'm going to need more than one good season before I'm ready to annoint Alabama as perenial overachievers. This is as high as I could manage. Seniors John Petty and Herb Jones were the motor of last year's team. They're prefessionals now along with surprise Freshman Josh Primo. That's over half of their scoring, minutes, and rebounds. Keeping the backcourt of Jahvon Quinerly and Jaden Shackelford is huge. They are likely All-Conference players. They'll be joined by 13th rated Freshman guard JD Davison. I'm a little worried about the frontcourt. Theyll be relying on either freshmen, rotation big James Rojas, or Furman transfer Noah Gurley. None are sure things. They didn't need much size last year to succeed though.
17. Baylor
See my
earlier rant about the Final Four Halo. We do this every year. A team wins the
championship. The core player bolt for the pros, then we put them in the
pre-season top 10 the next year (The AP Poll has Baylor at #8) then act
surprised when a decimated roster underachieves. I worry that #17 is an
overreach for Baylor. They lost 4 guys who were the heart and soul of that
team. I don't know what their identity is without them. It helps that wing
Matthew Mayer is back as well as energy big man Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua.
Adam Flagler (G) too. 11th rated Freshman Kendall Brown (F) is a nice addition
even though Scott Drew doesn't tend to develop Freshman quickly. Most of the
optimism comes from 1st-Team All Conference guard James Akinjo coming from
Arizona. If Baylor is a top 20 squad again this year, it'll have to be with a
new identity. We'll see.
18. Texas Tech
Coach Chris Beard is gone. So is about 60% of last year's production. New coach Mark Adams may have stopped the bleeding by bringing in a whopping 7 transfers. Key among those is Kevin Obanor, half of the high scoring Oral Roberts duo who made a Sweet 16 run last year. Three of the starters from last year's squad do return, including All-Conference guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (G/F). The Red Raider should be just fine without Chris Beard, for this season at least.
19. Florida
Based on the AP Poll, this is my biggest leap. The Gators didn't get a single vote in the AP Poll. Maybe I'm crazy. The squad finished 41st on KenPom last year and lost over half of their minutes, scoring, and rebounds. While 30th rated Freshman Kowacie Reeves (G) should be good, he's their only top 150 recruit. I really like the players coming back and the transfers too. Big man Colin Castleton made 2nd-Team All-SEC last year. Two other 20+ MPG players return. Myreon Jones comes in from Penn State where he averaged 30+ MPG. Phlandrous Fleming Jr. (from Charleston Southern) and Brandon McKissic (from UMKC) were both the Defensive Players of the Year in their conferences last year. That kind of grit is encouraging. I think people are selling really low of the Gators.
Oh, and there's a chance Keyontae Johnson, who was preseason POY in the SEC last year before a scary medical issue sidelined him after only four games, could come back at some point. He would be a huge boost.
20. Florida State
This one is based almost entirely on reputation. The Seminoles never have a sexy roster. 60% of last year's production is gone, including 4 players to the professional ranks. That's built into Leonard Hamilton's system though. He has deep rosters that spread out the minutes, so expect Anthony Polite (G), Malik Osborne (F), RayQuan Evens (G), and Wyatt Wilkes (F) to all step up in the rotation as needed. Top 40 Freshmen Jalen Warley (G, #37 per Rivals) and Matthew Cleveland (F, #17) will surely get some minutes. One will probably turn out to be a lottery pick, since Hamilton keeps churning those out lately. Cam'Ron Fletcher from Kentucky is a reclaimation project. Many UK transfers flourish in their new surroundings. It wouldn't surprise me if Fletcher does too. Finally, Caleb Mills (F) from Houston is a significant addition who should fit perfectly into Hamilton's system. He always finds a way.
21. Virginia
This is another one that's more about system and coach than the specific roster. The Caveliers' front court was decimated by graduation and the pros. 85% of their blocks, 75% of the rebounding, 63% of their minutes, and 75% of their scoring are all gone. Only two guys who averaged over 10mpg return. That would be starters Khei Clark (PG) and Reece Beekman (G). They do bring in 30 MPG guard Armaan Franklin from IU and 1st-Team All AAC forward Jayden Gardner. The front court situation isn't that clear yet. I'm not super worried. It can take a little while to learn Tony Bennett's system. While Kadin Shedrick (F) and Francisco Caffaro (C) averaged less than 10 MPG last season, with a proper summer to train, they could be ready for the role. Bennett also brings in two intriguing Freshman wings: Taine Murray and Igo Milicic. Milicic in particular is a prized intenational prospect. Virginia won't be world beaters, but there are always a few boring teams that make it to the top 25 on coaching prowess and system alone.
