Oscar 2012 Breakdown

Hey, I know this is a month early, but I can't control how and when I get bored.

With 9 nominees this year, once again, people have to fight the urge to think the race for best picture is wide open. Depending on what you've read, everyone has their own theories about front-runners, dark horses, and why that movie with the annoyingly difficult name was nominated. Now, I have my own theories as well, but I wanted to give this an objective look, and as I'm prone to do, I brought in some statistics.

I compared all the major categories and 4 had the highest correlation of nominations to Best Picture win: Directing, Acting, Screenplay, and Editing. And, I decided to go back 50 years in my examination, since it's a nice round number and any further back the nominations process still was looking to get it's footing.

Alright. First chart. Below we have the 9 best picture nominees and which of the major categories they are nominated for.

 

	Directing	Acting	Screenplay	Editing	Most Noms.
The Artist	X	X	X	X
The Descendants	X	X	X	X
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close		X
The Help		X
Hugo	X		X	X	X
Midnight in Paris	X		X
Moneyball		X	X	X
The Tree of Life	X
Ware Horse

Next, we have the breakdown of how many Best Picture winners were nominated for each of the major categories, going back ten years at a time.

 

Years	Directing	Acting	Screenplay	Editing	Most Noms.
2001-2010	10	8	10	10	6
1991-2000	20	17	19	20	15
1981-1990	29	26	29	30	24
1971-1980	39	36	39	37	32
1961-1970	49	46	48	45	38

Here's a few facts I learned from the all this:

FACT: The only movie to win without a Director nomination was Driving Miss Daisy which had the most nominations that year including 3 different acting nominations.

FACT: The last movie to win without a Screenplay nomination was Titanic. Considering how many wins it got, that is a shocking snub.

FACT: Editing is pretty important these days, although I do think that 30 year streak is slightly coincidence. Regardless, numbers don't lie.

FACT: Acting doesn't matter as much these days if the director is the star.

BIGGEST FACT OF ALL: No movie in the last 50 years has won Best Picture with fewer than 3 power category nominations.

Given these facts and these facts alone, let's start narrowing down this year's Oscar picture.

First Elimination: “War Horse” (-)

It's funny how things change. Four months ago, this was the Oscar front-runner and a virtual lock. It turns out, critics got tired of Spielberg's ways and audiences are having a hard time getting past the “Story of a boy and his horse” tag. It's a shame too, because I found this to be a damn good (albeit highly transparent) film. The biggest hit for War Horse was the lack of a Directing nomination. This was completely a passion project for Spielberg. The lack of recognition there is the nail in the coffin and the stake through the heart. Odds: 1%

Second Elimination: “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” (Acting)

A lone acting nomination is the one thing that keeps the odds for this winning higher than “War Horse's”. It is not at all deserving of the win and something like “Bridesmaids” would've been a better ninth pick if they were going to waste it. Odds: 1%

Third Elimination

The directing nomination is certainly the most important of any of them. This movie is too polarizing though. And, for a movie with such precision for every shot, a lack of Editing nomination is pretty damning. This is no way this is winning. Personally, I'm fine with that. In an attempt to stay neutral though, I'll point out that “2001: A Space Odyssey” wasn't appreciated by the Academy either.  Odds: 3%

Fourth Elimination: The Help (Acting)

There are people out there telling you that “The Help” is a front-runner or perhaps an Oscar dark horse (pun not intended). I'm here to tell you, it's not going to happen. It has a lot of acting nominations, sure, but it is missing any other important recognition. A win like this has not happened since the early days of the Oscars. It would be the equivalent of the Jamaican bobsled team winning gold in the Olympics. It will get an acting win. Be happy with that. Odds: 5%

Update: I forgot to mention the White Guilt factor in this. Statistically, it can't be calculated, but it is an X-factor. Not as significant of one as some may lead you to believe.

