It's time for another edition of my Emmy predictions. This is a tradition of mine built on two pillars:
1) Using far more detail than anyone needs.
2) Ending up with predictions that are only moderately above average in accuracy.
It's this mix of content without quality that I really think sets me apart. My goal in this and most activities on this blog is to defend my reasoning more than getting everything right. I'd much rather hear "I get why he was thinking that" than "he's always right". Wait, scratch that. That's a lie. I'm content with the former and striving for the latter. Regardless, let's see how it goes.
Note: In all categories I list the nominees from most to least likely to win in bold in the paragraph.
* Indicates a show that I haven't watched this season.
# Indicates a show I've seen before, not this season.
Outstanding Comedy Series
*Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
*Abbott Elementary (ABC)
I’m combining the blurb for these two, because it’s down to only them for the win.
A few days from now, when I’ve lost my Emmy pool yet again, I’ll look to my stubborn support of Ted Lasso as the reason. Abbott Elementary is the show I keep hearing people bring up. It’s awful reminiscent to 2019, when I dismissed all the chatter about Fleabag as being part of my twitter bubble only. Abbott Elementary has the buzz. It’s got all the major nominations it needs to be considered a threat. It won the Casting award at the Creative Arts Emmys. Since they changed from a weighted ballot to a plurality ballot in 2015, the Comedy Series winner has also won the Casting award every time. And let’s not forget ABC’s Modern Family’s historic reign over the category.
I’m sticking with Ted Lasso though. I’m not worried about how long ago the season aired. That hasn’t mattered with many shows in recent years. I don’t want to overreact to Abbott winning for Casting. That award often goes to a new series or a newly discovered series. Since 2015, the show I figured would’ve won each year did win. Maybe I’d argue that Transparent S1 in 2015 or Atlanta S1 in 2017 had a good argument to beat Veep. Even that’s a stretch though. This is the year that will either prove or disprove that Casting award correlation for me. Let’s also not overlook that for as popular as Abbott was, Ted Lasso still trounced it in nominations, including a nomination for writing, which Abbott failed to get. To counter that counter, Abbott is likely to be a Modern Family in that if it wins, it will do it on the power of the directing, so no writing nom may not matter. I guess my final point is that Ted Lasso is still beloved. There isn’t massive fatigue out there that I can detect. When Fleabag beat Veep in 2019, it was because there was noticeable Veep fatigue in its final season. Veep beat Modern Family in 2015 several years after the consensus turned away from Modern Family.
The final argument I can think of for Abbott is that it’s a network show that’s popular. That would carry a lot more weight if the first season of megahit This Is Us hadn’t lost to the theoretically smaller The Handmaid’s Tale on Hulu. Emmy voters aren’t thirsty to return to the days of network dominance.
*Only Murders In The Building (Hulu)
I suppose there’s a chance the mix of old (Steven Martin, Martin Short) and young (Selena Gomez) appeal mobilizes two large parts of the Emmy voter base and sneaks a win for Only Murders. I don’t see it, but it’s the closest thing to a third reasonable option.
*Barry (HBO/HBO Max)
It continues to be a critical hit, but it has lost twice before. Its momentum isn’t upward.
*Hacks (HBO/HBO Max)
It’s “The Jean Smart Show”. That it did so well last year was more a testament to a thin field. Good show, but not a realistic series contender.
*The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)
It has won before, which is more than the next two can say.
*What We Do In The Shadows (FX)
Look. It keeps showing up here. The fact it never gets any acting nominations hurts a lot though.
#Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO/HBO Max)
Eleven seasons. Eleven nominations. Eleven losses. This is only nominated because the Emmy voters aren’t cool enough to nominate The Great.
Outstanding Drama Series
*Succession (HBO/HBO Max)
This feels pretty easy. It won in dominating fashion for season 2. It has the might of HBO backing. It got virtually every speaking role an Emmy nomination. We can be cute about possible disrupters, but this is Succession’s to lose.
*Squid Game (Netflix)
Succession is one of the locks of the night for me. The biggest wildcard though is Squid Game. It was a global phenomenon, and thanks to Netflix’s murky viewership reports, we truly have no idea the reach or popularity of the show. However, the same has been said about Stranger Things, and Orange is the New Black, House of Cards, and many others. Sure, The Crown did win last year but that was by playing the Emmys’ game. Squid Game was an out of nowhere hit. I have little evidence that Netflix can turn a word of mouth hit into a big Emmy winner. Even The Queen’s Gambit last year nearly lost its healthy head start to Mare of Eastown. Squid Game is in the opposite situation. It has to overtake Succession, and even at its peak, it hadn’t done that.
