It's time for another edition of my Emmy predictions. This is a tradition of mine built on two pillars:
1) Using far more detail than anyone needs.
2) Ending up with predictions that are only moderately above average in accuracy.
It's this mix of content without quality that I really think sets me apart. My goal in this and most activities on this blog is to defend my reasoning more than getting everything right. I'd much rather hear "I get why he was thinking that" than "he's always right". Wait, scratch that. That's a lie. I'm content with the former and striving for the latter. Regardless, let's see how it goes.
In most acting categories, the nominees choose a submission episode. Emmy voters are instructed to base their picks only on the submission episodes rather than for the entire season. In the pre-streaming days, the submission episode was a significant indicator of who would win. In recent years, it has been rendered insignificant. No one wins anymore for having a great submission episode. I will not base my predictions on the submission episode either, since it tends to point me the wrong way.
Note: In all categories I list the nominees from most to least likely to win in bold in the paragraph.
* Indicates a show that I haven't watched this season.
# Indicates a show I've seen before, not this season.
Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy Series
*Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso) (Apple TV+)
Goldstein won last year against 3 costars instead of “just” 2 this year. Roy Kent remains the breakout character and fan favorite of Ted Lasso. He’s fucking Hercules. Even in a world where Ted Lasso gets beat out elsewhere, Goldstein feels secure here.
*Anthony Carrigan (Barry) (HBO/HBO Max)
People cooled on the need to award Winkler after giving him the award for season 1. Carrigan has become the fan favorite of the show. If someone is going to beat Goldstein, it means the vote is split between a lot of the nominees and the man with the most dedicated base of support sneaks a win. That feels like Carrigan. The best comparison I can make is Louie Anderson’s surprise win for Baskets in 2016 when it felt like every other nominee had a strong case to win.
*Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary) (ABC)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel dominated (2018). Fleabag dominated (2019). Schitt’s Creek dominated (2020). Ted Lasso dominated (2021). Emmy voters aren’t cute or strategic about their voting anymore. When a show wins, it tends to win big. So if Abbott Elementary is the big winner, a rising tide lifts all boats and Williams, a respected veteran already at only 29, can win this.
*Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) (Prime Video)
Shalhoub won for Maisel in 2018. He won three times for Monk. He has several other nominations. Emmy voters love him. No matter how weak Maisel looks, never fully count him out.
*Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live) (NBC)
Only two SNL cast members were nominated this year. You can either look at that as a weakness (“people must’ve not liked the season much”) or a strategic strength (“no cast members to split his vote”). I lean toward the former, or at least there are enough Comedy Series nominee options that voters don’t have to look to SNL.
*Henry Winkler (Barry) (HBO/HBO Max)
He finally won his Emmy and there’s not the same impetuous to do it again.
*Toheeb Jimoh (Ted Lasso) (Apple TV+)
Jimoh definitely got a lot to do this season and really got rounded out as a character. I just don’t see him passing Goldstein though.
*Nick Mohammed (Ted Lasso) (Apple TV+)
Mohammed was a favorite of season 1 of Ted Lasso. That’s why he’s still here. He won’t win though, because people can’t help but feel betrayed by him. Villains tend to win acting awards when they are relishing it on the show. Characters who audiences are actually upset to see become villains don’t win. Emmy voting is more emotional than technical.
Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama Series
*Kieran Culkin (Succession) (HBO/HBO Max)
Anyone have an 8-sided die I can roll? This pick is brutal thanks to vote splits among series and a lack of undeniable stand outs (i.e. too many good options, not too few). Culkin did lose this in season 2 with a lot of the same people nominated. He just continues to be a favorite on the show. The fact that he got the SNL hosting gig among his cast is not nothing. I think he stands out just a little bit more.
*Billy Crudup (The Morning Show) (Apple TV+)
Crudup beat Culkin, Macgadyen, and Braun in 2020, he was even more central to this season of The Morning Show, and he’s the one who continues to understand the assignment the best on The Morning Show. Also, he’s the only person here not competing against a castmate. If someone wins this award with 25% of the vote, he makes the most sense.
*Matthew Macfadyen (Succession) (HBO/HBO Max)
If moments earn people Oscars, the closing moments of the season finale wins this. That’s more of a culmination of the writing than his performance though. Not that I expect Emmy voters to think that way.
*Oh Yeong-su (Squid Game) (Netflix)
Can I be really reductive for a moment? I assume on the Emmy ballot, there’s a picture of the actor on there. If not, I do not expect Emmy voters to remember the name of the old man on Squid Game. Even if there is a picture, how well will they be able to see it from the phone or Ipad they are probably voting on? If the ballot just said “The Old Man from Squid Game” he might be my favorite to win. As is, I don’t expect voters to know the Squid Game cast well enough. Emmy campaigning isn’t nearly as robust or coordinated as Oscar voting.
