IMDB Top 250 Examination

That took longer than expected. As often happens on my working weekends, I had a lot of free time and lacked the resources to do anything interesting. To pass the time, I gave myself a little project.

The IMDB Top 250 list is the best list I've been able to find of the top movies out there. I don't know the exact rating rules for it (my guess is that it's based on having at least x ratings), but it does a great job of keeping outliers off (or not on long, but more on that in a bit). Part of what works so well with the list is that it isn't a poll in the traditional sense. Star Wars fanboys don't care to try and skew the votes because it's a fluid collection, not a final tally.

That said, the focus is on quantity of voters over quality of them and that keeps this from being another boring critical darling list. Citizen Kane may be influential, but not that many people LOVE it. City of God may be the best "work of art" over the past decade, but it's not the first movie I put on to top my personal list. That's really what it is, a collection of a lot of people's top 10 lists.

Faults
I want to come right out and admit it's faults. It is super modern-skewing. Every year, if you examine it, the average year of the movies goes up. I don't even need to examine it to know that. This is a list made by the internet age. That is why over 60 of the movies have been made since 2000 and each decade has fewer movies and director variation decreases.

The other major fault is that it is more of a "guy's list". You won't be seeing The Notebook on here. At the same time, should you see The Notebook on here? I'll let you decide that for yourself, but a sweeping and (I say this with great pain) timeless epic like Titanic should be on the list. There's no two ways about that. (Granted, this is only my opinion, therein lies the inarguable strength of the list).

Smaller issue like a lack of comedies and domination of American films (though not as much as you'd at first think) I can't hold against it. Comedies are generally too polarizing and .com is an American extension so there's an assumed level of home court advantage.

Strengths
In it's favor there is a lot though. Helping to legitimize it, there is a movie represented from every years going back till 1947. This includes several movies from the 20s. Also, 39 of 84 Oscar winners for best picture are included as well as dozens more nominated films. In the top 20 there are multiple foreign films too. So, the list is more diverse than most would expect for an internet list.

Thanks for keeping with me this far. Below, I've compiled a list of movies in the list based on year. Below that, I have a bit of a breakdown.

Top 250 as of 9/24/11 by release year.

Rank    Title (Year)                        Director

101. Drive (2011)                        Refn
133. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (2011)        Yates
222. A Separation (2011)                    Farhadi

11. Inception (2010)                        Nolan
37. Toy Story 3 (2010)                        Unkrich
113. Black Swan (2010)                        Aronofsky
124. The King's Speech (2010)                    Hooper
182. How to Train Your Dragon (2010)                Sanders    Dublois
218. The Social Network (2010)                    Fincher
238. Shutter Island (2010)                    Scorsese

95. Inglourious Basterds (2009)                    Terantino
102. Up (2009)                            Doctor    Peterson
162. District 9 (2009)                        Blomkamp
161. The Secret in Their Eyes (2009)                 Campanella
192. Avatar (2009)                        J. Cameron
196. Mary and Max (2009)                    Elliot
200. Star Trek (2009)                        Abrams

9. The Dark Knight (2008)                    Nolan
52. WALL·E (2008)                        Stanton
100. Gran Torino (2008)                        Eastwood
139. Slumdog Millionaire (2008)                Boyle
183. The Wrestler (2008)                        Aronofsky
217. In Bruges (2008)                        McDonagh
223. Let the Right One In (2008)                    Lindqvist
241. Ip Man (2008)                        Yip

129. No Country for Old Men (2007)                Coen
148. Into the Wild (2007)                        Penn
154. There Will Be Blood (2007)                    Anderson
178. The Bourne Ultimatum (2007)                Greengrass
191. Ratatouille (2007)                        Bird
204. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (2007)            Schnabel

55. The Lives of Others (2006)                    Donnersmarck
56. The Departed (2006)                    Scorsese
71. The Prestige (2006)                        Nolan
85. Pan's Labyrinth (2006)                    del Toro
180. V for Vendetta (2006)                    McTeigue
234. Children of Men (2006)                    Cuaron

114. Batman Begins (2005)                    Nolan
112. Sin City (2005)                        Miller    Rodriguez

62. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (2004)            Gondry
94. Downfall (2004)                        Hirschbiegel
126. Hotel Rwanda (2004)                    George
152. Million Dollar Baby (2004)                    Eastwood
219. Howl's Moving Castle (2004)                    Miyazaki
214. The Incredibles (2004)                    Bird
236. Kill Bill: Vol. 2 (2004)                    Terantino

10. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003)    Jackson
93. Oldboy (2003)                        Chan-wook
142. Kill Bill: Vol. 1 (2003)                    Terantino
172. Finding Nemo (2003)                    Stanton        Unkirch
221. Mystic River (2003)                        Eastwood
233. Pirates of the Caribbean: ...Black Pearl (2003)        Verbinski
227. Big Fish (2003)                        Burton
246. Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter... and Spring (2003)        Ki-duk

18. City of God (2002)                        Meirelles    Lund
30. The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (2002)        Jackson
51. The Pianist (2002)                        Polanski
228. Infernal Affairs (2002)                    Lau    Mack

17. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2001)    Jackson
45. Spirited Away (2001)                        Miyazaki
47. Amélie (2001)                        Jenet
144. Donnie Darko (2001)                    Kelly
245. Monsters, Inc. (2001)                    Docter
242. A Beautiful Mind (2001)                    Howard

31. Memento (2000)                        Nolan
61. Requiem for a Dream (2000)                    Aronofsky
88. Gladiator (2000)                        Scott
125. Snatch. (2000)                        Ritchie
163. Amores Perros (2000)                    Inarritu

14. Fight Club (1999)                        Fincher
21. The Matrix (1999)                        Wachowski
40. American Beauty (1999)                    Mendes
74. The Green Mile (1999)                    Darabont
136. The Sixth Sense (1999)                    Shyamalan
225. Magnolia (1999)                         Anderson

36. American History X (1998)                    Kaye
43. Saving Private Ryan (1998)                    Speilberg
134. The Big Lebowski (1998)                    Coen
164. Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels (1998)        Ritchie
215. The Truman Show (1998)                    Weir
232. The Celebration (1998)                    Vinterberg

65. Life Is Beautiful (1997)                    Benigni
69. L.A. Confidential (1997)                    Hanson
104. Princess Mononoke (1997)                    Miyazaki
187. Good Will Hunting (1997)                    Van Sant

118. Fargo (1996)                        Coen
149. Trainspotting (1996)                        Boyle

24. The Usual Suspects (1995)                    Singer
27. Se7en (1995)                        Fincher
90. Braveheart (1995)                        Gibson
117. Heat (1995)                        Mann
137. Toy Story (1995)                        Lasseter
169. Casino (1995)                        Scorsese
181. Twelve Monkeys (1995)                    Gillam
250. Before Sunrise (1995)                    Linklater

1. The Shawshank Redemption (1994)                Darabont
5. Pulp Fiction (1994)                        Terantino
29. Forrest Gump (1994)                    Zemeckis
33. Leon: The Professional (1994)                Besson
122. The Lion King (1994)                    Allers    Minkoff
229. Ed Wood (1994)                        Burton

