Delayed Reaction: My Octopus Teacher

Premise: A man becomes obsessed with tracking an octopus living in the ocean near his house.

 

I can't beat the tweet I sent right after I finished this: I'm not sure how My Octopus Teacher went from dull to transfixing to devastating, but it totally did. That's the roller coaster of watching this movie. It starts off as a story about director Craig Foster feeling listless. Most people feel listless with a 9 to 5 job though. He's apparently able to feel listless in a beachfront house in South Africa where he can spend all day diving and filming for a year. Let me tell you, I was not on board for this guy's weird aquatic mid-life crisis.

 

Early on, he finds an octopus that catches his attention, so he decides to track it. It becomes his obsession. He learns how to track it. He learns about its personality and get it to trust him. At some point, I realized that I was fully captivated by the story of this octopus. The film wasn't about the filmmaker anymore. It just because a type of underwater anthropology. He gets some gorgeous footage and captures some truly harrowing moments with his octopus friend.

 

Finally, as tends to happen to a creature with only a year lifespan, he captures the circle of life completing. The octopus gives birth then slowly dies, and he gets all the key moments. I was fully distraught at that point, and I didn't see that coming.

 

That's all that needs to be said about the movie. It's best not to think too hard about who this filmmaker is. It does help to know that following this octopus actually was his obsession. Had this been a Planet Earth episode, I would've felt removed. I would've assumed that they just caught some octopus footage and stitched it into a manufactured narrative. Knowing that this guy was so invested gives me permission to be so invested. And I was. I think back to the pilot episode of Community. Jeff Winger shows that if he names his pencil then breaks the pencil, we'll naturally feel worse about breaking the pencil. My Octopus Teacher is the same idea. I don't care about octop...octopi, octopuses...I don't care about any random octopus. But, when I know it's his octopus, I'm fully invested in it.

 

Anyway, it's a good, short, unassuming little nature doc. When it wins the Documentary Oscar, I won't complain.

 

Verdict: Strongly Recommend

Delayed Reaction: The White Tiger

Premise: An enterprising Indian underclassman schemes his way to becoming a successful businessman.

 

Apparently, there's a novel this is based on, and as is my tradition, this is where I say I've never read it and know nothing about it. Based on the movie, I'm assuming it's a long novel though. The White Tiger is an expansive tale that covers years of the protagonist's (Balram, played by Adarsh Gourav) life. It covers his early days living in a poor village and how he turns a few opportunities into a job with a wealthy family as a driver. From there, a mix of hard work and just plain being an asshole gets him a cushy job working for the family out of Delhi. He constantly pushes up against the constraints of his caste before committing a truly heinous act that gets him the success he dreams of. The whole story is unwieldy. I get why this earned a screenplay Oscar nomination this year. Balram's tireless narration has to explain virtually the entire caste and economic system of India while also telling his own unique story. And even still, the movie plays like it's only an adaptation of the first third of a much larger story.

 

I felt a little cheated by the setup of the movie. It promises something more grandiose than I actually got. The murder he's wanted for? Nothing came of it. The murder he's forced to take credit for? Also, nothing. His rise as a businessman? Told via montage in a few minutes at the end. It's sort of like ending Citizen Kane right as he makes his first paper a success but still keeping the Rosebud stuff. I wish I hadn't been promised all that early on, because it did make me watch the movie as more of a ticking clock or checklist than something to enjoy in the moment. It would be an interesting double-feature with There Will Be Blood, actually. Both good looking, dirty movies with strong central performances and about compromised morality for financial success. They even make an annoying story jump at the end.

 

I really appreciated this as a glimpse into modern India. It shows how the tremendous wealth mixes with the poverty of the lower classes. I think it does as good a job as anything I've seen describing the caste system. I'm used to the ways that the U.S. can have great wealth living next to relative poverty. It's interesting seeing how that looks in other countries. I love the ways that Balram rejects tradition - his grandmother's control over the family; his arranged marriage. His employer, Ashok (Rajkummar Rao) and his wife, Pinky (Priyanka Chopra Jonas), are great depictions of the new generation of wealth. They claim to reject many of the old notions of caste and how to treat one's servants, yet, they still keep the servants and mistreat them when convenient. They just also give speeches about how it's wrong. Getting to the end of the film, when Balsam speaks of how he treats his employees right, one wonders how many economic setbacks Balsam is from reneging on those promises he made to be better.

 

I'll admit that I missed some of the satire elements I'm told are in the movie. Perhaps those were more in the book, then people saw them in the movie. Or, maybe people just think that every story about someone succeeding in a capitalistic structure through luck or misdeed is satire. I'm not sure. It's a great story of the ways that an abused capitalistic structure can make a success out of someone. I mean, he literally makes his fortune from stolen government bribe money, which speaks to the cronyism of the structure.