*Nicholas Braun (Succession) (HBO/HBO Max)
Braun is the most likely person from Succession to turn his notoriety into a higher level of stardom. However, Cousin Greg is still more comic relief than a multi-faceted character at this point. It’s kind of like how Chris Pratt became a movie star after Parks & Rec but Nick Offerman was the one people said it was criminal that he never got an Emmy.
*John Turturro (Severance) (Apple TV+)
*Christopher Walken (Severance) (Apple TV+)
Neither Severance cast member strikes me as more notable than the other.
*Park Hae-soo (Squid Game) (Netflix)
If a Squid Game cast member is winning, it’s Oh Yeong-su. Sorry, that’s just how it is.
Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie
*Murray Bartlett (The White Lotus) (HBO/HBO Max)
This is why the Emmy nomination ballot is dumb. There were several great Limited Series this year, but since people get unlimited picks for nominations, they just went with everyone from the couple shows they did watch (The White Lotus and Dopesick in particular) and we end up with this boring ballot. Anyway, Bartlett is both the breakout and centerpiece of The White Lotus. He’s the clearest winner.
*Seth Rogen (Pam & Tommy) (Hulu)
There’s just so much vote splitting with Dopesick and The White Lotus here and only Barlett as an obvious stand out for either. If Rogen, a very well-known star, is the only supporting nominee in actor or actress from neither of those shows, he must have some strong support. He could really sneak a win here. And it helps that he’s the lead early on in the show.
*Michael Stuhlbarg (Dopesick) (Hulu)
Stuhlbarg is a great example of, for Emmy purposes, if you are going to be a villain, be one audiences know exactly how to feel about. Stuhlbarg is a monster in Dopesick and plays it that way. He relishes every ice man moment of it. There’s no complication with the audience here, and that’s why he’s the most likely to stand out among his costars.
*Jake Lacy (The White Lotus) (HBO/HBO Max)
Lacy is on the other end of the Stuhlbarg spectrum. He seems like a straight villain early on and you leave the show feeling more complicated about him. He’s excellent in the role, but I can’t imagine people separating their feelings for the character and the performance enough to vote for him.
*Will Poulter (Dopesick) (Hulu)
I’d have no issue with him winning, but I do think a lot of his performance relies on the audience having a history with Poulter. He’s become a tremendous onscreen asshole in recent years, and the power of his performance in Dopesick is that he’s set up as another asshole and turns sympathetic. I suspect the overlap of Dopesick fans and people who remember the movie Detroit is low.
*Peter Sarsgaard (Dopesick) (Hulu)
Sarsgaard strikes me as the kind of reliable utility actor who we don’t notice has no awards until he’s at least 60. Kind of like JK Simmons, Henry Winkler, and Michael Keaton. He’s got a decade before voters take notice.
*Steve Zahn (The White Lotus) (HBO/HBO Max)
There are just more compelling performances from his costars.
Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series
*Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso) (Apple TV+)
You might’ve heard me say this before, but Emmy voters aren’t clever, especially lately. They vote by inertia. Waddingham won last year. She was closer to a lead in season 2. Ted Lasso remains the comedy series favorite. There’s no reason to pick against her.
*Janelle James (Abbott Elementary) (ABC)
I’m a bit on an island with James in that I think she’s fine on Abbott Elementary but everyone else thinks she’s incredible. Again, if Abbott manages to unseat Ted Lasso, James is a lock to win this. She could still win even if Abbott loses the series award. She is a big breakout.
*Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary) (ABC)
Or, maybe there’s a silent majority who really do prefer Ralph’s less gif-able performance. This is the category where Abbott has the most juice to play spoiler. Unlike Ted Lasso though, I don’t think there’s a clear favorite between James and Ralph which means vote split.
*Sarah Niles (Ted Lasso) (Apple TV+)
Niles brought such a jarring and welcome shift in tone to Ted Lasso that I wouldn’t be stunned if she pulled a Margo Martindale (Justified) with a one-and-done win.
*Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) (HBO/HBO Max)
Einbinder is a lead if not the lead of Hacks, so you’d think this kind of category fraud would help her. I truly believe the voters only have eyes for Jean Smart though. Einbinder gives the wrong kind of irritating performance too. She’s great on Hacks, but “great on Hacks” often means coming away from the show exasperated by her.
*Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) (Prime Video)
She won this is 2018 and 2019. She’s the last best hope for continued Maisel wins. And no vote split to worry about. This isn’t a category with a scarcity of good options though, so there’s no reason for an old winner to sneak in.
*Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live) (NBC)
Former winner in 2016 and 2017. Maybe they give her one last award for her farewell from SNL but – repeat after me – Emmy voters aren’t sentimental like that. Besides, two wins previously means no one is arguing she’s been underappreciated.
*Juno Temple (Ted Lasso) (Apple TV+)
She’s great but she has the least compelling case to win among her castmates.
Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama Series
*Julia Garner (Ozark) (Netflix)
I guess Garner, who won for the most recent two seasons (2019, 2020) and has the added visibility from Inventing Anna remains the front runner here. She’s actually a lead on Ozark in this last season and remained great until the bitter end. You won’t find a bigger Julia Garner fan out there than me, so I wouldn’t begrudge another win here. I just worry because the end of Ozark was such an afterthought this year, and maybe having Inventing Anna as a way to vote for her will hurt the impetus to vote for her again here.
