Welcome
to another scaled down edition of my Oscar predictions. In past years I write
up incredibly thorough Oscar predictions that are as much a history lesson as
an attempt to accurately predict the Oscar winners. Maybe years of picking
winners poorly has worn me down. Maybe CODA’s unprecedented win last
year finally broke me. Maybe the place on the calendar this year threw off my
timing and ability to prepare. Whatever the reason, I don’t have it in me to
type up a dozen posts of Oscar fanfare this year. I still like talking through
my thinking though, so you’ll get it in one big post this year.
A quick note. When I
talk about previous Oscar years, I refer to the year the film was being awarded
for. So, CODA won the 2021 Oscar even though the ceremony took place in 2022. I
find that easier to keep track of what Oscars I’m talking about.
* - Indicates a movie I've seen.
(In order from most to least likely to
win)
Best Live Action Short Film
1.
Le
pupille
2.
An
Irish Goodbye
3.
The
Red Suitcase
4.
Night
Ride
5.
Ivalu
I’m writing this before
I’ve even attempted to watch any of the nominated shorts. Watching them only
seems to make me do worse, because I try to pick the best one. Instead, I’ll go
with the easiest. What works well here is familiar faces (The Long Goodbye
– 2021), something winsome and charming (Sing – 2017), or both (The
Neighbor’s Window – 2019). I don’t see anyone a voter would recognize in
these nominees, so I’ll go with the one about cute little French girls that’s
on Disney+ (Le pupille). If not that, An Irish Goodbye seems to
be in English and has a low chance of emotionally scarring anyone in 30 minutes
or less.
Best Documentary Short Subject
1.
Stranger
at the Gate
2.
How
Do You Measure a Year?
3.
The
Elephant Whisperers
4.
The
Martha Mitchell Effect
5.
Haulout
I’m very, very bad at
this category. I’ve figured this out though: Academy voters only like to pick
something with a social bent at long as it isn’t too much of a bummer. Haulout
sounds very sad, so I don’t think it stands a chance. How Do You Measure a
Year? could win this for the same reason Boyhood was so awarded a
decade ago. The Martha Mitchell Effect feels too much like it’s a
history lesson. The Elephant Whisperers sounds like it could have a My
Octopus Teach effect on the voters. I don’t know what to do with Stranger
at the Gate. It sounds a little too pointed in its message for it to get a
“cause vote”. However, Milala is a producer.
Best Animated Short Film
1.
My
Year of Dicks
2.
The
Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
3.
An
Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
4.
Ice
Merchants
5.
*The
Flying Sailor
I feel way too close to
My Year of Dicks, since nominee Pamela Ribon appears to be friends with
the hosts of half the podcasts I listen to and has been making the rounds. It
seems like a fun watch though and the title is attention grabbing. If not that,
The Boy, The Mole, etc. has the most famous voice cast and looks the
most like a short that would show up before a Disney movie (always a good
sign). An Ostrich has a funny enough title to push it to the win. Ice
Merchants and The Flying Sailor are a little too dreamy and esoteric
to expect a win.
Best Animated Feature Film
1.
*Guillermo
del Toro's Pinocchio
2.
*Marcel
the Shell with Shoes On
3.
*Turning
Red
4.
Puss
in Boots: The Last Wish
5.
*The
Sea Beast
Only one of these had
Best Picture buzz, so I’ll go with that one. The people behind Marcel
are likely to have a lot of friends though. And never fully count out a Pixar
offering. Pinicchio has swept the precursor field though in a way that
gives little doubt about the Oscar.
Best Documentary Feature
1.
*Navalny
2.
All
the Beauty and the Bloodshed
3.
*Fire
of Love
4.
All
That Breathes
5.
A
House Made of Splinters
Fire of Love and Navalny have split the precursors. Navalny
though has won the awards (Producer’s Guild, BAFTA) that suggest more broad
support. American Factory, Icarus, and Citizenfour do
indicate this is a place where voter politics have a place, especially when the
target is someone as disliked as Putin. Despite the ACE and DGA awards, I’m low
on Fire of Love. It’s got some great footage, but it doesn’t have the
same personal feel as Free Solo. I guess I’ll go with All the Beauty
and the Bloodshed as the spoiler instead. It was a highly regarded doc,
director Laura Poitras has an Oscar already, and it’s an opioid crisis movie.
That’s a formula for Oscar success. All That Breathes isn’t as feel-good
as My Octopus Teacher and I’ve simply heard no one talk about A House
Made of Splinters.