Fifth Elimination: Moneyball (Acting, Screenplay, Editing)

I'm rather surprised this movie hung around for award season. That said, this has a lot going for it...except the directing nomination. And, let's be clear, it wouldn't've been the sixth, seventh, or either pick for directing. Overall, this was like making Field of Dreams, but with a production strategy like the Yankees: They paid big money to build the team with Oscar winning scribes (Sorkin), movie stars (Pitt), experienced players (Hoffman), and young guns (Hill), but didn't find anyone to pull them together as a team (the director). It'll get them into the playoffs, but it's no way to win a World Series. Odds: 5%

Sixth Elimination: Midnight in Paris (Directing, Screenplay)

It has the two biggest nominations historically and Woody Allen's sole best picture win was also with a movie that didn't have an editing nomination and was a heavy underdog by nomination count that year. There is a world in which this movie could win. To call it anything other than a surprise win would be foolish. Odds: 5%

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Before I go any further, this is where we go into the movies with an actual chance to win. Statistically, we are moving away from the outliers. From this point on, it really is a matter of me guessing.

Seventh Elimination: The Descendants (Directing, Screenplay, Acting, Editing)

On paper, it has everything it needs, except a few more nominations. What hurts it the most is the lack of a supporting nomination for Shailene Woodley. That means it's seen as a one-man-show in the Academy's eyes. We will see how it plays out. Alexander Payne + George Clooney is a great formula for Oscar nominations, but it has not equaled a lot of wins in the past. Odds: 15%

Eighth Elimination: ...uh...Hugo (Directing, Screenplay, Editing, Most Nominations)

It's a tough call and I'd love to see it win, especially given the competition. The last movies to win without an acting nomination were “Slumdog Millionaire” and “Return of the King”. Hugo is similar in that it is not a showcase for any particular actor, so it doesn't hurt that no one was nominated. It also has the most nominations which helps. It's a gut call that it won't win. But it has the best chance of any to pull off the upset. Odds: 30%

Predicted Winner: The Artist (Directing, Screenplay, Acting, Editing)

It has all the nominations, all the buzz, all the other wins, and all the charm. The one thing it's missing is all the ticket sales. That hasn't stopped the Academy from handing out the trophy in the past, but it is perhaps the one thing that could get in it's way. Personally, I hope it doesn't win because it's rather hokey, limited, and obvious. It is the most obvious pick however. Odds: 35%

Movie Reaction: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Formula: 9/11. 9/11. 9/11. Cry! It's 9/11!

Cast
I love both Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock.That alone should be able to get me hooked. Tom Hank was underused. Sandra Bullock was misused till the end. I need to see the kid in another movie, because I can't tell whether he is a weak actor playing an vaguely autistic boy or accomplished child actor pulling off an honest depiction of autism.I guess Max von Sydow's Oscar nomination makes this the year of the silent performance.

Plot
Look, I know the premise could never deliver on it's promise. I still couldn't help but feel disappointed. The story can't decide whether it wants to be a broad examination of post-9/11 New York or personal story about a family's loss. It's bad enough that it's not even the best movie about a boy and a key.

9/11
This movie comes from a good place. The intentions are noble, but it comes together as sort of exploitative of 9/11. The most gripping moments rely on the fact that no one wants to relive that day, not the connection the boy has to his father. I can see how this film could make people angry with how it uses 9/11. I'm not in that camp, but they could've found a better story for the emotional point they tried to make.

New York
Look, I know the city isn't as bad as SVU makes it seem, but no amount of suspension of disbelief could make me think this kid could/should/would travel, often alone, all over the city to meet strangers. I realize they are going for a feel of community and togetherness, but come on. This is a bit much.