22. Indiana
Archie Miller could never figure out how to make a Hoosier squad gel. They finished 50th last year. There's a lot of reason to expect more this season. New coach Mike Woodson certainly can't be worse at getting something out of his talented players. Returning big man Trayce Jackson-Davis should be one of the best players in the country. Sophomores Trey Galloway, Anthonly Leal, Jordan Geronimo, and especially Khristian Lander should show a lot of improvement. I like having an experienced PG like Robert Phinesee around, even if he never quite turned into the stalwart we expected after his Freshman year. The Hoosiers got some nice transfers in Miller Kopp (F, from Northwestern), Xavier Johnson (G, from Pitt), and Parker Stewart (G, from UT Martin). Jackson-Davis will be the star, and he'll be surrounded by reliable depth.
23. Connecticut
The Huskies were not just James Bouknight last year. They finished 21st even though he missed over a third of the season. He's the only major loss to the team this year. They bring back about 75% of last year’s production. Conference defensive player of the year Isaiah Whaley (C) is back. 30+ mpg guards RJ Cole and Tyrese Martin return too. Rising sophomores Andre Jackson and Adama Sanogo should earn more minutes. They've got three Freshmen coming in ranked from 48 to 69. My only concern about UConn is who is taking the last shot? Is someone ready to step up as the star or is this going to be a team of supporting players? That will decide the season. For the record, everyone is looking to Tyrese Martin to be that guy. I'm not convinced.
24. Xavier
The question for Xavier is how much better can a team improve just by keeping a lot of their players. They bring in IU transfer Jerome Hunter and Iowa transfer Jack Nunge. Both should be rotation guys and not starters. The Freshman class has some building pieces but no clear stars. Any improvement should come from the returning guys, who represent about 80% of last season's minutes and scoring. Zach Freemantle(F) and Paul Scruggs (G) are both All-Conference players. Colby Jones (G) and Dwon Odom (G) are looking to make the Sophomore jump. Asking Xavier to go from 66th to top 25 is a lot, but they feel like a low-risk team.
25. Michigan State
I just can't leave the Spartans out. They had a worse year than Kansas, Duke, and UK last season. Over half the minutes and points are gone. However, I can't see Tom Izzo having back-to-back seasons outside of the rankings. Joey Hauser (F) and Malik Hall (F) are a fun frontcourt pairing. Izzo has several bench guys who have developed enough to play more. I'm optimistic that Northeastern PG Tyson Walker is about to go from dominating the CAA handling himself in the Big 10. 20th rated Freshman Max Christie (G) is a nice addition too. I trust that Izzo will find a way to excel.
Sleepers
These are 10 teams (5 from Big 7 Conferences, 5 from mid-major conferences) that I really like for some reason but can't justify including in my top 25. Occasionally, everything goes right and they breakout, but most of the teams will prove why they couldn't earn a top 25 spot.
Major Sleepers
Oklahoma State
I made this pick before news of the postseason ban and I'm sticking with it. The Cowboys are another team who lost their star player and no one else of note. They make up for Cade Cunningham's departure with two major transfers. First is Bryce Thompson (G) from Kansas. He was the 21st rated Freshman going into last season but failed to break into the rotation in a real way. Now he can have his sophomore leap on a team looking for an alpha. The other is Moussa Cisse from Memphis. He was the 14th rated Freshman going into last season and was named AAC Freshman of the Year. It's not unreasonable to expect both of them to break out and take a seasoned squad to new heights. This could even be a "fuck you" season to the NCAA.
Arizona
The Wildcats were quietly a top 30 team last year despite a self-imposed postseason bad. While firing Sean Miller is a tough loss, the benefit of being free from his constant waves of scandal should be a net plus. New coach Tommy Lloyd is no slouch either. Only about half of last year's minutes and points are back, but most of the returning production is a group of Freshman ready to make Sophomore leaps like Kerr Kriisa (G), Benedict Mathurin (G/F), and Azuolas Tubelis (F). They have several good transfers too. Oumar Ballo (C) is a former 5-star prospect who had trouble finding minutes on Gonzaga's loaded frontcourt. Kim Aiken Jr. (G/F) was an All-Conference defensive stalwart at East Washington. Justin Kier and Pelle Larsson earned a lot of minutes at Georgia and Utah respectively. It's anyone's guess how a less distracted Arizona team will do this year.
