Delayed Reaction: Son of Rambow

The Pitch: Two boys in England decide to make a sequel to First Blood.

There's a certain kind of movie that I call "Sundance movies" that really connect with me. I call them Sundance movies because that's what they normally are: movies that premiere at Sundance. They're normally coming of age stories. They often meander and go down a lot of side tangents that don't add to the story but contribute to the world of the movie. Many indie movies I watch play more like short stories than novels. These "Sundance movies" are almost like a collection of short stories. Me & Earl & The Dying Girl and The Way Way Back are great examples of this. Dope too. And The Kings of Summer. Not all of these are perfect, but they all have the same DNA.

So, it's no surprise that I really enjoyed Son of Rambow. Plus, it falls under another category of movie that I respond to: If a movie ends with characters watching a film that they spent the whole movie making, I'm going to respond favorably. It sold me on Bowfinger. It played well into Me & Earl & the Dying Girl. And it worked here.

This is a damn charming movie. Director Garth Jennings loves playing in this silly world he creates. Bill Milner and the increasingly ubiquitous Will Poulter are completely charming throughout. It took a little while for me to settle into this, but once I did, it was a real delight.

Another small beat I wanted to point out. Perhaps I misunderstood the intent of this, but I loved the twist toward the end, in the school bus with the French students. The whole movie presents Didier as a larger than life cool kid in England. Once he's back with only his French classmates, he's actually a reject. There's a lot of shifting dynamics like that among the characters that surprised me.

Verdict (?): Strongly Recommend

Delayed Reaction: Best of Enemies

The Pitch: A look into the televised debates between Gore Vidal and William F. Buckley in 1968.

This is one of those "perfect storm" documentaries that I'll catch sometimes. I recently watched the CNN series The Sixties and have been digging deep into election strategies for 2016. Then, I stumble on this documentary about political discourse in the 1960s. I knew nothing about any of it. I recognize Vidal in name only and kinda sorta recognize Buckley. So, this was all new to me although about a topic that interested me a lot. That's pretty ideal for a documentary.

I was impressed by the number of topics that this moved between. There's the competition among the news networks of the time, with ABC lagging behind NBC and CBS. It does a wonderful job of painting Vidal and Buckley as opposite sides of the same coin. Then there's how their debates during the Presidential conventions in 1968 changed the course of political discussion on TV.

Mostly, I was impressed by how the documentary didn't take sides. I'm not a fan of watching a documentary when I feel like I'm only being told half the story. It's why Making a Murderer didn't connect with me and why I stopped Blackfish midway through. It would've been easy to make a version of this that villainous Buckley in favor of Vidal after the infamous "Don't call me a crypto-nazi" line. That's not what this does though. It tries to give context to it all, which made it much more interesting.

This doesn't transcend the documentary format in the way that something like The Imposter does, but for anyone at all interested in the subject matter, it's entertaining.

Verdict (?): Weakly Recommend

Delayed Reaction: White Rabbit

The Pitch: Donnie Darko but less interesting.

Say what you will about Donnie Darko (it hasn't aged well), but it's memorable. The visuals get your attention, the dialogue is distinctive, and the cast continues to look better. White Rabbit really wants to be Donnie Darko. The main character (Nick Krause as Harlon) is kind of screwed up. He hears voices that make him question reality. There's a girl (Britt Robertson) who sets him off. Hell, he's even haunted by a rabbit. White Rabbit just doesn't do any of it all that effectively. I never got the sense that these voices from the comics he was hearing were more than just a personality quirk. Robertson's "betrayal" of Krause didn't seem so bad even in his warped perspective. And I never bought their friendship in the frist place. She was just sort of a manic pixie nightmare girl. I think most of it comes down to how removed Krause is the entire time. I think  director Tim McCann was trying to present Krause's character to the audience by following him when he really needed to get the audience inside his head...maybe? I don't know. All I can say is that I felt completely removed from the movie while I was watching it. So, the big moments (realizing Ryan Lee was dead, Krause shooting up his school) had no effect on me. It did kind of make me want to watch We Need To Talk About Kevin again, except that I have no desire to willingly depress myself that much.

Verdict (?): Strongly Don't Recommend

Delayed Reaction: The Oranges

The Pitch: Two best friend families are broken up after the husband of one family begins an affair with the daughter from the other family.

In a way, this movie has been on my radar since 2006, when Leighton Meester guest starred in a couple episodes of House M.D.. Because of that, when I heard about The Oranges back in 2011, the casting of Hugh Laurie opposite Meester always tickled me. Also, Hugh Laurie is never the lead in a movie.

While he's billed as the lead in The Oranges, it's definitely more of an ensemble, and an ensemble that I really like. Laurie, Meester, Alia Shawkat, Allison Janney, Oliver Platt, Adam Brody. My TV All Stars senses are tingling. Catherine Keener is the only movies-first actor in the cast. And, a young Aya Cash. What's not to like about this cast?

This movie does a lot of smart things. It puts Meester and Laurie on equal footing in their affair/relationship. The movie wastes no time with shenanigans to try to hide the affair. The script is committed to mixing and matching scenes with the cast, so there's a lot of flavor to the different relationships. I think that there's even value to be added by seeing this again.

But, it's really hampered by never deciding what it is. It's the classic "Not funny enough to be a comedy, not serious enough to be a drama". That isn't to say that a movie can't do both. In this case, it would've benefited greatly from picking a side and injected what it could of the other when possible. I went in expecting a straight-up comedy (perhaps a slightly more dour Crazy, Stupid Love), which this was not. I am leaving a little room to suggest that maybe it was subtler than I expected. Maybe I missed a lot. I doubt that, but, as I said, I think there's value in seeing this again.

Verdict (?): Weakly Don't Recommend

Movie Reaction: The Magnificent Seven

Formula: The Magnificent Seven + King Arthur

What is it about the call of the Wild West that attracts so many directors? Is it the mythology built around it or the fact that it's so specific to the United States? Maybe it's a simple as the memories filmmakers have of the heyday in the 50s and 60s. Whatever that reason, it seems like every couple years a director/studio takes a stab at a Wild West epic. There was Gore Verbinski's The Lone Ranger in 2013 or Jon Favreau's Cowboys and Aliens in 2011. Of course, who can forget Wild Wild West in 1999? Even modestly-budgeted Jonah Hex bombed in 2010. The Wild West isn't quite synonymous with failure, but there certainly doesn't appear to be great success with the large scale projects.

The most recent filmmaker to take on this challenge is Antoine Fuqua with his remake of The Magnificent Seven. In doing this, Fuqua sticks with what's familiar to him. He reunites Training Day costars Denzel Washington and Ethan Hawke. He's done stories similar to this one, most specifically King Arthur which was also about a motley collection of fighters trying to stand their ground against overwhelming forces. As a result, this is exactly the movie I expected from Fuqua, which isn't necessarily bad. It could've been much, much worse.

[Note: I haven't seen the original Magnificent Seven and it's unfair to place this again Seven Samurai, so don't be expecting a comparison]

The story is pretty basic. Peter Sarsgaard is a robber baron threatening to kill everyone in a small town if they don't leave. Haley Bennett is the widow of a man Sarsgaard kills. She hires Denzel Washington, a roaming lawman, who agrees to assemble a team of seven men to defend the small town.

