After a year off, I'm back with my way too thorough basketball picks. And thank god I took last year off. I still made my picks. I just didn't publish them. They were very bad. It turns out, no NCAA tournament in 2020 followed by limited summer training really messed up anyone's ability to predict how things would go. Just as importantly, that limited non-conference threw all advanced number off. Conference ratings were incredibly lopsided. Low turnover conferences like the Big 10 dominated while major programs with more turnover like Duke and Kentucky really struggled. This year has its own set of challenges. Every player who played last season gets an extra year of availability, so there are more super-seniors than ever. In addition to that, the NCAA opened up the transfer rules, resulting in an unprecedented amount of player movement. Then there's the NIL rights convincing more fringe players to stick around. That sets up for a year with more dominant teams than we've seen since maybe 2015. I'm very excited.
I don't think I can stress enough the amount of time I put in tracking college basketball rosters. I follow recruits, transfers, minutes played, positions, All-Conference teams, etc. If I'm crazy enough to make picks for every conference, I'm sure as hell going to make a post about it. So, here you go.
By the way, any time I mention Conference rankings, I'm basing it off Kenpom, not final Conference W-L record. Whenever I mention recruiting rankings, I'm referring to Rivals.
2019-2020:
The Power Five
ACC (70.2)
1. North Carolina - This feels a little risky in Coach K's last year and an unproven Hubert Davis' first year, but I really like this roster. Last year's roster was overloaded with bigs, so losing Day'Ron Sharpe (NBA) and Garrison Brooks (transfer) isn't that much of a problem. No one else of note is gone. That means the back court of Caleb Love, RJ Davis, Leaky Black, and Kerwin Walton are back to give stability. All except maybe Black have a chance to get a lot better too. All-Conference big man Armando Bacot is back. Before you worry about the front court dept being depleted, they brought in Brady Manek from Oklahoma and Dawson Garcia from Marquette. Manek is especially intriguing, because he gives the team stretch capabilities. The recruiting class is only OK, but the Tar Heels won't be relying on youth. As for the new coach's inexperience, there's a long history of coaches inheriting good rosters and winning due to inertia alone.
2. Duke - There's a little more room for variance with Duke's roster. Three players went pro and stable All-Defensive guard Jordan Goldwire transfered. I fully expect #2 Freshman Paolo Banchero (F) to be a beast right away. One of the other two top 25 Freshman, AJ Griffin (F) or Trevor Keels (G), should be ready to contribute quickly too. They are joining a team with very little in the back court though. Sophomore Jeremy Roach is the only rotation guard returning from last year, and he didn't exactly blow people away. That's a big concern. A lot of other backcourt minutes will go to Junior Wendell Moore (playing somewhat out of position). Moore had a really inconsistent season last year. Maybe with more stability, his career can get back on track. I'm actually most excited for Center Mark Williams. The Sophomore big man started to explode toward the end of last season and will look to continue that with fewer players in his way. The Blue Devils can finish at the top of the ACC based on talent alone, and I'm sure the Coach K farewell tour will give them an extra boost.
3. Florida State - On paper, it looks rough for the Seminoles. They lost 4 players to the pros. They will be relying on a lot of new players. Leonard Hamilton has been too good at reloading every year for me to be concerned though. Anthony Polite (G), Malik Osborne (F), RayQuan Evans (G), and Wyatt Wilkes (F) are all back to maintain some continuity. I'm excited to see how UK transfer Cam'Ron Fletcher (F) does there. He's raw, but with more opportunity than he got on the Wildcats, he could really flourish. However, a lot of their success will be based on how quickly they can integrate top Freshman Jalen Warley (G, #37 in the country) and Matthew Cleveland (F, #17). Hamilton's system is all about depth, so a weak link won't sink them as much as other teams.
Sleeper: Virgina - It's hard to call the Cavaliers a sleeper, since they are my pick to finish fourth. It's hard to ever count out a Tony Bennett team. This is the most depleted lineup he's had in a while. There are no obvious pros on the roster and only two returning players who averaged more than 10 minutes for them last year. Bennett's system isn't easy to learn, so that's concerning. They have 4 obvious starters. Kihei Clark (PG) is by far the most experienced player. He'll need to be a real leader on the team. Reece Beekman (G) is also back and hopefully ready to make a Sophomore leap. Two transfers are likely to start in the forward spots: Armaan Franklin (from IU) and Jayden Gardner (All-Conference player from ECU). Center is less clear and may be played by committee. The big question is how quickly they can integrate Freshmen Taine Murray and Igo Milicic. Foreign prospects like that are always a bit of a mystery. Most of this Sleeper status is because I trust Tony Bennett to figure things out.
Also Worth Mentioning: Louisville has a potentially deep team with no obvious stars. Hopefully Sammuel Williamson can finally reach his potential or Jae'lyn Withers can make a Sophomore leap. Frankly, I just want the team to stay out of the news for all the wrong reasons. That must be distracting to the team. I keep waiting for the Notre Dame bounce back season. With everyone getting the extra year of eligibility, their strategy of staying old and beating teams with experience isn't likely to help this year. On Syracuse, Buddy Boeheim is going to be a star in his Senior season but the roster around him is pretty depleted. Georgia Tech was a feel-good story last year. They lost their two best players in the two most important positions in college (PG and C). Don't look for momentum to carry them very far. I'm hearing a lot of buzz about Miami. I just don't see it though. All-Conference guard Isaiah Wong will be good. They had some bad injury luck too last season. I don't like their transfers or Freshman class though. I'm not seeing that much room to improve. NC State scares me every year. They've got 9 underachieving players who came to college as top 150 recruits. That's more than every team in the ACC except UNC (11) and Louisville (also 9). They are a wildcard every year.