 

Verdict: Weakly Recommend

Delayed Reaction: Wolfwalkers

Premise: An Irish girl in magical medieval times discovers a pack of wolves in which some members have both wolf and human bodies.

 

I've come to appreciate the annual tradition of the animated movie that people champion because they are tired of Disney always winning the Oscar. Your Klauses, Anomalisas, and Kubo and the Two Strings-s. To date, only Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse has successfully ridden that support to an Oscar win over Disney. I get it. It's boring that Disney (and Pixar in particular) wins so reflexively. If I'm being honest though, more often than not, I like the Frozen over The Wind Rises. Preferring ParaNorman to Brave is pretty uncommon. I do still like the movies though. So, don't draw the wrong conclusion when I say that I think it's no competition between Wolfwalkers and Soul this year. I've got Soul easily ahead. Wolfwalkers is still good too.

 

It's surprising that I didn't get in earlier on Tomm Moore's "Irish Folklore trilogy" earlier. I'm a huge fan of Celtic music and Irish accents. You'd think The Secret of Kells or Song of the Sea would've caught my attention earlier. I'm definitely more motivated to check them out now. Wolfwalkers is a distinctly beautiful movie. One thing I can say against the Pixar catalog is that they all look the same. The same computers and technology went into all of them. Wolfwalkers looks very different. Chaotic but crisp. The detail doesn't go into looking realistic. I really enjoyed that. I miss proper 2-D animation sometimes.

 

The story is a slant on something I've seen a dozen times before. It's an Irish Brave of sorts with the young huntress female lead and animal transformations. It's got a nice message though, so I'm not complaining.

 

The danger of these movies that people champion is that they're often talked up too much. People get so excited about a good non-Disney animated movie and have to work so hard to be heard over all the Disney noise, that by the time I get around to seeing them, I'm disappointed that they aren't game changers. Wolfwalkers is a really good little movie. I imagine parents (or childless adults) tired of watching the same Disney animated movies over and over will appreciate the change or pace.

 

Verdict: Weakly Recommend

Delayed Reaction: The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Premise: Billie Holiday is a famous black singer who the government is determined to take down by using her drug addiction to their advantage.

 

I'm going to take the easy way out and say that The US vs. Billie Holiday has many of the same strengths and weaknesses as last year's Judy, except maybe even more so. It's held up by Andra Day's Golden Globe winning performance. She is very good in this. If watched as just a character piece, the movie doesn't disappoint. It follows a decade in Holiday's life and shows her deterioration well. I had no memory of the song "Strange Fruit" going into this movie, and they build it up so much. It's not "Shallow" in A star is Born, but when they finally got to her singing it, that was quite a moment.

 

The movie is scattered and uneven though. It insists on framing much of it as an interview. I'm not sure why a straightforward narrative wasn't an option. The story has a lot of dips and lulls. And, I never had a great sense of why the FBI was going so hard after her for singing that song. So, Garrett Hedlund came off as more of a mustache curler than I think they intended.

 

The Oscar nominations will be out before I post this to prove me right or wrong, but The United States vs. Billie Holiday sure feels like more of a Stan & Ollie than a real contender to me. Still, Andra Day alone nearly makes it worth the time.

 

Verdict: Weakly Don't Recommend

Movie Reaction: The Father

Formula: Amour / Unsane

 

I don't think I'm alone when I say that the thing that scares me the most about aging is my mind deteriorating. My body has never been my temple, so I'm fine with more frequent injuries and general lethargy. It's the idea of being a doddering that fool worries me. I'm proud of the fact that I'm not a dick to people, but if I lose track of time and place, I can see how I'd get frustrated and lash out too. This ties really close to my other fear that I'm actually living in a mental hospital and imagining the life I'm living now. In other words, The Father is more of a horror movie than many horror movies I've seen.

 

The basic description of the movie is pretty simple. Anthony Hopkins plays an elderly man named Anthony whose mind is failing him. He's jumbling timelines and people in his head. While he always seems to be in the same flat, he can't ever recall whether it's his flat, his daughter Anne's (Olivia Colman) flat, or even a doctor's office. So, it's just a movie about him trying to make sense of a day or days or months at a time. It's hard to get deeper about the plot though, because the events are jumbled to reflect how he's experiencing time. The way different people look will change. The events in his life change. One minute he'll be living with his daughter and her husband. The next, he'll be living on his own and Anne will be telling him that she's moving to Paris. The movie is actually a lot like mother! in the way that everyone seems to know the world better than Anthony does. The storytelling is slick though. Even though I couldn't tell you the exact series of events or which people he was recognizing properly by the end, I understood the overall story. The movie successfully confuses Anthony without feeling like it's deceiving the audience, which is not what I expected. It would be very easy to make this movie like a paranoid thriller. Instead, the audience knows early on that nothing suspect is happening. I had sympathy for Anthony the whole time. There is a little room for interpretation though. For example, sometimes Anne has a husband (played by two different actors). Other times, she's divorced and moving to Paris. I'm not exactly sure what her situation actually is. I only know that she has a desire to take care of her father. That's all that really matters. And, there are a few moments that make me suspicious of there being some elder abuse going on. Those moment could just as easily be him panicking in confusion though.