7. Schindler's List (1993)                    Speilberg
165. Groundhog Day (1993)                    Ramis

66. Reservoir Dogs (1992)                    Terantino
96. Unforgiven (1992)                        Eastwood

25. The Silence of the Lambs (1991)                Demme
41. Terminator 2: Judgment Day (1991)                J. Cameron

15. Goodfellas (1990)                        Scorsese

105. Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade (1989)            Speilberg

73. Cinema Paradiso (1988)                    Tornatore
115. Grave of the Fireflies (1988)                    Takahata
109. Die Hard (1988)                        McTiernan
184. My Neighbor Totoro (1988)                    Miyazaki
244. Rain Man (1988)                        Levinson

83. Full Metal Jacket (1987)                    Kubrick
195. The Princess Bride (1987)                    Reiner

60. Aliens (1986)                        J. Cameron
145. Platoon (1986)                        Stone
176. Stand by Me (1986)                        Reiner

68. Back to the Future (1985)                    Zemeckis
128. Ran (1985)                            Kurosawa

79. Amadeus (1984)                        Forman
76. Once Upon a Time in America (1984)                Leone
171. The Terminator (1984)                    J. Cameron
248. Nausicaä of the Valley of the Wind (1984)            Miyazaki

99. Star Wars: Episode VI - Return of the Jedi (1983)        Marquand
147. Scarface (1983)                        De Palma

119. Blade Runner (1982)                    Scott
173. The Thing (1982)                        Carpentar
185. Gandhi (1982)                        Attenborough
209. Fanny and Alexander (1982)                Bergman

23. Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981)                Speilberg
63. Das Boot (1981)                        Petersen

77. Raging Bull (1980)                        Scorsese
98. The Elephant Man (1980)                    Lynch
12. Star Wars: Episode V - The Empire Strikes Back (1980)    Kershner
48. The Shining (1980)                        Kubrick

44. Alien (1979)                            Scott
35. Apocalypse Now (1979)                    Coppola
167. Life of Brian (1979)                        Jones
230. Manhattan (1979)                        Allen
243. Stalker (1979)                        Tarkovsky

135. The Deer Hunter (1978)                    Cimino

16. Star Wars: Episode IV - A New Hope (1977)            Lucas
140. Annie Hall (1977)                        Allen

42. Taxi Driver (1976)                        Scorsese
188. Network (1976)                        Lumet
213. Rocky (1976)                        Avilsen

8. One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest (1975)            Forman
75. Monty Python and the Holy Grail (1975)            Gillam    Jones
127. Jaws (1975)                         Speilberg
179. Dog Day Afternoon (1975)                    Lumet
211. Barry Lyndon (1975)                    Kubrick

3. The Godfather: Part II (1974)                    Coppola
70. Chinatown (1974)                        Polanski

97. The Sting (1973)                        Hill
205. The Exorcist (1973)                        Friedkin

2. The Godfather (1972)                        Coppola
239. Sleuth (1972)                        Mankiewicz

57. A Clockwork Orange (1971)                    Kubrick

240. Patton (1970)                        Schaffner

153. Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid (1969)            Hill
206. The Wild Bunch (1969)                    Peckinpah

20. Once Upon a Time in the West (1968)            Leone
89. 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)                Kubrick
224. Rosemary's Baby (1968)                    Polanski

138. Cool Hand Luke (1967)                    Rosenberg
168. The Graduate (1967)                    Nichols

4. The Good, the Bad and the Ugly (1966)            Leone
194. The Battle of Algiers (1966)                    Pontecorvo
201. Persona (1966)                        Bergman
203. Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? (1966)            Nichols

121. For a Few Dollars More (1965)                Leone

34. Dr. Strangelove ... (1964)                    Kubrick

110. The Great Escape (1963)                    Sturges
190. 8½ (1963)                            Fellini

58. Lawrence of Arabia (1962)                    Lean
59. To Kill a Mockingbird (1962)                    Mulligan
174. The Manchurian Candidate (1962)                Frankenheimer
237. The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance (1962)            Ford

116. Yojimbo (1961)                        Kurosawa
186. Judgment at Nuremberg (1961)                Kramer
198. The Hustler (1961)                        Rossen

26. Psycho (1960)                        Hitchcock
91. The Apartment (1960)                    Wilder

39. North by Northwest (1959)                    Hitchcock
80. Some Like It Hot (1959)                    Wilder
166. Ben-Hur (1959)                        Wyler
193. The 400 Blows (1959)                    Truffaut
247. Anatomy of a Murder (1959)                    Preminger

46. Vertigo (1958)                        Hitchcock
131. Touch of Evil (1958)                        Wells

6. 12 Angry Men (1957)                        Lumet
50. Paths of Glory (1957)                    Kubrick
86. The Bridge on the River Kwai (1957)            Lean
111. The Seventh Seal (1957)                    Bergman
123. Witness for the Prosecution (1957)                Wilder
130. Wild Strawberries (1957)                    Bergman
226. Nights of Cabiria (1957)                    Fellini

197. The Killing (1956)                        Kubrick

177. Diabolique (1955)                        Clouzot
189. The Night of the Hunter (1955)                Laughton

13. Seven Samurai (1954)                    Kurosawa
22. Rear Window (1954)                        Hitchcock
107. On the Waterfront (1954)                    Kazan
199. Dial M for Murder (1954)                    Hitchcock
202. La Strada (1954)                        Fellini

159. The Wages of Fear (1953)                    Clouzot
207. Stalag 17 (1953)                        Wilder
231. Roman Holiday (1953)                    Wyler

81. Singin' in the Rain (1952)                    Kelly    Donen
150. Ikiru (1952)                            Kurosawa
146. High Noon (1952)                        Zinnemann

141. Strangers on a Train (1951)                    Hitchcock
208. A Streetcar Named Desire (1951)                Kazan

32. Sunset Blvd. (1950)                        Wilder
78. Rashomon (1950)                        Kurosawa
84. All About Eve (1950)                    Mankiewicz

67. The Third Man (1949)                    Reed
210. Kind Hearts and Coronets (1949)                Hamer

72. The Treasure of the Sierra Madre (1948)            Huston
87. Bicycle Thieves (1948)                    De Sica
235. Rope (1948)                        Hitchcock

28. It's a Wonderful Life (1946)                    Capra
156. Notorious (1946)                        Hitchcock
170. The Big Sleep (1946)                    Hawks
175. The Best Years of Our Lives (1946)                Wyler

54. Double Indemnity (1944)                    Wilder

19. Casablanca (1942)                        Curtiz

38. Citizen Kane (1941)                        Wells
106. The Maltese Falcon (1941)                    Huston

82. The Great Dictator (1940)                    Chaplin
108. Rebecca (1940)                        Hitchcock
157. The Grapes of Wrath (1940)                    Ford
249. His Girl Friday (1940)                    Hawks

103. Mr. Smith Goes to Washington (1939)            Capra
132. The Wizard of Oz (1939)                    Fleming
155. Gone with the Wind (1939)                    Fleming

64. Modern Times (1936)                    Chaplin

143. It Happened One Night (1934)                Capra

49. City Lights (1931)                        Chaplin
53. M (1931)                            Lang

216. All Quiet on the Western Front (1930)            Milestone

212. The Passion of Joan of Arc (1928)                Dreyer

92. Metropolis (1927)                        Lang
160. Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans (1927)            Murnau

120. The General (1926)                        Keaton

151. The Gold Rush (1925)                    Chaplin

220. Sherlock Jr. (1924)                        Keaton

158. The Kid (1921)                        Chaplin

And for those out there who like a good break down:

2000-11        69
1990-9        39
1980-9        29
1970-9        24
1960-9        24
1950-9        33
1940-9        17
1930-9        8
Before 1930    7

I'd say that is pretty balanced. This being said with the understanding that newer movies need time to balance and find their place. So far, the only people who have seen Drive saw it in theaters (i.e. people who were already favorable to it). In a month, Drive will be lucky to be on the list at all, let along the top half. There is also a very lopsided number of movies that had Oscar nominations from the past couple years. As time passes, those will disappear.