Best International Feature Film
1.
*All
Quiet on the Western Front
2.
Argentina,
1985
3.
Close
4.
The
Quiet Girl
5.
EO
If you think anything
other than All Quiet on the Western Front, a Best Picture nominee and
the nomination leader this year, has a chance to win this, then you are very
bold. I’ll say this much though. The one about a donkey does feel like the
least likely to win.
Best Visual Effects
1.
*Avatar:
The Way of Water
2.
*Top
Gun: Maverick
3.
*All
Quiet on the Western Front
4.
*Black
Panther: Wakanda Forever
5.
*The
Batman
Unless it’s a Marvel
movie or a Planet of the Apes movie, the Academy voters don’t like to
throw curve balls here*. A Marvel movie hasn’t won this since Spider-Man 2
in 2004. Despite its massive breakthrough, the original Black Panther
couldn’t even crack the nomination field. As long as it has been for Marvel,
it’s been even longer for DC. Even the Nolan Batman movies couldn’t get a win.
While All Quiet got a ton on nominations, I just don’t see the larger
Academy support carrying it through to a win here. I think Maverick is hurt by how real it looks.
People think the special effects are Tom Cruise actually flying planes, not all
the supporting effects they don’t notice. This is all academic though. Avatar
won in 2009. The Way of Water continues to be an effects marvel
regardless of what else you may think of it. While the Visual Effect Society
Awards aren’t a terrific precursor, it’s hard to find a film as dominant as The
Way of Water that didn’t also go on to win the Oscar.
*What I’m referring to
is when precursor awards like the BAFTAs of Visual Effects Society arrive on a consensus
like Dawn of the Planet of
the Apes, then the Oscars give it to another movie.
Best Sound
1.
*Top
Gun: Maverick
2.
*Elvis
3.
*All
Quiet on the Western Front
4.
*Avatar:
The Way of Water
5.
*The
Batman
This one is tricky. The
Batman is the only obvious one to throw out. It’s hard to throw out the
idea of The Way of Water gobbling up the technical awards until you
remember that Avatar lost this in 2009 to The Hurt Locker. The
precursors are pretty split between Maverick, Elvis, and All
Quiet. I’m not that sold on All Quiet. It got all these nominations
when individual branches voted. The final voting is open to everyone, and I
just don’t see the love continuing. They really do love war movies for the
Sound award though (1917, Dunkirk, Hacksaw Ridge, American
Sniper, etc). They like music films just as much though (Sound of Metal,
Bohemian Rhapsody, Whiplash, etc.). A couple things push it in
favor of Maverick for me though, as much as the Bohemian Rhapsody
dominance in 2018 has me shook. First, Baz Luhrmann films don’t actually have
any success here. Secondly, I remember how my parents always reference the
original Top Gun as the movie they put on to test a sound system. They
aren’t Oscar voters, but I don’t think they are alone in this thought either. Maverick
both has great sound and has a legacy of great sound.
Best Original Score
1.
*Babylon
2.
*The
Fabelmans
3.
*All
Quiet on the Western Front
4.
*Everything
Everywhere All at Once
5.
*The
Banshees of Inisherin
Justin Hurwitz’s score
is the one thing universally praised about Babylon. Even people who
despise that movie get changed by it. It also helps that none of the other
nominees really stick out for me. All Quiet is a film I see people
attributing the score to the sound instead. Check it. Despite all the war films
that have won the Sound awards over the years, the last one to win for Score
was The Bridge on the River Kwai in 1957*. The Banshees
score is a little too subtle. The score for EEAAO is about the 50th
thing I’d think of to praise in the movie. It’s only winning in the case of a
truly dominant Oscar night sweep. Only the legendary John Williams for The
Fabelmans looks like a possible spoiler. He has a record 53 Oscar
nominations and 5 wins. Even if statistically it is true, it’s hard to argue
that he’s due another win. That really does just leave the Babylon
score. And let me repeat: that score rules.
*This is subject to how
you define a war movie but no matter how you define it, it’s been a while and
not that often.
Best Original Song
1.
*"Naatu
Naatu" (RRR)
2.
"Applause"
(Tell It Like a Woman)
3.
*"Hold
My Hand" (Top Gun: Maverick)
4.
*"Lift
Me Up" (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
5.