The titular seven are well cast. Washington is the laconic hero: a role he has played more times than I can count, including his last film with Fuqua - The Equalizer. He gives the character depth just by taking the role. That's useful for a movie that needs to do a lot of character development in a finite time. Chris Pratt fits in pretty naturally. He reminded me a lot of what Brad Pitt is to George Clooney in Ocean's Eleven: clearly second in command and not taking it all that seriously. Ethan Hawke is a gunshy Cajun. Vincent D'Onofrio is a bear of a man. Byung-hun Lee is a Chinese man with an affinity for knives. Manuel Garcia-Rulfo is a fugitive Mexican. Martin Sensmeier is a Native American who knows "some English". They are archetypes and lean heavily on that. There's just not enough time to define them otherwise. Bennett also gets short-changed as a character. Thankfully, they don't force her into a love story, although if the movie was a half hour longer, it would certainly be there. Sarsgaard is a mustache-twirling non-character. He exists as plot device and little else.  Simply put, this is not a movie for rich characterization. If all you need is for the seven to crack some jokes with one another and kick ass when needed, this is perfect for you. If you expect more depth than that, sorry. That's not the movie that anyone was making. There's actually an attempt to build up Washington and Sarsgaard's relationship/history toward the very end that's so comically misplaced that it would've been better to drop it entirely.

I expected the character issues going in. That's almost in the DNA of the movie. What bothered me is that I was bored by the climactic showdown. It was impersonal and often hard to track. The geography of the fight and the town isn't laid out well enough to track what's happening. Beyond digging some bunkers and shooting from the tops of buildings, it was hard to pick up on anything strategic that was being done. They hint at setting up a series of road blocks for the enemy horses, but the riders on those horses are killed so quickly regardless that I don't see the point of it. All seven gunslingers have perfect vision and aim. None of the villains have a personality. Sarsgaard's "strategy" makes no sense either. The shootout is exciting but empty of emotion or personal stakes. I expected more, since that sequence is the whole reason the movie exists.

I don't do grade ratings of movies in these Reactions. I'm not against them. I think they can be informative. I just didn't do it when I started and it stuck. If I did ratings though, The Magnificent Seven would be a solid B-. Not all B-'s are built equally though. Sometimes, it's a reflection of doing some really good things with some really bad things that cancel each other out. Other times, it's the result of doing all things competently without making any huge missteps or taking any risks. This film is the latter case. Most of the character development is done in the casting. Thankfully, a good cast was assembled. Antoine Fuqua knows what he's doing as a director but isn't inspired to move out of his comfort zone anywhere. It's pretty generic. This could just as easily be called Young Guns: The Next Generation or American Outlaws 2. That's either going to bother you or it won't. I liked it well enough, although I can't imagine ever seeing it again.

Verdict (?): Weakly Don't Recommend

Delayed Reaction: Damsels in Distress

The Pitch: The description I came up with to describe it to a friend was "It's like if Amy Heckerling directed a Wes Anderson movie" and I'm sticking to that description.

I'm not sure I know what this movie is and I don't particularly care. Apparently, Whit Stillman is a know commodity from the 90's indie movie circuit. This is my introduction to his films though, and I have to say that I'm anxious to see more. This is an odd movie that takes the oddness head on. It's played completely earnestly, which is the only way it can work. Any comparison to Clueless or Mean Girls is fair (and probably invited), so I was almost certain to enjoy it. And I did. Greta Gerwig is fantastic (a sentence that get more redundant each role she takes). She, in particular, and the rest of the cast deliver lines that are too preposterous to work but succeed through unflinching commitment to the character and the world. It was fun seeing other actors like Annaleigh Tipton and Adam Brody in addition to brief appearances by people like Aubrey Plaza, Zach Woods, and Alia Shawkat.

This is a damn delightful movie and I was too sick to fully appreciate it the first time I saw it. I need to see it again.

Verdict (?): Strongly Recommend

Delayed Reaction: The Seven Year Itch

The Pitch: Just like the Broadway play, except entirely defanged.

It's funny. While I was watching this movie, I kept thinking about how much films were able to play like stage productions back in the 1950s. It was only afterwards that I realized that The Seven Year Itch began as a play. Then everything started to make sense. I went into the movie only knowing one thing, Marilyn Monroe's skirt being blown up. I guess, if nothing else, having context for that iconic scene made the whole movie worth it. It's pretty apparent how much the movie was neutered though. It's all so chaste which is in direct conflict with every point the movie is trying to make. It's enjoyable enough though. Tom Ewell drives it well and Marilyn Monroe fulfills her exact purpose. And, it achieves the main goal of any play adapted into a movie: Now I want to see the play.

Verdict (?): Weakly Don't Recommend

Delayed Reaction: Mean Creek

The Pitch: Stand By Me without the parts that make you feel any better.

I really think that writer-director Jacob Aaron Estes watched Stand By Me and decided that it wasn't depressing enough.

I caught part of this movie about a decade ago. I'm not even sure how (I don't remember having any movie channels at the time. Was it on IFC? Did I even have that channel?). I saw a few minutes of it because I recognized the kid from Genius (Trevor Morgan), the girl from Lizzie McGuire (Carly Schroeder), the boy from The Amanda Show (Josh Peck), and a Culkin brother (Rory Culkin). Then I turned it off when it got dark and Peck dies. It's been a staple of my Netflix queue for years now and I finally decided to revisit it and see if some context makes it any less depressing.

It doesn't. This is a dreary movie and knowing his fate makes it even harder to watch for Josh Peck's character. Often, the movie  veers dangerously close to self-parody. The performances are pretty good for a bunch of young actors - Oh, I just realized that Scott Mechlowicz is the guy from Eurotrip! - and the low tech camera work fits the tone. I'd like to say that I didn't care for the movie but the fact that part of it has stuck with me for so many years means that I'm probably not done with it.

Verdict (?): Weakly Don't Recommend

Delayed Reaction: CBGB

The Pitch: How did that place because a club we've heard of?

CBGB is the epitome of an "if these walls could talk" location. It's the original home of punk and where so, so many artists from that era got their start. A movie covering all that history is a difficult thing to pull off. This film is the equivalent of reading the opening paragraph in the CBGB Wikipedia article, then skimming through the rest of it. I'm fine with that. A lot of actors get to show up and do impressions of 80s musicians. Malin Akerman makes a good Debbie Harry. It's fun to see Rupert Grint as one of The Dead Boys and Alan Rickman as the Hilly Kristal, always looking like he's battling a headache from a hangover. It's like an alternate Harry Potter timeline where Snape is fired for being a drunk and Ron drops out of school after a spell fucks up his brain. It's an easy watch. The comic book style keeps it lively and makes it easy to keep track of everyone. I just don't know what the point of making this was. There isn't really a story, but it's also not relaxed enough to be some kind of mood piece.

Verdict (?): Weakly Don't Recommend

2017 Emmy Predictions

It's time for another round of way too early Emmy Predictions. It's the same idea as the last few years. I'm going to make 10 predictions a year ahead of the next Emmys, some bold, some obvious. After next's year's Emmys, I'll see how I did. 2016 was my best year yet, so I decided to get a little bit harder this year.

Past editions:
2016 Predictions | Results
2015 Predictions | Results
2014 Predictions | Results
2013 Predictions | Results
2012 Predictions | Results

Julia Louis-Dreyfus fails to win a 6th consecutive Emmy for Veep
No one has ever won five consecutive times. Only two other people have even won 5 for the same role total. She's one win away from Cloris Leachman's record for most total wins by a performer (8), which Leachman got on the strength of Guest Actress wins. I hope I'm wrong about Louis-Dreyfus losing, but it's hard to see voters not getting tired of her, even if she is the best in the field.