*Severance (Apple TV+)
It showed up late in the season. Apple has proven it can run a winning campaign for both Emmys (Ted Lasso) and Oscars (CODA). I personally think Severance was more surprising than beloved, but maybe I’m wrong.
*Yellowjackets (Showtime)
Showtime has never won Drama, Comedy, or Limited Series. Not even in the years when Dexter and Weeds were regulars in the nominations. As exciting as Yellowjackets was as a story, there’s just not enough proven love to believe it can actually win.
*Better Call Saul (AMC)
Late in Breaking Bad’s run, it went from a show critics said you should watch to a genuine mainstream hit. Better Call Saul has enjoyed a lot of glowing reviews and favorable headlines, but it has never captured the attention like Breaking Bad did.
*Euphoria (HBO/HBO Max)
Even people who like Euphoria don’t like Euphoria. It definitely hit a new level or popularity this year but as many people who watched it as a sort of anthropological study as those who watched for enjoyment. Let’s also remember how stuffy Emmy voters are in general.
*Stranger Things (Netflix)
I don’t care how big the ratings get. Stranger Things is modern TV equivalent to a Marvel movie. It’s highly enjoyed but not looked at as the best show.
*Ozark (Netflix)
I’ve run out of ways to say the Ozark ended quietly.
Outstanding Limited Or Anthology Series
*The White Lotus (HBO/HBO Max)
Perhaps I think Emmy voters are cooler than they actually are. The White Lotus was a buzzy hit with a stacked cast. It weirdly felt bot frivolous and substantial; like a beach read that you later found out won the Pulitzer. It’s a show that people seemed to genuinely like.
*Dopesick (Hulu)
For as powerful as Dopesick could be at times, it does feel like the show your “supposed to like”. It’s based on actual events and is designed to trigger our injustice response. Those shows just don’t win unless they’re sensationally entertaining. Look at 2019. Chernobyl (based on true events but really designed as riveting TV) beat When They See Us (a story of injustice designed to make us mad at the injustice).
*The Dropout (Hulu)
This show is Amanda Seyfried as Elizabeth Holmes. Shows with such a singular focus and strength don’t do well in the series award.
*Pam & Tommy (Hulu)
While this overachieved in nominations and is effective at shifting sympathies over the course of the series, it still feels like a vote for Pam & Tommy is just a vote for 90s nostalgia.
*Inventing Anna (Netflix)
See what I said about The Dropout. Change names where necessary.
Outstanding Variety Talk Series
*Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO/HBO Max)
Last Week Tonight has the last 6 wins. The only reason The Daily Show’s streak before that got interrupted is because it birthed The Colbert Report as a worthy adversary. Nothing new has stepped up yet to unseat Last Week Tonight. In fact, it’s outliving its worthiest competitors.
The Daily Show With Trevor Noah (Comedy Central)
The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS)
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)
Late Night With Seth Meyers (NBC)
Trevor Noah’s Daily Show still feels like the best competitor for Last Week Tonight and it is still a long way off.
Outstanding Variety Sketch Series
*Saturday Night Live (NBC)
After 5 years winning and a thinning field, until something beats SNL, I’m picking SNL.
A Black Lady Sketch Show (HBO/HBO Max)
I still don’t think it’s ready to beat SNL, but the Directing for a Variety Series win was an encouraging sign.
Outstanding Competition Program
RuPaul's Drag Race (VH1)
6 nominations. 4 wins in the last 4 years. This is a sleepy category and there’s no reason to expect Drag Race to lose yet.
The Voice (NBC)
11 consecutive nominations. 4 wins as recently as 2017. This category has been known to return to an old winner for a year without warning.
The Amazing Race (CBS)
10 wins. Nominated every year since they created the award (19 times). We’re never that far away from another Amazing Race win.
Top Chef (Bravo)
16 nominations and the lone 2010 win. If it has won before, it can win again.
Nailed It! (Netflix)
It’s on its 4th consecutive nomination. It took Top Chef until its 4th nomination to finally win, and that’s the longest it took a show to finally win after its first nomination. I guess that puts the pressure on Nailed It!
Lizzo's Watch Out For The Big Grrrls (Prime Video)
Every couple years, a new challenger enters the race and either disappears quickly or becomes entrenched in the category. I don’t know which this is yet, but here’s a stat for you: the first season of a show has never won this award.