*"This
Is a Life" (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
I can’t figure out if
this RRR thing is for real or just an internet thing. For how crazy
people went for the movie, a lone Original Song nomination feels pretty paltry,
making me think the large-scale support isn’t really there. It’s hard to go
against the biggest hit or the biggest star when talking about this award. That
would suggest Lady Gaga on the Maverick nomination gives it an edge, but
she just won for “Shallow”, and “Hold My Hand” is no “Shallow”. Or maybe
Rihanna and company with the Wakanda Forever song. She does have that
Superbowl Halftime show heat. I’m choosing to believe the “Naatu Naatu” love is
real though. And it would be a fun win. As long as I’m letting my whims drive
me, how much fun would it be for Dianne Warren (“Applause”) to finally win a
competitive Oscar the same year they gave her an Honorary Oscar?
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1.
*Elvis
2.
*The
Whale
3.
*The
Batman
4.
*All
Quiet on the Western Front
5.
*Black
Panther: Wakanda Forever
Has it really come to
this? A debate over which makeup department did a better job making an actor
look fat? If that’s the case, I’ll go with Elvis’ ability to create the
many phases of Elvis with Austin Butler. I just think The Whale is too
off-putting. Batman’s eye shadow probably can’t push it to a win. I don’t see
them giving it to Ruth Carter again for a Black Panther movie. And
please don’t make me look up how long it has been since a war movie won this
award. It may have never happened.
Best Costume Design
1.
*Elvis
2.
*Everything
Everywhere All at Once
3.
*Babylon
4.
*Black
Panther: Wakanda Forever
5.
*Mrs.
Harris Goes to Paris
This one will break me.
I really want to believe Mrs. Harris stands a chance here. There are
plenty of oddball wins in this category in the past. They’re generally for much
louder or older films than Mrs. Harris though. Ruth E. Carter won for
the first Black Panther. It doesn’t feel like they are in a hurry to
award her again, and there isn’t the same push behind this Black Panther
movie. I’d say Babylon has enough flash to sneak some design wins like The
Great Gatsby did a decade ago, but it’s competing with another Baz Luhrmann
movie, which sort of negates that. Cruella won just last year. The first
Fantastic Beasts movie was a surprise winner here. Mad Max: Fury Road
won. Don’t tell me the insanity of everything Stephanie Hsu wears in EEAAO
can’t get it a win here. Something tells me it’s more likely to get rolled into
the Daniels’ direction as “part of a crazy vision” though. Anyway, Elvis
is such an easy pick. We remember what the real Elvis wore. The Elvis costumes
in this look like those. What a success!
Best Production Design
1.
*Elvis
2.
*Babylon
3.
*Avatar:
The Way of Water
4.
*The
Fabelmans
5.
*All
Quiet on the Western Front
I could argue that
Production Design is the award that is least welcoming to subtlety. You’ll
seldom go wrong by picking the movie that’s hardest to ignore. All Quiet
and The Fabelmans are the easiest cuts. That just isn’t the direction
this award goes. The first Avatar did win this award in 2009. However,
that year wasn’t as competitive and voters aren’t as ready to hand over all the
technical awards to Avatar this time. Most years, Babylon would
look like a lock here precisely because it’s the most Baz Luhrmann-y in its
excesses. Unfortunately, there’s an actual Baz Luhrmann film nominated too. The
Great Gatsby won this. Moulin Rouge! won this. Rome + Juliet was
nominated. Australia certainly would’ve been nominated had it not been
such a bomb. Elvis is gaining steam. Babylon remains quite
divisive. I may be rooting for Babylon, but Elvis feels like the
safer pick.
Best Cinematography
1.
*All
Quiet on the Western Front
2.
*Elvis
3.
*Tár
4.
Bardo,
False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
5.
*Empire
of Light
Well, nothing decided
to go black and white this year, so it’s a fair fight. Simply put, All Quiet
is the only nominee that most looks like a past winner. Bardo and Empire
of Light are films the Cinematography branch surely liked in the nomination
stage but the larger Academy membership are likely to ignore when it comes to
voting. Tár doesn’t show off enough. Past Lurhmann films haven’t won
this award, and I think it’s because voters decide the Production Design is
doing the heavy lifting. The cinematographer is merely capturing a colorful and
exciting world, not creating that with his/her shots. Meanwhile, grimy and/or
war-weathered worlds get the Cinematography prize regularly. 1917 won
(although the single-take gimmick helped). The Revenant won. Even There
Will Be Blood isn’t that far from the style of All Quiet. Look, I
don’t think there are any really great nominees here, but All Quiet
makes the most sense to me.