Another part of this balancing period is foreign films. Because they are foreign, they take more time to make it on the list. This is obvious. As I've already said, there is a rather remarkable number of foreign entries in the list, so the native bias is no impenetrable wall.

One year I would like to highlight: 1957. There are 7 films from 6 directors. You have to go to 1994 before another year even has 6. When you calculate in time, rankings, and number, this is by far the most dominate year on the list. And the one thing all the films have in common: All the directors have multiple entries on the list. In fact, the three most dominate directors on the list are all present.
This brings up another question of about the list. What is it really ranking?

Here's a list of directors with 3 entries or more:

Hitchcock    9    '40, '46, '48, '51, '54, '54, '58, '59, '60
Kubrick        8    '56, '57, '64, '68, '71, 75, '80, '87
Wilder        6    '44, '50, '53, '57, '59, '60
Scorsese    6    '76, '80, '90, '95, '06, '10
Nolan        5    '00, '05, '06, '08, '10
Speilberg    5    '75, '81, '89, '93, '98
Kurosawa    5    '50, '52, '54, '61, '85
Chaplin        5    '21, 25, '31, '36, '40
Terantino    5    '92, '94, '03, '04, '09
Miyazaki    5    '84, '88, '97, '01, '04
Leone        4    '65, '66, '68, '84
Cameron    4    '84, '86, '91, '09
Eastwood    4    '92, '03, '04, '08
Bergman    4    '57, '57, '66, '82
Coppola    3    '72, '74, '79
Jackson        3    '01, '02, '03
Scott        3    '79, '82, '00
Fincher        3    '95, '99, '10
Capra        3    '34, '39, '46
Polanski    3    '68, '74, '02
Lumet        3    '57, '75, '76
Aronofsky    3    '00, '08, '10
Coen        3    '96, '98, '07
Wyler        3    '46, '53, '59
Fellini        3    '54, '57, '63

That is almost half (47.2%) the movies on the list.  Then through in 24 directors with 2 entries and two cases of having two directors for three movies. That's more than 2/3s (68.8%) of the list favoring multiple showcases from a director.

That leaves 87 movies with a single entry director. And, as you move up the list, you see fewer and fewer of them. The highest single director movies are Star Wars and Empire, so those virtually count together. After that, City of God (also foreign) is at 18.

And, if you look at the trending on the list, there is greater director variance as it gets more recent.
What conclusions do I draw from this?

Mostly, I see that the list is very much reflective of the directors people see as great. "Paths of Glory" and "The Killing" are great movies, I'm sure, but would they be rated so highly without Kubrick's name? Perhaps. Hard to say, but you would have a hard time convincing me that, say, 9 of Hitchcock's movies are really in the top 250. I don't dislike Hitchcock, but that's steep, don't you think.

Then there's the curious case of Christopher Nolan. Great director with polarized appeal now that he has taken his talents to films with 100 million dollar budgets. He should be on this list, no question. There is an obvious fanboy pitfall in this list in that all 5 movies of his are in the top half of the list and dominantly so. Here's some scope for you. The Prestige is only 2 behind L.A. Confidential and 6 ahead of Raging Bull. Does it really belong there? No, but time will balance that. It more is of a show of Nolan support on the list than anything else.

In the end, the IMDB top 250 is a great list to go off to be a topical but well-rounded movie watcher. It has a greater quality than a list of highest grossing or dvd sales list would. And, it is more accessible (with a greater focus of entertainment over influence) than any AFI list. It is representative of the history of films without being to bogged down by equity for all time periods. Sure, there is heavy favoritism on modern movies. We live in modern times. That's forgivable.

I think it is safe to say I have seen a lot of movies (more than the average person my age without a doubt). Despite myself, I haven't even seen half the movies on this list (121/250). But, I've seen the top 12 (an expiration in Instant Queue away from the top 19) and 37 of the top 50. In other words, I'm doing a good job getting through these and I see the value in most of the movies I haven't yet seen. One of these days I'll hit the 90% mark on the list (one of my major movie goals). Until then, I'm enjoying the ride and trying to keep up.

What's the point of this examination? I figure if you are still reading this, you have a lot of free time or want to see where I am going with this. Sorry. This isn't a term paper, so no grand conclusion here. This is just my response to a story I saw a while back where someone broke down the Top 250, comparing how it evolved in a year's time. The determination struck me as "I't ok for now, but it is growing modern at an alarming rate". I wholeheartedly disagree. The list is never complete so one can never only look at where it is now. The specific ranks are not as important as what makes the list. No one can make a strong case for Life of Brian being 167 and The Graduate below it at 168. Sure, Harry Potter 8 at 133 can't last and Black Swan will take a dive from 113 eventually.

What one should pull from this is the feel for the movies. The list is representative of the evolution of film making. Starting with the early successes of Chaplin and Keaton in the silent age, the early epics from Gone with the Wind to Ben-Hur, the early experimentation of Bergman and Fellini, the great war films and Westerns of the 50s and 60s, the rise and decline of the New Hollywood and it's more into the age of blockbusters with films like One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest and Jaws in the same year representing each, the rebirth of the indie film in the 2000s, and evolutions within a genre ranging from Spartacus to Gladiator, The Bridge on the River Kwai to Saving Private Ryan, and even Star Wars to Star Trek.

...Wow. I need some better hobbies.

Movie Reaction: Drive

Note: I said "reaction", not "review". For me, that distinction means I don't have to write this like I'm trying to prove myself. Also, since I'm not trying to be objective or anything, I can be pretty light on the research. Now, onto the reaction for this week's movie.

I really enjoyed Drive. I went into it expecting good things based on reviews I'd read, didn't expect to be blown away, and wasn't. It's a good thing I read reviews beforehand because the previews do not do a proper job of preparing people for it. I learned this after a discussion with my mother who was under the impression this was like The Fast and the Furious. By my count, there's maybe 2 car chases in the movie, neither at the end. It's simply not that kind of action movie, if I would even call it an action movie.

Cast:
Great, although not star studded. I'm calling this a great example of how to cast an indie movie. They have a couple Oscar caliber actors (Ryan Gosling and Carey Mulligan), a few TV heavy hitters (Bryan Cranston from Breaking Bad, Christina Hendricks from Mad Men, and Ron Perlman from Sons of Anarchy), and a movie actor looking to play against type (Albert Brooks).
The only person who stands out is Gosling, He seems determined to make me like him this year. This isn't to imply I've ever disliked him, but he has never been known for choosing projects I adore. After "Crazy, Stupid Love" and now "Drive" (with "Ides of March" on the way) I think he's crossed the Dicaprio line to be an actor I actively like.