*Christina Ricci (Yellowjackets) (Showtime)
Fuck it. I’m having some fun. People know Christina Ricci. Yellowjackets clearly resonated with a portion of the Emmy voting body. Ricci killed every second of screen time she had on Yellowjackets. I don’t believe anyone is the clear favorite in this category, and I can definitely see Ricci coming out on top of a close split. Keep in mind, it’s mathematically possible for her to win with as little as 13% of the vote.
*Sarah Snook (Succession) (HBO/HBO Max)
I’m troubled by Snook losing to Garner in 2020 despite being the only Succession nominee in the category. Succession was a dominating favorite that year yet she couldn’t turn that into a win? Much of that is because while Snook is great in Succession, Shiv doesn’t get many of the capital-M Moments on the show, so she’s easy to under-appreciate.
*Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul) (AMC)
There’s a chance that this is the rare case of “all she has to do is get nominated, then she’ll be undeniable for a win”. Unfortunately, I think Better Call Saul actually holds the record for most actor/actress nominations without ever getting a win. Seehorn is absolutely who I am rooting for, but it feels like wishful thinking, sadly.
*Patricia Arquette (Severance) (Apple TV+)
She has hardware for both The Act (2019) and Medium (2005). They clearly like her. This is a relatively weak field, so it’s very possible she could sneak in.
*Jung Ho-yeon (Squid Game) (Netflix)
Like I’ve said before, I don’t believe in Squid Game, and more importantly, I don’t believe in Emmy voters’ likelihood to pick performances they experienced through dubs or subtitles.
*Sydney Sweeney (Euphoria) (HBO/HBO Max)
The Emmys aren’t that concerned about being the first to recognize the shiny new thing. That’s more of a Golden Globe thing. Sweeney is a rising star if not a supernova but I don’t see it helping her here.
*J. Smith-Cameron (Succession) (HBO/HBO Max)
Are voters really going to pick outside the Roy family? Besides, Smith-Cameron’s best scenes tended to be in reaction to something bizarre Culkin did. Despite the name of the award, voters don’t vote for performances that are actually supporting other performances.
Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie
*Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus) (HBO/HBO Max)
Coolidge – is – winning – this…I’m struggling to see how she’s not. Everyone loves her. Arguably the biggest story of The White Lotus was how it reminded everyone that they love her. She’s awesome in The White Lotus in a way that’s incredibly easy to appreciate. Even though she’s kind of a villain, you really don’t leave with complicated feelings about her. Vote splitting be damned. She’s got this.
*Kaitlyn Dever (Dopesick) (Hulu)
OK. Dever gets the most big acting and big moments of anyone here. Even though she’s been around for over a decade, her career really is only getting started though. There’s not a big rush to award her now. Also, I kind of addressed this in my blurb for the Casting award; Dever is playing a role that’s familiar to what she’s played before and recently. Unbelievable (2019) immediately comes to mind. This doesn’t feel revelatory in the way that bringing Coolidge back does.
*Mare Winningham (Dopesick) (Hulu)
I’m already at a point where I’m struggling to see a path to see anyone else’s path to victory. Winningham has less of a vote split with a castmate to worry about. However, her role is very much in response to Dever. It’s hard to see how even someone looking at Winningham doesn’t get led back to Dever.
*Connie Britton (The White Lotus) (HBO/HBO Max)
Amazingly, she’s never won an Emmy, and she’s only become more beloved since Friday Night Lights ended. Again though, I think about how people come away from The White Lotus thinking about that character. It’s a lot of complicated feelings. Britton will pretty much have to win this on the power of her reputation, much like Regina King has for her many Emmy wins.
*Natasha Rothwell (The White Lotus) (HBO/HBO Max)
As a truly sympathetic character in The White Lotus, Rothwell would seem like a frontrunner. She has the same problem as Winningham does with Dever though. Thinking about Rothwell in The White Lotus immediately leads me to thinking about Coolidge.
*Alexandra Daddario (The White Lotus) (HBO/HBO Max)
*Sydney Sweeney (The White Lotus) (HBO/HBO Max)
I don’t know the right way to say this. A lot of the response to Daddario and Sweeney’s performances in The White Lotus was a realization that they weren’t just hot; they could act too. That’s reductive and dumb, but I think it’s true. I can’t think of anything this interesting that Daddario has ever been given. Before this, people mainly knew Sweeney from Euphoria where she’s incredibly convincing*. Seeing her very different in The White Lotus reminded people that Euphoria was really good acting not really good casting for her. The fact that they were more of a surprise than Britton being great is why I put them below Britton. Like Britton and Rothwell though, their biggest knock is that Coolidge is the winner from The White Lotus.
*For the record, I’d already seen her in Everybody Sucks and knew who she was when she showed up in The Handmaid’s Tale. I had no doubts about her talent.