Verdict (?): Weakly Don't Recommend

Mom's Basement

Our society has a very harsh view on the man living in his mother's basement. It's a punch line in every comic book store scene I've ever watched and I think it needs to end. What's so wrong about living in your mother's basement? Let's look at the facts.
1) Saves money. If you are living in the basement, you are certain to be paying nothing or less than if you were living on your own. Might as well build up a 401K with all this money you're not spending on utilities and cable.
2) Better food. You are going to eat so much better. Mom has never learned how to make food for one so drop that Ramen and get some of that meatloaf. And, believe me, leftovers in he fridge are still better than the pasta you made, substituting ketchup for meat sauce because you were too lazy to go to the store.
3) Might as well have a reason for not getting laid. There's a certain type of person who basically always strikes out with women (I don't know if I know any...), so what better excuse for striking out with the kind of woman you could never land than not having anywhere to go? See. It isn't your fault, it's your situation. Even better, you can save yourself from waking up next to something that even with beer goggles is a solid -2. Think about it. The type of girl you can't take home to meet mom. Done.
4) Clean. As much as she may bitch to you about it, Mom will always crack before you when it comes to cleaning. Where, on your own you could end up with a carpet of crumbs, pizza boxes, tissues, and beer cans (mind you, it started as a hard wood floor), once a week, your floor's been vacuumed and your laundry's done. Can't beat that kind of service.
5) Isolated. The basement is so separate from the rest of the house that you barely have to worry about interruption. Play that loud music, watch that German porn, and play Call of Duty till 4am. It's your domain. And, if you have a door that leads outside, you basically have an apartment with the most forgiving landlord ever.
All I'm trying to say is "don't be so quick to judge" and, TV writers, come up with a new joke. You're better than that.

Movie Reaction: The Artist

Formula: Pleasantville - All the talking + Oscar Attention

Full disclosure, I went into this movie looking for a reason to not believe the awards hype. This happens with a lot of movies (War Horse being the best example from this year) and I'm not stubborn in changing my mind. This movie was about what I expected though.

Cast
I'll be using this word a lot, but all the actors were very charming. I give them a lot of props for all the acting they had to do without words. That's a tough job to ask of anyone. Jean Dujardin has the look of a silent movie star. Berenice Bejo Does great supporting work. The rest of the cast of more familiar faces do well in limited use. The dog is the star though and deserves every Milk-Bone thrown his way.

Plot
Let's face it. The plot is pretty bare bones. Words allow more complexity. So, it goes in the exact arch you expect and there's nothing you haven't seen before. It's a charming little story that doesn't need to get beneath the surface. I did enjoy how the silent treatment forced them to really choose dialogue wisely.

Score
Poor John Williams. He does some of his finest work of his remarkably accomplished career on War Horse and then The Artist comes along and steals the show. For a movie like this to work, the score has to be something special and it delivers. It sounds authentic and carries the highs and lows of the story incredibly well.

Acting
This movie is going to [and has] gobble up a lot of awards and many of them for acting. There are two schools of thought here.
1) To effectively play a character, adding depth and complexity, without the use of words requires great skill. The actors are working on a handicap that are not present in other movies and still match up.
2) Acting requires a range of skills and taking the delivery of lines out of it doesn't allow the actors to be judged for as full a performance. Giving them so much recognition is like giving the MVP to a player that never plays any defense. If these actors get awards attention, shouldn't voice actors, or someone like Andy Serkis?
I lean toward the second camp. Both sides have merits.

The Dog
I'm going into amazing dog overload right now between watching Frasier Netflix and this movie. That's not a complaint.

End Thoughts
I'll admit, the movie drained me a bit. I enjoyed it, but it wouldn't make my top 10 list. It felt like more of an experiment than a fully realize movie. I loved the tap number at the end though.

Verdict (?): Weakly Recommend 

2011 Movies - In Review

It's 2AM on a Monday night (when I'm starting this), so I won't bother defending why I'm wasting so much time doing this, so here are my thoughts of the 2011 movies I've seen this year.
The fucking Oscars take too long and the Golden Globes are just wrong or unreliable. There's still a bunch of movies that came out in 2 theaters on 12/31 that are considered 2011 movies, so I've certainly not seen everything. Also, there's all those movies I simply haven't seen yet (2-3 released per WEEK. How can I keep up with that?). So, here you are, the movies from 2011 that I've seen, an arbitrary grade for it, and a little blurb about it. If you want, just read the first dozen or so. That's my top ten list, I guess.

"Bridesmaids"                    A
Best comedy of the year. I'm a sucker for Apatow productions, so I'm very biased.