 

This is a movie in which every Oscar nomination not only makes sense but feels exactly correct. Hopkins and Colman are both tremendous in this. Hopkins is so believable in his confusion and attempts to mask the confusion at any given moment. Colman wears her frustration and sadness well. It's heartbreaking seeing the few moment when Anthony is cognizant enough to thank his daughter for her help, and Colman sells those infrequent occurrences as enough to keep her going. The movie is based on a play that's also written by co-writer/director Florian Zeller. I'm not sure how else someone could keep track of the narrative thread of the movie without being so integral to its creation. Perhaps the biggest stars of the movie are the production design and film editing (also both nominated). Most of the film occurs in a single apartment, and they do a marvelous job changing it so that it can be numerous places at once. A moved picture or new chair could indicate any number of time or location shifts even though we remain in the same room. That goes hand-in-hand with the film editing which creates a circular logic to most scenes. Like Anthony, I often lost track of how one scene transitioned to a completely different scene. It's almost like trying to remember the start of a dream.

 

I'm sure some part of it is just my joy of seeing anything in a theater these days, but I liked The Father significantly more than I expected. Despite the few locations and the fact that it's based on a play, the film felt very cinematic: so much so that I struggle to see how it would work as well as a play. Hopkins, Colman, and the rest of the small cast (including Imogen Poots, Olivia Williams, and Rufus Sewell) are tremendous. This wasn't the emotional slog I expected, because Hopkins is so lively. It's often hard to tell if moments should be funny or sad because of how well Hopkins plays them. This is rapidly moving up my chart of what I want to win Best Picture this year.

 

Verdict: Strongly Recommend

Delayed Reaction: I Care a Lot

Premise: An elder care guardian con woman (Rosamund Pike) cons the wrong elderly woman and suffers the consequences.

 

It was nice, the degree to which I didn't realize what kind of movie this was. I knew the part about Pike playing a woman, Marla, who cons judges into giving her guardianship of elders in order to rob their estates blind. I didn't realize that is turns into a health care reverse-John Wick. I even thought this was a failed Oscar play. While I'm sure some people will try to see this as a lurking contender, it's really not.

 

This movie is a lot of fun. It starts off running us through Marla's whole scheme, from finding the morally compromised doctor who will declare an elderly patient incompetent to take care of themselves, to selling off all their property, and ultimately to trapping them in a nursing home with no method to communicate to the outside world. At that point, I'm expecting this to be a movie about maybe a nosey reporter or someone exposing her. Instead, the movie jumps right to the Russian mob. From there, it's a movie about a battle of wits between Marla and Peter Dinklage as the Russian mob boss.

 

While Rosamund Pike is a wonderfully talented actress who can do many things, it's clear that her default role has become these perfectly composed monsters like in this or Gone Girl. There's something about how perfectly each hair is in place in this that told me everything I needed to know about Marla. This isn't quite as nuanced a role as in Gone Girl, since she's pretty much just a villain. I'm always a fan of roles that Peter Dinklage gets just because he's a good actor. It's fun because he's a villain too, just in a different way: imposing despite his size. Dianne Wiest is wonderful as Dinklage's mother who is put into Marla's nursing home. I love seeing how she slowly reveals herself. Initially, she's just a nice, confused old lady, then she brings BDE when she realizes that Marla doesn't know who she's messing with.

 

I think the plausibility of Marla's racket dulled a lot of my entertainment with the movie. Too often I thought about if this could happen to me in 40 years, which worried me to the point of not focusing on the movie. This might be too real. And the movie lost me toward the end when it starts getting into a lot of the "capitalist America is one big scheme" stuff. I got that before they spelled it out. More importantly, I wish this battle of wits had a little more intentionality to it. Too many beats felt lucky or random to really be pleased with how well matched the two were. It's a fun movie though. Pike, Dinklage, Wiest, and the rest of the surprisingly familiar cast are quite good. I like the angle the movie came at the story from. I certainly wouldn't mind if Rosamund Pike starting making movies like these the way that Liam Nesson keeps making the same gritty revenge movies. Give me a Rosamund Pike sociopath extended universe.