Full Frontal with Samantha Bee gets a Variety Talk Series nomination.
I'm not sure how it failed to be nominated in 2016. Voters will remedy that in 2017. I wouldn't be surprised to see Colbert break in as well in a Daily Show alumni takeover.

Kiefer Sutherland joins the Lead Actor field
Designated Survivor looks like a hit. Sutherland has a history of Emmy love. The broadcast networks (excluding PBS) haven't had a Lead Actor - Drama nominee since Kyle Chandler won in 2011 - and even that was technically shared with the 101 Network. The field wasn't very strong or fresh in 2016. Unless the show bombs (tee-hee), Sutherland should easily make the cut.

Fargo win Outstanding Limited Series on the strength of Ewan McGreggor's Lead Actor win
This, of course assumes that Fargo will be eligible. Fargo was shut out this year thanks to the unstoppable The People v. O.J. Simpson freight train. There's no obvious competitor next year, making Fargo the early favorite. Ewan McGreggor will star in Season 3, playing dual roles. It's unlikely that he'll be snubbed the way that Patrick Wilson was for season2.

Reality Competition will have a first time winner
This category is old. The Amazing Race has 14 nominations. Project Runway has 12. Dancing with the Stars, 11. Top Chef, 10. The Voice, 5. In 2016, American Ninja Warrior was the first new nominee in the category since The Voice in 2012. Oh, and since the category was created in 2003, only The Amazing Race, Top Chef, and The Voice have ever won. It's time for a change. Maybe it'll be American Ninja Warrior pulling off a win now that it's gotten over the hurdle of being nominated. My bet is on RuPaul's Drag Race storming the field. RuPaul finally broke through in the Reality Host field then won it. I predict the same will happen in Reality Competition.

Hulu is still ignored
Hulu hasn't had the luck that Amazon and Netflix have with the Emmys. The Path was ignored, as was 11.22.63. Casual looked like too many other Californian-set shows about people having mid-life crises to really stand out. I don't know what they have coming up, but it's unlikely it'll be enough to attend next year's Emmys.

Netflix loses ground in the major nomination count (Drama, Comedy, Limited, Movie)
Netflix had 16 nominees in the main ceremony Sunday night. In 2015, they had 13. 11 in 2014. 5 in 2013. In other words, they've been getting better every year. 2017 will the the first time they take a step back. I'm capping them at 12 nominations. They will get no more than that and even that is being generous.

Keri Russell or Matthew Rhys wins for Lead on The Americans
They got their nominations this year. The Americans is gaining favor and there's no giants currently in the lead actor or actress fields. This is all good news for The Americans stars. In recent years, Emmy voting has followed more of a trend of "we finally discovered it" than winning immediately. Veep, Game of Thrones, and Breaking Bad all won for the first time in later seasons. Then again, all of those shows had wins for acting in their first seasons. There isn't a great comparison for the path The Americans has taken. Perhaps looking to Tatiana Maslany winning this year supports my prediction for 2017. Regardless, one of them has to be good enough to get a win. I'm thinking of Rhys in particular since his potential field isn't very strong.

Kate McKinnon isn't the only SNL cast member nominated.
This is a big leap. The general consensus is that McKinnon is keeping SNL relevant these days. I disagree. While McKinnon is spectacular, there's plenty of other great talent on that show. Leslie Jones may not be the best performer, but she's high profile enough to get votes. Aidy Bryant and Cecily Strong keep finding new ways to take over the show. Beck Bennett is likely to benefit from Taran Killam's departure. There's a lot of opportunities for another nomination.

Only 1 of the 8 Drama and Comedy Acting winners will repeat
To be clear, I mean back-to-back winners. Despite how entrenched Emmy voters can be, this isn't all that far fetched when you think about it. Julia Louis-Dreyfus will be fighting history for a sixth win. Mr. Robot looks like a show that will burn out quickly, taking Rami Malek down with it. Tatiana Maslany, Ben Mendelsohn, and Louis Anderson were fluke wins (although deserved). Kate McKinnon has a lot of competition. Maggie Smith's show ended. Even Jeffrey Tambor isn't a lock for a third win. It's unlikely that no one repeats (I'm not sure that has ever happened), but in betting terms, an over/under of 1.5 is a pretty balanced wager for 2017.

Ok, maybe these aren't that bold. They sound good right now. Then again, last year, I had no idea that Limited Series would become the strongest series category. I hadn't even heard of Master of None or Baskets. Blackish hadn't made "the leap" yet. And The Americans was still an Emmy outsider. A lot can change in a year.

Movie Reaction: Blair Witch

Formula: The Blair Witch Project + $5 million

There will never be another The Blair Witch Project. That was a sensation from an age before social media. The found footage style was uncommon enough that people legitimately wondered if the movie was real. I remember being 12 at the time and being confused about its authenticity. The scares in that movie are simple and effective. The "I'm so scared" moment is iconic and has been repeated about as much as anything in the last 17 years. Making a sequel to such a singular movie/pop-culture phenomenon was always going to be an uphill battle. Given all that, Blair Witch is a relative success.

The idea for the sequel is essentially the same as the original. Some students go to the Black Hills forest to investigate the Blair Witch. In this world, The Blair Witch Project was real. There was a search for those students and nothing was ever found. James (James Allen McCune) is the brother of Heather from the original film. He finds a YouTube video that gives him reason to believe that his sister is still alive. Conveniently, he has a friend, Callie (Callie Hernandez), who is in a documentary class and, apparently, rich enough to have all the best camera equipment. James, Callie, and their friends Peter (Brandon Scott) and Ashley (Corbin Reid) decided to go to the Black Hills forest to see if they can find her. The meet a couple creepy locals along the way (Wes Robinson and Valorie Curry). From there, it is relatively the same movie as the original except it looks a lot better.

The writer and director have worked together before on You're Next, V/H/S, and V/H/S 2, which is about the best credentials I could ask for in a horror movie. In fact, the writer even wrote the segment in V/H/S that was essentially a mini-Blair Witch. They were wise to stick with the found footage style, even if the amount of coverage filmed strains believability. Blair Witch is shot well. There's plenty of good scares in it and well paced escalation. The only draw back is similar to the Paranormal Activity movies: After the first one, people get used to the tricks and the beats. There's isn't much to differentiate it.

The cast is fine. James Allen McCune, who is apparently not Jake Lacy or even related to him, has a frustrating character. Brandon Scott, who is similarly not related to Kevin Carroll, gives the film so much needed comedic beats. The women didn't remind me of any other actresses and weren't otherwise memorable. They're all red shirts though, so it doesn't matter much.

There's some internal world building that doesn't quite follow. I used my One Big Leap accepting that this is a world in which the Blair Witch can be a real, malevolent force. Given that, I don't buy into the current state the Black Hills forest. According to the world of the film, it was a big deal when the students initially went missing in 1999. The four main characters do run into a couple locals who know of the Blair Witch story, but where's the signs that the internet has discovered this story? This all starts with a YouTube clip that James finds, but that's stopping short. Shouldn't there be more information that internet sleuths have put together or more landmarks around the forest that are known? It's that kind of detail that could've really enriched the film. There's also questions of simple logic. Given the potential danger of this, you'd think that when someone badly injurs their foot, the group would turn back and they don't. People split up way too much too. They don't appear to have warned anyone of where they are going either. It's a collection is little things that bother me.

I enjoyed Blair Witch. It's nothing special, but it has some effective scares, which is all I need sometimes. At the end of the day, all it's trying to do is be better that Blair Witch 2: The Book of Secrets, which it is, so, yay. The Blair Witch Project finally has a proper sequel.

