Emmy Picks: Directing

It's time for another edition of my Emmy predictions. This is a tradition of mine built on two pillars:

1) Using far more detail than anyone needs.

2) Ending up with predictions that are only moderately above average in accuracy.

 

It's this mix of content without quality that I really think sets me apart. My goal in this and most activities on this blog is to defend my reasoning more than getting everything right. I'd much rather hear "I get why he was thinking that" than "he's always right". Wait, scratch that. That's a lie. I'm content with the former and striving for the latter. Regardless, let's see how it goes.

 

Note: In all categories I list the nominees from most to least likely to win in bold in the paragraph.

 

* Indicates a show that I haven't watched this season.

# Indicates a show I've seen before, not this season.

 

Outstanding Directing For A Comedy Series

*MJ Delaney (Ted Lasso - "No Weddings And A Funeral") (Apple TV+)

This is one of the few awards Ted Lasso lost last year. Much of that had to do with 3 episodes getting nominated for the show without a clear favorite for people to back. Remember, at the nomination stage, people can select as many choices as they want. For the award phase it’s a single pick and plurality, not necessarily majority, wins. That makes vote splits a real concern. So, while Ted Lasso was one of the most dominant series winners ever last season, it was still vulnerable to vote splits. And Hacks won this award last year as a result. This is the only Ted Lasso nominee in the category this year though. Even if I don’t think Ted Lasso is as strong this year as last, it’s in better position to win this year.

 

*Jamie Babbit (Only Murders In The Building - "True Crime") (Hulu)

Check it. Historically, if voters aren’t rubber-stamping the Series winner here, they like to go with series pilots. That’s because those are the episodes that set the visual template for the shows and have the most time to shoot. “True Crime” is the only series pilot episode in this field this year, so if anything is taking Ted Lasso down, it’s clearly the episode to look to.

 

*Lucia Aniello (Hacks - "There Will Be Blood") (HBO/HBO Max)

OK. Hacks did win last year. Here’s the thing though. Only 3 times in the last 18 years has this award gone to an episode that wasn’t a pilot or the Outstanding Comedy Series winner. One was a super-sized episode of The Office in season 5 (2009). The other two (Atlanta in 2017 and Transparent in 2016) came in years when the series winner (Veep) had 3 episodes nominated, splitting the vote. If you believe that Hacks is the favorite to win the Outstanding Comedy Series award this year, despite losing last year, then go ahead and pick this to win here. Otherwise, is the Hacks season 2 premiere really special enough to beat steep odds?

 

*Bill Hader (Barry - "710N") (HBO/HBO Max)

Barry just doesn’t feel like an ascendent series. It didn’t win here for seasons 1 or 2. It’s not the series award favorite. Vote splitting isn’t a concern for any series favorites here. I’m just not seeing the path for Barry to win this.

 

*Cherien Dabis (Only Murders In The Building - "The Boy From 6B") (Hulu)

As I said, pilots tend to be favored here, so I’m more comfortable picking that than this Only Murders option. Also, I suspect this episode told from the perspective of a deaf character will be viewed as more of a writing showcase.

 

*Hiro Murai (Atlanta - "New Jazz") (FX)

Atlanta did win this award back in 2017. However, I do think it matters that Donald Glover directed that episode as opposed to Hiro Murai. That shouldn’t matter, but it will. Also, this season wasn’t embraced as much as past seasons.

 

Mary Lou Belli (The Ms. Pat Show - "Baby Daddy Groundhog Day") (BET+)

I’m going to recycle a stat I used last year.

The last non-pilot, not series contender to win this was an episode of Dream On in 1993. So, I don’t see this happening.

 

Outstanding Directing For A Drama Series

*Mark Mylod (Succession - "All The Bells Say") (HBO/HBO Max)

This one is incredibly difficult to pick. Succession is the clear Series frontrunner. And it did win in season 2 despite having 2 episodes nominated. That said, 2 other shows had multiple episodes nominated that year and the overall series competition is much stiffer this year. Oh, and 3 Succession episodes are nominated this time, not 2. As I’ll say many times though, vote splitting is only a problem if there isn’t a clear pecking order. In my opinion, “All the Bells Say”, the season 3 finale, is the clear top pick of Succession episodes. It has several of the biggest moments of the season and, voters in this category tend to favor either season premiers or culmination episodes (typically a season finale). I’m playing my gut and sticking with this.