Best Film Editing
1.
*Top
Gun: Maverick
2.
*Everything
Everywhere All at Once
3.
*Elvis
4.
*Tár
5.
*The
Banshees of Inisherin
Don’t make the mistake
of thinking that just because the Best Picture winner is almost always
nominated for Film Editing, that there’s more correlation between winning both
awards. In fact, it’s safer to assume the Best Picture winner won’t win this.
It hasn’t happened since Argo won this in 2012. What is reliable is looking to
the Sound (formerly Sound Editing) winner. The Sound and Film Editing Awards
have matched the last 9 years. In general, they are the most correlated awards
at the Oscars. Given that Maverick feels safe in the Sound category, it
makes sense to pick it for Film Editing too. The spoilers would be EEAAO
as part of a big Oscar night sweep or Elvis, harking back to the Bohemian
Rhapsody win in 2018. There’s a chance that the long shots in Tár might
actually get people thinking about the editing in it more. I have no reason to
look to Banshees here.
Best Original Screenplay
1.
*Everything
Everywhere All at Once – Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
2.
*The
Banshees of Inisherin – Martin McDonagh
3.
*The
Fabelmans – Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner
4.
*Tár
– Todd Field
5.
*Triangle
of Sadness – Ruben Östlund
Triangle is the only movie I fully discount here. Too divisive. I
think the focus of Tar is on Blanchett’s performance to the detriment of
the screenplay, fair or not. It’s very hard for me to believe The Fabelmans
can win for the screenplay without a win for director. Banshees looks
like the front-runner, given the precursors. It has the BAFTA and Golden Globe
wins. It wasn’t eligible for the WGA award. It’s déjà vu. Three Billboards
had the same record going into Oscar night before losing the Oscar to the hip
writer-director with pop sensibilities. That year it was Jordan Peele with Get
Out. This year, it’s the Daniels. And, anecdotally, it’s hard to watch EEAAO
without thinking about how nuts it is that they packed it with so much and
still made sense.
Best Adapted Screenplay
1.
*Women
Talking – Sarah Polley
2.
*Top
Gun: Maverick –Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie
3.
*Glass
Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – Rian Johnson
4.
*All
Quiet on the Western Front – Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell
5.
Living
– Kazuo Ishiguro
None of the Best
Picture favorites are here, so I can’t use that to help. I’m going with Women
Talking because it did win the WGA award and…I kind of just want to see it
win. I’m not sold on All Quiet’s chances. It did win the BAFTA and
wasn’t eligible for the WGA. My thinking is this. Look at the Screenplay
winners. They are almost never the major technical award winners. 1917
lost. Dune lost. Dunkirk, Mad Max: Fury Road, and Gravity
weren’t even nominated. The general love for Maverick could push it
through. And who knows? Maybe the Glass Onion support is greater than I
think. Maybe it was #6 on all the ballots and just barely missed other
nominations.
Best Supporting Actor
1.
*Ke
Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
2.
*Brendan
Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
3.
*Barry
Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
4.
*Judd
Hirsch – The Fabelmans
5.
Brian
Tyree Henry – Causeway
Quan is winning this. EEAAO
is looking very formidable and he’s the nominee with the least obvious
competition. If anyone was beating him, it would be one of the Banshees
boys, but they have a vote split to contend with.
Best Supporting Actress
1.
*Jamie
Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
2.
*Kerry
Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
3.
*Angela
Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4.
*Stephanie
Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once
5.
*Hong
Chau – The Whale
Supporting Actress is
the kind of award that gets me in trouble filling out my ballot. I’ve never
believed this Angela Bassett hype. The MCU has a terrible track-record even
getting performances actors nominated. The only major precursor she’s won is
the Golden Globe which is the most meaningless. I didn’t find her that
undeniable in Wakanda Forever. But, I do recognize that I have a grudge
against the Black Panther movies for some reason. I refused to believe
the first movie would have the Oscar success that it did. I may be trying to
believe that Bassett isn’t the front-runner here too.
What’s a lot easier for
me to believe is that everyone loves Jamie Lee Curtis. She’s played the game as
well as anyone this year. She won the SAG award. She’s a great interview and
has seemingly accepted every invite to every event. While I think Hsu is the
obviously better performance in EEAAO, all season, she’s been getting
the “should just be happy to be nominated” treatment. It’s hard to see Banshees
losing every award, so BAFTA-winner Kerry Condon has a real chance here.