Director
I've never seen any of Refn's films. Bronson is the only one I'd even heard of. I am not studied in the ways of film making and never claim to be, but by my standards, this was very well done. The style is distinct (I'm calling it "European", but in a good way). He holds onto shots longer than I'd expect and does a good job of not overdoing the dialogue,

Plot
No surprises here. You could guess almost all of it from seeing the previews. This movie is not trying to send you in a direction you aren't expecting.
I also couldn't help but notice how, probably due to casting restraints, the criminal underworld of L.A. is surprisingly small. It's really more of an under-neighborhood than an underworld.

Soundtrack
I really like the soundtrack. It hit all the beats it needed to. Generally I don't even notice the music selection, so that I noticed it at all, says a lot.

Warnings
Know a couple things before going in. This is a very violent movie. It doesn't start like it, but it sure ends that way. Also, driving is important in the movie, but this is no high octane thriller. It is more of a payback, traversing through the criminal underworld movie, like a Guy Richie movie but without the funny.

Verdict (?): Weakly Recommend

Emmy Predictions (Part 8) 2012

Time for a few blind claims for next year.

1) Zooey Deschanel will get a nomination for Lead Actress in a Comedy series after a season of heavy lifting on New Girl's first season,

2) Shameless reclassifies itself as a Comedy and Emmy Rossum also get that Lead Actress nomination everyone assumed she would get this year.

3) Glee continues it's fall from grace, this time getting snubbed from Outstanding Comedy Series and getting noms. for Jane Lynch or Chris Colfer (not both).

4) Daily Show goes for 10 in a row. (Like it needed to be said)

5) Mad Men's streak ends, but the award doesn't go far. Mad Men fails to make history as the first 5 time drama winner due to Breaking Bad dethroning the champ.

6) More than Aaron Paul and Bryan Cranston get acting noms. from Breaking Bad.

7) Nick Offerman finally gets his nomination.

8) Community ends it's major Emmy snubbing with something small (Guest Actor for John Goodman, perhaps).

9) A Post-Carrell Office still gets an Outstanding Comedy Series nom. along with a nom. for Spader in whatever category he submits in.

10) <<<Biggest Longshot of this list>>> I watch at least one of the nominees for MiniSeries or Movie before the awards ceremony.

Emmy Post-mortem: What Went Wrong

By any measure, I think it's safe to say I batted about .500 this year. I don't know how that stacks up against years past, but I did OK.

Nailed It!
Comedy Series
Drama Series
Variety Series
Lead Actress Drama (I disagree, but whatever)
Lead Actress Mini Series
Supporting Actor Comedy
Supporting Actor Drama (Bam!)
Supporting Actress Drama (Bam!)
Directing Drama
Writing Comedy
Writing Variety

I Was Close
Reality Competition (Looks like last year was a fluke)
Lead Actor Comedy (That was mean)
Supporting Actress MiniSeries
Writing Drama

Fuck MiniSeries
MiniSeries
Lead Actor MiniSeries (Really? Not even the good Kennedy)
Supporting Actor MiniSeries
Directing MiniSeries
Writing MiniSeries

Really, if you don't count MiniSeries, I cleaned up.

Pie in My Face
Supporting Actress Comedy (Didn't see that coming)
Directing Comedy (I will never again doubt the power of Modern Family)
Lead Actor Drama (Glad to be wrong, but I never thought he had a real chance. Poor Connie Britton)
Lead Actress Comedy (Didn't see this coming at all)

One thing I am proud of. None of my last place guesses won. At least there's that.

Emmy Predictions (Part 7) - Comedy Series

Outstanding Comedy Series
30 Rock (NBC)
The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Glee (Fox)
Modern Family (ABC)
The Office (NBC)
Parks and Recreation (NBC)

I checked the numbers for this.
Since 2000, here are the facts about the winner of Outstanding Comedy Series:
10 of 11 best comedy series have been nominated for directing or writing.
    This includes 30 Rock, Modern Family, The Office
    The one exception, Friends in 2002 which was stacked with Lead Acting nominations.
9 od 11 have had a lead actor/actress nominated.
    This stat is moot thanks to Modern Family's no lead actor agreement.
Also, the only series with more acting, writing, and directing nominations than Modern Family this year was 2009 30 Rock, which ran away with the victory.

Let's do a breakdown.
In it's very nature, all shows stand a chance. No series was snubbed from major nominations like Family Guy in 2009 (special circumstances) or Scrubs in 2006, so all arguably have a chance.
If we go by the numbers, Parks and Rec has the worst chance to win with it's lone acting nomination.
The Office is not far behind with a lead actor nomination and a writing credit (both for the same episode).
Big Bang has two lead actor nominations which stacks up well against Glee's two supporting nominations and handful of guest acting spots (none of which won).
That makes it a two horse race between 30 Rock and Modern Family.

I think Big Bang's nomination is a good story and a  fitting reward for the changes they made this season.
The Office's nomination is relying too heavy of one or two good episodes. This year was Carrell's goodbye, not the show's.
Glee had a real shot to win last year, but I knew it's novelty would wear off fast.
This past season of 30 Rock was a return to form, but last year felt more like a fall from grace than a fluke. It will be very telling if it pulls off a win this year.
That leaves (Dark Horse) (My Favorite) Parks and Recreation as my pick for dark horse contender. The lack of nominations is not the whole story. Amy Poehler is a known quantity amongst voters. The cast is undeniably strong top to bottom and lack of nominations says more about a lack of awareness by voters than it does about the actors' abilities.
It is going to be another good year for (Winner) Modern Family though. Going back to 1993 (the year cable broke into the nominations game with Larry Sanders Show), only one comedy has had more major nominations (Acting, Directing, Writing) than Modern Family (10, by the way). That show would be 30 Rock in 2009 (12). It's hard for me to see it losing.

Biggest Oversite: Community
This was a pretty strong year for comedies. Shows like Louie have started getting some love. Other FX shows It's Always Sunny and Archer have done well in the fringes. ABC has overlooked, quality shows like Cougar Town. Almost all the shows I love got nominated. I know asking for 4 nominations from NBC is a lot (although it happened as recently as 1998, when there was only 5 nominations), but Community is the most experimental show on TV and should be recognized for it. I know you can't boot Office of Carrell's goodbye season. Glee still has too many fans. And, I am happy for Big Bang, but it is a shame they was no room for this wonderful series.

Emmy Predictions (Part 6) - Drama Series

Yeah. I need more to do on my days off.

Outstanding Drama Series  
Boardwalk Empire (HBO)
Dexter (Showtime)
Friday Night Lights (The 101 Network/NBC)
Game of Thrones (HBO)
The Good Wife (CBS)
Mad Men (AMC)

Some numbers to start.
Since 2000, here are the facts about the winner of Outstanding Drama Series:
11 of 11 have been nominated for directing.
    Only Boardwalk Empire and Game of Thrones.
11 of 11 have a supporting actor/actress nomination.
    Mad Men, The Good Wife, Boardwalk Empire, and Game of Thrones.
10 of 11 have a writing nomination. (Only exception: Lost 2005)
    Mad Men, Friday Night Lights, Game of Thrones
10 of 11 have a lead actor/actress nomination. (Only exception: 24 2006)
    Mad Men, The Good Wife, Boardwalk Empire, Friday Night Lights. and Dexter

If I was to make a score card for this year based on that, it would look like this:
32 - Game of Thrones
32 - Boardwalk Empire
31 - Mad Men
21 - The Good Wife
20 - Friday Night Lights
10 - Dexter

What does this mean exactly? Nothing in the end. It indicates a few things though.
1) Mad Men has reason to be worried. It scores an 42 it's past three season. The other shows to do that in this time (Lost and Damages) had fewer nominations and the Directing and Writing were for the same episode.
2) Maybe Game of Thrones has a better shot than people give it credit for.
3) FNL and Good Wife may not have the proper footing for this.