Verdict (?): Weakly Recommend

Movie Reaction: Snowden

Formula: Citizenfour + JFK

I have to say, this was far more restrained than I expected from the man who gave us JFK, W., and Born on the Fourth of July. I'll even go as far as saying that Oliver Stone's Snowden is pretty tame. From the conspiracy-tinged setup to Joseph Gordon Levitt's committed vocal performance, "restrained" and "tame" were not words I was prepared to use. And yet, here we are.

If you are somehow not familiar, Snowden is the story of Edward Snowden, a CIA/NSA contractor who gained worldwide notoriety in 2013 for exposing the US government's surveillance over - well - everyone and everything it wanted. The spine of the film is the few days in 2013 when Edward Snowden (Joseph Gordon Levitt) is with a few journalists and a documentary filmmaker as they try to figure out the best way to publish/leak the information he has illegally acquired about the US government's surveillance. This is cut heavily with flashbacks, which show how he went from an aspiring Special Forces officer to CIA analyst to CIA and NSA contractor, with access to top secret government information. It's a slow burn story that only appears to sensationalize events in ways that make it easier for the audience to understand some very complex computer talk.

Joseph Gordon-Levitt (JGL, from here on) does good work. I've been pretty bothered by his choice of vocal performance in the trailers - It's a bit of an over-correction to sound like the real Ed Snowden - but in the film, I quickly adapted to it and it stopped bothering me. He does a great job of showing Ed's growing uneasy with the things he's learning about the government. It's less about big moments as it is dozens of smalls ones, so when he hits his break point, it feels right and understated. Shailene Woodley plays his girlfriend, Lindsay Mills, who is with him basically the whole time without knowing exactly what he does. It's a distanced performance. The focus is never on her and Edward isn't a chatty character. That means that there's a lot of Woodley talking at JGL, begging for him to open up. It's a thankless part that she does what she can with. Nic Cage has a small role, playing a stock, mentor character, while Rhys Ifans is the "company man" for the CIA. Melissa Leo, Zachary Quinto, and Tom Wilkinson convincingly play the team who releases Snowden's story via The Guardian, then a documentary. It's really JGL that makes it work though.

As I mentioned, there's times when the descriptions of things feel like massive oversimplifications, and there's a few moments that are clearly there for dramatic effect. I'm trying to stay as agnostic as I can about what Edward Snowden did because it's somewhat beside the point for a dramatized film. I'm decidedly pro-Snowden though. I could see how someone who doesn't support what he did could hate the film. It's not really possible to separate the man from the film. In fact, doing so is missing the point.

As a character study, Snowden is a success. JGL carries it all ably and resists going bigger than he has to. The script tries to not talk down to the audience, with variable success. By staying bound to the truth (or at least, the plausible), the narrative of Snowden is never able to settle into a comfortable rhythm. The plot is more of a check-list of events. The film never feels like it's telling us something new, which ends up being it's biggest drawback. This is JGL's second movie recently that is outdone by the documentary that came before it (Citizenfour in this case and previously Man on Wire outdid The Walk). In The Walk's case, it differed in that it had the fantastically shot sequence of the titular walk. There's no such angle to sell Snowden on. It's essentially Citizenfour with actors. It's still good, just not special.

Verdict (?): Weakly Recommend

Emmy Predictions 2016 Results and Post Mortem

The Emmys are over, so now it's time to look back. I'm going to break this into two parts: My 2015 predictions for 2016 and my thoughts on this year's winners.

Part 1: 2016 [Blind] Predictions:

Perhaps my favorite tradition on this blog is when I make predictions for the next Emmys right after the current ones. In other words, on September 23, 2015, I made the following predictions about the 2016 Emmys. Let's see how I did.

Previous Editions:
2012 Predictions
2013 Predictions
2014 Predictions
2015 Predictions

Prediction: Two of these three nominations happen: Matthew Rhys (Lead Actor), Keri Russell (Lead Actress), The Americans (Drama Series).
Reasoning: The Americans was gaining steam in 2015 and the Drama field lost a lot of perennials.
Reality: Three of three happened. If anything, I wasn't optimistic enough. (+1)

Prediction: Lady Gaga gets a Emmy Nomination for acting.
Reasoning: American Horror Story spent years taking advantage of the weak Limited Series field and Gaga looked too flashy to deny.
Reality: FX provided the Emmys with Fargo and American Crime Story. Afterwards, there was no room left for Gaga. I'm still surprised about this one. (+0)

Prediction: Veep gets a second term.
Reasoning: The comedy field lost a lot of the strong competitors and none of the upcoming series looked strong enough to unseat Veep. Also, I assumed that the loss of Armando Ianucci wouldn't be felt too strongly.
Reality: Veep had arguably its strongest season. While Master of None put up a good fight and Blackish made "the leap" in season 2, Veep was too good to deny. (+1)

Prediction: HBO has more than half the TV Movie nominees.
Reasoning: The TV Movie field is the weakest out there. As long as HBO had three films it was proud of, it's likely it could get them all nominated.
Reality: I'm not sure if HBO even had three TV movies. As a result, it "only" got two nominations (Confirmation, All the Way). (+0)

Prediction: There will be no repeat winners for any of the four main Drama acting categories.
Reasoning: It's pretty common for Emmy voters to change their mind all around. The same thing happened in 2011 and 2008. Only Jon Hamm was guaranteed to not be back, but none of the other winners (Viola Davis, Peter Dinklage, Uzo Aduba) were dynasties.
Reality: Nailed it. All sorts of crazy wins happened this year. Tatiania Maslany was the most shocking. (+1)

Prediction: A Marvel or DC Series gets a stunt coordination nomination
Reasoning: Between Agents of SHIELD, Agent Carter, Arrow, The Flash, Supergirl, Daredevil, Gotham, and Jessica Jones it was getting to the point that it was more improbably that none of them were nominated.
Reality: Gotham (shocking) and Daredevil (not shocking) broke through. (+1)

Prediction: Last Week Tonight dominates the Variety categories.
Reasoning: David Letterman, Jon Stewart, and The Colbert Report were all gone, leaving a clear field for Last Week Tonight.
Reality: It won for Variety Talk series and Writing. A directing win was always a long shot, so I'm not counting that against me. (+1)

Prediction: Silicon Valley gets an acting nomination.
Reasoning: Season 2 of Silicon Valley proved it had staying power. The only new nominations available were for acting. Supposing it didn't fall out of voters' favor, it seemed likely.
Reality: Thomas Middleditch broke through. That was totally deserved. (+1)

Prediction: In with Emmy Rossum. Out with Tatiana Maslany.
Reasoning:Maslany's nomination was so delightfully unexpected that I didn't dare assume she'd get a second (Boy was I wrong). Meanwhile, with Amy Poehler, Edie Falco, and Lisa Kudrow all gone, there was no reason to think that Emmy Rossum couldn't finally make it in.
Reality: Not only did Maslany stay nominated. She won! As for Rossum, I'm going to have to get let go of that dream. (+0)

Prediction: The Amazing Race falls out of the Reality Competition field.
Reasoning: The Reality Competition field is super old and The Amazing Race is the oldest of them all.
Reality: There was room for American Ninja Warrior to break into the field. The Amazing Race was still there though. It can't be killed. (+0)

Bonus Prediction: I will have see a combined five nominees from Limited Series or TV Movie.
Reasoning: I knew I'd watch Fargo. I assumed Show Me a Hero, True Detective, and American Horror Story were locks for two nominations, given how weak the Limited Series field normally is. And, it wouldn't be that hard to see an HBO movie or two.
Reality: I saw six of the ten nominees. Other than Fargo, they weren't the ones I expected. Instead, it took American Crime Story, American Crime, Roots, Sherlock, and All the Way. (+1)

With the bonus, I got 7/11 predictions, which, I believe, is the best I've done yet. And I don't think I went either on myself either. Yay, me!