Bottom of the Barrel: Boston College - No All-Conference players on the roster. Not even an All-Freshman player. That's hard to do. Normally when teams are bad, they have a Freshman or two who get a ton of burn right away. Instead, BC had 7 players transfer out and no top 150 Freshmen coming in. It's hard to find anything to be excited about here. Maybe the pair of players with the last name Langford in their back court (Makai and Demarr), their only two players who originally came in a top 150 recruits, can carry them out of last place.
Big 12 (62.4)
1. Kansas - Don't bet against Bill Self with a loaded roster and something to prove. Last year was underwhelming, but four starters are back and they bring in PG Remy Martin from ASU to fill the gaping hole they had last year in that position. This looks like a vintage Kansas team.
2. Texas - New coach Chris Beard has loaded up with a terrific returning backcourt of Cortney Ramsey and Andrew Jones and a massive 7-man transfer group that is the strongest in the country, headlined by Marcus Carr from Minnesota and Timmy Allen from Utah. The only concern with Texas is going to be how to get everyone minutes.
3. Baylor - I think the drop from 2nd to 3rd will be significant. Scott Drew has rebuilt the team as well as possible with #11 rated Freshman Kendall Brown (F), 1st-Team All-Conference Arizona transfer James Akinjo, and some key pieces from last year's championship team. The four guys who left for the pros are a massive loss though. The Big 12 will be top heavy in the top two spots. It'll be a battle after that: one that the Bears I expect to barely edge ahead in.
Sleeper: West Virginia - The Mountaineers are a boring roster to look at, but Bob Huggins always figures out a way to rebuild. I'm nervous about how few people are talking about them as threats.
Also Worth Mentioning: Oklahoma State has some threats in transfers Bryce Thompson and Moussa Cisse coming in. If they come in with a chip on their shoulder about the recently announced postseason ban, they could be a real pest for everyone they face. Texas Tech will undoubtedly take a hit with Chris Beard leaving, but they bring in a ton of good transfers and keep All-Conference wing Terrence Shannon on the roster.
Bottom of the Barrel: Iowa State - The Cyclones have another new coach and a ton of interesting transfers. I think they still barely fall short of overtaking the other sub-100 squads from last year: Kansas State and TCU, who should still round out the bottom three.
Big 10 (38.6)
1. Purdue - They are a top 25 team last year who brings everyone back and has a couple players with real upside in Jaden Ivey and Zach Edey. Center Trevion Williams is a beast too. I have my doubts about Purdue, but I always do and I'm always wrong. I'll hop on the bandwagon for a change this year.
2. Ohio State - Losing the backcourt of Duane Washington Jr and CJ Walker really hurts, but Chris Holtman keeps finding a way to rebuild. A lack of backcourt depth should be made up for by an array of 6'6-6'8 players who can cover the floor; namely 1st-Team All-Conference Junior EJ Liddell.
3. Michigan - I'm a tad low on Michigan because I think people aren't appreciating that the Wolverines lost three 30+ mpg players from last year. Still, Hunter Dickinson and Eli Brooks are back. That's huge. The recruiting class is one of the best in the country. Juwan Howard could really shut me up this year if he can get this team to reach its potential.
Sleeper: Indiana - The talent is there. Trayce Jackson-Davis is already a star, Khristian Lander has potential. The roster is littered with several other former top 75 recruits. For whatever reason, Archie Miller could never maximize the talent. It's very possible that the more NBA-friendly Mike Woodson will be able to.
Also Worth Mentioning: Illinois shouldn't take a huge step back from last year's top 5 squad with Kofi Cockburn (C) returning as one of the best players in the country. There's plenty of other depth and talent on the roster. I think Rising Sophomore Andre Curbelo (G) could be the key to the season. Michigan State has no clear star on this roster but there's no way they put together another sub-60 season. I'm majorly selling on Maryland. They replace three key players with some lesser transfers. They finished last season 35th and I have no idea how they improve on that.
Bottom of the Barrel: Minnesota - New coach. Almost complete roster turnover. Most transfers in are from smaller conferences. The Golden Gophers will need some other team to majorly under-achieve, because there's no way they are putting up a competitive squad this year.
PAC 12 (51.9)
1. UCLA - Maybe the Final Four run was fluky but they definitely proved to be Sweet 16 or Elite 8 good. That kind of team bringing back the entire roster of significance is normally good enough to be a Pac-12 frontrunner. Especially when they add the 12th rated Freshman to the team (Peyton Watson). The only thing that could hurt this squad is if they fold under the pressure of having all eyes on them. I don't know about that though. Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez looked pretty comfortable with the spotlight on them in March.
2. Oregon - Dana Altman always figures it out with a couple returning players and some good transfers. Expect Will Richardson and Syracuse transfer Quincy Guerrier to lead the team.
3. Arizona - They were quietly a top 30 squad who relied a lot on Freshmen who are now Sophomores. That's a great formula for success.
Sleeper: USC - Maybe the Trojans were more than just Evan Mobley and Tahj Eaddy last year when they finished as a top 10 team. They bring just about everyone else back. Most eyes are on Evan's older brother Isaiah to step in as the new star. I'm not convinced, but they look like the most reasonable sleeper for the league.
Also Worth Mentioning: After a really strong 2020-21 season, the league looks like it's going to drop off a lot. Overall there's a significant talent drain, so fading squads like Colorado and Oregon State aren’t that interesting to talk about.