Statistics only get you so far, especially for something as subjective as awards, so here's my opinion on the situation.
Dexter stands no chance. The season was lacking. Not to say it was bad, but not the kind of showcase needed to break through (4th season had a chance and should've won).
It seems like too many people are pushing too hard for The Good Wife to be a serious contender. I could be dead wrong on this, but if Marguiles couldn't even muster a win last year when it was virtually a lock, I'm selling on the series dethroning Mad Men.
Here's where it gets hard.
Despite the numbers working in it's favor, Game of Thrones doesn't even have it's network's backing. I'm not sure I believe the season was exceptional enough to win either, and I still think the true fantasy angle will hurt it in the end.
Critics really seem convinced that there is a chance that voters will suddenly acknowledge Friday Night Lights and send it off with a win. I think the nomination is the send off. Asking for it to go from perpetually ignored to upset, sentimental favorite winner, is asking a little much, don't you think? I'd love to see it happen though.
Sure, HBO is a nominations bohemoth and (Dark Horse) Boardwalk Empire is the freshest and more imposing challenger to Mad Men this year, but people forget that HBO doesn't have a lot of success winning. The Sopranos (the only of HBO's greatly acclaimed series to actually win) only won twice. Several of the years it lost the Sopranos dominated the nominations field. And, shows like Six Feet Under and on the comedy side, Larry Sanders show, collected nominations for years without any success. What I'm going at here is that if it's HBO vs. the field, I'm picking the field everytime until I'm given reason to think otherwise.
Yep. That leaves (Winner) (My Favorite) Mad Men. And, for the first time, I can say I honestly think it deserves it. House, Dexter, Damages, and Breaking Bad all had strong cases for different seasons the past 3 years, but 4th season is my favorite of the series and has some of the strongest episodes of the show. Let me help you out. 2011 - Mad Men. 2012 - Breaking Bad. Come back to me in 2013 and we'll talk.

Biggest Oversite:  Justified
I've heard good things about it. HBO proved last year with True Blood sneaking in that voters leave one nomination reserved for an HBO series. The same should go for FX with it's amazing body of work the past decade. Call Justified the most recent 7th nominee from FX.

Emmy Predictions (Part 5) - Miniseries, Movies, and Variety

Outstanding Miniseries or TV Movie
Cinema Verite (HBO)
Downton Abbey (PBS)
The Kennedys (ReelzChannel)
Mildred Pierce (HBO)
The Pillars of the Earth (Starz)
Too Big to Fail (HBO)

This is a category I know little about and care little about. No real reason for this. Like most people, I simply never have. It is really unfair for the TV movies under the new combined category. How can a single movie compete with the depth and breadth of a mini series?
First thing's first. If your network pluralizes with the letter 'z', I can't take you seriously. So, goodbye The Kennedys and The Pillars of the Earth. They each have their own issues like The Kennedys getting dropped by History channel after putting down major cash for it.
This category is HBO's bitch, so I counting out Downton Abbey for no other reason than it's network affiliation.
From here it gets easy. (My Favorite) Cinema Verita is the nominee I most want to see because the topic interests me the most.
(Dark Horse) Too Big to Fail sounds like it is calling out a bluff. I'm putting it on upset alert due to sheer start power though.
That leaves (Winner) Mildred Pierce to win. It's an HBO miniseries. I don't even care what it's about. That's enough for me.

Outstanding Variety, Music or Comedy Series
The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)
Conan (TBS)
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central)
Late Night with Jimmy Fallon (NBC)
Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
Saturday Night Live (NBC)

How to narrow these down? Easiest to start with the new guy. I get the feeling no one told voters that Late Night is no longer hosted by Connan O'Brien. That's the only reason I can think that Lopez Tonight didn't get consideration...What's that now? Canceled?! Bummer.
Otherwise, this is a very exclusive clubs with a lot of bridesmaids.
This is the 4th consecutive nomination for Saturday Night Live, but you have to go back to 1993 for the last of it's 2 wins. Considering the wins came for it's first season and then in it's 90s Renaisance, this was not the sort of breakthrough season it needs to win.
Real Time with Bill Maher is celebrating it's 7th consecutive nomination (I still don't know why) with no sign of picking up steam.
With 6 nominations and some wins for writing, The Colbert Report is perhaps the strongest contender.
My vote for dark horse has got to be the man who's name is chased by emmy nominations: Conan O'Brien. While this is just (Dark Horse) Conan's first season, his stint on The Tonight Show and Late Night have all bagged nominations. Six, in fact, since Leno's last nomination. Team Coco all the way!
The winner though? Let's see. 11 straight nominations. 8 consecutive wins. Picking (Winner) (My Favorite) The Daily Show is the easiest pick of the night.

Biggest Oversite: Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson
I'm pretty new to this show, but I've watched enough to know that it is vastly more entertaining than it's NBC counterpart. Honestly, I have one theory as to why Late Night got the nomination instead: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSAwOcFr_VE

Emmy Predictions (Part 4) - Leading Roles

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
 Is there any category with a well defined a top tier as this one? These guys are a cut above the rest. Also, thanks to Bryan Cranston's run and going back to some excessive James Spader love, there's a backlog of deserving winners with no hardware to show for it.
(Winner) (My Favorite) Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
"The Suitcase" (AMC)
Hasn't Mad Men won enough? Yes, but none of the actors have and this is the best showcase episode of any actor to boot.
(Dark Horse) Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire)
"A Return to Normalcy" (HBO)
There's a part of me that things voters are going to say "make up calls be damned" and go with the exciting newcomer, welcoming in the second coming of James Gandolfini.
Michael C. Hall (Dexter)
"Teenage Wasteland" (Showtime)
He had a much better chance last year (great season, cancer, etc.). He could still do it, but the window is closing considering how sub-par season 5 was.
Hugh Laurie (House)
"After Hours" (Fox)
Couldn't win last year with his "House flew over the Cuckoo's Nest" mini-movie. Laurie seems destined to always be the bridesmaid, never the bride.
Kyle Chandler (Friday Night Lights)
"Always" (The 101 Network/NBC)
Does a fantastic job. Good, not great submission episode. The problem with him is the strength of what he does is all about withholding. He always says one less thing than you want him to. That doesn't translate well to Emmy votes.
Timothy Olyphant (Justified)
"Reckoning" (FX)
I'm just happy to see him nominated. I think a win, given the competition level and more familiar names is asking a little much.