Part 2: Thoughts on the 2016 Emmy Results

As for this year's ceremony, I'll break this down into my standard Good, Bad, and Meh.

The Good 

Veep
I wouldn't've minded Veep sweeping the field. As is, I'm pleased with the wins it did get. It's the best comedy series on TV, so no complaints there. Julia Louise-Dreyfus' fifth consecutive win is, in a word, absurd. It's also, in another word, deserved. Given the otherwise weak field, her win was the right call.

Game of Thrones
The Americans would've been nice, sure. Game of Thrones is a totally deserving winner though. I could be bummed by the lack of wins in the Support Actor and Actress fields. The writing and directing wins made up for it.


Tatiana Maslany
I didn't think it would happen. I didn't even consider it. I'm so glad to see her win, not only since she and Keri Russell were the clear top two, but because I like whenever an upstart network (BBC America) can get a win.

The Bad

Dame Maggie Smith
Did Downton Abbey really need a farewell win? Frankly, I just don't understand how Emilia Clarke and Lena Heady could both lose. Vote splitting, perhaps? Do we have any evidence that that's a real thing that happens?

Ben Mendelsohn
I would've been fine with a season 1 win. This was just weird though. Jonathan Banks is never going to win.

The Meh

Louis Anderson
His supporting actor win is fitting with the oddness of the supporting categories historically. From everything I hear, it's a deserved win. It would've been nice for Matt Walsh or Andre Braugher to sneak in a win though.


American Crime Story over Fargo
I loved American Crime Story. It's one of my favorite things from the last year. I'm just disappointed that its wins came at the expense of Fargo, which I like even more than The People v. OJ Simpson.

Sherlock: The Abominable Bride
Look, it's not like I felt that strongly about any of the other nominees. This sure felt unearned though.

Emmy Picks: Final Review

I've been going through it all week. Now it's time to put them all together, right before realizing how wrong I was.

Emmy Picks: Series
Emmy Picks - Lead Roles
Emmy Picks - Supporting Roles
Emmy Picks - Directing
Emmy Picks - Writing

Outstanding Comedy Series
Will Win: Veep
Could Win: Transparent
Should Win: Veep

Outstanding Drama Series
Will Win: Game of Thrones
Could Win: Mr. Robot
Should Win: The Americans

Outstanding Limited Series
Will Win: The People v. O.J. Simpson
Could Win: Fargo
Should Win: Fargo

Outstanding TV Movie
Will Win: All the Way
Could Win: Confirmation
Should Win: All the Way

Outstanding Variety Talk Series
Will Win: Last Week Tonight
Could Win: The Tonight Show
Should Win: Last Week Tonight

Outstanding Variety Sketch Series
Will Win: Inside Amy Schumer
Could Win: Key & Peele
Should Win: Key & Peele

Outstanding Reality Competition Series
Will Win: The Voice
Could Win: The Amazing Race
Should Win: American Ninja Warrior

Outstanding Lead Actor – Comedy Series
Will Win: Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent)
Could Win: Aziz Ansari (Master of None)
Should Win: Aziz Ansari (Master of None)

Outstanding Lead Actress – Comedy Series
Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)
Could Win: Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie)
Should Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)

Outstanding Lead Actor – Drama Series
Will Win: Rami Malek (Mr. Robot)
Could Win: Matthew Rhys (The Americans)
Should Win: Matthew Rhys (The Americans)

Outstanding Lead Actress – Drama Series
Will Win: Viola Davis (How to Get Away With Murder)
Could Win: Keri Russell (The Americans)
Should Win: Keri Russell (The Americans)

Outstanding Lead Actor – Limited Series or TV Movie
Will Win: Courtney B. Vance (The People v. O.J. Simpson)
Could Win: Bryan Cranston (All the Way)
Should Win: Courtney B. Vance (The People v. O.J. Simpson)

Outstanding Lead Actress – Limited Series or TV Movie
Will Win: Sarah Paulson (The People v. O.J. Simpson)
Could Win: Kirsten Dunst (Fargo)
Should Win: Sarah Paulson (The People v. O.J. Simpson)

Outstanding Supporting Actor – Comedy
Will Win: Tony Hale (Veep)
Could Win: Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
Should Win: Matt Walsh (Veep)

Outstanding Supporting Actress – Comedy
Will Win: Allison Janney (Mom)
Could Win: Anna Chlumsky (Veep)
Should Win: Anna Chlumsky (Veep)

Outstanding Supporting Actor – Drama
Will Win: Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
Could Win: Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul)
Should Win: Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul)

Outstanding Supporting Actress – Drama
Will Win: Lena Headey (Game of Thrones)
Could Win: Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones)
Should Win: Constance Zimmer (UnREAL)

Outstanding Supporting Actor – Limited Series or Movie
Will Win: Sterling K. Brown (The People v. O.J. Simpson)
Could Win: Hugh Laurie (The Night Manager)
Should Win: Bokeem Woodbine (Fargo)

Outstanding Supporting Actress – Limited Series or Movie
Will Win: Regina King (American Crime)
Could Win: Jean Smart (Fargo)
Should Win: Regina King (American Crime)

Outstanding Directing – Comedy Series
Will Win: Veep - "Kissing Your Sister"
Could Win: Master of None - "Parents"
Should Win: Veep - "Kissing Your Sister"

Outstanding Directing – Drama Series
Will Win: Game of Thrones - "Battle of the Bastards"
Could Win: Game of Thrones - "The Door"
Should Win: Game of Thrones - "The Door"

Outstanding Directing – Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special
Will Win: The People v. O.J. Simpson - "From the Ashes of Tragedy"
Could Win: The People v. O.J. Simpson - "The Race Card"
Should Win: Fargo - "Before the Law"

Outstanding Directing – Variety Special
Will Win: Grease: Live
Could Win: Lemonade
Should Win: Grease: Live

Outstanding Writing – Comedy Series
Will Win: Veep  - "Mother"
Could Win: Master of None - "Parents"
Should Win: Veep  - "Mother"

Outstanding Writing – Drama Series
Will Win: Game of Thrones - "Battle of the Bastards"
Could Win: Mr. Robot - "eps1.0_hellofriend.mov"
Should Win: The Americans - "Persona Non Grata"

Outstanding Writing – Limited Series, Movie, Special
Will Win: The People v. O.J. Simpson - "From the Ashes of Tragedy"
Could Win: The People v. O.J. Simpson - "Marcia, Marcia, Marcia"
Should Win: The People v. O.J. Simpson - "Marcia, Marcia, Marcia"

Outstanding Writing – Variety Special
Will Win: Amy Schumer: Live at the Apollo
Could Win: Tig Notaro: Boyish Girl Interrupted
Should Win: John Mulaney: The Comeback Kid

Emmy Picks: Series

The Emmys are coming up. If you haven't picked up on how this is done (2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011), it's pretty simple. Over the next few days, I'll be going through all the categories at the Emmys and making my predictions. I've order the nominees from most to least likely to win. I've also included who I believe is the biggest snub in the field and labeled what I will be rooting for on Emmy night.
Finally, the series awards.