 

Verdict: Weakly Recommend

Oscar Predictions: All Categories

Welcome to a very scaled down version of my Oscar predictions. The last several years, I've had a lot of fanfare leading up to the Oscars. I do thorough examinations of each category, compare results of precursor awards, and make my predictions. They aren't the most accurate predictions, but the fun for me is noticing the trends and tracking the season.

 

As you know, 2020 was a little weird. The Oscar calendar blew up. Nothing is happening when it's supposed to, and as a result, I won't be going through it with the same detail. I wasn't able to set up the time to type everything up like I normally do. More importantly, this Oscar season has been done like no other, so I'm not sure how valuable my normal evaluation will be. I still want to document my picks and reasoning though.

 

Without further ado, here we go.

 

* - Indicates a movie I've seen.

 

(In order from most to least likely to win)

Best Live-Action Short

1. *Feeling Through

2. *Two Distant Strangers

3. *The Present

4. *The Letter Room

5. *White Eye

 

I need to repeat this so much as possible. Predicting the shorts is a crapshoot. The rule of thumb in Live-Action shorts is to pick the one with the most famous people (The Neighbor's Window - 2019, Skin - 2018) or the sweetest ending (Sing - 2016, Stutterer - 2015). The most depressing option isn't as successful as people sometimes think. By the famous person logic, I should probably pick The Letter Room with Oscar Isaac. There's something skeevy about that though that I don't think people will respond to. The Present has the nice surprise happy ending. So, I may be underestimating that one. White Eye is outright depressing, so I don't see that one winning. Two Distant Strangers has a social message that Oscar voters could eat up. And it's got bigger names producing it (Not the ones who would be accepting the award though). I also found Two Distant Strangers repugnant at times, so I'm kind of picking against it to will it out of a win. That leaves me with Feeling Through. It's a very sweet movie that hints at a great message without being too message-y. It feels like the easiest one to pick. Again though, it's really hard to figure most of the short awards out.

 

Best Animated Short

1. *Opera

2. *If Anything Happens I Love You

3. *Burrow

4. *Yes-People

5. *Genius Loci

 

I'm going a little weird with this one. If Anything Happens I Love You is the favorite. That one is so depressing though. The most depressing movie hasn't won this in several years. Even though Netflix is pushing that one, I think a lot of voters will look at it as "I know I should pick If Anything Happens I Love You, but I'm going to pick ____ instead". The little punditry I've heard is people saying they actually like Opera as an oddball pick. If enough people think it's an oddball pick, then it wins. Burrow should never be counted out with the Pixar connection. I really just don't see Yes People or Genius Loci winning. Who really knows though?

 

Best Documentary Short

1. *A Concerto Is a Conversation

2. *A Love Song for Latasha

3. *Colette

4. *Do Not Split

5. *Hunger Ward

 

I may have mentioned this before. Picking the short categories are a fool's errand. A Concerto is a Conversation is generally appealing and even has an Oscar clip in it. That's Academy catnip. A Love Song for Latasha touches on BLM issues. I'm just not convinced that voters want to go for something that depressing. Colette seems bait-ier for a previous generation with the Holocaust of it all. Do Not Split is actually my favorite of them. I hope Oscar voters agree, but I think the way the ending peters out won't work for a lot of people. And, Hunger Ward is just so fucking brutal. Like, seriously, so brutal. Don't watch it. It can only ruin your day. Not to say it's bad. Just topically depressing. If it wins, then next year, the documentary shorts are all going to be 20 minutes of people kicking puppies.

 

Best Documentary Feature

1. *My Octopus Teacher

2. *Crip Camp

3. *Time

4. Collective

5. The Mole Agent

 

Other than losing the DGA Award to a film not nominated by the Academy, My Octopus Teacher has swept through the precursors pretty easily. It's short and weirdly emotional. It feels like the easy winner, even though there isn't a long history of nature docs winning. Crip Camp feels like the most likely challenger due to being produced by the Obamas. Maybe Oscar voters really are that lazy. Time ties into BLM issues, and from everything I hear, it's quite good. There really isn't a long history here of Oscar voters getting clever though. Collective has the double nomination, but that didn't help Honeyland last year. I have no idea what The Mole Agent is and I think the voters will feel the same way.

 

Best Production Design

1. *Mank

2. *The Father

3. News of the World

4. *Tenet

5. *Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

 

This is looking like the easiest place to award something to Mank which is the nominations leader for the Oscars. It's managed to win both the BAFTA and Art Director's Guild Awards. That's no guarantee of Oscar victory. In the last 20 years Gladiator, Inception, and The Favourite have won both precursor awards and lost the Oscar. But it's still good reason to call it the favorite for the Oscar. If anything is lurking for the upset, look to The Father, which is the easiest movie for Oscar voters to identify production design, the way it repurposes the same apartment for numerous purposes throughout the film. I sure am worried about it not even getting an ADG nomination though. After those two, News of the World is the only other movie to be nominated for both the BAFTA and ADG awards. Tenet did win the Fantasy Production Design award from the ADG. And Ma Rainey's Black Bottom has a distinct and loud 1920s look. It's hard to see how any of those three have enough momentum to overtake Mank or The Father.