Bottom of the Barrel: California - The Bears lost their only All-Conference player on a sub-100 squad and aren't replacing him with anyone of note. Even Stanford and the Washington schools have some reasons to be excited. California is just boring.
SEC (61)
1. Kentucky - There are so many reasons why last season was a fluke. It was a worst-case scenario for the Wildcats and still, they finished better on Kenpom than in 2013 (Not a fact people bring up when they talk about it being an historically bad season). Most of the problem players are gone. Coach Cal brought a ton of transfer in to fill a variety of roster holes. They have a pair of top 20 Freshmen of course. They may night light the world on fire right away, but it's hard to see how this roster isn't gelling by conference play.
2. Tennessee - I don't worry as much about teams losing three guys to the pros when they play in the middle three positions. The PG and C are back on Tennessee. They've got returning depth and a strong recruiting class, headlined by the #9 recruit per Rivals, Kennedy Chandler (G).
3. Florida - I'm bullish on the Gators. They bring back some rotation player and an All-Conference big man (Colin Castleton). Mike White recruited accomplished transfers from big and small schools with a defensive mindset. I have fewer questions about them than other teams in the conference. And there's always a chance that Keyontae Johnson could return after that scary collapse that cut last season short for him.
Sleeper: Auburn - I love Bruce Pearl's work on the transfer market. He got underused big man Walker Kessler from UNC and All-Freshman guard KD Johnson from Georgia as well as a pair of All-Conference guys from smaller schools. He also brings in #6 recruit per Rivals, Jabari Smith (F). He'll be doing a pretty complete rebuild from last season, but he’s got the right parts to turn things around quickly.
Also Worth Mentioning: Alabama had a special mix of players last year. It's hard to imagine them coming close to the same heights but having Jahvon Quinerly and Jaden Shakelford as likely All-Conference players is a great start. I don't believe in Arkansas at all this year. The team massively over-achieved last year and much more left the roster than he was able to recruit in this season. I see no obvious star on the roster and it's a weak Freshman class. They won't be awful this year, just unremarkable. Mississippi State has a lot of potential to rise with a series of major transfers. Rocket Watts could never put it together at Michigan St. Same with DJ Jeffries at Memphis, and Garrison Brooks at UNC. That's three experienced high-level players with something to prove.
Bottom of the Barrel: South Carolina - Since that miracle Final Four run, the Gamecocks just haven't been able to keep a roster together. They lost two 30 mpg players this year and replace them with unremarkable transfers and some OK Freshmen. Frank Martin has no momentum left from that Final Four and no clear path out of the bottom of the conference.
The "If It Wasn't for Football" Majors
American Athletic Conference (100.8)
1. Memphis - Penny Hardaway has a terrific mix of Freshman, transfers, and returning players. He saw a lot of players transfer out too, but much more talent came in that out. It starts with #3 Freshman in the country Jalen Duren (C) and #4 Emoni Bates (F). Four other top 150 Freshman as well. They'll be paired with returning players Lester Quinones (G/F), Landers Nolley (G/F, All Conference 1st team last year), and DeAndre Williams (F). The main impact transfer seems to be Earl Timberlake (F) from Miami. They'll be able to win most games on talent alone. The only weakness you make see is a lack of a true PG. Perhaps Senior Alex Lomax can fill the role or they can do PG by committee. Now is when Penny needs to prove he can do more than recruit.
2. SMU - All-Conference 1st Team guard Kendric Davis will be the head of the team. Not much else from last year's team will be back, but they are lousy with intriguing transfers. Michael Weathers (G), Marcus Weathers (F), and Zach Nutall (G) were all All-Conference players for smaller conferences last year. I'm most intrigued by transfer Tristan Clark (F) from Baylor. Injuries led him to retire from the game in 2020, but going into that season, he was thought to be Baylor's best player. Hopefully his return indicates that he's finally healed and back to that form. They just need one or two Freshmen to break out and this is a talented team with depth.
3. Houston - The Cougars were a top 5 team last year and Kelvin Sampson has proven he's capable of rebuilding quickly. Logically, I should have them second in the league, but I'm assuming with 3 players going pro, they will take a slight dip. All-Conference Guard Marcus Sasser is back. Rising Sophomore Tramon Mark (G/F) too. Fabian White (F) should be back in form to man the middle. Texas Tech transfer Kyler Edwards (G) is a lock as a starter. Taze Moore (F) from Cal St Bakersfield could step in right away too. Looking at this roster though, I don't see anyone obvious to make a real jump. Sampson lost a ton of talent last year. The Cougars will still be good. It's hard to see how they can be great.
Sleeper: Cincinnati - They intrigue me a lot. New coach Wes Miller should be a big improvement. He brought in 6 transfers who could all crack the rotation. A decent amount of experience is back. I predict they'll finish middle of the pack, but they have the most variance of any team I'm seeing.
Also Worth Mentioning: Wichita State actually won the league last year and bring back Conference POY Tyson Etienne (G). They look very similar to last year's squad. Every team has continuity though this year. I think the Shockers will regret not getting more in the transfer marker. South Florida is a pretty bad team that brought in 7 D-I transfers. More transfers mean less predictability so keep an eye out for them. They'll probably be bad though.
Bottom of the Barrel: East Carolina - Their only All-Conference player, Jayden Gardner (F), transferred. The transfers and Freshman are pretty lacking. There's just not a lot of avenues for improvement here.
Atlantic 10 (127.9)
1. St. Bonaventure - They were the best team in the conference last year and brought back everyone of note, including All-Conference guards Kyle Lofton and Jaren Holmes and A-10 Defensive Player of the Year Osun Osunniyi (C). A whopping five 30+ MPG players are back. And they get some help with ACC transfers Abdoul Karim Coulibaly (F, from Pitt) and Quadry Adams (G, from Wake). The only way they don't win the league is injuries.
