It's time for another edition of my Emmy predictions. This is a tradition of mine built on two pillars:
1) Using far more detail than anyone needs.
2) Ending up with predictions that are only moderately above average in accuracy.
It's this mix of content without quality that I really think sets me apart. My goal in this and most activities on this blog is to defend my reasoning more than getting everything right. I'd much rather hear "I get why he was thinking that" than "he's always right". Wait, scratch that. That's a lie. I'm content with the former and striving for the latter. Regardless, let's see how it goes.
Note: In all categories I list the nominees from most to least likely to win in bold in the paragraph.
In most acting categories, the nominees choose a submission episode. Emmy voters are instructed to base their picks only on the submission episodes rather than for the entire season. In the pre-streaming days, the submission episode was a significant indicator of who would win. In recent years, it has been rendered insignificant. No one wins anymore for having a great submission episode. I will not base my predictions on the submission episode either, since it tends to point me the wrong way.
* Indicates a show that I haven't watched this season.
# Indicates a show I've seen before, not this season.
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Comedy Series
*Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso) (Apple TV+)
It has been so long since this field was strong that I don’t even know how to pick it. 2011 is the last time I looked at the whole field and didn’t have a strong complaint about anyone. For the purpose of the winner though, it is a two-man race. Bill Hader won in 2018 and 2019 and hasn’t had a season since. Jason Sudeikis won last year. Since 2015, the first year of the plurality vote for the Emmys*, the winner of this award has been on the serious side. Only Eugene Levy and Jason Sudeikis have had purely comedic performances win. That would lean Hader for Barry, but Sudeikis got to mix in more darkness this season. Ted Lasso is a series front runner. Sudeikis is just as liked in the business as Hader. I’m going with an “all eggs in one basket” approach to my picks this year.
*Since 2015, everyone votes for a single nominee and the one with the most votes, not necessarily a majority, wins. Before that, I believe it was a ranked choice ballot, which favors general support over smaller diehard support.
*Bill Hader (Barry) (HBO/HBO Max)
Hader has consecutive wins. Time and time again, Emmy voters have proven that they treat this award as “Best acting of any kind that is in a Comedy Series” not “Best Comedic acting in a series”. Even by that definition, I’d give Sudeikis the edge due to the range of the performance, but the intensity of Hader’s work sets it apart. From a strategic perspective, his is the most unique performance in the list. I could see Short and Martin stealing way more votes from Sudeikis than Glover from Hader. I’m just leaning on the belief that Barry is generally falling out of favor. It’s not reflected in the nominations, exactly, but I think it will show in the wins.
*Steve Martin (Only Murders In The Building) (Hulu)
Steve Martin hasn’t won an Emmy since the one he shared for writing on the Smothers Brothers in 1969. Under the right circumstances, I could see a wave vote coming to award him the way it happened for Henry Winkler in 2018. The big difference is that he technically does have a win already, and despite how legendary Steve Martin is, you can’t say anything about his Emmy history as indignant as “He never won an Emmy for playing the Fonz?!” If someone from Only Murders wins, it’s him, but it just doesn’t seem like the support is there.
*Martin Short (Only Murders In The Building) (Hulu)
Vote split and Martin Short is a little less of a legend than Steve Martin.
*Donald Glover (Atlanta) (FX)
Bill Hader already beat him in 2019, and while I think support for Barry has lessened, I know it’s cratered for Atlanta.
*Nicholas Hoult (The Great) (Hulu)
God I love this nomination. I just don’t see a path for it to happen. Not after he failed to get nominated for Season 1 and the series didn’t rise significantly in awareness in Season 2.
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series
*Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game) (Netflix)
I’m going back on what I said about not believing in Squid Game. With a Succession vote split impacting things, here’s a place that Squid Game can sneak a win. This is a tight race though. Either Succession actor alone would win.
*Brian Cox (Succession) (HBO/HBO Max)
I’m still rather surprised that Strong beat him two years ago. If I had any courage, I’d go ahead and pick Cox to win despite the vote split potential.
*Jeremy Strong (Succession) (HBO/HBO Max)
That New Yorker profile really did a number on Strong’s reputation. I think that was enough to mess with the power balance between him and Cox with Emmy voters. Still, he did win for season 2, so I can’t put him too far down the list.
*Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) (AMC)
Emmy voters just aren’t sentimental and this isn’t BCS’s final season anyway. Odenkirk absolutely deserves to win, but I remain unconvinced that things have changed enough for him to go from snubbed to winning.
*Adam Scott (Severance) (Apple TV+)
For as loved as Severance was, it’s remarkable how little of the conversation centered on Adam Scott. He’s a decade away from people realizing he doesn’t have an Emmy yet.
*Jason Bateman (Ozark) (Netflix)
Bateman has lost to a variety of actors and in weaker fields. Ozark ended pretty quietly. He should just keep shining that Directing Emmy he won a few years ago.