 

Best Visual Effects

1. *Tenet

2. *Mulan

3. *The Midnight Sky

4. Love and Monsters

5. *The One and Only Ivan

 

No category was more obviously affected by the lack of blockbuster releases this year. Nearly every expensive, effects-heavy film held off until the movie theaters could open back up. That's how we end up with something like The One and Only Ivan being remembered by voters for the award. When there's a Best Picture nominee here, you can normally pencil that in as the winner, but none are nominated this year. There's no consensus built with the precursors either this year. So, I'll just go with the highest profile movie. Tenet is the biggest blockbuster released last year. Christopher Nolan movies have won this award before (Interstellar, Inception). And Tenet won the BAFTA award. After that, Mulan did pretty well with the Visual Effects Society awards and is the next biggest effects movie. Had The Midnight Sky been more of an Oscar player in other categories, I would give it better odds here. Love and Monsters and The One and Only Ivan are in the "just happy to be nominated" group.

 

Best Sound

1. *Sound of Metal

2. *Soul

3. *Greyhound

4. *Mank

5. News of the World

 

It's a little hard to predict this since it's the first year of the Sound Editing and Sound Mixing categories getting lumped into a single category. I figure the result will be that voters will have even less incentive to overthink this. Sound of Metal is very defined by its use of sound. It calls attention to it repeatedly. It also won the award from both BAFTA and the Cinema Audio Society (Sound Mixers guild). This is probably one of the biggest locks of the night. I'm a tad concern by Sound of Metal winning 0 Golden Reels (the Sound Editors Guild awards), but Oscar voters have never been that beholden to these guilds. I guess Soul is the next most likely to win, given how much the movie is about music. Greyhound is a war movie, which do pretty well with the sound awards. I think it will be very hurt by the fact that no one saw it in a theater where they could feel the sound. Mank has a lot of nominations, which doesn't hurt. News of the World is certainly happy to be nominated.

 

Best Costume Design

1. *Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

2. *Mank

3. *Mulan

4. *Emma

5. Pinocchio

 

This award isn't the easiest to predict but it looks obvious in hindsight. Winning all the precursors doesn't necessarily mean it'll win the Oscar if there's something with more obvious costuming out there. Or maybe they're just a tech award goliath eating everything up. Take 2018 for example. The Favourite won the BAFTA and Period Costume award from the Costume Designers Guild. It seemed like the obvious favorite for an award that loves fancy dresses. It lost to Black Panther though, which had momentum, broad support, and even a good narrative for the actual person nominated for the award. I don't think this year has as much room for surprise. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom won both the BAFTA and Costume Designer's Guild award for Period Costume. It has some of the loudest, world-setting clothing in it. The film even has some extra juice for its perceived Best Picture snub. Mank has a decently distinctive look too. It's the leader in overall nominations. I think voters will credit the cinematography and production design more for the look of the movie, but I think there's room for Mank to win here. I'm hesitant to count Mulan out entirely. Ever since that bizarre costume win for Fantastic Beasts for 2016, I look for some Fantasy Costume Design to sneak in. And, Mulan at least won the Costume Designers Guild award for Fantasy Costuming. Fantastic Beasts lost that award, making Mulan even better credentialed for an upset. Then again, 2016 was a weak year for the category. After all, La La Land was considered the favorite and a contemporary film hasn't won for Costume Design this century. Hell, only three nominees (out of 100) for the CDG Contemporary Costume Design award have even been nominated for the Costume Oscar. So yeah. Weak year in 2016. Emma is the movie most defined by its costuming, so perhaps I'm underestimating its chances. Really, Pinocchio, which no one even knew existed before Oscar morning, is the only one I give 0% chance to win.

 

Best Makeup & Hair-styling

1. *Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

2. *Hillbilly Elegy

3. *Emma

4. *Mank

5. Pinocchio

 

This isn't a good one to look for surprises. Oscar voters are simple people here. Find a single prominent actor making a transformation on screen and you can wrap up the award for the movie. Remember how Bombshell won this last year with the first promo shot released of the movie? How about Vice getting it for that first trailer? Darkest Hour the year before. The only times it doesn't seem obvious is when there's not a prominent transformation in any of the roles (Hi, Suicide Squad win in 2016). Along with winning the BATFA Award, and Makeup and Hairstyling Guild awards for both Makeup and Hairstyling, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom has Viola Davis putting on some weight and always looking overheated in the movie. Done. Deliver it to Ma Rainey's door now. If Hillbilly Elegy was a better received film, Glen Close's makeup in particular could've helped it stand a good chance here. I think Emma and Mank have the problem where people just fold the makeup and hairstyling in it into the costuming. And, again, Pinocchio didn't even exist until Oscar morning.