Creative Arts Emmys
Emmy B-Team
Emmy Picks - Writing
Emmy Picks - Directing
Emmy Picks - Supporting Roles
Emmy Picks - Lead Roles

Outstanding Comedy Series

[My Favorite] Veep (HBO) You know me. I'm going to go to the numbers if I can. Veep is a five time nominee. It's the 2015 winner for comedy series. It has the most nominations of any comedy. It gained in nominations (always a good sign). Anecdotally, it had arguably its best season ever this year. I can't find a good historical comparison. Friends won its first time in its 8th season, but that was more of a career achievement win. Everybody Loves Raymond took 7 seasons to finally win. Both lost the next year. The Emmys are coming off a series of dynasties right now (30 Rock 2007-09, Modern Family 2010-2014). Veep looks like the new normal though these days. More shows are taking a while for people to figure them out. That's how Game of Thrones took so long to win or why The Americans wasn't nominated for drama series until season 4. The Big Bang Theory's first nomination wasn't until season 4. This is all a bunch of filler though. Veep is very likely to win. Not a lock, but close.

Transparent (Amazon) The nomination count fell, but it stayed even with the "major" nominations (series, directing, acting, writing). Similar to something like Girls, Transparent is a show that is likely to burn bright and fast with the Emmy voters. A season 1 win (especially in 2015's circumstances) was pretty vital to believing it could win in season 2.

Master of None (Netflix) At the end of the day, the most likely show to unseat a reigning champ is a new one. I don't think Master of None has the broad support needed (pretty much every nomination ties back to "Parents" and it couldn't pull a guest acting nod despite a lot of great guest performances). Also, I can't help thinking about Louie. This type of show has no history of winning. You need an ensemble.

Silicon Valley (HBO) Silicon Valley strikes me as the Six Feet Under to Veep's The Sopranos. It's going to get a ton of nominations but will be victim of bad timing.

blackish (ABC) It's nice to see blackish make the cut. ABC comedy has been doing so much right the last few years that it would be a shame if only Modern Family was recognized.

Modern Family (ABC) The Emmy window has shut. Five (4 too many) will have to be enough.

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix) There's no unique argument for it to win. It's not the best at anything which makes it hard to stand out.

Biggest Snub: Review (Comedy Central) This faux reality series is unlike any other show on TV. It managed to continue the story of Forrest MacNeil, Life Reviewer, in a way that felt natural and offered no shortage of great laughs to mix in with the awful things he does for answers. It's a short series that I recommend to anyone.

Outstanding Drama Series

Game of Thrones (HBO) It won last year. This season got even better. It doesn't look like there's any sleeping giants lying in wait. I don't see how Game of Thrones can lose. I just don't.

Mr. Robot (USA) The only true newcomer in the field. There's definitely a lot of love from the Emmy voters. All you really need is a good lead actor (check) and a good pilot (check) to do some damage. Also, for anyone who views the Emmys as political, this is your frontrunner.

[My Favorite] The Americans (FX) It took four years to even get nominated. An established show going from ignored to winning with its first nomination is almost unheard of. The second season of The Practice did it, but that's because the first season was six episodes that aired in the spring. The Rockford Files did it back in 1978, winning in its 4th season on its first Drama Series nomination. That's hardly a comparable TV landscape.

Better Call Saul (AMC) It lost to Game of Thrones last year. To win this year, it had to make a lot more noise. It didn't.

Downton Abbey (PBS) It's had its chance in 2012 with a weakened Mad Mad and a world of buzz. It couldn't win then. A farewell nomination will have to be enough.

House of Cards (Netflix) I have to give the Netflix PR team some credit for continuing to convince people that this is a prestige drama.

Homeland (SHO) I'll say this much. Law & Order won in 1997 with nothing more than a Lead Actor nomination. Homeland has a Lead Actress and Directing nomination making it less up an upset pick than that.

Biggest Snub: The Leftovers (HBO) You know the drill by now. It's the best show on TV. It followed up a deeply divisive first season (that I loved) with a second season that was better received all-around. It's a tough show and Emmy voters don't respond well to tough things. I would've loved to at least see a nomination, but it's in elite company with the rest of the snubs like Rectify, Review, and Show Me a Hero.

Outstanding Limited Series

The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX) It will win. Biggest lock of the night. Bet money on it. You'll win.

[My Favorite] Fargo (FX) Season 1 won back in 2014. Most years, this would be a lock to win. American Crime Story look unbeatable though.

Roots (History) After those first two, the odds for the last three nominees are about the same (<1%). Roots is the odd choice of the three, with the fewest nominations, but that could work in its favor. People wanting to award it in some way only have here to vote for it.

The Night Manager (AMC) It has a lot of nominations, but it seems to be driven entirely by the star appeal which ACS and Fargo have it beat with.

American Crime (ABC) As good as I've heard the season was, it happened so quietly.

Biggest Snub: Show Me a Hero (HBO) Had it aired six months later, it would've been nominated. But really, how does Oscar Isaac not even get nominated?

Outstanding TV Movie

[My Favorite] All the Way (HBO) Excluding the years when this was a joint category with Mini-Series (2011-13), HBO has won this every year since 2004. Also, 18 of the last 20 times. So, this is immediately a two-horse race. All the Way got more nomination love elsewhere and is about a bigger topic. Oh, and they sure love Jay Roach's TV movies (Game Change won in 2012, Recount won in 2008).

Confirmation (HBO) If it isn't All the Way, it almost has to be Confirmation. That's just math.

Sherlock: The Abominable Bride (PBS) The only potential spoiler is Sherlock. The last season got a lot of surprising wins in 2014 and gave The Normal Heart a good scare. The Abominable Bride hasn't been as strongly embraced in the nominations, so I don't expect it to win.

Luther (BBC America) I'm done trying to figure this show out.

A Very Murray Christmas (Netflix) Thanks for playing.

Biggest Snub: A Deadly Adoption (Lifetime) There aren't a lot of good options. I just wanted to remind everyone that this Lifetime movie starring Will Ferrell and Kristen Wiig exists.

Outstanding Variety Talk Series

[My Favorite] Last Week Tonight (HBO) I'm having a very hard time not looking at this as an extension of The Daily Show which dominated with 11 wins over 13 years. It's the buzz-iest show in the list and, from what I've seen of the competition, the funniest and smartest.

The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC) Whoever wins this year, it will be a first time winner*, which is exciting. This is the sixth consecutive year that Jimmy Fallon's show has been nominated (Late Night 2011-2013, The Tonight Show 2014-2016). He's likable. It's popular. It doesn't feel like it's been around as long as it has. All these things help.

*Technically The Tonight Show has won is other forms: with Johnny Carson in 1992 and with Jay Leno in 1995. I'm considering those different shows.

The Late Late Show with James Corden (CBS) He's the new kid in the category. The show has been quite a surprise hit. The 12:30 shows have never won (Not Letterman, not Conan, not Ferguson), so this is definitely an underdog.

Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC) This is the fifth consecutive nomination for Jimmy Kimmel. Again, in a technically open field, anything can happen.

Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee (Crackle) Um, ok. Sure.

Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO) Welcome back, Real Time, after a surprising snub ended its decade-long nomination streak last year. After all this time, I can safely conclude that it's not going to happen.

Biggest Snub: Full Frontal with Samantha Bee (TBS) Did it just premiere too late in the year? Did TBS need to campaign for it harder? I don't know. This is an odd exclusion. I assume it will be fixed  by next year.

Outstanding Variety Sketch Series

Inside Amy Schumer (Comedy Central) It's the same nominees as last year with one show added. Given that consistency, I'll stick with the previous winner. It also won the Directing award at the Creative Arts Emmys.

[My Favorite] Key & Peele (Comedy Central) The farewell season. It happened a long time ago. That can't help. It looks like the only viable alternative to Inside Amy Schumer.