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie
*Michael Keaton (Dopesick) (Hulu)
This is one of the easy ones. Keaton has been collecting hardware for this for nearly a year now. People love him. He’s never won an Oscar or an Emmy somehow. In addition to Dopesick being a juggernaut this year, there aren’t any White Lotus nominees here to spoil things.
*Colin Firth (The Staircase) (HBO/HBO Max)
Perhaps some true crime fandom bleeds into the votes?
*Sebastian Stan (Pam & Tommy) (Hulu)
Unlike a lot of these other nominees, Stan’s show actually got a Limited Series nomination. That must count for something.
*Andrew Garfield (Under The Banner Of Heaven) (FX)
He’s fresh off an Oscar nomination. That must count for something.
*Oscar Isaac (Scenes From A Marriage) (HBO/HBO Max)
Dude, I’m still trying to figure out how he wasn’t nominated for Show Me A Hero in 2015. Emmy voters are slow on Oscar Isaac.
*Himesh Patel (Station Eleven) (HBO/HBO Max)
Station Eleven was just too ignored. It also has the Moonlight problem where the star is actually multiple people playing the same person. The star is the combo ticket of Mackenzie Davis and Matilda Lawler. Himesh Patel almost feels supporting, even though he is rightfully a lead. He’d also get my vote.
Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy Series
*Jean Smart (Hacks) (HBO/HBO Max)
This is a Julia Louise-Dreyfus in Veep situation. We’re a couple seasons away from even thinking about someone else winning this. They love Jean Smart too much.
*Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) (ABC)
I don’t think Jean Smart is untouchable. The Abbott Elementary love is rumbling loudly. I’m starting to question my Ted Lasso lean overall. And there’s a chance that Abbott thumps the field, and Quinta Brunso could record a Phoebe Waller-Bridge-sized haul.
*Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant) (HBO/HBO Max)
It’s down to Smart and Brunson. Cuoco already lost to Smart once. While she’s still good in The Flight Attendant, it was less of a sensation in season 2.
*Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) (Prime Video)
Former winner but otherwise Maisel is running on fumes with the Emmys.
Issa Rae (Insecure) (HBO/HBO Max)
It was the final season and she has been nominated before.
*Elle Fanning (The Great) (Hulu)
I’m just thrilled that she’s nominated. The Great is just too offbeat and underwatched to believe she could win.
Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama Series
*Zendaya (Euphoria) (HBO/HBO Max)
Zendaya won for the first season when that was the only major nomination for Euphoria that year. This year, Euphoria took the leap from “show to write think pieces about” to “genuine hit”. Zendaya’s star has only risen as well. I just can’t imagine how the vote could break where anyone other than her wins.
*Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets) (Showtime)
The only real competition Zendaya has is Melanie Lynskey, and sadly, I think the two shows in this list with the most fan overlap is Euphoria and Yellowjackets. I’d be thrilled to see Lynskey win. She’s generally beloved and plays the social media game exquisitely. It’s possible she could win, but it feels like steep odds.
*Laura Linney (Ozark) (Netflix)
It is a little odd that Ozark love in other years never led to a Laura Linney win. Emmy voters love Laura Linney. She has 4 wins from being on 4 different series. She hasn’t won for Ozark yet. Do they decide to complete her set this year? Given how quietly Ozark ended, I doubt it.
*Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show) (Apple TV+)
At the end of the day, she’s still Reese Witherspoon. I remain flabbergasted by her season 1 snub, even though I wouldn’t’ve picked her. The Morning Show has already faded and this nomination reflects an adherently shallow field more than anything.
*Jodie Comer (Killing Eve) (BBC America)
*Sandra Oh (Killing Eve) (BBC America)
Killing Eve ended this year. This is proof that people remembered liking the show and little else.
Outstanding Lead Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie
*Amanda Seyfried (The Dropout) (Hulu)
Seyfried is winning this. There’s not much else to say. She’s the absolute lead of her show. She got to play a range of emotions. She got to master a weird Elizabeth Holmes voice. The show was widely supported by Emmy voters. I can’t point to anything to detract from her odds.
*Julia Garner (Inventing Anna) (Netflix)
If Seyfried loses, it’s because Emmy voter just want to see the world burn. If that’s the case, Julia Garner’s Inventing Anna performance is the most “water cooler” performance in the category. Let’s just ignore that it’s actually a supporting performance.
*Margaret Qualley (MAID) (Netflix)
Qualley dominated her show more than anyone else in this field. If Seyfried isn’t the lock I think she is, maybe voters will go by screentime.
*Lily James (Pam & Tommy) (Hulu)
I love Lily James. I think she does great work. Much like how people could never get past Pamela Anderson’s boobs in the 90s, I think voters won’t get past the physical transformation when it comes time to vote. The thing they’ll award is the makeup.
*Toni Collette (The Staircase) (HBO/HBO Max)
Who would really be against Collette getting another Emmy? She should’ve been supporting though.
*Sarah Paulson (Impeachment: American Crime Story) (FX)
Impeachment landed with a thud. This is a compulsory vote. Voters see the name Sarah Paulson and have to select it.
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