 

Best Animation Feature

1. *Soul

2. *Wolfwalkers

3. *Onward

4. *Over the Moon

5. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

 

The Pixar dominance isn't slowing down this year. Soul won all the major precursors and nothing this dominant has ever failed to win the Oscar. If contrarian-minded critics get their way, the perfectly nice Wolfwalkers is the upset pick. It needed more success in the precursors though. If we think that voters are just crazy to vote for anything Pixar, Onward IS Pixar too. Hard to see how it passes Soul though. Over the Moon and A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon are this year's sacrificial lambs to fill out the category.

 

Best International Film

1. *Another Round

2. Quo Vadis, Aida?

3. Collective

4. Better Days

5. The Man Who Sold His Skin

 

Another Round got a Director nomination. That locks this up as far as I'm concerned. Quo Vadis, Aida? has also been hanging around all season. Collective did do the same thing as Honeyland last year, getting an International Film and Documentary Feature nomination. That certainly can't hurt it. I've hardly heard a thing about Better Days and The Man Who Sold His Skin, so I'm counting them out. Another Round has all the momentum though.

 

Best Original Song

1. *"Speak Now" form One Night In Miami

2. "Io si (Seen)" from The Life Ahead

3. *"Husavik" for Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Sage

4. *"Fight for You" from Judas and the Black Messiah

5. *"Hear My Voice" for The Trial of the Chicago 7

 

"Speak Now" has some Selma vibes. One Night In Miami didn't get the nomination haul it looked like it might get at one point in the season. This could be a symbolic win to show larger support. The award would even be shared with Leslie Odom Jr. If not that, maybe this is finally the year for Diane Warren, on her 12th nomination and no wins yet. So, "Io si (Seen)" has a decent chance. "Husavik" is the sentimental choice. But ask yourself, does it really feel like Oscar voters are in any hurry to give a win to a Will Ferrell comedy? Judas and the Black Messiah and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are both Best Picture nominees. That never really matters for this award though.

 

Best Original Score

1. *Soul

2. *Mank

3. News of the World

4. *Minari

5. *Da 5 Bloods

 

Soul has the BAFTA and Golden Globe awards. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross have won before. They're co-nominated with Jon Baptiste which gives them a little more credibility for the music of this score. That makes it the easy favorite. Mank and News of the World also got nominations from the Golden Globes and BAFTA, so that helps. Minari has a BAFTA nomination and really good Best Picture odds. That can't hurt it. Da 5 Bloods severely underperformed in the nominations, and it doesn't seem like people are rallying around it anymore.

 

Best Cinematography

1. *Mank

2. *Nomadland

3. *The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. *Judas and the Black Messiah

5. News of the World

 

This one is a toss-up. Mank won the Cinematographers Guild award. Nomadland won the BAFTA award. I've noticed a trend of Oscar voters spreading the wealth lately though. This feels like an easy place to make sure Mank walks away with something, and voters get to feel very worldly picking a black and white movie here. Nomadland shoots the hell out of the American West though. It wouldn't be a bad winner either. I'm not sure I see a path for The Trial of the Chicago 7, Judas and the Black Messiah, and News of the World to win.

 

Best Film Editing

1. *Sound of Metal

2. *The Father

3. *The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. *Nomadland

5. *Promising Young Woman

 

There's a decent correlation between the Sound and Film Editing awards, so I'll go with Sound of Metal, which won the BAFTA awards for Film Editing and Sound. I think The Father's editing will be credited more to its screenplay and production design, but a film editing win wouldn't be undeserved. The Trial of the Chicago 7 beat Nomadland and Sound of Metal for the Film Editors Guild Award, which was quite a surprise. It reminds me a bit of 2018, when Bohemian Rhapsody winning the guild award preluded an Oscar win. So don't count it out. As always, the Best Picture favorite lurks wherever it's nominated, so look out for Nomadland too. The only one I can't see winning is Promising Young Woman. The editing just isn't where the strength is in that movie.