Portlandia (IFC) Had this category existed 4 years ago, it would've won. It's no longer the buzz show. It still the most recent of the remaining nominees to get any Emmy love.

Saturday Night Live (NBC) Too many people are convinced that SNL "isn't as good as it used to be" which is a close relative of "The Superbowl commercials used to be so much better". Regardless of the truth of the statement, the perception is that it's past its sell by date. The only previous wins came in 1976 and 1993 when wins couldn't be denied. There's no chance this season sneaks by.

Documentary Now! (IFC) It's new to the category and new is dangerous. Then again, no one watches IFC.

Drunk History (Comedy Central) It's a fun show that's not nearly loved enough to beat its Comedy Central stable mates.

Biggest Snub: The Meltdown with Jonah and Kumail (Comedy Central) It's the only of the possible snubs that I watched. Thus, I think I have to call it a snub.

Outstanding Reality Competition Series

The Voice (NBC) Five years. Five nominations. 2 wins (2015, 2013). For a category with so many veterans, it's hard to get much better than that.

The Amazing Race (CBS) It's been nominated 13 times (aka since the category was created) and has won 10 times (2003-09, 2011-12, 2014). All those losses have been more recent years. It must be close to being finished.

[My Favorite] American Ninja Warrior (NBC) You don't see new nominees very often. Just as a change of pace vote, this could sneak up. Given the history of the category though, that seems unlikely.

Top Chef (Bravo) Ten straight nominations with a lone win in 2010. That was a while ago though.

Dancing with the Stars (ABC) It's hard to believe this has been on for over a decade (11 nominations in a row). Never a win.

Project Runway (Lifetime) Twelve consecutive, winless nominations. It's not going to happen.

Biggest Snub: RuPaul's Drag Race (Logo) RuPaul finally made it as a nominee for host. Perhaps a long overdue series nomination will follow it next year.

Emmy Picks: Lead Actor and Actress

The Emmys are coming up. If you haven't picked up on how this is done (2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011), it's pretty simple. Over the next few days, I'll be going through all the categories at the Emmys and making my predictions. I've order the nominees from most to least likely to win. I've also included who I believe is the biggest snub in the field and labeled what I will be rooting for on Emmy night.
And the lead roles.

Creative Arts Emmys
Emmy B-Team
Emmy Picks - Writing
Emmy Picks - Directing
Emmy Picks - Supporting Roles

Outstanding Lead Actor – Comedy Series

Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent - Episode: "Man on the Land") (Amazon) The only thing I see getting in Tambor's way to repeat is if there's a feeling of "We took care of that last year". Last year, his 0-6 Emmy record and the zeitgeist-y subject matter of Transparent made Tambor's win the surest bet of the night. This year, he's still the heavy favorite, but it's not the mandate it was before. Excellent submission episode. That can only help.

[My Favorite] Aziz Ansari (Master of None - Episode: "Parents") (Netflix) "Parents" is bringing Master of None far. It's tied to every nomination for the series and it's hard to see how it doesn't come away with a win somewhere. Similar to Louie, I get the feeling that "actor" is the third or fourth job that people will praise Ansari for (1. Writing, 2. Directing, 3 or 4. Acting or Producing). There's also the fear that the parents steal too much attention in the episode.Still, if I'm picking anyone to unseat Tambor, it's the new guy.

Anthony Anderson (blackish - Episode: "Hope") (ABC) This is Anderson's second nomination and "Hope" is a killer submission episode. Had "Hope" received the writing nomination it probably deserved, I'd say Anderson was a real threat to win this award. He still might be, but apparently Emmy voters weren't as enamored with the episode as I would've thought. Or maybe different voting branches will have different reactions.

Thomas Middleditch (Silicon Valley - Episode: "The Empty Chair") (HBO) I still can't believe that he actually got nominated. Last year, I complained that Middleditch's performance was too convincing. The only way to appreciate how good he is in Silicon Valley is to see how he normally is in real life or another role. Somehow he got nominated, but the inability to see his transformation is going to hurt his odds to win.

Will Forte (The Last Man on Earth - Episode: "30 Years of Science Down the Tubes") (FOX) Will Forte gives a deeply committed albeit unlikable performance in The Last Man on Earth. I'm a little shocked that he got the nomination (His second in a row) given how unlikable Phil Miller can be. He gets a wide range of emotions in his submission episode (the season finale). Alas, he is far too divisive to pull off a win.

William H. Macy (Shameless - Episode: "I Only Miss Her When I'm Breathing") (SHO) Here's what I imagine happens when voters watch his submission episode every season:
The voter watches the episode and thinks "William H. Macy was fine in that, but who is that woman?" The voter realizes that the woman is Emmy Rossum. Excitedly, the voter checks the Lead Actress ballot so he/she can vote for Ms. Rossum only to realize that she is once again not even nominated. Frustrated by this realization, the voter declares "I can't vote for William H. Macy. Not when Emmy Rossum can't even get nominated for her work."
What I'm trying to say is, why can't they nominate Emmy Rossum!?!?

Biggest Snub: Andrew Daly (Review) (Comedy Central) Approximately 18 people watch Review on Comedy Center. Andy Daly is never going to be nominated. He's incredible though. It's as dedicated a performance as you will ever see. The show is silly and dark and only works because Daly plays Forrest MacNeil so earnestly.

Outstanding Lead Actress – Comedy Series

[My Favorite] Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep - Episode: "Mother") (HBO) Given the competition for her first four wins on Veep, it would be a shame if she got beat by someone in this group. I don't say that to fault anyone below. It's just, if Amy Poehler gets shut outentirely, what argument does anyone have to win for the work this year. Oh, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus continues to be the gold standard. She will deserve her fifth consecutive win even if she doesn't get it. "Mother" is an ideal submission episode.

Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie - Episode: "The Test") (Netflix) It would take a legend to beat a legend. That's how I look at a scenario in which Julia Louis-Dreyfus doesn't win.

Amy Schumer (Inside Amy Schumer - Episode: "Welcome to the Gun Show") (Comedy Central) Part of me doesn't believe in a sketch performer winning for lead or supporting actor/actress until it happens. Schumer is a two-time nominee, so she's getting the clout to pull off a win. It still doesn't feel like enough.

Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt - Episode: "Kimmy Goes to a Hotel!") (Netflix) Ellie Kemper has a problem similar to Thomas Middleditch on Silicon Valley. Where people have to see him in other roles to appreciate how much of a character he is playing, people would need to see someone else play Kimmy Schmidt to appreciate how vital she is to the show. No one else could be this character. I'd believe in her chances to win a lot more if she'd been nominated last year too.

Laurie Metcalf (Getting On - Episode: "Am I Still Here?") (HBO) Emmy voters have no problem with oddball choices in this category (See Toni Collette in 2009). I don't see how a women from an HBO show wins this who isn't on Veep though.

Tracee Ellis Ross (blackish - Episode: "Sink of Swim?") (ABC) I have no problem with the nomination. What most hurts her odds to win is the submission episode. It's not that great. Ross' character gets to be a little embarrassed, but that's about it. Anthony Anderson gets the bigger moments that I can remember. It's a kind of safe submission pick.

Biggest Snub: Emmy Rossum (Shameless) (SHO) We all know she should be nominated. Voters prove they know about the show by nominating William H. Macy. What's the deal?