2. Richmond - The Spiders were the team expected to win the A10 last year for similar reasons as the Bonnies this year. This year they only lost one player of note to the pros. What they bring back is tiny All-Conference PG Jacob Gilyard and All-Conference big man Grant Golden with depth for all the spots in between. They aren't a sexy pick with any great transfers or Freshman, but they sure look reliable.
3. VCU - The Rams will take a small dip with A-10 POY Bones Hyland in the NBA now. They have the rest of the team back, including All-Conference wing Vince Williams, defensive big Hason Ward, and rising Sophomore guard Adrian Baldwin. Washington transfer Marcus Tsohonis (G) gives them a little spice along with a decent group of Freshmen. Consistency is the theme at the top of the A10 this year.
Sleeper: St. Louis - I had to keep them out of the top 3 with Jordan Goodwin and Hansan French both leaving for professional careers, but the new roster has a lot of potential to shake things up. All-Conference wing Javonte Perkins is still there. Transfers Jordan Nesbitt (from Memphis) and Francis Okoro (from Oregon) have as much upside as anyone in the league. It only takes one elite player to disrupt the A10.
Also Worth Mentioning: On Rhode Island, Junior bigs Makhi and Makhel Mitchell scare me. Not many teams in the league that can stop them if they reach their potential. Dayton isn't that far removed from being a top 5 team in the country. They always have a fun mix of talent. George Washington always underperforms, but it should be noted that they bring in a trio of former high recruits from bigger schools. They have the pieces to make some noise.
Bottom of the Barrel: Fordham - They were easily the worst team in the league last year. A bunch of players transferred out. None of the players joining the squad look especially impressive. For Fordham to avoid last place again, they're going to need some improvement from unexpected places.
Big East (66.5)
1. Villanova - I really question the Wildcats' Center plan to replace Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, but the roster is otherwise unimpeachable. Collin Gillespie, Justin Moore, and Caleb Daniels form an excellent backcourt. They have backcourt depth and talent. Eventually, with so many great big men in college this year, they'll run into some trouble, but I don't see that affecting their Big East odds.
2. Connecticut - A lot of teams have to get a lot better to catch up to the Huskies who "only" really lost James Bouknight. As long as someone like RJ Cole, Tyrese Martin, or even rising Sophomore Isaiah Whaley can step up as the new alpha, there's every reason to think they can give Nova some competition.
3. Xavier - The Musketeers underachieved last year. They bring most of the team back though and many of those players were Freshmen and Sophomores last year. They have plenty of room to grow and improve. Paul Scruggs, Colby Jones, and Zach Freemantle should all be problems for most teams.
Sleeper: St. John's - I'm excited to see what bringing Posh Alexander (Big East Defensive Player of the Year and Freshman of the Year) and Julian Champagnie (1st Team All Conference and Most Improved Player) back for another year could mean for the Red Storm.
Also Worth Mentioning: Marquette lost a lot from last year. They did snag B10 Defensive Player of the Year Darryl Morsell (G) though. That's intriguing. Creighton will be relying a lot on a big Freshman class of recruits in the 50-150 range. Greg McDermott is a good coach. I'd love to see him coach the team out of free fall.
Bottom of the Barrel: DePaul - They're perennially the worst team in the conference. I do appreciate that they've taken on a couple reclamation project in Tyon Grant-Foster (from Kansas) and Jalen Terry (from Oregon). Those are the kind of swings you need to take to get out of the bottom.
Mountain West (163.1)
1. Utah State - There's a good amount left on the roster even without dominant Center Neemias Queta around. I'm not as convinced about the depth of the Mountain West this year as others, so I think Justin Bean (F) and some transfers will be enough to win the league.
2. San Diego State - Brian Dutcher keeps extending the SDSU run of success longer than expected. It's hard to see him overachieving again with three guys off to the professional ranks. Center Nathan Mansah is a nice piece to bring back though along with good transfers like Matt Bradley (from Cal) and Jaedon Lee (from TCU).
3. Colorado State - I don't get the Top 25 buzz for the Rams. They finished 76th last year and bring back two All Conference players along with basically everyone else. No impact transfers or high-rated Freshmen. Where's the improvement supposed to come from to move 50 spots? Still, it's plenty to succeed in the Mountain West.
Sleeper: UNLV - They've got 8 D-I transfers coming in to join a pair of returning 30+ mpg guards. That's almost the exact formula for a sleeper team. They did finish 176th last year though, so they need to improve a hell of a lot.
Also Worth Mentioning: I'm curious to see if former top 30 recruit Will Baker will fair any better in Nevada than her did at Texas. New Mexico hired Richard Pitino, who I'm not ready to give up on yet. He's adding a quartet of Big 5 conference transfers. Surely he can't do any worse than the 294th finish the Lobos suffered last year.
Bottom of the Barrel: Air Force - I feel like every year I look at the Air Force roster, see nothing encouraging about it, then San Jose State edges them out barely as the worst team in the conference. For example, Air Force finished a pathetic 332nd last year. SJSU finished 333rd. Like Charlie Brown with the football, I'm falling for it again. At least SJSU has some transfers and a new coach. Air Force just has a depleted version of last year's miserable roster.
Missouri Valley Conference (136.8)
1. Loyola-Chicago - There's still too much leftover talent on the roster to bump them out of the top spot yet. There's no more Cameron Krutwig but there are still 5 other 20+ mpg players, including two All-Conference and All-Defensive team guys.