 

Best Original Screenplay

1. *Promising Young Woman

2. *Minari

3. *The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. *Sound of Metal

5. *Judas and the Black Messiah

 

The screenplay categories are a little tougher than normal this year. Due to a change in the BAFTA nominations system, not as many of the same movies are nominated for their screenplay awards. The WGA Awards, with the exception of an odd 2018, are extremely good predictors of who will win the Oscar. Except, the WGA has restricted eligibility, so sometimes Oscar nominated screenplays aren't eligible for the WGA award. So, where does that leave this race? Promising Young Woman won the WGA and BAFTA awards. It's also one of the buzzier movies in the Oscar conversation this year. I worry it might be fading a bit lately, but I'll go ahead keep it as my top pick. Minari wasn't eligible for the WGA award, making it a wildcard in the race. I think Minari has a real shot at Best Picture, and I'd think it would need to win this award to win Best Picture. So, I'll call it the most likely upset due to that potential correlation. The Trial of the Chicago 7 won the Golden Globe and Aaron Sorkin is one of the most decorated Hollywood scribes out there. I have trouble seeing how, in a year decorated so much for the diversity of the nominees, the Academy could go and give this to Sorkin. Sound of Metal has a lot of technical award potential. Generally though, that kind of momentum doesn't carry up to the screenplay categories. The onscreen talent is getting all the attention for Judas and the Black Messiah.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. *The Father

2. *Nomadland

3. *Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

4. *One Night in Miami

5. *The White Tiger

 

Had The Father lost the BAFTA Award (it didn't), I would've worried more. If even the Brits don't award it, that's a red flag. It wasn't eligible for the WGA award, so I can't pull much from that. The Father got a lot of nominations overall, so there's broad support. It's also a very showy screenplay. It's hard to watch the movie and not be impressed by how it's organized. Nomadland also wasn't eligible for the WGA award, so it's also an unknown to some extent. Chloe Zhao is also nominated for director which she's likely to win. I absolutely think Nomadland is the frontrunner for Best Picture, which always makes a screenplay win a possibility. I just think the screenplay isn't what people are hurrying to award it for. The first Borat movie was also nominated and this movie did win the WGA award against all the eligible Oscar nominees. So, it's possible it could win. I just hate the idea of Borat movies winning anything. One Night and Miami and The White Tiger don't have any juice for this. I'm really thinking this is a two-movie race at the top, and even that I'm not convinced is that close.

 

Best Supporting Actor

1. *Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)

2. *Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

3. *Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)

4. *Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

5. *Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)

 

Kaluuya has won all the precursors. He looks like the surest acting winner this year. The only thing that could potentially hurt him is a vote split with co-star Lakeith Stanfield. That seems unlikely though. In that situation, Sacha Baron Cohen seems like the most likely one to slide in. Leslie Odom Jr. has been nominated by everyone too. Paul Raci was a critical darling earlier in the season but hasn't won much since. Lakeith Stanfield has a simple problem. Who is picking him over Kaluuya? That's not to say he's bad. It's just not the electric performance in the film.

 

Best Supporting Actress

1. *Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

2. *Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)

3. *Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)

4.* Amanda Seyfried (Mank)

5. *Olivia Colman (The Father)

 

One of the two most intriguing awards of the night (with Best Lead Actress). There's a good reason to pick each nominee. They should all be practicing speeches just in case. Unlike most categories, I wouldn't be surprised if any of them win. The BAFTAs did set up a frontrunner though. Youn Yuh-jung won the BAFTA and SAG awards. That make her the clear betting favorite. I have definitely said the words "Glen Close will win on her next nomination" at some point after she lost for The Wife. Even though Hillbilly Elegy was critically reviled, I just can't help but wonder if the desire to finally get Glen Close an Oscar could outweigh the quality of the performance and film. I mean, remember how Meryl Streep got her third Oscar? Maria Bakalova has stuck around all awards season, even when people insisted that she'd go away. It really is a more impressive performance than you'd expect from a supporting character in a Borat movie. When Mank first came out, I was sure Amanda Seyfried would be the one to beat here. I remain surprised that she's had so little success with the precursors. The fact that she wasn't even nominated for the SAG is really alarming. And, people just plain love Olivia Colman.

 

Best Lead Actor

1. *Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

2. *Anthony Hopkins (The Father)

3. *Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

4. *Steven Yeun (Minari)

5. *Gary Oldman (Mank)

 

This is the strongest Best Actor field in a long time. There are several deserving winners here. Chadwick Boseman certainly feels like he's wrapped this up. Winning the SAG and Golden Globe awards helps confirm it. Anthony Hopkins has a little juice after the BAFTA win. I think that has to do mostly with which side of the Atlantic the voting bodies are on. The Father is a very British movie. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom is very American. Riz Ahmed is a critical favorite, and Sound of Metal got way more Oscar attention than anyone expected. Minari has been coming on strong late, so Yeun winning as part of a dominant night wouldn't be crazy. Even though Mank has the most overall nominations, Oldman won pretty recently. I really don't see him getting a win here.