Outstanding Lead Actor – Drama Series

Rami Malek (Mr. Robot - Episode: "eps1.0_hellofriend.mov") (USA) It has to be, right? Clearly the show has some love from the voters. You can dispute the writing and directing merits all you want, but Rami Malek is the show. While no one other than Kyle Chandler has even won an Emmy before (for acting), all the other nominees are established and even stuffy. The only winner that is an announcement of any sort is Malek. The pilot is attention-grabbing in a way that the voters typically respond to. Really, everything is working in his favor.

[My Favorite] Matthew Rhys (The Americans - Episode: “The Magic of David Copperfield V: The Statue of Liberty Disappears”) (FX) The most likely alternative is that all Matthew Rhys has needed to win is to get nominated. That now that they have to watch him, they can't deny him. I don't buy into that because it never happens like that. He is really good though, and the last several winners and "runners-up" are all gone.

Kevin Spacey (House of Cards - Episode: "Chapter 52") (Netflix) His chances go down every season. The season 4 finale is solid but Francis Underwood isn't doing anything new. I loved the final shot of the episode, but is that enough to get him a win?

Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul - Episode: "Klick") (AMC) My fear is that Michael McKean may come out of the submission episode looking so good that it's hard to notice Odenkirk.

Kyle Chandler (Bloodline - Episode: "Part 23") (Netflix) He's won in surprising fashion before (See: 2011 for FNL's final season). I haven't heard of anyone who has watched this season of Bloodline (including TV critics) so this is a wild card.

Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan - Episode: "Exsuscito") (SHO) There's a lot of sophomore season nominees this year. I'm not sure which one I'm undervaluing. I can't help but think that Shcreiber is here because of name-value and Showtime politicking.

Biggest Snub: Justin Theroux (The Leftovers) (HBO) Oh, have I not mentioned how good The Leftovers is? How silly of me. It's the best show on TV and Justin Theroux carries a lot of the load of a very taxing series. Just watch "International Assassin" and explain to me how didn't make the cut in this very weak year for the Lead Actor category.

Outstanding Lead Actress – Drama Series

Viola Davis (How to Get Away With Murder - Episode: "There's My Baby") (ABC) There's always good money on the idea that any winner of Lead Actress in a Drama series will win it a second time. Claire Danes did it (2012, 2013). Glen Close did it (2008, 2009). Juluanna Margulies did it with a small break (2011, 2014). Viola Davis feels like a 2-time winner and How to Get Away With Murder isn't the kind of show that will age well with Emmy voters. She does lose some of the progressive vote from last year for being the first black woman to win the award. I doubt that was a substantial part of the vote last year anyway.

[My Favorite] Keri Russell (The Americans - Episode: “The Magic of David Copperfield V: The Statue of Liberty Disappears”) (AMC) For years I was confused by her not getting nominated. She seemed like an obvious pick. Well, she finally made it. I think she's more likely than Rhys to have the "now that they've seen her, they have to give her the win" scenario play out. Although, I need to repeat, that doesn't happen.

Robin Wright (House of Cards - Episode: "Chapter 49") (Netflix) Every year, the Emmy prognosticators talk up her odds of winning and every year she doesn't win. I get why they pick her to win. It feels right. You'd think she would have more than a Golden Globe by now. Part of the losses are her fault. She doesn't choose submission episodes well. That's not the case this year. "Chapter 49" is a great pick to go along with her increased importance as the series continues. The longer she goes without winning though, the harder it is for me to feel good abut her odds.

Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black - Episode: "The Antisocialism of Sex") (SyFy) 2015 is a great example of the "if they just saw her, she'd win" argument. That's what everyone said about Tatiana Maslany (because she's incredible) and she still didn't win last year. There's other factors at play, but nothing has changed to increase her odds. Most of the nominees are back and Keri Russell is added to the mix. It's not looking good for her.

Claire Danes (Homeland - Episode: "Super Powers") (SHO) Now that Homeland is 24 and Carrie Mathison is several years past the point when she should've been fired from the CIA, the bloom is off that rose. It would take an impressive case of vote splitting for Danes to win a third time.

Taraji P. Henson (Empire - Episode: "Rise by Sin") (FOX) Empire stumbled in its second season both creatively and in the ratings. Henson won't win. The big question is if she manages to get a third nomination in 2017.

Biggest Snub: Carrie Coon (The Leftovers) (HBO) Yep. The Leftovers is happening again. Seeing Carrie Coon and Regina King go toe to toe in "Lens" is one of the highlights of the 2016-17 TV season.

Outstanding Lead Actor – Limited Series or TV Movie

[My Favorite] Courtney B. Vance (The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story) (FX) Notice, there's no submission episode. For some reason, the lead categories for limited series or movie enter the full project. That's a lot of work.
While I wouldn't put this at "Lead Actress in a Limited Series"-certainty, this is basically a lock. By my math, it's the third most certain I am about any award.

Bryan Cranston (All the Way) (HBO) Cranston's return to TV since winning Breaking Bad in 2014. Momentum tends to follow actors for nominations (See: Chandler, Kyle), not wins. That said, I don't think a good reason exists for Bryan Cranston to not get all the Emmys.

Benedict Cumberbatch (Sherlock: The Abominable Bride) (PBS) He won the last time there was new Sherlock (2014) in what many considered an upset. That helps his odds this time. It would still be an upset though.

Tom Hiddleston (The Night Manager) (AMC) People like Hiddleston. That helped him get nominated. I think he's too forgotten over Hugh Laurie and Olivia Colman to win.

Idris Elba (Luther) (BBC America) I like that Idris Elba keeps getting nominated. A win isn't going to happen.

Cuba Gooding Jr. (The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story) (FX) If Cuba wins over Courtney B. Vance then I will...I don't even know what. It's such a ridiculous thought that I don't have a retort prepared.

Biggest Snub: Patrick Wilson (Fargo) (FX) & Oscar Isaac (Show Me a Hero) (HBO) I hate to double up the snub, but really, how did this happen? These men are movie stars giving A+ performances. I get that Show Me A Hero was completely ignored. That kind of prepared me for Isaac's snub. But, Wilson? He's the lead on Fargo: a series that gobbled up nominations, including several for his co-stars. How the hell can he get snubbed? I'm completely befuddled.

Outstanding Lead Actress – Limited Series or TV Movie

[My Favorite] Sarah Paulson (The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story) (FX) She's going to win. The biggest lock of the night. I won't complain.

Kirsten Dunst (Fargo) (FX) I was very impressed by Dunst's work on Fargo. I question it being a "lead" performance, which can't help her odds. It doesn't matter though, because Sarah Paulson is going to win.

Kerry Washington (Confirmation) (HBO) People love Kerry Washington. Now that her Lead Actress in a Drama series window has closed, this would be a good way to award her (a la Laura Linney in 2013 - then again, Emmy voters love Laura Linney something fierce). It doesn't matter though, because Sarah Paulson is going to win.

Felicity Huffman (American Crime) (ABC) American Crime had a much improved second season and Felicity Huffman is always great. It doesn't matter though, because Sarah Paulson is going to win.

Lili Taylor (American Crime) (ABC) Two nominations for American Crime. It must've been a really great season. It doesn't matter though, because Sarah Paulson is going to win.

Audra McDonald (Last Day at Emerson's Bar & Grill) (HBO) I'm not sure who she is or what this is. It doesn't matter though, because Sarah Paulson is going to win.

Biggest Snub: Lady Gaga (American Horror Story: Hotel) (FX) I don't know if I'd've nominated her either. This time last year, I would've considered this a lock, probably to win. Awards groups have been very confusing with their responses to Gaga.
...Except for the Golden Globes. Was there any doubt she'd with that Golden Globe? They should name that thing the "Gaga" because it was built for her to win for a show like American Horror Story.