2. Drake - If anyone is giving Loyola a scare, it's Drake. 7 of the top 8 guys on a team that finished 55th last year are back, including 1st Team All-Conference Senior Roman Penn (G).
3. Missouri State - Their makeup is really similar to Drake's with a couple returning All-Conference players and most of the top players back. They just finished 30 spots lower than Drake, so I don't see how they leapfrog them.
Sleeper: Valparaiso - They bring in three Wisconsin transfers and a Michigan St transfer. That much B10 influence has to give them a wildcard factor.
Also Worth Mentioning: Northern Iowa had a mediocre season last year but relied a lot on Freshmen who will now be Sophomores, like Nate Heiuse and Bowen Born. It wouldn't be shocking to see them up in the top of the MVC standings again.
Bottom of the Barrel: Illinois State - The one All-Conference player on a team that finished 198th transferred out. Things aren't looking good for them.
The True Mid-Majors
Colonial Athletic Association (220.3)
Favorite: Drexel - Two All-Conference players (one front court, one back court) for last year’s best team in the Conference, and they bring in Melik Martin, an All-Conference forward from Monmouth. This is an easy pick.
Runner-Up: Delaware - I really love the big/small combo for mid-major teams. It's the clearest sign of roster balance. The Hens return All-Conference guard Ryan Allen and All-Conference (and All-Defensive) big man Dylan Painter. Oh, and the entire rest of last year's roster.
Sleeper: Hofstra - They still have 1st-Team All-Conference guard Jalen Ray (G) and All-Freshman K-Vonn Cramer (F) then add 3 high-major transfers. That's a great way to make up for lost depth.
Bottom of the Barrel: Charleston - They aren't as dire as most bottom teams. Only three players from last year's team are back. Even though they bring in some decent transfers like John Meeks from Buckness and Fah'Mir Ali from Radford, that level of turnover worries me.
Conference USA (168)
Favorite: Louisiana Tech - Despite WKU's recruiting advantage, LA Tech still finished top of CUSA last year. Most of the key pieces of last year's squad are back, including a pair of All-Conference forwards, Isaiah Crawford and Kenneth Lofton Jr. It's easy to believe in this team.
Runner-Up: Western Kentucky - One of these days all the Hilltoppers' talent should yield a really dangerous team. Losing All-Everything Center Charles Bassey is huge, but this is still a very complete roster. Josh Anderson (G) may finally be ready for that star turn in the league. Dayvion McKnight (G) is a good Sophomore leap candidate. Keith Williams was All-Conference AAC last year at Cincinnati and enters CUSA as one of the best players. Jarius Hamilton and Jaylen Butz are also high-major transfers who were key parts of their rosters. Once again, WKU on paper looks like the best team. I refuse to be fooled again though.
Sleeper: Charlotte - Every year I expect this team to be better. They always have a couple intriguing players and do nothing with them. I'm falling for it again. They've got 1st Team All-Conference PG Jahmir Young and a bunch of high-major transfers. That's a potential formula for success.
Bottom of the Barrel: Middle Tennessee - Remember when Middle Tennessee was good? It wasn't that long ago. They finished sub-300 last year and don't bring in enough to expect much better. I suppose top 150 Freshman recruit Teafale Lenard gives a small bit of hope.
Mid-American Conference (173)
Favorite: Buffalo - It should be a battle at the top of the conference again. I'm giving Buffalo the edge. They've got Jeenathan Williams and Joshua Mballa, who were both 2nd Team All-Conference forwards, coming back and most of the rest of last year's core too.
Runner-Up: Ohio - The Bobcats have a bunch of All-Conference, All-Defensive, and All-Freshman players coming back. The one thing that don't bring back is Jason Preston, who left for the pros. I suspect the team will struggle some to find a new top dog but they should have plenty to remain competitive in the MAC.
Sleeper: Bowling Green State - I'm excited by a pair of rising Sophomores in Kaden Metheny (G) and Josiah Fulcher (G) and All-Conference wing Daeqwon Plowdoen. In addition to that, they've got a lot of transfers coming in. I think the top two in the league are pretty set, but BGSU has the makeup of a disrupter.
Bottom of the Barrel: Eastern Michigan - It hurts to see a team with no All-Conference players lose 4 of their top 6 guys. There's not much to build on in Ypsilanti.
Summit League (215.4)
Favorite: South Dakota State - I know Oral Roberts got the Sweet Sixteen run, but the Jackrabbits were actually the best team in the conference per Kenpom last year. 3 guys who averages 30+ mpg and three more who averaged 20+ mpg are back on the best team in the Summit. Yeah, this pick is pretty easy.
Runner-Up: Oral Roberts - Lost in the excitement of conference POY Max Abrams returning is that his 6'8 scoring partner Kevin Obanor is gone. The two scorers is what made the team special last year. We've seen countless small school with one high-scoring guard struggle to dominate their league. I think Oral Roberts with Vanderbilt transfer Isaac McBride (G) and returning complementary pieces should be just fine, but don't expect Max Abrams to make them a surprise powerhouse.
Sleeper: St. Thomas - No team really fits the bill this season, so I might as well go with the only new D1 school this year. I truly don't know what to expect from Minnesota's 2nd D1 school. History says they'll underwhelm, but who knows?
Bottom of the Barrel: Denver - Finished 338th last year. Lost their only All-Conference player. Things aren't looking good.