 

Best Lead Actress

1. *Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

2. *Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

3. *Frances McDormand (Nomadland)

4. *Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)

5. *Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)

 

Like Supporting Actress, everyone nominated for Lead Actress has a pretty strong case. There is no surprise winner here. That said, I feel like it's down to a 2-person race. Viola Davis won the SAG Award, which is normally the best indicator of where the Oscar is going. She has five SAG wins though for TV and film roles. Clearly SAG likes her a lot. And one of those SAG wins was for The Help in 2011, when she went on to lose the Oscar. So maybe the SAG win isn't a guarantee. And it's her only major precursor win. I want to pull the trigger and pick Carey Mulligan to win. Her only major precursor win is a Critics Choice Award, and that's not a greatly predictive group. She's been all over the season though. Promising Young Woman got a slew of major nominations. Mulligan helped her visibility with a great SNL hosting stint. I'm rooting for her to win, so I hope I'm not blinding myself about her odds. I think it's her or Davis though. Those are the best awards narrative going. Frances McDormand is the heart and soul of the Best Picture favorite. She's beloved by basically everyone in the industry. In a vacuum, she's the most likely winner, but she just got her second Oscar a couple years ago. Typically, the Academy is cautious about giving people their third awards. Remember how long it took Meryl to get the third? Andra Day won the Golden Globe against the exact same field. That is such a non-representative voting body though. I'm not sure how indicative that actually is. Vanessa Kirby hasn't missed a single nomination leading up to this. Since she hasn't won any of the precursors, I don't think she'll finally pull through with the Academy.

 

Best Director

1. *Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)

2. *Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)

3. *Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)

4. *David Fincher (Mank)

5. *Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)

 

Chloe Zhao has won everything leading up to this and the Academy is anxious to award Best Director to a female director for only the second time ever. This is about as locked up as it gets. Chung and Fennell also scratch the diversity itch, I guess. If there was any chance that Academy members don't vote for Zhao, look to one of them. Fincher will have to wait a little longer to get what's arguably a long overdue Oscar. And Vinterberg is really just happy to be nominated.

 

Best Picture

1. *Nomadland

2. *The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. *Minari

4. *Promising Young Woman

5. *Mank

6. *The Father

7. *Sound of Metal

8. *Judas and the Black Messiah

 

I'm notoriously bad at picking this award. I haven't gotten it right since Birdman in 2014. I end up being late to a changing tide. Like, last year, I could tell Parasite had momentum, but I stuck with predicting the precursor winner, 1917. Despite how odd this Oscar season and year has been, this is looking like the easiest Best Picture call since Slumdog Millionaire. I have a few reasons why.

I've found 8 awards that correlate strongly with a Best Picture win:

 

-BAFTA Award for Best Feature Film

-Golden Globe Awards for Drama Film, Comedy/Music Film, or Foreign Language Film

-PGA Award for Feature Film

-DGA Award for Best Director

-SAG Ensemble Award

-ASC Cinematography Award

-ACE Drama Film Editing and Comedy Film Editing Awards

-WGA Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay Awards

 

Each of the last 20 Best Picture winners have been nominated for at least 6 of these awards and won at least one of them. This year, that is only 3 movies: Nomadland (6 nominations, 4 wins), Promising Young Woman (6 nods, 1 win), and The Trial of the Chicago 7 (7 nods, 2 wins). I was surprised to see that Minari was far back with only 4 nods and a Golden Globe win.

 

Then there's the Big 4 Oscar nominations. All of the last 50 Best Picture winners has been nominated for at least 3 of these 4 major award categories: Director, Screenplay, Acting, and Film Editing. That further crosses off total nomination leader Mank and Judas and the Black Messiah (both missing directing and editing nominations).

 

Finally, there's the simple fact that there hasn't really been much politicking going on this year. Nomadland has been the favorite to win for months and nothing has made a strong move to overtake it.

 

That means Nomadland remains the movie to beat. It just about has this locked up. It should even do pretty well with the infamous weighted voting method for Best Picture. It won the PGA Award, which is tallied the same way.

 

The only movie that mathematically even has a realistic chance to win is the broadly crowd-pleasing The Trial of the Chicago 7. That would be such a boring winner though. And I even like that movie a lot.

 

Minari is the movie that feels like it has the most late momentum but it hasn't managed to win a single major precursor award since the Golden Globe for Non-English Film. You can claim that Parasite or Moonlight surged late, but that's inaccurate. They had a healthy mix of wins throughout the season.

 

Those are the only three I can really see winning this award. Promising Young Woman is too polarizing for the weighted ballot. Mank is missing support in the major branches. The Father showed up to the season a little too late. Sound of Metal's Cinderella run can't go much further. Judas and the Black Messiah is really only being praised for its performances. A Best Picture winner needs more than that.