 

*Ben Stiller (Severance - "The We We Are") (Apple TV+)

If vote splitting causes a problem for Succession – a very very real possibility – the Severance finale makes the most sense. It’s a ticking clock episode that ramps up tension, completes a lot of story arcs, and ends brilliantly. My only fear is that Severance might be more popular on Twitter than with the overall voting body.

 

*Hwang Dong-hyuk (Squid Game - "Red Light, Green Light") (Netflix)

The biggest gamble in my picks this year is that I don’t believe in Squid Game as much as other people seem to. It was a phenomenon that everyone watched, and Emmy voters in recent years have proven that they only watch a couple shows then vote for them across the board. So, if I’m missing, I’m going to miss big on this. Anyway, this is the pilot of Squid Game. In the Comedy Series field, that helps a lot, because someone can watch just that episode and know what’s going on. So a proper pilot does really well. Another thing that could help Squid Game: we’ve never seen how a popular non-English series does here. Since people can’t understand what’s being said, will they credit even more to the direction? Again, I just don’t believe in Squid Game. There’s not enough vote splitting to clear a path for it and its major nomination haul is low for a frontrunner.

 

*Jason Bateman (Ozark - "A Hard Way To Go") (Netflix)

I think this is where the second tier of nominees begin. Ozark does have a surprise win here back in 2019, but that had as much to do with Game of Thrones vote splitting as anything. Ozark ended pretty quietly as a series, lost in the avalanche of April and May programming. I don’t think Netflix set it up well for success.

 

*Karyn Kusama (Yellowjackets - "Pilot") (Showtime)

I simply don’t know how niche this show is. It’s been a while since Showtime was a player here, and as successful as Yellowjackets was, I believe the Dexter sequel series still beat it in the ratings every week. So, is the nomination the win for Yellowjackets? I could point to the LOST pilot winning back in 2005 as evidence that a mystery box hit that starts with a plane crash can win this, but that’s a massively misleading comparison.

 

*Lorene Scafaria (Succession - "Too Much Birthday") (HBO/HBO Max)

*Cathy Yan (Succession - "The Disruption") (HBO/HBO Max)

I can’t imagine there are many people who would pick Succession for this award who would pick one of these episodes over “All the Bells Say”. Even if I’m wrong, would there really be enough votes to beat “All the Bells Say” and have the plurality among all 7 nominees? Not likely.

 

Outstanding Directing For A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie

*Mike White (The White Lotus) (HBO/HBO Max)

At this point, the series matters more than the episode. When I get to submission episodes for actors in a later section, I’ll likely repeat that often. No matter what the nomination says, with all else the same, people are selecting the show they like the best, not the episode in question. However, one place where that doesn’t appear to be true is Limited Series. If the same person writes or directs the entire series, then the whole series and not just a single episode gets nominated. So, you’ll notice all of The White Lotus is a single nomination yet the other nominees are individual episodes. That does seem to matter. The best example of this is 2020, when Unorthodox as a full series beat the dominant Watchmen, which had several individual episodes nominated. Or look to 2016 when The Night Manager beat the dominant American Crime Story: The People vs. O.J. Simpson. And I haven’t even gotten to the fact that I think The White Lotus is the Outstanding Limited Series frontrunner anyway. All this means I feel pretty good for Mike White here.

 

*Danny Strong (Dopesick - "The People vs. Purdue Pharma") (Hulu)

The counter to my White Lotus argument is that when Unorthodox and The Night Manager won this award, the Limited Series frontrunner had three episodes nominated, splitting the vote and opening a path. Dopesick only has this one nomination, which means voters are functionally voting for the entire series here. That’s why I have it second. I’m giving The White Lotus the series edge, so I’m giving it the directing edge too.

 

*Michael Showalter (The Dropout - "Green Juice") (Hulu)

*Francesca Gregorini (The Dropout - "Iron Sisters") (Hulu)

Vote split. Neither episode is the premier or finale. The Dropout isn’t the series award favorite. I’m just not seeing how either of these pass The White Lotus or Dopesick.

 

*John Wells (MAID - "Sky Blue") (Netflix)

*Hiro Murai (Station Eleven - "Wheel Of Fire") (HBO/HBO Max)

Is it supremely dumb that neither Maid nor Station Eleven earned series nominations? Yes. Do I think that removes them from consideration for the directing award? You betcha.