"Hugo"                        A
I'm not a sucker for Scorsese and went in to this movie not excited to see it and, frankly, pissed that I had to pay for 3-D. Still, I came out of this movie in love with it. I highly recommend it for anyone who is a cinema history nerd. This has made me a Scorsese believer if I wasn't already.

"Warrior"                    A
On paper, there's no reason for me to like this movie. It's Rocky, in tournament form. There is something about this, the way that they develop the characters, the thrilling shots, and surprisingly wonderful acting that made this movie one of my favorites of the year. Even if this doesn't seem like your genre, give it a chance.

"Crazy, Stupid, Love"                A-
This is what a romantic comedy should be. Great cast. Funny. Not a totally cliche ending.

"Drive"                        A-
This is everyone's favorite "man, I'm so hip and cool" movie. I saw it before all the hipsters though and liked it greatly then.

"War Horse"                    A-
Not since Brokeback Mountain has the tagline for a good movie sounded so ridiculous. I liked this movie WAY more than I expected. This is one of John Williams' best scores and really, it's a shame that people know Speilberg's tricks already, because, this is nothing new from him, but it's certainly one of the best example's of what he does so well. I honestly cried some watching this.

"Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes"        A-
The title is too long and James Franco delivers all of his lines like he believes this is the most ridiculous thing he's ever done (check his filmography. It's not). Beyond that, surprisingly fantastic movie.

"50/50"                        B+
I love Joseph Gorden Levitt. I love Seth Rogen. I now love Anna Kendrick. The rest of the cast is good. Sure, this has a very Hollywood ending, but I don't think that should mitigate the significance the the journey.

"Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol"        B+
Perhaps the best popcorn movie of the year.

"The Descendants"                B+
Alexander Payne's movies are not my preference, but I like George Clooney and I like that Jim Rash (from Community co-wrote the screenplay). Thoroughly enjoyable film. 

"The Help"                    B+
Good movies. This is coming from someone who gets quickly bored by movies talking about race relations. It's a bit on the long side though.
Does it bother anyone else how little credit Emma Stone gets for her work on the movie? She's the one that got me in the theater. The other actresses may have stepped up more than her, but she certainly held her own.

"Super 8"                    B+
E.T. meets Cloverfield. I say this as someone who loves both movies.

"X-Men: First Class"                B+
I looked at the cast for this and thought they were shooting this with a bunch of 2nd or 3rd choices for all the roles. After the Wolverine movie, my opinion of the franchise couldn't've been lower. Little did I know, this would perhaps be the strongest Marvel (not just X-Men) movie yet.

"Bad Teacher"                    B
It's like watching Bad Santa if you wanted to do Billy-Bob Thorton. Pretty much, if you like one movie, you'll like the other.

"Moneyball"                    B
Watch this movie and you'll feel like a baseball expert. I did. Brad Pitt does a good job (award-worthy? I disagree). Jonah Hill takes a refreshingly different kind of role. Overall, it comes together well.

"Like Crazy"                    B
Man, this movie can be tough to watch if under the wrong conditions (so I discovered). The girl (Felicity Jones, I think is her name) is very good in this. 

"Contagion"                    B
In the middle of this movie, someone in the movie theater coughed. You could feel the entire room tense up line none I'd ever been in. In other words, this movie was effective.

"Captain America: The First Avenger"        B
Probably the best romance story of any Marvel movie. It did drag some in the middle.

"A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas"        B
I love this franchise. I am aware it's not for everyone and that you have to forgive it's weaknesses to appreciate it's strengths. Still, funniest rated R 3-D Christmas season of the later half of 2011, without question. Take the "The Sitter".

"The Muppets"                    B
Cheesy, stupid, and filled with nostalgia. To hate this, you have no soul.

"We Bought A Zoo"                B
Better than Elizabethtown. Worse than Almost Famous.

"Young Adult"                    B
Greatly uncomfortable movie, but Charlize Theron is great in it, as is Patton Oswalt. 

"My Week With Marilyn"            B
Williams could steal the Oscar from Streep with this movie. The rest of it: eh.

"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2"    B-
This should've been the best popcorn movie of the year. All they had to do was use the book. I don't know how they fucked this up.