Oklahoma
Lon Kruger is a legend who will be hard to replace. He had a knack for overachieving with every roster. New coach Porter Moser proved more resilient at Loyola-Chicago than people expected, although most of his success did come with the same core players. I think he should do fine, but Kruger's value could really show in his absence. It doesn't help that 65% of the minutes, 72% of the scoring, and 66% of the rebounding is gone from last year's top 40 team. This is a fun lineup with a lot of transfers though, and transfers make teams wildcards. Jordan Goldwire (G) is coming off an All-Defensive season at Duke. Marvin Johnson (G) was 1st Team All-Conference at Eastern Illinois. The Groves brothers (both Forwards) earned a lot of fans in the NCAA tournament last year when their Eastern Washington team gave Kansas a scare. It's very likely this team never fully meshes, but they intrigue me a lot.
Auburn
Thanks to a self-imposed postseason ban, the Tigers didn't make much noise last year until Sherife Cooper joined mid-season and went on a scoring tear. They only finished 60th last year and lost two players to the pros and several others to transfer. Bruce Pearl really reloaded though. He got Jabari Smith (F), the 6th rated Freshman in the country. He added Walker Kessler (C) from UNC who had huge performances in very limited minutes at UNC last year. KD Johnson (G) from Georgia was a SEC All-Freshman player last year. Wendell Green Jr. (G) was 1st Team All-Conference at EKU. Zep Jasper (G) was 2nd Team at Charleston. And even with all the departures, nearly 60% of last year's production returns to the team. That means the Tigers have depth and some real X-factors in Smith, Kessler, and Johnson who could all be breakout stars.
St. John's
I feel like there should be more rumblings about the Red Storm. I think it's the fact that they only finished 69th last year and bring back just 5 players. The two returning starters are mighty good though. Post Alexander (G) was the Big East Freshman of the Year AND Defensive Player of the Year. Julian Champaignie (G/F) was the Most Improved Player and made 1st-Team All-Conference. They bring in 5 D-I transfers to bolster the lineup, including 4 players who averaged at least 20 MPG. None of them need to break out though. They just need to fill minutes. Alexander and Champagnie are the stars.
Mid-Major Sleepers
St. Bonaventure
Technically, a preseason Top 25 team in the AP Poll isn't a sleeper. I don't have them in MY top 25 though, and I'd be foolish to not mention them at all. Here's what I find interesting about the Bonnies. All 5 starters are back from this NCAA tournament team and only those five are back. The whole bench is gone. The bench losses shouldn't matter much, since those five accounted for 87% of the minutes, 89% of the points, 89% of the rebounds, and 92% of the assists. To bolster their depth, they have Pitt transfer Abdoul Karim Coulibaly (F) and Wake transfer Quadry Adams (G). No recruits to speak of, but I'm sure at least one will earn some playing time. My concern with St. Bonaventure is one I have for a lot of teams in the 30-40 range who bring everyone back: how much better can they really get? All five starters averaged 30+ mpg. Three got All-Conference honors. They are all Seniors. Where's the next gear coming from? Still, maybe I'm wrong and even more experience counts more than I expect. Then again, this extra year of eligibility from last year not counting means more teams have more experience than we've seen in years. Is that really such a competitive advantage for the Bonnies?
Utah State
It's hard to overstate how much Neemias Queta's nationally awarded defense in the middle meant to last year's top 50 squad. They won't be able to win in the same way, but I'm optimistic. Two starters return, including All-Conference forward Justin Bean. New coach Ryan Odom brought two 1st-Team All-Conference players with him from UMBC. Former Utah PG Rylan Jones should do well in the slightly different scenery. I think this could be a situation where Queta cleaned up mistakes for guys last year while they honed their skills, and with him gone, those guys will be ready to shine.
Loyola-Chicago
When good coaches leave good teams on good terms, the new coach often doesn't have to do much for the first couple years. Those players can sleepwalk to successful seasons. I don't know if the Ramblers' new coach is any good, but I think his team will do just fine regardless. While losing Cameron Krutwig is a huge loss, he is also the only significant loss. Five guys are back who averaged over 20 mpg, including two All-Conference players. It's not clear who with play Center now, but a pair of Ivy League transfers, Chris Knight and Ryan Schwieger, can help. The real question here is how much can a top 10 team really fall when the only lost one player of note?
BYU
The Cougars were a top 20 team last year who only lost about 40% of their production. Team leader Alex Barcello (G) is back. Caleb Lohner (F) will look to make a Sophomore leap. Te'Jon Lucas from Milwaukee and Seneca Knight from San Jose State should step in to help right away. It's hard to doubt BYU when they're generally so consistent. And again, how far can they really fall?
Buffalo
They still have a couple Nate Oates guys floating around like Jeenathan Williams and Joshua Mballa who should be stars in the league. Only one starter is gone from last year's top 80 team. Not much of note is coming into the team. Bringing back 80% of the minutes and scoring is a nice formula for dominating a small conference if nothing else.
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