The last Martin McDonagh movie earned two acting Oscars. There’s a track
record. Hong Chau would not be a bad winner, but it feels a lot like when
Maggie Gyllenhaal and Jeff Bridges were nominated for Crazy Heart. Only
the star of the movie could actually win the Oscar.
Best Actor
1.
*Austin
Butler – Elvis
2.
*Brendan
Fraser – The Whale
3.
*Colin
Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
4.
Paul
Mescal – Aftersun
5.
Bill
Nighy – Living
Dammit, I just don’t
know. Nighy and Mescal are easy to count out. There’s an outside shot that
Farrell could win. His only precursor win has been the Comedy/Musical Golden
Globe award. Fraser has been the presumptive favorite basically since The
Whale premiered on the festival circuit. He just won the SAG, which it
really nice. But a lot of people really do hate The Whale. Butler,
meanwhile, has just never gone away. That’s been the case with Elvis all
season. I don’t even know if I can call it momentum. It's more like we just
keep getting clues that it’s been strong all along. Butler winning the BAFTA is
what really pushes him over the edge for me though. I know Elvis is popular
worldwide, but I would’ve thought he was too American for the BAFTAs. And
Farrell, Mescal, and Nighy were right there. I realize two of them are Irish,
but they feel pretty damn welcome at the BAFTAs. Butler winning against them
tells me there’s more popularity for that performance than I previously
thought.
Best Actress
1.
*Cate
Blanchett – Tár
2.
*Michelle
Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
3.
*Michelle
Williams – The Fabelmans
4.
*Andrea
Riseborough – To Leslie
5.
*Ana
de Armas – Blonde
You can give me a lot
of arguments for why it should go to someone other than Blanchett. She already
has two awards and won her 2nd less than a decade ago. The other
women all have more interesting narratives: especially Yeoh (career Oscar) and
Williams (5th nomination, no win yet). However, Blanchett is just
that good. All the precursors have gone to her. I haven’t heard any bubbling
decent or resentment about her winning. The only way I see it going to someone
else is if EEAAO is really that much of a steamroller that it takes Yeoh
with it.
Best Director
1.
*Daniel
Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
2.
*Steven
Spielberg – The Fabelmans
3.
*Martin
McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
4.
*Todd
Field – Tár
5.
*Ruben
Östlund – Triangle of Sadness
I’ll only entertain the
Daniels and Spielberg as possibilities to win this. The narrative just never
caught on with Spielberg. He’s a victim of his prodigious success. He has a ton
of Oscar nominations over the years. Because he’s a producer and
director, he does have 3 Oscars already. Somehow, The Fabelmans got a
reputation for not being populist and hasn’t been able to shake it. Meanwhile,
the Daniels have won all the precursors and EEAAO hasn’t lost momentum
over these many, many months.
Best Picture
1.
*Everything
Everywhere All at Once
2.
*The
Fabelmans
3.
*The
Banshees of Inisherin
4.
*Top
Gun: Maverick
5.
*All
Quiet on the Western Front
6.
*Elvis
7.
*Tár
8.
*Triangle
of Sadness
9.
*Women
Talking
10.
*Avatar:
The Way of Water
Look, I looooooove an
incredibly deep dive into Best Picture. I can break down all the precursor
awards and Oscar statistics. I can explain the intricacies of the weighted
ballot. However, I’m not going to do that this year. For two reasons.
Reason 1: The CODA win last year broke me. I’ve never seen a
movie come on so strong and late. It’s the first Best Picture winner in modern
times that voters largely discovered AFTER nomination morning, and that
threw everything off. It had a paltry nomination count for a Best Picture winner
and few precursor nominations. That generally indicates low support. But, then
it went on to win virtually all of the awards it was nominated for. So, I’m
still scrambling to figure out what the new normal is for Oscar
prognostication. I think that calendar matters more than the count of awards.
Reason 2: EEAAO is going to win. Movies just don’t dominate
the precursors like this then lose the Oscar. In the last 20 years, just three
movies have won the PGA, WGA, DAG, and SAG awards: Argo, Slumdog
Millionaire, No Country for Old Men. They all won Best Picture.
That’s because those groups represent a huge portion of the Academy voters. And
it isn’t like the other precursors (BAFTA, Golden Globes, etc.) have rallied
around a single other film. They’ve been split. I guess it’s theoretically
possible that a less weird movie like The Fabelmans or Maverick
could win. Personally, I’ve been surprised that EEAAO hasn’t scared away
more voters. At this point though, the results speak for themselves.