Sunbelt Conference (230.1)
Favorite: Louisiana - Tons of potential on this team. Defensive Player of the Year Theo Akwuba (C) returns along with several high-major transfers. Most notable is Jordan Brown (F), a former 5 star recruit from Arizona, and former 4-star recruit from St. Johns, Greg Williams (G). It might be asking a lot for a sub-200 team to suddenly win the conference, but the Rajin Cajuns can probably out-talent nearly every Sunbelt team.
Runner-Up: Georgia State - I pretty much always trust Georgia State in the Sunbelt. They aren’t hitting the transfer market quite as hard as they used to. They still did land former 4-star prospect from WKU, Jordan Rawls. He's added to the best squad in the conference last year who lost only a couple fringe rotation players. Odds are, I'll look stupid for picking Louisiana over them. I like to live dangerously.
Sleeper: South Alabama - When in doubt, pick the mediocre team with 7 D1 transfers (6 from high-major programs).
Bottom of the Barrel: Louisiana Monroe - There are 3 or 4 schools competing for the bottom. Louisiana Monroe had the least exciting roster by a hair, so I'm going with them.
West Coast Conference (115.1)
Favorite: Gonzaga - With Chet Holgren, Drew Timme, and Andrew Nembhard, the Zags are preseason #1 in the country. The only question is if they'll lose any games in the WCC.
Runner-Up: BYU - The Cougars were quietly a top 20 team last year and don't lose as much as you think. Alex Barcello and some 30+ mpg transfers don't stand a chance against Gonzaga, but they sure look good against everyone else.
Sleeper: Saint Mary's - The Gaels are always lurking as a top 50 team. They bring absolutely everyone back from last year's 75th rated team and Randy Bennett is a coach who manages to find improvement in players no matter what. I think it's very possible that the WCC is a 3-bid league this year.
Bottom of the Barrel: Portland - They finished an abysmal 321st least year, lost most players, and got a new coach. I'm not expecting much from this factory reset squad.
They Have Some Good Teams
Big Sky Conference (219.3)
Favorite: Weber State - With Eastern Washington decimated, things are looking wide open for Weber State. They have All-Conference guard Seikou Sisoho Jaware and FOY Dillon Jones (F) pairing up with a couple 30+ mpg transfers from Marquette and Utah Valley. And a lot of depth. Things a looking good for them.
Runner-Up: Southern Utah - They bring back a trio of All-Conference players and don't lose all that much. It's hard to ask for a better situation.
Sleeper: Portland State - They are a mediocre team bringing in six D1 transfers. That's a lot of variability.
Bottom of the Barrel: Idaho - One of the worst teams in the country lost much of their rotation. Off.
Big West Conference (192.3)
Favorite: UC Irvine - You can never keep the Anteaters down for long. This team brings back 1st Team All-Conference big man Collin Welp and Freshman of the year Dawson Baker (G) along with some depth. That's a good formula.
Runner-Up: UC Santa Barbara - The Gouchos were easily the best team in the conference last year but lost Big West POY JaQuari McLaughlin. Even though 1st Team All-Conference forward Amadou Sow returns, they are likely to take a slight step back.
Sleeper: UC Davis - They bring back a pair of 2nd Team All-Conference guards in Ezra Manjon and Elijah Pepper. That's as good a starting place as any.
Bottom of the Barrel: Cal State Northridge - Cal Poly may be the more likely pick since they were bad and show little improvement. I think CSUN losing Newcomer of the Year TJ Starks (G) will have a massive impact though. 2nd-Team All-Conference guard Darius Brown II won't be able to save them.
Ivy League (215.1*)
Favorite: Yale - The Ivy League is a mystery since they didn't play at all last year. To combat that uncertainty, I'll go with the traditional powers. Yale brings back a former 1st Team All-Conference guard (Azar Swain) and former Defensive POY (Jalen Gabbidon) along with a couple OK recruiting classes. That should be enough, right?
Runner-Up: Harvard - Having Noah Kirkwood back is a great start. What's intriguing is that they've had a couple strong recruiting classes for the Ivy League, meaning they'll have talented Sophomores who are complete mystery boxes.
Sleeper: Brown - The Bears have a returning All-Conference PG (Jaelin Llewellyn) and a ton of Freshman. It's anyone's guess what that will look like.
Bottom of the Barrel: Cornell - All but one player who averaged over 20 mpg the last time they played are gone. And they weren't that good to begin with.
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (254.9)
Favorite: Iona - I've fallen hard for Rick Pitino and the Gaels. He already turned things around quickly with an NCAA berth. Freshman of the year Nelly Junior Joseph (F) is back. They hit the transfer market with 3 guys who averaged 20+ mpg for power conference schools, including Quinn Slazinski from Louisville. MAAC teams just don't ever have Hall of Fame coaches with a grudge leading them.
Runner-Up: St. Peter's - It also helps Iona that nearly every other team in the MAAC are looking at a down year. With two returning All-Conference players, St. Peter's seems most likely to be this high, but it's looking like they'll be in a distant 2nd.
Sleeper: Manhattan - They were pretty terrible last year, finishing 315th. They do bring back a pair of All-Conference players and bring in Jose Perez from Marquette and Josh Roberts from St. John's.
Bottom of the Barrel: Fairfield - An example of a bad team bringing back all the players who made them bad the year before. No All-Conference players. Not even a rising Sophomore. Just the same bad upperclassmen.
Southern Conference (162.2)
Favorite: Chattanooga - It's easy to like the look of this team. Three 30+ MPG guards are back. They've got 4-star wing Randy Brady coming in. They also got forgotten former 5-star Center Silvio De Sousa, who I thought went pro 2 years ago. Oh, and three other 20 mpg players are back too. No team in the conference has this mix of experience and potential.