Biggest Oversite: None

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series 
(Winner) Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife)
"In Sickness" (CBS)
She had this locked up last year. Still don't know how she lost, but...ok, I don't really have a logic to this. At best, this is a makeup call. Even though I don't generally believe the Emmys really do makeup calls, I'm calling it here. She does a fine job on the show too.
(Dark Horse) (My Favorite) Elisabeth  Moss (Mad Men)
"The Suitcase" (AMC)
Up till ten seconds ago I had her picked as a virtual lock to win this off the strength of her submission episode which is a force. As last year's win proved, however, it's not always that simple.
Connie Britton (Friday Night Lights)
"Always" (The 101 Network/NBC)
She should have a collection of trophies by now, but that's not the way the world works. Great submission from her. Not likely enough though.
Mireille Enos (The Killing)
"Missing" (AMC)
It's always hard to predict how freshman shows will do. Due to the competion at the top, I think the nomination is her ceiling.
Mariska Hargitay (Law & Order: Special Victims Unit)
"Rescue" (NBC)
I think it's required by law to nominate her. She does good work, but for how underrecognized the show has always been (even when it was fresh), I don't understand how she keeps getting nominations.
Kathy Bates (Harry's Law)
"Innocent Man" (NBC)
Oscar winner on a TV show. Might as well nominate her.

Biggest Oversite: Emmy Rossum (Shameless)
The show fucked itself by labeling it a Drama rather than a Comedy. If you had the choice between Emmy Rossum and Martha Plimpton for that last Lead Comedy Actress spot, who do you think gets a nomination?

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
(Winner) (My Favorite) Steve Carell (The Office)
"Goodbye, Michael" (NBC)
Everything is working in his favor this year. Episode written entirely for him, his celebrity stock has never been higher, and he has that "Susan Lucci"/"How long before he finally wins" thing going on.
(Dark Horse) Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)
"The Agreement Dissection" (CBS)
He won last year. I don't see him as a multiple winner though. He's good. Not that good. In fact, he would be a great multiple winner as a supporting actor like David Hyde Pierce, but he somehow got bumped up to lead actor. I think this will hurt him in the long run. I could be wrong though (I generally am).
Alec Baldwin (30 Rock)
"Respawn" (NBC)
Multiple winners can never be counted out. He had some better episodes he could've submitted. His crazed turn in "Respawn" actually made me rather dislike the episode. I'd be surprised if he got love for that submission.
Louis C.K. (Louie)
"Bully" (FX)
As an unknown entity with the Emmys, I can't put Louie any higher. I'd love to and honestly, he is very strong in that episode (hard not to be as the only regular cast member on the show). I'm holding off for a year at least.
Matt LeBlanc (Episodes)
"Episode 107" (Showtime)
They know this isn't Friends (or for that matter Joey) Matt LeBlanc, right? What's that? They don't. Oh. Nomination makes sense then.
Johnny Galecki (The Big Bang Theory)
"The Benefactor Factor" (CBS)
Enough pixels have been wasted about him not deserving the nomination. It's a light year. He won't win, but that's no reason to not enjoy himself.

Biggest Oversite: Thanks to Modern Family's Supporting nomination agreement, Lead Actor had plenty of room for any suiter.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
(Winner) Laura Linney (The Big C)
"Pilot" (Showtime)
I'm expecting 3 for 3 for the Showtime women. I don't agree with it, but the C is for Cancer. That's tough to beat.
(Dark Horse) (My Favorite) Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation)
"Flu Season" (NBC)
Lead Actress on the best Comedy of TV. I think she has a real chance to win since she is the only part of Parks and Rec. the Emmys are aware of and "Flu Season" is one hell of a good episode for her.
Tina Fey (30 Rock)
"Double-Edged Sword" (NBC)
Former winner. Good episode. Emmys love 30 Rock. Enough said.
Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie)
"Rat Falls" (Showtime)
She won last year. Her stock has fallen considerably though.
Melissa McCarthy (Mike & Molly)
"First Date" (CBS)
Hmm, McCarthy is currently the only Gilmore Girls alum. to ever be nominated. Explain that to me, please.
Martha Plimpton (Raising Hope)
"Say Cheese" (Fox)
I thought she was a supporting actress. Whatever. It's not like she's going to win. You can quote me on that.

Biggest Oversite: Toni Collette (US of Tara)
I've not watch the show, but I hear good things. I'd certainly pick her over Edie Falco.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
(Winner) Laurence Fishburne
Thurgood (HBO)
I got it down to Luther and Thurgood which is a simple equation. Racial Issues vs. Religious Issues. HBO vs. BBC.
(Dark Horse) Idris Elba
Luther (BBC One)
I haven't seen any of these. This guess is as good as any I'm going to have.
Edgar Ramirez
Carlos (Sundance Channel)
If the character you play is also the title of the movie, you stand a pretty good chance.
Greg Kinnear
The Kennedys (ReelzChannel)
This miniseries had a major fall from grace. I think Kinnear's JFK has a slightly better shot at an upset than Pepper's RFK.
Barry Pepper
The Kennedys (ReelzChannel)
Shit, I don't know.
William Hurt
Too Big to Fail (HBO)
The movie didn't really have a lead, so he won't win lead.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
(Winner) Kate Winslet
Mildred Pierce (HBO)
This isn't the Oscars. She's winning.
Diane Lane
Cinema Verite (HBO)
If Cinema Verite was a miniseries as well, I'd probably give Lane the edge.
Elizabeth McGovern
Downton Abbey (PBS)
At least I know who she is.
Jean Marsh
Upstairs, Downstairs (BBC)
Umm, whatever.
Taraji P. Henson
Taken from Me: The Tiffany Rubin Story (Lifetime)
Lifetime Original Movie and this is no "Burning Bed".

Emmy Predictions (Part 3) - Forgotten Categories

Shit. Looks like I forgot some categories for Sunday. I know, all of you were so worried.

Outstanding Reality-Competition Program 
 (Winner) Top Chef (Bravo)
Last year's winner in a category known for consistency.
(Dark Horse) The Amazing Race (CBS)
Granted, the consistency of which I speak was from this show winning every year from it's inception until last year. Here's where we determine fluke or fall.
American Idol (Fox)
Dancing with the Stars (ABC)
These two are here because of ratings. Neither had exceptional seasons. They had to fill the list somehow.
Project Runway (Lifetime)
Is this the one hosted by Heidi Klum and Tyra Banks? If I don't know, how can I expect the voters to care.
So You Think You Can Dance (Fox)
No. I don't think I can dance. Quit asking and leave me alone.

Biggest Oversite: Ninja Warrior
Say what you will. It is still more entertaining than the above.

Outstanding Writing for a Miniseries, Movie, or Dramatic Special 
(Winner) (My Favorite) Steven Moffat (Sherlock: A Study in Pink)
I like Moffat. Give him the win.
(Dark Horse) Todd Haynes and Jon Raymond (Mildred Pierce)
I don't care.
Julian Fellowes (Downtown Abbey)
Still don't care.
Peter Gould (Too Big to Fail)
Caring even less now.
Heidi Thomas (Upstairs/Downstairs)
I will be taking a bathroom break when they hand this out.

Outstanding Directing for a Miniseries or Movie
Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini (Cinema Verite)
This probably has enough style for the win.
Olivier Assayas (Carlos)
I don't care.
Brian Percival (Downtown Abbey)
Still don't care.
Todd Haynes (Mildred Pierce)
Caring even less now.
Curtis Hanson (Too Big to Fail)
I will be taking a bathroom break when they hand this out.