"The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo"        B-
This was kind of like watching a really good episode of SVU with a TV-MA rating and no time limit. I love SVU, but I would expect a little more from it at over 2 hours.

"Transformers: Dark Of The Moon"        B-
Better than Transformers 2, but what isn't.

"Our Idiot Brother"                B-
A movie help up primarily due to the comedic strength of it's cast. Also, Rashida Jones and Zooey Deschanel as a lesbian couple. I'm sold.

"Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"            B-
A lot to digest. It was good, but I couldn't go to the bathroom for a hour because if I missed anything, I'd never catch up.

"30 Minutes Or Less"                C+
Funny premise, but the movie just ended. It didn't really have an ending. It just stopped and went to credits.

"Your Highness"                C+
Sometimes, you watch a movie and want to keep rewatching it because you are certain there is something to it you missed, and if you could ever figure out what it was, it could be the funniest comedy ever. This had that kind of feel.

"Paul"                        C+
It's sad. They just can't recreate the Shaun of the Dead magic.

"The Ides of March"                C
A thriller about the Democratic primaries. Thriller. Primaries. Let that sink in. It did what it could with the material it had.

"The Adjustment Bureau"            C
What if the Matrix was remade as a straight-up romance movie?

"Sherlock Holmes: A Game Of Shadows"    C
The first one didn't impress me. This one did less.

"Horrible Bosses"                C-
Maybe it suffered from too many much better comedies coming out this year, but for a cast this strong, the comedy was so week.

"No Strings Attached"                C-
For some reason, I imagine the outtakes and deleted scenes are probably hilarious. As it is, the movie is bland as bland can be.

"The Thing"                    C-
I went sixth months seeing a movie a week this year. This movie, convinced me to take a break.

"The Hangover Part II"                D+
The first was a "greater than the sum of it's parts" situation. This movie was the same as the first, except in Bangkok and less polished but with a bigger budget.

"Cedar Rapids"                    D+
I don't know what to make of this movie. It had "Maybe" from Arrested Development in it, so that gets it the '+'.

"The Green Hornet"                D
Not as bad as some people made it out to be. That doesn't make it go, either.

"The Beaver"                    D
Am I missing something? This was just awful!

"Just Go With It"                F
Interesting title. It's like they knew they would have to trick people to see this and enjoy it. I remember hearing someone say they were surprised how good a job Brooklyn Decker did in her first real acting role. I want to find that person so I can know how bad they thought she would be, because this is already in the "give a couple line to the producer's ten year old daughter" bad.


"Sucker Punch"                    F
As a painting brought to life, this impressed me. Sadly, there's also plot and acting to account for.

There you go. Probably filled with typos, but no one's getting all the way through this anyway, so what do I care?

1, 2, 3, Go!

Humans are a highly evolved species. In the realm of science, we have soared higher than anyone even a hundred years ago could've imagined. In mathematics, we have machines performing billions of calculations a second. We have a language so diverse and complex that we can express virtually anything in existence. Communication has helped us build empires, create monuments, and conquer obstacles previously thought impossible. So, someone please tell me how we have not found a better way to coordinate an action than "on three"?
It's meant to save time but inevitable turns into "do you mean 1, 2, 3 or 1, 2, 3, go?"
Why don't we find an alternate like "Ready, set, go"? Do we like signalling the count on our fingers too much?
Personally, I say we do "on goose". That way, if you realize you need more time once the count begins, you keep saying "duck."

New Years Favors

Early January is my favorite time to ask anyone for a favor. You see, it is the perfect time of year. Everyone is fresh off Christmas...or Chanukah or Kwanzaa. It doesn't matter. They just got gifts and watched a lot of happy propaganda films (called Christmas movies). Then, it is New Years, when everyone makes a resolution that's something like "I am going to be a better person starting today, and if I could do it X lbs. lighter, that would be great." So, I take this new found (and short-lived) goodwill and use it for my own gain, borrowing CDs and movies that I never plan on returning and finding someone to help me move my couch upstairs without ever doing anything in return because that would directly conflict with my resolutions: "Never turn down a free lunch" and "refuse to tip".