Runner-Up: ETSU - How long will the effects of former coach Steve Forbes be felt? The team still has 1st Team All-Conference wing Ledarrius Brewer, so I imagine at least one more season.
Sleeper: Wofford - Losing Storm Murphy undeniably hurts. However, I love teams that played a lot of Freshman and weren't that bad. Those Freshmen are now Sophomores (Max Klesmitt, Morgan Safford, Sam Godwin). I like Wofford’s core and they could be a surprise success in the conference despite the personnel losses.
Bottom of the Barrel: Western Carolina - It's hard to do well when 11 players transferred out. Maybe the new coach will help turn things around.
Western Athletic Conference (218.7)
Favorite: New Mexico State - One of my favorite small conferences. Always a lot of weird recruits and roster makeups. The Aggies have dominated the league the last few years, even after losing coaches. I think that can continue this year. Jabari Rice and Clayton Henry are a strong backcourt pair. The transfer class is notably strong. It includes former 4-star recruits Teddy Allen (from Nebraska) and Jermaine Harris (from Rhode Island). This is another roster that's easily 10 players deep.
Runner-Up: Stephen F. Austin - What's that? The WAC just added some really fun basketball programs from the Southland too? I can't wait to see NM St. and SF Austin battle for supremacy for the next few years. SF Austin returns two All-Conference players and adds transfers from Texas A&M (Jonathan Aku) and Kansas (Latrell Jossell). Consider me excited.
Sleeper(s): Sorry, I'm picking multiple. It's looking like the WAC just leveled up in basketball. Grand Canyon has been knocking on the door as a conference favorite for years. Their fanbase already has a nationwide reputation. All-Conference PG Jovan Blacksher returns with strong transfers. There's former top 40 recruit from Arizona State, Taeshon Cherry, and former top 60 recruit from Louisville, Aidan Igiehon. A few other too. And depth. Abilene Christian was the best team in the WAC and Southland last year. They lost several of their facilitators, but three All-Defensive guards are back. If they can find some scoring, that's imposing. How about Utah Valley which brings back the WAC POY and Defensive POY Fardaws Aimaq? The rest of the roster is a little bare, but a player that dominant returning to a conference at this level counts more.
Bottom of the Barrel: Chicago State - 3rd worst team in the country last year. Only 3 players are back. I keep hearing that they are mulling a drop to D-II. From a basketball perspective, it's hard to argue against that.
Basketball's Not Their Thing
Atlantic Sun Conference (240)
Favorite: Liberty - POY Darius McGhee returns with not much else of note. They've been pretty consistent the last few years and able to rebuild, so I'll trust they have enough to do it again.
Runner-Up: Jacksonville State - Returning an All-Conference player in the back court (Darian Adams) and the front court (Brandon Huffman) is always a strong foundation.
Sleeper: Bellarmine - The Knights overachieved in their first year as a D1 school. The roster only took one big loss, so they should have enough for 1st Team All-Conference guard Dylan Penn and company to keep the upward trend.
Bottom of the Barrel: Central Arkansas - No matter what conference they move to, they're still bottom feeders in basketball.
American East Conference (243.9)
Favorite: Vermont - At this point the Catamounts have earned being the presumptive favorites. Another team may displace them for a year, but they always come right back. This year, AEC POY Ryan Davis (F) is back. All-Conference guard Ben Shungu returns too. A lot of the rotation is back, so I'm sure John Becker will turn a couple more guys into All Conference talents as always.
Runner-Up: New Hampshire - The Wildcats look like this year's challenger. Two All-Conference forwards are back. The backcourt is comprised of a couple All-Freshman guards, including last year's FOY Nick Johnson. They've got that mix of experience and potential that a team needs to make a jump.
Sleeper: Hartford - They bring back three 30+ mpg players and add a 30 mpg All-Conference guy from Coppin State (Dejuan Clayton). Good luck rattling these guys.
Bottom of the Barrel: Maine - This low in the list, the worst teams in the conferences aren't any fun to talk about. Maine's only hope is that giving 30 mpg to a Freshman (LeChaun DuHart) last year helps him reach All-Conference level this year.
Big South Conference (259.1)
Favorite: Winthrop - No one is jumping out, so even though Winthrop lost their coach and conference Player of the Year, I'm guessing that last year's best team by a healthy margin doesn't lose enough for anyone to catch up. Besides, they did hit the transfer market pretty hard.
Runner-Up: Gardner Webb - Again, I'm just sticking with last year's order. They do have All-Freshman guard D'Maurian Williams back. That's upside potential.
Sleeper: High Point - At some point having a coach of Tubby Smith's caliber has to pay off. This year they do bring back 1st Team All-Conference guard John-Michael Wright and rising Sophomore Ahmil Flowers.
Bottom of the Barrel: Charleston Southern - They lost half of a really bad core.
Horizon League (223.6)
Favorite: Detroit Mercy - High scoring guard (and coach's son) Antoine Davis is a Senior and could really run away win the conference POY award. He's bolsters by some really strong transfers.
Runner-Up: Wright State - While two All-Conference players do come back (Tanner Holden, Grant Basile), I worry that last year's best team doesn't have a way to make up for the loss of Horizon POY Loudon Love (C).
Sleeper: Milwaukee - This is an easy pick. Coach Patrick Baldwin convinced his son Patrick Baldwin Jr. - a top 10 recruit in the country - to enroll. That kind of talent is rare in the Horizon. No matter how mediocre the rest of the roster is, he can be the rising tide that lifts all boats.