Outstanding Writing for a Variety, Music or Comedy Series
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Colbert (and co.) and Stewart (and co.) have been traded blows with this for years. It's the Daily Show's turn. That's as much as I can go into that.
The Colbert Report
Late Night with Jimmy Fallon
Saturday Night Live
Conan

Emmy Predictions (Part 2) - Supporting Players

 Holy shit! Two days of posting in a row. I MUST be bored.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series 
(Winner) (My Favorite) Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
"Baelor" (HBO)
There is a high probability that I am letting my own preferences cloud my vision, but I went from recognizing Dinklage to knowing his name and body of work simply from the buzz surrounding him in the role. He is certainly the most deserving, if not the actual front runner.
(Dark Horse) Alan Cumming (The Good Wife)
"Silver Bullet" (CBS)
I had to consult other sources here since I know little or nothing about this show. Cumming is the meatier character of the two nominated for this show. I don't see Good Wife ever getting the big awards, but it's acting is nominated enough that I see it sneaking away with at least one.
John Slattery (Mad Men)
"Hands and Knees" (AMC)
Nominated every season the show's been on. The character never has great showcase episodes (one of the "body or work" guys that don't tend to ever win). In a world when Mad Men makes an acting sweep for all the years not winning, Slattery could finally get his win.
Andre Braugher (Men of a Certain Age)
"Let the Sunshine In" (TNT)
Past Emmy winners shouldn't be overlooked. Canceled series though. Not favorable odds.
Josh Charles (The Good Wife)
"Closing Arguments" (CBS)
I liked him in Sports Night, but that was a decade ago. Goodwill doesn't extend that long.
Walton Goggins (Justified)
"The I of the Storm" (FX)
Maybe someday. This nomination is more of a makeup call for years of being overlooked. I think that's as much as he can hope for this year.

Biggest Oversite: Michael Kenneth Williams (Boardwalk Empire)
I just want an excuse to say "Omar's Comin'".

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series 
(Winner) (My Favorite) Margo Martindale (Justified)

"Brothers Keeper" (FX)
She has the strongest submission episode in the field and getting nominated is the hard part. I like her odds.
(Dark Horse) Christina Hendricks (Mad Men)
"The Summer Man" (AMC)
I have a strong suspicion Mad Men is getting some Acting Emmy love this year. That leaves Hendricks as a good dark horse.
Archie Panjabi (The Good Wife)
"Getting Off" (CBS)
Last year's winner. I don't expect a repeat. Then again, no one saw her win last year coming, so anything can happen.
Christine Baranski (The Good Wife)
"Silver Bullet" (CBS)
If not for the win last year, I'd pick her over Panjabi.
Michelle Forbes (The Killing)
"Pilot" (AMC)
The grief stricken mother thing doesn't get old yet in the pilot. That works in her favor.
Kelly MacDonald (Boardwalk Empire)
"Family Limitation" (HBO)
It's Buscemi's show right now. Give it some time to grow for other actors.

Biggest Oversite: Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones)
She's more of an "on the rise" candidate right now, but look for her in the future.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Thanks Modern Family for crowding a deep field with more deserving candidates.
(Winner) Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
"Good Cop Bad Dog" (ABC)
I have no idea about this category. There is no obvious pick. I think Burrell is funniest in his submission episode and with 4 nominees, it's hard to imagine Modern Family not winning this.
(Dark Horse) Chris Colfer (Glee)
"Grilled Cheesus" (FOX)
The only strong thing about Glee these days. I think the Chris Colfer awards bandwagon has already stopped. I could be wrong and he could be adding to his collection Sunday.
Ed O'Neill (Modern Family)
"The Kiss" (ABC)
Al Bundy has never been nominated before. He is still a TV legend and I could see him getting some love.
Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family)
"Halloween" (ABC)
He might be my favorite on the show, but I think he is drowned out by Stonestreet in too many scenes.
Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family)
"Mother's Day (Modern Family)" (ABC)
He is no Michael Richards. No David Hyde Piece. No Brad Garrett. He is not building an Emmy collection.
Jon Cryer (Two and a Half Men)
"The Immortal Mr. Billy Joel" (CBS)
He got this out of pity for his situation. End of story.

Biggest Oversite:
So stacked.
(My Favorite) Nick Offerman (Parks and Recreation) - The show is nominated, but Offerman isn't? There is no justice. I'm still hoping for write in campaign (is that even possible).
Neil Patrick Harris (HIMYM) - They pick this past year to stop nominating him? Really?
Jason Segal (HIMYM) - The only other strong thing about this otherwise atrocious season.
Danny Pudi (Community) - He is asked to have more shades than any actor of TV and does it well.
Donald Glover (Community) - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UajEx7iU9-M Enough said.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
(Winner) Jane Lynch (Glee)
"Funeral" (FOX)
She has a good dramatic submission episode and she's the host of Wiig's SNL episode. Unfair.
(Dark Horse) Sofía Vergara (Modern Family)
"Slow Down Your Neighbors" (ABC)
She is everyone's favorite from Modern Family. I still like Julie Bowen, but Vergara does do an impressive job.
Betty White (Hot in Cleveland)
"Free Elka" (TV Land)
People love Betty White. This role might've deserved an Emmy in 1981. I can't see it now.
(My Favorite) Julie Bowen (Modern Family)
"Strangers on a Treadmill" (ABC)
She does good work. Vergara is the standout though. Sorry. At least she'll always have Happy Gilmore.
Kristen Wiig (Saturday Night Live)
"Host: Jane Lynch" (NBC)
Bridesmaids my bump her profile, but I don't think enough. It's almost too unfair to put an SNL performance against recorded, scripted stuff. Apples and Oranges.
Jane Krakowski (30 Rock)
"Queen of Jordan" (NBC)
Nominated out of habit, quite frankly, and a weak submission to boot.

Biggest Oversite: A lot of good ones overlooked, but none as egregious as the supporting men.
Heather Morris (Glee) - The hidden gem in the Glee cast. It would be wise for them to increase her burn in future seasons.
Mayim Bailik (Big Bang Theory) - Her performance was -meh- but her impact on the show, worth recognizing.
Allison Brie (Community) - More than a pretty face (and not just her face). She keeps getting better on the show. I wouldn't have guessed Trudy had it in her from watching Mad Men.
Jenna Fischer (The Office) - It's sad that she only has one nomination for this role so far. She always played off Carrell so well.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
(Winner) Paul Giamatti
Too Big to Fail (HBO)
Highest profile name tends to do well for a category like this.
(Dark Horse) James Woods
Too Big to Fail (HBO)
Considering this is a movie full of supporting parts with big actors, I think one of the nominees is going to win.
(My Favorite) Guy Pearce
Mildred Pierce (HBO)
I'm edging him over Byrne simply because his name so closely matches the Mini-series.
Brian F. O'Byrne
Mildred Pierce (HBO)
Don't know who he is. Still think he has a better shot than The Kennedys
Tom Wilkinson
The Kennedys (ReelzChannel)
It fell so far that it ended up on the ReelzChannel. I can't see it winning.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
(Winner) Mare Winningham
Mildred Pierce (HBO)
When in doubt, go with the person I haven't heard of. Safe strategy in a category I know nothing about.
(Dark Horse) Maggie Smith
Downton Abbey (PBS)
Can't count an Oscar winner out.
Melissa Leo
Mildred Pierce (HBO)
An Oscar and an Emmy in the same year? Tall order.
(My Favorite) Evan Rachel Wood
Mildred Pierce (HBO)
I feel like she's still too indie to start winning awards yet.
Eileen Atkins
Upstairs Downstairs (PBS)
Who?