2nd Sleeper: Illinois-Chicago - Sorry. I wanted to talk about UIC here. I still remember how as an assistant, coach Luke Yaklich masterminded a defensive identity shift at Michigan. This is his 2nd year at UIC. I think this year or next, he's going to get this team to jump in the conference. This year's team has four guys who averaged 30+ mpg last year for this team or their last team. He's got six more who averaged 20+ mpg. This team is deep and lost/had no All-Conference players. They finished 288th last season. I'm expecting at least 150th this season.
Bottom of the Barrel: IUPUI - One of the funner school names to say didn't have a fun offseason. New coach and three 30+ mpg guys left. This is a rebuild.
Ohio Valley Conference (251.5)
Favorite: Belmont - What's scary is that Belmont would've brought all this back even without the extra year of eligibility everyone who played last year got. Two 1st Team All-Conference players are back. In fact, only one player, who barely made the rotation, is gone. Last year's best team is likely to be even better.
Runner-Up: Murray State - The Racers have the goods to catch up to the Bruins though. They also have two 1st Team All-Conference players returning and didn't lose all that much from last year's team. In addition to that, they bring in several transfers likely to make an impact right away like Trae Hannibal from South Carolina or Carter Collins from Davidson.
Sleeper: Morehead State - Johni Broome (C) was both 1st-Team All-Conference and Freshman of the Year. He'll pair with a seasoned backcourt of Skyelar Potter and Wofford transfer Tray Hollowell. They aren't so much a sleeper are the likely 3rd or 2nd best team in the conference.
Bottom of the Barrel: UT-Martin - New coach and literally every player on last year's team is gone. That's almost hard to fathom.
Patriot League (236.9)
Favorite: Colgate - It'll take a lot more than losing the conference POY to make me bump last year's only top 160 squad (they were 89th) from the top. Two other All-Conference players (Nelly Cummings, Tucker Richardson) return in the backcourt. All Freshman Center Jeff Woodward cements the middle. Turnover shouldn't be a problem here.
Runner-Up: Boston U. - The Terriers were very middle of the pack last year but return a quartet of players who earned Patriot League superlatives last season. Marginal improvement from them would put the squad in the hunt to win the conference.
Sleeper: American - All the other teams look pretty sleepy, so I'll go with the Eagles who have the Patriot Freshman of the Year, Johnny O'Neil (F), coming back.
Bottom of the Barrel: Bucknell - Remember those years when Bucknell was pretty good? I don't think it was that long ago. Oh well, this is not one of those years.
Embarrassingly Bad
Northeast Conference (278.5)
Favorite: Wagner - It's hard to bet against the team bringing back the POY (Alex Morales) and Freshman of the Year (DeLonnie Hunt).
Runner-Up: Bryant - By far last year's best team and they still have their best player (Peter Kiss). Despite other roster defections, it's hard to drop them much.
Sleeper: Long Island University - With All-Conference forwards Eral Penn and Tyrn Flowers and transfer Isaac Kante from Hofstra (also All-Conference there), LIU should have the most imposing front court in the league. The question is if they have the backcourt talent.
Bottom of the Barrel: Central Connecticut State - Death, taxes, and CCSU as among the worst team in the country.
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (296.1)
Favorite: Morgan State - The MEAC is in disarray with defections bringing them down to only 7 teams. Morgan State is looking pretty good though. Two All-Conference guards are back and they bring in some power conference transfers.
Runner-Up: Howard - Last year didn't go according to plan. They cancelled the season after only 5 games. Touted 5-star recruit Makur Maker only played 2 of those games. I'm not even sure if Nojel Eastern even joined the team after announcing his plan to transfer there. This year is looking a bit up. Wayne Bristol Jr. can follow up on the promise he showed as a freshman a couple years ago. Much of the depth from last year's team is back...And they'll certainly be well-rested.
Bottom of the Barrel: UNC Central - Five D1 transfer and 4 JC transfers. Your guess is as good as mine what this team will look like.
Southwestern Athletic Conference (308.6)
Favorite: Texas Southern – They’ve been at the top of the league for a while. The roster isn’t especially impressive, but five 20+ mpg players are back and no other teams ever put up a fight.
Runner-Up: Southern – SWAC Freshman of the Year Terrell Williams Jr. returns along with a lot of depth.
Bottom of the Barrel: Mississippi Valley State – Last year’s worst team in the country isn’t getting that much better.
Southland Conference (311.9)
Favorite: Nicholls State - I have a weird affection for the Colonels. They always hit the transfer market so hard and are packed with reclamation projects. It rarely works out as well as they hope but this year may be different. The WAC picked off most of the best squads from the Southland. Only two remaining teams placed in the top 300 last season and Nicholls was by far the best at 196th. As always, they are heavy with D1 transfers. They'll team up with last year's Newcomer of the Year and 1st-Team All-Conference PG Ty Gordon. It really feels like this is the Colonel's conference now.
Runner-Up: Southeast Louisiana - As I mentioned. The rest of the conference is pretty poor. SE Louisiana finished 336th out of 357 last year, and they look like the second-best team. Most of that's because they bring back most of their core players and have a couple transfers. Not exciting, but it should be enough.
Sleeper: Texas A&M Corpus Christi - Per tradition, I'm picking the Islanders here, not because I really think they are a sleeper. No team in in the Southland is. They're all bad. I just use this as a reminder to look up their campus which I think is among the coolest in the country. That said, three 30 mpg players return and they are lousy with JC transfers. They could certainly be a lot better this year.
Bottom of the Barrel: Incarnate Word - Oof. I guess bringing in RJ Glasper from Oral Roberts will help...That's all I've got.
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