Emmy Predictions (Part 1)

I'm bored. No one reads this anyways, so who is going to care if I switch from my normal topic.

Here's how it works. I've ranked the nominees by most to least likely to win (according to me). I'll label which is my personal pick as well.

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series  
(Winner) (My Favorite) Mad Men "The Suitcase"
I may question the wins the past few seasons. "The Suitcase" is a force to be reckoned with. I think it's the front runner to win. I'd be surprised if it didn't win.
(Dark Horse) Friday Night Lights "Always"
If there is a dark horse here, this is it. Those who believe the Emmys have a sense of "make up call" like this one to win, which I would have to agree with. A show as under-awarded as this deserves some wins in it's final season. I, however, doubt the power of the "make up call".
Mad Men "Blowing Smoke"
Call it a numbers game or history repeating itself, but Mad Men is winning one way or the other. I find it hard to believe "The Suitcase" could lose to this, but the odds are overwhelmingly in Mad Men's favor.
The Killing "Pilot"
Strong pilot for a show that went downhill throughout the season. Too much competition though.
Game of Thrones "Baelor"
I would put money on the writing of this episode being better than The Killing. That said, I think fantasy writing is too hard for voters to get past.

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
(Winner) Modern Family "Caught in the Act"
Very funny episode. Not my favorite. However, I'm not seeing a way to stop the Modern Family machine at this point.
(Dark Horse) (My Favorite) Louie "Poker/Divorce"
Major darkhorse potential. I'm sure anyone could be convinced by that opening scene alone. They say getting nominated is the hardest part. Compared to the other nominated episodes, this is a level above. The only shows with episodes that could compete were snubbed.
30 Rock "Reaganing"
Let's see, 11 nominations (2 wins) in 5 seasons. Yeah, I think it stands a chance.
The Office "Goodbye, Michael"
Apparently I'm selling on this episode's chances a lot more than other people. All the Michael stuff is great, but the B-story with D'angelo and Andy really holds it down.
Episodes "Episode 107"
How this got nominated over ANY of the 40 episodes of Community or Parks and Recreation that weren't nominated I will never know. Just about any episode of Cougar Town, It's Always Sunny, or any of the other nominated series' episodes either. Sigh. At least there is no way it can win.

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series 
Really? No Mad Men nominations? Okay.
(Winner) (My Favorite) Boardwalk Empire "Boardwalk Empire (Pilot)"
The directory, you ask: Some guy named Martin Scorsese. Heard of him?
(Dark Horse) Boardwalk Empire "Anastasia"
Boardwalk is about the direction. Other aspects are good, but the style is where it will get it's awards. If the pilot somehow loses, the other Boardwalk submission gets it.
Game of Thrones "Winter Is Coming"
A fantasy world allows some freedom. While I think the writing may be a bit much for voters, there's a chance they could appreciate the direction.
The Killing "Pilot"
Nover doubt the power of a pilot. Generally speaking, they get the most time for production and post. That could work in it's favor.
The Borgias "The Poisoned Chalice/The Assassin"
Kind of surprised to see this series nominated. I haven't seen this episode, but what I have seen of the series is a little over-directed.

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
(Winner) 30 Rock "Live Show"
The most impressive job of any of the nominees, directing what is normally a single camera show as a multi camera show and doing it live.
(Dark Horse) (My Favorite) How I Met Your Mother "Subway Wars"
A great vintage HIMYM episode. Also, Pamela Fryman should be recognized considering she has directed EVERY episode. That's unheard of these days.
Modern Family "See You Next Fall"
Modern Family "Halloween"
Modern Family "Slow Down Your Neighbors"
I think this is going to be a dominate year for Modern Family, but the other nominees have it.

More to come as I remember to post them.

Driving

So, this was more of a result of me riffing at work under the theme of driving. Not as coherent as most of these other, mildly coherent posts.


The Bad Direction Friend:
Everyone has that friend, at leat on a city to city basis, who can't give directions if his life depended on it. Even with the simplest directions, he can get you lost. My buddy will say something like "It's 3 lights past the expressway, on the left, but, you'll be coming from the other side...so you will want to make a right at the first light past 3rd street, which, from where you will be coming is the fifth right, ignoring the lights." ...The damndest thing is, he gives directions so badly because he knows everything too well. He's trying to give the shortcuts to people from out of town. That family from the Texas Chainsaw Massacre owes everything to this person.

I've listened to my friend give directions to someone who knew where they were going and got them lost. If he could channel this ability into honest misdirection, he could make a killing as one of those change-up artists getting change for a 20 at a store or something.

That's not to say I'm better. I know maybe 10 street names in this city on a good day. My directions are reliant on landmarks that may or may not be there: "You want to look for a McDonalds on the left. No, they changed that to a bank, but it's across the street from a Valvoline, or a Thortons: some sort of car place." Normally, I try to arrange it so that I'm giving real time directions over the phone, which always play out like a game of Telephone (get it?) since the passenger, not the driver, always seems to be the one on the phone with you. Ever notice how those calls cut out 75% more than any other time you're on the phone (except perhaps when the doctor calls to give the results on the test)?


GPS:
 I'm undecided on which type of person annoys me more: the person who insists that GPS is always wrong, or the one who insists it's always right. Both are annoying... No, the one who thinks it's wrong is worse, almost always. Even if my GPS is wrong and I'm convinced it won't be I'm only a street or a turn off. I make it most of the way there. The person who thinks the GPS is always wrong acts like it is going to accidentally send me to Topeka and then he proceeds to give me detailed instructions from the moment I pull out of my driveway. Look, I have trouble remembering a grocery list when it is for s beer run (Hint: get beer. Nothing else matters). Odds of me remembering your second-to-second 43 step instructions are about as likely as me picking up a date on the drive there. In fact, I used to get 43-step instructions, but I got it from map-quest and still found that too tedious. That's why I got the GPS!

Other Part of Town:
 I also don't do well when people say an area of town like I'm supposed to know what that is. And, I'm sorry, but saying something is "over in Peewee Valley, by the book store" is not considered helpful, especially if I don't know where Peewee Valley is. Here's a good direction strategy for everyone out there. Start big, then add precision, fill in the step by step when needed. Louisville. Yes, I know that. Bardstown road. Gotcha. I can get there. Trevallian. I don't know that. I'm coming from the Expressway onto Bardstown. How do I get there? If your first instinct is to start your directions anywhere other than Bardstown road, you are doing it wrong.



Passengers:
I know I tend to drive my friends crazy when I drive them around: the A-type drivers, that is, who love driving. I hate driving and intend to get a chauffeur as soon as I can reasonably afford one. Because of this, I learn only what I must to get anywhere. I don't do shortcuts. I do auto-pilot. If it is a choice between you telling me where I need to turn, when I need to switch lanes, and driving down back roads or turning my brain off, going the one way I know how, and taking five minutes longer, I will make the same choice every time, so shut the fuck up and don't touch my iPod.